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ac0lite
Doomchylde Industries Virtue of Selfishness
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Posted - 2009.10.15 19:25:00 -
[1]
So I took a break from eve back in April/May, and only just logged back on recently... When I left, Trit was going for around 4.10 isk/unit in the Forge, and now its about 2.5 isk. What the smurf happened? Did I miss an awesome market crash? Were Titans nerfed? Is Trit not cool anymore?
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mxzf
Minmatar Shovel Bros The Phenom Alliance
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Posted - 2009.10.15 19:37:00 -
[2]
Yeah, it seriously tanked around the end of Aug, IIRC. I'm not positive what has caused it (comments by anyone who knows the market well?) but I've heard speculation that people are biding their time and waiting to do any real fighting 'till Dominion's sov changes happen. Lately my corp has just been stockpiling, waiting for it to go back up again.
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Ghoest
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Posted - 2009.10.15 19:58:00 -
[3]
I think everyone stopped building super caps.
Wherever you went - Here you are.
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Johnny Silvertongue
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Posted - 2009.10.15 20:23:00 -
[4]
Its prety simple. They banned alot isk farmers/macroers. This resulted in ISK beeing worth more (since you cant buy it cheap on ebay anymore). You can see this easily on GTC prices (they droped from 800mil to below 600mil now) and ships/modules prices. Since isk is worth more the customers get more for their money and the sellers/producers are the arsed ones :)
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Freyus Dreborne
New Eden Industrial Services
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Posted - 2009.10.15 20:41:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Johnny Silvertongue Its prety simple. They banned alot isk farmers/macroers. This resulted in ISK beeing worth more (since you cant buy it cheap on ebay anymore). You can see this easily on GTC prices (they droped from 800mil to below 600mil now) and ships/modules prices. Since isk is worth more the customers get more for their money and the sellers/producers are the arsed ones :)
I think you explained it correctly, but backwards. The ban of the macros actually caused ISK to be worth less because of less demand. Trit is the throbbing heart of industry, when trit is inflated, so inflates the market. When the market demands less, producers will drop prices to try and sell their rapid-devaluing stocks. Essentially, trit's price shows the deflation int he market.
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Nomenne
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Posted - 2009.10.15 20:42:00 -
[6]
Also, the respawn rates on veldspar was increased during some patch this summer (mentioned in the economics panel at fanfest).
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Ghoest
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Posted - 2009.10.15 20:53:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Freyus Dreborne
Originally by: Johnny Silvertongue Its prety simple. They banned alot isk farmers/macroers. This resulted in ISK beeing worth more (since you cant buy it cheap on ebay anymore). You can see this easily on GTC prices (they droped from 800mil to below 600mil now) and ships/modules prices. Since isk is worth more the customers get more for their money and the sellers/producers are the arsed ones :)
I think you explained it correctly, but backwards. The ban of the macros actually caused ISK to be worth less because of less demand. Trit is the throbbing heart of industry, when trit is inflated, so inflates the market. When the market demands less, producers will drop prices to try and sell their rapid-devaluing stocks. Essentially, trit's price shows the deflation int he market.
Thats stupid. Johnny was correct. But I think there is also less demand for caps.
Wherever you went - Here you are.
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Badmin
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Posted - 2009.10.15 21:17:00 -
[8]
Edited by: Badmin on 15/10/2009 21:17:55 Not only trit.
For example, Ravens are worth half of what they were a year ago... Golems are down to 850M (700m at its lowest point due to game glitch)
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ingenting
20th Legion Sodalitas XX
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Posted - 2009.10.15 21:50:00 -
[9]
1029305th post about this crap.
why dont you search first?
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Sulg
Quicksilver Industries Amici Noctis
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Posted - 2009.10.15 22:06:00 -
[10]
Yeah, just wait until Dominion comes out though. Holy mother there will be a lot of cap ship deaths to be had. @_@
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= Warp speed is not fast enough. We must go straight to...ludicrous speed! |
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.10.15 23:19:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Johnny Silvertongue Its prety simple. They banned alot isk farmers/macroers. This resulted in ISK beeing worth more (since you cant buy it cheap on ebay anymore). You can see this easily on GTC prices (they droped from 800mil to below 600mil now) and ships/modules prices. Since isk is worth more the customers get more for their money and the sellers/producers are the arsed ones :)
If that would have been the reason, then all minerals would have fallen down equally instead of just a handful crashing. So that's not it, but good try.
