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Roland Deschaines
Minmatar Esquires Of Questionable Intention
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Posted - 2009.05.17 13:44:00 -
[1]
Hey. PLEX prices have gone UP recently. a lot. They're closer to 400 mil than 300 mil these days. Does anybody know why, and where this is headed?
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ingenting
20th Legion Sodalitas XX
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Posted - 2009.05.17 14:00:00 -
[2]
supply/demand? _________________ - "Welcome to EVE, remember to insu *BAAOOM*... Told you, newb."
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Roland Deschaines
Minmatar Esquires Of Questionable Intention
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Posted - 2009.05.17 14:36:00 -
[3]
OFC, but it seems to have been pretty stable up to now. Are people buying less real money GTCs, and more Eve money PLEXs? Why so? And is it probably gonna last long?
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Finedele
Caldari Provisions
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Posted - 2009.05.17 17:45:00 -
[4]
hello sai, long days and pleasant nights to you :>
i would say its all about convienience. buying and selling a plex is so much easier than getting a gtc sold.
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Dariah Stardweller
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Posted - 2009.05.17 19:21:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Roland Deschaines OFC, but it seems to have been pretty stable up to now. Are people buying less real money GTCs, and more Eve money PLEXs? Why so? And is it probably gonna last long?
Stable? Open up the market screen and at the market graph with the view set to "year", does that look stable?
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Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.05.17 22:12:00 -
[6]
The morning before 1.2 patch deployment someone bought out all the PLEX sell orders in Jita. There were a grand total of 12 left at various times during the day.
So, basically speculation and manipulation. Someone with a set of giant brass balls was just crushing people with them (and his wallet), that's all.
As much as I wanted to drive the price higher I had to help myself to all the free ISK instead.
Oh, and if you look at shorter term graphs you'll see PLEXes had flatlined for about 2 months. I'm glad to see a bit of movement here.
And in summary, bigger blobs are the answer. Now what was the question? |
Roland Deschaines
Minmatar Esquires Of Questionable Intention
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Posted - 2009.05.18 15:44:00 -
[7]
OK - so basically a huge buy 'em all so I can dictate price with my monopoly sort of thing. Hmm. I hope it comes back to 330 soon anyway.
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Ryoko Yoshida
Amarr
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Posted - 2009.05.18 16:03:00 -
[8]
We (the Illuminati) have decided poor people can no longer pay ISK to play.
Enjoy your IRL spending. -------------------- This is where my sig is meant to begin... |
Ryoko Yoshida
Amarr
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Posted - 2009.05.18 16:05:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Ryoko Yoshida on 18/05/2009 16:06:00 (Double post - deleted) -------------------- This is where my sig is meant to begin... |
Sir Elliot
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Posted - 2009.05.18 19:19:00 -
[10]
A number of RL causes could also be at the root.
College and high school are letting out for the summer. It was right about 2 months ago that Apoc came out, etc, so the initial 60 day timecards are expiring.
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Jinx Barker
Caldari GFB Scientific
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Posted - 2009.05.18 20:45:00 -
[11]
in Jita volume of PLEX has been constant at 800-900 units for the last few months.
About a week ago they volume has started to decrease, last time I checked we have had 380 units for sale, down from 850 or so before. So, as supply dwindles, the demand, even if it stays the same, will push the prices up.
I have resold quite a number of PLEX, making some ISK in the process.
::::Click The Signature For the Blog::::
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Bloody Rabbit
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Posted - 2009.05.19 18:19:00 -
[12]
I have to admit I was storing my idle isk in plexes I bought at 300-305 but I have sold all of them as the price has been rising.
I watch the market but I'm not sure why the increase other than spring is here and people with money are not buying and selling plexes with cash as they are outside spending their money.
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Jinx Barker
Caldari GFB Scientific
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Posted - 2009.05.19 20:24:00 -
[13]
It came down last night at bellow 315 at one point. Now it is back up to 364+
::::Click The Signature For the Blog::::
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dr doooo
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Posted - 2009.05.19 21:21:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Clair Bear The morning before 1.2 patch deployment someone bought out all the PLEX sell orders in Jita. There were a grand total of 12 left at various times during the day.
So, basically speculation and manipulation. Someone with a set of giant brass balls was just crushing people with them (and his wallet), that's all.
As much as I wanted to drive the price higher I had to help myself to all the free ISK instead.
Oh, and if you look at shorter term graphs you'll see PLEXes had flatlined for about 2 months. I'm glad to see a bit of movement here.
I don't agree with you on your brass balled trader theory. Plex's have been in short supply for a month or so, and sell orders nearly running out occasionally for a few weeks in Jita. My interest was piqued back to plex's when a load of my old orders were filled at 260-270mill (ish) a few months ago. There was a rumour that a very rich Russian had been busted for buying $100,000 worth of isk, and had then gone on to replace this with $50,000 worth of plex's. Whether that is true or not doesn't really matter. If enough players believe it, or believe it enough to have a punt on plex's, the price is going to go up.
