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Noix Arikani
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Posted - 2009.01.31 12:36:00 -
[1]
I was recently thinking about EVE boxed version being released and the amount of new players that would join atleast for the 30 day free trial, people were throwing around numbers like "20,000 tops" and then made a quick calculation. Supposing with the spread of gaming there must be about 20,000 locations in the US alone that will stock EVE. That means that only ONE copy of EVE will need to be bought from each location (unlikley with CCP squeezing every last chance for exposure). Now in a months time this will probably happen.Now the UK must have about 10,000 locations giving another 10,000 players. This totals out to about 30,000 players for the first month with IMO very low sales numbers. Personally I think by the summer there will be another 50,000 players and by the time of WiS we will reach a PCU of 110,000. Do you believe these numbers are feasible and moreover will the servers be able to handle 5000 in jita ?! |
Zeba
Minmatar Honourable East India Trading Company
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Posted - 2009.01.31 12:39:00 -
[2]
Well the devs keep doing the wink wink routine on how there is going to be sooooooooooooo much moar to see in m10 than just wormhole exploration so maybe that is when infiniband hits? |
Qordel
Caldari School of Applied Knowledge
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Posted - 2009.01.31 13:02:00 -
[3]
Yeah, I wouldn't get carried away. Expecting an expansion to a game that is almost six years old and focuses on a niche market to increase its size 20% from that expansion being out in a retail box is a bit hopeful.
Remember, this is CCP. This isn't Rock Star Games releasing a brand new title on consoles. A brand new title on a console, which has the greatest penetration, is lucky if it sells over a million titles. And that's a brand new game with lots of hype and plenty of reviews.
EVE will get a couple or maybe a very small handful of reviews. Most reviewers will not bother, because "it's an expansion that isn't for WOW". Most of them still think EVE is "that really old game that still has some stragglers sticking around". They don't understand that the game is continuing to build higher numbers than ever. Anyway, the coverage probably just won't be there.
I don't think you'll see the major ad campaigns that other top titles can afford.
I would be surprised if Atari was putting out more than 100,000 units on the first run of the retail sets and the attrition rate on MMOs is pretty heavy. Especially, it seems, EVE. So even if they sold every copy and half the players stuck around after the first month, you're only looking at 50,000. And that's not going ot happen immediately.
I think it's also a stretch that EVE will be at 20,000 locations. It's unlikely a play like Walmart would carry it. Maybe GameStop will, though.
I suspect we'll see another 50,000 players by this time in 2010, but we'd probably see those numbers even without the retail box, just because that appears to be the recent trend in increases for the game.
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Cors
It's A Trap
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Posted - 2009.01.31 13:30:00 -
[4]
My question is, with the advent of W-Space and it's 2K-3K new "systems" will the server hardware be increased for M10? Or will we be going with the current server cluster?
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Kessiaan
Minmatar Army of One
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Posted - 2009.01.31 13:40:00 -
[5]
I agree with the above poster - the box will bring exposure and some new people, but not a whole lot.
Walking in Stations is what's going to kill the servers. There are loads of people who say, "I like EvE but I can't stand being a spaceship", most of whom will come back and at least try EvE, and so long as there's enough to do in the stations they'll hang around.
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Zaknussem
Caldari Intrum Industria
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Posted - 2009.01.31 13:44:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Zaknussem on 31/01/2009 13:44:46
Originally by: Qordel Yeah, I wouldn't get carried away. Expecting an expansion to a game that is almost six years old and focuses on a niche market to increase its size 20% from that expansion being out in a retail box is a bit hopeful.
Actually, I think you could be wrong here. I can imagine the EvE playerbase growing by 20% over the next 6 months...but only temporarily. Long-term playerbase growth will propably be a far lower number. It all depends on how many units Atari ships, though.
Quote: A brand new title on a console, which has the greatest penetration, is lucky if it sells over a million titles. And that's a brand new game with lots of hype and plenty of reviews.
...a game that is almost six years old...
I would say having 6 years to build up hype for a game is pretty good, don't you think? Especially when it's largely "word-by-mouth" (the most preferable marketing strategy out there) on the largest gaming platform in the world?
Quote: EVE will get a couple or maybe a very small handful of reviews. Most reviewers will not bother, because "it's an expansion that isn't for WOW". Most of them still think EVE is "that really old game that still has some stragglers sticking around". They don't understand that the game is continuing to build higher numbers than ever. Anyway, the coverage probably just won't be there.
