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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
179
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Posted - 2012.04.20 23:39:00 -
[31] - Quote
Callduron wrote:My word you're panicking, aren't you?
Look, tech stocks can't be empty as you keep insisting. Otherwise the price would be constantly inflating, not spiking and going back down. But you know that :)
http://i.imgur.com/P6WIL.png
e: before you make the obvious attempt to sound right based on semantics, sure its rising and falling but consistently going upward overall |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
623
|
Posted - 2012.04.21 00:11:00 -
[32] - Quote
corestwo wrote:Callduron wrote:My word you're panicking, aren't you?
Look, tech stocks can't be empty as you keep insisting. Otherwise the price would be constantly inflating, not spiking and going back down. But you know that :) http://i.imgur.com/P6WIL.pnge: before you make the obvious attempt to sound right based on semantics, sure its rising and falling but consistently going upward overall e2: ps the dips following the spikes more or less coincide with moons changing hands (protip there's another dip coming) or people needing tech because they welped some supers, the existence of your supposed stockpiles would attenuate this effect
Corestwo is quite correct. Only details would be that the extreme rightmost swing has some speculation push and that the "dips" are just the natural swings that every market needs to breathe (regardless of the underlying cause). If it had been a pure cartel operation the price would do more "saw teeth" shaped swings and they'd be more on an horizontal plane. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Callduron
128
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Posted - 2012.04.21 01:01:00 -
[33] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote: If it had been a pure cartel operation the price would do more "saw teeth" shaped swings and they'd be more on an horizontal plane.
You're assuming that the only possible way a cartel could be run is that they all agree a price point and never vary from that price point even when circumstances change. That's obviously nonsense.
When the market is running counter to the game design logic it's because of player action. When it's a commodity that only a tiny handful of players directly harvest that player action is a cartel. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
179
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Posted - 2012.04.21 04:22:00 -
[34] - Quote
So we're a cartel, but there's also stockpiles out there, but there actually aren't, and we're all also all dumping as fast as possible in anticipation of the introduction of ring mining that CCP has given no details whatsoever about including, most crucially, a date.
Do I have that right?
Apparently we're schrodinger's cartel or something I don't even know. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
623
|
Posted - 2012.04.21 05:40:00 -
[35] - Quote
Callduron wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote: If it had been a pure cartel operation the price would do more "saw teeth" shaped swings and they'd be more on an horizontal plane.
You're assuming that the only possible way a cartel could be run is that they all agree a price point and never vary from that price point even when circumstances change. That's obviously nonsense. When the market is running counter to the game design logic it's because of player action. When it's a commodity that only a tiny handful of players directly harvest that player action is a cartel.
Markets never run "counter logic" and "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent".
This is the fun thing about people willing to find the super-deep reason in everything: they get lost in the details while they crawl in the dark and get in all sorts of rumors and speculations.
All I see in Corestwo's graph is like what I posted yesterday in my Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE thread about trends: look from the Feb 2001 to end of 2003 example.
That's all you need to know, not how good or bad Goons are, how scarce or not Technetium is and tralala nobody can know. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Caleb Ayrania
TarNec
17
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Posted - 2012.04.21 17:10:00 -
[36] - Quote
I think we stand a bit corrected..
Would seem we just got a nice new dev blog...
Hoping he drops in on us, and drops a line once in a while. Especially some comments on the more analytical and feature discussion threads..
Would like to hear more about out of game market data and historics all the way back to early days..
Also any comments on if or why we are not getting shares tradable in scc, player corp and npc corp..
Dev blog |
Krixtal Icefluxor
Bison - Ammatar Thunder Thundering Herd
561
|
Posted - 2012.04.21 18:07:00 -
[37] - Quote
The man has to stay fairly quiet obviously.
Look what happened after he said CCP "may or may not" "do something" about the price of PLEX a year ago.
HE is one smart man to stay away from THIS panicky flame-boat. There isn't anything left for you to do to Carebears. -áGo, kill them some more. They're like fungus or bacteria, they won't die and they won't stop. All you have to show for years of organized harassment campaigns against them is ... nothing. |
Callduron
128
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Posted - 2012.04.21 18:15:00 -
[38] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Callduron wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote: If it had been a pure cartel operation the price would do more "saw teeth" shaped swings and they'd be more on an horizontal plane.