For what it is worth, I've been selling of my last few dozen I was holding the last few days. Is the market topping out now? Who knows! One very big buyer can obviously push the market higher, but I think they would have to be very desperate to be buying now. On top of that, you've also got all the 'Johnny come lately' traders, who have just heard that plex's are 'happening' the last few days. This type of trader tends to update orders like a speed-freak mainlining crack on the side, and have an equally nervous selling trigger, as they have everything they own wrapped up in a few plex's. So I'm out for at least the short term.
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Mara Rinn
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Posted - 2009.05.20 04:01:00 -
[15]
Edited by: Mara Rinn on 20/05/2009 04:03:04 The last few spikes in PLEX prices seem to have been due to folks trying to trade the price up by buying the low ones and re-listing them at a higher price.
So someone out there has bought themselves a nice big stack of ultra-expensive PLEX which are never going to shift.
Originally by: Ryoko Yoshida We (the Illuminati) have decided poor people can no longer pay ISK to play.
If that is so, I assume someone has endless supplies of ISK and isn't interested in actually redeeming the PLEX for play time since they already have about 10 years worth of PLEX stashed away in Jita.
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Samroski
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Posted - 2009.05.20 19:27:00 -
[16]
Edited by: Samroski on 20/05/2009 19:30:24 Since this thread started I've been keeping an eye on PLEX prices in Lonetrek and Forge, and there were loads of these around at about 350 mil till 2 days ago- in fact I bought one for 348.
Today there are none in both these regions under 280!
Nice manipulation by somebody who has a bit of cash to spare :)
Edit: there are 30 PLESes at Jita and 7 in Lonetrek currently
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.05.20 20:04:00 -
[17]
I'll say this, its not hard to start a cascade on any item including PLEX |
Dzil
Caldari Second Quadrant Ice Division
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Posted - 2009.05.20 20:12:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Samroski Edited by: Samroski on 20/05/2009 19:30:24 Since this thread started I've been keeping an eye on PLEX prices in Lonetrek and Forge, and there were loads of these around at about 350 mil till 2 days ago- in fact I bought one for 348.
Today there are none in both these regions under 280!
Nice manipulation by somebody who has a bit of cash to spare :)
Edit: there are 30 PLESes at Jita and 7 in Lonetrek currently
I can't for my life wrap my brain around this. The price went up - why the 280 reference point?
Looks like a classic market manip - but in some cases the price never actually settles back into neutrality, especially if inflation/out of game circumstances could cause a different equilibrium. However, I'm ultimately kind of surprised - the summer is usually a lull in MMOs, I would expect GTC sales to slump and prices to drop, not the opposite.
------------------------------ In EVE, when someone undercuts you, they're a lemming.
When you undercut someone else, it's skill/effort/manipulation.
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Nathaniel Brix
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Posted - 2009.05.20 21:07:00 -
[19]
Think he meant 380 (right now about 377 truthfully...) and you can see how someone is doing it. There is a 20 unit buy order for 363 and change right now to act as the engine to push the price higher...
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Jinx Barker
Caldari GFB Scientific
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Posted - 2009.05.20 22:15:00 -
[20]
Personally I view PLEX' as an EVE equivalent of RL Gold. They will always be in demand, and are subject to price manipulation, but at the same time limited, due to their value in RL cash, from being widely "abused." As such, they are also a good safeguard against the inflationary forces on the market.
At the moment, however, if someone asked my opinion, it is time to HOLD. Should they drop to 300+/- (give 10/15%) it would be time to buy, and should they reach 400+ mark, it would be time to sell.
Just some thoughts on the matter from a part time Jita w***e.
::::Click The Signature For the Blog::::
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glas mir
Reaction Scientific
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Posted - 2009.05.21 05:27:00 -
[21]
PLEXs are proving interesting, they seem to have settled in a new equilibrium, it might just be a very shallow demand curve.
looking at the jita market graph, the change occurred over five days. Looks like someone was buying out the market. Volume was on the low side of average, but not out of the ordinary. No clear technical patterns emerge from the chart.
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lIllIlIllIl
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Posted - 2009.05.21 08:22:00 -
[22]
Well im canceling all 5 my accounts will ask a friend when it cost's +-320 mil again but till then ill be looking for a new game to play. Might start playing my guild wars again at least its free
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Brock Nelson
Caldari Flux Technologies Inc
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Posted - 2009.05.21 08:28:00 -
[23]
Your char/stuff, can I haz it?
Blueprint Store |
Ji Sama
Caldari Tash-Murkon Prime Industries
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Posted - 2009.05.21 08:39:00 -
[24]
No i haz stuf plx
Quote:
The SCC-LOUNGE is now offering Secure Commerce Services @ www.scc-lounge.wordpress.com
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Amond Starsmoke
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Posted - 2009.05.21 09:37:00 -
[25]
o/ o/ o/ o/ o/ o/ o/
21 gun salute for you and your macro hulk fleet!
maybe trit prices will go up now as hulk pilots leave the game?
