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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.07 00:52:00 -
[1231]
Originally by: Caldariftw123 You're posting about an item you have specifically already admitted you were trying to lower the price of so you can rebuy, so yeah I do think you are lying in general about the bubble being over .. whether it hits 200K/unit is another matter, but it's sure as hell not going to stall at the current price.*
The point I'm trying to make here is that there's nothing for me to be "lying" about. Even if my expressed beliefs about the various unknown elements weren't genuine, they would still be valid (as far as I am aware). Furthermore, I don't hold any position of authority on the subject in the first place, nor am I attempting to insinuate that I do, so my past honesty should really play no part in evaluating what I say.
Consider it as if I were playing devil's advocate, just because I don't believe my own argument does not invalidate otherwise valid points.
I am genuinely interested in the subject, academically and practically. I have presented a valid viewpoint and am open to refutations, elaborations, and disagreements of all sorts.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.07 01:20:00 -
[1232]
Edited by: Akita T on 07/03/2011 01:24:23
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Akita T ...very long-term price is most likely closer to 200k rather than the current price...
I'm seriously starting to doubt that. Ever since 80k pu, much of the supply has been bought up in large chunks by single buyers, leading me to believe that up to half of the daily average volume has been speculation-driven. Even if there was no speculation or even daily reselling, the 1m unit volume average is about the point where the lowball tech moon count estimates would put daily supply. So even best case scenario for long term price has the natural peak at 100k pu. Add the strong possibility that actual industrialist demand may be half that, a higher moon count estimate, and the continued existence of vast stockpiles, and I'd say we're at the peak of a bubble that will burst any day now. I'd say the only hope for a sustained price above 100k pu is bigger fools than the people still holding stockpiles now.
Well, in Jita, nanotransistors are trading at slightly below 20 mil units/day and fullerides at over 20 mil/day on average, have been doing so for quite a while now (at almost constantly increasing prices for a few months) and that represents very roughly 1 mil technetium per day (a bit less, but close enough)... and Jita doesn't exactly hold the absolute monopoly on advanced material trade (unlike moon mineral trade, where it's almost the only place they're being traded), but yeah, the Jita volume is overwhelming compared to the rest of the regions. However, I also wonder on one hand how much is being double-traded before consumption, and how much is not even put up on the market in Jita at all but instead turned into T2 components by whoever reacts it directly... or, heck, how much technetium is reacted directly instead of sold in Jita at all.
The real current industrial//reactor demand for technetium could be just about anywhere between 900k and 1.2 mil units per day. That would correspond to somewhere between 375 and 500 technetium moons' worth of permanent extraction. Sure, the low number does roughly correspond to the lowball estimate for technetium moon count, but the high number is a bit over the most optimistic estimate for technetium moon counts.
So, I guess it all comes down to something very simple... ...how many technetium moons do you believe there are, and how high do you think the actual technetium consumption rate is.
Me, I'm quite certain we're still burning noticeably more technetium than can be (or is being) extracted and we'll run out of stockpiles sooner or later, in which case, prices WILL be going up like crazy. You seem to think stockpiles are relatively steady or even increasing, which is the only scenario in which prices could possibly start going down.
I guess time will tell who's right, if CCP does not intervene. Or if CCP does intervene, let's hope they're at least going to offer us some statistics. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.07 02:56:00 -
[1233]
I agree with your moon count estimate, maybe I'd lean closer to 450 than 400. However, my impression from the advanced mats charts is approx. 800k tech units real demand for stuff built at 85k pu tech. Furthermore, there is a decrease in overall volumes with price increases, enough that I'd say 700k unit real demand at stuff built with 100k pu tech. To me, that's the break-even point for overall galactic output, saying 300k or so of the output never passes through Jita as advanced materials (being generous, in my opinion).
So even if I were to be generous, I can maybe say 120k pu stable price. However, I also believe that stockpiles have actually been increasing for the past month (this seems pretty obvious to me from the sporadic daily volume spikes and overall speed in price increase). Therefore, whenever people stop buying in, you're going to have a daily surplus and huge stockpiles.
