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Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 0 post(s) |
IndustrialEngineer
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Posted - 2010.07.17 22:17:00 -
[1]
I had about over 20 invention jobs(covetor bpc's) completed in the POS mobile labs during the past 3 days and NONE of them was succeeded... I wonder if it's a bug or it's only because I'm the unlucky one, roughly 100m loss for nothing... :s The success rate is so different from 4 days ago, I had decent success rate back then. But now it's like absolutely 100% chance to fail, anyone else had the similar experience?
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Brock Nelson
Caldari Flux Technologies Inc SRS.
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Posted - 2010.07.17 22:21:00 -
[2]
The troll in this one is fail
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Balcura
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Posted - 2010.07.17 22:32:00 -
[3]
All the bad invention jobs in eve collected in your attempts.
FAIL
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Mrs CynoMonkey
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Posted - 2010.07.17 22:45:00 -
[4]
arggghhh all panic, quick get the CEO of ccp on the line a few failures.. OMG must die..
or do the serious
pack up, give up invention and go back to mining if you can't take a bad run get out of the business.
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IndustrialEngineer
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Posted - 2010.07.17 23:10:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Brock Nelson The troll in this one is fail
ur not sharing any experience nor solving any problems, so why don't you just shut up?
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Lupalis Longtail
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Posted - 2010.07.17 23:44:00 -
[6]
Calculate the chance on 20 * 1/4 chance failing. Assume 5000 inventors doing 20 inventions daily. How often do 20 invention fail every day?
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Athar Mu
Gallente Federal Navy Academy
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Posted - 2010.07.18 01:41:00 -
[7]
Originally by: IndustrialEngineer I had about over 20 invention jobs(covetor bpc's) completed in the POS mobile labs during the past 3 days and NONE of them was succeeded... I wonder if it's a bug or it's only because I'm the unlucky one, roughly 100m loss for nothing... :s The success rate is so different from 4 days ago, I had decent success rate back then. But now it's like absolutely 100% chance to fail, anyone else had the similar experience?
If you think it is a bug, then bug report it or petition it. Otherwise, try again.
I've done thousands upon thousands of invention jobs and I keep track of all them, and guess what? It evens out over time. You have good runs and you have bad runs. I remember getting 30 out of 30 in one go then getting 5 out of 30 in the next. But I don't complain when I get the good amounts and I just keep going if I get the bad amounts.
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Brock Nelson
Caldari Flux Technologies Inc SRS.
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Posted - 2010.07.18 01:44:00 -
[8]
Originally by: IndustrialEngineer
Originally by: Brock Nelson The troll in this one is fail
ur not sharing any experience nor solving any problems, so why don't you just shut up?
why don't YOU just shut up and read up on probability
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Bia Bri
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Posted - 2010.07.18 02:29:00 -
[9]
What some of these people are trying to say is that if you get enough people doing invention jobs, its next to inevitable that sometime people will get 20 fails in a row. This time, you were just one of the unlucky few to which it happens.
People tend to get crotchety about this questions because there's usually one of these threads in the first 3 or 4 pages of S&I threads. And no matter how often it gets asked and answered, new people will experience the situation and seek explanation. Veterans of the forums get tired of people not searching.
There's two lessons we can take away from this. For you, you've now seen what happens when you don't at least attempt to google up the answer you seek. And second, for the community at large, it might be the 379th time you've answered the same question, but its the first time the person asking has looked for the answer. Keep in in mind before getting rude.
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IndustrialEngineer
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Posted - 2010.07.18 03:01:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Brock Nelson
Originally by: IndustrialEngineer
Originally by: Brock Nelson The troll in this one is fail
ur not sharing any experience nor solving any problems, so why don't you just shut up?
why don't YOU just shut up and read up on probability
lol, I seriously suggest you shut up, of course every inventor in eve knows there's a chance to fail, and I do know the invention probability formula. If I can successfully invent one T2 bpc out of 10-15 attempts then at least I know the invention part is working properly, but over 20 jobs to fail in a row without a single success is ultra rare which you have no ideas how it happened neither! So pls stop spitting bs unless you have some proper explanations.
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IndustrialEngineer
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Posted - 2010.07.18 03:06:00 -
[11]
thanks for the explanations above, I guess invention success rate has something to do with the timing too, not just some simple probability theories. If multiple players install the job at the same time, only one or 2 may pull out the T2 bpc successfully, the rest will fail =_=
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.07.18 03:08:00 -
[12]
Originally by: IndustrialEngineer
lol, I seriously suggest you shut up,
300+ jobs a day and I'm hitting my statistical average of 48%.
Do more jobs. 20 jobs is nothing, so shut up and quit crying.
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Brock Nelson
Caldari Flux Technologies Inc SRS.
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Posted - 2010.07.18 03:17:00 -
[13]
Originally by: IndustrialEngineer I do know the invention probability formula.
I bet you do, otherwise you wouldn't be here to cry about it
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XXSketchxx
Gallente Remote Soviet Industries Important Internet Spaceship League
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Posted - 2010.07.18 03:29:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Breaker77
Do more jobs. 20 jobs is nothing, so shut up and quit crying.
qft
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Misanthra
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Posted - 2010.07.18 03:33:00 -
[15]
welcome to legalized gambling....oops eve invention. I am 1/12 for cranes (1 being the very last invention) with max copy and alot of them decryptors used. Ran some widows recently just to see how the invention gods like me...2/5. At skill level 4...1 run shotun copying used so no decryptors.
