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Hrothgar Nilsson
Black Guards Black Core Alliance
81
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Posted - 2012.07.26 21:10:00 -
[1] - Quote
So a guy I know crunched the numbers with what information is available with regards to the new "alchemy" process in producing technetium.
He arrived at the figure, that technetium production via alchemy is going to be about 5 times greater than the maximum possible production of all the current tech moons combined.
I was curious to know if anybody else has crunched the numbers, and what figures they've arrived at with regards to tech production via alchemy vis-a-vis tech production via moons. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTzA_xesrL8 |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1196
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Posted - 2012.07.26 22:19:00 -
[2] - Quote
At current stats, 10 cobalt moons are equivalent to 1 tech moon, PT-volume-wise. If there's really 50 cobalt moons for every tech moon (so, about ~20k cobalt moons for ~400 tech moons), then yeah, sure, why not, theoretically possible.
But you'd probably hit the fuel cost issue faster than anything else, and alchemy is annoying to do compared to a normal reaction, so people would expect more profit from it, and so on and so forth.
Even if cobalt would be considered practically worthless and platinum stay at the pre-speculation level, with fuel blocks getting slightly cheaper, you're still looking at tech selling at ~50k ISK minimum, most likely noticeably higher (75k or thereabouts). Of course, that's before further changes, whenever they'd come. http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T T2 BPO poll : https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=114789 |
King Aires
Coffee Sipper's Club Biggby Coffee Fan Club
20
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Posted - 2012.07.26 22:27:00 -
[3] - Quote
Well there is as many cobalt moons in low sec Aridia as there is Tech moons in the entire control of OTEC... I would esitmate around 4000 cobalt moons are out there, some of which are in OTEC hands as well. |
Pipa Porto
512
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Posted - 2012.07.27 03:32:00 -
[4] - Quote
King Aires wrote:Well there is as many cobalt moons in low sec Aridia as there is Tech moons in the entire control of OTEC... I would esitmate around 4000 cobalt moons are out there, some of which are in OTEC hands as well.
I think there's like 300 Tech Moons, so at most, if all the Cobalt in all the world went to producing PT, it would double the production of PT. EvE: Everyone vs Everyone |
King Aires
Coffee Sipper's Club Biggby Coffee Fan Club
20
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Posted - 2012.07.27 11:49:00 -
[5] - Quote
Pipa Porto wrote:King Aires wrote:Well there is as many cobalt moons in low sec Aridia as there is Tech moons in the entire control of OTEC... I would esitmate around 4000 cobalt moons are out there, some of which are in OTEC hands as well. I think there's like 300 Tech Moons, so at most, if all the Cobalt in all the world went to producing PT, it would double the production of PT.
Charted and documented, confirmed and posted there are 75 In Venal alone. We know of around 300 that have already been documented... But ok, I will play ball.
So there is 300 Tech moons, and we will have an effective increase of say 150-200 worth of production of Platinum tech. So what you are saying is if the market holds 300 tech moons to 150k tech, then what will the crash be at a 60% increase in usable materials?
You basically are bolstering my arguement that the number of Cobalt moons is sufficient to effect the market in a serious way. I agree with Akita, there is no way it will be a 5x increase, so OP was way off with his info.
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Pipa Porto
526
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Posted - 2012.07.27 12:14:00 -
[6] - Quote
King Aires wrote:Pipa Porto wrote:King Aires wrote:Well there is as many cobalt moons in low sec Aridia as there is Tech moons in the entire control of OTEC... I would esitmate around 4000 cobalt moons are out there, some of which are in OTEC hands as well. I think there's like 300 Tech Moons, so at most, if all the Cobalt in all the world went to producing PT, it would double the production of PT. Charted and documented, confirmed and posted there are 75 In Venal alone. We know of around 300 that have already been documented... But ok, I will play ball. So there is 300 Tech moons, and we will have an effective increase of say 150-200 worth of production of Platinum tech. So what you are saying is if the market holds 300 tech moons to 150k tech, then what will the crash be at a 60% increase in usable materials? You basically are bolstering my arguement that the number of Cobalt moons is sufficient to effect the market in a serious way. I agree with Akita, there is no way it will be a 5x increase, so OP was way off with his info.
