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Morgan Oakenwolf
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Posted - 2010.01.11 18:25:00 -
[1]
OK,
One of the reasons given for Hulkageddon was the rise of ore/mineral prices.
Now, I've been tracking the prices, hoping to sell my stock of saved up ore to make a huge profit.
I have seen no major change in the price of ore. Am I the only one? Or was all the talk about the prices rising only a failed attempt at justification for the event? (the only justification I feel these folks really needed anyway was "because we want to" but that's just me.)
I've been using http://www.bsac.comlu.com/exchange/preview/index.php?id=OREPRICE to track the prices so it might not be the best tool.
Anyone have any other data that reflects this differently?
Thanks,
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Vahdrok Nyrus
OX Syndicate Shipyards
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Posted - 2010.01.11 18:56:00 -
[2]
Originally by: Morgan Oakenwolf Or was all the talk about the prices rising only a failed attempt at justification for the event?
Winner, winner...
Hulkageddon would need to happen for a solid year to have any influence on the ore market. A simultanious campaign against mission runners could yeild better results -----------------------------
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cal nereus
Cal Temp Agency
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Posted - 2010.01.11 19:09:00 -
[3]
Edited by: cal nereus on 11/01/2010 19:12:07
Actually, even after a year of constant hulk-ganking I doubt the prices would change much. As the poster above me said, you'd need to hit mission-runners at the same time, since most minerals in the market are derived from reprocessed loot. --- Earning Isk Basic Skills
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Kithran
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Posted - 2010.01.11 19:15:00 -
[4]
Originally by: cal nereus Edited by: cal nereus on 11/01/2010 19:12:07
Actually, even after a year of constant hulk-ganking I doubt the prices would change much. As the poster above me said, you'd need to hit mission-runners at the same time, since most minerals in the market are derived from reprocessed loot.
Rubbish - per published figures 40% comes from reprocessed loot, and that figure includes minerals that have been used to build modules/ammo that are built and then transported somewhere else simply to be reprocessed (do this for the right modules and transport capacity needed goes right down).
Kithran
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cal nereus
Cal Temp Agency
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Posted - 2010.01.11 19:24:00 -
[5]
I stand corrected. But 40% is still a high number. Is the remaining 60% all high-sec mining, or are we factoring in low-sec and null-sec mining too? I would imagine high-end minerals would only come from loot or null-sec. --- Earning Isk Basic Skills
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Abrazzar
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Posted - 2010.01.11 19:59:00 -
[6]
Originally by: cal nereus I stand corrected. But 40% is still a high number. Is the remaining 60% all high-sec mining, or are we factoring in low-sec and null-sec mining too? I would imagine high-end minerals would only come from loot or null-sec.
You need to figure drone poo in, too, which also comes from farming missions. So the end number from missioning is more than 40%. --------
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ProfessorLonghair
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Posted - 2010.01.11 20:39:00 -
[7]
I fail to see how mission runners can account for such a high number of the ore produced. Yes, it is likely that mission runners provide ore, but it seems they would provide most of the rare ore. Miners provide the brute force of the simple, unrefined ore, in my opinion. I'd like to see any proof as to how solid number could be reached. I think that the missioners are a bit too proud; someone told me that mission runners account for 95%. What ****. Prove it missioners, prove it miners.
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Billia
EdgeGamers
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Posted - 2010.01.11 21:11:00 -
[8]
To be honest the only difference hulkageddon for a whole year may effect, is the moon mineral market. But there is so much ore coming in and hulkageddon just wont be able to keep up with all the miners out there.
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Gavin DeVries
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Posted - 2010.01.11 22:01:00 -
[9]
Originally by: ProfessorLonghair I fail to see how mission runners can account for such a high number of the ore produced. Yes, it is likely that mission runners provide ore, but it seems they would provide most of the rare ore. Miners provide the brute force of the simple, unrefined ore, in my opinion. I'd like to see any proof as to how solid number could be reached. I think that the missioners are a bit too proud; someone told me that mission runners account for 95%. What ****. Prove it missioners, prove it miners.
