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Driftfire
Northern Star Enterprises
4
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Posted - 2012.05.01 20:55:00 -
[91] - Quote
Core - Morph was not over supplied by mining before.
To clarify Drone Poo + Mining oversupplied the market. However it was easy for mining to make up the shortfall - which they have done and more..
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
229
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Posted - 2012.05.01 20:58:00 -
[92] - Quote
Sorry, yes, that's what I meant - it was oversupplied from what little mining occurred before, as well as drone poo, and now it's oversupplied again from pure mining.
Re-reading it, my sentence wasn't all that clear the first time |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2989
|
Posted - 2012.05.01 21:06:00 -
[93] - Quote
Driftfire wrote:Core - Morph was not over supplied by mining before.
To clarify Drone Poo + Mining oversupplied the market. However it was easy for mining to make up the shortfall - which they have done and more..
that sort of misses the point: the rise in other minerals, by making people mine grav anoms, will automatically oversupply morphite
it's not that people are mining morphite to make up the shortfall, they're madly mining everything in a grav anom and getting morphite as a byproduct: currently it's valuble, soon it shall be junk |
Lupinus Regaale
Altruism. Brosefs.
0
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Posted - 2012.05.01 21:31:00 -
[94] - Quote
having a good time :)
sold my stack at the peak, buying it again at the low. will wait out the great panic and sell at the next peak. awesome possum! |
Derp Durrr
Syrma Technology
2
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Posted - 2012.05.01 21:37:00 -
[95] - Quote
lol seems like people finally found out the buy orders wouldnt even support one stockpile to be dumped, let alone a hundred... show's over people. might be a few orders left at 8 k for the rest of you |
Driftfire
Northern Star Enterprises
4
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Posted - 2012.05.01 21:52:00 -
[96] - Quote
Well looked at supply vs demand and it was fun while the bubble lasted
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2989
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Posted - 2012.05.01 22:24:00 -
[97] - Quote
the funny part is we even warned you, just because it's always hilarious telling you pubbies the unvarnished truth knowing you won't believe it |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
229
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Posted - 2012.05.01 22:31:00 -
[98] - Quote
Weaselior wrote:the funny part is we even warned you, just because it's always hilarious telling you pubbies the unvarnished truth knowing you won't believe it
can't quote this enough |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
264
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Posted - 2012.05.01 22:49:00 -
[99] - Quote
Can't trick me with your trickesses, goonie goonie goon goons. |
Skydell
Space Mermaids Somethin Awfull Forums
240
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Posted - 2012.05.01 23:15:00 -
[100] - Quote
Hemmo Paskiainen wrote:i gues the real question is how many hours mining it takes per day to keep a large site in system each day... does anyone know?
Null sec mining Ops done right can wipe a morphite site in an hr. It's more to do with who is camping you. I actually expect Morphite to dry up and rise again but more like Megacyte, in a slow steady climb. This latest tank in morphite has all the markings of insider info though. |
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
229
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Posted - 2012.05.01 23:23:00 -
[101] - Quote
Skydell wrote:Hemmo Paskiainen wrote:i gues the real question is how many hours mining it takes per day to keep a large site in system each day... does anyone know? Null sec mining Ops done right can wipe a morphite site in an hr. It's more to do with who is camping you. I actually expect Morphite to dry up and rise again but more like Megacyte, in a slow steady climb. This latest tank in morphite has all the markings of insider info though.
Confirming that goons are behind this and have inside information. |
Driftfire
Northern Star Enterprises
4
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Posted - 2012.05.01 23:28:00 -
[102] - Quote
Or the actions of a lone rogue trader :p |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
229
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Posted - 2012.05.01 23:33:00 -
[103] - Quote
Driftfire wrote:Or the actions of a lone rogue trader :p SHUSH YOU ITS ALWAYS TEH EBIL GOONIES |
Liberty Eternal
Red Federation RvB - RED Federation
70
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Posted - 2012.05.01 23:37:00 -
[104] - Quote
Oh, this is brutal. Never in the history of Jita stupidity have so few lost so much so quickly |
Derek Xallen
Belteaters
0
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Posted - 2012.05.02 00:02:00 -
[105] - Quote
We saw similar things in the interdiction with people unloading stockpiles. And no doubt there would be a lot of drone loot stockpiles that were waiting to see if it would push up to a magical 20k/unit.