I wasn't necessarily disagreeing with you. I was just talking about the fact that it can't be a 5x increase. It could ~double the PT supply at most.
But, Cobalt has competing uses in Crystallite alloy, and POS fuel is a huge component of any Alchemied reaction, so I don't think anywhere near all the Cobalt will be used to make PT.
Tech can't quit being reacted into PT when PT prices drop. Alchemists will drop out when it drops.
Alchemy costs 40k Isk/unit of PT in fuel (assuming 2 Simple reactors/POS), 10(Cobalt), and 2(Platinum). At the moment, that works out to 48200 ISK/unit of PT. Platinum Techtite is selling for 65k unit.
That works out to a 340k Isk profit/hr, or 228m Isk profit/month. That's barely worth it (especially since the Plat+Tech reaction makes a much larger profit on the same POS).
If PT drops to say 50k ISK/unit (36k Isk/hr 24m Isk/month to alchemists), Tech would be capped at about 94k ISK/unit. Tech is currently at ...
drumroll please...
94,297 ISK/unit.
The demand for Tech is relatively inelastic, which is why a price fixing cartel worked so well. No need to reduce supply when people will pay twice the price. EvE: Everyone vs Everyone
-RubyPorto |
Ravenclaw2kk
Blue Republic RvB - BLUE Republic
8
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Posted - 2012.07.27 13:35:00 -
[7] - Quote
Pipa Porto wrote:
The demand for Tech is relatively inelastic, which is why a price fixing cartel worked so well. No need to reduce supply when people will pay twice the price.
How do you figure that? |
Pipa Porto
531
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Posted - 2012.07.27 13:37:00 -
[8] - Quote
Ravenclaw2kk wrote:Pipa Porto wrote:
The demand for Tech is relatively inelastic, which is why a price fixing cartel worked so well. No need to reduce supply when people will pay twice the price.
How do you figure that?
Volume traded didn't significantly change when Tech prices increased. EvE: Everyone vs Everyone
-RubyPorto |
EvilweaselSA
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
255
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Posted - 2012.07.27 15:00:00 -
[9] - Quote
Akita T wrote: Even if cobalt would be considered practically worthless and platinum would hover at around pre-speculation level, with fuel blocks getting slightly cheaper due to safer mining, you're still looking at tech selling at least at around ~50k ISK, most likely noticeably higher (75k or thereabouts).
this set of assumptions caps the tech price at 40k |
King Aires
Coffee Sipper's Club Biggby Coffee Fan Club
20
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Posted - 2012.07.27 16:46:00 -
[10] - Quote
Pipa Porto wrote:Ravenclaw2kk wrote:Pipa Porto wrote:
The demand for Tech is relatively inelastic, which is why a price fixing cartel worked so well. No need to reduce supply when people will pay twice the price.
How do you figure that? Volume traded didn't significantly change when Tech prices increased.
It is also interesting to note that Tech in and of itself is worthless, it is only valuable to the game as a combined product with platinum. My speculation is that the very entrepreneurial people who buy tech do so to make Plat-Tech. These are the same people who will be more than happy to abandon buying the overpriced and manipulated Tech on the market and instead set up production of their end goal.
So yes, the Tech market WAS inelastic, however there is a whole new world out there for the former buyers of Tech to bypass the market all together, or at least enough to make Tech very elastic. That is going to be the largest impact on the market, the idea that they now have a choice.
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Pipa Porto
535
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Posted - 2012.07.27 17:01:00 -
[11] - Quote
King Aires wrote:Pipa Porto wrote:Ravenclaw2kk wrote:Pipa Porto wrote:
The demand for Tech is relatively inelastic, which is why a price fixing cartel worked so well. No need to reduce supply when people will pay twice the price.
