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Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.18 12:01:00 -
[1]
I have a problem.
I own 5 plex and i haven't bought one in 3 weeks. I'm off the wagon.
Look at the Red/Blue lines.
Notice that at the start of May the amount of plex used was higher than the number created, thus putting sales prices in the hands of those with diminishing stockpiles. It's my belief that some of those people were extremely wealthy and went ahead with some very large scale market manipulation mid-May.
Speculators started jumping into the plex market and by June, we see that the plex creation rate (blue) was steadily growing beyond the plex usage rate (red) which flattened out at 800.
Let's look at the Yellow line, together.
Stockpiles built up a bit in Feb and then again in April. Notice that stockpiles have doubled in the last 2 months, once speculators jumped in and plex became widely seen as a valuable trade commodity. There are 16,000 plex sitting around right now collecting dust. What do the owners intend to do with them?
16,000 plex sitting around. That's a lot of ISK.
What portion of these were bought with ISK by people wanting to make a good return on an investment? What portion of these were bought with real money by people wanting ISK cash flow? What portion of these were bought with the pure intention of using them for game time?
The answers will determine if prices will drop DRAMATICALLY into the 225-250m range or stay fairly flat at 300m. I think there's a "floor" at 225m because I think if plex fell to that level, then we'd see a big increase in usage of plex for game time and perhaps even an increase in accounts. In other words, i think that 225m-250m would be a "sweet spot" of affordability for many new plex users, thus dramatically increasing demand at those prices.
One thing is increasingly clear to me... and hence why I am off the wagon.
I own 5 plex. I may use them. I may sell them. I don't know, but i now see that prices are very unlikely to go above 315m any time soon... (if ever again). There is simply too much of a supply out there, and the longer people hold onto these 16,000 plex the more anxious they will be to leverage them.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Lord TYMAN
You're Doing It Wrong
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Posted - 2009.08.18 12:02:00 -
[2]
im calling cool story bro
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Maria Kalista
Amarr Splinter Foundation
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Posted - 2009.08.18 12:04:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Maria Kalista on 18/08/2009 12:04:51 WTB 2 for 300 each.
Edit: just kidding.
Originally by: Jacharian This sounds like a bad idea. I'm in.
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Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.18 12:09:00 -
[4]
Edited by: Nyota Sol on 18/08/2009 12:11:08
Fascinating.
Here is the matching chart, both of which are from GM Grimmi's recent devblog on the PLEX market.
Volume increasing. Prices flat. Supply increasing exponentially. Demand flat.
Now, if only we could buy HOUSES in real life with plex...
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.19 01:16:00 -
[5]
i decided to sell some plex before the Plexapocalpse. I feel better.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
No Homo
Gallente Big Heart Industries
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Posted - 2009.08.19 01:27:00 -
[6]
I'm not really sure what to say. This is a well researched and well presented idea... in the eve forums.
Eve must be dying
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Pandemonium Heresy
Amarr Interstellar Commodity and Product Exchange
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Posted - 2009.08.19 01:36:00 -
[7]
Needs Moar DUST. _________________________________________________
FOR THE SLAUGHTER! |
Milla Jovo
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Posted - 2009.08.19 01:37:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Pandemonium Heresy Needs Moar DUST.
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Inspect0r Cl0useau
Vandal Empire
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Posted - 2009.08.19 01:39:00 -
[9]
Out: Plexes
In: RMT directly via PayPal to 14 year olds playing consoles to conquer your planets for you.
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Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.19 01:42:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Inspect0r Cl0useau RMT directly via PayPal to 14 year olds playing consoles to conquer your planets for you.
That is Step 8.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
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AmarrCitizen32897
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Posted - 2009.08.19 01:54:00 -
[11]
wat
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elscorcho
Remus inc
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Posted - 2009.08.19 01:56:00 -
[12]
Originally by: AmarrCitizen32897 wat
I just lol'd at this. ____________________________________
I also go by the name 'luvs2spooge'. |
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