Also, if you try to blame it on too much mining by banned people, tritanium price would have more or less remained constant (because, let's face it, belts near trade hubs would have been constantly emptied with or without macrominers) or even SLIGHTLY WENT UP due to the lack of tritanium (if for some reason some belts would have actually remained unmined).
No, the reason why tritanium sunk to new lows is that a lot more tritanium is being spawned in easier-to-harvest patterns in the area where it's needed more : now the highsec belts contain not just more Veldspar total, but they also respawn on a daily basis. More and easier to mine Veldspar in the right places means higher supply, therefore lower price. The only link between the bannings and Trit falling was CCP's (mistaken) belief that they needed to change highsec Veldspar respawn after they banned all those people, fearing a spike in trit prices (which, as explained, would have never happened).
Right now, the system is in a "state of flux", with a lot of cheap Tritanium available (because there's simply more to mine locally, and importing it from a distance is not feasable due to its volume) and the prices of other minerals still not having adjusted upwards to compensate, people actually end up selling ships for next to "insurance fraud" price. Tritanium might or might not start going up again, but other "bottleneck" minerals WILL have to go up. The most likely one is Mexallon (combination of price/availability/volume) or even the (previously) ever-cheap Pyerite.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife Dominatus Atrum Mortis
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Posted - 2009.10.16 01:14:00 -
[12]
Yeah; there are people speculating on trit, on mex, and all sorts of stuff for where the steam will go when the mineral basket returns to its usual self.
I would have done trit, but, missed the low.
I'd do Mex now, but, worried about political change in the drone regions and effect that'll have on mex prices (drones are a huge part of the supply, and there is no place in EVE more likely to experience serious and unpredictable political upheaval after dominion. Highly unpredictable uncertainty is bad.)
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BurnHard
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Posted - 2009.10.16 13:16:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Mahke Yeah; there are people speculating on trit, on mex, and all sorts of stuff for where the steam will go when the mineral basket returns to its usual self.
I would have done trit, but, missed the low.
I'd do Mex now, but, worried about political change in the drone regions and effect that'll have on mex prices (drones are a huge part of the supply, and there is no place in EVE more likely to experience serious and unpredictable political upheaval after dominion. Highly unpredictable uncertainty is bad.)
Surely if speculation is your thing, Zyd, rather than Mex, would be the commodity of choice. That's if the Drone Regions are going to be supplying less in future?
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Korizan
Red Mercury Incorporated
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Posted - 2009.10.16 17:06:00 -
[14]
Back in 2006 getting 1.98 Isk was a good price.
Anything above 2.0 was a selling spree And 3.0 was very rare.
So Trit really has just settled down to a normal level.
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Seminole Sun
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Posted - 2009.10.17 04:37:00 -
[15]
Originally by: BurnHard
Originally by: Mahke Yeah; there are people speculating on trit, on mex, and all sorts of stuff for where the steam will go when the mineral basket returns to its usual self.
I would have done trit, but, missed the low.
I'd do Mex now, but, worried about political change in the drone regions and effect that'll have on mex prices (drones are a huge part of the supply, and there is no place in EVE more likely to experience serious and unpredictable political upheaval after dominion. Highly unpredictable uncertainty is bad.)
Surely if speculation is your thing, Zyd, rather than Mex, would be the commodity of choice. That's if the Drone Regions are going to be supplying less in future?
If you assume that the baseline prices are underpinned by insurance then you should be looking at insurance core prices 2: Trit, 8: Pyerite, 32: Mexallon, 128 Isogen, 512 Nocx, 2048 Zyd and 8192 for Mega
Through that lens, Nocx is by far the MOST undervalued mineral.
