Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 .. 11 :: [one page] |
|
Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 0 post(s) |
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 12:34:00 -
[1]
In the absence of being able to short anything in eve (easily), we may as well all jump on the inflationary bandwagon that PI has brought us.
How are these so cheap at the moment?
If you buy now, you may be able to make 12 times of the amount you invested.
Of course this is not in anyway guaranteed and you may lose money :)
|
Tekota
legion industries ltd Veni Vidi Vici Alliance
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 12:58:00 -
[2]
So.... how many are you trying to unload right now?
On the offchance that this isn't an attempt to manufacture a gold rush, the short answer is stockpiles.
But yep they'll almost certainly go up a not insignificant amount. Timescales harder to predict of course.
|
Shar Tegral
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 13:12:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Icanti If you buy now, you may be able to make 12 times of the amount you invested. Of course this is not in anyway guaranteed and you may lose money :)
This is a market manipulation attempt. You can always tell because they point out that if you, and not them, buy now - Profit! Always be wary of any public disclosure of profit. Anecdotally, 9/10 it is a trap.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 13:20:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Icanti If you buy now, you may be able to make 12 times of the amount you invested
...in about 2 to 3 years, when existing stockpiles have been mostly used up.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
|
mental maverick
Duty. Duty. Private Security
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 13:33:00 -
[5]
I agree with Shar that it's a market manipulation attempt. But, it's also true depending on what kind of time scale you're looking at, and 2-3 years might be a bit long Akita, I'd say 1-2, tops. Yeah, i know, not that short term either
But if you have isk thats just sitting in your wallet or if you are going away for a couple months it might not be a bad idea. There are better ways to make money but it's virtually effort free and as stable as an invesment gets with that kind of potential return. Not something to do if your looking for a quick buck though.
|
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 14:43:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Icanti If you buy now, you may be able to make 12 times of the amount you invested. Of course this is not in anyway guaranteed and you may lose money :)
This is a market manipulation attempt. You can always tell because they point out that if you, and not them, buy now - Profit! Always be wary of any public disclosure of profit. Anecdotally, 9/10 it is a trap.
OK lets just do the numbers. I'll use current Jita sell prices.
Currently to make 3 units you need
10 x Water-cooled CPU units = 99990 isk 10 x Transmitter = 31690 isk
So to produce 3 it costs 131k
Thats 43k per unit. (hopefully I've got my numbers right)
This morning, Guidance systems were being sold for 5.5k per unit, they have now risen to 6.9k per unit.
So yeah, what a market manipulation attempt. I'm simply asking what the hell is going on?
I guess it is people dumping stockpiles atm then. But god knows why they are settling for such low ball amounts.
So before you scream, "9/10 it is a trap", do the math!
|
Lt Angus
Caldari the united Negative Ten.
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 14:49:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Lt Angus on 04/07/2010 14:50:46 Doesn't matter how much it costs to make them if no one wants them, no one in their right mind will produce any for a few years. theres plenty of low stockpiled p2 to short term right now please resize your signature to the maximum allowed file size of 24000 bytes. Navigator Shhhh, Im hunting Badgers |
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 14:56:00 -
[8]
Edited by: Grozen on 04/07/2010 14:57:08 by the end of november guidance systems will be well over 45k nobody will be stupid enough to sell at produce cost.You're looking at more then 60k per unit. knowledge is power |
Shar Tegral
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 15:07:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Icanti 10 x Water-cooled CPU units = 99990 isk 10 x Transmitter = 31690 isk
Your math presumes that these prices will stay consistent as well. Mind you I'm not saying this is NOT a good deal. However your motivation is not for the betterment of others. That's the whitewash.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus IT Alliance
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 15:29:00 -
[10]
There was a total of 200m units of Guidance systems bought in atleast 3 regions that I checked. About 10m per month was being moved in forge. So, that makes it about 20 months to clear the stockpiles. Though, keep in mind, the demand was at 418isk per unit, now it's alot higher, however, people will need t2 drones, and the cost per drone (which is not huge if guidance systems go up to 40k) would be passed on to drone users.
Also, guidance systems are being consumed for t4 purposes as well so maybe it will be quicker than 20 months.
|
|
mental maverick
Duty. Duty. Private Security
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 15:46:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Icanti
I guess it is people dumping stockpiles atm then. But god knows why they are settling for such low ball amounts.
Because they bought them at 418 isk/unit and are making more than 10x the isk back selling at 5k+
Guessing from the nature of your OP you bought some at 4-5k hoping to make a quick buck and the price isn't going the way you want as fast as you want..?
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 15:58:00 -
[12]
As people have mentioned, the reason the price is so low is because of stockpiles. However, I think those stockpiles will clear faster than people anticipate. Previously, Forge volume was just one part of GS sales. You could get them from NPCs in many regions and many producers did. Now, Forge is basically the only place to buy (unless you stockpiled and hold them elsewhere for production). A lot more GS were being used per day than pre-Tyrannis Forge volumes indicate.
Anyway, if you ignore the past and look at the current state of PI, they're a decent investment, although you really missed the boat if you didn't get them at NPC prices. I got them at NPC prices~
|
Charles37
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 16:45:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Icanti
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Icanti If you buy now, you may be able to make 12 times of the amount you invested. Of course this is not in anyway guaranteed and you may lose money :)
This is a market manipulation attempt. You can always tell because they point out that if you, and not them, buy now - Profit! Always be wary of any public disclosure of profit. Anecdotally, 9/10 it is a trap.
OK lets just do the numbers. I'll use current Jita sell prices.
Currently to make 3 units you need
10 x Water-cooled CPU units = 99990 isk 10 x Transmitter = 31690 isk
So to produce 3 it costs 131k
Thats 43k per unit. (hopefully I've got my numbers right)
This morning, Guidance systems were being sold for 5.5k per unit, they have now risen to 6.9k per unit.
So yeah, what a market manipulation attempt. I'm simply asking what the hell is going on?
I guess it is people dumping stockpiles atm then. But god knows why they are settling for such low ball amounts.
So before you scream, "9/10 it is a trap", do the math!
By this reasoning, almost every single P2 and P3 item should be a fantastic investment (last time I bothered to check) since most are selling for well under production costs. There's a handful of items that you can make a profit on buying the components off the market, running them through extractors, and then selling, but not many and the market is still too volatile (imo) to do this as a reliable source of income.
|
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 18:41:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Charles37
By this reasoning, almost every single P2 and P3 item should be a fantastic investment (last time I bothered to check) since most are selling for well under production costs.
Pretty much... Guidance systems are just the most extreme example.
It remains to be seen whether or not people have the patience to supply enough PI material to match demand.
Unless we see some clickative easing from CCP or enough PI products were stockpiled pre the removal of the NPC orders to meet demand for the next few years, its a sure bet prices will rise.
Don't really understand the hostility in this thread to this idea.
|
Kieselguhr Kid
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 18:53:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Icanti
Don't really understand the hostility in this thread to this idea.
The friendly people ITT are the ones who have already stockpiled guidance systems for the long term and want to see a quicker short term price hike so they can dump. The hostile ones are those who have free liquidity and want to see 3K-5K guidance systems a while longer so they can fill their buys in relative peace.
(I got mine, let's go to the top thread~)
|
Charles37
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 19:38:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Icanti
Unless we see some clickative easing from CCP or enough PI products were stockpiled pre the removal of the NPC orders to meet demand for the next few years, its a sure bet prices will rise.
While I'm not arguing with you on this point, I can't help but wonder: Could you be doing something more productive with all the isk that you're tying up into those massive stockpiles? Do you think prices are going to rise so much that your isk is best spent sitting in your hangar in Jita instead of being reinvested into other, shorter term, ventures?
|
mental maverick
Duty. Duty. Private Security
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 19:47:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Icanti
Unless we see some clickative easing from CCP or enough PI products were stockpiled pre the removal of the NPC orders to meet demand for the next few years, its a sure bet prices will rise.
Don't really understand the hostility in this thread to this idea.
No hostility towards the idea that they will go up in price, I just dont think it will go as fast as some ppl might think.
I also think that there will be a threshold at some point were profits just gets to good for the NPC stockpilers to not offload on the market. Maybe 10k, and it might stay there for a while until the major players have depleeted some of their stock, since ppl will want to liquidate sooner or later.
If you want a bit longer term, low effort investment or just have a bunch of isk sitting in your wallet its actually a very good and, as you mentioned, a pretty secure investment unless CCP pokes their stick in the machinery.
If you think you'll do better than the price development of guidance systems by just running your regular operation than you should continue to do that, and i think some ppl will.
Guidance systems will go up slow and steady for a long while is my guess.
|
Janice Polito
Tech 3 Hotsauce Limited
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 19:54:00 -
[18]
Edited by: Janice Polito on 04/07/2010 19:55:46
Originally by: Icanti
Unless we see some clickative easing from CCP or enough PI products were stockpiled pre the removal of the NPC orders to meet demand for the next few years, its a sure bet prices will rise.
Or PI gets buffed at some point, and instead of producing 3 Guidance Systems per cycle, a processor outputs 6 or 12. Combined with fixing the clickfest problems and reducing export taxes, simple changes would help PI and hurt long-term stockpilers. |
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 20:41:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Janice Polito
Or PI gets buffed at some point, and instead of producing 3 Guidance Systems per cycle, a processor outputs 6 or 12. Combined with fixing the clickfest problems and reducing export taxes, simple changes would help PI and hurt long-term stockpilers.
True, they could do this, which would devalue guidance systems for both PI producers and NPC stock pilers.
However, it is in CCP's and PI producers interests for PI prices to rise, I think this is the important factor here.
Without PI being worth anything, no one will bother and Dust won't be as much of a success. No one will be fighting over resources no one cares about.
|
Janice Polito
Tech 3 Hotsauce Limited
|
Posted - 2010.07.04 20:52:00 -
[20]
Don't worry, dude, PI at this point is worth quite a lot. Guidance systems aren't even close to being the most profitable item out there.
If anything, prices for some products need to come -down-, but they won't due to the supply crunch. And with PI being such a clickfest nightmare, combined with P3 and P4 production being it's own completely separate nightmare, means the supply crunch isn't going anywhere without some changes to the whole system. |
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.05 02:00:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Janice Polito Don't worry, dude, PI at this point is worth quite a lot. Guidance systems aren't even close to being the most profitable item out there.
Yup, that's exactly it. Even at this evening's prices, GS are very very far from being the most profitable P3. In fact they're one of the worst -- you're better off selling the P2 ingredients than actually making GS. Therefore, smart PI producers will not make them, people that need GS will buy them off the market, and the price will continue to rise until the market has fully equilibrated. GS are still undervalued.
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2010.07.05 03:50:00 -
[22]
Well that was fast nice to see a 5k jump in a day. knowledge is power |
Janice Polito
Tech 3 Hotsauce Limited
|
Posted - 2010.07.05 03:53:00 -
[23]
Originally by: pmchem
Yup, that's exactly it. Even at this evening's prices, GS are very very far from being the most profitable P3. In fact they're one of the worst -- you're better off selling the P2 ingredients than actually making GS. Therefore, smart PI producers will not make them, people that need GS will buy them off the market, and the price will continue to rise until the market has fully equilibrated. GS are still undervalued.
I meant not even close to being the most profitable item to have stockpiled (for now, but this will also hold true later), but thanks for this, goon sire |
Thrasymachus TheSophist
|
Posted - 2010.07.05 04:33:00 -
[24]
Enjoy and stockpile while it lasts.
Soon, the console-kiddies will be blowin' up your command centers and eating up all those PI goods that seem so abundant today to make their little OMGBBQ tanks, ROFL choppers, PEW PEW rifles, etc.
Speaking of, I wonder if EVEBank has started buying up PI mat'ls yet? Every day wasted is a few percentage points of profit.
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.05 16:02:00 -
[25]
If Dust lets people blow up command centers I am gonna laugh pretty hard; that'd be great.
|
Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus IT Alliance
|
Posted - 2010.07.05 16:17:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Thrasymachus TheSophist Enjoy and stockpile while it lasts.
Soon, the console-kiddies will be blowin' up your command centers and eating up all those PI goods that seem so abundant today to make their little OMGBBQ tanks, ROFL choppers, PEW PEW rifles, etc.
Speaking of, I wonder if EVEBank has started buying up PI mat'ls yet? Every day wasted is a few percentage points of profit.
Soon = 1-2 years from now.
|
Martosh Toma
Gallente Fraction Investment
|
Posted - 2010.07.05 16:35:00 -
[27]
indeed I use these guidance systems for my production and will be buying from the marken as soon as my stock runs out (wich probebly will be just after the eve cluster is shut down)
|
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.05 19:55:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Thrasymachus TheSophist Enjoy and stockpile while it lasts.
Soon, the console-kiddies will be blowin' up your command centers and eating up all those PI goods that seem so abundant today to make their little OMGBBQ tanks, ROFL choppers, PEW PEW rifles, etc.
Speaking of, I wonder if EVEBank has started buying up PI mat'ls yet? Every day wasted is a few percentage points of profit.
I see you missed the ebank "npc goods? what are those?" thread when someone asked if they'd gotten in on it
|
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.05 20:05:00 -
[29]
We now have 8.8k and rising.
60% rise in 24 hours.
Guidance systems, got yours?
|
Malcanis
Caldari Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
|
Posted - 2010.07.05 21:18:00 -
[30]
Originally by: pmchem If Dust lets people blow up command centers I am gonna laugh pretty hard; that'd be great.
That's pretty much the whole point of Dust.
Malcanis' Law: Whenever a mechanics change is proposed on behalf of "new players", that change is always to the overwhelming advantage of richer, older players. |
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.07 23:59:00 -
[31]
Why aren't all the ebank guidance system posts in this thread?
Still one of the most profitable P3 investments~
|
Thrasymachus TheSophist
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 00:06:00 -
[32]
Originally by: pmchem Why aren't all the ebank guidance system posts in this thread?
Still one of the most profitable P3 investments~
8/10. I lol'd.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 03:57:00 -
[33]
I'll give you one... Goons purchased many millions of these and their own personal analysis of them they realized it was a poor choice and they want out for as much as they can get. So they come in here post in every PI thread that Guidance Systems are the best investment out there.
I got out of it when they where 8K couldn't be happier, made a fortune, moved onto something else that is actually going somewhere.
All these goons in this forum toting GS's one must ask... WHY? OH YEAH that's right they already said they purchased MILLIONS of them.
It's your own wallet funeral if you get sucked into something that the Goon's want you to do.
Amarr for Life |
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 04:31:00 -
[34]
Originally by: SencneS
I got out of it when they where 5K couldn't be happier, made a fortune, moved onto something else that is actually going somewhere.
So on a scale of "1 to ebank" how silly do you feel for cashing out at 5k on an item that has already risen by over another 50%, has a steeply positive price history, and is severely undervalued compared to its ingredients?
I'm guessing - "ebank"
|
Tiberius Smacchus
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 04:32:00 -
[35]
Originally by: SencneS It's your own wallet funeral if you deposit your ISK with ebank
fixed that for you
|
Tamir Lenk
Caldari GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 04:43:00 -
[36]
Originally by: SencneS Edited by: SencneS on 08/07/2010 04:12:21 I'll give you one... Goons purchased many millions of these and their own personal analysis of them they realized it was a poor choice and they want out for as much as they can get. So they come in here post in every PI thread that Guidance Systems are the best investment out there.
I got out of it when they where 5K couldn't be happier, made a fortune, moved onto something else that is actually going somewhere.
All these goons in this forum toting GS's one must ask... WHY? OH YEAH that's right they already said they purchased MILLIONS of them.
It's your own wallet funeral if you get sucked into something that the Goon's want you to do.
u mad?
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 04:43:00 -
[37]
I have to lower my posts down meet the metal capacity of those talking to me...
I'm damn happy I cash out at 5K, the 4,500 ISK profit I made 550,000 times allowed me to buy a LOT more low price P2/P3 items in which I've turned around and made almost two times as much as I would have made if I had waiting until now to sell my GS's..
See I made 2.5B selling out 5K. I took that 2.5B and turned it into 8B. If I had waited to sell out right now I'd only have made 4B.
So answer this question, would you rather... 4.4B profit? Or 8B??
Yeah, that's what I thought..
Amarr for Life |
Samm Carterr
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 04:47:00 -
[38]
Originally by: SencneS I have to lower my posts down meet the metal capacity of those talking to me...
I'm damn happy I cash out at 5K, the 4,500 ISK profit I made 550,000 times allowed me to buy a LOT more low price P2/P3 items in which I've turned around and made almost two times as much as I would have made if I had waiting until now to sell my GS's..
See I made 2.5B selling out 5K. I took that 2.5B and turned it into 8B. If I had waited to sell out right now I'd only have made 4B.
So answer this question, would you rather... 4.4B profit? Or 8B??
Yeah, that's what I thought..
oh ****
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 04:49:00 -
[39]
Originally by: Tamir Lenk
u mad?
lol this is what your ultimate comeback? Or is this a literal question? I better answer it just to make sure.. No, not at all, in fact I'm rather jovial right now. Are you mad?
Amarr for Life |
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 04:51:00 -
[40]
Originally by: SencneS Or 8B??
Yeah, that's what I thought..
Oh man, 8b. only 100 more expansions and ebank will be solvent
|
|
Priscilla Fancypants
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 04:57:00 -
[41]
Edited by: Priscilla Fancypants on 08/07/2010 04:58:35
Originally by: SencneS I have to lower my posts down meet the metal capacity of those talking to me...
I'm damn happy I cash out at 5K, the 4,500 ISK profit I made 550,000 times allowed me to buy a LOT more low price P2/P3 items in which I've turned around and made almost two times as much as I would have made if I had waiting until now to sell my GS's..
See I made 2.5B selling out 5K. I took that 2.5B and turned it into 8B. If I had waited to sell out right now I'd only have made 4B.
So answer this question, would you rather... 4.4B profit? Or 8B??
Yeah, that's what I thought..
So you're saying the 20mil units of guidance I have isn't worth holding onto say 20k unit? Ohdear time to dump now!!!
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 05:00:00 -
[42]
hey sencnes here you said you made under 1b on GS: "Unlike GS's which I did get in on at the NPC level. The problem is so did everyone else. I'm glad I sold out of my small stock and getting only netted a almost 1B profit while I could because I'll be damned if I had to wait 6 months plus to see a bigger return." http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1349157&page=1#14
but now you're saying you made a lot more than that... wishful thinking? if you didn't make 2.5b off GS I'm guessing you didn't make 8b down the road either.
Keep spinning those tales for the ebank investor report...
|
Kieselguhr Kid
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 05:05:00 -
[43]
Originally by: SencneS Edited by: SencneS on 08/07/2010 04:12:21 I'll give you one... Goons purchased many millions of these and their own personal analysis of them they realized it was a poor choice and they want out for as much as they can get. So they come in here post in every PI thread that Guidance Systems are the best investment out there.
I got out of it when they where 5K couldn't be happier, made a fortune, moved onto something else that is actually going somewhere.
All these goons in this forum toting GS's one must ask... WHY? OH YEAH that's right they already said they purchased MILLIONS of them.
It's your own wallet funeral if you get sucked into something that the Goon's want you to do.
confirming that our choice to stockpile millions of units of 418 isk guidance systems currently selling for 9,000 each with a manufacturing cost of 40,000 was a horrible choice and Ebank would be broke if you followed us now
|
Kieselguhr Kid
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 05:26:00 -
[44]
some other confirmations:
confirming that waiting a year to sell our millions of guidance systems for a 10,000% (27.5%/day) profit will make us very sad
confirming that 100% of your depositors would instantly take a deal under which you would pay them the stated value of their accounts in guidance systems valued at 40,000 isk a unit
confirming that at least one guy ITT could actually make that deal, were he stupid enough to take five impossible to move ME 2 titan BPOs in return for his greatly overvalued guidance systems
confirming that we will be flying titans made out of those BPOs long before Ebank makes enough isk to pay back its depositors around the second Sarah Palin administration
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 05:40:00 -
[45]
Originally by: pmchem hey sencnes here you said you made under 1b on GS: "Unlike GS's which I did get in on at the NPC level. The problem is so did everyone else. I'm glad I sold out of my small stock and getting only netted a almost 1B profit while I could because I'll be damned if I had to wait 6 months plus to see a bigger return." http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1349157&page=1#14
but now you're saying you made a lot more than that... wishful thinking? if you didn't make 2.5b off GS I'm guessing you didn't make 8b down the road either.
Keep spinning those tales for the ebank investor report...
When I posted that I didn't include my original purchase. Sorry for not including every aspect of my GS investments. Call my a hypocrite if you like for re-investing into a rising item is not a poor choice.. BUt for your benefit here is my GS investment in detail.
I purchased about 550K of GS's at 418 ISK each. Sold them on the 6.18 for 3.2K that only comes to about 1.5B profit. However a few day later after getting another BIG return on another PI item, I reinvesting into GS's why not at the time it was still too cheap. Purchase another 450,000 units at 3,000 ISK. Turned around and sold em for 5,150, for a sale of 1B (That's the 1B in that post) So sales was 2.5B total. It's actually a 2.6B.
What is misleading about what I just posted in this thread is that 8B profit includes the 1B in GS. So sorry for misleading there, but the statement is still the same. If I didn't sell out I wouldn't have been able to buy other items.
Would I invest into that now? NO FREAKING WAY, there are far better opportunity out there. But a week ago, GS's was a good investment.
All your other brainless Goons, this is PERSONAL INVESTMENT nothing to do with EBANK.. I have more personal ISK then EBANK ISK.
Amarr for Life |
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 05:45:00 -
[46]
Originally by: Priscilla Fancypants So you're saying the 20mil units of guidance I have isn't worth holding onto say 20k unit? Ohdear time to dump now!!!
You're dreaming if you think they'll hit 20K a unit.
Amarr for Life |
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 05:49:00 -
[47]
Originally by: Kieselguhr Kid some other confirmations:
confirming that waiting a year to sell our millions of guidance systems for a 10,000% (27.5%/day) profit will make us very sad
confirming that 100% of your depositors would instantly take a deal under which you would pay them the stated value of their accounts in guidance systems valued at 40,000 isk a unit
confirming that at least one guy ITT could actually make that deal, were he stupid enough to take five impossible to move ME 2 titan BPOs in return for his greatly overvalued guidance systems
confirming that we will be flying titans made out of those BPOs long before Ebank makes enough isk to pay back its depositors around the second Sarah Palin administration
Confirming something in which you have no power over is like taking your foot and shoving it in your mouth
Good read though, worthy of laughing at again.