I think the key difference, as mentioned, is people seem to think that end-product tech demand isn't going to decrease significantly with price. Looking at the advanced mats charts, I don't see how that is justified, not past 100k pu tech in my opinion and definitely nowhere near 200k pu or even 150k pu.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.07 03:16:00 -
[1234]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Furthermore, there is a decrease in overall volumes with price increases
Well, see, it doesn't work like that with moon minerals and T2 stuff. First off, the demand for T2 items in general is very inelastic up to the point where other non-T2 alternatives for specific items become attractive due to hyperinflated prices, then it quickly shifts, then it becomes very inelastic again... on top of a CONSTANTLY increasing demand trend due to the number of people able to use T2 stuff constantly increasing. Second, T2 item prices are very reluctant to change to begin with, and rather than T2 prices going up because some moon mineral is in low supply, the much more likely alternative is that other moon minerals drop in price to at least partially compensate, so that the price of T2 items only slowly rises. All in all, there is usually a very negligible volume decrease whenever T2 prices rise, they need to rise substantially to get a noticeable reduction in quantity traded.
Quote: enough that I'd say 700k unit real demand at stuff built with 100k pu tech.
Even 900k is a very conservative number, but 700k is completely out of the question.
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.07 04:40:00 -
[1235]
Originally by: Akita T Well, see...
This is the part I don't buy, and this is the part that a lot of people are taking on faith. It's not that I think it doesn't make sense or that it's an inherently poor analysis; it sounds fine. Rather, I don't buy it because I don't see it. I see a steady and increasing decline in advance mat and component volumes. It's not huge, but it's there. Furthermore, for the kinds of gains people are expecting for tech, it will only become more pronounced.
I do accept the point that the other moons will soak up a lot of the downward price pressure, but I think a lot of your expectation still rests on an almost perfectly elastic demand for t2 junk. I think this faith may be misplaced. More importantly, I think a LOT of people have taken this as gospel without really thinking about it for themselves.
Originally by: Akita T Even 900k is a very conservative number, but 700k is completely out of the question.
Sorry, I meant real demand, without arbitrage trading. I dropped a rough estimate of 20% reselling based on other markets that can soak up similar trading capital. For myself, I need to learn the advance mat markets to get a solid estimate of reseller share before I'm comfortable with that point.
I think people who are still holding and are even still buying in need to take a long look at this idea of elastic t2 demand. Just because it happened with dyspro doesn't mean it's going to happen again with tech. I can just as easily buy a tale of t3s and faction ships/mods filling the gap seamlessly. I know I'll be taking a long look at t2 demand before I'd ever consider buying into tech and derivative products for the long term.
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.03.07 10:53:00 -
[1236]
Currently Technetium (T) is "money in the bank" (making interest) And it's been like that for a very long time.
This from the perspective of someone who has a lot of "idle ISK" (tens of billions and above)
You can either leave that ISK in your wallet, or dump it into T.
And it's a safer investment than most any other you can find.
I mean - What else to do with 10B+ ISK atm?
And it's not like it's hard to get rid of again either. Even if you are in a hurry and dump it all into buy orders, if you've held your stock for just a little while, you'll *still* come out on top.
As I happen to know that there's a lot of "idle ISK" heavy people out there (*), it stands to reason that "some percentage" of those are "dumping" their ISK into T. (*)If BMBE where to issue say a 200B-300B bond, I'm fairly sure it would get filled almost instantly going by just the people I know.
The above simply to argument that a certain part of the continued price increase of T that we are seeing, are created by these people.
Some might be in there long term, some might cash out and buy in continually (to decrease their exposure) - But overall they all contribute to the continued price increase.
The other part of the equation is of course the supply/demand side of things (number of moons/T2 ships needed etc etc as others have described)
How much each is contributing to the price increase is completely impossible to know.
The point I'm getting to however is : At *some time* the price of T will become prohibitive (I personally don't think we are anywhere near that point yet though) and the price increase will start to flatline.
When that happens things will get very interesting. Those invested with "idle ISK" will start to pull out (might as well have the ISK in your wallet, if it isn't increasing in value anyhow).
The interesting bit will be just how fast those people pull out - Ie. if they panic or not. I've said it before and I'll say it again : I really think people are underestimating the stockpiles out there - By several magnitudes as well.
The potential for a super implosion of T prices are immense. We've had it happen once already, almost a year ago, it was not what I'd call a super implosion however, but it was bad enough for some people. And it was after an all to obvious bubble event - It did however keep T prices stable (very slow climb) for a very long time.
Once we reach this (potential) super implosion, is when we'll see the "true price" of T, as the impact of it will keep T prices at a steady for a very very long time imo - As almost everyone will finally have dumped their stock, and won't be willing to get back in again for a good long time.
I don't think it'll happen anytime soon though - it's months if not a year+ away yet.
