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Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 30 post(s) |
Inora Aknaria
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
29
|
Posted - 2013.10.27 23:02:00 -
[2131] - Quote
Cayell wrote:Timberlake wrote:This is the chance rules :
1/(2^n)
N=number of play (only if you put 50% tickets)
So :
1 blink :
1/2 = 0.5 0.5*100 = 50% for this probability Litteral : There is 50% to happen (loose 1 time)
2 blinks :
1/2*2= 0.25 0.25*100 = 25% Litteral : There is 25% to happen (loose 2 times consecutive)
3 blinks :
1/2*2*2=0.125 0.125*100= 12.5% Litteral : There is 12.5% to happen (loose 3 times consecutive)
12 Blinks :
1/2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2=0,000244140625 0,000244140625*100= 0,0244140625% Litteral : There is 0.024% to happen (loose 12 times consecutive)
So I'm very unlucky ? Or Somer can change the chance ?
I really don't know What you've written there is a perfect example of Gambler's Fallacy - the idea that the probability of winning on a blink is in any way affected by the results of previous blinks. If you flip a coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, it doesn't change the chances of the 10th flip. At all. There is still a 50% chance of either result.
You are right that if you flip a fair coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, the 10th flip still has a 50/50 chance of being tails. But personally if I flipped a coin 9 times I would start wondering if it was a fair coin. To figure out that I would have to see what the chance of flipping a fair coin 9 times and coming up with tails every time was. 1/512 = .195%. If I kept flipping it and getting tails eventually I would have flipped the coin 12 times in a row. That has a 1 in 4,096 chance in happening (P=.00024). That means I could be 99.9% certain that the coin I'm flipping isn't a fair coin at all.
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Lic Skjem
EVE University Ivy League
1
|
Posted - 2013.10.28 00:32:00 -
[2132] - Quote
Inora Aknaria wrote:Cayell wrote:Timberlake wrote:This is the chance rules :
1/(2^n)
N=number of play (only if you put 50% tickets)
So :
1 blink :
1/2 = 0.5 0.5*100 = 50% for this probability Litteral : There is 50% to happen (loose 1 time)
2 blinks :
1/2*2= 0.25 0.25*100 = 25% Litteral : There is 25% to happen (loose 2 times consecutive)
3 blinks :
1/2*2*2=0.125 0.125*100= 12.5% Litteral : There is 12.5% to happen (loose 3 times consecutive)
12 Blinks :
1/2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2=0,000244140625 0,000244140625*100= 0,0244140625% Litteral : There is 0.024% to happen (loose 12 times consecutive)
So I'm very unlucky ? Or Somer can change the chance ?
I really don't know What you've written there is a perfect example of Gambler's Fallacy - the idea that the probability of winning on a blink is in any way affected by the results of previous blinks. If you flip a coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, it doesn't change the chances of the 10th flip. At all. There is still a 50% chance of either result. You are right that if you flip a fair coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, the 10th flip still has a 50/50 chance of being tails. But personally if I flipped a coin 9 times I would start wondering if it was a fair coin. To figure out that I would have to see what the chance of flipping a fair coin 9 times and coming up with tails every time was. 1/512 = .195%. If I kept flipping it and getting tails eventually I would have flipped the coin 12 times in a row. That has a 1 in 4,096 chance in happening (P=.00024). That means I could be 99.9% certain that the coin I'm flipping isn't a fair coin at all.
