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Kwint Sommer
Caldari Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2010.06.19 10:33:00 -
[1]
Pop open the market and compare the price history of fullerides to the technetium it's made from. In early May technetium grew by a full third. Meanwhile fullerides gyrated a bit but ended up right where they were. In fact, you could pick them up at a discount over the old rate as a recently as yesterday.
Initially I attributed this to a combination of a long production cycle, excessive inventories and uncertainty about longevity of the gains in technetium but now it's been more than a month. Inventories are getting used up, technetium is still high and that's finally percolating through the production cycle.
The stock is drying up. The entire supply in Jita, every last bit on the market, represents merely a high day's trading volume. It can all be bought for a measly 30B.
So, where are fulleride prices going? Are we about to see a sudden adjustment?
More interesting to me, what will a strong upward adjustment in fullerides do to the T2 market?
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2010.06.19 10:53:00 -
[2]
They are also unprofitable to react outside of a chain now for the first time in a long time (also nanotransistors). Guess it depends on what you think about the price of Platinum Technite, which is suspiciously thin.
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The Breadmaster
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Posted - 2010.06.19 11:40:00 -
[3]
Edited by: The Breadmaster on 19/06/2010 11:40:19 Perhaps fullerides and nanotransistors will start trending up, but I doubt it.
This week plat tech has been reacting at a whopping 921k isk per tower hour. A realistic profit would be closer to 300k. In this case oversupply of plat tech in the next two weeks after this posting is a real possibility.
Oversupply of plat tech would in turn bring the margin back to reasonable. True price of plat tech today should be around 23,500 per unit. At that price the simple and complex are reacted at fair margins.
I havent looked today (its dt right now) but I would suspect plat tech of being subject to speculation or manipulation this week sometime after June 14th.
just me 0.02
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Jita Index
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Posted - 2010.06.19 15:12:00 -
[4]
Interesting
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Kwint Sommer
Caldari Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2010.06.23 05:35:00 -
[5]
Three days ago fullerides were selling for 918. Presently they're 962 sell and 940 buy. The market is even thinner now with only a fraction of a day's trading volume on hand. Technetium is still at 40k. So, where are fullerides going and what will that do to T2?
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Ji Sama
Caldari Tash-Murkon Prime Industries manufacturing disaster
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Posted - 2010.06.23 07:48:00 -
[6]
Confirming that this item is currently not being manipulated. I would BUY, BUY and BUY!
PROTIP: BUY UP THE WHOLE LOT; TAKE CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE MARKET; WIN EVE AND OWN THE SERVER!
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Kwint Sommer
Caldari Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2010.06.23 08:34:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Ji Sama Confirming that this item is currently not being manipulated.
Is that a shot at me? I realize my predictions are pretty bullish but if you have an actual argument against them I'd love to hear it?
And regarding buying up the market, I thought about doing it a bit over a week ago when sell orders dipped all the way down to 913. Then there was a nice margin but now it seems we're at the point where the combined effort, loss of liquidity and risk to buy it all up just aren't worth it.
The time to win EVE-market was when the big adjustment came out in favor of technetium. Once everything was sold I cleared 100B off a quick 20B investment and every bit was invested after they made the changes live. That was a bloody gold mine. I hear we had another not so legit one with the introduction of PI. From what I've read they still haven't set that straight....
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.06.23 22:31:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Kwint Sommer
The stock is drying up. The entire supply in Jita, every last bit on the market, represents merely a high day's trading volume. It can all be bought for a measly 30B.
Trust me when I say it ain't even near used up
Speculators are currently/still ever so gently offloading stock.
I would be shocked if stock didn't exceed a trillion ISK - and not one bit surprised if it exceeded 10 trillion ISK.
If what you say about the 30B Jita availability is true, then I personally know of enough stockpiles to supply Jita for a week+.
And that's just what *I* know of.
BIG Lottery |
Clown Pron
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Posted - 2010.06.24 15:19:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Kwint Sommer
Originally by: Ji Sama Confirming that this item is currently not being manipulated.