Amarr for Life |
Priscilla Fancypants
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 06:28:00 -
[48]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Priscilla Fancypants So you're saying the 20mil units of guidance I have isn't worth holding onto say 20k unit? Ohdear time to dump now!!!
You're dreaming if you think they'll hit 20K a unit.
If it doesn't hit 40k unit ill be shocked. Mr. Ebank here is counting on it reaching that. I personally plan to make my 400bil at 20k unit :3:.
Orginally the prediction was 4-5k unit in 2-3months, It hit 10k unit in 3 weeks.
|
mechtech
SRS Industries SRS.
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 06:48:00 -
[49]
Edited by: mechtech on 08/07/2010 06:48:40
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Priscilla Fancypants So you're saying the 20mil units of guidance I have isn't worth holding onto say 20k unit? Ohdear time to dump now!!!
You're dreaming if you think they'll hit 20K a unit.
IMO you're dead wrong. Consumer electronics are going up. Mechanical parts are going up. They already take 40k isk to build. On what basis do you make your assumption? If you have solid reasoning, please discuss it, that's the point of this thread. Being combative is just making you look incompetent and look like a common troll.
Furthermore, you cashed out a small amount of guidance systems. Many of us have well over 100B worth of them that we plan to liquidate over a period of months. We can't simply dump and buy up other PI on a whim like you can. Also, anyone that had foresight has a basket of multiple PI goods. I for example, would not want to liquidate and GS and buy other P2/P3, because I already have the other P2/P3 that's going up. Schizophrenic buying and selling isn't the safest way to make isk. You can turn stock quickly with less than 10B isk, but if you're investing real isk into PI, it's in your best interest to make calculated moves and wait, much like the stock market.
"I have to lower my posts down meet the metal capacity of those talking to me..." is not a way to start a post, that's simply a way to spur people into making EBANK jokes.
"You're dreaming if you think they'll hit 20K a unit." is a terrible post as well, lets discuss why... I'll start with my argument.
Consumer electronics are going up, mechanical parts are going up (and going up because it's a ***** to make mech parts in high sec), and they already take 40k isk to build. Also, stockpile volumes are overstated. Demand for guidance systems wasn't only in the forge pre-patch. Producers bought GSs from NPCs all over eve, and if you take a look at the total volume being traded (Sinq Laison consumed as much as The Forge pre-patch for example), the demand for GS is very very high. Because of this, I believe GSs will keep rising steadily (with a few short periods of leveling out as players cash out) to at least 40k a unit. People with large stocks of over 10m guidance systems (such as the Goon investors, and me with 20m of them) will bleed them onto the market in the coming 6 months once the build cost meets the selling price.
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 10:21:00 -
[50]
Edited by: Grozen on 08/07/2010 10:22:47 holy cow sunday when i was observing things were calm and prices even fell down a bit.But today most of the stuff is shooting up and gs-2m units traded so far today!!!!! Price up to 14k in a DAY. knowledge is power |
|
Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 10:44:00 -
[51]
Damn, seems I missed my chance at selling them for 5k... ;(
|
mental maverick
Duty. Duty. Private Security
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 11:17:00 -
[52]
Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab Damn, seems I missed my chance at selling them for 5k... ;(
Yeah, same here. I feel so stupid right now. I should have listened when I had the chance. I mean how could I miss it when there is a veritable novel on the forums explaining why GSs are the worst investment ever.
^^Might regret that later but I very much doubt it
|
Maria Yumeno
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 11:57:00 -
[53]
lol... i had a spare 100m lying around a couple of days ago, so i bought up a few gs at 8k p/u.
Checked last night and they were still pretty low so i just kept them listed at 13k. never thought they would double in price over a couple of days. ohh well, at least a made a few mill on them.
|
Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 12:09:00 -
[54]
Now at 18k. I guess this bubble will burst at any moment and vindicate early sellers.
|
Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics K162
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 12:24:00 -
[55]
Edited by: Vilgan Mazran on 08/07/2010 12:25:15
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Priscilla Fancypants So you're saying the 20mil units of guidance I have isn't worth holding onto say 20k unit? Ohdear time to dump now!!!
You're dreaming if you think they'll hit 20K a unit.
18.2k/unit now. Perhaps you might want to amend your statement?
Will probably drop a bit short term, but still well on their way towards 30-40k/unit. Heck, the huge difference in build cost vs sell cost is despite the fact that transmitters are still artificially low due to being npc sold as well. Still another 2k to go on transmitters most likely.
|
Maria Yumeno
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 12:49:00 -
[56]
Edited by: Maria Yumeno on 08/07/2010 12:50:32 Edited by: Maria Yumeno on 08/07/2010 12:50:11
Originally by: SencneS Edited by: SencneS on 08/07/2010 04:12:21 I'll give you one... Goons purchased many millions of these and their own personal analysis of them they realized it was a poor choice and they want out for as much as they can get. So they come in here post in every PI thread that Guidance Systems are the best investment out there.
I got out of it when they where 5K couldn't be happier, made a fortune, moved onto something else that is actually going somewhere.
All these goons in this forum toting GS's one must ask... WHY? OH YEAH that's right they already said they purchased MILLIONS of them.
It's your own wallet funeral if you get sucked into something that the Goon's want you to do.
The goons would have made u a fortune had you only had some patience
|
Lt Angus
Caldari the united Negative Ten.
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 13:52:00 -
[57]
Im sure hes made a lot more then 4x that with the money hes liquidated by now, PI hopping is an easy double up+ per day on anything you can throw at it please resize your signature to the maximum allowed file size of 24000 bytes. Navigator Shhhh, Im hunting Badgers |
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 14:41:00 -
[58]
I stopped posting because I had to sleep, why did sencnes stop posting in this thread?
oh, wait, another overnight price doubling
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:15:00 -
[59]
Originally by: Maria Yumeno The goons would have made u a fortune had you only had some patience
LOL So goons FINALLY put their money where their mouth was and purchased up the inventory in Jita in an attempt to manipulate this SLOW MOVING market. Good you guys you're starting to think like REAL Marketeers!
Cashflow has no room for patience. Here is a proverb, Never look a gift horse in the mouth.
Assuming I DID hold onto my original purchase all this time, I'd have to sell at the same time everyone else is trying to sell for, people with MILLIONS of units. That's not a good market position. You want to know what would make me regret not holding them.. If they where 40K right now.. Why? Because then that would represent profit I could not have obtained doing what I am doing. Hell right now it's barely even 1B ISK more then what I've made off PI overall. But guess what I still have inventory of other PI items and I still haven't reached my full realized profit.
You better hope half of High-sec doesn't jump on the bandwagon and start pumping these things out. Here is a sheet with what I'm capable of producing with a setup using a binary planet setup, in which they all planets produce GS's with minimal logistics. They all produce excess and the excess is moved to the other plants once every few days. Not much logistics since they are all in the same system and a Inty IV can handle it.
I got to tell ya... 600mil for the minimal effort.. That'll keep me in PLEXs for a long time.
PS- I alway re-read before I post just in case.. I too went to bed.. Here is my continuation.
Amarr for Life |
Dramaticus
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:18:00 -
[60]
we're too dumb to manipulate a market
Please don't use RL pictuers of players in Sig without permission. - WeatherMan |
|
Puss Bag
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:20:00 -
[61]
Ya'll dumb and poor.
|
pushedback
GoonWaffe
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:22:00 -
[62]
we do have rather low metal capacities you know
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:22:00 -
[63]
Edited by: pmchem on 08/07/2010 15:22:15 sencnes, I would only believe you had created a spreadsheet if it was hosted on isketch.com
The best PI spreadsheet for guiding safe production profits is here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ar_YTOcXpvb9dGFIdHJlb0VmYXBORWRrcXFkeHNjcWc&hl=en_GB#gid=10
Wyke's from S&I forum. As you can see, producing GS is a stupid loss of isk compared to selling the P2s or producing other P3s, hence ebank should get into it immediately and I'm glad you have planned it out.
Also goons are too lazy to manipulate markets overnight hope that helps.
|
Kieselguhr Kid
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:25:00 -
[64]
confirming that we manipulated the guidance system market between 4 AM and 11 AM EST, prime time for this particular corporation based out of Ulan Bator, Mongolia
further confirming that we are all terrified of the prospect of producers teaming up to sell their own stockpiles of guidance systems at 40% of their build cost to stop the big, bad goons from selling our stockpiles 11 months ahead of our own predicted schedule
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:28:00 -
[65]
Originally by: pmchem The best PI spreadsheet for guiding safe production profits is here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ar_YTOcXpvb9dGFIdHJlb0VmYXBORWRrcXFkeHNjcWc&hl=en_GB#gid=10
That's a great sheet if you're buying the products... The one I just showed you is not. That's what 4 Planets is capable of producing, 4 Planets I own right now..
Apart from the initial setup cost it wouldn't cost me any ISK to maintain this setup. Just a little bit of my time every couple of days.. For 600+ Mil per month I can handle that.
Amarr for Life |
Kieselguhr Kid
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:30:00 -
[66]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: pmchem The best PI spreadsheet for guiding safe production profits is here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ar_YTOcXpvb9dGFIdHJlb0VmYXBORWRrcXFkeHNjcWc&hl=en_GB#gid=10
That's a great sheet if you're buying the products... The one I just showed you is not. That's what 4 Planets is capable of producing, 4 Planets I own right now..
Apart from the initial setup cost it wouldn't cost me any ISK to maintain this setup. Just a little bit of my time every couple of days.. For 600+ Mil per month I can handle that.
"It doesn't matter what it costs to produce if you buy the items, because my time is free"
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:34:00 -
[67]
Originally by: Kieselguhr Kid "It doesn't matter what it costs to produce if you buy the items, because my time is free"
LOL why did I think you fools would say that..
No it's not free.. If I calculate it like this... 600mil per month / 720 hours = 833,333 ISK an hour.
Let shoot REALLY long and say it takes me 1 hour to move products every 2 days. That's 30 hours a month.
30 Hours * 833,333 = 24,999,990 ISK. That's how much it cost me.
So my profit is really only 575mil ISK a month. OMG that's STILL worth the effort!
Amarr for Life |
Maria Yumeno
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:35:00 -
[68]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Maria Yumeno The goons would have made u a fortune had you only had some patience
LOL So goons FINALLY put their money where their mouth was and purchased up the inventory in Jita in an attempt to manipulate this SLOW MOVING market. Good you guys you're starting to think like REAL Marketeers!
Cashflow has no room for patience. Here is a proverb, Never look a gift horse in the mouth.
Assuming I DID hold onto my original purchase all this time, I'd have to sell at the same time everyone else is trying to sell for, people with MILLIONS of units. That's not a good market position. You want to know what would make me regret not holding them.. If they where 40K right now.. Why? Because then that would represent profit I could not have obtained doing what I am doing. Hell right now it's barely even 1B ISK more then what I've made off PI overall. But guess what I still have inventory of other PI items and I still haven't reached my full realized profit.
You better hope half of High-sec doesn't jump on the bandwagon and start pumping these things out. Here is a sheet with what I'm capable of producing with a setup using a binary planet setup, in which they all planets produce GS's with minimal logistics. They all produce excess and the excess is moved to the other plants once every few days. Not much logistics since they are all in the same system and a Inty IV can handle it.
I got to tell ya... 600mil for the minimal effort.. That'll keep me in PLEXs for a long time.
PS- I alway re-read before I post just in case.. I too went to bed.. Here is my continuation.
People in hi-sec will only start building them if they actually become profitable to produce. At the moment they are not. Assuming most people will only work for a minimum of 10m isk an hour i'd anticipate that GS will continue to go up, however there are still much more profitable prospects out there for those willing to do some research. For those not, almost any and every p3 will turn over a profit. Robotics is on it's way right up.
People are right in saying there is lots of speculation going on, this is obviously because of the massive amounts of potential profits compared to the relatively low risk. I don't see how anyone investing sensible would not be able to at least double their money over the space of a month.
|
pushedback
GoonWaffe
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:39:00 -
[69]
Originally by: SencneS
Let shoot REALLY long and say it takes me 1 hour to move products every 2 days. That's 30 hours a month.
|
Supertrader
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:45:00 -
[70]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Kieselguhr Kid "It doesn't matter what it costs to produce if you buy the items, because my time is free"
LOL why did I think you fools would say that..
No it's not free.. If I calculate it like this... 600mil per month / 720 hours = 833,333 ISK an hour.
Let shoot REALLY long and say it takes me 1 hour to move products every 2 days. That's 30 hours a month.
30 Hours * 833,333 = 24,999,990 ISK. That's how much it cost me.
So my profit is really only 575mil ISK a month. OMG that's STILL worth the effort!
I think I just lost some IQ points by reading this post
|
|
Kieselguhr Kid
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:45:00 -
[71]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Kieselguhr Kid "It doesn't matter what it costs to produce if you buy the items, because my time is free"
LOL why did I think you fools would say that..
No it's not free.. If I calculate it like this... 600mil per month / 720 hours = 833,333 ISK an hour.
Let shoot REALLY long and say it takes me 1 hour to move products every 2 days. That's 30 hours a month.
30 Hours * 833,333 = 24,999,990 ISK. That's how much it cost me.
So my profit is really only 575mil ISK a month. OMG that's STILL worth the effort!
you are correct; using this calculation, your time is not free. since you are making guidance systems rather than selling the P2s that go into them, assuming the 20K guidance systems that were never happening wind up actually happening tomorrow and their true build cost is 40K, you are paying other people roughly 575m a month to play Guidance Systems Online instead.
but you know that, because you're in charge of the biggest bank in Eve Onlihaahahahhahaha
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:47:00 -
[72]
Originally by: Maria Yumeno People in hi-sec will only start building them if they actually become profitable to produce. At the moment they are not. Assuming most people will only work for a minimum of 10m isk an hour i'd anticipate that GS will continue to go up, however there are still much more profitable prospects out there for those willing to do some research. For those not, almost any and every p3 will turn over a profit. Robotics is on it's way right up.
People are right in saying there is lots of speculation going on, this is obviously because of the massive amounts of potential profits compared to the relatively low risk. I don't see how anyone investing sensible would not be able to at least double their money over the space of a month.
People in high-sec will build them from planets because there is virtually zero cost associated with it, and because maintaining it simple. It also doesn't occupy your time like say... Missioning or Regional Trading. PI is something everyone can do and still continue to do what they would normally do.
So PI is nothing more then a boost to ones wallet. Even a lazy 96 hour extractor cycle turns some ISK and that's as lazy as you can get. It's almost on part with Datacore harvesting. What will happen is people will naturally gravitate toward that which is the biggest profit with effort. At the moment that HAS to be Guidance Systems. If you pick the right planets you can make a good amount of P3's with a little research. If PI was time intense I would agree with you, no point doing something that consumes all your time for pennies, but that's not the case.
Meh it doesn't matter anyway, right now the 18K is depleting fast to 15K in Jita. The thing about toting a market spike as a victory is the market bites back.
Amarr for Life |
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:54:00 -
[73]
Originally by: Kieselguhr Kid you are correct; using this calculation, your time is not free. since you are making guidance systems rather than selling the P2s that go into them, assuming the 20K guidance systems that were never happening wind up actually happening tomorrow and their true build cost is 40K, you are paying other people roughly 575m a month to play Guidance Systems Online instead.
but you know that, because you're in charge of the biggest bank in Eve Onlihaahahahhahaha
Wait a second... what?? do you even realize what you just said.. You should stop posting while you think you're ahead because soon you'll realize what you're spewing out and a FFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUU moment..
Amarr for Life |
Ilarra
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:56:00 -
[74]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Kieselguhr Kid you are correct; using this calculation, your time is not free. since you are making guidance systems rather than selling the P2s that go into them, assuming the 20K guidance systems that were never happening wind up actually happening tomorrow and their true build cost is 40K, you are paying other people roughly 575m a month to play Guidance Systems Online instead.
but you know that, because you're in charge of the biggest bank in Eve Onlihaahahahhahaha
Wait a second... what?? do you even realize what you just said.. You should stop posting while you think you're ahead because soon you'll realize what you're spewing out and a FFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUU moment..
Let's try a hypothetical. If I can sell a guidance system for 100 isk, but I can sell the components to make a guidance system for 200 isk, why would I want to manufacture the guidance system at all?
|
Bel Arvardan
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 15:57:00 -
[75]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Kieselguhr Kid "It doesn't matter what it costs to produce if you buy the items, because my time is free"
LOL why did I think you fools would say that..
No it's not free.. If I calculate it like this... 600mil per month / 720 hours = 833,333 ISK an hour.
Let shoot REALLY long and say it takes me 1 hour to move products every 2 days. That's 30 hours a month.
30 Hours * 833,333 = 24,999,990 ISK. That's how much it cost me.
So my profit is really only 575mil ISK a month. OMG that's STILL worth the effort!
Wait, do I get this right? Your time is worth ~900k isk/hour? Well lets tell you something: There are fun jobs in this world that pay 10$. A gametime card (2xPLEX) Brings you about 600M isk. So if you are doing ANYTHING in this game for isk and not for fun, it should yield way above 100M isk/hour. Ah wait, you have fun playing PI. Nevermind. Forget what I said.
|
mechtech
SRS Industries SRS.
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 16:06:00 -
[76]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Kieselguhr Kid "It doesn't matter what it costs to produce if you buy the items, because my time is free"
LOL why did I think you fools would say that..
No it's not free.. If I calculate it like this... 600mil per month / 720 hours = 833,333 ISK an hour.
Let shoot REALLY long and say it takes me 1 hour to move products every 2 days. That's 30 hours a month.
30 Hours * 833,333 = 24,999,990 ISK. That's how much it cost me.
So my profit is really only 575mil ISK a month. OMG that's STILL worth the effort!
This is the single stupidest MD post I have ever read, I hope to god you're drunk.
congratulations.
(Also, the point of spiking a market like that is to increase the buy/sell margin, let the buy orders breathe, and let buy order price increas. As of now GSs are stabilizing at 9-10k isk buy orders, or 30% higher than before the spike. The sell order price will fall back down near the buy order price, that's a given in market manipulation)
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 16:10:00 -
[77]
Originally by: Bel Arvardan Wait, do I get this right? Your time is worth ~900k isk/hour?
Why are you guys trying to be pretend to be smarter when you just keep putting your brain on hold..
900K per hour for that particular function. My time per hour is easily worth 100mil maybe more at the rate I'm making ISK. But for this particular function of building GS's my time would only be worth... 900K.
As for selling P2 items for more then the combine P3 items, sure. That's why these planets can produce more then required. But lets face it.. Water cooled CPUs are great right now, and they are easy to make, in large numbers. But Water-Cooled CPUs are only used to make Supercomputers and Guidance Systems. They have no other consumption point, not like Transmitters which DO have other uses.
See the awesomeness of having a binary planet setup is each planet produces more then the possible consumption. It also gives you a natural stop-gap before they get consumed so if the market is better you CAN cash out at that level instead of building the next stage.
What, you think I don't know this LOL. Sorry to disappoint, besides I'm building more profitable items with these planets anyway. Just if I wanted to I could build GS's and make 575mil a month (If they are 18K, which they are not) After all, with this talk about them getting to 40K well.. that's 1.2-1.3B per month profit.. That's highly attractive so setting up to be in that position is a smart thing to do, would you not agree?
Amarr for Life |
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 16:17:00 -
[78]
Originally by: mechtech This is the single stupidest MD post I have ever read, I hope to god you're drunk.
What, proper time calculation for any given function too much for you to understand or something?
It's pretty simple, this function would get me 600mil per month, how many hours would it take me to get that 600mil? 720. So per hour it's 835K. How many hours does it take for me to maintain that, 15 hours. 835,000*30 = 25.05mil.
Why you don't understand this is clear but why you choose to call it stupid is... meh whatever makes you feel more secure I guess.
Amarr for Life |
Maria Yumeno
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 16:23:00 -
[79]
Originally by: SencneS
Meh it doesn't matter anyway, right now the 18K is depleting fast to 15K in Jita. The thing about toting a market spike as a victory is the market bites back.
I'm into a different p3, the Guidance systems i just invested a little left over money when they were at 8k p/u
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 16:24:00 -
[80]
Originally by: SencneS besides I'm building more profitable items with these planets anyway. Just if I wanted to I could build GS's
So after all this you admit everyone else is right and that building GS is such a dumb thing to do, even ebank isn't doing it. Nice gem buried there.
|
|
The Mittani
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 16:32:00 -
[81]
i have approximately 100 billion isk in guidance systems at the moment
that's pretty cool, thanks gs isk
Sins of a Solar Spymaster: my ~fair and balanced~ column TheMittani @ Twitter
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 16:34:00 -
[82]
Originally by: pmchem
Originally by: SencneS besides I'm building more profitable items with these planets anyway. Just if I wanted to I could build GS's
So after all this you admit everyone else is right and that building GS is such a dumb thing to do, even ebank isn't doing it. Nice gem buried there.
What does EBANK have to do with any of this??
In case you missed the point, wait I'll rephrase... Since you missed the point, what I was showing you is this is how much a single player with 4 planets can make if they choose to produce GS's... Not many will at the moment, because there are better items out there.
The whole point is at 18K a GS for a single person can make 600mil per month doing next to nothing. Just how long before the other more profitable items crash and they move onto GS's. That's what all you goons should consider while you hold onto your millions of units wait for the 20-40K price range...
Amarr for Life |
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 17:01:00 -
[83]
Originally by: SencneS Since you missed the point, what I was showing you is this is how much a single player with 4 planets can make if they choose to produce GS's... Not many will at the moment, because there are better items out there.
And we come full circle with sencnes making the argument for us that people aren't producing GS and shouldn't be producing GS, and therefore their price has nowhere to go but up. Thanks!!
|
mental maverick
Duty. Duty. Private Security
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 17:12:00 -
[84]
Originally by: SencneS
The whole point is at 18K a GS for a single person can make 600mil per month doing next to nothing.
30 h of active game time is what you consider next to nothing? Well have fun clicking and hauling then I guess...
On a more serious note, I think you just found the bottom threshold for GSs on a long term. Considering 25 mil/h is what a decent lvl 4 mission runner is earning with no demands on when to log on or worrying about market competition I'd say 20k is the lower limit before ppl move on to other stuff.
|
Ray McCormack
Nordar Innovations.