Just my .02
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.10.17 07:43:00 -
[16]
Edited by: Lord Fitz on 17/10/2009 07:45:04 If you watched the Fanfest Economy presentation (either by being there or it's on YouTube) you'd hear they increased the size and frequency of veldspar re spawning in high-sec apparently. This actually has potentially some more permanent effects on the basket price but it is still held up by insurance costs.
Basically what Akita said.
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Durente Galaica
Amarr Viziam
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Posted - 2009.10.18 05:13:00 -
[17]
As has previously stated the bottleneck for tritanium is moving the stuff. Personally, I felt like increasing the spawn rate is a dev solution to a problem that could have been solved by giving the players the correct tools to solve it themselves. A short list of examples:
-Increase courier contract size limit to 800 m3 -New trade skills that allows additional courier contracts to be created -A new Super Freighter that can haul 10,000,000 m3 of ore or minerals only
Those have always been my biggest bottlenecks in the mineral market and IÆve been in it for years. Do I think trit prices will go back up? No, and I've love to be wrong cause I got loads of it.
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hauntingappiriton
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Posted - 2009.10.18 20:04:00 -
[18]
Why dose it matter what the prices of minerals are the market don't reflect real life supply and demand if oil goes up so dose fule but in eve mineral prices gose up people sell t2 ship on the market for build cost.e example raven cost 72.3 mill to build I but it in jita for 74 mill lmfao same thing with capital ships.....no profit. So any one smart stopped building cause b4 you got 90 mill for a raven that cost 68 mill to build a cariier got you around 200mill profit but not these day
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.10.18 22:04:00 -
[19]
Originally by: hauntingappiriton example raven cost 72.3 mill to build , but it in jita sell for 74 mill lmfao. same thing with capital ships.....no profit. So any one smart stopped building cause b4 you got 90 mill for a raven that cost 68 mill to build, a cariier got you around 200mill profit but not these day
A couple of days ago, if you used a ME:20 Raven blueprint (and there's plenty of those or higher), a Raven would cost you 72 mil with materials bought with buy orders, or 74.2 mil with materials purchased directly from sell orders. The Jita BUY ORDER price for Ravens was near 74 mil, but none were actually traded at that price, and the SELL ORDER price of Ravens hovered around 76.1+ mil ISK. At those prices, with a PE:1 blueprint (yes, just 1), you make a bit over 22 mil ISK a day per slot selling with sell orders after you bought the materials with buy orders, and you STILL make a bit over 8 mil ISK per day per slot if you bought the materials directly but are using sell orders to sell the product. Multiply that by 10 lines and 30 days, and you have 6.6 bil a month for the buy order minerals or 2.4 bil a month with minerals bought directly from the existing sell orders... so if YOU stopped manufacturing way earlier, it's YOUR loss... people still make a decent amount even under those conditions.
At the same time, a Raven's Platinum insurance cost is 32.625 mil ISK, giving you back 108.75 mil upon destruction, for a net gain of 76.125 mil ISK... so, THEORETICALLY, as soon as the price of a Raven goes below 76.125 mil ISK, cashing in on "insurance scams" becomes profitable (actually, it becomes profitable a bit earlier due to salvage).
Buying or manufacturing a Raven, assembling, boarding, launching and self-destructing it then re-docking to repeat the process takes at least 3 minutes (usually a bit more), so you can at best do that with 20 ships per hour, usually 15 ships or less (and it's boring). Having an additional friendly present at the self-destruct point to do some salvaging increases the income level by about 300k ISK per destroyed ship (probably more, probably less, depends a bit on luck too, but 300k is a good enough average for a Raven - other racial ships have better salvage averages due to higher prices for Armor Plates and Melted Capacitor Consoles).