You just nailed down what's wrong with the gaming industry here. The reason EvE won't get many reviews is because the reviewers aren't being paid to review EvE. And they certainly aren't being bribed to give good reviews. CCP simply doesn't have the money for that. (And don't think that they wouldn't.)
It's also a well-known fact that knowledgable, competent, unbiased game reviewers simply don't exist. Gaming sites that claim to review games aren't doing so, they're simply shoving thinly-veiled advertisements down your throat.
Quote: I don't think you'll see the major ad campaigns that other top titles can afford.
This is due to two reasons. The first one is that it's rarely the developers that make the ad campaigns, but the publishers, which do so to maximize their profits. Second, these big ad campaigns are usually run when the publisher pockets the majority of the revenues from a title. In the case of EvE, that simply isn't the case.
Quote: I would be surprised if Atari was putting out more than 100,000 units on the first run of the retail sets and the attrition rate on MMOs is pretty heavy. Especially, it seems, EVE. So even if they sold every copy and half the players stuck around after the first month, you're only looking at 50,000. And that's not going ot happen immediately.
I think it's also a stretch that EVE will be at 20,000 locations. It's unlikely a play like Walmart would carry it. Maybe GameStop will, though.
Good points. Though in the case of Wal-Mart, that's actually a good thing. I still cringe at the horror stories I hear from former Wal-Mart employees.
EDIT: Typo. |
Zeba
Minmatar Honourable East India Trading Company
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Posted - 2009.01.31 13:46:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Cors My question is, with the advent of W-Space and it's 2K-3K new "systems" will the server hardware be increased for M10? Or will we be going with the current server cluster?
This is why I get a feeling infiniband might hit with m10. There is no way they can add 2500 new systems without at least some new new blades to support them. Also all the hints from the devs as to when infiniband would hit from people wondering if any new hardware would be installed along with the stackless stuff kinda centered around no new hardware until infiniband as it would be a waste so maybe its time. One can hope.
inappropriate signature. ~WeatherMan |
Selenica Draper
Caldari State Protectorate
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Posted - 2009.01.31 14:16:00 -
[8]
I don't think there being Eve Online boxes in retail stores is going to affect the subscriber population by much. Eve's online ad campaigns have had about as much impact on the online gamer target market as CCP could ever hope to achieve.
Walking-In-Stations will be what brings in a HUGE influx of players. Especially if it manages to release before any of the other upcoming Sci-Fi MMOs. I know it seems most Eve veterans are of a low opinion of Walking-In-Stations but I do think it has a potential to bring more complexity and excitement to a game that, to most gamers, seems to be too much of a "toy-ship"-like RTS + economic simulation with not nearly enough roleplay/character development possibilites.
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Scarlet Pimpdaddy
Minmatar
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Posted - 2009.01.31 14:40:00 -
[9]
I forsee a dramatic drop in player numbers
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Malcanis
R.E.C.O.N.
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Posted - 2009.01.31 14:47:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Noix Arikani I was recently thinking about EVE boxed version being released and the amount of new players that would join atleast for the 30 day free trial, people were throwing around numbers like "20,000 tops" and then made a quick calculation. Supposing with the spread of gaming there must be about 20,000 locations in the US alone that will stock EVE. That means that only ONE copy of EVE will need to be bought from each location (unlikley with CCP squeezing every last chance for exposure). Now in a months time this will probably happen.Now the UK must have about 10,000 locations giving another 10,000 players. This totals out to about 30,000 players for the first month with IMO very low sales numbers. Personally I think by the summer there will be another 50,000 players and by the time of WiS we will reach a PCU of 110,000. Do you believe these numbers are feasible and moreover will the servers be able to handle 5000 in jita ?!
remember that most people don't spend 168 hours a week logged in to the game.
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Lann Krail
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Posted - 2009.02.01 00:03:00 -
[11]
EVE iz deying !!!
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bff Jill
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Posted - 2009.02.01 00:19:00 -
[12]
EVE is finally coming out of beta! |
Armoured C
Gallente Federation of Freedom Fighters Executive Outcomes
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Posted - 2009.02.01 00:21:00 -
[13]
it the wormholes , they bring subscriptions |
Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.02.01 00:21:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Lann Krail EVE iz deying !!!
Damned, I just wanted to write that!!
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