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Jas Dor
Republic University Minmatar Republic
82
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Posted - 2012.03.29 00:38:00 -
[1] - Quote
So the Goons want to do a suicide interdiction of Jita.
In past 24 hours Jita had 45000 jumps.
Lets half that for number of unique players. That gives us 22,500 jumps.
Lets figure 10% of those are "high value targets" (I'd personally put the number at more like 20% but ok). That means an average of 94 high value jump ins an hour
Lets figure the goons want to kill at least 10% of that number. We'll make this 10 deaths an hours.
Jita is a 0.9 system. A ship can normally get off one, but not two, volleys before getting concorded.
A T2 fit tornado Alphas about 11K with all skills V. A T1 fit alphas around 8000. A freighter has 200,000 EHP requiring 25 ships for the kill. A freighter has less EHP than a properly tanked Orca (by far the most common ship type around Jita these days).
This gives a minimum T1 fit op tempo of at least 250 ships/hour or 6000 ships/day. Assuming a cost of 50m ship this will give us a daily burn rate of 3 Trillion isk/day. Some of this will be offset by loot drops. Lets say half. The goon supposedly have a monthly income of around 1.5 trillion. If they have saved for this for six months, then burn Jita could run for about six days.
Keep in mind this is assuming a low ball ship costs, max skills and a descent recovery rate. All of this to blow up one in every hundred ships heading into Jita.
Conclusion: In a fight between the goons and the market, bet on the market. |
OfBalance
Caldari State
308
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Posted - 2012.03.29 00:39:00 -
[2] - Quote
You're assuming that your opponent cares about loosing isk. |
Liberty Eternal
Taggart Transdimensional Virtue of Selfishness
38
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Posted - 2012.03.29 00:46:00 -
[3] - Quote
OfBalance wrote:You're assuming that your opponent cares about loosing isk.
From what I've seen, Goons take this game way more seriously than anyone else. So it's likely that they do care about losing isk.
Also, all those ships etc have to be bought from somewhere. I wonder where... |
Rengerel en Distel
Tadakastu-Obata Corporation The Honda Accord
21
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Posted - 2012.03.29 00:49:00 -
[4] - Quote
You can find killmails where it takes less than a dozen ships to kill a freighter. If their whole alliance and other griefers really want to destroy everyone, they'll do it. They'll make the isk back just controlling the markets in the other regions.
Don't assume bad intent, when stupidity is the much more likely cause. |
Aurel Svenson
Cyclone Solutions
4
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Posted - 2012.03.29 00:50:00 -
[5] - Quote
Liberty Eternal wrote:OfBalance wrote:You're assuming that your opponent cares about loosing isk. From what I've seen, Goons take this game way more seriously than anyone else. So it's likely that they do care about losing isk. Also, all those ships etc have to be bought from somewhere. I wonder where...
Wooo, business! :D (Though the guy I'm selling to has the right to only take part of the order, boo @ agreements). |
Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
329
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Posted - 2012.03.29 00:50:00 -
[6] - Quote
Jas Dor wrote:In past 24 hours Jita had 45000 jumps.
Half it for jumping in, and jumping out. Probably not too many people passing through, so we can ignore that.
So a cap of 22,500 players.
But you'll have a bunch of those being freighters doing runs. so you'll have to reduce it further.
And if they start up an interdiction, people will stay away, rather than risk losing their freighter. BRs, maybe. Maybe.
So stocks will fall. So the number of people turning up will fall. (and people being ganked will stay way. And spread that word)
It's doable.
Will it last? Probably not. They move out, people return. The position is convenient. But it's doable short term. I don't doubt that. FuzzWork Enterprises http://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/ Blueprint calculator and other 'useful' utilities. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
106
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Posted - 2012.03.29 00:55:00 -
[7] - Quote
You're cute. |
Ocih
Space Mermaids Somethin Awfull Forums
125
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Posted - 2012.03.29 01:39:00 -
[8] - Quote
They will dilate the system on entry. My guess is they will hit the IV 4 station and anything they can get a lock on between dilation and that target. |
Sturmwolke
151
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Posted - 2012.03.29 01:55:00 -
[9] - Quote
It's not really an issue per se. Just run logi escort fleet if you really need to get through. May even drum up temp business for corps does the escort service.