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 17:13:00 -
[85]
Yo goons, sup?
|
Maria Yumeno
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 17:24:00 -
[86]
Edited by: Maria Yumeno on 08/07/2010 17:33:14
Originally by: SencneS
It's pretty simple, this function would get me 600mil per month, how many hours would it take me to get that 600mil?
Mind posting your calculations? (if u didn't already, is late and i might have skipped past them)
600m a month for a 20k isk p3 seems a bit extreme. When i was calculating my p0>p2 profits i was getting around 30m a day based on a price of 15k isk,i was being conservative as i know i won't always be on to refresh my extractors when the cycle ends. 20m a day for a loss making p3 seems a bit high even if it taken all the way from p0 and nothing is bought off the market.
Edit - Forgot to mention, my calculations are based on 0.0 planets with an extractor rate of 4500/hr (2250/cycle) and each planet supporting 21 structures, i had it split down to about 12 extractors and 9 factories (making p1's - input 6000units p/h) in 4 planets with a planet setup for p2's.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 17:31:00 -
[87]
Originally by: Maria Yumeno Mind posting your calculations? (if u didn't already is late and i might have skipped past them)
600m a month for a 20k isk p3 seems a bit extreme.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=tpnadCTMH9ryuAcnMLa-89g&hl=en#gid=0
That's what I am capable of doing, not that I am but that is an option. And you're right, 600mil a month is extreme.
Amarr for Life |
Kieselguhr Kid
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 17:33:00 -
[88]
Originally by: Ray McCormack Yo goons, sup?
Not too much. Keep a few of those BPCs in reserve for us, will you?
|
Mme Pinkerton
United Engineering Services
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 17:43:00 -
[89]
Edited by: Mme Pinkerton on 08/07/2010 17:47:31
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Kieselguhr Kid "It doesn't matter what it costs to produce if you buy the items, because my time is free"
LOL why did I think you fools would say that..
No it's not free.. If I calculate it like this... 600mil per month / 720 hours = 833,333 ISK an hour.
Let shoot REALLY long and say it takes me 1 hour to move products every 2 days. That's 30 hours a month.
30 Hours * 833,333 = 24,999,990 ISK. That's how much it cost me.
So my profit is really only 575mil ISK a month. OMG that's STILL worth the effort!
wut?
edit: Could you please lay out the analogon of the calculation above for the case of mining Tritanium in a Retriever?
|
Maria Yumeno
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 17:46:00 -
[90]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Maria Yumeno Mind posting your calculations? (if u didn't already is late and i might have skipped past them)
600m a month for a 20k isk p3 seems a bit extreme.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=tpnadCTMH9ryuAcnMLa-89g&hl=en#gid=0
That's what I am capable of doing, not that I am but that is an option. And you're right, 600mil a month is extreme.
Any way to make the document public? i don't have a Google ID, also. does it include the calculations, or just the numbers?
Sounds like your assumptions may be a little high, either using a 5hr cycle time or ott extraction rates....
basically i figured each p1 planet can kick out 40x9 units per hr (360) x 4 planets makes 1440 units. p2's take 80 units per hr... so they will make 18x5 units an hr (90) which is around 65k a month. or close to 1bn a month @18k p/u (fairly optimistic).
I never looked into how many units p3 require per hr. but i find it very hard to believe they are only losing 30% of their p2 value if priced at 20k isk (only 33% more than the p2 value)
|
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 17:56:00 -
[91]
Edited by: SencneS on 08/07/2010 17:56:14
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton
wut?
edit: Could you please lay out the analogon of the calculation above for the case of mining Tritanium in a Retriever?
Mme, I value time according to it's function. Mining Trit in a Retriever would be this (for me at least) would be... Value of Veld / Time mined :) That would be my cost. Which is why I don't mine often unless all my orders are up to date, my production slots are full, my lab slots are full and now an extra step, my PI is "Optimal/cleaned etc.
I look at items like "face time" how much time I actually spend doing what it is that gets me the ISK. Clearly mining has a lot of face time, so does level 4 mission running, 0.0/W-Space ratting, and even trading has a decent amount of face time.
PI doesn't have much face time, I think I'm shooting long saying I'd spend 30 hours a month doing it, although setup takes some time, but that's kinda fun. After that the face time is minimal almost non-existent compared to most other EVE activities.
@Maria Yumeno I updated the link but not quick enough for you to post a reply. Check again.
Amarr for Life |
Maria Yumeno
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 18:35:00 -
[92]
Originally by: SencneS Edited by: SencneS on 08/07/2010 17:56:14 @Maria Yumeno I updated the link but not quick enough for you to post a reply. Check again.
I'll try again tomorrow, due to the mobile phone verification i haven't been able to get a google docs account so far.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 18:46:00 -
[93]
Originally by: Maria Yumeno
Originally by: SencneS Edited by: SencneS on 08/07/2010 17:56:14 @Maria Yumeno I updated the link but not quick enough for you to post a reply. Check again.
I'll try again tomorrow, due to the mobile phone verification i haven't been able to get a google docs account so far.
Weird.. I check again it's public and it's published. Probably google screwing around again I've had it where a buddy could see a dock but for me it was saying Temporary unavailable
I'll link it here on this page too - Link
Amarr for Life |
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 19:01:00 -
[94]
If only you knew how to properly value assets, ebank may be solvent. Anyone doing PI should use Wyke's sheet (or their own) instead. Link again: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ar_YTOcXpvb9dGFIdHJlb0VmYXBORWRrcXFkeHNjcWc&hl=en_GB#gid=10
I mean, sencnes thinks he can melt down T2 drones and get robotics and GS from them:
Quote: Personally I look forward to that day, because market lag happen and is still happening and I'm having a BLAST melting down T2 mods and drones that are selling cheaper then what I sell to Jita buy order the materials I get form melting them. EASY M-O-N-E-Y!
Quote: I've even melted down some T2 drones because of Robotics being priced enough to make that profitable"
You really, really do not want to base investment or production on his advice.
|
Maria Yumeno
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 19:07:00 -
[95]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Maria Yumeno
Originally by: SencneS Edited by: SencneS on 08/07/2010 17:56:14 @Maria Yumeno I updated the link but not quick enough for you to post a reply. Check again.
I'll try again tomorrow, due to the mobile phone verification i haven't been able to get a google docs account so far.
Weird.. I check again it's public and it's published. Probably google screwing around again I've had it where a buddy could see a dock but for me it was saying Temporary unavailable
I'll link it here on this page too - Link
Your calculations seem very optimistic. U are getting 22 extractors on each planet with a 5hr cycle time, then shipping it all between planets according to your spreadsheet. Ratio of planets here would be a problem, as would the pure amount of hauling involved would be pretty ridiculous. I'd give a realistic view as 300m a month (max) and that would be generous.
Nice speadsheet tho, i'd go with a more realistic calculation of 4000-4500 units per hr to start with and go from there. You'd also be looking at fitting 21 stuctures on planet at most, not considering gas giants.
Output would also be reduced as you'd be better putting you p1 production on the same planet as your extractors to reduce hauling and the 5th planet would purely support p2-p3 production. I wouldn;t be sure that a single planet would cope with imported p0 then changing to p1>p2 and finally p3 anyway.
isk per hr wise it's looking at at most 10m isk. It wouldn;t really be worth doing until robotics hit 40k p/u then some people may consider it.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 19:25:00 -
[96]
Edited by: SencneS on 08/07/2010 19:32:40
Originally by: Maria Yumeno Your calculations seem very optimistic. U are getting 22 extractors on each planet with a 5hr cycle time, then shipping it all between planets according to your spreadsheet. Ratio of planets here would be a problem, as would the pure amount of hauling involved would be pretty ridiculous. I'd give a realistic view as 300m a month (max) and that would be generous.
Nice speadsheet tho, i'd go with a more realistic calculation of 4000-4500 units per hr to start with and go from there. You'd also be looking at fitting 21 stuctures on planet at most, not considering gas giants.
Output would also be reduced as you'd be better putting you p1 production on the same planet as your extractors to reduce hauling and the 5th planet would purely support p2-p3 production. I wouldn;t be sure that a single planet would cope with imported p0 then changing to p1>p2 and finally p3 anyway.
isk per hr wise it's looking at at most 10m isk. It wouldn;t really be worth doing until robotics hit 40k p/u then some people may consider it.
Err no, not 22 extractors on 1 planet.. You can't extract everything for GS's on a single planet. It's using a binary planet setup, in which two planets are producing the end result but each is only producing one side of the chain, after a while you get a build up of extra P2 items which you move to the other side. You could do this for about 7 days at MAX production before you need to move P2s to the other planet.
The planets are Storm and Plasma. The Plasma planet produces enough Transmitter to not only feed itself but feed the other planet at the same time. The way I'd set this one up is I'd actually prime both planets with a small purchase of Water-Cooled CPUs and Transmitters. Put those on the planets that are not producing that item.
In the end it comes down to per planet.
1 Launch pad 1 Advance Processor (Guidance Systems) 3 Advance Processors (Producing the P2 items that planet can produce) 3 Basic Processors (Each one producing their P1 item)
That's only 8 Structures. Plasma Planet has 8+5 extractors = 21 total Structures Storm Planet has 4+5 extractors = 17 total Structures
I'd probably push more extractors on and fill em up of cause but this setup twice (total 4 planet) would produce 12 Guidance Systems an hour.
Edit:- Corrected some spelling. Actually it's a lot more obtainable with Elite CC, with this you need to break it up a little.
Amarr for Life |
Maria Yumeno
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 20:26:00 -
[97]
Originally by: SencneS Edited by: SencneS on 08/07/2010 19:32:40
Originally by: Maria Yumeno Your calculations seem very optimistic. U are getting 22 extractors on each planet with a 5hr cycle time, then shipping it all between planets according to your spreadsheet. Ratio of planets here would be a problem, as would the pure amount of hauling involved would be pretty ridiculous. I'd give a realistic view as 300m a month (max) and that would be generous.
Nice speadsheet tho, i'd go with a more realistic calculation of 4000-4500 units per hr to start with and go from there. You'd also be looking at fitting 21 stuctures on planet at most, not considering gas giants.
Output would also be reduced as you'd be better putting you p1 production on the same planet as your extractors to reduce hauling and the 5th planet would purely support p2-p3 production. I wouldn;t be sure that a single planet would cope with imported p0 then changing to p1>p2 and finally p3 anyway.
isk per hr wise it's looking at at most 10m isk. It wouldn;t really be worth doing until robotics hit 40k p/u then some people may consider it.
Err no, not 22 extractors on 1 planet.. You can't extract everything for GS's on a single planet. It's using a binary planet setup, in which two planets are producing the end result but each is only producing one side of the chain, after a while you get a build up of extra P2 items which you move to the other side. You could do this for about 7 days at MAX production before you need to move P2s to the other planet.
The planets are Storm and Plasma. The Plasma planet produces enough Transmitter to not only feed itself but feed the other planet at the same time. The way I'd set this one up is I'd actually prime both planets with a small purchase of Water-Cooled CPUs and Transmitters. Put those on the planets that are not producing that item.
In the end it comes down to per planet.
1 Launch pad 1 Advance Processor (Guidance Systems) 3 Advance Processors (Producing the P2 items that planet can produce) 3 Basic Processors (Each one producing their P1 item)
That's only 8 Structures. Plasma Planet has 8+5 extractors = 21 total Structures Storm Planet has 4+5 extractors = 17 total Structures
I'd probably push more extractors on and fill em up of cause but this setup twice (total 4 planet) would produce 12 Guidance Systems an hour.
Edit:- Corrected some spelling. Actually it's a lot more obtainable with Elite CC, with this you need to break it up a little.
It's late here but, ill go thru it again tomorrow when i have time.
so basically your spreadsheet is setup for 2 planets? Then is multiplied by four at the end?
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 20:41:00 -
[98]
Originally by: Maria Yumeno So basically your spreadsheet is setup for 2 planets? Then is multiplied by four at the end?
Not quiet, all 4 planets could produce GS's but they are paired planets. Plasma and Storm. Each planet produces one half of chain. Technically you could probably get away with using all 5 planets, Have Two Storm planets just producing Water-Cooled CPU's, Two Plasma just producing just Transmitters. Then have the 5th running the two together. But there really no need to do that as all four planets can be producing them.
The launch pad can only hold about 7 days of P2 items and leave enough room for incoming production, and Finished goods. So your touch/face time is run the small amount of extractors and once a week move some P2s. If you think outside the box a little there is a trick which I recently was shown that makes this very much more obtainable.
It's not a complex setup or requires very much logistics involved. It's just unconventional, which is why some people don't understand it.
Amarr for Life |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 21:04:00 -
[99]
Originally by: SencneS Edited by: SencneS on 08/07/2010 16:17:07
Originally by: mechtech This is the single stupidest MD post I have ever read, I hope to god you're drunk.
What, proper time calculation for any given function too much for you to understand or something?
It's pretty simple, this function would get me 600mil per month, how many hours would it take me to get that 600mil? 720. So per hour it's 835K. How many hours does it take for me to maintain that, 30 hours. 835,000*30 = 25.05mil.
Why you don't understand this is clear but why you choose to call it stupid is... meh whatever makes you feel more secure I guess.
here's a fun calculation to make:
value of guidance systems manufactured per hour, minus value of p2 components used per hour
that's your profit per hour for making guidance systems
what is it
|
Alpha Rhapisma
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 21:12:00 -
[100]
Originally by: Weaselior
Originally by: SencneS Edited by: SencneS on 08/07/2010 16:17:07
Originally by: mechtech This is the single stupidest MD post I have ever read, I hope to god you're drunk.
What, proper time calculation for any given function too much for you to understand or something?
It's pretty simple, this function would get me 600mil per month, how many hours would it take me to get that 600mil? 720. So per hour it's 835K. How many hours does it take for me to maintain that, 30 hours. 835,000*30 = 25.05mil.
Why you don't understand this is clear but why you choose to call it stupid is... meh whatever makes you feel more secure I guess.
here's a fun calculation to make:
value of guidance systems manufactured per hour, minus value of p2 components used per hour
that's your profit per hour for making guidance systems
what is it
Negative numbers are heresy, and thus negative profit can not exist. *giggles*
|
|
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 21:14:00 -
[101]
note: the profits generated from the extra step of converting (sellable) p2s into guidance systems should be looked at seperately, ignoring that step and focusing only on very beginning to very end is wrong
for example, under ebank accounting, if you mined the minerals yourself and then made a battleship that sells for less than you could sell the minerals, making that battleship was profitable
of course, it wasn't: the mining was profitable, making the battleship was a loss
SencneS is trying to use the profit generated by making the p2 components to cover up the important thing: that making guidance systems is a loss ergo nobody will do it
to put his argument in perspective, he would argue that if I work all day and make $200, and then light a cigar with a hundred dollar bill, I made $100 by lighting the cigar with the hundred dollar bill, not lost $100
|
Priscilla Fancypants
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 21:14:00 -
[102]
Originally by: Weaselior
Originally by: SencneS Edited by: SencneS on 08/07/2010 16:17:07
Originally by: mechtech This is the single stupidest MD post I have ever read, I hope to god you're drunk.
What, proper time calculation for any given function too much for you to understand or something?
It's pretty simple, this function would get me 600mil per month, how many hours would it take me to get that 600mil? 720. So per hour it's 835K. How many hours does it take for me to maintain that, 30 hours. 835,000*30 = 25.05mil.
Why you don't understand this is clear but why you choose to call it stupid is... meh whatever makes you feel more secure I guess.
here's a fun calculation to make:
value of guidance systems manufactured per hour, minus value of p2 components used per hour
that's your profit per hour for making guidance systems
what is it
|
RAW23
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 21:17:00 -
[103]
Originally by: SencneS
835,000*30 = 25.05mil.
Why you don't understand this is clear but why you choose to call it stupid is... meh whatever makes you feel more secure I guess.
I can't for the life of me work out why you are multiplying these two numbers together. One represents your total (active and passive)monthly earnings presented in an isk per hour form. The other is your number of active hours (although since you said in an earlier post that this was 1 hour every 2 days, shouldn't that figure be 15 rather than 30?). Why are they together? Please explain slowly so I can follow what you think you are doing here.
|
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 21:19:00 -
[104]
Originally by: pmchem If only you knew how to properly value assets, ebank may be solvent. Anyone doing PI should use Wyke's sheet (or their own) instead. Link again: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ar_YTOcXpvb9dGFIdHJlb0VmYXBORWRrcXFkeHNjcWc&hl=en_GB#gid=10
I mean, sencnes thinks he can melt down T2 drones and get robotics and GS from them:
Quote: Personally I look forward to that day, because market lag happen and is still happening and I'm having a BLAST melting down T2 mods and drones that are selling cheaper then what I sell to Jita buy order the materials I get form melting them. EASY M-O-N-E-Y!
Quote: I've even melted down some T2 drones because of Robotics being priced enough to make that profitable"
You really, really do not want to base investment or production on his advice.
lawl does SencneS know literally anything about eve at all
|
Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics K162
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 21:57:00 -
[105]
Edited by: Vilgan Mazran on 08/07/2010 21:58:14 Doesn't seem that hard.
4 BIF is best case for high sec. lets throw 2 AIFs in there as well.
10 P2/hour/planet or 50 P2/hour/char aka 7.5 P3/hour/char (treating AIF to make the P3 from p2 as free)
Assuming P3 at 20k, that is 150k/hour/character. Or 108 mil per month per character assuming they are willing to double click extractors every single bloody day to make it. Not to mention hauling to make the P2/P3 and then hauling to get it to jita.
I don't see how you can possibly suggest GS hitting 20k is a dream. 108/month is like the worst possible income in eve. Even macros wouldn't touch that with a 10 foot pole considering that is makeable in 2-4 days macro mining or in 4-6 hours macro ratting.
Sure you can make more in 0.0 or w-space, but you can also make a ton more isk in those places too. 200mil isk is 3 hours of 0.0 anoms or 1 hour of sleepers in w-space.
|
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 22:03:00 -
[106]
Originally by: RAW23
This isn't quite true. People do still make ships when they are effectively losing money by adding in a production stage when they should just be selling their raw minerals. And it is plausible that quite a few people will approach PI just in terms of looking at what they can get for their final product, without looking at whether intermediate stages add or subtract value. The real question is, will enough people do this to have an effect on prices? If lots of non-trader types who abhor spreadsheets get involved in PI, as CCP seems to be hoping, the answer may well be yes.
Yeah, but there the margin lost is pretty small and easy to miss without spreadsheeting it out. With this, you're losing something like half your money: you don't need a spreadsheet to pick up on that.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 22:04:00 -
[107]
Originally by: RAW23
I can't for the life of me work out why you are multiplying these two numbers together. One represents your total (active and passive)monthly earnings presented in an isk per hour form. The other is your number of active hours (although since you said in an earlier post that this was 1 hour every 2 days, shouldn't that figure be 15 rather than 30?). Why are they together? Please explain slowly so I can follow what you think you are doing here.
Yeah but 30 hours seems more realistic anyway. But that's still pretty reasonable profit for the effort. If you 1 hour a day, that includes all the extractor cycles you have to start, and once every couple of days doing a little logistics. Which is why it's probably best to go with a 5 Planet setup explained above. Have four planets pump out the P1 items. On the 5th planet convert them to P2 and P3.
I guess it's just personal preference on how I judge value of time for production job. I actually can't think of any other way to value time of production jobs.
Amount made over a given time frame / the given time frame = Value of time. Value of time * active hours doing that = The cost of the amount made over.
We're talking about something that kinda runs itself with very little startup cost and no ISK cost after setup apart from import/export. Which over a month you'd be unlucky if that was more then a couple of mil.
Why? How would you value your time for PI?
Amarr for Life |
Janice Polito
Tech 3 Hotsauce Limited
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 22:18:00 -
[108]
Originally by: SencneS
You've got looking at things from the wrong direction down to a science.
|
WahWahWeeWoo
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 22:42:00 -
[109]
So clearly... from the numbers I've read here from goons, guidance systems are stocked in huge quantities. Which means their liquidity of value is questionable at best. I think I'm going to start selling 70% of my stock(5m) at +10% market simply because I'll have more liquid isk to multiply on larger margins. Opportunity costs + deflation caused by all this speculation is ripening other avenues.
|
Suicida1
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 22:49:00 -
[110]
Originally by: SencneS
Why? How would you value your time for PI?
Time_spent_talking_about_PI + time_spent_spinning_plannet + time_spent_hauling + time_spent_adjusting_orders + time_spent_clicking * disgust_from_realising_that_you_are_wasting_your_game_time_doing_sometning_pathetic + opportunity_cost_of_not_being_able_ to_go_somewhere_else_because_i_have_to_stick_around_to_haul_stuff
..which all result in a couple of hundred millions per month that could be done in hours by doing somethin else
something like that :)
|
|
Maria Yumeno
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 01:09:00 -
[111]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Maria Yumeno So basically your spreadsheet is setup for 2 planets? Then is multiplied by four at the end?
Not quiet, all 4 planets could produce GS's but they are paired planets. Plasma and Storm. Each planet produces one half of chain. Technically you could probably get away with using all 5 planets, Have Two Storm planets just producing Water-Cooled CPU's, Two Plasma just producing just Transmitters. Then have the 5th running the two together. But there really no need to do that as all four planets can be producing them.
The launch pad can only hold about 7 days of P2 items and leave enough room for incoming production, and Finished goods. So your touch/face time is run the small amount of extractors and once a week move some P2s. If you think outside the box a little there is a trick which I recently was shown that makes this very much more obtainable.
It's not a complex setup or requires very much logistics involved. It's just unconventional, which is why some people don't understand it.
EDIT:- Actually come to think of it, it's probably best to have maximum capacity and build GS's on the 5 planet.
Have 2 Plasma's and 2 Storms producing their 2 each P2 items. This will allow you to really build up an inventory, run it for a week then go to each one, pick up the P2 items then dump em on the 5th planet for turning into GS's.
This also has a better effect of the "stop gap" production just in case the P2 are selling better.
What i meant was your spreadsheet seemed to be showing around 23 extractors + an unknown amount of factories being worth 150m. Then you multiplied by 4x planets.
You changed your calculations around now and so it looks a little more realistic, although still, a harvest rate of 5100 per hour seems a little optimistic. i have found very few planets where i can extract more than 2300 every 30mins, although it is possible. Also remember your p1 factories will be chewing through 6000 units per hour so the ratio of extractors to basic factories will be close to 1-1.
