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SuperTight5
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Posted - 2009.12.13 14:03:00 -
[1]
What is going on with hulk prices? I remember few weeks ago a hulk was under 100mil, but now they are close to 150mil
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Sama's Minion
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Posted - 2009.12.13 14:05:00 -
[2]
hahahaha :D i sucks eh? lmao
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SuperTight5
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Posted - 2009.12.13 14:12:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Sama's Minion hahahaha :D i sucks eh? lmao
u mad?
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Sama's Minion
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Posted - 2009.12.13 14:24:00 -
[4]
no im quite happy with the 50-60M ISK price increase :D
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Dzil
Caldari Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2009.12.13 17:08:00 -
[5]
Originally by: SuperTight5 What is going on with hulk prices? I remember few weeks ago a hulk was under 100mil, but now they are close to 150mil
Imagine if, back when invention had come in, if at the same time T2 BPs were removed.
The market still would have approached the effeciency it did today, however there would have been an initial rise/spike as business as usual was disrupted. The same has happened to T2 material supply. It'll be back online, and if the spike was only 50% I'd wager your best bet it to sell into it; as infrastructure adapts to the new dominion system I predict supply will greatly increase and these prices will fall below pre-dominion pricing.
Dzil's Corp Sales - 200m |
Brock Nelson
Caldari Flux Technologies Inc SRS.
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Posted - 2009.12.13 19:29:00 -
[6]
hulkgeddon is finally paying off
Tools for Research Business
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Hyveres
Caldari
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Posted - 2009.12.13 20:19:00 -
[7]
Its a tech 2 ship.
Market prices are just scaling up towards actual construction cost in dominion. "Subtlety is a thing for philosophy, not combat. If you're going to kill someone, you might as well kill them a whole lot." - Vulcan Raven, The Last Days Of Foxhound |
Antarre
Very Rich Bastards
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Posted - 2009.12.13 21:54:00 -
[8]
It's called market forces. Minerals and build comps are vastly up in price, making the cost of the hulk considerably more expensive to build, and stupidly expensive to invent and build.
Considering the above, 146 mil seems cheap to me. Marketeers also will push the prices up, because we can
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Barny Burns
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Posted - 2009.12.14 01:35:00 -
[9]
Well, this is a bugger. Going to have to go further into debit to get myself a hulk then :(
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Barny Burns
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Posted - 2009.12.14 01:51:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Antarre It's called market forces. Minerals and build comps are vastly up in price, making the cost of the hulk considerably more expensive to build, and stupidly expensive to invent and build.
Considering the above, 146 mil seems cheap to me. Marketeers also will push the prices up, because we can
Come to think of this, won't this spiral out of control? Fewer affordable Hulks leds to fewer miners leds to less ore leds to more expensive Hulks...ad nausem.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.14 02:26:00 -
[11]
Edited by: Akita T on 14/12/2009 02:28:28
Originally by: Barny Burns Come to think of this, won't this spiral out of control? Fewer affordable Hulks leds to fewer miners leds to less ore leds to more expensive Hulks...ad nausem.
First off, the main cost component of Hulks is not minerals out of ore, but T2 components made out of moon minerals (then the secondary cost is invention overhead, and only a very distant third the cost of the base Covetor which is made of regular minerals). So, no, there's no "spiral effect" going on anywhere.
Second, the regular minerals are already available in abundance, in such abundance actually that it's profitable to build ships, insure them, then blow them up. Also, a Covetor doesn't really mine THAT much less than a Hulk. The mineral market won't really be affected even if Hulks sell at 1 bil ISK a piece (not that they'll ever sell for that much). So, no, as a whole, most people will not really care either way.
Third and last, this is a TEMPORARY situation, as the "old expensive" components are still expensive, while the "new expensive" components are already almost as expensive as they'll be. As soon as the "old expensive" components finally become "new cheap", prices of Hulks will drop again. So, no, there is absolutely no problem whatsoever.