Back when I was running missions, I'd loot and salvage every single wreck. Of the loot, a few items were worth selling; the rest got thrown into a station container. When the contents of the station container got close to the 25,000 m3 level, I'd haul it off to the local trade hub, where I had greater than 6.67 standing with the owning corporation, proceed to reprocess it and sell the minerals. I found it was more efficient to haul the loot and refine at the selling point than to refine on site and haul the minerals. Usually I'd get about 5x the cubic meters of minerals than the loot took up.
As to what minerals I'd get, I'd get them all. Megacyte and Zydrine were far less common than Tritanium and such, but they'd be present in some quantities. The only thing that was quite rare was Morphite, because the only loot that ever refined into Morphite was the Opulent Compound that only came from drone battleship wrecks. Still, I've got about 600 morphite stashed in a station that I got from looting Rogue Drone Harrassment, Attack of the Drones, and Infiltrated Outposts mission wrecks a number of times. ______________________________________________________ Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? |
Gordo Fartis
Caldari 13th Squadron E C L I P S E
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Posted - 2010.01.11 23:08:00 -
[10]
Talking about what proportion of minerals come from lot or from mining is a useless excercise. The reason I say this is that minerals from loot, lets asume is 60-70%, are far to dispersed with some quanitites in the mission hubs. The main minerals that might be afected (depending on stocks) are all the low en minerals. Zydrine and Megacyte are worth transporting from low and 0.0. Nobody in his/her right mind will transport trit, Pye, Mexa, Iso or Nocx from 0.0 or low sec. This leaves most of the supply of low end minerals comming from high sec where Hulkageddon is having an impact. So far roughly a 1000 hulks have been destroyed and asuming that a hulk canroughly produce 2 million units of trit per hour this means that roughly 2 billion units of tritanium equivalent have been removed from production (by equivalent mean their equivalent in Pye, Mex, Iso or Nox)..
Asuming the above it will take a little while for this to be felt in the main markets as there are high stock in the market atm. It is just a waiting game as more and more trit etc is consumed every day..
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Helicity Boson
Amarr The Python Cartel. The Jerk Cartel
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Posted - 2010.01.11 23:30:00 -
[11]
Since you know, I created hulkageddon II, I can safely say that mineral prices is not one of the reasons I started it.
Where do these idiots get their halfwitted fake information?
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Major RoadAhead
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Posted - 2010.01.11 23:44:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Helicity Boson Since you know, I created hulkageddon II?
You've patted yourself on the back in so many threads in so many different forums that it must be starting to hurt by now?
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Gordo Fartis
Caldari 13th Squadron E C L I P S E
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Posted - 2010.01.11 23:45:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Helicity Boson Since you know, I created hulkageddon II, I can safely say that mineral prices is not one of the reasons I started it.
Where do these idiots get their halfwitted fake information?
Hmm as far as I know no one said that mineral prices was the reason for Hulkaggedon.. It is just an interesting discusion.. As far as I know you get your excitment from griefing afk and non afk lambs (aka miners)
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Helicity Boson
Amarr The Python Cartel. The Jerk Cartel
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Posted - 2010.01.12 00:14:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Gordo Fartis
Originally by: Helicity Boson Since you know, I created hulkageddon II, I can safely say that mineral prices is not one of the reasons I started it.
Where do these idiots get their halfwitted fake information?
Hmm as far as I know no one said that mineral prices was the reason for Hulkaggedon.. It is just an interesting discusion.. As far as I know you get your excitment from griefing afk and non afk lambs (aka miners)
Duuurr first post in this thread?
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Gordo Fartis
Caldari 13th Squadron E C L I P S E
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Posted - 2010.01.12 01:05:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Helicity Boson
Originally by: Gordo Fartis
Originally by: Helicity Boson Since you know, I created hulkageddon II, I can safely say that mineral prices is not one of the reasons I started it.
Where do these idiots get their halfwitted fake information?
Hmm as far as I know no one said that mineral prices was the reason for Hulkaggedon.. It is just an interesting discusion.. As far as I know you get your excitment from griefing afk and non afk lambs (aka miners)
Duuurr first post in this thread?