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.05.21 12:11:00 -
[26]
Originally by: glas mir PLEXs are proving interesting, they seem to have settled in a new equilibrium, it might just be a very shallow demand curve.
looking at the jita market graph, the change occurred over five days. Looks like someone was buying out the market. Volume was on the low side of average, but not out of the ordinary. No clear technical patterns emerge from the chart.
based on outliers, all I did was get the ball rolling. The momentum took it the rest of the way to the true correct price.
Same thing I did with HACs, AF, and command ships few months back. |
Breaker77
Reclamation Industries New Eden Research
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Posted - 2009.05.21 22:05:00 -
[27]
What does everything think the Plexes for Passes will do to the Plex market?
Quote: 1 Fanfest Access Pass = 5 PLEX 1 Spouse (SoE) Access Pass = 12 PLEX
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Iridescent Moon
Caldari Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.05.21 22:34:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Breaker77 What does everything think the Plexes for Passes will do to the Plex market?
Yeah, that should push the price up a bit.
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Packs Merlau
The Scope
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Posted - 2009.05.21 22:40:00 -
[29]
I got this e-mail from CCP yesterday: Quote:
Quote: Our records indicate that the above character has a balance of 300 Million ISK or more. As part of our sixth anniversary celebration, we would like to extend a one-day reactivation offer to you so that you may have the opportunity to turn that ISK into game time using the ingame PLEX system. Simply log into Account Management and claim your 24 hour reactivation time.
It's a fair bet that a lot of people have re-activated and spent their ISK on plexes, driving up the price.
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Gabriel Rosencrantz
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Posted - 2009.05.22 00:07:00 -
[30]
The price has dropped from a high of ~389mil to ~384mil in about a 10 minute span of time (00:05 game time). and it looks like its picking up steam. my answer is: manipulation. but thats just a guess. whats up with this over 300mil email. I have more than a billion and i did not get an email. |
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WallyWorld79
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Posted - 2009.05.22 01:05:00 -
[31]
One of my inactive accounts received that email as well. CCP is giving a one day pass and hopes that you spend that $300 M isk on a time card to extend for another month.
Here's a theory...Are too many people playing for free (with PLEXs) and "somone" not happy and bumping up the price? Bump up the PLEX price too high and people will have to start paying to play. |
EVEHelpisSeriousBusiness
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Posted - 2009.05.22 01:24:00 -
[32]
Originally by: WallyWorld79 One of my inactive accounts received that email as well. CCP is giving a one day pass and hopes that you spend that $300 M isk on a time card to extend for another month.
Here's a theory...Are too many people playing for free (with PLEXs) and "somone" not happy and bumping up the price? Bump up the PLEX price too high and people will have to start paying to play.
I find your ideas intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter and/or pyramid scheme.
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Nathaniel Brix
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Posted - 2009.05.22 01:53:00 -
[33]
Interesting idea, but CCP doesn't really care how you pay for your account as someone had to pay for the initial PLEX to start with. And, lets be honest, most of the people who pay for their accounts using PLEX are hardcore people with a couple of accounts, otherwise known as the hardcore player. The hardcore sort who make the game interesting by making things, causing big battles etc...that give people interesting things to talk about. Now if CCP suddenly put a short time limit on every PLEX (this PLEX best used before 1/1/10) then I could see how a possible conspiracy could happen --drive the price up so no one will buy them, then cancel the out of date ones--but besides that I think we can go with the manipulation of markets...and you can see cracks already starting on that --Jita has a top buy order of around 371k, but Lonetreck has a high of 331...think the marketeer is narrowing his focus to pull as much isk as possible out of Jita before it goes south...
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Gabriel Rosencrantz
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Posted - 2009.05.22 02:45:00 -
[34]
Well, the price flirted with 390mil. but the low sell is now 371 and highest jita buy is now 362mil. and dropping all in 3hours. manipulation. let's see this mythical email. |
Dariah Stardweller
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Posted - 2009.05.24 19:28:00 -
[35]
Originally by: Gabriel Rosencrantz Well, the price flirted with 390mil. but the low sell is now 371 and highest jita buy is now 362mil. and dropping all in 3hours. manipulation. let's see this mythical email.
It has gone even higher the past 2 days. Wondering how bad it will get, I can't afford 400 million isk PLEXes...
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Iridescent Moon
Caldari Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.05.24 20:54:00 -
[36]
Originally by: Dariah Stardweller It has gone even higher the past 2 days. Wondering how bad it will get, I can't afford 400 million isk PLEXes...
Only fools buy a PLEX in Jita to use. Don't be the fool.
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Dariah Stardweller
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Posted - 2009.05.25 18:36:00 -
[37]
Originally by: Iridescent Moon
Originally by: Dariah Stardweller It has gone even higher the past 2 days. Wondering how bad it will get, I can't afford 400 million isk PLEXes...
Only fools buy a PLEX in Jita to use. Don't be the fool.
