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5pinDizzy
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Posted - 2009.05.17 14:36:00 -
[1]
Let me give you an example;
Eve has over 300k subscribers, which means at least 150-200k should be real people.
Now the server has never been over around 50k odd people, but why?
Well there's timezones, and work and stuff, but how come it's never happend that one day, the server is at 50,000 odd people, then 20,000 odd from another expected usual playtime decide for a change that they want to log in at that time aswell, completely out of the blue.
That would make it 70,000 or even maybe more went and it got to 100,000, but stuff like this never happens.
Same with Jita, 50,000 could be online yet each time only a guaranteed fixed portion of the people already estimated by the server creators always go, it'll always hover around 600-800 on slow days and climb as high as 1200 on busy days.
How come 5000 people all at once don't just decide to go to Jita at the same time by some ill fate?
Of all the statistics in eve, why isn't there some massively disportionate result that pop in every now and then without any particular reason needed?
Now of course you learn at a young age that if you toss a coin that keeps landing on the same face lots of times it doesn't matter, as probability says as long as you keep the test fair and keep tossing that coin, the skew in your results will eventually work their way back to 50/50, expecting to be more accurate the more coin tosses that are recorded.
But why are humans this predictable? That's what I don't get.
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Jana Clant
New Dawn Tribe
New Eden Research
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Posted - 2009.05.17 14:42:00 -
[2]
 Originally by: 5pinDizzy
Well there's timezones, and work and stuff, but how come it's never happend that one day, the server is at 50,000 odd people, then 20,000 odd from another expected usual playtime decide for a change that they want to log in at that time aswell, completely out of the blue.
Because the laws of probability state that the probability of such event occurring is extremely low?
And as for Jita, even if more people than normal went there, the node would soon crash.
Additionally, you ask why humans are predictable. I ask you, why wouldn't we be predictable? Most of us live very predictable lives: sleep, work, eat, work, happyfuntime, sleep, etc. The fact you don't see noticeable oddities in the concurrent user numbers is just the routine-like behavior of modern society making itself apparent.
In any case, I'm sure quite a few people will often log in at odd times of the day, but to have enough people do that at the exact same time where it makes a noticeable difference is a lot less likely.
New Eden Research, where your research gets done!
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Morrn
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Posted - 2009.05.17 14:51:00 -
[3]
True randomness, doesnt follow any set pattern, thereby making it extremely unlikely that a significant portion of the playerbase would log onto at thier NON-usual playtime. Also Jita crashes around the 1800 mark give or take a couple hundred.
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Shea Klant
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Posted - 2009.05.17 14:58:00 -
[4]
There's a 43.6% chance we may never know the answer to that question.
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Rilwar
BlackStar Industrial
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Posted - 2009.05.17 15:27:00 -
[5]
Originally by: 5pinDizzy
How come 5000 people all at once don't just decide to go to Jita at the same time by some ill fate?
This should be an organized community event.
See how many times we can kill a node before CCP emorage's and refuses to restart the Jita node. 
Mitnal was here. |
Ak'athra J'ador
Amarr
Can't Decide
Balance of Judgment
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Posted - 2009.05.17 15:31:00 -
[6]
its like dropping a drop of color into a glass of water. the particles will bump the **** out of each other and the drop of color will disappear, coloring the water. probability states that at some point in time, all the color particles might get together again and form a drop.
every sane person is gonna tell you...its never gonna happen
pint of the story, probability sucks :)
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gfldex
Kabelkopp
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Posted - 2009.05.17 15:34:00 -
[7]
Originally by: 5pinDizzy
But why are humans this predictable? That's what I don't get.
You are confusing a single human with a crowd.
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Lady Spank
Amarr
Sekret Kool Klubb
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Posted - 2009.05.17 15:35:00 -
[8]
Raspberry milkshake
The quality of my replies is directly related to the QQuality of the opÆs comments |
Jana Clant
New Dawn Tribe
New Eden Research
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Posted - 2009.05.17 15:38:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Ak'athra J'ador
its like dropping a drop of color into a glass of water. the particles will bump the **** out of each other and the drop of color will disappear, coloring the water. probability states that at some point in time, all the color particles might get together again and form a drop.
No, probability doesn't state that, because what you described isn't a random event.
Originally by: Ak'athra J'ador
every sane person is gonna tell you...its never gonna happen
pint of the story, probability sucks :)
You suck.
New Eden Research, where your research gets done!
