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Malcanis
Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
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Posted - 2010.03.14 13:01:00 -
[91]
Edited by: Malcanis on 14/03/2010 13:01:16 edit double post
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.03.14 13:21:00 -
[92]
Originally by: cosmoray This would mean:
1. All ships will have about 1/3 less minerals to build
As of yesterday the build requirements were still the same but who knows what CCP will do before it's released.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.14 13:26:00 -
[93]
Originally by: Cyclops43
Originally by: Akita T Which reacted violently soon after each patch ?
...and settled down to a new equilibrium soon thereafter.... With no real effect on the game...
You haven't even looked at mineral price histories have you?
Anyway, simply put, the reason why high-ends will be more heavily effected than low-ends is that they have further to fall. The reason that high-ends used to be worth more is because they were rare... they no longer are.
If (when?) the mineral basket as a whole becomes next to worthless there will be no reason for high-ends to be worth particularly more than low-ends, but low-ends take more effort to get... it simply takes longer to mine for the low-ends that you need for any given ship: there is more demand for low-ends than high-ends. So, low-end value becomes relatively more, even though both become less in the absolute sense.
I'm not sure if Akita is right that low-ends will 'hardly be affected' - I think they'll drop considerably too, especially Pyer which has been especially propped up by the basket price-floor - but I find it quite reasonable to assume that high-ends will drop further than low-ends.
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.14 13:30:00 -
[94]
Originally by: Cyclops43 What you haven't explained, is why high-sends should suffer more. As there are no limits on specific minerals today (just on the basket), the situation will be the same after an insurance change.
Simply put, because 400000 megacyte take up the same space as 400000 tritanium in raw form. You will never have people exporting tritanium from 0.0 into highsec, but you will have a lot of people importing highends INTO highsec. The new sov mechanic and upgrade system makes it mandatory to mine to maintain those levels, so there's increased incentive to mine them even if they're not "that" profitable anymore, ESPECIALLY in areas where they were previously unavailable, and they only showed up thanks to the system upgrades.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.14 13:36:00 -
[95]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Cyclops43 What you haven't explained, is why high-sends should suffer more. As there are no limits on specific minerals today (just on the basket), the situation will be the same after an insurance change.
Simply put, because 400000 megacyte take up the same space as 400000 tritanium in raw form. You will never have people exporting tritanium from 0.0 into highsec, but you will have a lot of people importing highends INTO highsec.
I don't see logistics as being that much of an issue really, surely there is enough low-end availability in any given locale as to make any area self-sufficient anyway?
As for moving things around inside empire Cosmo experienced that moving hundreds of billions of units of minerals around was no real problem, even if you don't want to do it yourself there's RF freight and similar services that can get any amount of transportation done in a reasonable time-frame.
I agree that high-ends will go down more, but simply because they've already started off going down and they are no longer particularly harder to get than low-ends... I just don't think logistics really matters that much - I'd say it's just about absolute demand being higher for them making low-ends more important.
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.14 13:44:00 -
[96]
Originally by: Turiel Demon I don't see logistics as being that much of an issue really, surely there is enough low-end availability in any given locale as to make any area self-sufficient anyway?
How much Veldspar do you think people in 0.0 will mine ? They'll either buy compressed minerals from empire space (not many will choose to do that), mine just enough Veldspar/Scordite/Pyroxeres as they need for what they want to build (not many do that either) or just use whatever lowends the hauler spawns drop (that's actually one of the largest sources of lowends in 0.0, and even like that, people find it annoying to collect them always), and most of their time, miners will be laz0ring along over on the ABCs to keep the upgrade level high. And where does all that excess Zydrine and Megacyte end up ? Moved to Jita and other highsec locations, that's where.
That's where "logistics" comes into play. Not for the lowends, but for the mobility of highends. So, rule of thumb, highend prices are the most volatile, while lowend prices are the least volatile. Exceptions, as always, do exist, but not many.
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Cyclops43
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Posted - 2010.03.14 15:33:00 -
[97]
Edited by: Cyclops43 on 14/03/2010 15:33:46 Akita (and others), the reason high-ends are falling now is because of the increased availability. This is caused by the WH addition and the sov changes. Thus THOSE are the reasons high-ends might continue falling, NOT because of any changes to insurance.