How that may be true, if PLEX price goes up in Jita, the rest of the galaxy soon follows. My point was: it might be stabilizing just under 400. Though I hope it will crash soon I'm not getting my hopes up :)
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Iridescent Moon
Caldari Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.05.26 04:49:00 -
[38]
Originally by: Dariah Stardweller
How that may be true, if PLEX price goes up in Jita, the rest of the galaxy soon follows. My point was: it might be stabilizing just under 400. Though I hope it will crash soon I'm not getting my hopes up :)
That is true but, if consumers stay away from the Jita PLEX market all you have is marketeers selling to each other. They play a game of musical PLEXs and when someone is left holding the bag the market crashes hard. Then everyone wins... accept the sucker holding 10 years worth of PLEX.
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Martosh Toma
Gallente Fraction Investment
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Posted - 2009.05.26 07:25:00 -
[39]
with tyhe new plex for fanfest passes offer prices may very well remain as they are now. a new demand has been created afterall
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Ms Delerium
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Posted - 2009.05.26 12:14:00 -
[40]
Originally by: WallyWorld79 One of my inactive accounts received that email as well. CCP is giving a one day pass and hopes that you spend that $300 M isk on a time card to extend for another month.
Here's a theory...Are too many people playing for free (with PLEXs) and "somone" not happy and bumping up the price? Bump up the PLEX price too high and people will have to start paying to play.
stupid theory
in fact the more people play for free, the more money CCP earns.
How is this? ehr... 2 of those PLEXes cost 35 bucks, this means someone paid 17.5 bucks to CCP for each PLEX. And you know regular subscription is less than 17.5 per month right???
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Dariah Stardweller
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Posted - 2009.05.27 11:50:00 -
[41]
Originally by: Martosh Toma with tyhe new plex for fanfest passes offer prices may very well remain as they are now. a new demand has been created afterall
Errr? What?? You can buy fanfest tickets via plexes now??
If that is the case I would say that would certainly drive the price up yeah....
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Iridescent Moon
Caldari Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.05.27 21:12:00 -
[42]
PLEX for fanfest will not change things as much as you would think. You have to take the number of people that are going to fan fest, have not bought tickets, have the ISK and wish to spend it on Fanfest tickets. The number is limited. I think that CCPs reason for doing this is that Fanfest tickets are probably sold in Kroner and PLEX are in ether Pounds or Dollars. The PLEX program is a hassle for them but they get better, more stable, currency out of it.
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Slave 2739FKZ
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Posted - 2009.05.27 22:08:00 -
[43]
Confirming we need more russian tycoons selling GTC for isk.
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Ms Delerium
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Posted - 2009.05.28 19:02:00 -
[44]
rofl at lemmings intelligence.
buy orders for 380m in jita 4-4. Hilarious.
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Mystafyre
Caldari Dark Materials Heretic Nation
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Posted - 2009.05.28 19:30:00 -
[45]
Originally by: Roland Deschaines Hey. PLEX prices have gone UP recently. a lot. They're closer to 400 mil than 300 mil these days. Does anybody know why, and where this is headed?
Macros got new graphic cards?
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.05.28 20:18:00 -
[46]
Originally by: Mystafyre
Originally by: Roland Deschaines Hey. PLEX prices have gone UP recently. a lot. They're closer to 400 mil than 300 mil these days. Does anybody know why, and where this is headed?
Macros got new graphic cards?
I had a spit take |
Ms Delerium
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Posted - 2009.06.01 09:16:00 -
[47]
theyre going down again. Yay!!!1
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Dariah Stardweller
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Posted - 2009.06.01 09:43:00 -
[48]
Originally by: Ms Delerium theyre going down again. Yay!!!1
They are? As far as I can tell it seems they have reached some sort of plateau.
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Digital Broker
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Posted - 2009.06.03 06:57:00 -
[49]
we've some down trend on plex's in jita atm, but 5d avg just crossed 20d, so in few days we will see if it is something that will last for a longer, or its just a correction.
someone seems to be a bit scarred tho, just take a look on the timecode bazaar and those fake wtb: 60d gtc for 850m threads. yeah right, ppl just love to pay 100m more than jita sell prices.
imo this baloon wount last for a long, and when it'll break, prices will drop like a bag of rocks (just take a look on history prices graph, 6 months period, and this beautifull waterfall after the end of speculation).
so if you sit on big stash of plexes, dont let the greed fool you
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Carniflex
Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project
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Posted - 2009.06.03 09:15:00 -
[50]
Broker has summed it up quite nice. Even a rabid lemming should be able to figure out what is happening by looking at 6 month PLEX graph. The shape of market is almost the same back then as it is now.
I do think however that this previous wave was not only PLEX manipulation in game. It is one section where real life economicks does indeed have some effect on ingame EVE market. Timecodes have also been historically affected by life rythm of your average player - ie if it's summer vacation time or not. If you look at discussion threads about timecodes for past few years.
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Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.06.03 18:40:00 -
[51]
FWIW, in the last few days it's been relatively easy to get a daily jita downward price cascade and not quite as easy to lemming the buys back up.
