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Spurty
D00M. Northern Coalition.
232
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Posted - 2012.04.14 17:57:00 -
[151] - Quote
Quote:definition of risk is the 'effect of uncertainty on objectives'. In this definition, uncertainties include events (which may or not happen) and uncertainties caused by ambiguity or a lack of information. It also includes both negative and positive impacts on objectives
The only risk (uncertaincy) a ganker deals with is the loot that drops. They are doing it for the loot right? Not to E-grief? That would be lame and a waste of play time for all involved
---- CONCORD arrested two n00bs yesterday, one was drinking battery acid, the other was eating fireworks. They charged one and let the other one off. |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
6092
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 18:18:00 -
[152] - Quote
Karl Hobb wrote:Tippia, you know a miner or Tengu pilot would never actually try to fight back, right? That's not a risk the suicide ganker takes. I know that the risk is small. It's in the list anyway and is interesting to figure out.
Jorma Morkkis wrote:It's you who say those aren't actual risks. Nope. You're the one who's saying that, so I'm asking you: care to explain why they aren't actual risks by the standard definition?
MatrixSkye Mk2 wrote:Tippia, You're attempting to hold on to strings so you can justify suicide ganking as a "risky" profession. Nope. I'm holding on to a well-established, long-used, and very solid definition of risk to generate a list of the risks a ganker might face. The actual riskiness of the profession is left unanswered, but the simple fact that it's not risk-free is enough of a start, since that's such a common and such a silly claim.
Spurty wrote:The only risk (uncertaincy) No. I'm going to have to cut you off right there. Risk is not the same thing as uncertainty. Risk is an attempt to quantify how probabilities affect costs (and gains). GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Find more rants over at Tippis' Rants. |
Jorma Morkkis
State War Academy Caldari State
11
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Posted - 2012.04.14 18:32:00 -
[153] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Nope. You're the one who's saying that, so I'm asking you: care to explain why they aren't actual risks by the standard definition?
I have never said buying stocks or other investments aren't risks.
For you risk always includes 100% loss of investment. That's the difference between your world and real world. |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
6092
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 18:37:00 -
[154] - Quote
Jorma Morkkis wrote:For you risk always includes 100% loss of investment. That's the difference between your world and real world. Ok, then you should probably go back to the post that gave you that impression (and please provide a link so I can see if I can make it clearer), because that's not what I said.
I said that, like all investments, the losing your ship in a suicide gank is a risk, even though you're looking at a 100% probability of initial loss when you're doing that. I'm not saying that all investments are like that GÇö I'm saying that this particular investment is like that. GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Find more rants over at Tippis' Rants. |
Jorma Morkkis
State War Academy Caldari State
11
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Posted - 2012.04.14 18:43:00 -
[155] - Quote
Tippia wrote:I said that, like all investments, the losing your ship in a suicide gank is a risk, even though you're looking at a 100% probability of initial loss when you're doing that. I'm not saying that all investments are like that GÇö I'm saying that this particular investment is like that.
Risk =/= Certainty |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
6092
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 18:47:00 -
[156] - Quote
Jorma Morkkis wrote:Risk =/= Certainty GǪwhich no-one is saying.
Risk = probability +ù cost. If you're certain (probability = 1), then risk = 1+ù cost. Just because you're certain doesn't mean it's no longer a risk. Instead, it means the risk is at its maximum value. GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Find more rants over at Tippis' Rants. |
Jorma Morkkis
State War Academy Caldari State
11
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Posted - 2012.04.14 19:15:00 -
[157] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Jorma Morkkis wrote:Risk =/= Certainty GǪwhich no-one is saying. Risk = probability +ù cost. If you're certain (probability = 1), then risk = 1+ù cost. Just because you're certain doesn't mean it's no longer a risk. Instead, it means the risk is at its maximum value.
If you lose 100% of your investment and gain something at the same time it's not a risk. |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
6092
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 19:21:00 -
[158] - Quote
Jorma Morkkis wrote:If you lose 100% of your investment and gain something at the same time it's not a risk. Sure it is. See the previous discussion of combined risks and negative costs. How large that risk is, and what sign it ends up having, will depend on the gain it the probabilities of it happening.
GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Find more rants over at Tippis' Rants. |
Harrigan VonStudly
The Generic Pirate Corporation Fusion.
19
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Posted - 2012.04.14 19:29:00 -
[159] - Quote
Jorma Morkkis wrote:Tippia wrote:Jorma Morkkis wrote:Risk =/= Certainty GǪwhich no-one is saying. Risk = probability +ù cost. If you're certain (probability = 1), then risk = 1+ù cost. Just because you're certain doesn't mean it's no longer a risk. Instead, it means the risk is at its maximum value. If you lose 100% of your investment and gain something at the same time it's not a risk.
If I risk my entire life savings on the stock market and lose it all. Every penny leaving me flat broke BUT I gained a life lesson; are you saying I did not take a risk because I gained some sort of a life experience? |
EVE Stig
Imperial Academy Amarr Empire
121
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 19:39:00 -
[160] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Tippia wrote: Nitpicking aside
Pot met kettle?
yah thats a joke right tippia?
"Some say that he is actually dead, but the Grim Reaper is too afraid to tell him." "Some say he is the 3rd member of Daft Punk and he did the vocals of "Technologic" song. All we know is,he's called EVE Stig"! |
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EVE Stig
Imperial Academy Amarr Empire
121
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 19:42:00 -
[161] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Tippia wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:They also forgot to buff exhumers tank when they buffed destroyers to become better at (real) PvP. Would you petition that too? Of course not. Why would you petition if something that never was intended to happen doesn't happen? How do you know? There's examples of half done CCP implementations that were "forgotten" for years. Pax Amarria still capping Nocx anyone? Then one day minerals markets pressure happened and they changed it.
the feature turned bug of your skills still training when your account ran out of time...
"Some say that he is actually dead, but the Grim Reaper is too afraid to tell him." "Some say he is the 3rd member of Daft Punk and he did the vocals of "Technologic" song. All we know is,he's called EVE Stig"! |
Herr Wilkus
Aggressive Salvage Services LLC Tear Extraction And Reclamation Service
300
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 19:42:00 -
[162] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Herr Wilkus wrote: You are a ganker, flying a 15M ISK Catalyst. The simple nature of drop mechanics means that your costs are highly variable - (anywhere from 1 Million to 15M) - isn't that a 'risk', even by your flawed definition?
No, because I have signed off 15M, not 1 to 15M. If I feel to pour in more :effort: I can calculate the average (close to 50%) of mods being dropped minus the hull cost. Pre-scanning the target also helps at selecting worthwhile opportunities vs bad ones.
I'm just pointing out that you can completely forget about the miner, and whether or not you succeed in your efforts. Risk exists in the simple action of 'expending' your suicide ship, because the material loss you suffer depends entirely on CCP's random number generator - and in the case of T2 Catalysts, that variable represents nearly the entire cost of the modded ship.
Just because YOU base YOUR own calculations on the unlikely scenario of 'total loss' - losing the ship and ALL mods, doesn't mean others do. That random mod drop from your own ship may or may not make the difference in a profit and a loss....
Its a risk we take with every gank.
I might lose 1 Million ISK, I might lose 15 or 20M ISK, who can say except the fates?
If I REALLY felt like gambling I could massively increase the risk to my wallet and put 3x 80M ISK Faction Mag Stabs on the Catalyst. Pretty risky, right? Maybe they die, maybe not.
The concept is no different than with standard T2 fittings. |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
6092
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 19:43:00 -
[163] - Quote
EVE Stig wrote:yah thats a joke right tippia? No, it's me pointing out that he keeps assigning the wrong unit and value to the risk (viz. no unit at all, at a value of 1), and as a seasoned risk manager, he shouldn't be making such a newbie mistake. GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Find more rants over at Tippis' Rants. |
Jorma Morkkis
State War Academy Caldari State
11
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Posted - 2012.04.14 19:52:00 -
[164] - Quote
Not really profitable profession if you worry about few million. 1 mil... That's like killing one belt rat in null... |
EVE Stig
Imperial Academy Amarr Empire
121
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 19:54:00 -
[165] - Quote
Tippia wrote:EVE Stig wrote:yah thats a joke right tippia? No, it's me pointing out that he keeps assigning the wrong unit and value to the risk (viz. no unit at all, at a value of 1), and as a seasoned risk manager, he shouldn't be making such a newbie mistake.