Unless, of course, you were using a third-party random number generator. Then you'd be 100% certain that you were, actually, flipping a fair coin, and you had just experienced your very first long-tail situation. |
Ona Bender
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
9
|
Posted - 2013.10.28 02:46:00 -
[2133] - Quote
Seriously...the guy who doesn't understand how odds work, and the quoting of ridiculously long posts... Same as anyone complaining about the high rollers winning more often. Anyone got anything real? I know someone does. |
Blodhgarm Dethahal
Transcendent Sedition Dustm3n
53
|
Posted - 2013.10.28 02:57:00 -
[2134] - Quote
Do you have an Infinite Improbibility Drive nearby? -Bl+¦d
Transcendent Sedition is recruiting! Join "TSED Recruitment" chat ingame to talk to us if you are interested in Wormhole life! |
raven666wings
Cyber Chaos Crew
287
|
Posted - 2013.10.28 05:43:00 -
[2135] - Quote
I throw 1 Quadrillion isk at the ho's in the pleasure domes in Amamake. |
JusFooling Around
JusFooling Around Corp
91
|
Posted - 2013.10.28 06:56:00 -
[2136] - Quote
Cyno Fluffer wrote:Hey I love blink, and I have been playing LOTS of promo blinks (15k tickets :)... but I'm getting really pissed... seems that either blink is rigged with shill players... or they are allowing bots... cause all you have to do is watch a promo blink run, ANYTIME of day, and see these two (and many other players) show up OVER and OVER and OVER in the exact same positions...
They appear FIRST before anyone else... anyone else noticing them??
Adam Rez DES Vaille
They drop into position #1-6 in almost EVERY promo... if you gonna shill, at least spend a few minutes to program your bots better.
You say you are talking about promo blinks and then you are talking about promos. Could you be a little more specific? Nothing you have described is particularly difficult to do in a Blink and buying more than one ticket in a promo is impossible.
And if the 6 tickets are in an 8 ticket Blink, the player has 75% of the tickets sold, just the same as if 6 different players bought those same 6 tickets, those 6 tickets represent 75% of the of the chances to win. Buying 6 tickets is not difficult to do and is a regular practice of many players.
Could you explain what leads you to believe that such regular tactics would require shills or bots? Thank you. |
JusFooling Around
JusFooling Around Corp
91
|
Posted - 2013.10.28 07:02:00 -
[2137] - Quote
raven666wings wrote:I throw 1 Quadrillion isk at the ho's in the pleasure domes in Amamake.
Thats nice |
Seven Koskanaiken
Sons Of Saints Circle-Of-Two
419
|
Posted - 2013.10.28 11:57:00 -
[2138] - Quote
Inora Aknaria wrote:Cayell wrote:Timberlake wrote:This is the chance rules :
1/(2^n)
N=number of play (only if you put 50% tickets)
So :
1 blink :
1/2 = 0.5 0.5*100 = 50% for this probability Litteral : There is 50% to happen (loose 1 time)
2 blinks :
1/2*2= 0.25 0.25*100 = 25% Litteral : There is 25% to happen (loose 2 times consecutive)
3 blinks :
1/2*2*2=0.125 0.125*100= 12.5% Litteral : There is 12.5% to happen (loose 3 times consecutive)
12 Blinks :
1/2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2=0,000244140625 0,000244140625*100= 0,0244140625% Litteral : There is 0.024% to happen (loose 12 times consecutive)
So I'm very unlucky ? Or Somer can change the chance ?
I really don't know What you've written there is a perfect example of Gambler's Fallacy - the idea that the probability of winning on a blink is in any way affected by the results of previous blinks. If you flip a coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, it doesn't change the chances of the 10th flip. At all. There is still a 50% chance of either result. You are right that if you flip a fair coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, the 10th flip still has a 50/50 chance of being tails. But personally if I flipped a coin 9 times I would start wondering if it was a fair coin. To figure out that I would have to see what the chance of flipping a fair coin 9 times and coming up with tails every time was. 1/512 = .195%. If I kept flipping it and getting tails eventually I would have flipped the coin 12 times in a row. That has a 1 in 4,096 chance in happening (P=.00024). That means I could be 99.9% certain that the coin I'm flipping isn't a fair coin at all.
The probability of flipping a coin and getting TTTTTTTTT is exactly the same as the probability of getting HTHTTHTTT. |
RangerGord
Rothschild's Sewage and Septic Sucking Services The Possum Lodge
19
|
Posted - 2013.10.29 01:07:00 -
[2139] - Quote
Bump... (since I was so graciously succeeded by the lottery odds dude...)