One of the reasons given....... <-- he is not saying this is the case
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.01.12 01:46:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Gordo Fartis So far roughly a 1000 hulks have been destroyed and asuming that a hulk canroughly produce 2 million units of trit per hour this means that roughly 2 billion units of tritanium equivalent have been removed from production (by equivalent mean their equivalent in Pye, Mex, Iso or Nox)..
Do you mean that 2 billion units per hour have been removed? This is not really credible as people will just jump into a new ship and head back out (even if its a covetor rather than a hulk). Or do you mean a one-off loss of 2 bil units, assuming an hour's lost mining per kill? If so, this is a tiny drop in the bucket and will have no effect whatsoever on prices (I'm a fairly small scale producer and I use nearly 1 billion units a day).
The likely effect of this event on mineral prices will be tiny. A small percentage of the eve mining fleet has been destroyed but not in a way that prevents the pilots going back out and carrying on. A significant percentage switching to less efficient ships for a week to avoid the ganking will probably have more effect than the kills themselves, but still, this will have no significant effect unless it is sustained for months at a time.
A much bigger loss of minerals from the market comes from insurance fraud. Last month two producers (Cosmoray and Lui Kai) between them built and destroyed over 20000 battleships, taking a hell of a lot of mins out of the game (all tier 3 - you do the calculations). This was done by just two players. They are now being emulated by many, many people. And even this has only had a small effect on mineral prices (pyerite has gone up a bit but that's about it). Hulkageddon will do next to nothing.
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Gordo Fartis
Caldari 13th Squadron E C L I P S E
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Posted - 2010.01.12 02:57:00 -
[17]
Edited by: Gordo Fartis on 12/01/2010 02:57:37
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Gordo Fartis So far roughly a 1000 hulks have been destroyed and asuming that a hulk canroughly produce 2 million units of trit per hour this means that roughly 2 billion units of tritanium equivalent have been removed from production (by equivalent mean their equivalent in Pye, Mex, Iso or Nox)..
Do you mean that 2 billion units per hour have been removed? This is not really credible as people will just jump into a new ship and head back out (even if its a covetor rather than a hulk). Or do you mean a one-off loss of 2 bil units, assuming an hour's lost mining per kill? If so, this is a tiny drop in the bucket and will have no effect whatsoever on prices (I'm a fairly small scale producer and I use nearly 1 billion units a day).
The likely effect of this event on mineral prices will be tiny. A small percentage of the eve mining fleet has been destroyed but not in a way that prevents the pilots going back out and carrying on. A significant percentage switching to less efficient ships for a week to avoid the ganking will probably have more effect than the kills themselves, but still, this will have no significant effect unless it is sustained for months at a time.
A much bigger loss of minerals from the market comes from insurance fraud. Last month two producers (Cosmoray and Lui Kai) between them built and destroyed over 20000 battleships, taking a hell of a lot of mins out of the game (all tier 3 - you do the calculations). This was done by just two players. They are now being emulated by many, many people. And even this has only had a small effect on mineral prices (pyerite has gone up a bit but that's about it). Hulkageddon will do next to nothing.
Using only trit to make it easy I was using the very conservative estimate of 2 million units of trit per hulk per hour---> 2 billion per hour
Although this is a small mineral sink per day (10-40 billion per day)it does not mean that all other mineral sinks have disapeared.. it will be felt eventualy as more hulks are killed and more mineral goes missing.... lets say for argument sake that roughly 25 billion per day have been removed ==> in the 7 days of the tournament roughly 175 billion untis disapear... Producer carry on producing and miners need to replace the hulks.. so I suspect that there will be a dip at some point... I am not suggesting that people should speculate... My coment was due to the fact that, as a producer, I found this market discusions interesting.. the tournament will not affect me in any way as I have enough minerals to last me for 2 months at my current consumption of 2.3 billion per day.. I really dont care which way minerals go as I will buy them as I need them and pass the costs to the customers if the item is worth producing, it is just an interesting discusion to understand the market better
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Chainsaw Plankton
IDLE GUNS IDLE EMPIRE
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Posted - 2010.01.12 03:06:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Helicity Boson Since you know, I created hulkageddon II, I can safely say that mineral prices is not one of the reasons I started it.