The physical set-up of your planets shouldn't matter too much, so long as your numbers are correct. How u setup your planets will just change the amount of logistics that you need to do. I agree that it is best to do as much as possible on a single planet.
|
Kane Portnoy
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 07:54:00 -
[112]
what is about the transmitter prices? seemed that they rise also a bit? dunno the math, but i think they have to increase like guidance systems? as they are need for them?
|
Dr Nefarius
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 08:51:00 -
[113]
Originally by: Kane Portnoy what is about the transmitter prices? seemed that they rise also a bit? dunno the math, but i think they have to increase like guidance systems? as they are need for them?
They are not likely to be in for a major readjustment up because of the increasing GS prices. You don't use transmitters to manufacure GS. Why? Becuase you do not manufacure GS with it's current market value.
The value of transmitters is currently set from it's role as a t2 component, and as a component in other P3:s(Hazmat Detection Systems, High-Tech Transmitter) that are worth a lot more then GS.
That said, it's not impossible for it to rise as with many other P2:s, but it doesn't seem to be anything special about it.
|
Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 11:17:00 -
[114]
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: weaselior
SencneS is trying to use the profit generated by making the p2 components to cover up the important thing: that making guidance systems is a loss ergo nobody will do it
This isn't quite true. People do still make ships when they are effectively losing money by adding in a production stage when they should just be selling their raw minerals. And it is plausible that quite a few people will approach PI just in terms of looking at what they can get for their final product, without looking at whether intermediate stages add or subtract value. The real question is, will enough people do this to have an effect on prices? If lots of non-trader types who abhor spreadsheets get involved in PI, as CCP seems to be hoping, the answer may well be yes.
This is a very valid point, and judging from the amount of P0 traded, quite a lot of PI producers just haven't run any numbers. That was one of my main motivations for making my spreadsheet public, the insanity was driving me up the wall.
|
RAW23
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 11:25:00 -
[115]
Originally by: SencneS
I guess it's just personal preference on how I judge value of time for production job. I actually can't think of any other way to value time of production jobs.
[A]Amount made over a given time frame / the given time frame = Value of time. [B]Value of time * active hours doing that = The cost of the amount made over.
The big problem here is that value of time (t1) in equation A is not really the same value as value of time (t2) in equation B. Either would be fine by itself to give you a certain value but mixing them together gives some very strange results.
Lets assume that your formula is correct. Then let's look at two further hypothetical examples. In example 1 the 600mil only takes 1 active hour per month. In example 2 the 600mil takes 100 active hours. Now, according to your formula, if it only takes 1 active hour to make the 600mil, then the cost of your time = 890k/hour. If it takes 100 hours, though, you get the result that the cost of your time is 890mil! This clearly makes no sense, as your formula seems to suggest that the more you make per hour of activity, the less valuable your time is!
Quote:
Why? How would you value your time for PI?
Isk made / active hours. So, in this case simply 600/30 = 20mil/hour. Very, very simple.
|
Tolis Irithel
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 11:39:00 -
[116]
Edited by: Tolis Irithel on 09/07/2010 11:39:07
Quote: Isk made / active hours.
Quote: Amount made over a given time frame / the given time frame = Value of time.
Different people have cited this as a method of assessing "value of time". This isn't correct - what this is valuing is "ISK generated over active time", or active hourly revenue.
The correct "value of time" should be MAX(potential ISK made/active hours), out of your set of available ISK-generating activities. How you define active hours will also affect this calculation, as if you're doing something else at the same time, you'll need to compare pairs of activities to accurately value time (on the assumption that you can mission/mine/haul/whatever while running PI on same character with minimal efficiency loss.)
This provides the most useful comparison, in that it allows you to tell whether adding PI to a portfolio of activities provides a higher MAX(potential ISK made/active hours) value than leaving it out.
|
RAW23
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 11:51:00 -
[117]
Edited by: RAW23 on 09/07/2010 11:51:37
Originally by: Tolis Irithel Edited by: Tolis Irithel on 09/07/2010 11:39:07
Quote: Isk made / active hours.
Quote: Amount made over a given time frame / the given time frame = Value of time.
Different people have cited this as a method of assessing "value of time". This isn't correct - what this is valuing is "ISK generated over active time", or active hourly revenue.
The correct "value of time" should be MAX(potential ISK made/active hours), out of your set of available ISK-generating activities. How you define active hours will also affect this calculation, as if you're doing something else at the same time, you'll need to compare pairs of activities to accurately value time (on the assumption that you can mission/mine/haul/whatever while running PI on same character with minimal efficiency loss.)
This provides the most useful comparison, in that it allows you to tell whether adding PI to a portfolio of activities provides a higher MAX(potential ISK made/active hours) value than leaving it out.
Fair enough but you are talking about an absolute(ish) value of time, here, rather than the value of my time as I currently spend it. Your value will be a theoretical value that will apply to all players with identical skillsets and resource bases rather than a measurement of actual hourly earnings. Of course, for comparative purposes each person should compare the actual to the theoretical potential value to determine whether what they are actually doing is the best thing for them to do. But I wouldn't go so far as to say the one value is the "correct value" of time, whilst the other is not. If I work in a shop for 10 pounds an hour, I could certainly tell myself that my time is worth more than this. But I can equally legitimately say that my time is worth exactly what I in fact get in exchange for it.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 14:28:00 -
[118]
Edited by: SencneS on 09/07/2010 14:31:19
Originally by: RAW23 Lets assume that your formula is correct. Then let's look at two further hypothetical examples. In example 1 the 600mil only takes 1 active hour per month. In example 2 the 600mil takes 100 active hours. Now, according to your formula, if it only takes 1 active hour to make the 600mil, then the cost of your time = 890k. If it takes 100 hours, though, you get the result that the cost of your time is 890mil! This clearly makes no sense, as your formula seems to suggest that the more you make per hour of activity, the less valuable your time is!
First off you're a little off on your calculation.
Using your numbers = 1hour = 890K , 100 * 890,000 = 89,000,000 ISK (89mil) not 890mil.
Here is how I'd do it if it was 100hours of PI. 600mil / 720 = 833,000 ISK per hour
833,000 * 100 = 83,300,000 ISK (83.3mil)
This makes it IMPOSSIBLE for me to have more active time value then the actual ISK I've earned in the same time frame. If I only earned 10mil in 720 hours the formula would be.
10mil / 720 = 13,888.89 ISK per hour. If in a month I used 100 hours, 13,888.89 * 100 = 1,388,889 ISK You see :) Even if it took all 720 hours. 13,888,98 * 720 = 10,000,000.90
Which is how I calculate mining as it's 100% face time/active time Any ISK I near has a extremely low ISK/hour ratio.
Secondly if at any point my face time was actually more then the time it took to perform that function for example.... I actually can't think of any because if I'm activing doing it, it's included in the formula to start with. But lets assume something like actual login time.
Mining for example 10 mil a day would be
10,000,000 / 24 = 416,666.67 isk an hour
However I sat afk out at a belt not mining staring at the screen for 48 hours.
416,666.67 * 48 = 20,000,000.16 ISK face time cost.
Then why would I be doing it in the first place if it cost more "face time" then actual profit? I wouldn't I wouldn't sit there pretending to mine for 48 hours and only turn on the lasers for 23 lol If I did that's a complete waste of time and I deserve to record the loss.
But like I said, actually doing this would never happen. Besides I consider falling asleep at the screen -NON-Face time :)
Amarr for Life |
Ilarra
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 15:09:00 -
[119]
Edited by: Ilarra on 09/07/2010 15:11:28
Originally by: SencneS Edited by: SencneS on 09/07/2010 14:31:19
Originally by: RAW23 Lets assume that your formula is correct. Then let's look at two further hypothetical examples. In example 1 the 600mil only takes 1 active hour per month. In example 2 the 600mil takes 100 active hours. Now, according to your formula, if it only takes 1 active hour to make the 600mil, then the cost of your time = 890k. If it takes 100 hours, though, you get the result that the cost of your time is 890mil! This clearly makes no sense, as your formula seems to suggest that the more you make per hour of activity, the less valuable your time is!
First off you're a little off on your calculation.
Using your numbers = 1hour = 890K , 100 * 890,000 = 89,000,000 ISK (89mil) not 890mil.
Here is how I'd do it if it was 100hours of PI. 600mil / 720 = 833,000 ISK per hour
833,000 * 100 = 83,300,000 ISK (83.3mil)
This makes it IMPOSSIBLE for me to have more active time value then the actual ISK I've earned in the same time frame. If I only earned 10mil in 720 hours the formula would be.
10mil / 720 = 13,888.89 ISK per hour. If in a month I used 100 hours, 13,888.89 * 100 = 1,388,889 ISK You see :) Even if it took all 720 hours. 13,888,98 * 720 = 10,000,000.90
Which is how I calculate mining as it's 100% face time/active time Any ISK I near has a extremely low ISK/hour ratio.
Secondly if at any point my face time was actually more then the time it took to perform that function for example.... I actually can't think of any because if I'm activing doing it, it's included in the formula to start with. But lets assume something like actual login time.
Mining for example 10 mil a day would be
10,000,000 / 24 = 416,666.67 isk an hour
However I sat afk out at a belt not mining staring at the screen for 48 hours.
416,666.67 * 48 = 20,000,000.16 ISK face time cost.
Then why would I be doing it in the first place if it cost more "face time" then actual profit? I wouldn't I wouldn't sit there pretending to mine for 48 hours and only turn on the lasers for 23 lol If I did that's a complete waste of time and I deserve to record the loss.
But like I said, actually doing this would never happen. Besides I consider falling asleep at the screen -NON-Face time :)
You are measuring the value of your time by the amount of passive income you are earning due to PI, when in reality, the passive income (the 720 hours in a month) is meaningless because it requires active work. That is the equivalent of me measuring the time value of an activity against the value of the datacores my research alts are earning in the time it takes me to perform the activity.
You should measure the value of your active time against other activities you could be doing in the same active time, such as missioning or mining. If you earn more from 10 active hours of PI than you do from 10 active hours of missioning/ratting/exploration/playing the market/mining, then maybe that's something (hint: you don't). Measuring your time against your passive income per month is a meaningless number, though.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 15:30:00 -
[120]
I guess I don't understand what part of "This is how I personally measure my value time per activity" people are not understanding... Is this not personal preference how I choose to value my time? Here is my time valuation in a nutshell.. Any activity I perform get this calculation...
Value of ISK / Amount of "real time" it took to get that ISK = value of ISK per hour.
Active time actually doing the functions require to make that ISK * Value of ISK per hour = My time cost.
I do this for every function.
PI would have it's own value. Mining has it's own value. Missioning has it's own value. Manufacturing has it's own value, this is where this idea comes from. I only spend 5 minutes buying the materials, 30 minutes hauling it, 5 minutes installing the one week long jobs. In the end my profit can be say 350mil. So my per hour is about 2mil, that's how much my time cost me. So my profit is really 348mil. Marketing has a value but that's harder to gage so I put it at 5mil per hour, otherwise I'm performing an CRAP LOAD of calculations.
This allows me to pretty much determine how and where I should spend my time if I don't feel like doing one thing. Lets say all my slots are used up. But I feel like playing the game for another hour... What do I do? Marketing, missioning, mining... I'll do Missioning because my market is up to date..
Why I'm getting lectured on how to personally value my time is astonishing...
Amarr for Life |
|
mental maverick
Duty. Duty. Private Security
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 16:12:00 -
[121]
Originally by: SencneS Why I'm getting lectured on how to personally value my time is astonishing...
Because you are using it as argument in a discussion about the profitability of PI and whether it is a viable income source compared to other proffessions, based on ACTIVE time spent setting it up and maintaining it.
You don't see me using some ****ed up argument about my time spent pvping and calculating profitability on that. Then using some formula based on that and my personal preference of pvping in an attempt to estimate the tendency of ppl doing PI or not at current product value.
I really, REALLY, hope you are trolling because the level of stupidity in your posts and the amount of posting is starting to resemble the forum version of a bad case of diarrhea.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 16:19:00 -
[122]
Originally by: mental maverick Because you are using it as argument in a discussion about the profitability of PI and whether it is a viable income source compared to other proffessions, based on ACTIVE time spent setting it up and maintaining it.
err no, someone proclaimed I value my time as "free" I mealy said no it has cost, and this is how it costs..
So nice try but you're wrong. It wasn't used in any way about profitability of PI. It's was mentioned because someone said my time was free..
Amarr for Life |
Dr Oktober
Analogue Limited Engineering
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 16:31:00 -
[123]
So in other words, yes you did use it an argument.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 16:44:00 -
[124]
Originally by: Dr Oktober So in other words, yes you did use it an argument.
That would only be correct if I had said - "Everyone should be using this forumla to calculate their PI profitability." Which I have never said. And I wouldn't be so stupid as to say "Everyone is valuing their time in PI." Because I know some people value their time as "Free".
What you and others are apprently trying to do is shove words into my mouth, in which I will happy point to the fact that the whole time I'm saying "If I wanted to..." or "Here is how I would personally...". Which is something you and the few posters above are missing..
The PI Profitability is just that, PI Profitability before the "Value of time" is even included, why? Because everyone values their own personal time differently. What they personally have to determine is --> IF <-- they where looking at PI, what is the BASE (Which I've given) and then take out their very own time cost..
So you can stop trying to shove words into my mouth they don't fit.
Amarr for Life |
RAW23
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 16:52:00 -
[125]
Edited by: RAW23 on 09/07/2010 16:52:50 Edited my previous post to correct the typo.
But, that aside, your formula still has it that the cost of your time is lower the more you make per active hour.
As to it being a personal approach, that doesn't protect it from charges of not making sense. People are just pointing out to you that if you choose to value your time in this way then you choose to value your time irrationally.
|
Dr Oktober
Analogue Limited Engineering
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 16:55:00 -
[126]
Me? first time I've posted in this thread an I'm not trying to shove anything in anyone's mouth.
Just saying that your statement of not using the argument of your price/time is patently false. You did use it in an argument, in your own defence.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 17:05:00 -
[127]
Originally by: RAW23 But, that aside, your formula still has it that the cost of your time is lower the more you make per active hour.
As to it being a personal approach, that doesn't protect it from charges of not making sense. People are just pointing out to you that if you choose to value your time in this way then you choose to value your time irrationally.
I don't consider it irrational, I'm more of a manufacturer at heart.. Where ISK/Hour/Slot is very much an accepted calculation to determine of a BPO's "Value" in production. It certainly helped me determine which missile I should manufacture first when I ran that 200+ item munition business.
Applying that same concept to time for everything else is hardly irrational. Manufactures look at "Overall sale/profit (Depends on who you are) of the manufactured item" / Total time it takes to make = ISK/Hour/Slot. That's how much that BPO is worth per hour in production. So taking that same concept and applying it to "Personal Time" is as valid as any other personal time valuation method.. How you can call it irrational is a bit of a stretch. RAW, Come on dude we know each other better then this..
Amarr for Life |
mental maverick
Duty. Duty. Private Security
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 17:30:00 -
[128]
Originally by: SencneS So you can stop trying to shove words into my mouth they don't fit.
I don't know about that seeing as it does look more than big enough...
Cba to quote all the stupid stuff you've posted in this, and other threads on the same topic, but it started with you making the statement "20k for GSs, in your dreams!"
At which point it was explained to you that 20k is probably only half way to its true value, with a slight disregard for stockpiles, considering the effort required to produce them.
This is when you post your setup as to how you would do it and the amount of active time required to maintain said setup. Turns out you made about 25 mil per active h according to your estimates, which I thought were a bit optimistic but ok. 25 mil per active h is still not very good compared to other professions in EVE, which was subsequently explained to you.
And que your flawed formula for valuing time, as an argument, in extent, defending your "20k GSs, in your dreams!" statement.
And now I really am getting worried I'm being trolled, cause this is getting quite ridiculous tbh...
|
RAW23
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 17:33:00 -
[129]
Edited by: RAW23 on 09/07/2010 17:33:58
Originally by: SencneS How you can call it irrational is a bit of a stretch. RAW, Come on dude we know each other better then this..
I've got to be honest, it's because I have been reading and responding to your posts for a while now that I don't hesitate to call some of your views irrational.
That's not to say I don't appreciate some of your posting, especially concerning information about ebank. It's just your reasoning I find consistently problematic.
|
Darthion Illys
Amarr Tyrans d'Or Tyrans d'0r
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 17:35:00 -
[130]
Edited by: Darthion Illys on 09/07/2010 17:35:37 Guidance Systems are now up to 14.8k/u, btw.
What that means, is that you -should- have bought it at 7k/u, where/when SencneS said you shouldn't.
Update - Typos and stuff.
|
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:04:00 -
[131]
Its still not to late to enter cuz its going to 45k-60k/pu and that's the minimum.Nobody that is making it will bother selling it at produce price. knowledge is power |
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:16:00 -
[132]
Originally by: mental maverick stuff
The problem is you're mixing two conversations into one.
The last 2-3 pages have been mostly about how I value and calculate my own personal time. It's actually been pretty detrailing all things considered.
None the less, the whole "Value of time" started back on page 3 post 67 As you can see I replied to Kieselguhr Kid who said and I quote
Originally by: Kieselguhr Kid "It doesn't matter what it costs to produce if you buy the items, because my time is free"
That's actually the single point in which the discussion has turned into TWO different points. On post 71, Kieselguhr Kid actually said "you are correct; using this calculation, your time is not free." It actually tried to go a different route again at that point, when he introduced the "I'm making P3 instead of selling the more profitable P2" people then commented on how onlu 900K per hour is so little. The discussion actually went on this line not even really mentioning Guidance Systems just how time little 900K is all the way till I attempted to bring the discussion back to Guidance Systems on post 87 Which didn't even mention Time value and the sheet I had created at the time didn't even include any concept of it.
However, this doesn't stop people harping on how I value time. Maria Yumeno and I have been trying to keep the thread about Guidance System actually discussing setups and logistics chains for Planets to make Guidance Systems the most optimal way. The whole time not even mentioning anything to do with the value of time.
Post 99, yet again another Goon talking about profitability but it's more of a troll on how the P2s are worth more, even though that "tertiary" discussion ended 28 posts before hand, goons in their sheep ways posted for 5 posts about it, I simple ignored them.
Then RAW comes in fires up a question about how I value time, in his post he doesn't even mention anything to do with PI, just literally wants to know why I value my time that way. The thread is detailed again, despite almost a page of Maria Yumeno and I talking about Guidance Systems planets and their optimal setups. Actually from that point PI is not even the focus of discussion it's just about how time is valued.
Now there is a real LOOSE connection to PI, but it's like everyone talking hypothetically about how time should be calculated and using the original number I spat out about how profitable Guidance Systems are. No where is it really stated that value of time was included as part of PI profitability. That's actually kinda dangerous because people do value their time differently.
I don't know how you value you time, I really don't care so I'm not going to tell you how you should value you time. What I can tell you is, if you build Guidance Systems and when you go to sell them here is what you could make. I'm always careful to not assume anyone's value of time. In fact the PI Profitability is totally missing value of time, how many clicks it would it take, how much hauling, how much market activity.
You can think Kieselguhr Kid for derailing the thread the first time, RAW23 for derailing it the second, but I have to tell ya, You're also detrailing it now. Of cause I accept full responsibility for assisting in the detailing by continuing to reply to yours, RAW's and anyone who questions how I value my time personally.
Amarr for Life |
Sol Fallstaff
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:26:00 -
[133]
Edited by: Sol Fallstaff on 09/07/2010 18:26:53 Why would anyone want to make it at the price its currently at ?, if you did need some for production you'd be better off using the raw materials to build another item in the same tier which is selling for a decent price and buying the Guidance Systems you need.. least this way you'll get a lot more of them than you would by making them
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:32:00 -
[134]
Edited by: SencneS on 09/07/2010 18:32:53
Originally by: Sol Fallstaff Why would anyone want to make it at the price its currently at ?, if you did need some for production you'd be better off using the raw materials to build another item in the same tier which is selling for a decent price and buying the Guidance Systems you need.. least this way you'll get a lot more of them than you would by making them
You wouldn't, there is plenty of other things that are better. But if you wanted to, you'd have to do what I did and find out how much it'll make a month. I pointed this out long ago, but as usually the real useful information is lose in a sea of trolls.
This is why I suggested if you where going to make these you should use a supply chain with a stop-gap. Like a Production planet in which you build the P1/P2 then P3 later. You never know at any time the Goons dreams could come true and these thing are worth 100K a piece in which you could easily switch to making these thing. But until that point the best thing would be literally use stop-gap so the P2s are not automatically fed into the Advance Processor.
That's what I've kinda recommended, but the whole point is. If someone WAS to make them now, how much profit could they get. Well the sheet I created is now broken because I played with it too much so don't use that. Use your own calculation.
Amarr for Life |
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:42:00 -
[135]
Originally by: SencneS You never know at any time the Goons dreams could come true
I would just like to point out, I am not a goon, or the alt of a goon.
Just someone who looked at the market and wondered what the hell was going on.
|
Kieselguhr Kid
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:46:00 -
[136]
Originally by: SencneS
However, this doesn't stop people harping on how I value time. Maria Yumeno and I have been trying to keep the thread about Guidance System actually discussing setups and logistics chains for Planets to make Guidance Systems the most optimal way.
How to make GS in the most optimal way:
1)buy them from the market for anything under 44k a unit rather than lose money producing them
you're welcome
|
Phoebe Halliwel
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:48:00 -
[137]
SencneS, if those posts were about how you value your time; either assert that and walk away or engage in a dialogue and expect criticism, you don't have to take criticisms personally.
People who post "their formula" for activity tend to imply theirs is either the best way, or optimal, then rationalise why or ask for feedback. Problem seems to be here, other people comment to you that yours appears irrational, and you are unwilling to accept it except by stating it's personal preference, then going into more detail to explain your rationale. There's nothing to debate then is there? If you want to debate it, take the criticism on board, if not just stop posting to justify yourself. No one else has really had opportunity to post their formula for calculating PI profitability in terms of time spent active/inactive because the discussion is almost a monologue from you.
I've used a few irrational formulas myself on occasion, others probably do, but it's not worth posting them on the eve-o forums, as they wont get any constructive feedback and I'm not interested in any in the first place. If it works for me that's all I need. Who cares what other people think, do you really need their approval either way? Can't really use a personal standard to debunk someone else's argument.... if it makes no sense to anyone else or they refuse to accept it's validity.
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:55:00 -
[138]
Originally by: SencneS
You can thank Kieselguhr Kid for derailing the thread the first time, RAW23 for derailing it the second
Can I please get an honorable mention for my top of page 2 post? Come on man.