BIG Lottery |
Jakob Thorngod
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Posted - 2011.03.08 22:58:00 -
[1237]
i really love all the obvious and subtle psychologic manipulation attempts in this thread
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Ludacrys
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Posted - 2011.03.08 23:38:00 -
[1238]
When this bubble bursts a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money
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Fulbert
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.03.09 00:17:00 -
[1239]
Originally by: Jakob Thorngod i really love all the obvious and subtle psychologic manipulation attempts in this thread
80% of non-bonds/IPO related messages in MD are market manipulation.
BTW the real market bubble will start if CCP announce the Platinum Technite alchemy reaction. Many POS's expected to be deployed just for alchemying Tech -> POS planetary fuel needs expected to increase -> speculative demand for these -> POS costs explodes -> all T2 activities meltdown Planetary Interaction + massive incentive to POS deployment = BOOM. ____________________________________ Fulbert Industrialist - Casual Trader EVE Online, the best browser MMO of them all |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.09 00:39:00 -
[1240]
Originally by: Fulbert BTW the real market bubble will start if CCP announce the Platinum Technite alchemy reaction.
Well, that's the lazy and fast way of doing it, and they could have done it just as well at the time Dominion rolled in. POS fuel bubble up, whatever moonmineral will be able to replace Technetium up, and Technetium more or less down, depending on just how wasteful the alchemy reaction will be. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Durin Sarga
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Posted - 2011.03.09 00:49:00 -
[1241]
what if they tied moon harvest array output to a combination of quantity on the moon (which hasn't been activated yet) and Industrial Index of the system?
Then manpower/technique for developing stable flow would be taken into account. When things are calm, Tech supply goes up, when wars get greenlit, Tech supply goes down.
Meh, it's an idea.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.17 16:16:00 -
[1242]
Well 100k pu seems to be the psychological barrier for speculators, and industrialists seem to be waiting for the derivative products' prices to rise before buying in to react. We didn't, however, see a panicked sell-off, so speculators seem comfortable with this 100k pu stable point.
The price rise in tech from 80-90k pu is just passing through advanced mats right now with a small bump in fullerides and some pressure on nanotrans, so we will be able to observe the effect on t2 final product demand soon. However, I am more interested in the effect of the 90-100k pu tech price jump will eventually have on t2 demand, though that effect is only as far as a plat tech shortage right now.
So we'll see what effect, if any, the last two 10%+ price jumps have caused in t2 demand over the next three weeks; the first in a week and then another two more weeks for the second. If the effect is minimal, as Akita is predicting, then I'll be willing to buy in again up to at least 120k pu.
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.03.17 19:55:00 -
[1243]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Well 100k pu seems to be the psychological barrier for speculators
The usual effect of "BIG Round Numbers"
BIG Lottery |
RAW23
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Posted - 2011.03.17 19:59:00 -
[1244]
Originally by: TornSoul
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Well 100k pu seems to be the psychological barrier for speculators
The usual effect of "BIG Round Numbers"
Shameless
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.20 14:04:00 -
[1245]
Finally Tech has bust through the psychological 100k barrier. Now onto 120k.
I think i may just give all my ISK to Akita T and let her keep 50% of the profit as i'd still end up stinking rich!
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.20 18:13:00 -
[1246]
Heh, somebody did clear most orders up to 118k I see... don't think it will hold for long though, buy orders are still below 100k... still, you never know. Also, not selling the rest before 125k this time which will probably need another month minimum, IMO... but again, you never know. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.20 19:12:00 -
[1247]
Tech is like magic. If we keep buying it, the price keeps going up and we get richer.
:P
I also think it's a little early for 120k pu stable, so we'll probably see a drop back down close to 100k pu. However, same as Akita, I won't be shocked by a continued speculation frenzy keeping the price up this high.
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Ethilia
Freelance Excavation and Resistance United Outworlders
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Posted - 2011.03.20 20:48:00 -
[1248]
Originally by: Akita T Heh, somebody did clear most orders up to 118k I see... don't think it will hold for long though, buy orders are still below 100k... still, you never know. Also, not selling the rest before 125k this time which will probably need another month minimum, IMO... but again, you never know.
Well I think I'll destroy the spread by upping buy orders and watching the bots (be they of the digital or fleshy variety) follow mindlessly in their rush to work the buy/sell spread. Wow, they're fast! 106k in less than 1 minute!!
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Brokara Ryvel
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Posted - 2011.03.21 09:32:00 -
[1249]
This is amazing to watch. I just wish i'd jumped on the band wagon a little sooner.
