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Qukiscisme
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Posted - 2009.12.23 17:59:00 -
[1]
I like the subtle way CCP engineers fine tune the production mechanics.
For example the T2 production: They don't say "we will increase/decrease the components needed by 10% to make some moons more profitable", no they just forget the "%".
One of the consequence is just that the T2 ship components' market goes crazy. I use to have some stocks (I know this is a bad economic option): 500 components of each type. The previously expensive components now worth 10 time less. The previously low-end components stocks were used by manufacturing 1 single freg. And now the price for these components have made a time five.
The margin on the T2 ships was already so low (even for ships with no BPOs) that I'm now producing T2 ships for a price which is 30% over the price I can sell them.
Oh, I just noticed, I'm ruined.
I'll just sell my remaining stocks and get into scamming. This, at least, is a protected profession.
Am I bitter? ... hmm ... could be.
Quk.
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2009.12.23 18:15:00 -
[2]
Originally by: Qukiscisme The margin on the T2 ships was already so low (even for ships with no BPOs) that I'm now producing T2 ships for a price which is 30% over the price I can sell them.
Builders that paid attention on Sisi months ago noticed that and stockpiled as many T2 ships as they could at the cheaper price of components. Now that build prices have doubled they can afford to sell their inventory at a loss over current inventors which makes them give up inventing. As they get out of the invention and production they people with the huge stockpiles raise prices and make a killing since all the competition has stoped.
On an interesting note, Of all the T2 gallente ships, all of them except the Kronos has went up in price since Dominion, with several of them having a nice profit margin. The Kronos has actaully gone down in price and is currently selling for well over 100 million less than the cost to build them. That doesn't even take into account datacores, decryptors, ect...
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Jita Chiquita
Caldari Science and Trade Institute
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Posted - 2009.12.23 18:16:00 -
[3]
its your own mistake.
you could have known all this since months
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LHA Tarawa
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Posted - 2009.12.23 19:42:00 -
[4]
It simply means prices have not yet reached a new equilibrium.
Here is an interesting thing to note....
CCP says they modified the required amounts to bring them in line with actual units available in game. You need 2x as much of something that there is 2x as much of.... Before they had it where you needed 2x as much of the stuff that there was 1/2 as much of. Yes?
So, the 2x as much need with 1/2 supply was crazy valuable and a single alliance got ubber rich by taking all those moons and cornering the market....
So, CCP looks to eliminate that choke point. The stuff that there is 2x as much of now needs 4x as much as before. Okay... the price of that goes up.
Given a free market, the price of the old stuff should come down. Oh, but wait. Already said that one ubber rich alliance has cornered the market in that stuff. Okay.. they are now making the same amount, but the market needs 4x as much of it. Okay....
What is to prevent them from just not selling all they make. They need to sell 1/4th as much to maintain the price??? okay, they sell 1/4th as much. Better then selling it all and letting the price fall 90%.... yes?
AND, becasue this one alliance has the market cornered and are still being the bottleneck... well.... that new stuff that was supposed to be the choke point. Well, does it really have to become a choke point?
NOT if the alliance with the market cornered on the old stuff doesn't let it become a bottleneck.
It seems to me that if CCP really wants to eliminate the single choke point, then they need to make it impossible to corner a market.
How to do that??? Beats me.
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Brock Nelson
Caldari Flux Technologies Inc SRS.
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Posted - 2009.12.23 19:49:00 -
[5]
Guess you'll pay attention to dev blog next time eh?
Closed until further notice
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Timujen
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Posted - 2009.12.24 20:56:00 -
[6]
I don't get it. I invented several T2 ship BPC's. The cost for building T2 cruisers given current prices of the mats needed is much higher than people are still selling ships for. Now either my spreadsheet has gone bananas or some players selling T2 ships are not paying attention. Can anyone concur with this?
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Horchan
Gallente
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Posted - 2009.12.24 22:19:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Timujen I don't get it. I invented several T2 ship BPC's. The cost for building T2 cruisers given current prices of the mats needed is much higher than people are still selling ships for. Now either my spreadsheet has gone bananas or some players selling T2 ships are not paying attention. Can anyone concur with this?
