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Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus IT Alliance
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Posted - 2010.07.10 22:19:00 -
[151]
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:20:33 There is a problem with the 86m / month number. I bet people were buying / selling them from one region to another, i.e. NPC trade routes. Hence the huge numbers that were moved. For instance Verge Vendor had a high avg price of 450 isk / unit and shows 11.7m units there, maybe it was a sell point for NPC trade route traders?
This tells us nothing about what the drones actually require.
Over the same period, 4/11-5/11, 64,656 ogre IIs were sold in Jita 4-4, which is equivalent to 258.6k of Guidance Systems. Even if you multiply that over the 4 large drones, then again for mediums and light, you come out to only about 3.1m / month, as a very rought gustimate and a far cry from 86m / month.
Anyone know if there were NPC Guidance Systems buy orders? and if people actually did those trade routes?
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Icanti
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Posted - 2010.07.10 22:21:00 -
[152]
Edited by: Icanti on 10/07/2010 22:23:08
Originally by: Arthor Dark There is a problem with the 86m / month number. I bet people were buying / selling them from one region to another, i.e. NPC trade routes. Hence the huge numbers that were moved. For instance Verge Vendor had a high avg price of 450 isk / unit and shows 11.7m units there, maybe it was a sell point for NPC trade route traders?
This tells us nothing about what the drones actually require.
Over the same period, 4/11-5/11, 64,656 ogre IIs were sold in Jita 4-4, which is equivalent to 258.6k of Guidance Systems. Even if you multiply that over the 4 large drones, then again for mediums and light, you come out to only about 3.1m / month, as a very rought gustimate and a far cry from 86m / month.
How about people/corps manufacturing for their own consumption?
Edit- Also, Jita is not the only market for drones.....
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Icanti
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Posted - 2010.07.11 10:13:00 -
[153]
Rather than start a new thread.... Consumer electronics are also being sold, right now, for under cost price.
Takes 40 Toxic metals and 40 Chiral Structures to produce 5 Consumer electronics.
Toxic Metals - Lets say they are worth 500 isk per unit (going for 800 in Jita right now)
Chiral Structures - 500 per unit.
40* 500 = 20k
So that's 40k for 5.
8k per Consumer electronic, and yet they are being sold for 3.6k in Jita right now.
People are insane!!!!
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Dr Nefarius
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Posted - 2010.07.11 11:46:00 -
[154]
Originally by: Icanti Edited by: Icanti on 11/07/2010 10:17:37 Take a look at Consumer electronics.
Takes 40 Toxic metals and 40 Chiral Structures to produce 5 Consumer electronics.
Toxic Metals - Lets say they are worth 500 isk per unit (going for 800 in Jita right now)
Chiral Structures - 500 per unit.
40* 500 = 20k
So that's 40k for 5.
8k per Consumer electronic, and yet they are being sold for 3.6k in Jita right now.
People are insane!!!!
I'm afraid I didn't understand the part where you explained why CS was underrated, and not Toxic metals and Chiral Structures beeing overrated....
But yeah, I think CS is likely to climb some more.
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Icanti
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Posted - 2010.07.11 12:25:00 -
[155]
Edited by: Icanti on 11/07/2010 12:25:42
Originally by: Dr Nefarius
I'm afraid I didn't understand the part where you explained why CS was underrated, and not Toxic metals and Chiral Structures beeing overrated....
But yeah, I think CS is likely to climb some more.
I guess it all depends on where the price of the raw products settle.
Currently, Chiral structures are selling below Jita cost price.
Takes 3000 non-CS Crystals to produce 20 Chiral structures.
Non-CS is going for 7.3 isk in Jita.
3000*7= 21k
That's 1050 isk per unit. So based on the current cost of the products, Chiral structures are also undervalued.
Will the P1 products rise or fall from here?
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Dr Nefarius
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Posted - 2010.07.11 13:44:00 -
[156]
I don't think it will be a matter of stable prices for the raw materials. I think the 'standard level' that prices will be set from will be P2, for the simple fact that it's fairly easy to make P2:s (almost all can be done on a single planet), and that there is a direct demand for many P2:s as POS fuel and for t2 manufacturing. For those making other P2:s, they will have something to base their price on as a comparison (or they will shift production).