My question to the MD elite is if CCP nerf Tech then what would be the logical way to do it and what would take over?
After reading the first few pages of this post i basically can't make heads nor tails of it, but would love to be able to jump onto the next 'Tech' and become super rich.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.21 14:59:00 -
[1250]
Originally by: Brokara Ryvel if CCP nerf Tech then what would be the logical way to do it and what would take over?
That question has many different possible answers, because, quite frankly, there is no single most logical way to do it, and most of it is ultimately a matter of taste. Besides, CCP seldom does the logical thing as far as the industry/economy/market is concerned, even if one rubs their face in it. Case in point : this thread.
They could add new alchemy reactions for second or even third tier moongoo and/or they could buff alchemy "exchange ratios" even more (used to be 1:20, now it's 1:5, but even 1:2 would not be inconceivable). Or they could add moon minerals to w-space moons, but seed them MANUALLY to compensate for whatever's lacking in k-space. Or they could add ways to get moon minerals from something other than moon mining. Or they could just rejiggle the build ratios again. Or god knows what else we haven't thought about, or thought about and internally rejected for some reason but CCP got the bright idea it might work.
What would "take over" would strongly depend on which one of the possible solutions was adopted, and even then, it depends a lot on the fine-tuning of the solution. The result could be anything from "this previously worthless material nobody would have thought of is now valuable as hell" to something like "everything is now dirt-cheap, hope you dumped your stocks long ago", but even "nothing really changes other than what used to be outrageous becomes slightly less so" is quite possible.
Sorry, one can't predict what will happen by hazarding a guess... if this thread would teach you anything, it should be the fact that a lot of digging for accurate intel and subsequent calculating is needed before you can make any calls. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.21 19:14:00 -
[1251]
Well not only has the sell price dropped back down to 104k pu, but there doesn't even appear to be much buy order support in the high 90ks, never mind 100k+. This is shaping up to be the second clear failure of a blatant attempt to run the price up to 120k.
I guess that 100k psychological barrier is really dampening the speculative fever that got us from 80k-100k pu so fast.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.22 05:55:00 -
[1252]
I dunno. Not many orders between 104k and 120k. Looks like a last ditch attempt at pushing the price down before it explodes again.
Maybe I'm wrong. Who knows?
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.22 06:18:00 -
[1253]
Originally by: Herman Klaus I dunno. Not many orders between 104k and 120k. Looks like a last ditch attempt at pushing the price down before it explodes again.
Maybe I'm wrong. Who knows?
I do. You're wrong. There were no big orders pushing the price down. The biggest order was 400k units, and it was placed after it hit 105k pu on orders no bigger than 100k units, and it's being nibbled down, so obviously not a blocking order.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.23 19:28:00 -
[1254]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar I do. You're wrong. There were no big orders pushing the price down. The biggest order was 400k units, and it was placed after it hit 105k pu on orders no bigger than 100k units, and it's being nibbled down, so obviously not a blocking order.
Seems i was wrong. Badly. It looks like the bubble has burst. Down to 95k and dropping. Everyone is panic selling.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.03.23 20:10:00 -
[1255]
Originally by: Herman Klaus
Originally by: Elise DarkStar I do. You're wrong. There were no big orders pushing the price down. The biggest order was 400k units, and it was placed after it hit 105k pu on orders no bigger than 100k units, and it's being nibbled down, so obviously not a blocking order.
Seems i was wrong. Badly. It looks like the bubble has burst. Down to 95k and dropping. Everyone is panic selling.
Do you ever post anything that's not a manipulation attempt?
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.23 20:19:00 -
[1256]
Maybe he's just really excitable?
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.23 20:41:00 -
[1257]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Maybe he's just really excitable?
This
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.23 21:23:00 -
[1258]
Sounds like he could have a bright future as political commentator or maybe even a news anchor _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.24 01:48:00 -
[1259]
Besides, if you look at the graph from slightly before December 2010 up until today, a minor depression after a small spike at the end of reasonably steady climb stretch (just happened) followed by a rather noticeable spike (possibly about to happen) is what you expect to see, since we've already had 4 such cycles (the first one is far less clear, but still noticeable), and this would be the 5th.
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.03.24 03:17:00 -
[1260]
here is the dirty secret of technetium:
all of us sellers are raking in so much money at a time we really can't be bothered with structuring the orders so they don't nuke the market, so you see these sort of cycles as alliances dump onto the market randomly
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