The only time people dogpile 1-2 unit buys on is when the profit margin approaches 15%. And it doesn't stay that way long if I have anything to say about it. And in summary, bigger blobs are the answer. Now what was the question? |
Packs Merlau
Killer Carebears
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Posted - 2009.06.03 18:59:00 -
[52]
It's interesting to note that the prices for PLEXes are higher in Jita than they are in the regional hubs (380s vs 360s). But that might be part of the fluctuation for all i know.
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Sir SmellyFart
State War Academy
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Posted - 2009.06.03 19:29:00 -
[53]
In my home region I noticed a small downwards correction the last few days but they have leaped up again today. I say the price is stabilizing at the 350-400 pricepoint and will stay there at least till the summer holidays.
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Dzil
Caldari Waffles Reloaded
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Posted - 2009.06.03 21:19:00 -
[54]
Originally by: Sir SmellyFart ....
Thank you, Sir SmellyFart, for that brilliant insight.
------------------------------ In EVE, when someone undercuts you, they're a lemming.
When you undercut someone else, it's skill/effort/manipulation.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.06.04 03:41:00 -
[55]
No one ever listens to me sometimes.
I told you all 30 days ago that it should stabilize around 350 to 370 I think. |
Sir SmellyFart
State War Academy
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Posted - 2009.06.04 10:50:00 -
[56]
Originally by: Dzil
Originally by: Sir SmellyFart ....
Thank you, Sir SmellyFart, for that brilliant insight.
Like everyone else I'm just throwing rocks and hoping I'll hit something.
I wish I had like 10 billion isk though, so I could try and profit from all this PLEX manipulation
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Dzil
Caldari Waffles Reloaded
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Posted - 2009.06.04 17:14:00 -
[57]
If you have money to prepay your EVE account, you could very easily profit from this manipulation.
1. Pay $$ for a plex. 2. Sell the plex for ISK. 3. When the market crashes, buy the plexes back and put them towards your account.
This is why I'm very surprised someone would attempt to manipulate the PLEX market - its the one market you can short sell.
------------------------------ In EVE, when someone undercuts you, they're a lemming.
When you undercut someone else, it's skill/effort/manipulation.
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Cergorach
Amarr The Helix Foundation
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Posted - 2009.06.05 08:00:00 -
[58]
Originally by: Sir SmellyFart
I wish I had like 10 billion isk though, so I could try and profit from all this PLEX manipulation
Yeah right, earn a billion by investing 10 billion and hoping that it will pay off in three weeks. You can easily earn a billion (in three weeks) with investing less then a billion, by trading other goods that have a far higher turn over rate...
You manipulate PLEXes with a few 100 billion isk.
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Sir SmellyFart
State War Academy
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Posted - 2009.06.07 14:33:00 -
[59]
Edited by: Sir SmellyFart on 07/06/2009 14:33:27
Originally by: Cergorach
Originally by: Sir SmellyFart
You can easily earn a billion (in three weeks) with investing less then a billion, by trading other goods that have a far higher turn over rate...
My market knowledge is not that good so I myself can't...
BTW: it seems they are getting pushed up slightly higher even atm.
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Breaker77
Reclamation Industries New Eden Research
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Posted - 2009.06.09 22:40:00 -
[60]
Edited by: Breaker77 on 09/06/2009 22:44:34
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria No one ever listens to me sometimes.
I told you all 30 days ago that it should stabilize around 350 to 370 I think.
Well they are now 450-500 million in Essence on sell orders with buy orders at 387 million.
I have not bothered checking Jita yet.
edit: Jita sell 440, buy 407 million
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Hibatchi
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Posted - 2009.06.10 03:58:00 -
[61]
Edited by: Hibatchi on 10/06/2009 04:00:23 I paid for one for my alt at 380, thinking it surely was peaking. Now its at ******ed prices and my alt is going into hibernation until prices settle back down. And if they dont...oh well. I dont need/want an alt so badly Im willing to pay that kind of isk for it. Edit: lame. cant even say the word re tard ed without getting censored? |
Sir SmellyFart
State War Academy
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Posted - 2009.06.10 09:55:00 -
[62]
Well, if things keep going the way they are: that is plex prices going up, and I see no reason why this trend should not continue since there are enough ppl with the resources to manipulate the prices higher and higher I'm gonna have to let go of my plans to fund my 2 accounts with isk.
1 will be funded with isk, other with creditcard. If prices go over 600 I might have to give up eve all together. Cant afford to pay for 2 accounts with creditcard and just having one is not an option as it bores the **** out of me. |
Iridescent Moon
Caldari Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.06.10 16:59:00 -
[63]
Originally by: Breaker77 Edited by: Breaker77 on 09/06/2009 22:44:34
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria No one ever listens to me sometimes.
I told you all 30 days ago that it should stabilize around 350 to 370 I think.
Well they are now 450-500 million in Essence on sell orders with buy orders at 387 million.