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pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.11 16:03:00 -
[157]
Originally by: Icanti Edited by: Icanti on 11/07/2010 10:17:37 Take a look at Consumer electronics.
Takes 40 Toxic metals and 40 Chiral Structures to produce 5 Consumer electronics.
Toxic Metals - Lets say they are worth 500 isk per unit (going for 800 in Jita right now)
Chiral Structures - 500 per unit.
40* 500 = 20k
So that's 40k for 5.
8k per Consumer electronic, and yet they are being sold for 3.6k in Jita right now.
People are insane!!!!
It's always a good investment sign when the P2 is undervalued compared to its inputs, and then its major input is also undervalued compared to the P0. Consumer Elec is bound to rise.
But it's not used in Guidance Systems. Perhaps you should start a thread about it?
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
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Posted - 2010.07.11 16:09:00 -
[158]
Originally by: Arthor Dark Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 16:49:32
The 10m units of GS / month above is actually a low value for the consumption. This 10m/month is solely based on the Forge region and solely due to drone construction, which did not account for GS being bought outside of the Forge region. This also does not account for the use of GS in the t4 item that is currently being used in about 1/2 of POS modules. Given those two things, it is more likely that GS consumption is more along the lines of 15m-20m per month and not 10m/month.
With 15-20m / month figure, it would take about 10 to 13 months to eat through the 200m units stockpiled.
Good guess but far from target.Gs was hardly the best npc good to trade there were much better things like wheat for example that were used in daily rotes.Gs was hard to aquire and hard to sell so nobody or very low part of the population were actually trading it. So the numbers you see are mostly for production. knowledge is power |
Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries
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Posted - 2010.07.11 16:55:00 -
[159]
Originally by: Icanti Takes 3000 non-CS Crystals to produce 20 Chiral structures.
Non-CS is going for 7.3 isk in Jita.
Anyone who uses P0 prices in their calculations should be given the same amount of trust as an E-Bank spokesperson.
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Icanti
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Posted - 2010.07.11 17:04:00 -
[160]
Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab
Originally by: Icanti Takes 3000 non-CS Crystals to produce 20 Chiral structures.
Non-CS is going for 7.3 isk in Jita.
Anyone who uses P0 prices in their calculations should be given the same amount of trust as an E-Bank spokesperson.
I'm not saying buy them, I'm just asking are they undervalued or not.
How should we value p0 materials? What should the market value be?
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mechtech
SRS Industries SRS.
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Posted - 2010.07.11 17:14:00 -
[161]
Edited by: mechtech on 11/07/2010 17:16:28
Originally by: Icanti
How should we value p0 materials? What should the market value be?
P0 is costly, and takes more hauling effort to improt and export. Essentially, anybody that knows even the basics of PI will not be importing or exporting P0. P0 might end up undervalued (lots of people exporting P0 only to find no demand) or overvalued (nobody exporting P0 and very low market supply), but either way it doesn't matter.
P1 prices are what you should be looking at as a base price for PI goods. I'd expect P1 to drop and P2 to rise until P2 is finally selling at cost.
As for Guidance Systems, Arthor's posts are interesting. I'm inclined to believe that much of the 80m used per month was used for NPC trading, but certainly 3m GS used per month in the Forge alone for drones is not a small number. Remember, drones are used and bought everywhere, especially 0.0 and WH space. It's safe to say there will be demand for at least 10m a month. They're also used in P4 production (which hasn't picked up at all due to POS module stockpiles). Time will tell...
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
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Posted - 2010.07.11 20:42:00 -
[162]
1-1.7m units of gs traded per day, many of them from buy orders.This means more and more people are not willing to wait and halt their production but instead are bying w/e is on the market.Next week gs hits 18k. knowledge is power |
Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus IT Alliance
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Posted - 2010.07.11 21:02:00 -
[163]
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 11/07/2010 21:04:31
Originally by: Grozen 1-1.7m units of gs traded per day, many of them from buy orders.This means more and more people are not willing to wait and halt their production but instead are bying w/e is on the market.Next week gs hits 18k.
