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Icanti
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Posted - 2010.07.04 12:34:00 -
[1]
In the absence of being able to short anything in eve (easily), we may as well all jump on the inflationary bandwagon that PI has brought us.
How are these so cheap at the moment?
If you buy now, you may be able to make 12 times of the amount you invested.
Of course this is not in anyway guaranteed and you may lose money :)
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Tekota
legion industries ltd Veni Vidi Vici Alliance
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Posted - 2010.07.04 12:58:00 -
[2]
So.... how many are you trying to unload right now?
On the offchance that this isn't an attempt to manufacture a gold rush, the short answer is stockpiles.
But yep they'll almost certainly go up a not insignificant amount. Timescales harder to predict of course.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.07.04 13:12:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Icanti If you buy now, you may be able to make 12 times of the amount you invested. Of course this is not in anyway guaranteed and you may lose money :)
This is a market manipulation attempt. You can always tell because they point out that if you, and not them, buy now - Profit! Always be wary of any public disclosure of profit. Anecdotally, 9/10 it is a trap.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.04 13:20:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Icanti If you buy now, you may be able to make 12 times of the amount you invested
...in about 2 to 3 years, when existing stockpiles have been mostly used up.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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mental maverick
Duty. Duty. Private Security
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Posted - 2010.07.04 13:33:00 -
[5]
I agree with Shar that it's a market manipulation attempt. But, it's also true depending on what kind of time scale you're looking at, and 2-3 years might be a bit long Akita, I'd say 1-2, tops. Yeah, i know, not that short term either
But if you have isk thats just sitting in your wallet or if you are going away for a couple months it might not be a bad idea. There are better ways to make money but it's virtually effort free and as stable as an invesment gets with that kind of potential return. Not something to do if your looking for a quick buck though.
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Icanti
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Posted - 2010.07.04 14:43:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Icanti If you buy now, you may be able to make 12 times of the amount you invested. Of course this is not in anyway guaranteed and you may lose money :)
This is a market manipulation attempt. You can always tell because they point out that if you, and not them, buy now - Profit! Always be wary of any public disclosure of profit. Anecdotally, 9/10 it is a trap.
OK lets just do the numbers. I'll use current Jita sell prices.
Currently to make 3 units you need
10 x Water-cooled CPU units = 99990 isk 10 x Transmitter = 31690 isk
So to produce 3 it costs 131k
Thats 43k per unit. (hopefully I've got my numbers right)
This morning, Guidance systems were being sold for 5.5k per unit, they have now risen to 6.9k per unit.
So yeah, what a market manipulation attempt. I'm simply asking what the hell is going on?
I guess it is people dumping stockpiles atm then. But god knows why they are settling for such low ball amounts.
So before you scream, "9/10 it is a trap", do the math!
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Lt Angus
Caldari the united Negative Ten.
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Posted - 2010.07.04 14:49:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Lt Angus on 04/07/2010 14:50:46 Doesn't matter how much it costs to make them if no one wants them, no one in their right mind will produce any for a few years. theres plenty of low stockpiled p2 to short term right now please resize your signature to the maximum allowed file size of 24000 bytes. Navigator Shhhh, Im hunting Badgers |
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
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Posted - 2010.07.04 14:56:00 -
[8]
Edited by: Grozen on 04/07/2010 14:57:08 by the end of november guidance systems will be well over 45k nobody will be stupid enough to sell at produce cost.You're looking at more then 60k per unit. knowledge is power |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.07.04 15:07:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Icanti 10 x Water-cooled CPU units = 99990 isk 10 x Transmitter = 31690 isk
Your math presumes that these prices will stay consistent as well. Mind you I'm not saying this is NOT a good deal. However your motivation is not for the betterment of others. That's the whitewash.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus IT Alliance
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Posted - 2010.07.04 15:29:00 -
[10]
There was a total of 200m units of Guidance systems bought in atleast 3 regions that I checked. About 10m per month was being moved in forge. So, that makes it about 20 months to clear the stockpiles. Though, keep in mind, the demand was at 418isk per unit, now it's alot higher, however, people will need t2 drones, and the cost per drone (which is not huge if guidance systems go up to 40k) would be passed on to drone users.
Also, guidance systems are being consumed for t4 purposes as well so maybe it will be quicker than 20 months.
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mental maverick
Duty. Duty. Private Security
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Posted - 2010.07.04 15:46:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Icanti
I guess it is people dumping stockpiles atm then. But god knows why they are settling for such low ball amounts.
Because they bought them at 418 isk/unit and are making more than 10x the isk back selling at 5k+
Guessing from the nature of your OP you bought some at 4-5k hoping to make a quick buck and the price isn't going the way you want as fast as you want..?