If pre-drone nerf volumes are anything to go by, then there's no way that miners could supply the morphite required. However i suspect the morphite consumed is far less than the volumes a particular market site would indicate, so who knows.
The question is how low will the dip be before demand takes back over. Taking a look at a range of T2 module volumes, miners can definitely supply the needed morphite, if they are dedicated enough. Miners being miners, they are also not particularly intelligent when it comes to cherry picking, so you could easily see the morphite price stabilising around 8,000 a unit for a while.
What will be interesting is how long it takes nullsec to start hunting these lvl 4 and 5 industry systems down, and camping them. |
Driftfire
Northern Star Enterprises
4
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Posted - 2012.05.02 00:09:00 -
[106] - Quote
OK - to make it a level playing field some public knowledge: [
Pre Drone Nerf: John TurbefieldGÇÅ@CCP_Diagoras
40,146,724 - units of Morphite from refining in March. : ~1.3mil /day morph supplied. ( this include mining and drone poo )
John TurbefieldGÇÅ@CCP_Diagoras
Mercoxit, daily average for Feb: 381k units. Last 7 days average: 927k units. Up 143.12%. ( 26 April ) From ( Feb ) 807k to ( late april ) 1965k a day.
So since the nerf Morph supply has gone up - a lot!.... |
Ticarus Hellbrandt
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
16
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Posted - 2012.05.02 00:31:00 -
[107] - Quote
Driftfire wrote:OK - to make it a level playing field some public knowledge: [
Pre Drone Nerf: John TurbefieldGÇÅ@CCP_Diagoras
40,146,724 - units of Morphite from refining in March. : ~1.3mil /day morph supplied. ( this include mining and drone poo )
John TurbefieldGÇÅ@CCP_Diagoras
Mercoxit, daily average for Feb: 381k units. Last 7 days average: 927k units. Up 143.12%. ( 26 April ) From ( Feb ) 807k to ( late april ) 1965k a day.
So since the nerf Morph supply has gone up - a lot!....
Guess the question is: how long will the sudden upsurge in interest for mining last? |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
230
|
Posted - 2012.05.02 00:31:00 -
[108] - Quote
Derek Xallen wrote:If pre-drone nerf volumes are anything to go by, then there's no way that miners could supply the morphite required. However i suspect the morphite consumed is far less than the volumes a particular market site would indicate, so who knows.
You're so dead wrong it's not even funny, see the post above me. |
Derek Xallen
Belteaters
0
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Posted - 2012.05.02 00:54:00 -
[109] - Quote
If the volume consumed is only in the 1.5 milion units range, then thats a mere 25-30 mining systems covering the demand. Right now if you look at the map there's a lot more than 30 systems with industry at 3 or above.
Thats a pretty scary thought for anyone holding major stockpiles who took a day off eve. |
Simi Kusoni
HelloKittyFanclub
893
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Posted - 2012.05.02 01:09:00 -
[110] - Quote
Derek Xallen wrote:If the volume consumed is only in the 1.5 milion units range, then thats a mere 25-30 mining systems covering the demand. Right now if you look at the map there's a lot more than 30 systems with industry at 3 or above.
Thats a pretty scary thought for anyone holding major stockpiles who took a day off eve. They are going to be very, very upset when they wake up tomorrow.
Although to be fair, if they were sensible and bought their Morphite back in January-March time then they will still be up, they just won't be selling it at >10k a unit. Should be interesting to see what it settles at though.
"I don't troll, I just give overly blunt responses that annoy people who are wrong but don't want to admit it. It's not my fault that people have sensitive feelings"-á-á-MXZF |
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Skydell
Space Mermaids Somethin Awfull Forums
240
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Posted - 2012.05.02 03:16:00 -
[111] - Quote
The thing with Industry index is, it doesn't make a system have minerals it never had so it's all coming from the same systems it always did. It won't take the cartel's of EVE to figure out what the new Tech moon Sov systems are going to be and start fighting over those systems. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
231
|
Posted - 2012.05.02 04:02:00 -
[112] - Quote
By the end of my rebuttal, no one is going to take you seriously. I hope you know that. I mean, no one took you seriously before, so they'll actually take you LESS seriously.