Where do these idiots get their halfwitted fake information?
but conspiracies are so much more fun
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Mara Rinn
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Posted - 2010.01.12 04:21:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Gordo Fartis I was using the very conservative estimate of 2 million units of trit per hulk per hour---> 2 billion per hour
Although this is a small mineral sink per day (10-40 billion per day)it does not mean that all other mineral sinks have disapeared.. it will be felt eventualy as more hulks are killed and more mineral goes missing.... lets say for argument sake that roughly 25 billion per day have been removed
You've missed the point.
You blow up a hulk, the guys will just buy another one and keep mining somewhere else. Your impact on the mineral market is minimal, since there are far, far more miners and mission-runners than there are Hulkageddon competitors. You will have a statistically significant impact on the Exhumer market though.
[Aussie players: join channels ANZAC or AUSSIES] |
Helicity Boson
Amarr The Python Cartel. The Jerk Cartel
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Posted - 2010.01.12 07:41:00 -
[20]
Ok, ok I'll drop the megalomaniac act for a moment to discuss this seriously.
I think there will be NO noticable impact, once again because so many minerals originate from mission runners and drone regions loot (more than half).
Personally, I think that is really, REALLY WRONG.
I'm utterly convinced something needs to be done to make mining the primary source of minerals BY FAR.
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Winterjack
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Posted - 2010.01.12 10:19:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Helicity Boson I think there will be NO noticable impact, once again because so many minerals originate from mission runners and drone regions loot (more than half).
I'd say if the offer was cut in half, then the prices would go up. Seriously up, especially since demand did not go down, on the contrary the amount of suicided ships and the 1000 exhumers (as of yesterday) killed, I guess they'd increase demand.
I'd just wait for HAG to finish. If prices do not go up, then I'd think we have a surplus of minerals on the market - if we didn't, the demand would drive the prices up. Of course, you have to account for those miners that don't have a clue and sell very cheap. There was some smartass the other day who was selling 300k of mexallon at 23 ISK, when avg price was still 25.70. Having the resources at hand, I should've bought it all and resold it at a right price ;)
Quote: Personally, I think that is really, REALLY WRONG.
I'm utterly convinced something needs to be done to make mining the primary source of minerals BY FAR.
Agreed, again.
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Abrazzar
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Posted - 2010.01.12 11:35:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Helicity Boson I'm utterly convinced something needs to be done to make mining the primary source of minerals BY FAR.
Maybe organize a Free Motsu party next time, where you suicide any and all mission runners that you can scan down. --------
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Gordo Fartis
Caldari 13th Squadron E C L I P S E
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Posted - 2010.01.12 13:20:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Helicity Boson Ok, ok I'll drop the megalomaniac act for a moment to discuss this seriously.
I think there will be NO noticable impact, once again because so many minerals originate from mission runners and drone regions loot (more than half).
Personally, I think that is really, REALLY WRONG.
I'm utterly convinced something needs to be done to make mining the primary source of minerals BY FAR.
I am not interested in being told that I dont get it etc etc etc which is not argument or discusion, I am interested in discusing the topic
Hulkageddon has the effect of removing a a fraction of the Miners from game with the main impact in High sec (if you get ganked in low or 0.0 you deserve it for being stupid)
This is interesting becuase it gives an idea of how much pure miners contribute (industrialist usually use up all the minerals minedby themselves). The market for trit is currently stable taking into account the existing mineral sinks (i.e. wars, insurance fraud, T1 production, speculation etc)
Trit need to go up to 3.5 to remove one of the sinks --> insurance fraud
removing 1000 hulks from high sec (there are only 200 replacements in jita atm)has the effect of removing 16 billion units of trit a day (of course this asuming that miners only mine trit and do so for 8 hours with max skills)in the worst case and I suspect 8 billion (same asumptions)on average per day. A large proportion of this is used up before it gets to market (lets say 75%) that means that between 2-4 billion are disapearing. Also main asumption is that miners are not replacing hulks, which does not seem to be happening as they are not being bought (I have 8 for sale in Jita).