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pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.04 15:58:00 -
[12]
As people have mentioned, the reason the price is so low is because of stockpiles. However, I think those stockpiles will clear faster than people anticipate. Previously, Forge volume was just one part of GS sales. You could get them from NPCs in many regions and many producers did. Now, Forge is basically the only place to buy (unless you stockpiled and hold them elsewhere for production). A lot more GS were being used per day than pre-Tyrannis Forge volumes indicate.
Anyway, if you ignore the past and look at the current state of PI, they're a decent investment, although you really missed the boat if you didn't get them at NPC prices. I got them at NPC prices~
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Charles37
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Posted - 2010.07.04 16:45:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Icanti
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Icanti If you buy now, you may be able to make 12 times of the amount you invested. Of course this is not in anyway guaranteed and you may lose money :)
This is a market manipulation attempt. You can always tell because they point out that if you, and not them, buy now - Profit! Always be wary of any public disclosure of profit. Anecdotally, 9/10 it is a trap.
OK lets just do the numbers. I'll use current Jita sell prices.
Currently to make 3 units you need
10 x Water-cooled CPU units = 99990 isk 10 x Transmitter = 31690 isk
So to produce 3 it costs 131k
Thats 43k per unit. (hopefully I've got my numbers right)
This morning, Guidance systems were being sold for 5.5k per unit, they have now risen to 6.9k per unit.
So yeah, what a market manipulation attempt. I'm simply asking what the hell is going on?
I guess it is people dumping stockpiles atm then. But god knows why they are settling for such low ball amounts.
So before you scream, "9/10 it is a trap", do the math!
By this reasoning, almost every single P2 and P3 item should be a fantastic investment (last time I bothered to check) since most are selling for well under production costs. There's a handful of items that you can make a profit on buying the components off the market, running them through extractors, and then selling, but not many and the market is still too volatile (imo) to do this as a reliable source of income.
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Icanti
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Posted - 2010.07.04 18:41:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Charles37
By this reasoning, almost every single P2 and P3 item should be a fantastic investment (last time I bothered to check) since most are selling for well under production costs.
Pretty much... Guidance systems are just the most extreme example.
It remains to be seen whether or not people have the patience to supply enough PI material to match demand.
Unless we see some clickative easing from CCP or enough PI products were stockpiled pre the removal of the NPC orders to meet demand for the next few years, its a sure bet prices will rise.
Don't really understand the hostility in this thread to this idea.
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Kieselguhr Kid
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Posted - 2010.07.04 18:53:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Icanti
Don't really understand the hostility in this thread to this idea.
The friendly people ITT are the ones who have already stockpiled guidance systems for the long term and want to see a quicker short term price hike so they can dump. The hostile ones are those who have free liquidity and want to see 3K-5K guidance systems a while longer so they can fill their buys in relative peace.
(I got mine, let's go to the top thread~)
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Charles37
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Posted - 2010.07.04 19:38:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Icanti
Unless we see some clickative easing from CCP or enough PI products were stockpiled pre the removal of the NPC orders to meet demand for the next few years, its a sure bet prices will rise.
While I'm not arguing with you on this point, I can't help but wonder: Could you be doing something more productive with all the isk that you're tying up into those massive stockpiles? Do you think prices are going to rise so much that your isk is best spent sitting in your hangar in Jita instead of being reinvested into other, shorter term, ventures?
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mental maverick
Duty. Duty. Private Security
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Posted - 2010.07.04 19:47:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Icanti
Unless we see some clickative easing from CCP or enough PI products were stockpiled pre the removal of the NPC orders to meet demand for the next few years, its a sure bet prices will rise.
Don't really understand the hostility in this thread to this idea.
No hostility towards the idea that they will go up in price, I just dont think it will go as fast as some ppl might think.
I also think that there will be a threshold at some point were profits just gets to good for the NPC stockpilers to not offload on the market. Maybe 10k, and it might stay there for a while until the major players have depleeted some of their stock, since ppl will want to liquidate sooner or later.
If you want a bit longer term, low effort investment or just have a bunch of isk sitting in your wallet its actually a very good and, as you mentioned, a pretty secure investment unless CCP pokes their stick in the machinery.
If you think you'll do better than the price development of guidance systems by just running your regular operation than you should continue to do that, and i think some ppl will.
Guidance systems will go up slow and steady for a long while is my guess.
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Janice Polito
Tech 3 Hotsauce Limited
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Posted - 2010.07.04 19:54:00 -
[18]
Edited by: Janice Polito on 04/07/2010 19:55:46
Originally by: Icanti
Unless we see some clickative easing from CCP or enough PI products were stockpiled pre the removal of the NPC orders to meet demand for the next few years, its a sure bet prices will rise.