Your isk/hour estimate is shortsighted because you fail to take into account the real value of the intermediates you produce -- and own. Say it's a 2 step process, state 1-->2-->3. You are calculating profits for the process "1-->3". But it's possible to calculate profits for "1-->2" and "2-->3". When "2-->3" is negative, you really should just stop at "1-->2" unless you want to make profits disappear (like ebank did with its investors' isk).
This has been stated about 5 different ways but you seem to refuse to come to terms with it.
|
Time2Whine
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:59:00 -
[139]
Originally by: SencneS
You can thank Kieselguhr Kid for derailing the thread the first time, RAW23 for derailing it the second
This thread would be doing a lot better if you gave up trying to save face in it... just sayin'...
|
mental maverick
Duty. Duty. Private Security
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 19:27:00 -
[140]
As I said before, I cba to cross reference everything you posted SencneS as my only means of internet is currently my phone and its a pita to do.
But pls, for the love of god man, read your posts again on pages 2 and 3. I get the feeling you only see the parts of your, and others, posts that is of benefit to you in your argument.
Way before anybody was questioning your way of valuing time you clearly stated that you thought 20k GSs wasn't a possibility and proceeded to use your own planet setup to back it up.
How is it that you don't see this? I'm really at a loss here as to how to explain the flaws in your argument. It's like your deaf to anything else but your own voice, and even then you only hear what you want to hear.
|
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 19:41:00 -
[141]
Originally by: Phoebe Halliwel SencneS, if those posts were about how you value your time; either assert that and walk away or engage in a dialogue and expect criticism, you don't have to take criticisms personally.
People who post "their formula" for activity tend to imply theirs is either the best way, or optimal, then rationalise why or ask for feedback. Problem seems to be here, other people comment to you that yours appears irrational, and you are unwilling to accept it except by stating it's personal preference, then going into more detail to explain your rationale. There's nothing to debate then is there? If you want to debate it, take the criticism on board, if not just stop posting to justify yourself. No one else has really had opportunity to post their formula for calculating PI profitability in terms of time spent active/inactive because the discussion is almost a monologue from you.
I've used a few irrational formulas myself on occasion, others probably do, but it's not worth posting them on the eve-o forums, as they wont get any constructive feedback and I'm not interested in any in the first place. If it works for me that's all I need. Who cares what other people think, do you really need their approval either way? Can't really use a personal standard to debunk someone else's argument.... if it makes no sense to anyone else or they refuse to accept it's validity.
That wasn't really the case though, I didn't say "Here this is the best formula", it was simply posted to as a rebuttal to someone believing I value my time free. One, I might add, that I do put a cost on my time. I even asked how other people value their time. Go look for yourself if you don't believe its in there. Only a couple replied. Now you'll probably roll your eyes at this, but in case you missed it, apart from Mme and RAW literally who had legitimate questions as to why, the rest of the posts where nothing but trolls and I actually ignored almost all of them. You want me to ignore those people who are legitimately interested in why I do that? WHY being the key here. RAW even said "I'm Struggling to work out why you put these two numbers together..." What you're suggesting is I just ignore that, that's kinda rude don't you think?
Despite what you're suggesting I have read what others suggest, or even pointed out why they think my calculations are incorrect. And sure I've tried to justify one of two. Why? Because I don't think they quiet understand where I'm coming from. Calling it irrational really rubbed me the wrong way because the whole "He is doing something irrational" is a an odd argument. What may seem irrational to someone maybe completely rational to them. I can tell from your post you would understand that.
What I don't understand is why you choose to post when you clearly didn't read the whole subsection of posts on this thread about it. Not the first time you've chosen to intellectuality troll me when you didn't read the thread. You might want to do that next time.
Amarr for Life |
Phoebe Halliwel
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 20:19:00 -
[142]
Originally by: SencneS What may seem irrational to someone maybe completely rational to them. I can tell from your post you would understand that.
I do, just don't know if there's much point trying to convince others in a public setting, when their opinion is irrelevant anyway (depending on how needy you are for their approval).
Originally by: SencneS What I don't understand is why you choose to post when you clearly didn't read the whole subsection of posts on this thread about it. Not the first time you've chosen to intellectuality troll me when you didn't read the thread. You might want to do that next time.
I'm not reading that drivel again!
I don't understand why you post either, so let's leave it at that
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 20:22:00 -
[143]
Edited by: SencneS on 09/07/2010 20:23:11
Originally by: Phoebe Halliwel
Originally by: SencneS What may seem irrational to someone maybe completely rational to them. I can tell from your post you would understand that.
I do, just don't know if there's much point trying to convince others in a public setting, when their opinion is irrelevant anyway (depending on how needy you are for their approval).
Originally by: SencneS What I don't understand is why you choose to post when you clearly didn't read the whole subsection of posts on this thread about it. Not the first time you've chosen to intellectuality troll me when you didn't read the thread. You might want to do that next time.
I'm not reading that drivel again!
I don't understand why you post either, so let's leave it at that
Sounds reasonable to me, I bid you a good day good lady.
Edit:- Changed Sex..
Amarr for Life |
J'J'J'Jita
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 14:58:00 -
[144]
GS hanging out at 12.2/14.1, a nice solid "buy" given the discussion in this thread.
|
Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus IT Alliance
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 16:15:00 -
[145]
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 16:26:23
Right now, going by jita buy prices for the mats (Water-cooled CPU: 2681 and Transmitter: 2850) to make 1 GS, it would cost 18,436 isk (2681*3.33+2850*3.33) So, it's still better to just sell the t2 mats and not make the GS. However, as the GS are being consumed at about 10m / month, even the stockpiles won't be able to forestall that demand and the price for GS will increase again.
Mind you, this analysis of the t2s that make GS is incorrect anyways, as nobody is actually using them to produce GS, therefore, there is much less demand for these 2 t2 items, and therefore their prices are as low as they are right now. Once it gets to a point that Water-cooled CPUs and Transmitters are actually used in production of GS, their consumption will jump to atleast 33.3m units per month each. At that point their price will also increase in similar fashion to GS price. So, taken with a grain of salt, it may be profitable to buy those t2 items now as well, at their current prices.
This may also be a good time to stock up on some t2 drones, because each one takes 1-4 (large drones 4, medium 2, small 1) to manufacture.
Also, each Recursive Computing Module (t4) takes 6 GS to make, and this t4 is used in about half of all POS modules - a demand previously not accounted for in the 10m / month due to drone manufacturing alone as was previously the sole demand for GS.
|
Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus IT Alliance
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 16:31:00 -
[146]
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 16:33:15 The 10m units of GS / month above is actually an low value for the consumption. This 10m/month is solely based on the Forge region and solely due to drone construction, which did not account for GS being bought outside of the Forge region. This also does not account for the use of GS in the t4 item that is currently being used in about 1/2 of POS modules. Given those two things, it is more likely that GS consumption is more along the lines of 15m-20m per month and not 10m/month.
With 15-20m / month figure, it would take about 10 to 13 months to eat through the 200m units stockpiled.
|
Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics K162
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 18:40:00 -
[147]
Glancing around a few regions, consumption was about 30M/month pre-PI from what I saw. Verge Vendor, Forge, and another region (that I forget... didn't notice it till someone else mentioned it) each used up a few hundred thousand a day and a bit over a million a day when combined together.
|
Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus IT Alliance
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 22:01:00 -
[148]
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:03:47 Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:02:45
I just flew around 16 empire regions and wrote down the amount of GS that were moved from 4/11 to 5/11 (well before PI) in each region:
The Citadel: 10.26m Essence: 3.2m Genesis: <1m Sinq Laison: 16.2m Everyshore: 6.1m Verge vendor: 11.7m Metropolis: <1m Domain: <1m Heimatar: <1m Khanid: <1m Derelik: <1m Devoid: <1m Tash: <1m Kador: <1m Forge: 12.56m Lonetrek: 26.8m
Total: 86.82m / month
|
SpyAlt122
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 22:11:00 -
[149]
Originally by: Arthor Dark Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:03:47 Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:02:45
I just flew around 16 empire regions and wrote down the amount of GS that were moved from 4/11 to 5/11 (well before PI) in each region:
The Citadel: 10.26m Essence: 3.2m Genesis: <1m Sinq Laison: 16.2m Everyshore: 6.1m Verge vendor: 11.7m Metropolis: <1m Domain: <1m Heimatar: <1m Khanid: <1m Derelik: <1m Devoid: <1m Tash: <1m Kador: <1m Forge: 12.56m Lonetrek: 26.8m
Total: 86.82m / month
Me wantz to have slice of profit concomitant to great impending shortage.
|
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 22:15:00 -
[150]
Originally by: Arthor Dark Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:03:47 Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:02:45
I just flew around 16 empire regions and wrote down the amount of GS that were moved from 4/11 to 5/11 (well before PI) in each region:
The Citadel: 10.26m Essence: 3.2m Genesis: <1m Sinq Laison: 16.2m Everyshore: 6.1m Verge vendor: 11.7m Metropolis: <1m Domain: <1m Heimatar: <1m Khanid: <1m Derelik: <1m Devoid: <1m Tash: <1m Kador: <1m Forge: 12.56m Lonetrek: 26.8m
Total: 86.82m / month
Going off that, I think the stockpiles have been vastly overestimated.
|
|
Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus IT Alliance
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 22:19:00 -
[151]
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:20:33 There is a problem with the 86m / month number. I bet people were buying / selling them from one region to another, i.e. NPC trade routes. Hence the huge numbers that were moved. For instance Verge Vendor had a high avg price of 450 isk / unit and shows 11.7m units there, maybe it was a sell point for NPC trade route traders?
This tells us nothing about what the drones actually require.
Over the same period, 4/11-5/11, 64,656 ogre IIs were sold in Jita 4-4, which is equivalent to 258.6k of Guidance Systems. Even if you multiply that over the 4 large drones, then again for mediums and light, you come out to only about 3.1m / month, as a very rought gustimate and a far cry from 86m / month.
Anyone know if there were NPC Guidance Systems buy orders? and if people actually did those trade routes?
|
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 22:21:00 -
[152]
Edited by: Icanti on 10/07/2010 22:23:08
Originally by: Arthor Dark There is a problem with the 86m / month number. I bet people were buying / selling them from one region to another, i.e. NPC trade routes. Hence the huge numbers that were moved. For instance Verge Vendor had a high avg price of 450 isk / unit and shows 11.7m units there, maybe it was a sell point for NPC trade route traders?
This tells us nothing about what the drones actually require.
Over the same period, 4/11-5/11, 64,656 ogre IIs were sold in Jita 4-4, which is equivalent to 258.6k of Guidance Systems. Even if you multiply that over the 4 large drones, then again for mediums and light, you come out to only about 3.1m / month, as a very rought gustimate and a far cry from 86m / month.
How about people/corps manufacturing for their own consumption?
Edit- Also, Jita is not the only market for drones.....
|
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.11 10:13:00 -
[153]
Rather than start a new thread.... Consumer electronics are also being sold, right now, for under cost price.
Takes 40 Toxic metals and 40 Chiral Structures to produce 5 Consumer electronics.
Toxic Metals - Lets say they are worth 500 isk per unit (going for 800 in Jita right now)
Chiral Structures - 500 per unit.
40* 500 = 20k
So that's 40k for 5.
8k per Consumer electronic, and yet they are being sold for 3.6k in Jita right now.
People are insane!!!!
|
Dr Nefarius
|
Posted - 2010.07.11 11:46:00 -
[154]
Originally by: Icanti Edited by: Icanti on 11/07/2010 10:17:37 Take a look at Consumer electronics.
Takes 40 Toxic metals and 40 Chiral Structures to produce 5 Consumer electronics.
Toxic Metals - Lets say they are worth 500 isk per unit (going for 800 in Jita right now)
Chiral Structures - 500 per unit.
40* 500 = 20k
So that's 40k for 5.
8k per Consumer electronic, and yet they are being sold for 3.6k in Jita right now.
People are insane!!!!
I'm afraid I didn't understand the part where you explained why CS was underrated, and not Toxic metals and Chiral Structures beeing overrated....
But yeah, I think CS is likely to climb some more.
|
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.11 12:25:00 -
[155]
Edited by: Icanti on 11/07/2010 12:25:42
Originally by: Dr Nefarius
I'm afraid I didn't understand the part where you explained why CS was underrated, and not Toxic metals and Chiral Structures beeing overrated....
But yeah, I think CS is likely to climb some more.
I guess it all depends on where the price of the raw products settle.
Currently, Chiral structures are selling below Jita cost price.
Takes 3000 non-CS Crystals to produce 20 Chiral structures.
Non-CS is going for 7.3 isk in Jita.
3000*7= 21k
That's 1050 isk per unit. So based on the current cost of the products, Chiral structures are also undervalued.
Will the P1 products rise or fall from here?
|
Dr Nefarius
|
Posted - 2010.07.11 13:44:00 -
[156]
I don't think it will be a matter of stable prices for the raw materials. I think the 'standard level' that prices will be set from will be P2, for the simple fact that it's fairly easy to make P2:s (almost all can be done on a single planet), and that there is a direct demand for many P2:s as POS fuel and for t2 manufacturing. For those making other P2:s, they will have something to base their price on as a comparison (or they will shift production).
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.11 16:03:00 -
[157]
Originally by: Icanti Edited by: Icanti on 11/07/2010 10:17:37 Take a look at Consumer electronics.
Takes 40 Toxic metals and 40 Chiral Structures to produce 5 Consumer electronics.
Toxic Metals - Lets say they are worth 500 isk per unit (going for 800 in Jita right now)
Chiral Structures - 500 per unit.
40* 500 = 20k
So that's 40k for 5.
8k per Consumer electronic, and yet they are being sold for 3.6k in Jita right now.
People are insane!!!!
It's always a good investment sign when the P2 is undervalued compared to its inputs, and then its major input is also undervalued compared to the P0. Consumer Elec is bound to rise.
But it's not used in Guidance Systems. Perhaps you should start a thread about it?
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2010.07.11 16:09:00 -
[158]
Originally by: Arthor Dark Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 16:49:32
The 10m units of GS / month above is actually a low value for the consumption. This 10m/month is solely based on the Forge region and solely due to drone construction, which did not account for GS being bought outside of the Forge region. This also does not account for the use of GS in the t4 item that is currently being used in about 1/2 of POS modules. Given those two things, it is more likely that GS consumption is more along the lines of 15m-20m per month and not 10m/month.
With 15-20m / month figure, it would take about 10 to 13 months to eat through the 200m units stockpiled.
Good guess but far from target.Gs was hardly the best npc good to trade there were much better things like wheat for example that were used in daily rotes.Gs was hard to aquire and hard to sell so nobody or very low part of the population were actually trading it. So the numbers you see are mostly for production. knowledge is power |
Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries
|
Posted - 2010.07.11 16:55:00 -
[159]
Originally by: Icanti Takes 3000 non-CS Crystals to produce 20 Chiral structures.
Non-CS is going for 7.3 isk in Jita.
Anyone who uses P0 prices in their calculations should be given the same amount of trust as an E-Bank spokesperson.
|
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.11 17:04:00 -
[160]
Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab
Originally by: Icanti Takes 3000 non-CS Crystals to produce 20 Chiral structures.
Non-CS is going for 7.3 isk in Jita.
Anyone who uses P0 prices in their calculations should be given the same amount of trust as an E-Bank spokesperson.
I'm not saying buy them, I'm just asking are they undervalued or not.
How should we value p0 materials? What should the market value be?
|
|
mechtech
SRS Industries SRS.
|
Posted - 2010.07.11 17:14:00 -
[161]
Edited by: mechtech on 11/07/2010 17:16:28
Originally by: Icanti
How should we value p0 materials? What should the market value be?
P0 is costly, and takes more hauling effort to improt and export. Essentially, anybody that knows even the basics of PI will not be importing or exporting P0. P0 might end up undervalued (lots of people exporting P0 only to find no demand) or overvalued (nobody exporting P0 and very low market supply), but either way it doesn't matter.
P1 prices are what you should be looking at as a base price for PI goods. I'd expect P1 to drop and P2 to rise until P2 is finally selling at cost.
As for Guidance Systems, Arthor's posts are interesting. I'm inclined to believe that much of the 80m used per month was used for NPC trading, but certainly 3m GS used per month in the Forge alone for drones is not a small number. Remember, drones are used and bought everywhere, especially 0.0 and WH space. It's safe to say there will be demand for at least 10m a month. They're also used in P4 production (which hasn't picked up at all due to POS module stockpiles). Time will tell...
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2010.07.11 20:42:00 -
[162]
1-1.7m units of gs traded per day, many of them from buy orders.This means more and more people are not willing to wait and halt their production but instead are bying w/e is on the market.Next week gs hits 18k. knowledge is power |
Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus IT Alliance
|
Posted - 2010.07.11 21:02:00 -
[163]
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 11/07/2010 21:04:31
Originally by: Grozen 1-1.7m units of gs traded per day, many of them from buy orders.This means more and more people are not willing to wait and halt their production but instead are bying w/e is on the market.Next week gs hits 18k.
On 7/10, 1.3m unit were sold at 12.5k, over 403 market orders, for an average of about 3.2k units per order. I doubt much of that was from speculators though, as the price has just shifted from 4k to 13k. So maybe it is for production.
|
Shar Tegral
|
Posted - 2010.07.14 19:38:00 -
[164]
From anecdotal evidence (and I haven't been to Jita lately) but it seems to me that the current prices for Guidance Systems have started to collapse. You can see various attempts to manipulate the market though. There's one or two people buying from their own abnormally high priced goods to give the "regional market history" an inflated boost.
So much for the whole, "BUY THEM NOW".
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2010.07.14 19:49:00 -
[165]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
From anecdotal evidence (and I haven't been to Jita lately) but it seems to me that the current prices for Guidance Systems have started to collapse. You can see various attempts to manipulate the market though. There's one or two people buying from their own abnormally high priced goods to give the "regional market history" an inflated boost.
So much for the whole, "BUY THEM NOW".
I don't see manipulation just free market.People are dumping their stockpiles and traders are trading.If anyones tries to buyout the gs he will be in for a sore loss just cuz many ppl can't hold to their stockpiles and will just dump regardless. knowledge is power |
Shar Tegral
|
Posted - 2010.07.14 19:56:00 -
[166]
Originally by: Shar Tegral You can see various attempts to manipulate the market though. There's one or two people buying from their own abnormally high priced goods to give the "regional market history" an inflated boost.
Originally by: Grozen I don't see manipulation just free market.
If you look at the raw market history you can see the actions at keeping regional averages higher than actual. If that is not manipulation, pray tell, what is? PS: I know this trick as I've used it - mostly against competitors who were trying to spike regional prices downward.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Kwaya
|
Posted - 2010.07.14 20:06:00 -
[167]
I agree. Consumer Electronics is going to take a serious dive now. I expect near NPC prices in two weeks time. Everyone holding to CE are in for a nasty surprise.
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.14 20:12:00 -
[168]
Originally by: Kwaya I agree. Consumer Electronics is going to take a serious dive now. I expect near NPC prices in two weeks time. Everyone holding to CE are in for a nasty surprise.
Just put up some buy orders and need to get volume moving, huh?
Claiming a P2 is going to be at P1 pricing is pretty dumb. CE will rise long term. It's commonly used in research and as an input for robotics creation as POS fuel, in addition to being a normal PI building block. Any recent changes in its price are consistent with the broadly seen P2/P3 profit taking from the past few days.
|
Shar Tegral
|
Posted - 2010.07.14 21:31:00 -
[169]
Originally by: Kwaya Consumer Electronics is going to take a serious dive now. I expect near NPC prices in two weeks time.
Originally by: pmchem Claiming a P2 is going to be at P1 pricing is pretty dumb not very smart.
I agreed with what you said Pmchem (with that small alteration - Mods you know.) especially considering the manipulative attempt by Kwaya on CE. In my mind's eye I see the PI market problem mostly along two distinct lines. - Irrational differences between "cost" and "value".
There are two distinct "cost" polars: Those that bought NPC goods at the old NPC price and those whose time is free. In between there are a few people (maybe 1 - 2) that have the momentum going against them.
- Intentional market manipulation via multiple methods.
Everyone can list me the economic value(s) of doing this but the truth is that its simply psychological activity not really economic skillfulness.
(Yes, I know, business is part psychology but doesn't mean I have to PT Barnum all the time.)
Hmmm, had somewhere I was going with this but with the post timer and then me coming back to this much later... I've forgotten. (Damn this getting old business!)
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
JitaPriceChecker2
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 01:19:00 -
[170]
For all of you. Guidance systems are being dropped from MISSIONS. I would sell them and invest money into something else.
|
|
Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics K162
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 02:24:00 -
[171]
Originally by: JitaPriceChecker2 For all of you. Guidance systems are being dropped from MISSIONS. I would sell them and invest money into something else.
Last I heard, GS were only dropping in increments of 10. Is there a mission that drops large amounts? If so, which one? Because 10 seems pretty dern irrelevant.
The mission drops ARE a concern for some things, as they are dropping CE and PV in increments of 1000. Hopefully CCP don't take months to fix it. I hadn't heard of GS dropping in noticeable numbers tho.
|
Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 03:30:00 -
[172]
Originally by: Vilgan Mazran
Originally by: JitaPriceChecker2 For all of you. Guidance systems are being dropped from MISSIONS. I would sell them and invest money into something else.
Last I heard, GS were only dropping in increments of 10. Is there a mission that drops large amounts? If so, which one? Because 10 seems pretty dern irrelevant.
The mission drops ARE a concern for some things, as they are dropping CE and PV in increments of 1000. Hopefully CCP don't take months to fix it. I hadn't heard of GS dropping in noticeable numbers tho.
GS drop at an outrageous rate from NPC haulers in Caldari regions.
Just saying.
Been thinking of creating a guide on where to Convoy hunt for particular PI items but can't be arsed at the moment. For now I will say that the best place to get GS, water and construction blocks (so far) is from Caldari corporations. Miniature electronics and livestock are found in abundance among Amarr corporations, and all things radioactive are handled best by Minmatar corporations.
Time permitting I will compile the information soon. For now I have dumped my investment in all PI products that are carried by NPC convoys or found in missions and will not re-invest until CCP puls their head out of their ass.
Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 03:45:00 -
[173]
lawl you guys made dbrb panic-sell his guidance systems knocking 2000 off the buy price last night
|
Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 04:04:00 -
[174]
Originally by: Weaselior lawl you guys made dbrb panic-sell his guidance systems knocking 2000 off the buy price last night
Still doing my research, but I was able to pull over 2000 GS in less than 2 hours farming NPC convoys in just one system using an Orca and a Raven. Got over 20k water in the process! I am not interested in truly optimizing the process, but if enough people were I think it would crash many PI markets.
Buyer beware!
Off to Ammatar land to see what drops.
Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
mechtech
SRS Industries SRS.
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 04:25:00 -
[175]
Edited by: mechtech on 15/07/2010 04:26:51
Originally by: Patri Andari
Originally by: Weaselior lawl you guys made dbrb panic-sell his guidance systems knocking 2000 off the buy price last night
Still doing my research, but I was able to pull over 2000 GS in less than 2 hours farming NPC convoys in just one system using an Orca and a Raven. Got over 20k water in the process! I am not interested in truly optimizing the process, but if enough people were I think it would crash many PI markets.
Buyer beware!
Off to Ammatar land to see what drops.
Even at GSs at 10k and water at current prices, that's like 12.5m an hour. A Raven alone can make at least double that doing lvl 4s. Assuming the orca account could be semi-afk mining at the same time, yea, that's a pretty terrible way to spend your time.
You're probably just trying to crash the market though (looks like one of GoonSwarms GS holders already panic sold), if so, hats off to ya
|
Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 05:21:00 -
[176]
Originally by: mechtech Edited by: mechtech on 15/07/2010 04:26:51
Originally by: Patri Andari
Originally by: Weaselior lawl you guys made dbrb panic-sell his guidance systems knocking 2000 off the buy price last night
Still doing my research, but I was able to pull over 2000 GS in less than 2 hours farming NPC convoys in just one system using an Orca and a Raven. Got over 20k water in the process! I am not interested in truly optimizing the process, but if enough people were I think it would crash many PI markets.
Buyer beware!
Off to Ammatar land to see what drops.
Even at GSs at 10k and water at current prices, that's like 12.5m an hour. A Raven alone can make at least double that doing lvl 4s. Assuming the orca account could be semi-afk mining at the same time, yea, that's a pretty terrible way to spend your time.
You're probably just trying to crash the market though (looks like one of GoonSwarms GS holders already panic sold), if so, hats off to ya
Not trying to crash the market just making the information available. That being said, it is a pvp game amiright?
Some people are holding on to these investments thinking they are sound and safe. Well nothing in Eve is safe, and no one has a right to reap untold billions without any risks.
Pay attention to the competition and be one step ahead or loose your shirt. I LOVE this game. As for the wasted opportunity costs? meh I did not want to run those missions anyway. In fact, I bought the Raven pilot to pirate. Being able to kill NPC convoys with impunity is an added bonus! The Orca pilt was created as a way to traffic expensive goods without being ganked. I mean who mines anymore?
Another update:
It seems that Khanid space is ripe for convoy shenanigins. Lots of miniature electronics, mechanical parts and livestock. Fertilizer is abundant also. Guidance system drops are rare there but they do happen.
Best part is the only corps in Khanid are Khanid corps and Concord. That means no matter how much you damage your standings you just are considered persona non gratus in Khanid, one of the easiest regions in eve to avoid. Only down side is that there are so few stations.
Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 05:57:00 -
[177]
If it is true the number of people who jumped in and bought GS's then that is a massive bubble.
You only make a profit when you sell the item, and if everyone is trying to sell the price goes down. Sure some people will make some serious money by jumping in and out early but a lot of other players will have to ride it out until demand catches up with supply.
This type of speculation is very long term when done in very large quantities.
Also don't be surprised if CCP looks at the PI output and realises that for certain items there is not enough hitting the market. A quick patch later and you find that the certain item CCP was worried about now makes 5X or 10X as much per run as previous. Anyone holding the item in terms of speculation is screwed.
CCP will be laughing as the mass purchase of NPC goods ended up being a nice little ISK sink.
First rule about Eve patches. Get in and out fast. Work out the holes created by CCP mistakes, invest and sell fairly quickly before changes can be made.
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 08:19:00 -
[178]
Edited by: Grozen on 15/07/2010 08:18:55 Look at all the panic selling.Well done lol.Maybe i can stock some more of this at 800 each. knowledge is power |
mechtech
SRS Industries SRS.
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 08:47:00 -
[179]
Originally by: cosmoray If it is true the number of people who jumped in and bought GS's then that is a massive bubble.
You only make a profit when you sell the item, and if everyone is trying to sell the price goes down. Sure some people will make some serious money by jumping in and out early but a lot of other players will have to ride it out until demand catches up with supply.
This type of speculation is very long term when done in very large quantities.
Also don't be surprised if CCP looks at the PI output and realises that for certain items there is not enough hitting the market. A quick patch later and you find that the certain item CCP was worried about now makes 5X or 10X as much per run as previous. Anyone holding the item in terms of speculation is screwed.
CCP will be laughing as the mass purchase of NPC goods ended up being a nice little ISK sink.
First rule about Eve patches. Get in and out fast. Work out the holes created by CCP mistakes, invest and sell fairly quickly before changes can be made.
I don't think so. POSs are approaching 1/2 of NPC price, almost all POS mods are dropping, ect. There is almost no chance that CCP will increase output. Hell, the macros are only in rudimentary stages and not even working well yet. Once macros get up and running the PI supply will increase yet again.
The bare minimum for P1 prices is about 100 isk per. At this level, a PI macro doing 30 minute cycles can afford a GTC, and a little bit of isk on the side (well below a mining or ratting macro though). At 100 isk per P1, GSs are still 10k per.
Personally, I think this panic selling is incredibly short sighted. I personally won't sell until, at the very least, the build cost equals the sell cost and the market levels out. Of course, that's how the market works, short sighted investors cash out, longer term investors buy up the stock, and the price eventually reaches equilibrium.
Apparently the people selling at 8k can't be bothered to open up a spreadsheet and do the basic calculations, so they can go ahead and cash out at this ridiculous price, I won't stop them
I will admit the stockpile is huge, maybe more than a year in size. If you're not willing to wait 6 months to a year to cash out, cashing now might be an ok option. Of course, any smart person who needed isk in the short term would have cashed out when GSs spiked a bit under a week ago, so I basically see the people selling now as the losers.
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 12:44:00 -
[180]
This is taken from the recent csm meeting: 15:30-16:30 POS Structures / Components CCP Attendees: Eyj=lfur û CCP DrEyjoG, Arnar û CCP Zulupark
This session discussed the unfortunate market situation related to the introduction of planetary interaction, where players could stockpile some of the end products of PI such as Guidance Systems, thus adversely affecting the profitability of their production, as well as buying POS structures from NPCs and reprocessing them for PI goods at greatly reduced cost.
The CSM asked how this situation came about without CCP realizing it, and pointed out that some players had figured this out on Singularity and were ready to make use of it immediately after deployment on Tranquility.
CCP will try to learn from this experience in order to avoid similar things in the future.
Action Point: CCP will do research into the history of this issue and publish a dev blog about it, identifying what steps will be taken to prevent similar things in the future.
They are not going to do anything about this cosmoray you are wrong this time. knowledge is power |
|
RAW23
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 13:06:00 -
[181]
Edited by: RAW23 on 15/07/2010 13:07:29
Originally by: Grozen This is taken from the recent csm meeting: 15:30-16:30 POS Structures / Components CCP Attendees: Eyj=lfur û CCP DrEyjoG, Arnar û CCP Zulupark
This session discussed the unfortunate market situation related to the introduction of planetary interaction, where players could stockpile some of the end products of PI such as Guidance Systems, thus adversely affecting the profitability of their production, as well as buying POS structures from NPCs and reprocessing them for PI goods at greatly reduced cost.
The CSM asked how this situation came about without CCP realizing it, and pointed out that some players had figured this out on Singularity and were ready to make use of it immediately after deployment on Tranquility.
CCP will try to learn from this experience in order to avoid similar things in the future.
Action Point: CCP will do research into the history of this issue and publish a dev blog about it, identifying what steps will be taken to prevent similar things in the future.
They are not going to do anything about this cosmoray you are wrong this time.
I'm not sure this is quite the message that comes out. Some additional passages muddy the waters.
On the one hand:
Originally by: CSM minutes
CCP stated that it decided not to react hastily once the issue [of stockpiling] was discovered because it deemed that the potential damage was limited enough to warrant waiting for a full and well-thought-out solution.
On the other hand:
Originally by: CSM minutes
The question was raised how one can prevent hoarding of goods from NPC suppliers prior to market changes like these without causing a shortage of the items prior to the patch. One solution which was suggested was that NPC provided goods have dynamic pricing which would raise their price significantly once people start to hoard them. The CSM inquired about CCPÆs original plan for these products and the use of the PI feature. CCP explained that it didnÆt really set such specific goals for them but rather sought to create the market mechanism and let player behavior determine how the market functions.
I don't think it is exactly clear that they won't do anything but they certainly don't seem to be in any hurry. And the longer they leave it the more problematic any solution will become. As time goes on any nerf will increasingly hit people who have taken part in normal market activities rather than those who stockpiled goods.
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 13:11:00 -
[182]
I highly doubt ccp wants to mess with player driven markets.From the meeting it looked like they were positive time will offset the stockpiled goods and they want players to find the balance.So stop moaning for a patch/nerf it ain't coming. knowledge is power |
RAW23
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 13:23:00 -
[183]
Originally by: Grozen I highly doubt ccp wants to mess with player driven markets.From the meeting it looked like they were positive time will offset the stockpiled goods and they want players to find the balance.So stop moaning for a patch/nerf it ain't coming.
Not moaning (and I certainly don't want a patch/nerf on this). Just pointing out that your slightly selective quotation missed out the bit about waiting for "a full and well-thought-out solution" to the issue. I'd agree that this is probably exec speak for kicking it into the long grass but you never know ...
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 13:35:00 -
[184]
Even if they do have a solution(big doubt) for this it won't hit before the winter expansion, and by then a lot things may happen.They may even decide that they like what they see and focus on something else. knowledge is power |
Sol Fallstaff
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 13:47:00 -
[185]
I cant see the PI markets stabilising until the seeded npc supplies have run out. As things stand my time is better invested doing lvl 4's than spending the time clicking on extractors and hauling the goods isk per hour wise so we'll see how many people get fed up of the tedium and dont bother, but it is a great source of income for the new player. The macroers may ruin the PI markets if it turns out to be worth it for them.. time will tell.
If the macroers dont drop the price through the floor, then GS at current prices should be a great long term investment... if you can wait until the seeded supplies run out. just be prepared for a bumpy ride
|
Mrs bjSmegma
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 14:33:00 -
[186]
Quote: apparently the people selling at 8k can't be bothered to open up a spreadsheet and do the basic calculations, so they can go ahead and cash out at this ridiculous price, I won't stop them
My spreadsheet says that selling something for more than I'll be charged to buy it back in a month is a good idea.
Guidance System Holders "Hmmmmm where am I gonna fit all these things I can't use? Oh I know I'll put them in the garage next to the technetium I bought at 60 last year."
|
Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 14:49:00 -
[187]
Originally by: Mrs bjSmegma My spreadsheet says that selling something for more than I'll be charged to buy it back in a month is a good idea.
Guidance System Holders "Hmmmmm where am I gonna fit all these things I can't use? Oh I know I'll put them in the garage next to the technetium I bought at 60 last year."
I was playing a drinking game of 'spot the price manipulators' and now have to go back out to get more beer...
|
Talonyc a'Tsuj
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 16:38:00 -
[188]
I'm now selling CE like crazy. CE is dropping back to pre-PI levels. Fortunately I have no robotics in stock. If I had, I'd be selling it for as much as I could.
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 16:43:00 -
[189]
Edited by: pmchem on 15/07/2010 16:45:06 By pretty much any spreadsheet-based analysis of PI out there, GS are not worth producing at their current price via PI. In fact, they're worth buying straight off the market to use as part of production for their P4 -- aside from just buying and holding for the inevitable price rise as current replenishment of supply does not meet current demand. Demand is only being met by stockpilers and speculators dumping.
A lot of people panic selling to take profits, that's all you're seeing here. GS is an easy moneymaker at current prices.
edit: talonyc's post is an even more blatant attempt at market manipulation. CE have been steady the past 24h and are worth 10x their pre-PI cost, lawl. It's like the manipulators here think people can't look at price history graphs. Manipulate better.
|
RAW23
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 17:07:00 -
[190]
Originally by: pmchem
edit: talonyc's post is an even more blatant attempt at market manipulation. CE have been steady the past 24h and are worth 10x their pre-PI cost, lawl. It's like the manipulators here think people can't look at price history graphs. Manipulate better.
The amazing thing is that this stuff consistently works. A sad indictment of humanity.
|
|
Kwaya
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 17:17:00 -
[191]
Edited by: Kwaya on 15/07/2010 17:25:09
The best course of action seems to be selling robotics (and ce) for now. You could hold on to it and look at the prices in a few months but I wouldn't bet on CCP not adjusting PI extraction levels.
The safest way for now: sell robotics and ce. Fast.
You don't have to believe me. Look at the graphs. A steep and consistent downwards slope with no end. Soon you'll be happy to sell ce for under 1000isk/unit.
You have been warned. Don't come back crying in a few days when the final blow punches the price way below 1000isk. Sell now for around 2k and you can still have a decent profit or (if you bought it at a higher price) you can at least minimize your losses. SELL!
|
RAW23
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 17:50:00 -
[192]
Originally by: Kwaya
You don't have to believe me. Look at the graphs. A steep and consistent downwards slope with no end.
Wow - that's really weird. You see, my graph does have an end and it lines up with today's date. Can you post your endless graph of prophecy here so we can all benefit from its wisdom?
My graph is also not consistent - it shows upswings and down swings and, actually, the downward trend is pretty recent and much less significant than the upwards trends the graph also shows.
Are you one of Lord XsiV's alts?
|
MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 17:55:00 -
[193]
I wonder how stupid some people can be.
Why NPC stockpillers have to keep the stash? For 30% profit in next 2-3 years? They alredy have 10X profit. And now risk all that for some % on top in the next long term period?
SELL I say.
|
Sol Fallstaff
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 17:55:00 -
[194]
Any increase in the PI extraction levels will result in PI not being worth doing so i very much doubt if that would be the case
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:10:00 -
[195]
For anyone late to the thread and scratching their heads at the 'SELL!' manipulators, here is why GS and CE (to give 2 examples) are excellent long-term buys right now: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Av49RIDL-V7zdFN0NTZtcjdBMHRxZC1pbUdpVEJsNmc&hl=en#gid=1 and http://spreadsheets0.google.com/ccc?key=taHtreoEfapNEdkqqdxscqg&hl=en_GB#gid=10
In 2 independent spreadsheets you see that it costs much, much more in ingredients to produce CE or GS than you get in resulting finished product (CE or GS). Therefore CE/GS are due to increase in value long term, because people doing PI have no incentive to produce these products compared to other P2/P3 (or just selling the ingredients).
Any given day, someone may buy out Jita causing a price spike, or unload a stockpile causing a temporary drop. Can't panic sell unless you enjoy losing isk. Of course, the manipulators know these long term facts already, so they find a great price to buy when a recent downward sell-off is ending, set up buy orders and then come post here screaming 'SELL! SELL!'. It's an easy ploy. Don't fall for it. In fact -- take the advice of their actions and -buy-.
|
Talonyc a'Tsuj
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:16:00 -
[196]
Originally by: pmchem For anyone late to the thread and scratching their heads at the 'SELL!' manipulators, here is why GS and CE (to give 2 examples) are excellent long-term buys right now: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Av49RIDL-V7zdFN0NTZtcjdBMHRxZC1pbUdpVEJsNmc&hl=en#gid=1 and http://spreadsheets0.google.com/ccc?key=taHtreoEfapNEdkqqdxscqg&hl=en_GB#gid=10
In 2 independent spreadsheets you see that it costs much, much more in ingredients to produce CE or GS than you get in resulting finished product (CE or GS). Therefore CE/GS are due to increase in value long term, because people doing PI have no incentive to produce these products compared to other P2/P3 (or just selling the ingredients).
Any given day, someone may buy out Jita causing a price spike, or unload a stockpile causing a temporary drop. Can't panic sell unless you enjoy losing isk. Of course, the manipulators know these long term facts already, so they find a great price to buy when a recent downward sell-off is ending, set up buy orders and then come post here screaming 'SELL! SELL!'. It's an easy ploy. Don't fall for it. In fact -- take the advice of their actions and -buy-.
Anyone can see those charts are flawed. Even if they weren't flawed, there's the not so remote chance that CCP introduces serious changes to PI. Don't forget PI is a new feature bound to change rapidly in the first period. Those (flawed) calculations are based on here and now but they don't (and can't) take long term changes into consideration.
Anyone saying you shouldn't sell is a crook. They are trying to offload themselves.
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:20:00 -
[197]
Edited by: pmchem on 15/07/2010 18:23:11 I post with logic, numbers, spreadsheets not created by me vetted by other players in S&I, while a manipulator like the one above just posts a vague claim of 'flawed' and a panic declarative to 'sell'.
Check the long-term (20-day) price trends for CE/GS, check the spreadsheets, examine the sheer number of buy orders and 0.01 market pvp in buy orders -- and know I'm the one speaking the truth.
edit: I mean half of talonyc's fearmongering is based on CCP changing PI... as if that's guaranteed to help his cause. It's just laughable.
|
Talonyc a'Tsuj
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:23:00 -
[198]
Originally by: pmchem I post with logic, numbers, spreadsheets not created by me vetted by other players in S&I, while a manipulator like the one above just posts a vague claim of 'flawed' and a panic declarative to 'sell'.
Check the long-term (20-day) price trends for CE/GS, check the spreadsheets, examine the sheer number of buy orders and 0.01 market pvp in buy orders -- and know I'm the one speaking the truth.
Hear this. I offer conventional wisdom and pure logic. CE is at 10x of its NPC value. You didn't seriously believe that it would go to 20x-50x value??? If so, then it's time to reconsider and take cold facts into account. Those charts were made to manipulate you into buying. How convenient of you. Please. It's time to sell. Everything you have.
|
Saehta
Sigillum Militum Xpisti R.A.G.E
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:23:00 -
[199]
Originally by: Talonyc a'Tsuj
Originally by: pmchem For anyone late to the thread and scratching their heads at the 'SELL!' manipulators, here is why GS and CE (to give 2 examples) are excellent long-term buys right now: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Av49RIDL-V7zdFN0NTZtcjdBMHRxZC1pbUdpVEJsNmc&hl=en#gid=1 and http://spreadsheets0.google.com/ccc?key=taHtreoEfapNEdkqqdxscqg&hl=en_GB#gid=10
In 2 independent spreadsheets you see that it costs much, much more in ingredients to produce CE or GS than you get in resulting finished product (CE or GS). Therefore CE/GS are due to increase in value long term, because people doing PI have no incentive to produce these products compared to other P2/P3 (or just selling the ingredients).
Any given day, someone may buy out Jita causing a price spike, or unload a stockpile causing a temporary drop. Can't panic sell unless you enjoy losing isk. Of course, the manipulators know these long term facts already, so they find a great price to buy when a recent downward sell-off is ending, set up buy orders and then come post here screaming 'SELL! SELL!'. It's an easy ploy. Don't fall for it. In fact -- take the advice of their actions and -buy-.
Nuh uh
Fixed your comeback to something less wordy. -----------------------------------
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:27:00 -
[200]
In the long term, NPC value means nothing as stockpiles are finite and dwindling. Talonyc knows this, and wants to buy. Compare CE's price to non-NPC seeded P2s such as supertensile plastics. CE will inevitably rise.
Talonyc if you want to get better at market manipulation, I am sure several people on the forum could help you out. The efforts by 'sell!' manipulators in this thread are pretty sad, come up with a better story please.
|
|
MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:28:00 -
[201]
How long to keep, dude? 1,2 or more years? For what, 30% profit?
On the other side, there is P1 materials showing ugly head of price under 300 or even 200 isk, coz no one wants them, used in products that can be replaced with much cheaper NPC stockpiles causing that spreadsheets to become more and more self-fullfilling. Yes, in the red side of equation.
Simply, too much stockpilled Pi, and very low demand.
Oh they are worth alot more, maybe twice this price, but sometime in the future, who knows when. Have 5-10x profit now? SELL I say.
|
Dr Halley
Amarr Viziam
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:30:00 -
[202]
Originally by: MMarlon How long to keep, dude? 1,2 or more years? For what, 30% profit?
On the other side, there is P1 materials showing ugly head of price under 300 or even 200 isk, coz no one wants them, used in products that can be replaced with much cheaper NPC stockpiles causing that spreadsheets to become more and more self-fullfilling. Yes, in the red side of equation.
Simply, too much stockpilled Pi, and very low demand.
Oh they are worth alot more, maybe twice this price, but sometime in the future, who knows when. Have 5-10x profit now? SELL I say.
Seems to be a valid point. I have no other choice but to agree. "4 of 5 Doctors agree that 0.0 is good for your health." |
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:35:00 -
[203]
So whose alt is Halley?
Anyway, for the products under discussion there is plenty of demand. GS are used in T2 drones (I hear T2 drones are kind of popular and sometimes people even lose them), while CE have 1,356 different uses in manufacture/research (it's true - check out all the items it's needed to do research for) and are also used as an ingredient to create Robotics, which as I hear, gets used now and then.
They are literally among the highest demand items within their tiers.
|
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:35:00 -
[204]
Originally by: Talonyc a'Tsuj
Anyone can see those charts are flawed. Even if they weren't flawed, there's the not so remote chance that CCP introduces serious changes to PI. Don't forget PI is a new feature bound to change rapidly in the first period. Those (flawed) calculations are based on here and now but they don't (and can't) take long term changes into consideration.
Anyone saying you shouldn't sell is a crook. They are trying to offload themselves.
Exactly, PI is a new feature, and going on the current value of the end product, you could quite easily argue that CCP may consider reducing extraction rates to ensure that people stick with it.
At current prices, pretty soon no one is even going to bother, you can make more isk with less hassle running one lvl4 mission compared to hours of aimless clicking. At least in missions you get to see something go boom.
Either people lose interest and production falls off completely or ccp are forced to make PI more profitable for people who can be bothered.
But don't mind me, continue with your market crashing attempts and I will join you buying up the cheap stock.
|
Supervisor Grammel
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:37:00 -
[205]
Originally by: Dr Halley
Originally by: MMarlon How long to keep, dude? 1,2 or more years? For what, 30% profit?