You're assuming that the only possible way a cartel could be run is that they all agree a price point and never vary from that price point even when circumstances change. That's obviously nonsense. When the market is running counter to the game design logic it's because of player action. When it's a commodity that only a tiny handful of players directly harvest that player action is a cartel. Markets never run "counter logic" and "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent". This is the fun thing about people willing to find the super-deep reason in everything: they get lost in the details while they crawl in the dark and get in all sorts of rumors and speculations. All I see in Corestwo's graph is like what I posted yesterday in my Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE thread about trends: look from the Feb 2001 to end of 2003 example. That's all you need to know, not how good or bad Goons are, how scarce or not Technetium is and tralala nobody can know.
OK, I read your other thread about the candle bar graphs and it looks very interesting. I still think you're missing the point about Tech, especially if you're inferring from regular up and down fluctuations that there cannot be a cartel.
I'm not saying all Tech stock is owned by one shadowy puppetmaster who logs on and updates his sell orders once a week. Tech has basically been analogous to real world gold for the last two years. Since Akita T's the Sky's the limit post people have stored value in Tech. So of course there are spikes because any price point will see long and short term speculators move stock.
But most Tech that is actually harvested is subject to a price agreement made by nullsec alliances. That's why, with a Tech nerf imminent, the price has gone up. Because clever players are maximising their profits while they still can. As Mittens said in the state of the Goonion 3 weeks ago when asked about the incoming tech nerf "our finance guys have been planning for this since we got our first tech moon".
I also think, V V, that when you read posts from people like Coretwo you make the mistake of taking his obvious expertise as an indication that what he is saying is correct. He IS expert. He also has a vested interest. That's why he's misleading the board. It reminds me of how, in 2008 when we started to realise there might be a problem with our savings and pensions, journalists invited experts from Goldman Sachs on to their programmes to advise the public how to invest their money. If you want to be a real auditing expert you need to look at the people as well as the numbers.
Anyway I need to learn a bit more about candles before we can really have a decent discussion on why you think the graphs show there is no cartel in operation, VV. Thanks for your insights. |
Tobiaz
Spacerats
277
|
Posted - 2012.04.21 18:24:00 -
[39] - Quote
You guys still going on about that tech ?
Ontopic: I like the guy, but with the level of access Dr. Eyjo has to in-game statistics, GM Arkanon would probably come and sit on his lap whenever he would log in to play. I miss the QENs though. And the last quarter has definitely been busy enough to make it an interesting read. CCP, fix the forum's image tags http://go-dl.eve-files.com/media/corp/Tobiaz/sig_complaints.gif
Operation WRITE DOWN ALL THE THINGS!!!-á visit at http://bit.ly/wdatt |
Krixtal Icefluxor
Bison - Ammatar Thunder Thundering Herd
561
|
Posted - 2012.04.21 18:25:00 -
[40] - Quote
Callduron wrote:[OK, I read your other thread about the candle bar graphs and it looks very interesting... SNIPPAGE
Yup. The Goons have had their tiny pathetic little hands around the price of Technetium TOO long. Kills T2 shipbuilding profits for all down to hardly anything. There isn't anything left for you to do to Carebears. -áGo, kill them some more. They're like fungus or bacteria, they won't die and they won't stop. All you have to show for years of organized harassment campaigns against them is ... nothing. |
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Tobiaz
Spacerats
277
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Posted - 2012.04.21 18:30:00 -
[41] - Quote
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:Callduron wrote:[OK, I read your other thread about the candle bar graphs and it looks very interesting... SNIPPAGE Yup. The Goons have had their tiny pathetic little hands around the price of Technetium TOO long. Kills T2 shipbuilding profits for all down to hardly anything.