On 7/10, 1.3m unit were sold at 12.5k, over 403 market orders, for an average of about 3.2k units per order. I doubt much of that was from speculators though, as the price has just shifted from 4k to 13k. So maybe it is for production.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.07.14 19:38:00 -
[164]
From anecdotal evidence (and I haven't been to Jita lately) but it seems to me that the current prices for Guidance Systems have started to collapse. You can see various attempts to manipulate the market though. There's one or two people buying from their own abnormally high priced goods to give the "regional market history" an inflated boost.
So much for the whole, "BUY THEM NOW".
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
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Posted - 2010.07.14 19:49:00 -
[165]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
From anecdotal evidence (and I haven't been to Jita lately) but it seems to me that the current prices for Guidance Systems have started to collapse. You can see various attempts to manipulate the market though. There's one or two people buying from their own abnormally high priced goods to give the "regional market history" an inflated boost.
So much for the whole, "BUY THEM NOW".
I don't see manipulation just free market.People are dumping their stockpiles and traders are trading.If anyones tries to buyout the gs he will be in for a sore loss just cuz many ppl can't hold to their stockpiles and will just dump regardless. knowledge is power |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.07.14 19:56:00 -
[166]
Originally by: Shar Tegral You can see various attempts to manipulate the market though. There's one or two people buying from their own abnormally high priced goods to give the "regional market history" an inflated boost.
Originally by: Grozen I don't see manipulation just free market.
If you look at the raw market history you can see the actions at keeping regional averages higher than actual. If that is not manipulation, pray tell, what is? PS: I know this trick as I've used it - mostly against competitors who were trying to spike regional prices downward.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Kwaya
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Posted - 2010.07.14 20:06:00 -
[167]
I agree. Consumer Electronics is going to take a serious dive now. I expect near NPC prices in two weeks time. Everyone holding to CE are in for a nasty surprise.
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pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.14 20:12:00 -
[168]
Originally by: Kwaya I agree. Consumer Electronics is going to take a serious dive now. I expect near NPC prices in two weeks time. Everyone holding to CE are in for a nasty surprise.
Just put up some buy orders and need to get volume moving, huh?
Claiming a P2 is going to be at P1 pricing is pretty dumb. CE will rise long term. It's commonly used in research and as an input for robotics creation as POS fuel, in addition to being a normal PI building block. Any recent changes in its price are consistent with the broadly seen P2/P3 profit taking from the past few days.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.07.14 21:31:00 -
[169]
Originally by: Kwaya Consumer Electronics is going to take a serious dive now. I expect near NPC prices in two weeks time.
Originally by: pmchem Claiming a P2 is going to be at P1 pricing is pretty dumb not very smart.
I agreed with what you said Pmchem (with that small alteration - Mods you know.) especially considering the manipulative attempt by Kwaya on CE. In my mind's eye I see the PI market problem mostly along two distinct lines. - Irrational differences between "cost" and "value".
There are two distinct "cost" polars: Those that bought NPC goods at the old NPC price and those whose time is free. In between there are a few people (maybe 1 - 2) that have the momentum going against them.
- Intentional market manipulation via multiple methods.
Everyone can list me the economic value(s) of doing this but the truth is that its simply psychological activity not really economic skillfulness.
(Yes, I know, business is part psychology but doesn't mean I have to PT Barnum all the time.)
Hmmm, had somewhere I was going with this but with the post timer and then me coming back to this much later... I've forgotten. (Damn this getting old business!)
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
JitaPriceChecker2
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Posted - 2010.07.15 01:19:00 -
[170]
For all of you. Guidance systems are being dropped from MISSIONS. I would sell them and invest money into something else.
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Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics K162
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Posted - 2010.07.15 02:24:00 -
[171]
Originally by: JitaPriceChecker2 For all of you. Guidance systems are being dropped from MISSIONS. I would sell them and invest money into something else.
Last I heard, GS were only dropping in increments of 10. Is there a mission that drops large amounts? If so, which one? Because 10 seems pretty dern irrelevant.
The mission drops ARE a concern for some things, as they are dropping CE and PV in increments of 1000. Hopefully CCP don't take months to fix it. I hadn't heard of GS dropping in noticeable numbers tho.
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Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
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Posted - 2010.07.15 03:30:00 -
[172]
Originally by: Vilgan Mazran
Originally by: JitaPriceChecker2 For all of you. Guidance systems are being dropped from MISSIONS. I would sell them and invest money into something else.