Reread LHA Tarawa's post. What you "don't get" is entirely outlined there. ---
DesuSigs |
Cygwin Gaad
Caldari The Element Syndicate Black Mesa Project
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Posted - 2009.12.25 00:16:00 -
[8]
Just as planned. tho im sad i didnt buy enough Carbides and nanotransistors when the price was low ive made my first billion because of this lunacy. -
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Timujen
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Posted - 2009.12.25 11:37:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Timujen on 25/12/2009 11:38:19 Edited by: Timujen on 25/12/2009 11:37:48
Quote: Reread LHA Tarawa's post. What you "don't get" is entirely outlined there.
I understand the price mechanics Horchan. What I dont understand is that if you build a T2 ship with components at Jita prices, or where ever you can find them cheaper, your cost price of production is much higher than the prices at which you can still buy those ships of the market. As I posted earlier, either my calculations are flawed, or a lot of people are not paying attention. I don't see how you can build a T2 cruiser at 80-100 M. To build a flycatcher will cost around 60M including invention costs. They still sell at 25-30M. Now did Eve go Bananas or did I take in too much Eggnog .
btw Merry X-mas to you all
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2009.12.25 12:29:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Timujen To build a flycatcher will cost around 60M including invention costs. They still sell at 25-30M.
That is because when they bought the materials to build one they only spent 20 million! As I already said, the people that knew this was coming stockpiled tons of materials when the prices were dirt cheap and are now driving others out of the market.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.25 17:04:00 -
[11]
Science & industry should be the place you come to get TECHNICAL questions answered. Those into invention/manufacture that don't also visit Market Discussions are doomed to... well... whatever happened to the OP. Some people visiting MD knew about this starting roughly 7 weeks ago. Now, I don't know about you, but that's more than enough time to do something about it.
Oh, and by the way, the solution is oh-so-simple (provided you have the necessary funds, that is) : if you find ships on the market below best build cost (that would actually be BPO build cost)... BUY THEM AND RELIST.
_
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Phoebus ApolloX
Reasonable People
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Posted - 2009.12.25 18:14:00 -
[12]
Edited by: Phoebus ApolloX on 25/12/2009 18:15:32 Market is clearly unstable. Step out of it for a while. If you don't liquidate all your assets while prices are screwed up, then you're not "ruined", as you don't take a real loss for it until you decide to get it involved in the market again and lose out on that value. Be patient and it will return to viability, although yes some of the past stock will be depreciated in value permanently due to the price changes, but wait till the rest of the market balances out and you'll find out it isn't that bad.
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Timujen
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Posted - 2009.12.26 17:43:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Timujen on 26/12/2009 17:43:09
Originally by: Breaker77
That is because when they bought the materials to build one they only spent 20 million! As I already said, the people that knew this was coming stockpiled tons of materials when the prices were dirt cheap and are now driving others out of the market.
That's really bad economics. You always sell for prices that allow you to continue, that means current prices. Even if you have stockpiled, you will never get people out of the market, they will just wait and get back in later. We dont have to layoff our working force as real companies have to In the end you will have thrown away money.
But I guess we will have to go for other T2 mods that are still profitable. It will take some time for the markets to settle.
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Orthaen
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Posted - 2009.12.27 04:14:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Timujen Edited by: Timujen on 26/12/2009 17:43:09 That's really bad economics. You always sell for prices that allow you to continue, that means current prices. Even if you have stockpiled, you will never get people out of the market, they will just wait and get back in later. We dont have to layoff our working force as real companies have to In the end you will have thrown away money.
But I guess we will have to go for other T2 mods that are still profitable. It will take some time for the markets to settle.
Didja read the OP? Forcing people out of the market is exactly what is happening, because people get disheartened when their spreadsheets tell them negative numbers. Meanwhile, if one person decided to raise prices to the current cost, everyone else with stockpiles would just undercut him, and he would stop selling things. Sure, things will eventually stabilize, but since he's already making profit hand over foot, why would he bother waiting to eek out just a little bit more? When things do stabilize, Mr. Intelligent Industrialist will just continue to make money, perhaps on different items or ships in the new market.