I have not bothered checking Jita yet.
edit: Jita sell 440, buy 407 million
Someone has been doing another round of price manipulation. With a fat wallet it is easy to do. Apocrypha was launched on the 10th so +/- 4 days is the best time to manipulate, old players coming back for M10 and current players starting alts.
RMT accounts will always fund using ISK and they are the last buyers that would stop buying PLEX so high prices would not stop them from buying. That gives you a baseline of buyers for overpirced PLEX.
Kazzac Elentria got lucky with his timing on his manipulation. Just after pushing the price up and as prices were about to crash CCP announced the PLEX for Fan Fest program. While the number of players doing this would be fairly small, many players would think that lots of PLEX would go to that. Therefor they would think that there would be a larger push for PLEX and jump in the market to make ISK. This reenforces the price manipulation.
Several other things kick in as well but make up a smaller part of the big picture.
PLEX are set for a heavy crash because too many people are trying to ride the manupilation. When it will happen though I can not guess. You can see by the 2 posts above me that the price point has been reached by players who consume PLEX. Once they stop buying... |
JitaPriceChecker2
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Posted - 2009.06.10 17:04:00 -
[64]
Todays sitation means less alt blobbing. Beside spending isk for pelxes fells like a second job. |
Bodrul
Caldari Skynet A.I. Systems
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Posted - 2009.06.10 21:58:00 -
[65]
whats the odds it will pass 500Mil tonight? |
Ms Delerium
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Posted - 2009.06.11 01:47:00 -
[66]
im ready for the lulz when bubble collapses...
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glas mir
Reaction Scientific
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Posted - 2009.06.11 04:44:00 -
[67]
I'm seeing some support at 425M with sells at 460M. The margins have widened up, the margin traders aren't as confident they can move them. No one wants to be holding the bag.
Unless something weird happened with the supply, such as ricdic having 100B in gtcs of the 200B he scammed, I don't see it breaking 500M.
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Frenden Dax
Dax Acquisitions
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Posted - 2009.06.11 05:04:00 -
[68]
Originally by: glas mir I'm seeing some support at 425M with sells at 460M. The margins have widened up, the margin traders aren't as confident they can move them. No one wants to be holding the bag.
Unless something weird happened with the supply, such as ricdic having 100B in gtcs of the 200B he scammed, I don't see it breaking 500M.
It was at 524 in Jita earlier, but apparently those weren't selling so the prices were lowered / people undercut them.
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Sir SmellyFart
State War Academy
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Posted - 2009.06.11 08:26:00 -
[69]
Originally by: glas mir I'm seeing some support at 425M with sells at 460M. The margins have widened up, the margin traders aren't as confident they can move them. No one wants to be holding the bag.
Unless something weird happened with the supply, such as ricdic having 100B in gtcs of the 200B he scammed, I don't see it breaking 500M.
Give it time. The thing is, ppl with multiple accounts are pretty much limited to paying with PLEX. Yesyes, I know, "$100 a month isn't that much money" blahblahblah. For most ppl it is, specially for something that is just a game. So as long as these ppl can afford PLEX they will buy them. And ppl with 5 accounts usually don't seem to have too much trouble to cough up 2.5 billion a month.
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The AEther
Caldari Agony Unleashed Agony Empire
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Posted - 2009.06.11 11:13:00 -
[70]
Originally by: Nathaniel Brix Interesting idea, but CCP doesn't really care how you pay for your account as someone had to pay for the initial PLEX to start with. And, lets be honest, most of the people who pay for their accounts using PLEX are hardcore people with a couple of accounts, otherwise known as the hardcore player. The hardcore sort who make the game interesting by making things, causing big battles etc..
CCP doesn't care how you pay for your accounts, but they do care if number of active accounts goes up, and as always they are experiencing the summer low. If this is true, then they are trying to hook up players who quit EVE by saying "hey, you don't even need to spend real money on it, come back and play a month for free". After a month some of these players will get out their real credit cards and start paying the monthly sub, being unable to make 300 mil ISK again. Mass-informing the playerbase that they can pay for game with ISK can very well be responsible for this sort of price hike.
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Carniflex
Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project
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Posted - 2009.06.11 11:18:00 -
[71]
Some guys with 5 accounts might not have problems, but some others do their homework. In this case it's simple calculation what is more profitable - extending the life of said alt for 30 days - or mothballing him and using that isk for something else. I have mothballed 2 accounts as a result of high PLEX prices that were not earning enough to justify their existence for example. My missionrunning wingman is still profitable for me and we are not yet at point where he will need to go. I'm well aware of the PLEX price above what I'm unwilling to pay even for him tho.
In many cases I suspect PLEX funded alt accounts are even corporate funded - cyno chains and so on. For them the price would need to go seriously higher before they start closing down.