Back in March, 40 million units of morphite were produced, between mining and drone poo. We can safely assume that this amount is more or less consistent and had been for some time. That gives us a yield of ~1.33 million units per day, and was adequate to keep the price down in the 3-4k level until speculation started spiking it up.
According to the numbers Driftfire cited above, mining over the course of seven days recently - a few weeks back - produced ~1.9 million units of morphite, a considerable oversupply compared to previous levels. We can safely assume that this will tank the price; however, when it drops far enough supply drops off and prices rise, so miners come back, then it drops again, and so on.
After a time, prices reach equilibrium. Lets say for the sake of argument that this is 10k - its a nice round number, after all. Assuming that same earlier 1.9 million units mined, that makes the total monthly value of morphite out to be 570 billion isk, eve-wide.
Now that sounds like a nice fat number. It's really not - it's about half of Goonfleet's monthly technetium income. To make matters worse, unlike Technetium, morphite isn't controlled at the alliance level. Your miners have to mine it, and you can't tax them too heavily, or they simply won't. Naturally, some organizations are more or less generous than others, but lets say the average is 10%. We'll also assume for the naively hopeful sake of argument that miners don't simply skip out to lowsec to refine their ore, and so the corps and alliances involved receive all 10% of their tax.
Now the brighter readers out there have no doubt reached the obvious conclusion, but you seem to be a bit slow, so we'll spell it out. The ten percent tax taken out that is the corp's share is a mere 57 billion isk per month.
Now, 57 billion isk is hardly worth cartelling, is it? Certainly not, especially when controlling a significant portion would require holding enormous swathes of 0.0 space, no easy feat.
"But it's a cartel" you say! "Some mythical 0.0 entity takes over half of space, they control half the morphite supply, they can charge whatever they want!" Well, no, they don't. They control 5% of supply through their taxes. Their miners control the other 45%, and for a variety of reasons, that will make the cartel simply stop working, even without "the other half of Eve" out there. If you want a case study, just look at the old Northern Coalition. Sure Tech went up under them, but those were just normal market forces - an actual cartel, despite collectively controlling as much tech as we do now, was not possible. Imagine that times a thousand and you have our little thought experiment here.
Of course, this pile of words is rather invalidated by the fact that I'm about 99% sure that grav anomalies don't work the way you say anyway. So now you're a laughingstock for TWO reasons. As such, I suggest that, for your own good, you Stop Posting. |
Arugas Koken
Peregrine Guard
16
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Posted - 2012.05.02 05:25:00 -
[113] - Quote
corestwo wrote:Of course, this pile of words is rather invalidated by the fact that I'm about 99% sure that grav anomalies don't work the way you say anyway. So now you're a laughingstock for TWO reasons. As such, I suggest that, for your own good, you Stop Posting.
Corestwo is correct. Grav sites don't work that way. |
Skydell
Space Mermaids Somethin Awfull Forums
240
|
Posted - 2012.05.02 07:17:00 -
[114] - Quote
corestwo wrote:By the end of my rebuttal, no one is going to take you seriously. I hope you know that. I mean, no one took you seriously before, so they'll actually take you LESS seriously.
You took me serious enough that you wrote a 20 minute OCD manifesto. Most of it I didn't read to be honest. There is a thing about mining in EVE. It's really, really, really boring. There is another thing about Null sec mining in EVE. You never do it for yourself. You do it for your corp or alliance. I've done Null mining Ops. I never saw a single mineral from any of them.
I fully expect the price of Morphite to go like a roller coaster for the immediate and extended future. When Null alliances are feeling the pinch, they will brown nose to their members to go out and mine the stuff, take it to Jita and make a payday. When they are high on the hog, they will have their members out doing pew-pew. There is no longer a region of EVE that make bills on Morphite and Zydrine so there is no longer a region of EVE that will, through necessity keep the markets of New Eden supplied in Morphite. Because it isn't passive like Moon Goo it isn't quite as easy to just roll it out to Jita and get a fat pay day. This is why, MoonSwarm boy, nobody takes- You - serious. You don't do well at thinking like or speaking for the other 99% of EVE who don't have Technetium based wallets. |
Simi Kusoni
HelloKittyFanclub
897
|
Posted - 2012.05.02 10:11:00 -
[115] - Quote
Current price dip is just market manipulation, if you have any sense you'll just buy up their underpriced minerals and troll them a little. I already did this last night, and had one of them private convo and ask me to stop so he could continue trying to force the price to drop.