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Dr Caymus
Gallente Applied Technologies Inc Agents of Fortune
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Posted - 2009.12.14 03:24:00 -
[12]
Originally by: SuperTight5 What is going on with hulk prices? I remember few weeks ago a hulk was under 100mil, but now they are close to 150mil
A few days ago, the cost to build one was around 70 million. Today the cost is close to twice that. Like other ships, the T2 component content changed with Dominion. Hulks require a few more Photon Micros and CCAPs to build than prior to Dom (greatly exceeding the cost benefit of BOM reductions to other components). Prices might ease a bit once the market for advanced materials and their raw equivalents stabilize, but I wouldn't look for a sub-100 million sales price any time soon.
-=ATI=-
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Toshiro GreyHawk
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Posted - 2009.12.14 11:59:00 -
[13]
Eh ... we'll have to see how all this works out.
As Akita pointed out - a Covetor mines almost as much as a Hulk.
Most of the people out there using Hulks - don't actually need a Hulk. They bought it because it was the pinnacle of the mining ship progression - not because it was worth it to them to pay the difference between a Hulk and a Covetor.
The primary difference between a Hulk and a Covetor is - cargo space and tank. Most miners do not need the tank on a Hulk since they don't take their Hulks anywhere that tank is going to be tested anyway. Cargo space is the big determinant here - as it allows Hulks to "Mine & Return" acting as their own hauler.
By Jet Can mining Mission Spaces in quiet 1.0 and .9 systems a pilot with a Covetor and a rig fit industrial can mine more efficiently than a Hulk anyway - and at a fraction of the OLD price.
If you really need more cargo hold on a Covetor - then you can rig fit IT to mitigate the matter. It won't haul as much as a rig fit Hulk and will pop a lot easier - but it'll cost a hell of a lot less - and if you are really worried about getting popped - a Covetor is 100% Hull Insurable where a Hulk is not.
So ... it's not like there's some big crisis here. Most of the people wanting to buy a Hulk now can do well enough with a Covetor until prices drop - and - if prices don't drop, just keep using that Covetor.
Orbiting vs. Kiting Faction Schools |
gttwo
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Posted - 2009.12.14 14:37:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 14/12/2009 02:28:28
Originally by: Barny Burns Come to think of this, won't this spiral out of control? Fewer affordable Hulks leds to fewer miners leds to less ore leds to more expensive Hulks...ad nausem.
...Covetor doesn't really mine THAT much less than a Hulk...
a) for people who mine in hulk in non-0.5 and up space using a hulk is not about how much ore it can take up but survival. A covetor is paper thin (read: has 1 medium slot).
b) I see nothing wrong with current hulk prices atm nor with the prices of its component/materials
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Jones Bones
Final Agony
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Posted - 2009.12.14 15:43:00 -
[15]
I believe you Hulk producers owe us suicide gank squads a bit of your profit margin =================== Go Bucks! |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.14 16:43:00 -
[16]
Yup, Hulks sold up to almost 600 mil a piece and people weren't so whiny back then. Kids today, so spoiled...
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Toshiro GreyHawk
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Posted - 2009.12.15 05:38:00 -
[17]
Originally by: gttwo
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 14/12/2009 02:28:28
Originally by: Barny Burns Come to think of this, won't this spiral out of control? Fewer affordable Hulks leds to fewer miners leds to less ore leds to more expensive Hulks...ad nausem.
...Covetor doesn't really mine THAT much less than a Hulk...
a) for people who mine in hulk in non-0.5 and up space using a hulk is not about how much ore it can take up but survival. A covetor is paper thin (read: has 1 medium slot).
b) I see nothing wrong with current hulk prices atm nor with the prices of its component/materials
Actually ... I think what you meant to say was people who mine in .5 - .7 space.
Yeah. You have to watch it but ... it's not that big a deal. As long as you are paying attention and ready with your combat drones you can kill the rats before they do you to much damage. A little bit of not paying attention can get you really hurt though. I have had that happen to me. Got away but I was deep into structure. The moral of that story was - don't get so wrapped up in one of my alts that I don't realize that another is being attacked ... Lost my first ship that way ... ah ... my poor little Navitas ...
The thing is - people who play multiple accounts - just need to stand by for that to happen. It is part of the price.
*shrug*
Orbiting vs. Kiting Faction Schools |
Moon Silver
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Posted - 2009.12.15 23:21:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Toshiro GreyHawk Eh ... we'll have to see how all this works out.
As Akita pointed out - a Covetor mines almost as much as a Hulk.