At the end of day someone will end up holding the bag tho. It's always about timing - when the bottom falls off it's too late to exit. |
Sir SmellyFart
State War Academy
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Posted - 2009.06.11 11:44:00 -
[72]
Originally by: Carniflex Some guys with 5 accounts might not have problems, but some others do their homework. In this case it's simple calculation what is more profitable - extending the life of said alt for 30 days - or mothballing him and using that isk for something else. I have mothballed 2 accounts as a result of high PLEX prices that were not earning enough to justify their existence for example. My missionrunning wingman is still profitable for me and we are not yet at point where he will need to go. I'm well aware of the PLEX price above what I'm unwilling to pay even for him tho.
In many cases I suspect PLEX funded alt accounts are even corporate funded - cyno chains and so on. For them the price would need to go seriously higher before they start closing down.
At the end of day someone will end up holding the bag tho. It's always about timing - when the bottom falls off it's too late to exit.
Why do you think the bottom is going to fall off? Plexes were too cheap cause everybody who plays eve a few days in the week for a few hours is able to pay for them. Now, they are once again reaching the point of where it is getting 'hard' for the average joe to pay for 2 or 3 accounts.
At that point, the situation should more or less stabilize. Maybe a small correction but I certainly dont see it collapsing to the 300 million price point again. That would only be the case if it was a HUGE, HUGE manipulation attempt. And I'm guessing it's not.
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Flossing
Flush Gordon and The Toilet Ducks of Death
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Posted - 2009.06.11 11:44:00 -
[73]
Edited by: Flossing on 11/06/2009 11:46:12 My feeling is the price will top out soon and then collapse.
Why do i think this?
I expect as the price of them is so high, more people will decide its worth buying Plex, with Real money, to sell in game, as they will get much more return for their money, and this would/should then force the price back down, as more are available.
Also if this does happen, as in real life markets, when the prices start to slip, many people start to panic and try to sell all stock they have, flooding the market and collapsing the price.
Will this happen, i dont know for sure, but its what i expect to happen, and quite soon.
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Kalintos Tyl
Minmatar
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Posted - 2009.06.11 11:57:00 -
[74]
Originally by: Flossing Edited by: Flossing on 11/06/2009 11:46:58
My feeling is the price will top out soon and then collapse.
Why do i think this?
I expect as the price of them is so high, more people will decide its worth buying Plex, with Real money, to sell in game, as they will get much more return for their money, and this would/should then force the price back down, as more are available.
Also if this does happen, as in real life markets, when the prices start to slip, many people start to panic and try to sell all stock they have, flooding the market and collapsing the price.
Will this happen, i dont know for sure, but its what i expect to happen, and quite soon. I'm just glad all my accounts are paid up until into next year.
400mln / 30 days is 13mln a day , whats 13 mln a day? 1 lvl 4 mission ? They will hit for sure 1b+ for 60 days
60D GTC - shattared link |
Sir SmellyFart
State War Academy
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Posted - 2009.06.11 11:59:00 -
[75]
Originally by: Flossing Edited by: Flossing on 11/06/2009 11:46:58
My feeling is the price will top out soon and then collapse.
Why do i think this?
I expect as the price of them is so high, more people will decide its worth buying Plex, with Real money, to sell in game, as they will get much more return for their money, and this would/should then force the price back down, as more are available.
Also if this does happen, as in real life markets, when the prices start to slip, many people start to panic and try to sell all stock they have, flooding the market and collapsing the price.
For that to happen you would need to find more ppl willing to pay $35 dollar to get some in game currency. I think the ppl who can justify/afford that are a select group who are prolly allready in the PLEX/GTC business.
Furthermore, the ppl that are using RL cash atm will not have to sell as many as they used too, since the revenue is up. So while you might get a few other ppl entering the market, others will become less active and thereby reducing supply. Now you might wanna take a shot on which of these forces is the greater one but I'm sure you can only guess, like me.
I firmly believe that the most important thing behind the long term PLEX/GTC price is the effort it takes for ppl to gather the ammount of isk needed to pay for them.
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GoGo Rens
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Posted - 2009.06.11 12:21:00 -
[76]
Edited by: GoGo Rens on 11/06/2009 12:21:53
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Flossing
Flush Gordon and The Toilet Ducks of Death
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Posted - 2009.06.11 12:22:00 -
[77]
Originally by: Sir SmellyFart
Originally by: Flossing Edited by: Flossing on 11/06/2009 11:46:58
My feeling is the price will top out soon and then collapse.
Why do i think this?
I expect as the price of them is so high, more people will decide its worth buying Plex, with Real money, to sell in game, as they will get much more return for their money, and this would/should then force the price back down, as more are available.
Also if this does happen, as in real life markets, when the prices start to slip, many people start to panic and try to sell all stock they have, flooding the market and collapsing the price.
For that to happen you would need to find more ppl willing to pay $35 dollar to get some in game currency. I think the ppl who can justify/afford that are a select group who are prolly allready in the PLEX/GTC business.
Furthermore, the ppl that are using RL cash atm will not have to sell as many as they used too, since the revenue is up. So while you might get a few other ppl entering the market, others will become less active and thereby reducing supply. Now you might wanna take a shot on which of these forces is the greater one but I'm sure you can only guess, like me.