Me being an absolute douchebag, I refused and bought a little bit more just to troll him. Chat logs for anyone interested:
Quote:[ 2012.05.02 02:27:12 ] Simi Kusoni > ? n++[ 2012.05.02 02:27:50 ] x > hi n++[ 2012.05.02 02:27:58 ] x > how you doing moneybags? n++[ 2012.05.02 02:28:31 ] x > or maybe not so much now, lol n++[ 2012.05.02 02:28:48 ] Simi Kusoni > not bad thank you, although I'd say you certainly have quite a bit of isk yourself since I just bought a bit of zydrine off you :) n++[ 2012.05.02 02:29:06 ] x > I bought it at 700 n++[ 2012.05.02 02:29:13 ] x > you bought it at double what I paid n++[ 2012.05.02 02:29:29 ] Simi Kusoni > Aye, I have quite a bit too. Been buying zydrine and morphite since january :) n++[ 2012.05.02 02:29:55 ] x > you might want to let the market crash for a bit before you buy it all up n++[ 2012.05.02 02:30:10 ] Simi Kusoni > market started to raise, so I bought it up n++[ 2012.05.02 02:30:10 ] x > I mean c'mon, this downward trend will be temporary n++[ 2012.05.02 02:30:24 ] Simi Kusoni > Plus I'm off to bed, so won't be able to mess with market for another day or so :P n++[ 2012.05.02 02:30:30 ] x > dude, the people with the money make the market n++[ 2012.05.02 02:30:50 ] x > right now, you're a normalizing trend and that isn't good n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:09 ] Simi Kusoni > Aye, I'd have let morph and zydrine keep spiralling down if I wasn't about to log off for a few days :) n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:13 ] x > people can't make money off of the peaks and valleys if more people like you keep doing this n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:31 ] x > yeah I don't believe you n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:36 ] x > well take care n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:41 ] Simi Kusoni > I'm not particularly bothered n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:44 ] x > thanks for the isk n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:44 ] Simi Kusoni > fly safe o7
If you go down the list of sell orders in jita atm they're still trying to do it, or maybe different people now. Same guy is responsible for almost all the sell orders, and he is undercutting himself repeatedly by a considerable margin and posting loads of Zydrine in small bunches.
Bad attempt at market manipulation is bad. Wonder how much these guys lost. Also, morphite lowest sold is 1,000 ISK this morning? Someone selling a bit to themselves to try and lower the average, or did they really put some up at such a ******** price?
"I don't troll, I just give overly blunt responses that annoy people who are wrong but don't want to admit it. It's not my fault that people have sensitive feelings"-á-á-MXZF |
Lfod Shi
Lfod's Ratting and Salvage
15
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Posted - 2012.05.02 11:20:00 -
[116] - Quote
Nothing is stable. Inferno has only just begun. There's gonna be more surprises coming down the pike. GÖ¬ They'll always be bloodclaws to me GÖ½ |
papamike
Precipice Industries
24
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Posted - 2012.05.02 11:28:00 -
[117] - Quote
Simi Kusoni wrote:Current price dip is just market manipulation, if you have any sense you'll just buy up their underpriced minerals and troll them a little. I already did this last night, and had one of them private convo and ask me to stop so he could continue trying to force the price to drop. Me being an absolute douchebag, I refused and bought a little bit more just to troll him. Chat logs for anyone interested: Quote:[ 2012.05.02 02:27:12 ] Simi Kusoni > ? n++[ 2012.05.02 02:27:50 ] x > hi n++[ 2012.05.02 02:27:58 ] x > how you doing moneybags? n++[ 2012.05.02 02:28:31 ] x > or maybe not so much now, lol n++[ 2012.05.02 02:28:48 ] Simi Kusoni > not bad thank you, although I'd say you certainly have quite a bit of isk yourself since I just bought a bit of zydrine off you :) n++[ 2012.05.02 02:29:06 ] x > I bought it at 700 n++[ 2012.05.02 02:29:13 ] x > you bought it at double what I paid n++[ 2012.05.02 02:29:29 ] Simi Kusoni > Aye, I have quite a bit too. Been buying zydrine and morphite since january :) n++[ 2012.05.02 02:29:55 ] x > you might want to let the market crash for a bit before you buy it all up n++[ 2012.05.02 02:30:10 ] Simi Kusoni > market started to raise, so I bought it up n++[ 2012.05.02 02:30:10 ] x > I mean c'mon, this downward trend will be temporary n++[ 2012.05.02 02:30:24 ] Simi Kusoni > Plus I'm off to bed, so won't be able to mess