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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.08 04:54:00 -
[1]
Background
As most of you know Eve in game insurance for ships holds (usually) the total mineral basket to a minimum value. When the total value of the mineral basket drops under a certain value it becomes profitable to build ships, insure them (platinum) and self destruct them.
For all my calculations I have a mineral basket price equiavlent to building a ROKH from a BPO (ME 20) using only minerals purchased directly from Jita sell orders.
If conditions are normal the mineral basket should be worth at least 115.5M ISK, which is the break even point between production and ship insurance.
Operation
At the beginning of November (as many of you know) the mineral basket had dropped to 102.6, so I could make at least 10M on every Rokh I produced.
I devised a plan wondering if I could significantly manipulate the Jita mineral market. Obviously I didn't have the funds to try and directly manipulate the market so I could only attempt this via a brute force attack on the insurance side, by manufacturing and blowing up ships.
Initially I purchased all Rokh's and Abaddon's in Jita under 115.5 and 126M respectively (126 is Abaddon insurance point) and did so through the course of November, totally 365 ships under insurance value. There was no way I could pop all the ships my self (I did about 100) so I sold to contract mainly via SCC channel at 2M under insurance for both parties to make a good profit.
Secondly I started a massive Rokh construction program building 200 Rokh's at a time a few jumps from Jita using 10 run BPC's (quickly wiping out the entire Forge contract market). In total I built 1360 Rokh's in November at an average price of 106.45M (including BPC cost) and an average sell price of 113.5M.
Now to move all these minerals (200B units) would have required 2300 Freighter trips. Luckily I had arranged some massive contracts with mining corps only leaving 420 freighter loads to be moved from Jita. I used many courier contracts and specialist companies of which one stood out (RF Freight).
With all this huge uptake in minerals I thought the market would easily move. Well it didn't, so I went public hoping to push the market further with more entrants. After going public the mineral basket started to move but not by very much.
After all the work the mineral basket currently stands at 110.2 which is still under insurance.
I FAILED
I can't believe after consuming 150B units of Trit alone the market didn't budge, or at least not by much.
Even though my project failed (I did make about 10B in profits from it), I did learn some interesting facts:
1. No matter how much you buy at Jita people will rush to fill any voids.
2. Pyerite is *relatively* the scarcest mineral (on 5 occasions I wiped the entire supply in Jita)
3. RF Freight (Red Frog run by Locin WeEda) is easily the best freight service in Eve. They handled 5-10B ISK contracts requiring 20-40 freighter loads in 24 hr periods easily.
4. Big mineral basket winners in November were Pyerite and Nocx which I wouldn't have predicted. Relative scarcity I suppose.
5. Surprised that the basket is still as low right now.
note: I still have 159 Rokh's left (2 jumps from Jita) for sale at 113.5M ISK each (2M profit per ship). If anyone wants any eve-mail me.
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.08 06:56:00 -
[2]
 Originally by: Lui Kai
Heh, was wondering when someone would make a post like this.
I'll come forward, too. I accounted for 13,662 Abaddons created for someone else to turn into dust, in the last two months.
I also agree on the occasional Pye "bottleneck" and the wonderful service of RFF.
As to "contracts with mining corps" - I found placing buy orders 1 jump from Jita at the price I would have paid in Jita for the same minerals worked just fine for filling a majority of the void.
13662 Abaddons in the last 2 months. I busted my ass to make 1360 and kept accurate records.
I had 11 corp contracts for minerals weekly, and I was 2 jumps from Jita which is about the nearest usable system with free slots.
A maxed skilled researcher/industrialist using 11 x 10 run BPC's at a time can make just over 10,000 ships a month.
That is 1.7T in minerals that needs to be hauled, and a huge number of Abaddon BPC's which I know were NOT on the market.
I very much doubt anyone could do that number of ships.
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.08 13:32:00 -
[3]
I know how I confused myself reading Lui Kai post.
My number was 13600, I misread my spreadsheet on the number of ships, but didn't misread the minerals or freighter contracts used!!
Sorry Lui, no wonder your numbers looked wierd to me after my effort!!
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.08 16:12:00 -
[4]
Originally by: SencneS
Yeah, umm sorry about that 
You want to know WHY it failed?
Buy orders.. Buy orders from people who could care less about Insurance and Blowing up ships. You say "Using only minerals purchased directly from Jita sell orders." <--- This is why you failed.
You really want to effect the mineral market, place "BUY" orders 0.02ISK below the lowest Sell order. Watch how quickly it get's filled, but it does have a side effect. There MAY be someone who pennies you. And someone who pennies them. To put the market in an upswing, you need to buy with buy orders, not consume from sell orders.
I would believe that most miners mine, refine, ship to local hub, sell to buy orders. Which marketing people turn around and place directly on the market for a higher price. This would be the reason why Minerals still remain cheap, the miners are selling to marketing people cheap. The marketing people simply don't care how it's used just that they get their minerals sold first.
I did use Buy orders where I could. I just stated for my basket index I calculated from Jita Sell orders.
I had buy orders for Isogen, mexallon, Nocxium, Zydrine and megacyte. The project used up so much Tritanium and Pyerite I couldn't manage any orders I just had to consume whatever was available on the market. I think 5 times I cleared the Pyerite market in Jita as I needed the minerals, and it was still profitable.
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.10 00:11:00 -
[5]
At least ME20.
If you want to make money I still have some Rokh's for sale at 113.5M ISK each.
You would make 2M ISK per ship via the insurance destruction route.
I currently have about 200 Rokh's available, that would be 400M profits if someone wants to buy them.
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.11 03:21:00 -
[6]
My time.
I work based at home so I am logged in a lot, and in the SCC channel.
1. Now Cosmoray sat at Jita putting in a few very large buy orders daily, which I didn't micro-manage
2. Arranged hauler contracts to move to production location
3. Had multiple mining contracts drop off at MY production location
4. Purchased large numbers of BPC's off contracts in Jita, and a BPC delivery service and used my Rokh BPO
5. Using 3 ALT's put a job in after every 30 hrs for each. 10 runs per ALT of max run BPC
6. Selling Rokh's through contacts and SCC channel and on MD
Total time I would say 20 hours of the month dedicated, and 10 hours *soft* time chatting in channels and talking to people.
Time invested = 30 hrs
Total Return = 97B profit
Hourly rate = 3B+ per hour.
Was my time worth it, yes obviously.
Just like Keyser Soze.
People were working for me without knowledge that they were working for me. I rarely work with the same people for very long, and they never know who they're working for
One cannot be betrayed if one has no people.
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.11 05:23:00 -
[7]
Edited by: cosmoray on 11/12/2009 05:25:19
Originally by: Pink Kiwi
Originally by: cosmoray
5. Using 3 ALT's put a job in after every 30 hrs for each. 10 runs per ALT of max run BPC
Something isn't quite making sense with that. If you were only using 3 alts with 10 build slots each, the most that could be produced within 30 days is 6,990 ships. Minimum number of build slots needed for 13,600 battleships in 30 days is 59. Could you clarify how it actually worked? Was it two groups of 3 Alts?
Multiple accounts ftw.
I have 6 industrial toons with at least 30M SP's. Plus a few others.
note: Even when not running this program I have mineral contracts that use up at least 20B in minerals a week.
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