Is that a shot at me? I realize my predictions are pretty bullish but if you have an actual argument against them I'd love to hear it?
Don't mind him, he's the village idiot
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Kwint Sommer
Caldari Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2010.07.08 22:25:00 -
[10]
Looking back on the last two weeks I see a very peculiar market.
At the beginning of our window we see fullerides slowly gaining. As cheaper sell orders get bought the sell side rises and ready to meet it is the buy side led by a peculiar 4M buy order that has a 4M unit minimum. It's always leading the .01 charge on the buy side but clearly the owner didn't want it filled.
Eventually it got to 970 sell. Then 7B units got bought up until it hit 1000. Then, nothing. Presumably someone bought up those units to relist at the higher price. Simple pump and dump to help the market along towards a new equilibrium. But for the at least half a day after the buyout there was very little competition selling. I easily unloaded a few million units I had lying around.
A day after the buy up there's a big sell off. Buy orders were filled driving them way down. On the sell side a 10M unit block was driving prices down very intentionally. The owner of that order parked it at 1k for a while but is now driving down prices again. Note, sales have broken it down to 7M units.
The final peculiar piece of the puzzle is that after a giant posting of sell orders in previous days (there was over 30B below 1k yesterday) the volume below 1k can now be bought for a mere 11.7B (not counting the 7M order). Where did it all go? Was it just listed to manipulate the market? But then if you own stock already, why drive the price down?
To recap, Natural market pressure should be driving inventory down and as that evaporates, price up to match the fairly stable price of Technetium. Prices were rising with the help of sketchy 4M buy order. Someone bought up the stock from 970 to 1000 but didn't relist it. Then someone intentionally crashed the price and is still pushing it down. But why? Why would someone with inventory want to drop the price of a commodity that should be modestly rising?
Thoughts?
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Kwint Sommer
Caldari Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2010.07.11 19:18:00 -
[11]
Volume evaporated. 6.3B will bring the sell price to 1k. 7.3B will bring it to 1.1k.
The average value of everything below 1k is 976.04. Below 1.1k, 979.39. All sell orders: 1076.53.
Technetium is still at 40k.
It seems like an easy profit to buy and relist everything below 1.1k (7.3B @ 979.39/unit).
If I manage a little liquidity toady I might just have to help fullerides adjust.
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Kwint Sommer
Caldari Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2010.07.12 17:00:00 -
[12]
Bah. Just got up and logged in hoping to find enough stuff had to sold to facilitate buying fullerides all the way to 1.1k.
I have a full 10B sitting in my wallet but it seems someone beet me to the punch. Fullerides are now 1090 and dropping.
So now that the issue of who will help the price adjust is settled, what will prices settle at and what will that do to T2?
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Zenon Mu
Advanced Assemblies and Sciences
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Posted - 2010.07.12 17:39:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Zenon Mu on 12/07/2010 17:42:22 Fullerides right now contribute 10% to ships component price (39% are Nanotransistors, the rest is below 10%), so if they double, the component basket rises 10%.
It is possible, that they'll stay clearly above the 1,000 mark, since POS fuel is on the rise and they already cost about 1,000 ISK to produce them from intermediates.
If you want to adjust something, according to my numbers Sylramics are 9% below their production costs.
edit: I don't know where Fullerides are used besides components, probably ammo/weapons , but I can't help with numbers there.
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Saehta
Sigillum Militum Xpisti R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.07.12 18:35:00 -
[14]
Syl fibers took a bad dip and are dangerously close to operating in the red. Hypersyns and Fermionics are also way under their manufactering costs but that's nothing new for them. -----------------------------------
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Bryg Philomena
Don't Taze Me Bro
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Posted - 2010.07.12 21:59:00 -
[15]
Kwint, if you're watching, there is another manipulator in right now with a 3m unit buyorder with a 3mil minimum amount.
God I wish prices would stay high though.
Originally by: CCP Wrangler Am I reading this correctly? You claim you have a bug that undresses female avatars???
Your signature |
nouki
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Posted - 2010.07.13 16:21:00 -
[16]
someone help out the sylramic fiber go back up too :D ?
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