Amarr's not that far away anyway, it'll serve as backup hub in the remote case SHTF. They can't keep it up forever.
Now the next question here, who's profiting? |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
131
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Posted - 2012.03.29 02:07:00 -
[10] - Quote
I'm an the fence about its success.
Regardless, your analysis is way off. How much of what do they need to kill to shut down traffic? Answer that, then see if they can do it.
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Jas Dor
Republic University Minmatar Republic
82
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Posted - 2012.03.29 02:28:00 -
[11] - Quote
Rengerel en Distel wrote:You can find killmails where it takes less than a dozen ships to kill a freighter. If their whole alliance and other griefers really want to destroy everyone, they'll do it. They'll make the isk back just controlling the markets in the other regions.
Yes, it take less than a dozen T2 fit ships to kill a freighter in a 0.5 system where each attacking ship can cycle its guns twice. That is a large difference from a 0.9 system with concord on grid. Also I am assuming T1 fits as I don't think an invention based supply chain can keep up with that op tempo (could be wrong on that).
The Mittani has called for 1,800 fit tornados. Assuming a T2 fit that will allow him to kill 90 freighter in Jita. That'll be an hour of glory but it'll hardly burn Jita to the ground. Hell, even if the goon decided to use those ships to get one ship/one shot kills on industrials they could not even kill 10% of one days total traffic through Jita.
Whomever thought this up failed to look at the jump totals for Jita on Dotlan.
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Revii Lagoon
The Foreign Legion Test Alliance Please Ignore
53
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Posted - 2012.03.29 02:31:00 -
[12] - Quote
~Jita shall burn~
~Deal with it~ |
Jas Dor
Republic University Minmatar Republic
82
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Posted - 2012.03.29 02:42:00 -
[13] - Quote
Revii Lagoon wrote:~Jita shall burn~
~Deal with it~
Those jump numbers include a Tuesday and a patch. I expect your announcement will be good for Orca sales, nothing more. |
Lenrir Andven
Merch Industrial Goonswarm Federation
67
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Posted - 2012.03.29 02:45:00 -
[14] - Quote
Liberty Eternal wrote:OfBalance wrote:You're assuming that your opponent cares about loosing isk. From what I've seen, Goons take this game way more seriously than anyone else. So it's likely that they do care about losing isk. Also, all those ships etc have to be bought from somewhere. I wonder where...
We are given money for getting our ships horribly burned and destroyed into space dust.
You are far...way far...from the truth citizen. |
Raiz Nhell
DEEP CORPS
54
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Posted - 2012.03.29 03:02:00 -
[15] - Quote
Jita might not burn... But its going to be fun watching the fire starters...
I just hope that it actually happens, cause I have my doubts... I'm so carebear my Pod bleeds rainbow...
Beers + nullsec + dodgy fit = Loss mail |
Ave Volta
Black Frog Logistics Red-Frog
20
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Posted - 2012.03.29 03:13:00 -
[16] - Quote
I don't care who's ships and being blown up at a greater rate. It's all good for the economy
Black Frog Logistics - Lowsec/Nullsec Logistics Services. Join ingame channel 'Black Frog' for more info.
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Jas Dor
Republic University Minmatar Republic
82
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Posted - 2012.03.29 03:44:00 -
[17] - Quote
Ave Volta wrote:I don't care who's ships and being blown up at a greater rate. It's all good for the economy
Did you really mean to post that under the corp/alliance ticker that you used? |
Shar Tegral
124
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Posted - 2012.03.29 05:00:00 -
[18] - Quote
Ave Volta wrote:I don't care who's ships and being blown up at a greater rate. It's all good for the economy Jas Dor wrote:Did you really mean to post that under the corp/alliance ticker that you used? If she didn't I'll be happy to sign the statement.
Don't care whose ships are being blown up at a greater rate. Unlike real life, it actually is good for the economy.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
106
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Posted - 2012.03.29 05:06:00 -
[19] - Quote
Sturmwolke wrote:It's not really an issue per se. Just run logi escort fleet if you really need to get through. May even drum up temp business for corps does the escort service.