with market for another day or so :P n++[ 2012.05.02 02:30:30 ] x > dude, the people with the money make the market n++[ 2012.05.02 02:30:50 ] x > right now, you're a normalizing trend and that isn't good n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:09 ] Simi Kusoni > Aye, I'd have let morph and zydrine keep spiralling down if I wasn't about to log off for a few days :) n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:13 ] x > people can't make money off of the peaks and valleys if more people like you keep doing this n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:31 ] x > yeah I don't believe you n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:36 ] x > well take care n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:41 ] Simi Kusoni > I'm not particularly bothered n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:44 ] x > thanks for the isk n++[ 2012.05.02 02:31:44 ] Simi Kusoni > fly safe o7 If you go down the list of sell orders in jita atm they're still trying to do it, or maybe different people now. Same guy is responsible for almost all the sell orders, and he is undercutting himself repeatedly by a considerable margin and posting loads of Zydrine in small bunches. Bad attempt at market manipulation is bad. Wonder how much these guys lost. Also, morphite lowest sold is 1,000 ISK this morning? Someone selling a bit to themselves to try and lower the average, or did they really put some up at such a ******** price?
Very much hoping this is accurate otherwise I'll put my hand up as being one other sheep who didnt see this coming. I was under the impression that morph would spike and then settle around 18k
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
231
|
Posted - 2012.05.02 13:03:00 -
[118] - Quote
Skydell wrote:You took me serious enough that you wrote a 20 minute OCD manifesto. Most of it I didn't read to be honest. There is a thing about mining in EVE. It's really, really, really boring. There is another thing about Null sec mining in EVE. You never do it for yourself. You do it for your corp or alliance. I've done Null mining Ops. I never saw a single mineral from any of them.
I fully expect the price of Morphite to go like a roller coaster for the immediate and extended future. When Null alliances are feeling the pinch, they will brown nose to their members to go out and mine the stuff, take it to Jita and make a payday. When they are high on the hog, they will have their members out doing pew-pew. There is no longer a region of EVE that make bills on Morphite and Zydrine so there is no longer a region of EVE that will, through necessity keep the markets of New Eden supplied in Morphite. Because it isn't passive like Moon Goo it isn't quite as easy to just roll it out to Jita and get a fat pay day. This is why, MoonSwarm boy, nobody takes- You - serious. You don't do well at thinking like or speaking for the other 99% of EVE who don't have Technetium based wallets. if you believe a word you typed here, you've lived in some really lousy null alliances, because I can't think of a time ever when goonfleet as a whole has had mandatory mining ops where the entire bounty goes to the corp.
i'll be sure to tell theta squad that no one voluntarily mines for themselves though. they'll be thrilled to know that they shouldn't actually be making 70-100m/hr.
ps - you're still wrong about how anomalies work |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2990
|
Posted - 2012.05.02 13:25:00 -
[119] - Quote
Skydell wrote: I fully expect the price of Morphite to go like a roller coaster for the immediate and extended future. When Null alliances are feeling the pinch, they will brown nose to their members to go out and mine the stuff, take it to Jita and make a payday.
no they wont you idiot because that won't make the alliance a cent |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2990
|
Posted - 2012.05.02 13:27:00 -
[120] - Quote
Skydell wrote:The thing with Industry index is, it doesn't make a system have minerals it never had so it's all coming from the same systems it always did. It won't take the cartel's of EVE to figure out what the new Tech moon Sov systems are going to be and start fighting over those systems. this is literally the stupidest thing I have read in days on these forums go back to your shame hole
the entire point of industry upgrades is they can be put anywhere in 0.0 and are the same anywhere: the mining anoms have a specific setup and group of asteroids that does not vary |
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