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cigarellos
Trade Federation Directorate
29
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Posted - 2012.05.26 06:27:00 -
[1] - Quote
Hello.
I was looking at Technetium buy orders and I just noticed only a dump of 458,820 units into buy orders is needed to crash down to 120k ISK buy price range and from there another 273,694 units to reach 95k ISK buy price at the time of this writing.
As you can see, more and more bulk orders are showing up undercutting others by several thousand on the sell side. Just last night someone from the North dumped in excess of 200k units filling the majority of my buy orders and bringing the buy price down to under 180k ISK buy.
The past week, close to 500k units of Technetium passed through my hands so I know those 732,514 units needed to crash the price to 95k ISK are CHUMP CHANGE.
So what is it going to be?
Is it time for OTEC to suck today's **** or should I move on to Felsic Magma?
Discuss.
-cig |
Myopic Thyne
Adamas Anima
2
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Posted - 2012.05.26 06:41:00 -
[2] - Quote
I decided not to risk it, looking like the price is gonna tumble hard so I dumped 100k I had stocked. |
Liberty Eternal
Red Federation RvB - RED Federation
78
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Posted - 2012.05.26 06:50:00 -
[3] - Quote
cigarellos wrote:Hello.
I was looking at Technetium buy orders and I just noticed only a dump of 458,820 units into buy orders is needed to crash down -cig
No - it's 458,820.24
Always add an arbitrary decimal point when making up numbers, that's the scientific way! |
cigarellos
Trade Federation Directorate
29
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Posted - 2012.05.26 07:01:00 -
[4] - Quote
Liberty Eternal wrote:cigarellos wrote:Hello.
I was looking at Technetium buy orders and I just noticed only a dump of 458,820 units into buy orders is needed to crash down -cig No - it's 458,820.24 Always add an arbitrary decimal point when making up numbers, that's the scientific way!
Noted. I updated the number with a new export.
Now it's 463,820 units in order to hit 127k ISK buy price. No decimals required but I see what you did there.
-cig |
SetrakDark
DarkCorp Capital Group DarkCorp Imperium
27
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Posted - 2012.05.26 10:34:00 -
[5] - Quote
short answer: yes |
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University Ivy League
1051
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Posted - 2012.05.26 11:27:00 -
[6] - Quote
A large gap between buys and sells is a warning sign in my book. Especially if it persists past a few days. This is more true in the cases where the maximum buy is well below the minimum sell.
When the gap gets too large: - It's a spike and buyers haven't reacted yet (market lag). - Buyers don't feel the need to increase buy order prices, because they're still being filled. - Buyers are skeptical that the spike is permanent and are trying to wait it out.
If the demand for the item isn't high enough and buyers can still get orders filled at the lower price points, then something will have to give - and it's usually the sell price bubble going 'pop' and deflating back down to 5-10% above buy orders.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1103
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Posted - 2012.05.26 18:59:00 -
[7] - Quote
Well, the natural price growth would have brought it to around 165k-175k by now, so I guess it won't fall below that, and it will go back to 200k in another 2-3 months even without cartel efforts. http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
cigarellos
Trade Federation Directorate
29
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Posted - 2012.05.26 20:13:00 -
[8] - Quote
Scrapyard Bob wrote:A large gap between buys and sells is a warning sign in my book. Especially if it persists past a few days.
This ^ -- the reason why I got rid of everything at 197k ISK.
Akita T wrote:P.S. Panic from people believing it will fall even more might briefly bring it to or even below 160k though, but that's actually a good thing for strong-balled traders, an opportunity to seize cheap stocks.
I'm going to make a bold and confident prediction that it will hit the 90k ISK buy price in the next 1-2 days. That's where everyone's buy orders should be at. Because why not??? I know, I know, I'm pushing it. But the cartels can't stop 100% of Technetium going into buy orders.
That being said, I took the "Liberty" of checking the numbers again, about 12 hours AFTER my initial post to compare the numbers. And the volume in buy orders has dropped to 239,782 units (in order to reach 127k ISK buy price) from 463,820 units. That's 224,038 technetium in about 12 hours going straight to buy orders. Panic much?
-cig
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
953
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Posted - 2012.05.26 21:26:00 -
[9] - Quote
Guys stop tickling my desire to start posting charts! Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Kontrak
State War Academy Caldari State
0
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Posted - 2012.05.26 22:42:00 -
[10] - Quote
I dumped, buy orders now hovering in the 170s, sell orders in the 180s.
I think what's happening is OTEC has accumulated too much Tech in their stock piles and now at critical mass we're seeing various alliances dump stuck and the goons trying to support what they can. About two days ago I had a large order filled from a member of TEST. Once that happened I knew that there was a rift going on so I immediately dumped what I bought.