On the other side, there is P1 materials showing ugly head of price under 300 or even 200 isk, coz no one wants them, used in products that can be replaced with much cheaper NPC stockpiles causing that spreadsheets to become more and more self-fullfilling. Yes, in the red side of equation.
Simply, too much stockpilled Pi, and very low demand.
Oh they are worth alot more, maybe twice this price, but sometime in the future, who knows when. Have 5-10x profit now? SELL I say.
Seems to be a valid point. I have no other choice but to agree.
Well, I wouldn't say it's a sure bet, but I agree that CCP could (repeat: could) introduces some changes to planetary interaction that could (!) have serious effects on material prices.
I agree with the notion that the future is obscure. IF (!) you have bought CE/ROB (etc) at NPC prices then you should probably bail out now.
You could ofc take a wait-and-see approach, sure. But it has a risk factor attached to it. Then again it could make a fortune.
|
Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:40:00 -
[206]
Originally by: MMarlon How long to keep, dude? 1,2 or more years? For what, 30% profit?
GS wasn't 'supposed' to hit 10k until 6 months from now, yet here we are. Thanks, but I'll take 2-5x profits 3-6 months from now.
Originally by: MMarlon On the other side, there is P1 materials showing ugly head of price under 300 or even 200 isk, coz no one wants them, used in products that can be replaced with much cheaper NPC stockpiles causing that spreadsheets to become more and more self-fullfilling. Yes, in the red side of equation.
Having been trading in those underpriced P1 materials, almost all of them are going up faster than I can gather ISK to buy...
Yeah, a big crash there.
Originally by: MMarlon Simply, too much stockpilled Pi, and very low demand.
Oh they are worth alot more, maybe twice this price, but sometime in the future, who knows when. Have 5-10x profit now? SELL I say.
With so much stockpiled goods and such low demand we should be seeing rock-bottom prices RIGHT NOW?
Yet we don't. It is almost as if we're still at the bottom of the rock or what ever.
Anyway, SELL I say.
|
Miss AmarrPriceCheck
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:43:00 -
[207]
The funniest part of these posts is that even the people saying to sell are admitting that prices are going to rise, and the only question is how much. I think that tells you all you need to know.
|
ZeJesus
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:48:00 -
[208]
Originally by: Miss AmarrPriceCheck The funniest part of these posts is that even the people saying to sell are admitting that prices are going to rise, and the only question is how much. I think that tells you all you need to know.
Well, they are also saying that PI could change. Don't forget that. And it seems to me a legit argument.
|
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:52:00 -
[209]
Edited by: Icanti on 15/07/2010 18:54:27
Originally by: ZeJesus
Well, they are also saying that PI could change. Don't forget that. And it seems to me a legit argument.
Yes, they are arguing CCP may make it even less profitable
Much is riding on PI. A lot of real life $$$ is depending on dust, and hence PI being a success. That's the bottom line.
Currently Dust is going to fall flat on its face as who in their right mind is going to care if they lose a planet when they can go and buy all they need from the market for such low ball amounts?
Odds are CCP making PI more profitable, and this is where the smart money is.
|
MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 18:53:00 -
[210]
Originally by: Miss AmarrPriceCheck The funniest part of these posts is that even the people saying to sell are admitting that prices are going to rise, and the only question is how much. I think that tells you all you need to know.
Well that is true. I personally have couple of millions GS and Mech parts, Robotics and some others. GS cannot sell, no one wants them, will crash the market if I just touch the sell button; And, as I see, all buy orders are from respectable traders in this forum, trying to make illusion of demand.
Robotics selling atm, coz it's cheaper to make them at this prices.
Not desperate to sell, made alot in the past weeks, dont need isk at all. But will not buy a single Pi piece more.
|
|
Sazkyen
State War Academy
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 19:01:00 -
[211]
Originally by: MMarlon
Originally by: Miss AmarrPriceCheck The funniest part of these posts is that even the people saying to sell are admitting that prices are going to rise, and the only question is how much. I think that tells you all you need to know.
Well that is true. I personally have couple of millions GS and Mech parts, Robotics and some others. GS cannot sell, no one wants them, will crash the market if I just touch the sell button; And, as I see, all buy orders are from respectable traders in this forum, trying to make illusion of demand.
Robotics selling atm, coz it's cheaper to make them at this prices.
Not desperate to sell, made alot in the past weeks, dont need isk at all. But will not buy a single Pi piece more.
So how high is CE going in the long run then? I checked the excel files but I couldn't really understand them. All I can see is that they are probably saying that CE is supposed to be around 7k. -SIG- Ship comparison |
Kwaya
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 19:04:00 -
[212]
Originally by: Sazkyen
Originally by: MMarlon
Originally by: Miss AmarrPriceCheck The funniest part of these posts is that even the people saying to sell are admitting that prices are going to rise, and the only question is how much. I think that tells you all you need to know.
Well that is true. I personally have couple of millions GS and Mech parts, Robotics and some others. GS cannot sell, no one wants them, will crash the market if I just touch the sell button; And, as I see, all buy orders are from respectable traders in this forum, trying to make illusion of demand.
Robotics selling atm, coz it's cheaper to make them at this prices.
Not desperate to sell, made alot in the past weeks, dont need isk at all. But will not buy a single Pi piece more.
So how high is CE going in the long run then? I checked the excel files but I couldn't really understand them. All I can see is that they are probably saying that CE is supposed to be around 7k.
The reality is probably closer to 700ISK instead of 7000ISK.
Do yourself a favour and drop the ballast. Sell CE/Robotics while you still can.
S E L L
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 19:07:00 -
[213]
Originally by: Sazkyen
So how high is CE going in the long run then? I checked the excel files but I couldn't really understand them. All I can see is that they are probably saying that CE is supposed to be around 7k.
That's a reasonable and plausible price for after stockpiles start to run dry. You'll see a slow climb towards that, with a short-term drop when someone unloads their stock and others follow suit. We're approaching the end of one of those phases around now.
|
MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 19:11:00 -
[214]
Originally by: Sazkyen
So how high is CE going in the long run then? I checked the excel files but I couldn't really understand them. All I can see is that they are probably saying that CE is supposed to be around 7k.
Dunno dude, I don't find that table clear enough either. But taking simple math for CE today should cost around 5.600 (Chiral Structures 196 and Toxic Metals 509)
Oh wait, Chiral Structures 196 isk, how's that possible? We should rewrite our P1 cost math, that's for sure.
|
mental maverick
Duty. Duty. Private Security
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 19:14:00 -
[215]
Edited by: mental maverick on 15/07/2010 19:14:56 This thread is starting to remind me of a pretty funny movie i saw once, anybody care to take a guess?
hint: Jim Carrey is in it...
|
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 19:16:00 -
[216]
Originally by: mental maverick Edited by: mental maverick on 15/07/2010 19:14:56 This thread is starting to remind me of a pretty funny movie i saw once, anybody care to take a guess?
hint: Jim Carrey is in it...
How about liar liar?
|
mental maverick
Duty. Duty. Private Security
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 19:23:00 -
[217]
Originally by: Icanti How about liar liar?
Wrong, although it kinda fits i guess...
|
Chara Vega
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 19:26:00 -
[218]
Originally by: mental maverick Edited by: mental maverick on 15/07/2010 19:14:56 This thread is starting to remind me of a pretty funny movie i saw once, anybody care to take a guess?
hint: Jim Carrey is in it...
Yes man.
|
Thrasymachus TheSophist
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 20:01:00 -
[219]
This thread delivers!!!
Great rhetoric. Great issue.
9/10
|
Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics K162
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 20:59:00 -
[220]
Given the current P2/P3/p4 prices, control towers and outposts have already dropped to nearly half the old price. Why would CCP adjust PI to make this drop even more noticeable?
|
|
Anar Chism
Amarr
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 21:12:00 -
[221]
I dont see any reason for adjustment at all, the Pi market is going great. Less smart people got screwed by mantra P1 for 385 isk minimum, NPC seeded going sky high, and get flushed by less greedy traders.
Now have overpriced poisoned Pi in their hangar and hoping for some help to get their isk back. At least part of it. Yes, it is just normal. |
FilterRelease
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 21:59:00 -
[222]
Originally by: Talonyc a'Tsuj
Originally by: pmchem I post with logic, numbers, spreadsheets not created by me vetted by other players in S&I, while a manipulator like the one above just posts a vague claim of 'flawed' and a panic declarative to 'sell'.
Check the long-term (20-day) price trends for CE/GS, check the spreadsheets, examine the sheer number of buy orders and 0.01 market pvp in buy orders -- and know I'm the one speaking the truth.
Hear this. I offer conventional wisdom and pure logic. CE is at 10x of its NPC value. You didn't seriously believe that it would go to 20x-50x value??? If so, then it's time to reconsider and take cold facts into account. Those charts were made to manipulate you into buying. How convenient of you. Please. It's time to sell. Everything you have.
You forget that ccp has a interest in inflating your iskies away. Why would they want deflation and each isk to be worth more? It doesn't serve them long term. But I understand why you do what you do :)
|
Anar Chism
Amarr
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 22:05:00 -
[223]
It's not about inflation or deflation, but simple harvesting. ******s bleeded to death overbidding each other to get a piece of golden NPC Pi items. Tards get flushed. And it will happen again, and again, and again, according to amount of Pi stockpiled for years at best.
|
FilterRelease
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 22:07:00 -
[224]
Edited by: FilterRelease on 15/07/2010 22:10:14
Originally by: Anar Chism It's not about inflation or deflation, but simple harvesting. ******s bleeded to death overbidding each other to get a piece of golden NPC Pi items. Tards get flushed. And it will happen again, and again, and again, according to amount of Pi stockpiled for years at best.
Yes but if those first widgets go up in price then look at t2 prices. They are on the rise. Everything will inflate in price. We have been deflating for how long now? This is good for ccp. Also PI better get MORE profitable in iskie amounts and inflation is a good way to make that happen.
Let me also add I'm not in cash anymore (I have enough not to hurt). I am sitting in t2 and pi. If prices rise I rise
|
Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
|
Posted - 2010.07.15 23:05:00 -
[225]
Originally by: Talonyc a'Tsuj [
Anyone can see those charts are flawed. Even if they weren't flawed,
Then you should have no difficult articulating those flaws.
|
Ari Chu
|
Posted - 2010.07.16 00:10:00 -
[226]
Colonies cost 10mil to build.
I'm really looking forward to seeing how DUST will be implemented. How much would people be willing to pay to destroy a colony that can be rebuilt very quickly for 10M isk?
Even if the # of Merc groups that are active is sufficiently low enough were every day there is exactly 1 colony attacked and destroyed (meaning that the price to hire mercs are as high as they could possibly be, presuming that EVE players have to bid for the services)..... What is the average expected cost?
Would someone pay, every day, 100Mil to destroy a colony that could be rebuilt and was only producing 1M per day? Would they pay 10mil per day? What if the colony produced 10mil worth of materials per day?
When people try to calculate what the long term values of PI are going to be - they should atleast try to get a handle upon what impact DUST will have. Maybe DUST will fail within a month of release, thereby having no impact? ---
"The Galaxy is only as big as you make it." - presumably Eve Game Designers. |
Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
|
Posted - 2010.07.16 00:26:00 -
[227]
Made my isk and am happy with the return
Now to make more i could re-invest in P1-P3 or use what I have to make P4 items cheaply and cash in that way.
I no longer make many P1-P3. It's stupid. They drop you know?
I import P2-P3 from drops I aquire casually (no clicky clicky) and produce the rest. P4 is where the real isk is at! The choice is obvious. Import your P1-P3 items or produce them. Since most P2-P3 items drop from NPCs ( including GS available in huge amounts in Caldari space) you have to do your homework to find out where and who to find the items you need/want.
Hold on to your stockpiles fools! I neither want or need it! NPCs drop them just fine for my taste. Oh and the items I recover from drops....are FREE!
Btw Noobs are in your mission space stealing your PI products!
Get in there Mortimer and sell, sell sell!
Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
|
Posted - 2010.07.16 00:43:00 -
[228]
Heh, nice try! But meh, we are soo greedy, we will risk our 20x profit at present price to get additional 2x on top on that. Ya, the spreadsheet don't show so, but that's irrelevant, one told somewhere that it will go 100K, maybe 200K, or million, who knows...
|
Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
|
Posted - 2010.07.16 01:09:00 -
[229]
Originally by: MMarlon Heh, nice try! But meh, we are soo greedy, we will risk our 20x profit at present price to get additional 2x on top on that. Ya, the spreadsheet don't show so, but that's irrelevant, one told somewhere that it will go 100K, maybe 200K, or million, who knows...
ORLY? then I think you have called my bluff.
Let's try:
Organic Mortar Applicators Current sale (in Jita)
How made?
6X robotics (NPCc drop 70 from convoy) 40X Bacteriae (NPCs drop over 1000 from convoy) 6X Condensates (no NPC drops recorded but costs 60,000 per unit in Jita)= 360,000.00 (Can buy or produce)
Sale Price? (Jita) = 617,899,99 Buy Price? (Jita) = 506,036.89
So, spending 360,000. plus import/export costs will yield a tidy profit if the items used are not gained by clicky but by pirating.
Put that in your spread sheet and smoke it!
Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
|
Posted - 2010.07.16 01:30:00 -
[230]
What? I should petition CCP at once! Who dares to touch my stockpiled GS worth hundreds of billions at this price, or thousands of billions at projected price in 7 years?!? I'm so frustrated, I'll sell now couple of millions just for fun. ---Checking demand--- What?!? There is no enough buy orders just to fill small portion of my stash. Oh, what a worthless junk i collected...
|
|
Maria Yumeno
|
Posted - 2010.07.16 01:43:00 -
[231]
Edited by: Maria Yumeno on 16/07/2010 01:44:37 I don't see there is any way robotics is not going to increase.
The only downwards pressure on the market is the (finite) stockpiles. They went up to 28k this weekend which was the point a lot of investors decided to cash out. This weekend will see a similar thing, people getting scared and dumping. The difference will be that at these prices it is more risky speculating on them and so some of the demand has gone. This will happen until the price drops to say 15k isk, then everyone will jump back on the bandwagon pushing the prices back to 30k easily.
NPC drops are no where near enough to cover the amount of demand there is from pos', t2 production and pos module production.
Edit - You might wanna look at other npc prices. Oxides are around 9k isk (still decreasing) uranium is 12k isk and decreasing slowly. But It would take a long time to drop below 5k (if they ever do). CE at 2k isk is a steal
|
Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
|
Posted - 2010.07.16 01:44:00 -
[232]
Once folks figure out where and when to attack an NPC convoy, the profits will know no ends!
It used to be segregated by the products sold at each station, but that has changed. Now it seems each race carries a primary, secondary and tertiary PI product along with mass amounts of consumer goods.
I am still researching and I think I will keep the results private now as the returns seem to be hefty. I will say this though, The tertiary product of MANY Caldari corporations is Guidance Systems. They drop pretty often. Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
|
Posted - 2010.07.16 01:53:00 -
[233]
Originally by: Maria Yumeno Edited by: Maria Yumeno on 16/07/2010 01:44:37 I don't see there is any way robotics is not going to increase.
The only downwards pressure on the market is the (finite) stockpiles. They went up to 28k this weekend which was the point a lot of investors decided to cash out. This weekend will see a similar thing, people getting scared and dumping. The difference will be that at these prices it is more risky speculating on them and so some of the demand has gone. This will happen until the price drops to say 15k isk, then everyone will jump back on the bandwagon pushing the prices back to 30k easily.
NPC drops are no where near enough to cover the amount of demand there is from pos', t2 production and pos module production.
Edit - You might wanna look at other npc prices. Oxides are around 9k isk (still decreasing) uranium is 12k isk and decreasing slowly. But It would take a long time to drop below 5k (if they ever do). CE at 2k isk is a steal
3X Robotics = 10x Consumer electronics + 10X Mechanical parts
Guess where CE,MP and even Robotics drop! Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
RAW23
|
Posted - 2010.07.16 07:44:00 -
[234]
Originally by: Patri Andari Once folks figure out where and when to attack an NPC convoy, the profits will know no ends!
I'm not sure that ganking convoys for half the hourly profit of running level 4s is going to be a particularly popular career path.
I must say, though, that I admire your stamina. You are working/posting really hard to try to depress prices with the slenderest backing for your "arguments". It obviously means a lot to you that prices go down. How many of each of these items are you hoping to pick up and what is your target price?
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.07.16 09:16:00 -
[235]
Obv not a lot of ppl with logic in the thread.Currently i don't give rats ass what happens to my planet.Currently everything i produce is worth a jack **** of what i make when i make my $ with real good methods.So why would ccp bother screwing whats already screwed?
Whats the incentive people will have to take my ****ty planet which i don't care for?Or maybe they will boost exraction rates so that nobody in his right mind will produce goods that sell for 100k for 24hours work. Get your facts and sheets straight then come back. knowledge is power |
Emnity Preston
Caldari Vision. The Laughing Men
|
Posted - 2010.07.16 09:28:00 -
[236]
Who is to say the economy in Dust will operate on anything like the scales in eve itself?
If your colony cost 10mil to install and produces around 30mil per month (for example) that could be pretty minor space bucks, but pretty major mercenary soldier grunt bucks. Rifles, Grenades and tanks etc could be in the 100-25k boundary in dust itself and maybe a whole band could be hired for 1.5mil per hit etc. Until the scales are unleashed/revealed it will be hard to establish how exactly it integrates, but I'm definitely convinced we dont have the whole picture to speculate on.
As things stand right now, would people go through the hassle of denying people a few mil/month passive space bucks? Maybe not. Will there be decent reasons for hiring teenage twitch FPS players at all? More than likely or they wouldnt be developing an integrated game.
|
Maria Yumeno
|
Posted - 2010.07.16 09:33:00 -
[237]
Originally by: Patri Andari Once folks figure out where and when to attack an NPC convoy, the profits will know no ends!
It used to be segregated by the products sold at each station, but that has changed. Now it seems each race carries a primary, secondary and tertiary PI product along with mass amounts of consumer goods.
I am still researching and I think I will keep the results private now as the returns seem to be hefty. I will say this though, The tertiary product of MANY Caldari corporations is Guidance Systems. They drop pretty often.
Hmm... so you make a killing off NPC convoys and yet you post this information in order to get prices to drop?
|
Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries
|
Posted - 2010.07.16 09:48:00 -
[238]
Originally by: Emnity Preston Who is to say the economy in Dust will operate on anything like the scales in eve itself?
If your colony cost 10mil to install and produces around 30mil per month (for example) that could be pretty minor space bucks, but pretty major mercenary soldier grunt bucks. Rifles, Grenades and tanks etc could be in the 100-25k boundary in dust itself and maybe a whole band could be hired for 1.5mil per hit etc. Until the scales are unleashed/revealed it will be hard to establish how exactly it integrates, but I'm definitely convinced we dont have the whole picture to speculate on.
Elite command center + several spaceports, etc, costs somewhat more than 10M and makes you more than 30mil per month unless you're extracting stuff in high-sec.
Besides 20M ~= $1 with current PLEX prices, so if a dust group did e.g. 10 x 2M hits they'd get free $1 micro-transaction to use for upgrades.
|
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 01:05:00 -
[239]
Originally by: Patri Andari Once folks figure out where and when to attack an NPC convoy, the profits will know no ends!
It used to be segregated by the products sold at each station, but that has changed. Now it seems each race carries a primary, secondary and tertiary PI product along with mass amounts of consumer goods.
I am still researching and I think I will keep the results private now as the returns seem to be hefty. I will say this though, The tertiary product of MANY Caldari corporations is Guidance Systems. They drop pretty often.
for the future: this was a pretty good attempt but you're overselling it and the "it's a secret BUT LOOK HERE" thing is too transparent - you should have hinted at it and had a sockpuppet alt then reveal it
|
Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 03:57:00 -
[240]
Originally by: Weaselior
Originally by: Patri Andari Once folks figure out where and when to attack an NPC convoy, the profits will know no ends!
It used to be segregated by the products sold at each station, but that has changed. Now it seems each race carries a primary, secondary and tertiary PI product along with mass amounts of consumer goods.
I am still researching and I think I will keep the results private now as the returns seem to be hefty. I will say this though, The tertiary product of MANY Caldari corporations is Guidance Systems. They drop pretty often.
for the future: this was a pretty good attempt but you're overselling it and the "it's a secret BUT LOOK HERE" thing is too transparent - you should have hinted at it and had a sockpuppet alt then reveal it
You're right. I suck at this propoganda thing. I could learn a lot from Goons. You guys recruiting?
Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
|
Messoroz
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 04:08:00 -
[241]
Edited by: Messoroz on 17/07/2010 04:09:10 Edited by: Messoroz on 17/07/2010 04:08:55
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Patri Andari Once folks figure out where and when to attack an NPC convoy, the profits will know no ends!
I'm not sure that ganking convoys for half the hourly profit of running level 4s is going to be a particularly popular career path.
I must say, though, that I admire your stamina. You are working/posting really hard to try to depress prices with the slenderest backing for your "arguments". It obviously means a lot to you that prices go down. How many of each of these items are you hoping to pick up and what is your target price?
I make around 1 mil per convoy killed, I have a chain of stations and systems, lets say 3 stations on average in a system and 10 systems. That's 30 mil every hour. Only some breaks to dock up and drop goods but uh the ship doesn't need a tank when your skills up to par on ganking, just cargo expanders :D I am not an alt of the above loser(s)
|
Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 04:18:00 -
[242]
Originally by: Messoroz Edited by: Messoroz on 17/07/2010 04:09:10 Edited by: Messoroz on 17/07/2010 04:08:55
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Patri Andari Once folks figure out where and when to attack an NPC convoy, the profits will know no ends!
I'm not sure that ganking convoys for half the hourly profit of running level 4s is going to be a particularly popular career path.
I must say, though, that I admire your stamina. You are working/posting really hard to try to depress prices with the slenderest backing for your "arguments". It obviously means a lot to you that prices go down. How many of each of these items are you hoping to pick up and what is your target price?
I make around 1 mil per convoy killed, I have a chain of stations and systems, lets say 3 stations on average in a system and 10 systems. That's 30 mil every hour. Only some breaks to dock up and drop goods but uh the ship doesn't need a tank when your skills up to par on ganking, just cargo expanders :D I am not an alt of the above loser(s)
Is this better Goon guy?
