Pages: 1 2 [3] :: one page |
|
Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 0 post(s) |
Clementina
Jericho Fraction The Star Fraction
|
Posted - 2009.12.22 03:55:00 -
[61]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: fuer0n by your maths if you play roulete (red or black) and start betting with 1x currency and tripple the bet every time you lose you're on a sure winner. the fact is you have a 50/50 chance at the start of every bet and no ammount of math you calculate from the previous bets makes any difference at all. not factoring in the zero.
The zeroes and the table limits exist for the precise purpose of foiling that strategy, which could otherwise work if you had a sufficiently large purse.
Actually it's the house limits that exist to foil that kind of strategy. The zero exists in order to provide a house advantage. (The house pays 2/1 if you bet red or black, but your odds of getting those colors are actually slightly less than 0.5, because of the 0 (and double 0 in some places))
|
Opal Jones
Caldari Eclipse Phase
|
Posted - 2009.12.22 08:22:00 -
[62]
I ran 10 BS invention jobs and got 6 successes back, if invention is broken now I like it
|
Lord Helghast
|
Posted - 2009.12.22 14:05:00 -
[63]
UPDATE: 50 runs, 24 success, looks like you have to use much larger samples and it works out in the end.
|
Pesky LaRue
Minmatar Brotherhood Of Fallen Angels
|
Posted - 2009.12.23 06:22:00 -
[64]
from 403 projects in the last year (that's 7549 individual inventions), i had a success rate of 39.7% which is about right given the variety of BPO's I invented. I saw a couple of absolute failures (I usually do things in batches of 20, i had a few where i got 0 successes) and one time got 18/20 successes in a row, but overall it's always been pretty consistent.
haven't really noticed a change since the patch. I got 14/20, 12/20 and 9/20 earlier today, seems perfectly random to me.
|+ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ +|
|
Victor Papa
|
Posted - 2009.12.27 15:19:00 -
[65]
Originally by: fuer0n
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 06/12/2009 19:11:11
by your maths if you play roulete (red or black) and start betting with 1x currency and tripple the bet every time you lose you're on a sure winner. the fact is you have a 50/50 chance at the start of every bet and no ammount of math you calculate from the previous bets makes any difference at all. not factoring in the zero.
Most tables will have a limit which usually equates to doubling down 4 times. Cheap tables usually min at $5 and max at $100 on the side. So 5, 10, 20, 40, 80... So when you get to plopping down $80, you have risked $155 to win $5. If you lose again, which is more probable, you have just lost that $155. Doubling down is a long term strategy for collossal failure. There's a 1 in 25 chance you'll lose doubling down to $80. So 24 wins $5 = $120. 1 in 25 chance of losing = -$155. $120 - 155 = -$35.
(Assumes table with 0,00)
|
Nahkep Narmelion
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
|
Posted - 2009.12.29 09:50:00 -
[66]
Originally by: Pesky LaRue from 403 projects in the last year (that's 7549 individual inventions), i had a success rate of 39.7% which is about right given the variety of BPO's I invented. I saw a couple of absolute failures (I usually do things in batches of 20, i had a few where i got 0 successes) and one time got 18/20 successes in a row, but overall it's always been pretty consistent.
haven't really noticed a change since the patch. I got 14/20, 12/20 and 9/20 earlier today, seems perfectly random to me.
This mirrors my results post patch too. If its broken I'm not seeing it and if it is broken my guess is we ALL would be seeing it. I doubt invention is broken for just specific characters and not others. That is what people posting these threads would have us believe.
"Oh sure, its not broken for you, but it is form me!!"
|
B1FF
|
Posted - 2009.12.29 14:25:00 -
[67]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 06/12/2009 18:56:40
Originally by: Lord Helghast am i missing something?
Only some basic statistics knowledge.
Your particular case is not completely incredible - with a 45% success chance (i.e. 55% failure chance) and just 10 attempts made, you have roughly 1-in-400 chances of a complete failure streak even under perfectly "normal" conditions. Heck, you would have had a roughly 1-in-3000 chance of a 10/10 success streak too.
The EVE RNG at least SEEMS to be quite "streaky", even if it it might be not (it could still be "too streaky", but we don't really have a sure way to tell).
No idea if anyone is looking at this any more.
On the subject of streaks: Even if the EvE RNG is streaky would it even matter. When you unload your ten jobs those ten numbers are not pulled sequencially. Say there are 25K people on the server. A low/mid number based on current usage. How many operations does the RNG perform during the time between unloading jobs. Every single NPC, player, and drone firing a gun is going to use numbers from the RNG. There are many other operations that will use the RNG, missions, exploration sites spawning, etc.
RNG is going to be per sub server so maybe if you're in a quiet backwater at off time they might but if there's _any_ combat on your sub server they won't be.
What's to say your invention results can even be considered a streak?
|
Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
|
Posted - 2009.12.30 07:13:00 -
[68]
Originally by: Ehbdfgf Intaki Everybody assume that this process is random ! Did CCP ever gives us the real algorithm they use. - no I still do thousand of Invention and reverse engineering and i continue to think they manipulate the result at some point but eh, its a game and i still enjoy it.
Ehb
The algorithm they use is
Invention_Chance = Base_Chance * (1 + (0.01 * Encryption_Skill_Level)) * (1 + ((Datacore_1_Skill_Level + Datacore_2_Skill_Level) * (0.1 / (5 - Meta_Level)))) * Decryptor_Modifier
The base chances were given out in old database dumps. They don't need to give out an algorithm for random numbers because they don't need to write one. It's built into any modern programming language, there's nothing special about Eve in that respect.
Quote: ofc its manipulated somehow, it's a man made script, probably written to keep it around a certain overall % of success.
You do not need to 'do' anything to keep it in a certain % of overall success, you just need it to have a set success rate and then a large sample size. You are imagining them writing code they do NOT need to write for this effect to exist, it exists naturally. Manipulating it directly would get you laughed out of any peer group in this area. There's no chance that CCP are this stupid. Players on the other hand.....
|
Sgt Blade
Caldari Veto. Veto Corp
|
Posted - 2010.01.02 00:33:00 -
[69]
Edited by: Sgt Blade on 02/01/2010 00:33:26 For people who say they have done 100 invention runs and don't get the right % then all I can say is hat you have not done enough. You need to do thousands of runs because 100 attempts is not enough.
A quick experiment would be to generate 100 numbers between 1 and 100. You would think that you would have a 10% chance of one random number of between 1 and 100 to be 10 or less so if you generate 100 numbers you would think to get at least 10 of these numbers to be 10 or less give or take a few.
My first attempt, I get 3 numbers which were 10 or less Second attempt, I get 9 numbers which were 10 or less Third attempt, I get 9 numbers which were 10 or less Fourth attempt, I get 6 numbers which were 10 or less Final attempt, I get 2 numbers which were 10 or less
As you can see, even with 5 tries of 100 numbers, I only managed to get 29 out of 500 numbers to be 10 or less.
Hypnotic Pelvic Thrusting Level 5 |
|
|
|
Pages: 1 2 [3] :: one page |
First page | Previous page | Next page | Last page |