Last I heard, GS were only dropping in increments of 10. Is there a mission that drops large amounts? If so, which one? Because 10 seems pretty dern irrelevant.
The mission drops ARE a concern for some things, as they are dropping CE and PV in increments of 1000. Hopefully CCP don't take months to fix it. I hadn't heard of GS dropping in noticeable numbers tho.
GS drop at an outrageous rate from NPC haulers in Caldari regions.
Just saying.
Been thinking of creating a guide on where to Convoy hunt for particular PI items but can't be arsed at the moment. For now I will say that the best place to get GS, water and construction blocks (so far) is from Caldari corporations. Miniature electronics and livestock are found in abundance among Amarr corporations, and all things radioactive are handled best by Minmatar corporations.
Time permitting I will compile the information soon. For now I have dumped my investment in all PI products that are carried by NPC convoys or found in missions and will not re-invest until CCP puls their head out of their ass.
Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.15 03:45:00 -
[173]
lawl you guys made dbrb panic-sell his guidance systems knocking 2000 off the buy price last night
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Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
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Posted - 2010.07.15 04:04:00 -
[174]
Originally by: Weaselior lawl you guys made dbrb panic-sell his guidance systems knocking 2000 off the buy price last night
Still doing my research, but I was able to pull over 2000 GS in less than 2 hours farming NPC convoys in just one system using an Orca and a Raven. Got over 20k water in the process! I am not interested in truly optimizing the process, but if enough people were I think it would crash many PI markets.
Buyer beware!
Off to Ammatar land to see what drops.
Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
mechtech
SRS Industries SRS.
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Posted - 2010.07.15 04:25:00 -
[175]
Edited by: mechtech on 15/07/2010 04:26:51
Originally by: Patri Andari
Originally by: Weaselior lawl you guys made dbrb panic-sell his guidance systems knocking 2000 off the buy price last night
Still doing my research, but I was able to pull over 2000 GS in less than 2 hours farming NPC convoys in just one system using an Orca and a Raven. Got over 20k water in the process! I am not interested in truly optimizing the process, but if enough people were I think it would crash many PI markets.
Buyer beware!
Off to Ammatar land to see what drops.
Even at GSs at 10k and water at current prices, that's like 12.5m an hour. A Raven alone can make at least double that doing lvl 4s. Assuming the orca account could be semi-afk mining at the same time, yea, that's a pretty terrible way to spend your time.
You're probably just trying to crash the market though (looks like one of GoonSwarms GS holders already panic sold), if so, hats off to ya
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Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
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Posted - 2010.07.15 05:21:00 -
[176]
Originally by: mechtech Edited by: mechtech on 15/07/2010 04:26:51
Originally by: Patri Andari
Originally by: Weaselior lawl you guys made dbrb panic-sell his guidance systems knocking 2000 off the buy price last night
Still doing my research, but I was able to pull over 2000 GS in less than 2 hours farming NPC convoys in just one system using an Orca and a Raven. Got over 20k water in the process! I am not interested in truly optimizing the process, but if enough people were I think it would crash many PI markets.
Buyer beware!
Off to Ammatar land to see what drops.
Even at GSs at 10k and water at current prices, that's like 12.5m an hour. A Raven alone can make at least double that doing lvl 4s. Assuming the orca account could be semi-afk mining at the same time, yea, that's a pretty terrible way to spend your time.
You're probably just trying to crash the market though (looks like one of GoonSwarms GS holders already panic sold), if so, hats off to ya
Not trying to crash the market just making the information available. That being said, it is a pvp game amiright?
Some people are holding on to these investments thinking they are sound and safe. Well nothing in Eve is safe, and no one has a right to reap untold billions without any risks.
Pay attention to the competition and be one step ahead or loose your shirt. I LOVE this game. As for the wasted opportunity costs? meh I did not want to run those missions anyway. In fact, I bought the Raven pilot to pirate. Being able to kill NPC convoys with impunity is an added bonus! The Orca pilt was created as a way to traffic expensive goods without being ganked. I mean who mines anymore?
Another update:
It seems that Khanid space is ripe for convoy shenanigins. Lots of miniature electronics, mechanical parts and livestock. Fertilizer is abundant also. Guidance system drops are rare there but they do happen.