Or PI gets buffed at some point, and instead of producing 3 Guidance Systems per cycle, a processor outputs 6 or 12. Combined with fixing the clickfest problems and reducing export taxes, simple changes would help PI and hurt long-term stockpilers. |
Icanti
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Posted - 2010.07.04 20:41:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Janice Polito
Or PI gets buffed at some point, and instead of producing 3 Guidance Systems per cycle, a processor outputs 6 or 12. Combined with fixing the clickfest problems and reducing export taxes, simple changes would help PI and hurt long-term stockpilers.
True, they could do this, which would devalue guidance systems for both PI producers and NPC stock pilers.
However, it is in CCP's and PI producers interests for PI prices to rise, I think this is the important factor here.
Without PI being worth anything, no one will bother and Dust won't be as much of a success. No one will be fighting over resources no one cares about.
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Janice Polito
Tech 3 Hotsauce Limited
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Posted - 2010.07.04 20:52:00 -
[20]
Don't worry, dude, PI at this point is worth quite a lot. Guidance systems aren't even close to being the most profitable item out there.
If anything, prices for some products need to come -down-, but they won't due to the supply crunch. And with PI being such a clickfest nightmare, combined with P3 and P4 production being it's own completely separate nightmare, means the supply crunch isn't going anywhere without some changes to the whole system. |
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pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.05 02:00:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Janice Polito Don't worry, dude, PI at this point is worth quite a lot. Guidance systems aren't even close to being the most profitable item out there.
Yup, that's exactly it. Even at this evening's prices, GS are very very far from being the most profitable P3. In fact they're one of the worst -- you're better off selling the P2 ingredients than actually making GS. Therefore, smart PI producers will not make them, people that need GS will buy them off the market, and the price will continue to rise until the market has fully equilibrated. GS are still undervalued.
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
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Posted - 2010.07.05 03:50:00 -
[22]
Well that was fast nice to see a 5k jump in a day. knowledge is power |
Janice Polito
Tech 3 Hotsauce Limited
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Posted - 2010.07.05 03:53:00 -
[23]
Originally by: pmchem
Yup, that's exactly it. Even at this evening's prices, GS are very very far from being the most profitable P3. In fact they're one of the worst -- you're better off selling the P2 ingredients than actually making GS. Therefore, smart PI producers will not make them, people that need GS will buy them off the market, and the price will continue to rise until the market has fully equilibrated. GS are still undervalued.
I meant not even close to being the most profitable item to have stockpiled (for now, but this will also hold true later), but thanks for this, goon sire |
Thrasymachus TheSophist
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Posted - 2010.07.05 04:33:00 -
[24]
Enjoy and stockpile while it lasts.
Soon, the console-kiddies will be blowin' up your command centers and eating up all those PI goods that seem so abundant today to make their little OMGBBQ tanks, ROFL choppers, PEW PEW rifles, etc.
Speaking of, I wonder if EVEBank has started buying up PI mat'ls yet? Every day wasted is a few percentage points of profit.
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pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.05 16:02:00 -
[25]
If Dust lets people blow up command centers I am gonna laugh pretty hard; that'd be great.
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Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus IT Alliance
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Posted - 2010.07.05 16:17:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Thrasymachus TheSophist Enjoy and stockpile while it lasts.
Soon, the console-kiddies will be blowin' up your command centers and eating up all those PI goods that seem so abundant today to make their little OMGBBQ tanks, ROFL choppers, PEW PEW rifles, etc.
Speaking of, I wonder if EVEBank has started buying up PI mat'ls yet? Every day wasted is a few percentage points of profit.
Soon = 1-2 years from now.
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Martosh Toma
Gallente Fraction Investment
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Posted - 2010.07.05 16:35:00 -
[27]
indeed I use these guidance systems for my production and will be buying from the marken as soon as my stock runs out (wich probebly will be just after the eve cluster is shut down)
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.05 19:55:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Thrasymachus TheSophist Enjoy and stockpile while it lasts.
Soon, the console-kiddies will be blowin' up your command centers and eating up all those PI goods that seem so abundant today to make their little OMGBBQ tanks, ROFL choppers, PEW PEW rifles, etc.
Speaking of, I wonder if EVEBank has started buying up PI mat'ls yet? Every day wasted is a few percentage points of profit.
I see you missed the ebank "npc goods? what are those?" thread when someone asked if they'd gotten in on it
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Icanti
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Posted - 2010.07.05 20:05:00 -
[29]
We now have 8.8k and rising.
60% rise in 24 hours.
Guidance systems, got yours?
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Malcanis
Caldari Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
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Posted - 2010.07.05 21:18:00 -
[30]
Originally by: pmchem If Dust lets people blow up command centers I am gonna laugh pretty hard; that'd be great.
That's pretty much the whole point of Dust.
Malcanis' Law: Whenever a mechanics change is proposed on behalf of "new players", that change is always to the overwhelming advantage of richer, older players. |
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