Taking all the above maybe 10% of the market is disapearing and the moment the stock pile in Jita is reducing slowly.. The effect might be small but it is there and it will make itself felt eventually.
As for the argument that mission runners and the drone regions produce most minerals this might be true but it is largely irrelevant. Why will you move trit using a jump freighter (max 30 million per cargo) or a freighter if you are nuts, when you can move zydrine, megacte and morphite + moon reactions and minerals. Most low end minerals stay where they are mined in 0.0 and low sec (at least this is what I do). The only exception to this is high sec where some people (I certainly dont) go arroung collecting little bits (by little I mean 10-30 million units) from the mission hubs.. Again the problem with minerals from missions is that they are very dispersed and are not concentrated like in those systems where there are several hulks mining and striping belts.
My opinion is that mining is ok as it is (you will not get rich very quickly) but it is a way to start on the industrial path.. Most industrial people mine minerals, buy minerals and produce from those minerals. If the minerals from mission runners are removed the inmediate result will be a short term increase in mineral prices until enough miners appear resulting, eventualy, in the same price for minerals in the medium term
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.01.12 16:23:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Gordo Fartis
Hulkageddon has the effect of removing a a fraction of the Miners from game
No it doesn't. It has the effect of sending them back to station to pick up a new ship after being ganked or of encouraging them to mine in covetors rather than hulks (probably a bigger effect than the actual hulk kills).
Quote:
removing 1000 hulks from high sec (there are only 200 replacements in jita atm)has the effect of removing 16 billion units of trit a day (of course this asuming that miners only mine trit and do so for 8 hours with max skills)in the worst case and I suspect 8 billion (same asumptions)on average per day. A large proportion of this is used up before it gets to market (lets say 75%) that means that between 2-4 billion are disapearing.
No. Again, you are assuming that a kill leads to that pilot not mining for the rest of the event and that the kills are cumulative in this regard.
Quote:
Also main asumption is that miners are not replacing hulks, which does not seem to be happening as they are not being bought (I have 8 for sale in Jita).
No, your main assumption is that not only are they not replacing hulks but that they are not mining in anything else either.
Quote:
Taking all the above maybe 10% of the market is disapearing
Except your assumptions and figures are way off, leading to this conclusion being way off.
Btw - did you say in a previous post that you keep a stockpile of two months worth of minerals? Why?
Apologies - I'm having a bad day. Please read some qualifications and polite "you might want to consider"s into the above as, on reading it back I see that it might come across as a bit rude.
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Gordo Fartis
Caldari 13th Squadron E C L I P S E
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Posted - 2010.01.12 16:40:00 -
[25]
Edited by: Gordo Fartis on 12/01/2010 16:42:01
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Gordo Fartis
Hulkageddon has the effect of removing a a fraction of the Miners from game
No it doesn't. It has the effect of sending them back to station to pick up a new ship after being ganked or of encouraging them to mine in covetors rather than hulks (probably a bigger effect than the actual hulk kills).
Quote:
Covetors are very inefficient compared to Hulks which will still result in a fraction of minerals not being available
removing 1000 hulks from high sec (there are only 200 replacements in jita atm)has the effect of removing 16 billion units of trit a day (of course this asuming that miners only mine trit and do so for 8 hours with max skills)in the worst case and I suspect 8 billion (same asumptions)on average per day. A large proportion of this is used up before it gets to market (lets say 75%) that means that between 2-4 billion are disapearing.
No. Again, you are assuming that a kill leads to that pilot not mining for the rest of the event and that the kills are cumulative in this regard.
Some will replace (if they can) some will not. Again a fraction of minerals is being removed
Quote:
Also main asumption is that miners are not replacing hulks, which does not seem to be happening as they are not being bought (I have 8 for sale in Jita).
No, your main assumption is that not only are they not replacing hulks but that they are not mining in anything else either.
Hulks are not moving as much as they should be if everybody was replacing lost hulks
Quote:
Taking all the above maybe 10% of the market is disapearing
Except your assumptions and figures are way off, leading to this conclusion being way off.
Asumptions are asumptions. I personally dont think they are way off because I have been very conservative when making them
Btw - did you say in a previous post that you keep a stockpile of two months worth of minerals? Why?