Amarr's not that far away anyway, it'll serve as backup hub in the remote case SHTF. They can't keep it up forever.
Now the next question here, who's profiting?
You don't understand the concept of "massive alpha", do you?
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enterprisePSI
86
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Posted - 2012.03.29 05:31:00 -
[20] - Quote
I support any force that brings destruction in Eve. The tears of the many, outweight the tears of the few. Or the one.
-«enterprise-psi |
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Skye Aurorae
No Bull Ships
222
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Posted - 2012.03.29 06:24:00 -
[21] - Quote
I'm sure that goonswam will sell you 'jita gate licenses' so you can negotiate a payment for safe passage. Skye Aurora is a 7 year old Girl Who Wants to be on the CSM! Unfortunately, the Lawyers say you have to be 21, so..
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Pippgirl
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
0
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Posted - 2012.03.29 08:15:00 -
[22] - Quote
Jita will burn. And it will be camped, so people will generally not undock or jump into system. We will also likely see that once Jita is camped, the campaign will spill over to the other tradehubs, at least in prime times. |
Emma d'Acques
Ortog Promethium Industries
3
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Posted - 2012.03.29 09:25:00 -
[23] - Quote
Oh, Jita will burn, of that I am sure. I think it's more a question of "Will CCP be prepared for it? Will we finally have windows in our CQ's?" |
Sturmwolke
152
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Posted - 2012.03.29 11:00:00 -
[24] - Quote
corestwo wrote: You don't understand the concept of "massive alpha", do you?
Depends on how the logis handle them, the "massive alpha" is not a guarantee. Also consider defensive fleet boosters.
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Pippgirl
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
0
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Posted - 2012.03.29 11:10:00 -
[25] - Quote
Sturmwolke wrote:corestwo wrote: You don't understand the concept of "massive alpha", do you?
Depends on how the logis handle them, the "massive alpha" is not a guarantee. Also consider defensive fleet boosters.
Its pretty naive to think that anyone can fend off a massive alpha from angry angry CFC without being a major alliance/ coalition used to huuuuge fleet battles. If you are in their way, you will be toast. Simple. :) |
Sturmwolke
153
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Posted - 2012.03.29 11:24:00 -
[26] - Quote
Pippgirl wrote:Its pretty naive to think that anyone can fend off a massive alpha from angry angry CFC ... Don't get me wrong. Tactics flow like water (if you understand that term). You're thinking in static terms.
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Mookie Quantico
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
16
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Posted - 2012.03.29 12:17:00 -
[27] - Quote
Jas Dor wrote:So the Goons want to do a suicide interdiction of Jita..
Beats the hell out of spinning... which is what most of Jita does anyway... I for one welcome this event if for no other reason than sheer entertainment value.
Mook
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Kara Roideater
Perkone Caldari State
123
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Posted - 2012.03.29 13:56:00 -
[28] - Quote
Whilst 'Burn Jita' is a great idea, isn't the appropriate counter-tactic just for enemies of the Goons (null-sec and otherwise) to fly empty Orcas and T1 indy ships in and out of Jita all day long and collect a significant isk loss ratio win? |
Jarnis McPieksu
382
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Posted - 2012.03.29 14:12:00 -
[29] - Quote
They do not need to suicide gank that many ships. Only enough that people stop jumping into Jita due to too high risk of a pricy Freighter/hauler loss.
Word will spread quickly, Jita commerce will be severely impacted and at that point those few clueless idiots that still do jump in can be ganked with fairly small effort.
(This of course all assumes Goons do what they claim they'll do... but otherwise it is fairly easy to predict the outcome of the planned action)
As to what happens after that will be the interesting bit... how long Goons keep it up? How will the market react? Will manufacturers and raw material producers start selling stuff at next door system? What will CCP do when the carebears (predictably) being their whine concert over the ganks?
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Veeil
Infinite Improbability Inc Mordus Angels
0
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Posted - 2012.03.29 14:37:00 -
[30] - Quote
I like how you guys think you have a clue.
As much as this event will hurt myself and my own, +2 for bringing change to EVE |
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