Insurance changes will hit all minerals equally... Don't mix cause and effects up. You're blaming the possible insurance change for things that are happening because of OTHER changes.
That you're also blindly assuming that people will continue mining at the same rate even at reduced prices makes your argument even more laughable...
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.14 15:49:00 -
[98]
Originally by: Cyclops43 Akita (and others), the reason high-ends are falling now is because of the increased availability. This is caused by the WH addition and the sov changes. Thus THOSE are the reasons high-ends might continue falling, NOT because of any changes to insurance.
NOW, they are falling because of that, and they will keep low as long as availability ratios are not tweaked again. When/if the insurance payout nerf comes, they will ALSO fall even more because of that.
Quote: Insurance changes will hit all minerals equally... Don't mix cause and effects up. You're blaming the possible insurance change for things that are happening because of OTHER changes. That you're also blindly assuming that people will continue mining at the same rate even at reduced prices makes your argument even more laughable...
There are two different causes which end up having a similar effect. I'm not "mixing" anything here. It CAN'T hit all minerals equally, due to the source of each type of mineral.
The largest source of highends is in 0.0 and w-space, and highends can easily be moved (relative to their total market value). The largest source of lowends is actually highsec, and lowends CAN'T be easily moved, which only makes the fact that lowends ARE the production bottlenecks even worse. People in 0.0 are FORCED to mine at increased rates thanks to the new sov upgrade mechanics. Highends would have naturally ended up dropping either way, it's just that decreasing insurance will make them drop even faster than they otherwise would have.
As long as mining highend (0.0) ores is still marginally more profitable than mining lowend (highsec) ores, and as long as the whole system of ore-to-minerals isn't changed, this will keep happening. So, lowends will be least affected, while highends will be most affected.
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Cid Mutation
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Posted - 2010.03.14 16:36:00 -
[99]
I just finish trying to figure out what where the price change in T2 insurance and it seems they now calculate the moongoo price in the payout.
I'm wandering if they will change BPO because right now they don't show the material requirement on BPO and some of them just show a blank info page on SISI?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.14 17:29:00 -
[100]
Originally by: Cid Mutation I just finish trying to figure out what where the price change in T2 insurance and it seems they now calculate the moongoo price in the payout.
It's not the "moongoo", it's the T2 component price. T2 components also had some weird mostly ass-pulled baseprices (600 ISK armor plates, 7420 thrusters, 4220 microprocessors, 5860 shield emitters, 6020 sensor clusters, 4390 capacitor units, 17580 reactor units)... but the platinum insurance payouts didn't quite match the "sum of the components", especially obvious with ships that had their composition adjusted. All they probably did was adjust those baseprices to the market averages too, and recalculated the insurance based on that again.
If this is true, you'd expect the insurance payout to almost perfectly match the manufacture cost of a T2 ship if done from a perfect ME BPO (even in cases where no BPOs exist) buying all needed materials from the market.
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.03.14 17:30:00 -
[101]
Originally by: Cid Mutation I'm wandering if they will change BPO because right now they don't show the material requirement on BPO and some of them just show a blank info page on SISI?
Just start a 1 run production job and look at the quote for the minerals. It's currently still the same as on TQ.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.03.14 18:34:00 -
[102]
With all this discussion of which minerals will be most effected by this, I haven't seen any mention of supply-side elasticity which seems to me to be the determining factor. The primary effect of eliminating or reducing insurance fraud and suicide ganking will be an across-the-board decrease in mineral demand. (Almost all the demand reduction will be for battleships, which probably have a slightly different mix then the rest of tech 1 production as a whole, but I don't think it will have as significant an effect on the relative changes of mineral prices as the supply side will.)
So the question is, as mineral prices fall, which mineral(s) will most likely have a reduction in supply to stabilize prices first. The answer seems obvious to me that it will be trit. The high-ends will most likely keep coming from 0.0 space and as the high sec players start to move away from mining to missions, the high amounts of pyerite and the mid-range minerals in loot will keep prices of those minerals low.
Macro-miners are obviously the big question mark, but it is still hard to see trit dropping much below 2 and I'm afraid I don't see a bottom for the other minerals if the new insurance system will be dynamic, that is adjusting the platinum level payouts based on market prices instead of just a one-time adjustment.