The real question is if OTEC can't control their members by diplomatic means will they do it via force?
Dream is Collapsing? |
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
954
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Posted - 2012.05.26 23:57:00 -
[11] - Quote
Kontrak wrote:I dumped, buy orders now hovering in the 170s, sell orders in the 180s.
I think what's happening is OTEC has accumulated too much Tech in their stock piles and now at critical mass we're seeing various alliances dump stuck and the goons trying to support what they can. About two days ago I had a large order filled from a member of TEST. Once that happened I knew that there was a rift going on so I immediately dumped what I bought.
The real question is if OTEC can't control their members by diplomatic means will they do it via force?
Dream is Collapsing?
It's almost like someone smelled it 3 days ago. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1104
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Posted - 2012.05.27 00:37:00 -
[12] - Quote
Or, you know, whichever alliance has the largest production base (tell me it's the Goons, please) could simply welcome the price crash or even encourage it by keeping silent while others panic and strategically underbidding with sizeable but inconsequential (in the long run) amounts, eventually scooping up a truckload of it dirt-cheap when it hits panic level lows (essentially having just short-sold some of their stockpiles early), then slow-selling it when prices bounce back and the rest of the cartel regains some confidence. Assuming they don't have good reason to believe CCP will make an early move to "fix" it all, that is. Or they could spread the rumour that CCP will do that just to hasten the panic dumps.
Either way, it will be entertaining to watch in retrospect, and I hope somebody keeps then publishes the record of the magnificent bastardry that happened. http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
Marcus McTavish
EnC Heavy Industries
40
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Posted - 2012.05.27 11:54:00 -
[13] - Quote
There is a group of alliances that controls 80% of the tech moons. They work together to set the price. AKA they wont undersell, the Buy orders represent what ppl want to pay. the sell orders represent what they will pay.
This is not your standard supply and demand item, it is called a monopoly. |
Jester Seriphyn
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
0
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Posted - 2012.05.27 16:08:00 -
[14] - Quote
Marcus McTavish wrote:There is a group of alliances that controls 80% of the tech moons. They work together to set the price. AKA they wont undersell, the Buy orders represent what ppl want to pay. the sell orders represent what they will pay.
This is not your standard supply and demand item, it is called a monopoly.
Really? They won't undersell?
Goonswarm sold to me today WAY below their target price of 200k per unit, no doubt they're panicking as well.
Link relevant. http://i.imgur.com/yEfHt.jpg
When Goons are breaking their own rules because other CFC groups are then we know it's time to get out while we can. |
Marcus McTavish
EnC Heavy Industries
40
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Posted - 2012.05.27 17:34:00 -
[15] - Quote
Jester Seriphyn wrote:Marcus McTavish wrote:There is a group of alliances that controls 80% of the tech moons. They work together to set the price. AKA they wont undersell, the Buy orders represent what ppl want to pay. the sell orders represent what they will pay.
This is not your standard supply and demand item, it is called a monopoly. Really? They won't undersell? Goonswarm sold to me today WAY below their target price of 200k per unit, no doubt they're panicking as well. Link relevant. http://i.imgur.com/yEfHt.jpgWhen Goons are breaking their own rules because other CFC groups are then we know it's time to get out while we can.
30k is insignificant. You need to see that that GSF is not in need of isk, they can wait for buyers to pony up. no pun intended
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Jester Seriphyn
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
0
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Posted - 2012.05.27 17:41:00 -
[16] - Quote
When you consider 30k * 50,000 units or so it comes to 1.5 billion which is a nice but small chunk of change. What's significant is the rule in OTEC of not selling below 200k being broken by the Goonswarm logistics team who's in charge of the entire operation.
If Goonswarm is selling at ~170,000 p/u then what's to keep other CFC members not from selling at 169,000 then 168,000 when there's barely the volume in buy orders to keep it above 100,000 p/u. If they're smart they would follow the big bee before they get left with large stocks of over priced tech.
I really don't think the Goons care about any alliance other than the Goons and maybe TEST.
Furthermore breaking a directive like that is VERY significant. If you think they're only selling to me at that price then you're naive. |
Aina Sasaki
Red Core Paradigm Shift Alliance
339
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Posted - 2012.05.27 17:50:00 -
[17] - Quote
Cartels are fundamentally flawed if you can't manage to keep control of individual's desire for profit. Someone always breaks the agreement in order to earn a buck, and then others follow suit because of that. Before you know it... it's all over.