I firmly believe that the most important thing behind the long term PLEX/GTC price is the effort it takes for ppl to gather the ammount of isk needed to pay for them.
Good point, but i am basing my feelings on this, on that the price increase is not a natural market fluctuation but a manipulation by a player or group of players. The price increase was just way to fast for it to be just a natural fluctuation.
This has happened before a few months ago , although not to the same degree as it has now, and the price dropped as quickly as it rose after a few weeks. |
Sir SmellyFart
State War Academy
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Posted - 2009.06.11 12:31:00 -
[78]
Originally by: Flossing
Originally by: Sir SmellyFart
Originally by: Flossing Edited by: Flossing on 11/06/2009 11:46:58
Good point, but i am basing my feelings on this, on that the price increase is not a natural market fluctuation but a manipulation by a player or group of players. The price increase was just way to fast for it to be just a natural fluctuation.
This has happened before a few months ago , although not to the same degree as it has now, and the price dropped as quickly as it rose after a few weeks.
It might have started out as a manipulation but I doubt that is still ongoing. I think ppl are 'fine' now with having to pay roughly 100 million more isk per PLEX as we are not seeing any declines in the number of plexes being traded.
I think the PLEX market is maturing and that we will have future where PLEX prices will allways be pushed up against the point where ppl can barely afford them without having to stop playing EVE. What that point will be might fluctuate, but I'm willing to bet a large ammount of isk that it will NOT be on average around 300 million isk. |
Ms Delerium
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Posted - 2009.06.11 15:59:00 -
[79]
Jita is crazy atm, I think someone will be losing billions out of this... |
glas mir
Reaction Scientific
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Posted - 2009.06.11 16:45:00 -
[80]
Originally by: Sir SmellyFart I certainly dont see it collapsing to the 300 million price point again. That would only be the case if it was a HUGE, HUGE manipulation attempt. And I'm guessing it's not.
you haven't been watching closely. If you were watching the buy and sell orders placed, not just the lowest sell and highest buy, you might think differently. |
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.06.11 16:52:00 -
[81]
I feel like Vicki Vallencourt at the end of Waterboy
"Guess.... it ain't no guess. Time cards are going to settle at 350-370" |
Ms Delerium
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Posted - 2009.06.12 01:24:00 -
[82]
419 and going down
la la la
in your face, speculators |
Frenden Dax
Dax Acquisitions
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Posted - 2009.06.12 01:42:00 -
[83]
Originally by: Ms Delerium 419 and going down
la la la
in your face, speculators
I would not characterize 419 as 'down'. It's closer to 'less up'.
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Chaos Dreams
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Posted - 2009.06.12 06:41:00 -
[84]
Edited by: Chaos Dreams on 12/06/2009 06:42:09
Originally by: Frenden Dax I would not characterize 419 as 'down'. It's closer to 'less up'.
Heh, 'less up,' I like it. Sounds like a line from an Erectile Disfunction commercial. |
Sir SmellyFart
State War Academy
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Posted - 2009.06.12 08:38:00 -
[85]
Originally by: glas mir
Originally by: Sir SmellyFart I certainly dont see it collapsing to the 300 million price point again. That would only be the case if it was a HUGE, HUGE manipulation attempt. And I'm guessing it's not.
you haven't been watching closely. If you were watching the buy and sell orders placed, not just the lowest sell and highest buy, you might think differently.
Please enlighten me, as I'm kinda new to this sort of thing. |
Sir SmellyFart
State War Academy
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Posted - 2009.06.17 15:24:00 -
[86]
Still waiting for that epic collapse guys. Could it be that Ol' Smelly the market n00b is right after all?
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Bloody Rabbit
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Posted - 2009.06.17 16:51:00 -
[87]
Originally by: Sir SmellyFart Still waiting for that epic collapse guys. Could it be that Ol' Smelly the market n00b is right after all?
Collapse will come when the Iceland meetup happens, or a few days before that. Also the job market is turning around so those that work and play will soon unleash spare cash that was being saved for a rainy day. But I don't care as I pay for my accounts with one year subs
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Sir SmellyFart
State War Academy
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Posted - 2009.06.17 17:05:00 -
[88]
Originally by: Bloody Rabbit
Originally by: Sir SmellyFart Still waiting for that epic collapse guys. Could it be that Ol' Smelly the market n00b is right after all?
Collapse will come when the Iceland meetup happens, or a few days before that. Also the job market is turning around so those that work and play will soon unleash spare cash that was being saved for a rainy day. But I don't care as I pay for my accounts with one year subs
That would be early octobre then... I think it will stabilize or perhaps go down a bit during summer but still saying the long term trend will be up and up. I'm figuring the days of 300 million PLEXES are gone for good unless mechanics are changed.
It may hit 300-ish again at some point but it's not going to be the 'normal' price I bet. Guessing that will be somewhere between 500-1billion isk in about 12 months.
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