RangerGord wrote:Silly question, and I can't be the only one...
I've been on Blink for a while, originally put some money (something like 100m or something small), and then liked it and dropped 1b into Blink. Since then I've just been using what I've earned in Blink to keep rolling, occasionally cashing something out if my surplus gets high enough. But today when I clicked for the 1.25Q gift I got an interesting msg:
"Not enough ISK deposited. To open a gift this celebration, you must deposit another 3M."
So it seems we are now required to constantly deposit new ISK if you want to claim any gifts? Did this requirement change since the last one? I even tried winning something and then converting it to Blink credit, no dice :( |
Esppiton
School of Applied Knowledge Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2013.10.29 08:43:00 -
[2140] - Quote
I won plex in promo, but can not get it. Plex located in contracts, the balance of the wallet -1000000000, that GM took my ISK they were stolen quasi... How can i get prize? |
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Frying Doom
2883
|
Posted - 2013.10.29 11:30:00 -
[2141] - Quote
removed. It seemed to mean to tell someone the truth. Any spelling and grammatical errors are because frankly, I don't care!! |
Zyzz Shavershian
The Riot Formation Public Disorder.
6
|
Posted - 2013.10.29 13:48:00 -
[2142] - Quote
Seven Koskanaiken wrote:Inora Aknaria wrote:Cayell wrote:Timberlake wrote:This is the chance rules :
1/(2^n)
N=number of play (only if you put 50% tickets)
So :
1 blink :
1/2 = 0.5 0.5*100 = 50% for this probability Litteral : There is 50% to happen (loose 1 time)
2 blinks :
1/2*2= 0.25 0.25*100 = 25% Litteral : There is 25% to happen (loose 2 times consecutive)
3 blinks :
1/2*2*2=0.125 0.125*100= 12.5% Litteral : There is 12.5% to happen (loose 3 times consecutive)
12 Blinks :
1/2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2=0,000244140625 0,000244140625*100= 0,0244140625% Litteral : There is 0.024% to happen (loose 12 times consecutive)
So I'm very unlucky ? Or Somer can change the chance ?
I really don't know What you've written there is a perfect example of Gambler's Fallacy - the idea that the probability of winning on a blink is in any way affected by the results of previous blinks. If you flip a coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, it doesn't change the chances of the 10th flip. At all. There is still a 50% chance of either result. You are right that if you flip a fair coin 9 times and it lands tails each time, the 10th flip still has a 50/50 chance of being tails. But personally if I flipped a coin 9 times I would start wondering if it was a fair coin. To figure out that I would have to see what the chance of flipping a fair coin 9 times and coming up with tails every time was. 1/512 = .195%. If I kept flipping it and getting tails eventually I would have flipped the coin 12 times in a row. That has a 1 in 4,096 chance in happening (P=.00024). That means I could be 99.9% certain that the coin I'm flipping isn't a fair coin at all. The probability of flipping a coin and getting TTTTTTTTT is exactly the same as the probability of getting HTHTTHTTT.
Nice attempt at trolling there...
....now get out before someone actually starts believing this. |
Ona Bender
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
9
|
Posted - 2013.10.29 14:28:00 -
[2143] - Quote
Heh...it's like being back in grade school.
Flipping a coin 9 times has 2^9 (512) possible outcomes. Not one of those is more probable than another.
TTTTTTTTT is just as likely as HTHHTTHHT - it really, really is. But HTHHTTHHT doesn't mean just some random mix - it's one of the 512 distinct possible outcomes.
You could just as easily claim the following nonsense:
- My result was HTHHTTHHT.
- There's only a 1/512 chance that that outcome could happen.