I do because it allows me to maintain an average cost for minerals by smoothing the ups and downs in the market.. If I have to wait 10 days to fing godd priced minerals I can
Apologies - I'm having a bad day. Please read some qualifications and polite "you might want to consider"s into the above as, on reading it back I see that it might come across as a bit rude.
No probs m8, you are entitled to your opinion and that is why this discussion is interesting
I still believe that the removal of a fraction 5-10% of minerals from the market will have a slow effect on the market. Hulkageddon is nice because it targets a specific part of the community. Prices for the very low ends trit, Pye and Mex are starting to go up.
RAWR I put the replies in italics but is a bit messed up apologies for that
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Lord FunkyMunky
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Posted - 2010.01.12 18:25:00 -
[26]
BIGGER IMPACT TO MINERAL MARKET IS THE DEAD OF 4-7 TITANS :)
Miner deaths dont impact much because only a slight delay till new hulk is baught, and the hulk itself isnt a big sink for minerals....
now the large amt of minerals that go into titans and outposts is a different story...
can outposts be destroyed or just sieged, they shud make them destroyable if not, just think about the mineral market then hehe :)
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Dudley North
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Posted - 2010.01.13 08:07:00 -
[27]
Whilst people have carped on about mineral prices (and I don't think they'll be noticably affected either), there is one thing I've not seen mentioned.
Many AFK mining operations are used to finance GTC's and PLEX for main accounts.
I'll be intersted to see if this has an effect on in-game PLEX prices. Logically (hah! like taht applies) this will drive them down (so less pew-pew for your $). |
Liang Nuren
The Lollypop Factory
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Posted - 2010.01.13 08:39:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Lord FunkyMunky BIGGER IMPACT TO MINERAL MARKET IS THE DEAD OF 4-7 TITANS :)
Miner deaths dont impact much because only a slight delay till new hulk is baught, and the hulk itself isnt a big sink for minerals....
now the large amt of minerals that go into titans and outposts is a different story...
can outposts be destroyed or just sieged, they shud make them destroyable if not, just think about the mineral market then hehe :)
IIRC, the rise of high sec mineral prices when D2 and BOB were both building "massive" Titan/Cap fleets was attributed to so much trit being required for super cap production. IIRC Trit was at 4.5-5 ISK/unit (compared to 2.6 now). Since then, I think the Drone regions have opened up - but IIRC they mostly had an effect on the high end/lowsec mineral markets.
And it's not as though CCP hasn't nerfed loot drops (which implies mineral generation from missions). And for the record, I get about 8M/hr of my 50-60M/hr (13-16%) from loot reprocessing/production and this can be improved to ~14M/hr of 60-70M/hr (20-23%).
Meh. I think people are drastically overestimating the amount of loot that comes from missions - or they are using old pre-nerf numbers.
-Liang -- Liang Nuren - Eve Forum ***** Extraordinaire www.kwikdeath.org |
Armoured C
Gallente Onei Robotics
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Posted - 2010.01.13 08:44:00 -
[29]
you will find the only thing that will drasticly increase mineral worth is when loot from missions is taken away since i believe 40% (read this somewhere in market forum) of the mineral market is taken from t1 loot in missions
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My Postman
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Posted - 2010.01.13 11:19:00 -
[30]
I might be wrong but destroying so many ships (hulks AND those who are concordokken) must have a slight impact on mineral prices.
And as far as i saw in the region i live (highsec) the amount of buy orders for low ends are rising significally. Pye already has gone from 5.6 (maybe two weeks ago) to 6.6 nowadays.
Any miner with a clear mind already has stockpiled a serious amount of mins before hulkageddon started, maybe because of fear that his mining activities are inter(dis)rupted for one week, or maybe because he¦s awaiting a rise in prices, to make profit. So it might be a short term rise depending on the amount of stockpiled mins.
Whatelse may help is that NC and TRI are lining up at the moment for serious fleet action, a morsus mihi (NC) titan already fallen last week.
But as long as Akita T has not shown up yet to enlight us this all may be speculation.
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