The entry barriers to this "job" of "insurance scammer" are quite low... you just need L3 salvaging on one account and the ability to fly the ship in question on other accounts. Your income level is roughly 15x to 20x 300k+(76.125 mil - Raven sales price) per ship-suicider account per hour, which would have to be split with the one salvaging account. You can notice how even if the average market price is the at the breakeven point of insurance, you can still make a (rather low) profit from the salvaging of the wrecks - it just takes a while. So if you are a MANUFACTURER and you see sales prices for your ship going down noticeably below "insurance scam" level, instead of bothering to fight pricewars selling the ship for less and less, you could simply start blowing them up and salvaging their wrecks yourself... and keep going on with the manufacture
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hauntingappiriton
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Posted - 2009.10.19 00:25:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 18/10/2009 22:12:18
Originally by: hauntingappiriton example raven cost 72.3 mill to build , but it in jita sell for 74 mill lmfao. same thing with capital ships.....no profit. So any one smart stopped building cause b4 you got 90 mill for a raven that cost 68 mill to build, a cariier got you around 200mill profit but not these day
A couple of days ago, if you used a ME:20 Raven blueprint (and there's plenty of those or higher), a Raven would cost you 72 mil with materials bought with buy orders, or 74.2 mil with materials purchased directly from sell orders. The Jita BUY ORDER price for Ravens was near 74 mil, but none were actually traded at that price, and the SELL ORDER price of Ravens hovered around 76.1+ mil ISK. At those prices, with a PE:1 blueprint (yes, just 1), you make a bit over 22 mil ISK a day per slot selling with sell orders after you bought the materials with buy orders, and you STILL make a bit over 8 mil ISK per day per slot if you bought the materials directly but are using sell orders to sell the product. Multiply that by 10 lines and 30 days, and you have 6.6 bil a month for the buy order minerals or 2.4 bil a month with minerals bought directly from the existing sell orders... so if YOU stopped manufacturing way earlier, it's YOUR loss... people still make a decent amount even under those conditions.
At the same time, a Raven's Platinum insurance cost is 32.625 mil ISK, giving you back 108.75 mil upon destruction, for a net gain of 76.125 mil ISK... so, THEORETICALLY, as soon as the price of a Raven goes below 76.125 mil ISK, cashing in on "insurance scams" becomes profitable (actually, it becomes profitable a bit earlier due to salvage).
Buying or manufacturing a Raven, assembling, boarding, launching and self-destructing it then re-docking to repeat the process takes at least 3 minutes (usually a bit more), so you can at best do that with 20 ships per hour, usually 15 ships or less (and it's boring). Alternatively, you can shoot the station, the sentry guns take a while longer to kill you, but certainly less than the 2:30 needed for the undock/selfdestruct combo. You can lower that to AROUND ONE MINUTE if you just SHOOT SOMETHING to make CONCORD appear, they make short work of your ship (and you still get the insurance cash), but it costs you a bit of sec-status on each run start, and it's a good idea to have all ships assembled and insured beforehand. Having an additional friendly present at the self-destruct point to do some salvaging increases the income level by about 300k ISK per destroyed ship (probably more, probably less, depends a bit on luck too, but 300k is a good enough average for a Raven - other racial ships have better salvage averages due to higher prices for Armor Plates and Melted Capacitor Consoles).
The entry barriers to this "job" of "insurance scammer" are quite low... you just need L3 salvaging on one account and the ability to fly the ship in question on other accounts. Your income level is roughly 15x to 20x 300k+(76.125 mil - Raven sales price) per ship-suicider account per hour (or even up to x60 if you streamline it with CONCORD intervention), which would have to be split with the one salvaging account. You can notice how even if the average market price is the at the breakeven point of insurance, you can still make a (rather low) profit from the salvaging of the wrecks - it just takes a while. So if you are a MANUFACTURER and you see sales prices for your ship going down noticeably below "insurance scam" level, instead of bothering to fight pricewars selling the ship for less and less, you could simply start blowing them up and salvaging their wrecks yourself... and keep going on with the manufacture
I read this iand I see blah blah blah nickle and dime it blah blah sit it a station and try and get better buy sell order then joe builder and nickle and dime a ship take a huge standings hit blah blah
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.10.19 00:39:00 -
[21]
Originally by: hauntingappiriton I read this iand I see blah blah blah nickle and dime it blah blah sit it a station and try and get better buy sell order then joe builder and nickle and dime a ship take a huge standings hit blah blah
Poor baby got his brain hurt by big words ? Mommy says go out and kill some more NPCs to make rat tail soup.