Most of the people out there using Hulks - don't actually need a Hulk. They bought it because it was the pinnacle of the mining ship progression - not because it was worth it to them to pay the difference between a Hulk and a Covetor.
The primary difference between a Hulk and a Covetor is - cargo space and tank. Most miners do not need the tank on a Hulk since they don't take their Hulks anywhere that tank is going to be tested anyway. Cargo space is the big determinant here - as it allows Hulks to "Mine & Return" acting as their own hauler.
You are so wrong it hurts. With just t2 lasers and no fleet bonus the Hulk gets 15% more ore per minute. Even at max skills the Covertor can only fit 1 t2 MLU. Because of that a maxed out hulk, with maxed skills (no fleet, no implants) does just a touch over 25% more ore per minute. The extra hold also allows the miner more flexability as to when to jet a new can, or move ore over.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.16 03:37:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Moon Silver You are so wrong it hurts. With just t2 lasers and no fleet bonus the Hulk gets 15% more ore per minute. Even at max skills the Covertor can only fit 1 t2 MLU. Because of that a maxed out hulk, with maxed skills (no fleet, no implants) does just a touch over 25% more ore per minute. The extra hold also allows the miner more flexability as to when to jet a new can, or move ore over.
So, do you make 12 mil ISK/hour, or do you make 15 mil ISK/hour ? Hmm... Well, sounds like not such a damn big difference to me when you mine in highsec. It will take almost two days of excruciating non-stop mining just to break even at current prices - I suppose, for dedicated miners in relatively safe environments, that's not such a big deal, they can easily survive mining more than that... but if you're just a casual miner, stick with the Covetor.
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.16 03:49:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Moon Silver You are so wrong it hurts. With just t2 lasers and no fleet bonus the Hulk gets 15% more ore per minute. Even at max skills the Covertor can only fit 1 t2 MLU. Because of that a maxed out hulk, with maxed skills (no fleet, no implants) does just a touch over 25% more ore per minute. The extra hold also allows the miner more flexability as to when to jet a new can, or move ore over.
So, do you make 12 mil ISK/hour, or do you make 15 mil ISK/hour ? Hmm... Well, sounds like not such a damn big difference to me when you mine in highsec. It will take almost two days of excruciating non-stop mining just to break even at current prices - I suppose, for dedicated miners in relatively safe environments, that's not such a big deal, they can easily survive mining more than that... but if you're just a casual miner, stick with the Covetor.
More like 6 or 8M. Lvl 3 missions pay more than high sec mining per hr.
Seriously though rats in 0.5 - 0.8 can't break a covetor or hulks tank, so you don't even need to worry about rats. So if your attacked by a suicide ganker the Covetor AND the Hulk both die. If you are worried about price, a covetor is fully insurable so the probable loss will be about 1M plus the cost of the mods (3 x T2 stips)
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.16 06:52:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Akita T So, do you make 12 mil ISK/hour, or do you make 15 mil ISK/hour ? Hmm... Well, sounds like not such a damn big difference to me when you mine in highsec. It will take almost two days of excruciating non-stop mining just to break even at current prices - I suppose, for dedicated miners in relatively safe environments, that's not such a big deal, they can easily survive mining more than that... but if you're just a casual miner, stick with the Covetor.
I agree, but aren't you shooting yourself in the foot by suggesting that people don't have to buy tech2 ships? Don't you want technetium prices to keep climbing as people pay astronomical prices for tech2 finished goods? In fact, doesn't your model assume that demand for tech2 products is inelastic? Perhaps you have found the flaw in your own theory.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.16 07:05:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Claire Voyant I agree, but aren't you shooting yourself in the foot by suggesting that people don't have to buy tech2 ships? Don't you want technetium prices to keep climbing as people pay astronomical prices for tech2 finished goods? In fact, doesn't your model assume that demand for tech2 products is inelastic? Perhaps you have found the flaw in your own theory.
Actually, people not buying up expensive T2 ships helps technetium quite a bit in the long run...