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2009.12.27 05:08:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Timujen Edited by: Timujen on 26/12/2009 17:43:09
Originally by: Breaker77
now driving others out of the market.
That's really bad economics.
If you are not in the market then I can do whatever I want with it.
Driving others out of the market is the best thing anyone can do.
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Kalidia
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Posted - 2009.12.27 07:06:00 -
[16]
Edited by: Kalidia on 27/12/2009 07:07:19 First off, this happends every time there is a devblog about something getting changed to something r&d related, ships/modules balancing or resource seeding.
First off, devblogs are your friend, keep on top of them and you wont be outplayed unless u dont understand the result of them. In a situation like today u have 2 options, either get on the crazy marketspeculationtrain or wait it out.
Doing heavy production at this point, as history has shown with every major update, might cost u an arm and a leg and force u to sell at heavy loss. Reason is right now u are not playing your product vs other producers, u are competing against mostly marketspeculators trying to make a quick buck. What u can do atm is stockpile what isnt much affected by this patch, do invention etc.
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Sha'Aryn
Minmatar Northern Star Inter-Galactic Industries PROject Alliance
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Posted - 2009.12.27 11:06:00 -
[17]
Here's how the Dev's can re-balance the market: add competition by allowing T2 blueprints to be material-researched!
Decrease the demand of materials and the prices will drop. If they hoard, then the hoarders will get a glut until they lower the prices.
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Mikelangelo
Gallente
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Posted - 2009.12.27 16:51:00 -
[18]
It usually takes a couple of months for the market to work itself out, in my experience, when major "CCP tune-ups" or expansions change the playing field.
Assuming that some people here know what they are talking about, and they do, you should still be able to ride this out by planning properly, and/or taking a break and going to shoot something.
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Lord Helghast
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Posted - 2009.12.27 18:03:00 -
[19]
i honestly dont get why they dont allow the BPC's from t2 to be researched up, i mean if we want to take the time to take it from negative to positive ME and PE then why not let us! Add some variety to the t2 manufacturing.
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Marcus Gideon
Gallente Federal Defense Operations
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Posted - 2009.12.28 03:53:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Lord Helghast i honestly dont get why they dont allow the BPC's from t2 to be researched up, i mean if we want to take the time to take it from negative to positive ME and PE then why not let us! Add some variety to the t2 manufacturing.
http://wiki.eveonline.com/wiki/Invention#Decryptors_and_Tech_I_Items |
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Roemy Schneider
Vanishing Point.
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Posted - 2009.12.28 14:46:00 -
[21]
reprocess a lump of unrefined xxx and you'll see how much brain was put into the whole shebang.
but yes, we knew this was coming 2 months ago. we pointed out the flaws, in public; when that didnt receive any attention, everyone had a chance to het hold of the iskies.
apart from that... a rising market should be brilliant for any producer, no? sell a finished ship with the material costs of last week? - putting the gist back into logistics |
Adeline Grey
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Posted - 2009.12.28 20:21:00 -
[22]
Read this thread, it will provide you with a lot of insite into the current materials market. 101 pages long atm.
http://www.scrapheap-challenge.com/viewtopic.php?t=30887
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.12.30 08:14:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Lord Helghast i honestly dont get why they dont allow the BPC's from t2 to be researched up, i mean if we want to take the time to take it from negative to positive ME and PE then why not let us! Add some variety to the t2 manufacturing.
Actually the reason they don't let you is precisely so that there IS some variety in T2 invention. Decryptor choice is an important part of remaining profitable, it gives you an advantage over people who are doing it casually and don't check to see if a different decryptor would make the process more profitable.
Decrpytors influence runs, ME and PE. Allowing you to research as well would remove two of the three influences decryptors use to differentiate themselves, making invention that much simpler, and that much LESS profitable as a result. (Because now everyone would have the same advantage, not just those that were smart in their decryptor selection).
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Vyktor Abyss
The Abyss Corporation
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Posted - 2009.12.30 14:12:00 -
[24]
The solution is simple.
Go fly Tech 3 ships that are now in oversupply!
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