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Chainsaw Plankton
IDLE GUNS IDLE EMPIRE
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Posted - 2009.10.19 00:44:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: hauntingappiriton I read this iand I see blah blah blah nickle and dime it blah blah sit it a station and try and get better buy sell order then joe builder and nickle and dime a ship take a huge standings hit blah blah
Poor baby got his brain hurt by big words ? Mommy says go out and kill some more NPCs to make rat tail soup.
but reading is hard sometimes
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Rip Minner
Gallente Freewind Ventures
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Posted - 2009.10.19 03:06:00 -
[23]
Edited by: Rip Minner on 19/10/2009 03:11:43 Edited by: Rip Minner on 19/10/2009 03:09:19 Edited by: Rip Minner on 19/10/2009 03:06:52 Ya basicly thats what I do is build ships mainly BS put them up for sale for 3months at alittle over the hard deck prices of Insurence what sales sales what dont gets the old Insurents fraud done to it with the salvage its realy not a bad thing as it keeps my miners payed and mining and happy.
Edit: As a side note my corp loves it when I call gank time and hand everyone and corp insured ships with the ideal of hiting low sec killing all you can but get blown up in the proces for the iskies :)
Ya new people to are corp are like you for real becouse there is a corp hanger that I fill with this ships and there told to take them and get blown up with them :) Is it a rock? Point a Lazer at it and profit. Is it a ship? Point a Lazer at it and profit. I dont realy see any differnces here. |
Elite Qin
Caldari APOCALYPSE LEGION
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Posted - 2009.10.19 03:59:00 -
[24]
I can't wait for dominion, now's the time to buy up that Trit! It's gonna skyrocket once all those big alliances need a big hit of trit.
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Bytemare
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Posted - 2009.10.19 14:14:00 -
[25]
Well, I¦m completeley on Akita¦s side to the decrease of trit price, but there must be one or two reasons more. Otherwise other ore prices would (or should) have been infected too, in my opinion.
Could it be a stockpiling-thing?. As far as i can see in the quotes nearly everyone thinks, trit will go sky high with the dominion addon. May it be that the meta-gaming alliances are stockpiling as well? The area i live trit is down to the well known 2,50 - 2,60 but the ore price for veldspar is FAR lower (if refinde on 100%), than that. My thoughts for the low veldspar price may be something like noob-trap for selling on buy orders?
And i see even a lack of buy-orders as a few months ago the volume traded was significate higher? Is this a try to stockpile VERY cheap ore?
So what do you think about this? When you follow my thoughts i can¦t go completeley with the idea of getting tons of isk after the dominion addon for trit, or are my ideas wrong?
Bytemare
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Jack Sabastian
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Posted - 2009.10.19 20:52:00 -
[26]
it's interesting, the main reason was given but no one seemed to pick up on it.
This point exactly was covered at the Economy session at fanfest
During the summer the spawn rate and amount of Veldspar in High sec was increased, so more Veld = more Supply = lower price.
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Cygwin Gaad
Caldari The Element Syndicate Black Mesa Project
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Posted - 2009.10.19 22:44:00 -
[27]
Edited by: Cygwin Gaad on 19/10/2009 22:46:51 Edited by: Cygwin Gaad on 19/10/2009 22:44:33 this is the exposition on trit in the economic panel in FanFest 09.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSgVeU7e9tU&feature=SeriesPlayList&p=E7A45268BF4505BC&index=7#t=39m25s
he says it clearly @ 40m 40s macroers were banned, veld respawn was boosted. -
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VonZeppelin
Amarr M.I.A Mining In Anger Vanguard.
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Posted - 2009.10.23 18:27:00 -
[28]
Good evening Science and Industry readers,
because the Gametimecards decreased in price from 800.000.000 ISK to 600.000.000 ISK , ISK itself increased in value. If you buy a Gametimecard, then you will get less ISK. The result is that ISK itself is valued higher than assets (ships and modules).
VonZeppelin M.I.A Mining in Anger
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