- Therefore, I can be some made up percent sure the coin isn't fair.
|
Mars OG
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
7
|
Posted - 2013.10.29 16:23:00 -
[2144] - Quote
Frying Doom wrote:removed. It seemed to mean to tell someone the truth. They censored my last post in here, removed the part where I said I hope Somer gets banned if they are found to be engaging in RMT (which it appears they are, to the tune of USD $135k+). Apparently, that was a player attack or something.
edit: BTW Somer, what ever happened to that one guy's 16bil? |
Lucas Kell
JSR1 AND GOLDEN GUARDIAN PRODUCTIONS SpaceMonkey's Alliance
1467
|
Posted - 2013.10.29 16:47:00 -
[2145] - Quote
Somer are likely to be going down soon people. I'd advise to stop cashing in, play all your credit and cash out as soon as possible. There's only a limited amount of time before Somer stop paying out and your balance will be lost. CCP would not be able to reimburse you for a loss due to Somer refusing to pay out. The Indecisive Noob - A new EVE Fan Blog for news and stuff. |
TigerXtrm
Black Thorne Corporation Black Thorne Alliance
218
|
Posted - 2013.10.29 22:12:00 -
[2146] - Quote
Lucas Kell wrote:Somer are likely to be going down soon people. I'd advise to stop cashing in, play all your credit and cash out as soon as possible. There's only a limited amount of time before Somer stop paying out and your balance will be lost. CCP would not be able to reimburse you for a loss due to Somer refusing to pay out.
Shutting down a successful site like SOMER because of a small setback? Highly doubtful. But if they are; please give the site to me. I'll take good care of it, I promise. My YouTube Channel - EVE Tutorials & other game related things! |
Lucas Kell
JSR1 AND GOLDEN GUARDIAN PRODUCTIONS SpaceMonkey's Alliance
1483
|
Posted - 2013.10.29 22:19:00 -
[2147] - Quote
TigerXtrm wrote:Lucas Kell wrote:Somer are likely to be going down soon people. I'd advise to stop cashing in, play all your credit and cash out as soon as possible. There's only a limited amount of time before Somer stop paying out and your balance will be lost. CCP would not be able to reimburse you for a loss due to Somer refusing to pay out. Shutting down a successful site like SOMER because of a small setback? Highly doubtful. But if they are; please give the site to me. I'll take good care of it, I promise. It's successful because they have been running it as a business though RMT. You really think once they lose their income they are going to keep it going? Doubtful. I'm betting that they shill out as much as they can to regular RMT then pack up shop. The Indecisive Noob - A new EVE Fan Blog for news and stuff. |
Nanatoa
380
|
Posted - 2013.10.30 00:52:00 -
[2148] - Quote
Mars OG wrote:edit: BTW Somer, what ever happened to that one guy's 16bil?
After my previous post in this thread I got an ingame message from a Somer representative. We've been exchanging messages, but judging from the direction it is heading I will have to resume my publicity campaign soon(tm). "Stay the course, we have done this many times before." - (CCP) Hilmar, June 2011
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Mars OG
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
9
|
Posted - 2013.10.30 01:08:00 -
[2149] - Quote
TigerXtrm wrote:Lucas Kell wrote:Somer are likely to be going down soon people. I'd advise to stop cashing in, play all your credit and cash out as soon as possible. There's only a limited amount of time before Somer stop paying out and your balance will be lost. CCP would not be able to reimburse you for a loss due to Somer refusing to pay out. Shutting down a successful site like SOMER because of a small setback? Highly doubtful. But if they are; please give the site to me. I'll take good care of it, I promise. A large part of the reason they are successful is because they are making $4-7k a month from affiliate GTC sales. Somer only pays her employees a plex per month so most of that isk will directly benefit her. Once their RMT method is banned, there will likely be a drop in those sales. Furthermore, having had their cash cow taken away by the community, I see no reason why Somer wouldn't become angry and decide **** it, time to really cash out, and just take all the isk and RMT it through a more traditional method. Rather, this being Eve, I would expect it. I'd call losing $4k+ a month of income more than a 'small setback'. |
Mars OG
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
9
|
Posted - 2013.10.30 01:10:00 -
[2150] - Quote
Nanatoa wrote:Mars OG wrote:edit: BTW Somer, what ever happened to that one guy's 16bil? After my previous post in this thread I got an ingame message from a Somer representative. We've been exchanging messages, but judging from the direction it is heading I will have to resume my publicity campaign soon(tm). Don't give up, keep pushing it. Bring it up every single time you possibly can; all it does is expose Somer's lack of ethics when it comes to other people's money. People have noticed their silence in this regard, among other things. |
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Ona Bender
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
9
|
Posted - 2013.10.30 02:26:00 -
[2151] - Quote
CCP don't like the kind of "RMT" that takes money out of their pockets, they aren't against people (especially themselves) legally earning money.