The main prerequisite for technetium (plus neodymium and platinum to lesser degrees) to start to go up seriously in price is for dysprosium/promethium (and related stuff) to go down HARD first. Those have gone down a bit, but nowhere near enough for technetium to start its serious climb. Only after dyspro/prom have fallen to under 10k each or thereabouts (due to lack of use and stockpiles of them rising) can their corresponding materials and components also fall in price enough before their use/production stabilizes. Only when THAT happens will T2 ship prices reach levels low enough for their consumption to increase, which in turn means faster depletion of technetium (and related) stockpiles while dyspro/prom stockpiles keep increasing, leading to a price cascade.
The less ships people buy now, the faster their price will fall, and the only place where prices can come down from right now is reduction in price of former expensive components... and the sooner THOSE go down in price, the sooner the others can start to climb up in price even more... and when the situation is reversed and technetium is finally not just the extraction but also the stockpile bottleneck, THEN technetium will go to insane price levels finally.
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Malcanis
Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
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Posted - 2009.12.16 09:52:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Brock Nelson hulkgeddon is finally paying off
And should be resumed as soon as possible.
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5dollarcoctail
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Posted - 2009.12.16 09:55:00 -
[24]
current hulk build costs without invention are somewhere around 140 mln.
adding invention at 30 mln a run will result in 170 mln.
so price at 190 mln is not something unbelivable at all
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eocsnesemaj
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Posted - 2009.12.18 13:14:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Jones Bones I believe you Hulk producers owe us suicide gank squads a bit of your profit margin
muhaha I totally agree!
http://www.distant-drums.co.uk/killboard/?a=home
Thursday, December 17th
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Kyle Cataclysm
Blue.
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Posted - 2009.12.19 02:07:00 -
[26]
Originally by: eocsnesemaj muhaha I totally agree!
http://www.distant-drums.co.uk/killboard/?a=home
I love how Mr Yarrr gets owned in lowsec several times and then starts suicide ganking.
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Forranz
Malice. Tentative Nature
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Posted - 2009.12.19 05:10:00 -
[27]
I love how its all 11+ people
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Hans Gribbens
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Posted - 2009.12.19 08:25:00 -
[28]
hulkageddon 2 is coming to a cinema near you
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.12.19 15:59:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Dr Caymus I'm actually surprised that Hulk prices are as low as they are right now... in fact they held onto mid-120mm prices for a good week after Dominion...
I think that's a reflection of a few things a) the T2 supply chain is so long, people were selling who had built at much lower input prices b) there was a lot of stock people were holding of both advanced materials and built hulks, the price rose to about 150m then dropped to about 125m as people began dumping stock thinking a 50% price rise was as good as it was going to get. Once those stocks ran out, the realisation set in that the supply to the market wasn't 'real' and the prices began to soar again.
I think it's impossible for Ferrogel and Fermionic Condensates to drop enough to make up for the rise in Nanotransistors, there isn't enough of them used in ships anymore to make the same difference, even if they were free.
Also now with rising prices I think many people will be holding off building as they're worried about a bubble in material prices that may or may not happen, causing big losses when it corrects, this again keeps finished item prices up.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.19 16:33:00 -
[30]
Edited by: Akita T on 19/12/2009 16:34:42
One invented Hulk at ME:-4 contains (more or less in order of Soon™ value):
technetium632.3 (around 38 mil currently, might go up to 63 mil soon or even higher) neodymium502.8 (around 7 mil currently, might go up) platinum918,1 (3+ mil and probably also slightly going up) dysprosium77 (3 mil ? and going down) promethium87.5 (2 mil ? and going down) cadmium969.2 mercury530.8 chromium313.8 + some other small fry stuff (let's say another 10 mil or so on all of the stuff with no price mentioned here at all, and that's actually a very generous amount) a bit over 5 days' worth of reactor fuel (say, 25 mil, give or take... plus another, what, 50 mil profit for the guys running the reactions) plus whatever the actual blueprint's worth (I'd say another 5 mil or so tops, since, hey, ME:-4 is without a decryptor) a bit over a week's worth of manufacture time (the very least 10 mil even at minimum expectations, 20 mil more likely) plus, of course, the base Covetor and some morphite
Yeah, not looking all that rosy right now, not even with decryptors... even if component cost does go down significantly with some decryptors, the invention cost would go up alongside decryptor prices.
The funny part is that most of the profit actually goes to the guys running the reaction chains, NOT necessarily those that extract the moon materials. This could mean two things : either Hulks will get even more expensive, or reaction profitability will be going down.
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