again... pot meet kettle in talking about not being nitpicky lol Tippia you cut every post you quote into at least 4 sections
"Some say that he is actually dead, but the Grim Reaper is too afraid to tell him." "Some say he is the 3rd member of Daft Punk and he did the vocals of "Technologic" song. All we know is,he's called EVE Stig"! |
Jonah Gravenstein
143
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 20:03:00 -
[166] - Quote
Harrigan VonStudly wrote:Jonah Gravenstein wrote:Aruken Marr wrote:
So the certainty of losing your ship once you aggress is not a risk? What is wrong with you people?
Losing your ship is a business cost when you're a suicide ganker, you undock with the sole intent of ruining someone's day and in the full knowledge that you are going to lose your ship, that is not a risk. If losing your ship ruins your day may I suggest the merry-go-round in your friendly neighborhood play park = less risk and deservedly requires, nay, demands you quit Eve and go spin on it instead.
Losing a ship does not ruin my day, I have plenty of other ships to play silly buggers in. However a miner losing an exhumer which may be their primary source of income may not be to happy that some trigger happy ganker in a 15 million isk ship just popped their income source for giggles. People react differently to the situation, I've personally lost quite a few ships to gankers on alts and it doesn't bother me, I'll often talk to them afterwards to see if I can improve my survival chances next time. War hasn't been fought this badly since Olaf the Hairy, High Chief of all the Vikings, accidentally ordered 80,000 battle helmets with the horns on the inside. |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
6092
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 20:04:00 -
[167] - Quote
EVE Stig wrote:again... pot meet kettle in talking about not being nitpicky lol Tippia you cut every post you quote into at least 4 sections Usually because there are at least 4 different points to respond to and I prefer the style where each response is clearly tied to each point, rather than presented as a big incoherent mass.
Also, just to nitpick even further, you realise that you are calling him a nit-picker by using the GÇ£pot and kettleGÇ¥ idiom, right? GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Find more rants over at Tippis' Rants. |
Cedo Nulli
Royal Amarr Institute Amarr Empire
110
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 20:17:00 -
[168] - Quote
I see tippia is one of those people who see they have walked into a swamp but continue to walk forward deeper into the mud thinking "this way I cant be blamed of being wrong!"
The ISO 31000 (2009) /ISO Guide 73:2002 definition of risk is the 'effect of uncertainty on objectives'. In this definition, uncertainties include events (which may or not happen) and uncertainties caused by ambiguity or a lack of information. It also includes both negative and positive impacts on objectives. Many definitions of risk exist in common usage, however this definition was developed by an international committee representing over 30 countries and is based on the input of several thousand subject matter experts.
Thing X happening with 100% certainty is not uncertainty, its the opposite of that.
99% would leave space for uncertainty but 100% flips it to be certainty and a fact. |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
6092
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 20:24:00 -
[169] - Quote
Cedo Nulli wrote:Thing X happening with 100% certainty is not uncertainty, its the opposite of that.
99% would leave space for uncertainty but 100% flips it to be certainty and a fact. GǪwhich still doesn't mean that 100% certain events should not be included in the risk evaluation. The 100% probability is simply the trivial case in such a risk calculation, so there's no question about how to include, calculate, or interpret it.
GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Find more rants over at Tippis' Rants. |
MeestaPenni
Deadman W0nderland The 99 Percent
207
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 20:24:00 -
[170] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Call it as you wish, if your little texbook says it's a risk then enjoy the scholarship.
For everybody else it's a cost. The cost is 100%, the outcome (total ship loss) is certain.
This person understands the real-world application of the term "risk".
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?