- Pay some random guy REAL MONEY for isk earned in game = BAD (NO money for CCP ).
- Pay CCP REAL MONEY for a PLEX, sell on market for isk = GOOD (YES money for CCP ).
CCP allow 3rd parties to sell GTC. While CCP CAN require them to fix prices, they can't prevent them from having their own affiliate programs.
Now, consider:
- The more GTC the 3rd party sells, the more money in CCP's pockets (money for CCP = GOOD , remember?).
- Blink helps a legal 3rd party to legally sell MORE GTC (more money for CCP = MORE GOOD , see above).
My point is, if there's something going on where Blink are going to get shut down, it's not that. |
Ona Bender
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
9
|
Posted - 2013.10.30 03:18:00 -
[2152] - Quote
So in part 1, we learned that there are 512 different possible outcomes for flipping 9 coins (HHHHHHHHH, HHHHHHHHT, HHHHHHHTH, and so on).
Now, for part 2. Flipping a coin 9 times, and not caring about order but only about the number of H and the number of T, there are 10 possible outcomes - and they have different probabilities. The brute force way to figure these out would be to come up with the 512 possible outcomes described above, and then for each one, count the H and T, and put a tick next to the corresponding outcome below. For example, TTTTTTTTT = 0H, 9T; TTTTTTTTH = 1H, 8T; TTTTTTTHT = 1H, 8T, and so on.
Comes out like this:
9H, 0T = 1; 8H, 1T = 9; 7H, 2T = 36; 6H, 3T = 84; 5H, 4T = 126; 4H, 5T = 126; 3H, 6T = 84; 2H, 7T = 36; 1H, 8T = 9; 0H, 9T = 1 (add those up, there are 512)
So, that can be confusing - but remember, nobody plays like that - you play 2 out of 3, you call each flip - not "two heads and a tails".
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rljpdx
1
|
Posted - 2013.10.30 04:56:00 -
[2153] - Quote
a successful business model benefiting many manufacturing corporations across New Eden...
2113 posts and counting....
apparently a grade A troller too...
just sayin....
:)
rljpdx |
Ona Bender
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
9
|
Posted - 2013.10.30 06:48:00 -
[2154] - Quote
Heya Esppiton. Just wonderin...about how many promos you won? |
Lucas Kell
JSR1 AND GOLDEN GUARDIAN PRODUCTIONS SpaceMonkey's Alliance
1486
|
Posted - 2013.10.30 07:32:00 -
[2155] - Quote
Ona Bender wrote:CCP don't like the kind of "RMT" that takes money out of their pockets, they aren't against people (especially themselves) legally earning money.
- Pay some random guy REAL MONEY for isk earned in game = BAD (NO money for CCP ).
- Pay CCP REAL MONEY for a PLEX, sell on market for isk = GOOD (YES money for CCP ).
CCP allow 3rd parties to sell GTC. While CCP CAN require them to fix prices, they can't prevent them from having their own affiliate programs. Now, consider:
- The more GTC the 3rd party sells, the more money in CCP's pockets (money for CCP = GOOD , remember?).
- Blink helps a legal 3rd party to legally sell MORE GTC (more money for CCP = MORE GOOD , see above).