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Malcanis
Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
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Posted - 2010.03.14 18:36:00 -
[103]
Originally by: Akita T The largest source of lowends is actually highsec,
I'm prepared to bet that there are more lowends outside hi-sec than in it. They're just not used... yet.
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Cid Mutation
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Posted - 2010.03.14 18:57:00 -
[104]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Cid Mutation I just finish trying to figure out what where the price change in T2 insurance and it seems they now calculate the moongoo price in the payout.
It's not the "moongoo", it's the T2 component price. T2 components also had some weird mostly ass-pulled baseprices (600 ISK armor plates, 7420 thrusters, 4220 microprocessors, 5860 shield emitters, 6020 sensor clusters, 4390 capacitor units, 17580 reactor units)... but the platinum insurance payouts didn't quite match the "sum of the components", especially obvious with ships that had their composition adjusted. All they probably did was adjust those baseprices to the market averages too, and recalculated the insurance based on that again.
If this is true, you'd expect the insurance payout to almost perfectly match the manufacture cost of a T2 ship if done from a perfect ME BPO (even in cases where no BPOs exist) buying all needed materials from the market.
The thing is the platinium Insurance payout of a Hulk on TQ rightnow only take into account the fixed price of the reprocessed mineral + the platinium insurance quote like all other ship. On SISI a T1 ship platinium Insurance payout seems to be the perfect ME mineral production base on market average prices. But the T2 ship don't follow those line.
So like you I though that it was the mineral market average prices plus the component market average prices, but it gave me a payout prices of more than 70% of what it is. So I reprocess the component to the reaction component and try with those number and it gave me a payout of more than 25%. So I said to my self lets calculate from the basic all the mineral and moongoo needed to create a T2 ship and I came about half million short of the payout price.
I'll try with other ship to verify this answer, but so far I believe this is the way it is calculated.
I can't check T3 ship so if someone could give me the payout price of T3 on SISI I would like to check those number also.
The other thing that keeps buging me is the insurance quote is no longer added to the insurance payout I wonder why?
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Taedrin
Gallente The Green Cross DEFI4NT
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Posted - 2010.03.14 19:16:00 -
[105]
Originally by: Malcanis
Originally by: Akita T The largest source of lowends is actually highsec,
I'm prepared to bet that there are more lowends outside hi-sec than in it. They're just not used... yet.
Akita is saying that the vast majority of lowend minerals are mined in high sec. After all, why would you mine veldspar in low sec or null sec when you can do so in high sec? ----------
Originally by: Dr Fighter "how do you know when youve had a repro accident"
Theres modules missing and morphite in your mineral pile.
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Loney
CyberDyne R-D
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Posted - 2010.03.14 19:32:00 -
[106]
Edited by: Loney on 14/03/2010 19:35:31 *edit spelling
Assuming all the green highlights are true and the red as my opinions...
I don't see it effecting the miner/mineral market as drastically as like some may seem. The only thing that this will do is make it harder for PVPers to replace lost ships. Forcing them to make up the LOSS of death elsewhere (ratting, mining?, or for corporations/alliances to hand out free/cheap replacements which needs mining/manufacturing).
Yes people will not be self-destructing random ships to get ISK but people will always die just as much regardless of how safe they try to be. Pilots need ships, and there is just not enough T2 or T3 to force everyone to use them.
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 13/03/2010 03:17:06
Ok, I bought both a Drake and a Raven blueprint, and the ME:0 blueprint build costs seem to match exactly my spreadsheet, same story for perfect reprocess values, so I can assume nothing changed there yet.