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Ehranavaar
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Posted - 2009.05.17 15:39:00 -
[10]
Large aggregations of people are predictable. the larger the aggregation the more predictable their actions are statistically. if you are interested in following up on this the collected works of Hari Seldon would be a good place to begin though the math is rather dense.
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Sniper Wolf18
Gallente
A Pretty Pony Princess
General Tso's Alliance
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Posted - 2009.05.17 16:31:00 -
[11]
I dont understand why no-one has organised a crash the node test the hardware day
And to finish, thank you for reading my sig
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If you are still reading i would probably hav posted by now |
Ferdio Ricotez
Gallente
Killer Carebears
United Interstellar Alliance
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Posted - 2009.05.17 16:36:00 -
[12]
Originally by: 5pinDizzy
Now of course you learn at a young age that if you toss a coin that keeps landing on the same face lots of times it doesn't matter, as probability says as long as you keep the test fair and keep tossing that coin, the skew in your results will eventually work their way back to 50/50, expecting to be more accurate the more coin tosses that are recorded.
That's not true. Every time you toss the coin the chances of getting either heads or tail is 50/50. A coin can't remember what you tossed before.
Also, players do test the server from time to time. When CCP said the server could now support 1500 players fighting in a single system, the players went ahead and tried to get a battle going with 2000 players.
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Gallente flying Minmatar |
SpaceSquirrels
Caldari
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Posted - 2009.05.17 16:39:00 -
[13]
Because to play eve you don't really need to play eve. I think you would see greater number fluctuation if you had a traditional exp system.
_________________________
I disagree... |
Ghoest
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Posted - 2009.05.17 17:18:00 -
[14]
The OP doesnt understand "probability" and the resulting improbabilities.
Wherever you went - Here you are.
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Akor Flandres
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Posted - 2009.05.17 23:32:00 -
[15]
85% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
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Blane Xero
Amarr
The Firestorm Cartel
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Posted - 2009.05.17 23:44:00 -
[16]
In a recent survey of human predictability, 4 out of 3 people agree'd that internet statistics are a proven flying pig.
___________________________________________
Haruhiist since December 2008
^Third Times a Charm^ |
ThaDollaGenerale
The Illuminati.
Pandemic Legion
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Posted - 2009.05.18 00:02:00 -
[17]
iirc the server went over 50k, to 51k on the day of the alliance tourney final.
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Blane Xero
Amarr
The Firestorm Cartel
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Posted - 2009.05.18 00:05:00 -
[18]
Current server record is 53,850
___________________________________________
Haruhiist since December 2008
^Third Times a Charm^ |
Quantar Raalsken
Gallente
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Posted - 2009.05.18 02:10:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Lady Spank
Raspberry milkshake
WTB...
=======
Homeworld Hamachi Network
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Mara Rinn
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Posted - 2009.05.18 02:20:00 -
[20]
Originally by: 5pinDizzy
Eve has over 300k subscribers, which means at least 150-200k should be real people.
Now the server has never been over around 50k odd people, but why?
Let's work with ball-park figures. Let's say that most sane people are either at work or at school. They have something like 3 hours a day of discretionary time after having met their obligations (washing dishes, eating dinner, etc).
Assuming that the playerbase is evenly distributed amongst all timezones, you would expect that at no point in time would you have more than 1/8th of the playerbase logged in. 1/8th of 300k subscribers is 37,500 - so why are there periods when 50k characters are logged in?
My experience with MMO players has been that they already fill every available hour of their time with their MMO(s) of choice. To have a sudden surge of thousands of extra players would require some significant event such as a heatwave (or cold snap) in Europe shutting down schools and offices for a couple of days.
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Maglorre
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Posted - 2009.05.18 02:34:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Mara Rinn
Assuming that the playerbase is evenly distributed amongst all timezones, you would expect that at no point in time would you have more than 1/8th of the playerbase logged in. 1/8th of 300k subscribers is 37,500 - so why are there periods when 50k characters are logged in?
Why? Because your assumption pretty badly flawed 
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Jobby
Minmatar
UNITED STAR SYNDICATE
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Posted - 2009.05.18 02:46:00 -
[22]
Posting for something to do. Too.
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Intense Thinker
Minmatar
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Posted - 2009.05.18 02:59:00 -
[23]
About 98% of statistics are made up on the spot
Pomp FTW!!! |
Neo Omni
Gallente
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Posted - 2009.05.18 03:06:00 -
[24]
Can we organize a mass meeting at Jita to discuss this? |
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