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Maria Yumeno
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Posted - 2010.07.18 05:12:00 -
[16]
Wow, i just got 5/5 t2 battleship inventions successful. Must be bugged
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IndustrialEngineer
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Posted - 2010.07.18 05:32:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Maria Yumeno Wow, i just got 5/5 t2 battleship inventions successful. Must be bugged
awww, someone just made me feel jealous in a sudden
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XXSketchxx
Gallente Remote Soviet Industries Important Internet Spaceship League
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Posted - 2010.07.18 05:35:00 -
[18]
Originally by: IndustrialEngineer
Originally by: Maria Yumeno Wow, i just got 5/5 t2 battleship inventions successful. Must be bugged
awww, someone just made me feel jealous in a sudden
you should feel stupid
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Aus Nova
hirr Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2010.07.18 05:51:00 -
[19]
Originally by: XXSketchxx
Originally by: IndustrialEngineer
Originally by: Maria Yumeno Wow, i just got 5/5 t2 battleship inventions successful. Must be bugged
awww, someone just made me feel jealous in a sudden
you should feel stupid
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Makko Gray
Gallente Nexus Aerospace Corporation The Volition Cult
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Posted - 2010.07.18 14:09:00 -
[20]
Originally by: IndustrialEngineer ...over 20 jobs to fail in a row without a single success is ultra rare...
The chance of winning the lottery in the UK is about 1 in 14 million, that's fairly rare. The chance of failing any batch 20 hulk invention attempts even with max skills is about 1 in 333.
What would be really rare would be if you'd succeeded in all invention attempts which even with max skills sits at around 1 in 938 billion.
Based on chance of success at 25.2% for any individual invention job.
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Makko Gray
Gallente Nexus Aerospace Corporation The Volition Cult
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Posted - 2010.07.18 14:17:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Makko Gray What would be really rare would be if you'd succeeded in all invention attempts which even with max skills sits at around 1 in 938 billion.
To help put that into perspective I think thats the same as winning all the UK lotto draws for the next 644 years.
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Lledrith
Ex Caminus
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Posted - 2010.07.18 21:01:00 -
[22]
if you look under Akita's postings you may find that some already had the same problem. There is a small random chance the bad luck will strike and all inventions may fail. even god can't help you in that good luck in the next round...
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Mal Lokrano
Gallente The Executives IT Alliance
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Posted - 2010.07.18 22:36:00 -
[23]
To Quote an old friend...
Originally by: Nahkep Narmelion Oh for f**k's sake.
Really take a probability course...please....or just GTFO.
I've done hundreds of invention jobs since tyrannis across several alts and shockingly the average is holding.
Really, go the f**k back to Hello Kitty Online.
Linky ____________________________________________ When going to a party with wine, women, and song. Always ascertain the vintage of the first two.
Don't bug me ingame about diplomats, I don't know wh |
Apollo Gabriel
Domini Lex Talionis Etherium Cartel
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Posted - 2010.07.19 03:01:00 -
[24]
Don't let the Trolls keep you from your goals. Don't let the trolls, keep you from your goals. |
Rashmika Clavain
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.07.19 08:53:00 -
[25]
I'd build a bridge to help you get over it but we'd just end up with more trolls living under said bridge
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Dr Lii
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Posted - 2010.07.19 09:50:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Lupalis Longtail Calculate the chance on 20 * 1/4 chance failing. Assume 5000 inventors doing 20 inventions daily. How often do 20 invention fail every day?
(0.25^20)*5000 ~= 4.58 * 10^(-9) chance of happening per day.
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Makko Gray
Gallente Nexus Aerospace Corporation The Volition Cult
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Posted - 2010.07.19 10:23:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Dr Lii
Originally by: Lupalis Longtail Calculate the chance on 20 * 1/4 chance failing. Assume 5000 inventors doing 20 inventions daily. How often do 20 invention fail every day?
(0.25^20)*5000 ~= 4.58 * 10^(-9) chance of happening per day.
That's actually the chance of all succeeding in any 20 batch run on hulks. For all failing want:
(0.748 ^ 20) * 5000 ~= 15 people per day failing all 20 attempts
In reality I think there aren't that many people with full skills trying 20% base chance invention items.
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Dr Lii
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Posted - 2010.07.19 11:21:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Makko Gray
Originally by: Dr Lii
Originally by: Lupalis Longtail Calculate the chance on 20 * 1/4 chance failing. Assume 5000 inventors doing 20 inventions daily. How often do 20 invention fail every day?
(0.25^20)*5000 ~= 4.58 * 10^(-9) chance of happening per day.
That's actually the chance of all succeeding in any 20 batch run on hulks. For all failing want:
(0.748 ^ 20) * 5000 ~= 15 people per day failing all 20 attempts
In reality I think there aren't that many people with full skills trying 20% base chance invention items.
If you read the post I answered to he explicitly said that there were a 1/4 chance of failure.
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Makko Gray
Gallente Nexus Aerospace Corporation The Volition Cult
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Posted - 2010.07.19 15:49:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Dr Lii
If you read the post I answered to he explicitly said that there were a 1/4 chance of failure.
I agree, which is why I included the original post in the quote. Just wanted to clear up the actual chances based the other assumptions.
For hulk invention: Chance of success with max skills = 25.2% Chance of failure with max skills = 74.8%
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Heimer
Minmatar Republic University
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Posted - 2010.07.19 16:41:00 -
[30]
Originally by: IndustrialEngineer thanks for the explanations above, I guess invention success rate has something to do with the timing too, not just some simple probability theories. If multiple players install the job at the same time, only one or 2 may pull out the T2 bpc successfully, the rest will fail =_=
The point is not the timing of multiple people's jobs, its just that that there are more jobs. It is plain, simple, probablity. I have been either been trolled or you are mentally challenged.
( ) <- planet (not to scale) لللللل --EhonVonnre |
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