TQ base mineral prices : 2.00/ 8.00/ 32.00/128.00/512.00/2048.00/8192.00 TQ Forge regional avg. : 2.94/ 7.51/ 30.97/ 55.87/ 82.15/1159.59/2118.07 SiSi Forge regional avg: 2.73/ 6.79/ 22.74/ 44.06/ 63.69/ 942.18/ 94.45 (wtf?) SiSi Forge "v.2" reg.avg:2.75/ 7.50/ 30.30/ 56.00/ 83.00/1180.00/2150.00
The "v2" version is based on eye-guesstimated regional averages just before the mirror, except tritanium which we set at 2.75 manually. agreed
Drake TQ insurance : 38,000,000.00 ISK Drake TQ avg build : 24,976,962.55 ISK [Drake SiSi insurance:24,381,596.0 ISK Drake SiSi avg build:19,690,817.13 ISK Drake SiSi v.2 build:24,482,093.50 ISK
Raven TQ insurance : 108,750,000.00 ISK Raven TQ avg build : 73,298,421.75 ISK Raven SiSi insurance: 70,069,120.0 ISK Raven SiSi avg build: 58,308,426.85 ISK Raven SiSi v.2 build: 71,702,541.50 ISK
It's pretty self-expanatory. They simply changed all base costs of minerals EDIT: for insurance calculation purposes only. Now the only question is, is it static, or is it dynamic ? hopefully dynamic, monthly, it will be fun! It's not instantly dynamic, for sure, or else the insurances would have flown off the bat (as you can see by current market averages), but it might be based on a 20-day average or whatnot, so there's some leeway there.
Originally by: cosmoray Had a thorough look at Sisi and this is a summary of what I found (T1 ships):
1. All racial T1 ships had their base value reduced by about a third (64 - 66% of original). 2. Insurance on all ships was reduced by equal amount by ship type 3. capitals were reduced to around 70 - 75% 4. No other T1 changes found
This would mean:
1. All ships will have about 1/3 less minerals to build It would make no sense what so ever to do this
or
2. Insurance payout on ship destruction was lowered
Market Effects If ships required less minerals expect a complete mineral market crash
Ship loss becomes much more expensive, so players become risk averse. This results in less ship sales, which again results in a complete mineral market crash.
If this is a push to move to T2 and T3 a by product would be to kill the mining profession.
Yeah, I know I haven't replied in this thread for 3 months for some reason... If I could only remember why!
..
Check out our Website in game or out!
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Malcanis
Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
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Posted - 2010.03.14 20:52:00 -
[107]
Originally by: Taedrin
Originally by: Malcanis
Originally by: Akita T The largest source of lowends is actually highsec,
I'm prepared to bet that there are more lowends outside hi-sec than in it. They're just not used... yet.
Akita is saying that the vast majority of lowend minerals are mined in high sec. After all, why would you mine veldspar in low sec or null sec when you can do so in high sec?
Why indeed...?
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.03.28 22:54:00 -
[108]
Insurance devblog coming soon
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1283806&page=7#194
Stay tuned for more speculation, guesses, and doomsayers
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.29 14:18:00 -
[109]
Ah, the "blog Soon™, you will get" line ? Yeah, I heard that before. Wanna' take bets when "early next (this) week" will be ? I'm betting "next Friday at earliest".
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Taua Roqa
Minmatar Woe Hole
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Posted - 2010.03.29 21:49:00 -
[110]
i'm not in jita atm have mineral prices begun to implode yet?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.29 23:02:00 -
[111]
Originally by: Taua Roqa i'm not in jita atm have mineral prices begun to implode yet?
They would have no reason to, since until patchday, you could keep blowing up stuff. If anything, the exact opposite should be happening right now, I'd say, as people try to dump as much minerals into ships to blow'em up. It's just a day or two before patchday that things should start circling down the drain real fast, especially if the insurance changes are confirmed beforehand as certain.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.03.29 23:07:00 -
[112]
Originally by: Taua Roqa i'm not in jita atm have mineral prices begun to implode yet?
Not really. Since people can build battleships and insure them up until they actually make the change, I don't expect to see a real crash start until a few days or a week before. We are all of course waiting to see if the dev blog will tell us if it is coming with the expansion on May 18 or sometime sooner and whether it will be a fixed one-time change or a dynamic adjustment.
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Baillif
Red Mist Inc.
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Posted - 2010.03.30 04:52:00 -
[113]
The dev blog will be out Thursday April 1st. CCP is trolling everyone in the market channel.
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Tekota
legion industries ltd Veni Vidi Vici
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Posted - 2010.03.30 18:35:00 -
[114]
Edited by: Tekota on 30/03/2010 18:37:16 Edited by: Tekota on 30/03/2010 18:35:30 Blog is out... http://www.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&bid=746
Commence speculation.
Edit: Summary *appears to be* - greatly reduced mission minerals, increased low ends in null and low sec, insurance pegged to market values (manually adjusted every X days/weeks/months rather than dynamic).
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