Now what i'm interested in seeing is the political ramifications of this. If it is indeed the goon's allies that are breaking their little cartel up, how will the goons respond? It just may be interesting... :o - Rei |
Valryon
Insight Investments Trade Federation Alliance
6
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Posted - 2012.05.28 09:06:00 -
[18] - Quote
i got bored and decided to troll tech before i passed out due to insomnia....... in other news it seems to continue to fall......................... |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
449
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Posted - 2012.05.28 12:47:00 -
[19] - Quote
Akita T wrote:Or, you know, whichever alliance has the largest production base...
saved me typing this out
the winners are the biggest tech players who can afford to just sit on their tech for around a month. the little guys gotta chase each other down to keep SRPs going, supers going into build, officer-pimped tengus for their directors, etc.
i think otec was a fine idea, but poorly timed. unfortunately you don;t get a lot of cracks at collusion when so much depends on trust in each other and faith in effectiveness.
that said, if goons have enough banked now, they can just manhandle tech and derivatives directly to achieve what they want, and **** the cheap price-fixing. I know PL has enough banked to **** with the market, but their extraction diffuse, and I'm pretty sure all their alliance income just goes into Shamis's wallet and sits there, plus they've never shown nearly the same interest in leveraging other forms of power beyond the political and military.
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Wibla
Backwater Redux Tactical Narcotics Team
55
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Posted - 2012.05.28 14:08:00 -
[20] - Quote
Valryon in the same alliance as the OP has been posting tons of 1 unit sells etc to chase the sells down.
Food for thought. |
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Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
451
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Posted - 2012.05.28 14:11:00 -
[21] - Quote
Wibla wrote:Valryon in the same alliance as the OP has been posting tons of 1 unit sells etc to chase the sells down.
Food for thought.
Yup, a pretty pathetic attempt at "manipulation" that will be snapped up by someone very soon. That said, it doesn't change the overall downward short-term trend, which in turn won;t change the overall long-term upward trend.
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EvilweaselSA
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
81
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Posted - 2012.05.28 14:15:00 -
[22] - Quote
uugh he had to try this **** while i was gone on vacation
i'll fix it by next weekend |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
451
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Posted - 2012.05.28 14:17:00 -
[23] - Quote
EvilweaselSA wrote:uugh he had to try this **** while i was gone on vacation
i'll fix it by next weekend
and this is why you should keep your manipulations subtle, otherwise people with real power (goons) notice what you're doing and squash you
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EvilweaselSA
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
81
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Posted - 2012.05.28 14:18:00 -
[24] - Quote
yeah spamming zillions of one unit sell orders to get idiots to undercut is...not subtle |
EvilweaselSA
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
81
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Posted - 2012.05.28 14:21:00 -
[25] - Quote
it might work somewhat, PL has a lot of moons that are individually owned and he can fleece them but i've been getting the production capacity to absorb excess tech ready for dealing with this sort of stuff, once that goes online i can start just sponging out the market anytime someone tries to crash and grab |
Arec Bardwin
Perkone Caldari State
532
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Posted - 2012.05.28 14:28:00 -
[26] - Quote
EvilweaselSA wrote:yeah spamming zillions of one unit sell orders to get idiots to undercut is...not subtle Well, someone DID undercut with large sell orders |
Wibla
Backwater Redux Tactical Narcotics Team
56
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Posted - 2012.05.28 14:50:00 -
[27] - Quote
Arec Bardwin wrote:EvilweaselSA wrote:yeah spamming zillions of one unit sell orders to get idiots to undercut is...not subtle Well, someone DID undercut with large sell orders
Well, some people drive without seatbelts too. The fact that people do stupid **** shouldn't be a shock to anyone |
EvilweaselSA
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
81
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Posted - 2012.05.28 15:05:00 -
[28] - Quote
Arec Bardwin wrote:EvilweaselSA wrote:yeah spamming zillions of one unit sell orders to get idiots to undercut is...not subtle Well, someone DID undercut with large sell orders there are a lot of idiots in eve |
EvilweaselSA
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
82
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Posted - 2012.05.28 15:17:00 -
[29] - Quote
Darth Tickles wrote:that said, if goons have enough banked now, they can just manhandle tech and derivatives directly to achieve what they want, and **** the cheap price-fixing. I know PL has enough banked to **** with the market, but their extraction diffuse, and I'm pretty sure all their alliance income just goes into Shamis's wallet and sits there, plus they've never shown nearly the same interest in leveraging other forms of power beyond the political and military.
PL has all its moons individually owned, and taxed in isk: they're the biggest pain in the ass to otec there is because you can't coordinate with that many people who own one moon and have taxes to pay |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
452
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Posted - 2012.05.28 15:32:00 -
[30] - Quote
EvilweaselSA wrote:PL has all its moons individually owned, and taxed in isk: they're the biggest pain in the ass to otec there is because you can't coordinate with that many people who own one moon and have taxes to pay
Yup. They have neither the proper organization nor the seeming desire to apply serious pressure on the tech market, even if they nominally have both the tech output and cash to do so, which leaves goons as the sole possible stewards of the tech price in my mind. |
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