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Doddy
Excidium. Executive Outcomes
57
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Posted - 2012.03.29 14:59:00 -
[1] - Quote
Jas Dor wrote:So the Goons want to do a suicide interdiction of Jita.
In past 24 hours Jita had 45000 jumps.
Lets half that for number of unique players. That gives us 22,500 jumps.
Lets figure 10% of those are "high value targets" (I'd personally put the number at more like 20% but ok). That means an average of 94 high value jump ins an hour
Lets figure the goons want to kill at least 10% of that number. We'll make this 10 deaths an hours.
Jita is a 0.9 system. A ship can normally get off one, but not two, volleys before getting concorded.
A T2 fit tornado Alphas about 11K with all skills V. A T1 fit alphas around 8000. A freighter has 200,000 EHP requiring 25 ships for the kill. A freighter has less EHP than a properly tanked Orca (by far the most common ship type around Jita these days).
This gives a minimum T1 fit op tempo of at least 250 ships/hour or 6000 ships/day. Assuming a cost of 50m ship this will give us a daily burn rate of 3 Trillion isk/day. Some of this will be offset by loot drops. Lets say half. The goon supposedly have a monthly income of around 1.5 trillion. If they have saved for this for six months, then burn Jita could run for about six days.
Keep in mind this is assuming a low ball ship costs, max skills and a descent recovery rate. All of this to blow up one in every hundred ships heading into Jita.
Conclusion: In a fight between the goons and the market, bet on the market.
You forget about a) all the individuals wallets, b) all the non goon groups taking part, c) goons bet heavily on themselves on the market before anouncing anything so are probably raking in the isk at the same time, d) fear (and speculation) is the main weapon not 1400s, e) Huge numbers of high value targets will not be freighters requiring 25 tornados to die.
People will not jump into Jita if the expect to be ganked, that is the goons aim.
Finally if 1000 CFC plus whatever randoms join in can only pop 10 ships an hour they are doing something very wrong. |
Doddy
Excidium. Executive Outcomes
57
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Posted - 2012.03.29 15:02:00 -
[2] - Quote
6000 ships a day at 50 million each 300 billion anyway not 3 trillion, only out by a factor of ten |
Doddy
Excidium. Executive Outcomes
57
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Posted - 2012.03.29 15:12:00 -
[3] - Quote
Sturmwolke wrote:corestwo wrote: You don't understand the concept of "massive alpha", do you?
Depends on how the logis handle them, the "massive alpha" is not a guarantee.
You don't undesrtand the concept of alpha at all in fact. The concept of alpha ignores logis.
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Doddy
Excidium. Executive Outcomes
57
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Posted - 2012.03.29 15:13:00 -
[4] - Quote
Jas Dor wrote:Ave Volta wrote:I don't care who's ships and being blown up at a greater rate. It's all good for the economy Did you really mean to post that under the corp/alliance ticker that you used?
Red Frog is Mittanis alt corp, they will be the only freighters alowed in and out of Jita. Prices will sadly have to rise however.
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Doddy
Excidium. Executive Outcomes
57
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Posted - 2012.03.29 15:38:00 -
[5] - Quote
Darronis Olachenko wrote:I think it was a big mistake for them to reveal their plans to begin with. If they really wanted maximum effect they shouldn't have said a word, or perhaps even just hinted at something but kept the details tight lipped. Now the only people that will be left in Jita when the end of April rolls around will be those completely oblivious. While I'm sure even that number will be higher than I expect, most people will just shrug and move to Amarr or whatever and continue going about their business.
In the very unlikely event that would happen its not like amarr is far away from Jita is it? Pretty sure in U.s peak when there are more goons in JIta than non goons there will be sub cfleets elsewhere.
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Doddy
Excidium. Executive Outcomes
59
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Posted - 2012.03.30 14:35:00 -
[6] - Quote
Jas Dor wrote:I just want to clarify a few things. I'm not saying that Jita burning is morally or ethically wrong. I'm simply saying that I don't think you have the logistics to interdict the level of traffic going through Jita, and didn't properly run the numbers before thinking out this plan.
And your maths is terrible, you mistook 300 billion for 3 trillion and discounted everything other than goon tech income when calculating the available wealth to make this happen.
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