My point is, if there's something going on where Blink are going to get shut down, it's not that. Right, but the isk incentives don't necessarily mean more sales. They just mean someone who was going to buy a GTC at [insert random site here] now buys through Somer. This means Somer is using it's isk advantage to push sales, and Katarina Reid has demonstrated how effective this can be.
Now once that incentive is gone, since pretty much anyone can be an affiliate, people will be more likely to do friends and corpmates a solid by using their affiliate link to buy a GTC, or support sites they care about. Sure Somer may still get sales, but I doubt very much it will be similar to their current income. And that will make Somer less than pleased with the community. The Indecisive Noob - A new EVE Fan Blog for news and stuff. |
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CCP Eterne
C C P C C P Alliance
2911
|
Posted - 2013.10.30 13:01:00 -
[2156] - Quote
I have removed off-topic, rumor mongering, and other posts from this thread. EVE Online/DUST 514 Community Representative GÇ+ EVE Illuminati GÇ+ Fiction Adept
@CCP_Eterne GÇ+ @EVE_LiveEvents |
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TheGunslinger42
All Web Investigations
2552
|
Posted - 2013.10.30 14:33:00 -
[2157] - Quote
Rumor mongering? You mean the like claiming somer are completely trustworthy and honourable? |
Nanatoa
382
|
Posted - 2013.10.30 15:01:00 -
[2158] - Quote
TheGunslinger42 wrote:Rumor mongering? You mean the like claiming somer are completely trustworthy and honourable?
Somehow my post updating everyone on the situation I raised earlier in this thread was caught up in the cleaning. The good news is that someone from SOMER Blink finally contacted me, the bad news is that they refuse to refund my isk.
They say that they "will not refund ISK used in valid play that has already been won or lost". That's right, for SOMER Blink offering an unique prize, requiring people to play Blinks to enter, then withdrawing that prize, is 'valid play'. Well, I call it 'bait-and-switch'. Not an uncommon scam in EVE, but for the first time ever perpetrated by a "trustworthy and honourable" service endorsed by CCP.
SOMER Blink lays the blame squarely at CCP's feet, though they seem to forget this was their contest and they have my money - they also have to opportunity and means to refund my money, but that's "not possible" because they see bait and switch as valid play. "Stay the course, we have done this many times before." - (CCP) Hilmar, June 2011
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Jack Breacher
Pegusus Rising
2
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Posted - 2013.10.30 15:04:00 -
[2159] - Quote
Can I win something please ?
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Mars OG
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
9
|
Posted - 2013.10.30 15:36:00 -
[2160] - Quote
Nanatoa wrote:TheGunslinger42 wrote:Rumor mongering? You mean the like claiming somer are completely trustworthy and honourable? Somehow my post updating everyone on the situation I raised earlier in this thread was caught up in the cleaning. The good news is that someone from SOMER Blink finally contacted me, the bad news is that they refuse to refund my isk. They say that they "will not refund ISK used in valid play that has already been won or lost". That's right, for SOMER Blink offering an unique prize, requiring people to play Blinks to enter, then withdrawing that prize, is 'valid play'. Well, I call it 'bait-and-switch'. Not an uncommon scam in EVE, but for the first time ever perpetrated by a "trustworthy and honourable" service endorsed by CCP. SOMER Blink lays the blame squarely at CCP's feet, though they seem to forget this was their contest and they have my money - they also have to opportunity and means to refund my money, but that's "not possible" because they see bait and switch as valid play. Yup. They also deleted my posts saying that Somer should be punished the same as any other person caught doing the things she is doing.
Not sure what's so bad about asking the rules be applied fairly to everyone? Too much to ask?
They also deleted my reply to you saying don't give up, you're only showing how Somer lacks ethics when they refuse to return isk taken under false circumstances.
Really, what is 16bil to them? Pennies right? So yes, that definitely shows a lack of ethics and integrity. It's not rumor mongering, it's fact stating.
I would say bait and switch is the complete opposite of trustworthy and honourable. |
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