P.S. who are you calling a looser alt of mine! (roll with it son, i'll make it worth your while)
Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
Cobalt Sixty
Caldari Intercision
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 06:14:00 -
[243]
Edited by: Cobalt Sixty on 17/07/2010 06:14:44
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Patri Andari Once folks figure out where and when to attack an NPC convoy, the profits will know no ends!
I'm not sure that ganking convoys for half the hourly profit of running level 4s is going to be a particularly popular career path.
I must say, though, that I admire your stamina. You are working/posting really hard to try to depress prices with the slenderest backing for your "arguments". It obviously means a lot to you that prices go down. How many of each of these items are you hoping to pick up and what is your target price?
Since I first saw mention by this guy (Patri) of the convoys I've had a fairly new Alt with a Frigate and Hauler combo hitting Caldari and Amarr convoys in Caldari space to check the numbers.
I've seen nothing so far to indicate the success he hints at, but as I don't think I'm using the same equipment this isn't exactly a scientific study. Even so, certain reports do appear to have been wildly inflated.
I don't see these convoys as having any sort of real long term impact on PI but this is just my opinion. They do seem like a good alternative for new players who tired quickly of Level I missions and want something more interactive from PvE.
|
Dr Nefarius
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 07:14:00 -
[244]
I've given the NPC haulers a go myself, and the profit levels are just pitiful. Highly unlikely people will pick it up as a means to make isk with current PI prices, perhaps if prices spike x3 (which I find unlikely).
There is however still planetary vehicles that will be affected by the drops from enemies abound (1000 units IIRC). It's a P3 with no other role then building P4 for POS production, so demand could possibly be completely met just by theese drops.
|
Carthus Sondale
Gallente Power and Water
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 07:39:00 -
[245]
I've been toying around with nuking NPC haulers for profit, and while it's true you can make a few million off it, L4 missions are still a lot less risky and more profitable. In the time it took me to find, locate, kill, and pick up loot (with a hauler alt) from the guys, I could've made enough cash to buy three times as much as I got.
|
ZeJesus
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 08:29:00 -
[246]
Originally by: Dr Nefarius I've given the NPC haulers a go myself, and the profit levels are just pitiful. Highly unlikely people will pick it up as a means to make isk with current PI prices, perhaps if prices spike x3 (which I find unlikely).
There is however still planetary vehicles that will be affected by the drops from enemies abound (1000 units IIRC). It's a P3 with no other role then building P4 for POS production, so demand could possibly be completely met just by theese drops.
Which could also lead to lower P2 demand ofc.
CE will be buried in a few weeks. We're looking at perhaps 1500 ISK / CE at best.
|
Thawed Corpse
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 08:41:00 -
[247]
Okay, I just sold most all of my PI stuff. The writing was on the wall. I bought a lot from the npcs. Then I started stockpiling P1s, P2s, and a bit of P3s, only to see the prices fall on everything. Every now and then something would rise in price, and then fall again two days later. It is pretty clear where everything is heading.
This will keep up until everyone heads for the exits, and people actually stop doing PI, since it is paying so little. Once that finally happens it will be time to buy again. That time is probably 2 months away.
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 08:58:00 -
[248]
I do not agree that prices fell on everything providing just 2 examples: 1day ago gs-7k each buy orders coolant 7k each buy orders, today gs 8.6, coolant 7.4 Daily bashing may lower prices a bit but longterm the daily5 and 20 avg are still trending up. knowledge is power |
Synth Elleta
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 11:02:00 -
[249]
Guidance systems are actually increasing in price again in Jita.
Most PI goods have hit their 20 day moving average and bounced off it, a bullish sign that the overall trend will continue.
The trend is your friend folks. Markets very rarely go straight up, just ride the waves to the top.
|
IceFyre S18
Zulu Labs Zulu People
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 11:06:00 -
[250]
BUY *** BUY *** BUY *** BUY *** BUY One that got last in the train is jackass! BUY BUUUUY BUY !!!
|
|
Cheque Please
Hot Like Mexico
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 14:08:00 -
[251]
*flops his big, throbbing mechanical part on the table*
Hey guys, who wants to compare the size of their, ah... stockpile?
This thread is full of bruised egos and fear mongers. The sky is not falling because of convoys, chicken little. No rational person is going to sit there and farm 70 robotics per hour when they can make far better isk for their time elsewhere.
The only way prices for PI goods will continue to fall is if industrialist demand dries up. It could very well happen. Right now, people keep basing their cost scales on the current price of basic PI extracted materials like Noble Metal, Heavy Metal, etc. -- all of which, we must remember, are not set in stone. Most of the higher P3 and P4 stuff is produced at a loss atm, hence this speculative market. Without high demand, what's to say PI won't adjust downward?... especially when considering new factors like macroers or, hell, even convoys if they're sooo big a deal.
Plus, the pos market (major demand) is volatile with prices still crashing since Tyrannis. Some items like Cynosural System Jammers, if you were to produce atm, would be a 40m loss.
Right now, if I had to take a guess (I'm not a manufacturer), the smart industrialists are still burning through their own component stockpiles. Either they bought loads of stuff early at NPC prices or they do PI themselves; whatever the case, both will be exhausted -- one from consumption, the other from... well, exhaustion. Then we'll see how PI prices hold up.
My guess is that they rise as casual PI'ers get bored and stockpiles get sold off, but not nearly as high as some people suggest.
Someone start a major war; get that sleepy pos market moving!
--- WORMHOLE SERVICE RL Meeting w/ Chribba
|
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 14:34:00 -
[252]
Originally by: Patri Andari
You're right. I suck at this propoganda thing. I could learn a lot from Goons. You guys recruiting?
we're always recruiting, just contract all your stuff to me so I can inspect it to make sure you're not a spy
|
Maria Yumeno
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 16:16:00 -
[253]
Originally by: Weaselior
Originally by: Patri Andari
You're right. I suck at this propoganda thing. I could learn a lot from Goons. You guys recruiting?
we're always recruiting, just contract all your stuff to me so I can inspect it to make sure you're not a spy
I have 7m and a badger, can i join?
|
Messoroz
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 17:43:00 -
[254]
Originally by: Carthus Sondale I've been toying around with nuking NPC haulers for profit, and while it's true you can make a few million off it, L4 missions are still a lot less risky and more profitable. In the time it took me to find, locate, kill, and pick up loot (with a hauler alt) from the guys, I could've made enough cash to buy three times as much as I got.
Risky? Are you trying to attack the haulers in a Freighter? I can take them all down in a velator with less then 50% damage in shield. Also hauler alt is fail, a battle badger can take them down no problem :D
|
Ari Chu
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 17:49:00 -
[255]
Edited by: Ari Chu on 17/07/2010 17:51:41 Edited by: Ari Chu on 17/07/2010 17:50:47 Edited by: Ari Chu on 17/07/2010 17:49:52 Edited by: Ari Chu on 17/07/2010 17:49:23
Originally by: Emnity Preston Who is to say the economy in Dust will operate on anything like the scales in eve itself?
If your colony cost 10mil to install and produces around 30mil per month (for example) that could be pretty minor space bucks, but pretty major mercenary soldier grunt bucks. Rifles, Grenades and tanks etc could be in the 100-25k boundary in dust itself and maybe a whole band could be hired for 1.5mil per hit etc. Until the scales are unleashed/revealed it will be hard to establish how exactly it integrates, but I'm definitely convinced we dont have the whole picture to speculate on.
Forgetting the first three months, when Dust will be as popular as it is ever likely to be... Here are the questions:
== How long will it take to complete a "mission", including prep time? == How many Mercs will be involved in such a "mission", on average? == How many missions will the average Merc player complete per day?
Let's pretend that the numbers are: 10k daily players, Gangs usually run 25 people, and each player will average one mission per day. That means 400 missions per day total.
If the EVE cost to hire a merc gang was only 5mil - that's a total of 2bil being spent to grief carebears per day... Don't you think that you'd easily be able to find 200 people that are willing to chip in 10mil per day to grief PI colonies? I'm betting the answer is, "easily".
For this reason, the price to hire mercs will be higher than 5 mil.. simply because demand is going to be higher, regardless of what the "cost of living" is to a DUST merc.
Realistically, I expect that DUST equipment will be produced by EVE players and sold to DUST players. This would ensure that whatever the final wages paid to the mercs, it would be balanced by the costs associated with being a merc. ---
"The Galaxy is only as big as you make it." - presumably Eve Game Designers. |
Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 19:12:00 -
[256]
Originally by: Ari Chu Realistically, I expect that DUST equipment will be produced by EVE players and sold to DUST players. This would ensure that whatever the final wages paid to the mercs, it would be balanced by the costs associated with being a merc.
The expense will likely be micro-transactions (for skill upgrades) through PLEX derived DUST currency.
|
Thawed Corpse
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 19:46:00 -
[257]
Originally by: Grozen I do not agree that prices fell on everything providing just 2 examples: 1day ago gs-7k each buy orders coolant 7k each buy orders, today gs 8.6, coolant 7.4 Daily bashing may lower prices a bit but longterm the daily5 and 20 avg are still trending up.
Today I'm looking at 5-day moving averages for processed materials (P1s) and 2 were up, the vast majority were down and one or two might have been about even. These lower prices will slowly work their way up the processed goods ladder lowering all prices.
Looking at the P2s, they were admittedly more positive than negative, but that is surely because many people are starting to actually look at their spreadsheets, they quit making these things at a loss, and so there are now shortages. These prices while important do not give the full picture. P2s are still a mixed bag.
Looking at P3s, there are 13 up and 8 down in their 5-day averages, also a good sign. The only problem is that the P3s that rely upon components which were npc sold are the ones that are up, while the P3s that rely upon "player produced" ingredients are edging down. Long term this means that all the prices will head up once the npc stuff is mostly gone, and this in turn will raise the P1 prices. But short term, the lowering of prices on those P3s derived mostly from "player produced" components is troubling.
For now, as long as the basket of P1 prices is falling, you better look out below. I'd recommend a strong buy on everything, once the P1 basket rises for over a week.
|
Sephiroth CloneIIV
Section 8 Industries Looney Toons.
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 21:16:00 -
[258]
Thanks for crashing the guidance system market you schmuucks (whoever you are) It was at 10k and going to 15k, all was good and it was going to rise to 30k, but nooooo, you had to all sell out at once for a big payout. Signature removed for having inappropriate content. Zymurgist |
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 21:30:00 -
[259]
Lol why so serious?Its useless to delay the inevitable.Its better for gs to get crashed as hard as possible so we can flush out every bit of gs in the stockpiles. knowledge is power |
Sephiroth CloneIIV
Section 8 Industries Looney Toons.
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 21:44:00 -
[260]
Never! I'm holding on to mine forever that I bought at 300 per unit... until price reaches 30k,..... or 15k. Signature removed for having inappropriate content. Zymurgist |
|
MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
|
Posted - 2010.07.17 22:21:00 -
[261]
Nice. Unfortunatly for any price increase any should wait for my stash to sell first. Greed is not strong here, 2-7x profit is just fine, and the stash is huge.
Oh, and it was not me bombing the Mech Parts 5 min ago.
|
Thawed Corpse
|
Posted - 2010.07.18 00:20:00 -
[262]
Edited by: Thawed Corpse on 18/07/2010 00:23:52 Another big sell on GS. Price down to 7300. >_< tsk tsk tsk. That is no way to make hugez profits.
If there are really a trillion isk worth of GS out there, someone just lost over 200B.
|
IceFyre S18
Zulu Labs Zulu People
|
Posted - 2010.07.18 00:48:00 -
[263]
I think, according on projected prices of all NPC stockpiled goods, there is not such isk in whole EVE to buy them. So, someone (usually bigger group of suckers) will suck the lolyhop short. Yeah, I sense greed strong here.
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.07.18 08:54:00 -
[264]
If it ever falls down to 1.5k i'm gonna get truckload more however i don't see that happening. knowledge is power |
MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
|
Posted - 2010.07.18 13:15:00 -
[265]
Good. Just put couple of millions very underpriced Mechanical parts on sell. Quick, buy them all, it's a huge profit for you. If all goes well, I'll put more.
Let's see if your words are true, or you all are grannyes with big mouth and strong words.
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.07.18 19:26:00 -
[266]
Originally by: MMarlon Good. Just put couple of millions very underpriced Mechanical parts on sell. Quick, buy them all, it's a huge profit for you. If all goes well, I'll put more.
Let's see if your words are true, or you all are grannyes with big mouth and strong words.
M parts have nothing to do with gs.Mp is p2 while gs is p3 item get my point?Mp may have few k to grow more but gs has potential to go to 60k. knowledge is power |
MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
|
Posted - 2010.07.18 19:36:00 -
[267]
GS is under way too. Just used this thread as general announcement for all very underpriced PI for great potential for profit.
|
Thawed Corpse
|
Posted - 2010.07.19 07:20:00 -
[268]
Edited by: Thawed Corpse on 19/07/2010 07:24:03
Originally by: MMarlon GS is under way too. Just used this thread as general announcement for all very underpriced PI for great potential for profit.
Edit: pardon, I see this was posted about 12 hours ago, so I may have missed my selling opportunity, before some other carebear jumped in ahead of me to sell.
Yesterday they fell to 7300 (down day) and today, right now, I see the price at 7150 (down day) so I'm not quite sure how that translates into "under way" unless that is same thing as "under water" or something like that.
Looks like me and a few other noobs to the market who cannot see past the price may have to bail out and sell. GS were my best bet to rise, since they were the lowest price P3... but perhaps 1 trillion isk worth does spoil the market for years.
Before I sell, could someone please manipulate the GS market upward? A few hundred million spent can probably create many billions in paper value, and give me the chance to dump my load of GS for a bit more.
|
Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries
|
Posted - 2010.07.19 07:45:00 -
[269]
Originally by: Thawed Corpse Before I sell, could someone please manipulate the GS market upward? A few hundred million spent can probably create many billions in paper value, and give me the chance to dump my load of GS for a bit more.
If you buy up my superconductors I'll be happy to reinvest in GS.
|
MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
|
Posted - 2010.07.19 07:47:00 -
[270]
Under way is like waiting to be haul to Jita. NPC Pi stuff is overpriced, everybody have it, consumption is minimal. All this large mouth push-ups alts are on the selling side, begging to sell their poisoned Pi goods. Liquidity on buy side of all NPC goods is horror at best, on sell side you have billions and billions.
All this tells me that it is a balon, nice story with no real value inside.
So I choose to sell, now when the greed is strong so I can sell in peace very underpriced Pi tulips.
|
|
Neighbourhood Spiderman
Daily Bugle
|
Posted - 2010.07.19 09:26:00 -
[271]
Originally by: MMarlon
...So I choose to sell, now when the greed is strong so I can sell in peace very underpriced Pi tulips.
Greetings and Salutations
Those tulips are illegal on 65,000 planets you must relinquish them to me know or I will be forced to inform CoNcOrD on you fine sir and that is something I would rather not have to do.
Sincerely
Your Friendly Neighbourhood Spiderman |
IceFyre S18
Zulu Labs Zulu People
|
Posted - 2010.07.19 10:15:00 -
[272]
And this toon is ready to invest huge isk in underpriced Pi, delivered to Jita. Mail price and amount please. Both are relevant.
|
Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries
|
Posted - 2010.07.19 10:59:00 -
[273]
Originally by: MMarlon Liquidity on buy side of all NPC goods is horror at best, on sell side you have billions and billions.
Liquidity is a ***** to maintain when you're looking at a longterm price increase of 50x+ on your initial investment.
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 14:01:00 -
[274]
hhmm 6.4k it seems theres way more gs in stock then anticipated my rating is now STRONG SELL. knowledge is power |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 14:27:00 -
[275]
Edited by: Weaselior on 20/07/2010 14:29:20 could you stop panicking and dumping right after I spend my liquid isk
in actual news: I've noticed a rebound in some p4 prices (but not all: mostly broadcast nodes and self-harmonizing power cores which is odd), I wonder if someone's started actually building things instead of just relying on the loot from the cynojammer exploit
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 14:38:00 -
[276]
building pi things atm is total loss... knowledge is power |
Cheque Please
Hot Like Mexico
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 16:40:00 -
[277]
Edited by: Cheque Please on 20/07/2010 16:42:08 Edited by: Cheque Please on 20/07/2010 16:41:08
Originally by: Grozen building pi things atm is total loss...
Not if you're the manufacturer at the end of the pi line. There are a couple of items that are profitable.
Which is why you see a few people buying the p4 stuff (broadcast nodes, etc) and subsequently the prices for those are crawling upwards.
No one wants to actually be a link in the chain, building up to the p4, because that is indeed still a big loss. --- WORMHOLE SERVICE RL Meeting w/ Chribba
|
SpyAlt122
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 17:17:00 -
[278]
I can only imagine the angry faces when they see CE/Robotics/GS prices on the market.
You should not have stocked up.
|
JitaPriceChecker2
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 18:17:00 -
[279]
Posting in Guidance Systems drops from mission and never go up in price thread.
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 18:19:00 -
[280]
Originally by: SpyAlt122 I can only imagine the angry faces when they see CE/Robotics/GS prices on the market.
You should not have stocked up.
i have begin to realise my "mistake" and selling everything. knowledge is power |
|
IceFyre S18
Zulu Labs Zulu People
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 20:24:00 -
[281]
Madness indeed. You did good, the majority of goods is in big isk players now, will create shortages and dumpings to milk market sheeps. Almost half of formerly known as npc goods is actually better to build than to buy. But GS, erm, too much stockpiled. Our whole alliance consume less than 2.000 per day. Good luck on holders.
|
Supervisor Grammel
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 20:47:00 -
[282]
Originally by: IceFyre S18 Madness indeed. You did good, the majority of goods is in big isk players now, will create shortages and dumpings to milk market sheeps. Almost half of formerly known as npc goods is actually better to build than to buy. But GS, erm, too much stockpiled. Our whole alliance consume less than 2.000 per day. Good luck on holders.
Oh, I'm sure they'll eventually make profit. Maybe in 2-to-3 years.
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 20:53:00 -
[283]
someone just popped up 660k buy order nice Guess i will hold lil more. knowledge is power |
SpyAlt122
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 20:57:00 -
[284]
Edited by: SpyAlt122 on 20/07/2010 20:57:43
Originally by: Grozen someone just popped up 660k buy order nice Guess i will hold lil more.
Which is prolly a quarter of that. With the right skill.
|
Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 21:06:00 -
[285]
Originally by: SpyAlt122 Edited by: SpyAlt122 on 20/07/2010 20:57:43
Originally by: Grozen someone just popped up 660k buy order nice Guess i will hold lil more.
Which is prolly a quarter of that. With the right skill.
This.
Someone with a vested interest in keeping the price up no doubt. Margin Trading V FTW!
Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 21:08:00 -
[286]
doubt its margin trading because i sold him over 60k. knowledge is power |
Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 21:12:00 -
[287]
Edited by: Patri Andari on 20/07/2010 21:12:57 Silly double post!
Patri
I'll Roshambo you for that Titan |
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 21:16:00 -
[288]
as i said up its not fake order and the guy is member of goon fleet invenst banking knowledge is power |
Kwaya
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 21:20:00 -
[289]
Originally by: Grozen as i said up its not fake order and the guy is member of goon fleet invenst banking
And he probably wants to build 100k robotics. Big deal. He's not investing.
|
Cheque Please
Hot Like Mexico
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 21:31:00 -
[290]
Edited by: Cheque Please on 20/07/2010 21:31:05 Sounds like someone accidentally a whole period with the whole 660k thing. --- WORMHOLE SERVICE RL Meeting w/ Chribba
|
|
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 21:34:00 -
[291]
Everything is a manipulation attempt with you people. Can't a guy just innocently carry on with business?
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 21:39:00 -
[292]
i thought you're just trading too but these guy think if i post that i probably have something fishy in mind. knowledge is power |
Ansol
Gallente Origin Synthetic Industries
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 21:41:00 -
[293]
Originally by: Cheque Please Edited by: Cheque Please on 20/07/2010 21:31:05 Sounds like someone accidentally a whole period with the whole 660k thing.
Looks like someone accidently a whole word.
The dead remember our silence, The dead remember our indifference. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 21:47:00 -
[294]
Originally by: Ansol
Originally by: Cheque Please Edited by: Cheque Please on 20/07/2010 21:31:05 Sounds like someone accidentally a whole period with the whole 660k thing.
Looks like someone accidently a whole word.
Nah its just a meme.
A dumb meme, but a meme nonetheless.
|
Ilarra
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 21:51:00 -
[295]
Originally by: corestwo Everything is a manipulation attempt with you people. Can't a guy just innocently carry on with business?
Confirming this is definitely not a small part of an overly complicated scheme to raise GS prices. Dude just wants some guidance systems.
|
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.20 21:57:00 -
[296]
Edited by: Weaselior on 20/07/2010 21:58:47 We got our guidance systems at less than a tenth of buy order prices, right now. Pretty sure we are doing alright already. I mean "only 12x return" is hardly something to cry in your beer about.
|
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 00:20:00 -
[297]
Originally by: Weaselior Edited by: Weaselior on 20/07/2010 21:58:47 We got our guidance systems at less than a tenth of buy order prices, right now. Pretty sure we are doing alright already. I mean "only 12x return" is hardly something to cry in your beer about.
I thought I would be able to afford a supercap guy, supercarrier, and 3 replacement supercarriers with my paltry initial investment, so I am crying into my 100-year-old whiskey at the thought of only being able to afford one spare instead of three.
Anyway, not worried about GS.
|
Time2Whine
|
Posted - 2010.07.21 15:44:00 -
[298]
Guidance Systems - The sadness
|
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.08.07 11:12:00 -
[299]
As the PI clickfest starts to take its toll on PI players, should we expect GS's to rise, along with other PI products?
As someone mentioned in the coolant thread, interesting times.... :)
|
Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics K162
|
Posted - 2010.08.07 17:39:00 -
[300]
short term, who knows. long term, still has another 300% to go. How long that'll take is anyone's guess ;P
|
|
EvilCheez
|
Posted - 2010.08.08 05:23:00 -
[301]
Quote: As the PI clickfest starts to take its toll on PI players, should we expect GS's to rise, along with other PI products?
No, as nobody was making them anyway.
|
Dr Nefarius
|
Posted - 2010.08.08 12:47:00 -
[302]
Originally by: EvilCheez
Quote: As the PI clickfest starts to take its toll on PI players, should we expect GS's to rise, along with other PI products?
No, as nobody was making them anyway.
Noone sane was making them
|
|
|
|
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 .. 11 :: [one page] |