I am not Prencleeve Grothsmore. |
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EVE Stig
Imperial Academy Amarr Empire
121
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 20:40:00 -
[171] - Quote
Tippia wrote:EVE Stig wrote:again... pot meet kettle in talking about not being nitpicky lol Tippia you cut every post you quote into at least 4 sections Usually because there are at least 4 different points to respond to and I prefer the style where each response is clearly tied to each point, rather than presented as a big incoherent mass. Also, just to nitpick even further, you realise that you are calling him a nit-picker by using the GÇ£pot and kettleGÇ¥ idiom, right?
yes, hence it all being jokingly referred to rather than the whole threads r serious the rest of this this is lol "Some say that he is actually dead, but the Grim Reaper is too afraid to tell him." "Some say he is the 3rd member of Daft Punk and he did the vocals of "Technologic" song. All we know is,he's called EVE Stig"! |
Lanasak
School of Applied Knowledge Caldari State
59
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 21:51:00 -
[172] - Quote
Lanasak wrote:i love how miners try to paint suicide ganking as a "risk-free profession" when it is basically the only thing that adds any risk to their own
just quoting this again |
Malcanis
Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
3335
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 22:01:00 -
[173] - Quote
Personally I'm just happy that we've finally disposed of the myth that suicide ganking has no consequences.
At least now there is a consensus that it does cost - if that's the word I want? - something to make the attempt. Malcanis' Law: Any proposal justified on the basis that "it will benefit new players" is invariably to the greater advantage of older, richer players.
Things to do in EVE:-áhttp://swiftandbitter.com/eve/wtd/ |
March rabbit
Trojan Trolls Red Alliance
154
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 22:16:00 -
[174] - Quote
Aruken Marr wrote:Aranakas wrote:Zverofaust wrote:So apparently yesterday's patch introduced a secret shadow feature change, as CONCORD police will now insta-jam the moment they show up on grid. About time this change was made. Suicide ganking as a profession is too risk-free for the ganker and harmful to the target. So the certainty of losing your ship once you aggress is not a risk? What is wrong with you people? lol. i undock in my ship and self-destruct it.....
I"M A HERO!
because of risk...... |
Cedo Nulli
Royal Amarr Institute Amarr Empire
114
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 22:20:00 -
[175] - Quote
Lanasak wrote:Lanasak wrote:i love how miners try to paint suicide ganking as a "risk-free profession" when it is basically the only thing that adds any risk to their own just quoting this again
You do understand that its in no way relevant ? Even on the second time around. |
Herr Wilkus
Aggressive Salvage Services LLC Tear Extraction And Reclamation Service
301
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 22:25:00 -
[176] - Quote
Cedo Nulli wrote:I see tippia is one of those people who see they have walked into a swamp but continue to walk forward deeper into the mud thinking "this way I cant be blamed of being wrong!"
The ISO 31000 (2009) /ISO Guide 73:2002 definition of risk is the 'effect of uncertainty on objectives'. In this definition, uncertainties include events (which may or not happen) and uncertainties caused by ambiguity or a lack of information. It also includes both negative and positive impacts on objectives. Many definitions of risk exist in common usage, however this definition was developed by an international committee representing over 30 countries and is based on the input of several thousand subject matter experts.
Thing X happening with 100% certainty is not uncertainty, its the opposite of that.
99% would leave space for uncertainty but 100% flips it to be certainty and a fact.
So reducing your chances of Concord death from 100% to 50% would increase the risk for a ganker? Wow. You really must be insane. |
Lanasak
School of Applied Knowledge Caldari State
59
|
Posted - 2012.04.15 00:39:00 -
[177] - Quote
Cedo Nulli wrote:Lanasak wrote:Lanasak wrote:i love how miners try to paint suicide ganking as a "risk-free profession" when it is basically the only thing that adds any risk to their own just quoting this again You do understand that its in no way relevant ? Even on the second time around.
it is because any serious nerf to suicide ganking will just kill it off |
JC Anderson
Noir. Noir. Mercenary Group
265
|
Posted - 2012.04.15 01:45:00 -
[178] - Quote
EVE Stig wrote:
the feature turned bug of your skills still training when your account ran out of time...
Heh..
Had almost forgot about the ghost training debacle. |
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