Best part is the only corps in Khanid are Khanid corps and Concord. That means no matter how much you damage your standings you just are considered persona non gratus in Khanid, one of the easiest regions in eve to avoid. Only down side is that there are so few stations.
Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.07.15 05:57:00 -
[177]
If it is true the number of people who jumped in and bought GS's then that is a massive bubble.
You only make a profit when you sell the item, and if everyone is trying to sell the price goes down. Sure some people will make some serious money by jumping in and out early but a lot of other players will have to ride it out until demand catches up with supply.
This type of speculation is very long term when done in very large quantities.
Also don't be surprised if CCP looks at the PI output and realises that for certain items there is not enough hitting the market. A quick patch later and you find that the certain item CCP was worried about now makes 5X or 10X as much per run as previous. Anyone holding the item in terms of speculation is screwed.
CCP will be laughing as the mass purchase of NPC goods ended up being a nice little ISK sink.
First rule about Eve patches. Get in and out fast. Work out the holes created by CCP mistakes, invest and sell fairly quickly before changes can be made.
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
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Posted - 2010.07.15 08:19:00 -
[178]
Edited by: Grozen on 15/07/2010 08:18:55 Look at all the panic selling.Well done lol.Maybe i can stock some more of this at 800 each. knowledge is power |
mechtech
SRS Industries SRS.
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Posted - 2010.07.15 08:47:00 -
[179]
Originally by: cosmoray If it is true the number of people who jumped in and bought GS's then that is a massive bubble.
You only make a profit when you sell the item, and if everyone is trying to sell the price goes down. Sure some people will make some serious money by jumping in and out early but a lot of other players will have to ride it out until demand catches up with supply.
This type of speculation is very long term when done in very large quantities.
Also don't be surprised if CCP looks at the PI output and realises that for certain items there is not enough hitting the market. A quick patch later and you find that the certain item CCP was worried about now makes 5X or 10X as much per run as previous. Anyone holding the item in terms of speculation is screwed.
CCP will be laughing as the mass purchase of NPC goods ended up being a nice little ISK sink.
First rule about Eve patches. Get in and out fast. Work out the holes created by CCP mistakes, invest and sell fairly quickly before changes can be made.
I don't think so. POSs are approaching 1/2 of NPC price, almost all POS mods are dropping, ect. There is almost no chance that CCP will increase output. Hell, the macros are only in rudimentary stages and not even working well yet. Once macros get up and running the PI supply will increase yet again.
The bare minimum for P1 prices is about 100 isk per. At this level, a PI macro doing 30 minute cycles can afford a GTC, and a little bit of isk on the side (well below a mining or ratting macro though). At 100 isk per P1, GSs are still 10k per.
Personally, I think this panic selling is incredibly short sighted. I personally won't sell until, at the very least, the build cost equals the sell cost and the market levels out. Of course, that's how the market works, short sighted investors cash out, longer term investors buy up the stock, and the price eventually reaches equilibrium.
Apparently the people selling at 8k can't be bothered to open up a spreadsheet and do the basic calculations, so they can go ahead and cash out at this ridiculous price, I won't stop them
I will admit the stockpile is huge, maybe more than a year in size. If you're not willing to wait 6 months to a year to cash out, cashing now might be an ok option. Of course, any smart person who needed isk in the short term would have cashed out when GSs spiked a bit under a week ago, so I basically see the people selling now as the losers.
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
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Posted - 2010.07.15 12:44:00 -
[180]
This is taken from the recent csm meeting: 15:30-16:30 POS Structures / Components CCP Attendees: Eyj=lfur û CCP DrEyjoG, Arnar û CCP Zulupark
This session discussed the unfortunate market situation related to the introduction of planetary interaction, where players could stockpile some of the end products of PI such as Guidance Systems, thus adversely affecting the profitability of their production, as well as buying POS structures from NPCs and reprocessing them for PI goods at greatly reduced cost.
The CSM asked how this situation came about without CCP realizing it, and pointed out that some players had figured this out on Singularity and were ready to make use of it immediately after deployment on Tranquility.
CCP will try to learn from this experience in order to avoid similar things in the future.
Action Point: CCP will do research into the history of this issue and publish a dev blog about it, identifying what steps will be taken to prevent similar things in the future.
They are not going to do anything about this cosmoray you are wrong this time. knowledge is power |
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