And you, in their position would have been EVE's good Samaritan, giving it away for spare change, helping the poor and the newbies, out of the goodness of your heart. Until your neighbor alliance kicks you out, that is. CCP, fix the forum's image tags http://go-dl.eve-files.com/media/corp/Tobiaz/sig_complaints.gif
Operation WRITE DOWN ALL THE THINGS!!!-á visit at http://bit.ly/wdatt |
Krixtal Icefluxor
Bison - Ammatar Thunder Thundering Herd
561
|
Posted - 2012.04.21 18:32:00 -
[42] - Quote
Tobiaz wrote:You guys still going on about that tech ?
It is indeed getting old is it not ?
Was asking my roomie (who plays EVE) about why CCP can't seem to get a handle on that Tech issue with the Goons, which seems to be a real long-lived rock in thier shoes.
We both agree that CCP is probably not sure what to do exactly.
Even if steps are taken in Inferno, you KNOW the Goons 'accounting boys' will have a counter-plan............ There isn't anything left for you to do to Carebears. -áGo, kill them some more. They're like fungus or bacteria, they won't die and they won't stop. All you have to show for years of organized harassment campaigns against them is ... nothing. |
Krixtal Icefluxor
Bison - Ammatar Thunder Thundering Herd
561
|
Posted - 2012.04.21 18:34:00 -
[43] - Quote
Tobiaz wrote: And you, in their position would have been EVE's good Samaritan, giving it away for spare change, helping the poor and the newbies, out of the goodness of your heart.
These are your assumptions, not reality. Troll failed. There isn't anything left for you to do to Carebears. -áGo, kill them some more. They're like fungus or bacteria, they won't die and they won't stop. All you have to show for years of organized harassment campaigns against them is ... nothing. |
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
294
|
Posted - 2012.04.21 21:02:00 -
[44] - Quote
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote: Even if steps are taken in Inferno, you KNOW the Goons 'accounting boys' will have a counter-plan............
guilty as charged :sun: |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
628
|
Posted - 2012.04.21 21:26:00 -
[45] - Quote
Callduron wrote:
OK, I read your other thread about the candle bar graphs and it looks very interesting. I still think you're missing the point about Tech, especially if you're inferring from regular up and down fluctuations that there cannot be a cartel.
See, the cool thing about reading price is that I don't have to *care* about what's behind it nor wear tinfoil hats. Imagine a car that leaks oil. It can run away, it can go hide, it may get covered by a plastic sheet whatever, yet you may look at the little oil trails and find it. They can buy / sell / hold / whatever, the price follows them like a diligent dog.
As for why I believe they are not dumping and pumping or whatever, the price looks "regular" till the last swings where it indeed takes too much push, but that's it and were you following the trail you'd run after those cartelist tails and have it bought yourself and would make the more revenue the more they pump it up. Admitting there are cartelists, which nobody can prove unless they admit it themselves. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
294
|
Posted - 2012.04.21 21:28:00 -
[46] - Quote
i have decided the price should be moved to 180k, so that should be done by the end of the weekend |
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University Ivy League
884
|
Posted - 2012.04.21 21:55:00 -
[47] - Quote
The problem with the QENs is that about half of each one was just "fluff". Things that could be gotten from data available to the players, seen on market graphs, or easily calculated using market dumps / exports. Those bits really weren't particular insightful except to the people who never looked at a in-game market graph in their life.
The useful bits of the QEN was information not available to the players. Such as the source of minerals, what ships were used most often, etc. Plus a discussion of the market / materials sinks and faucets. Some of which we now get from CCP Diagoras twitter feed. |
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
294
|
Posted - 2012.04.22 22:53:00 -
[48] - Quote
Retar Aveymone wrote:i have decided the price should be moved to 180k, so that should be done by the end of the weekend my mistake
overshot by 10-20k
sorry |
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
294
|
Posted - 2012.04.22 22:53:00 -
[49] - Quote
tech at 190k :sun: |
Matrix Operator
Imperial Academy Amarr Empire
28
|
Posted - 2012.04.23 04:48:00 -
[50] - Quote
Hey look, there was a Dev Blog by Dr. E. yesterday! ... wonder if it was in response to this thread...
We still know your watching us...*peers intently out of the screen* |
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