How do you figure that? Volume traded didn't significantly change when Tech prices increased. It is also interesting to note that Tech in and of itself is worthless, it is only valuable to the game as a combined product with platinum. My speculation is that the very entrepreneurial people who buy tech do so to make Plat-Tech. These are the same people who will be more than happy to abandon buying the overpriced and manipulated Tech on the market and instead set up production of their end goal. So yes, the Tech market WAS inelastic, however there is a whole new world out there for the former buyers of Tech to bypass the market all together, or at least enough to make Tech very elastic. That is going to be the largest impact on the market, the idea that they now have a choice.
Pipa Porto wrote:Tech can't quit being reacted into PT when PT prices drop. Alchemists will drop out when it drops.
Alchemy costs 40k Isk/unit of PT in fuel (assuming 2 Simple reactors/POS), 10(Cobalt), and 2(Platinum). At the moment, that works out to 48200 ISK/unit of PT. Platinum Techtite is selling for 65k unit.
That works out to a 340k Isk profit/hr, or 228m Isk profit/month. That's barely worth it (especially since the Plat+Tech reaction makes a much larger profit on the same POS).
If PT drops to say 50k ISK/unit (36k Isk/hr 24m Isk/month to alchemists), Tech would be capped at about 94k ISK/unit. Tech is currently at ...
drumroll please...
94,297 ISK/unit.
The impact's already been felt. PT is lagging behind a little, but it'll catch up. Not a single unit of PT has been made using Cobalt. EvE: Everyone vs Everyone
-RubyPorto |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1196
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Posted - 2012.07.27 17:44:00 -
[12] - Quote
EvilweaselSA wrote:Akita T wrote:[...]alchemy is annoying to do compared to a normal reaction, so people would expect more profit from it[...] Even if cobalt would be considered practically worthless and platinum would hover at around pre-speculation level, with fuel blocks getting slightly cheaper due to safer mining, you're still looking at tech selling at least at around ~50k ISK, most likely noticeably higher (75k or thereabouts). this set of assumptions caps the tech price at 40k Only if you also assume T2 item usage will remain basically unaffected by the reduction in price of T2 goods, which is an assumption I don't like the betting odds for. Less elastic demand when prices go up, sure, but I doubt the assumption of reversibility (still not very elastic when prices go down) is feasible. The rest of the assumption are also quite close to "worst case scenario for tech considering just the published changes".
But yes, you are technically correct, for a short while, tech could realistically hit and hover around the lowest 40k price point even without any additional changes. I would also however have to point out that it's unlikely for tech to remain there absent any other additional changes to make it less needed. http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T T2 BPO poll : https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=114789 |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
599
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Posted - 2012.07.27 17:52:00 -
[13] - Quote
Akita T wrote: I would also however have to point out that it's unlikely for tech to remain there absent any other additional changes to make it less needed.
There is a phase two coming after this and while we know nothing about it, Fozzie did say that his intent (which he's failing miserably at but that's another story) is to have Tech remain the best moon mineral (just by not as large a margin) until then. This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.
fofofo |
Claire Voyant
135
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Posted - 2012.07.27 20:38:00 -
[14] - Quote
You forgot "lovingly crafted." |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1196
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Posted - 2012.07.27 21:00:00 -
[15] - Quote
corestwo wrote:There is a phase two coming after this and while we know nothing about it, Fozzie did say that his intent (which he's failing miserably at but that's another story) is to have Tech remain the best moon mineral (just by not as large a margin) until then. Yeah, sure, we know another change is coming... eventually. Then again we already knew technetium alchemy should have been coming since, oh, at least two years ago, and look how long it took them to finally decide to do something as simple as adding a few new alchemy reactions. I shudder to think how long it would take until phase two, and what that phase two actually will be. For all we know, phase two could be half a year or even a full year away, if not longer... and maybe not even have the desired effect when it eventually shows up. http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T T2 BPO poll : https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=114789 |
EvilweaselSA
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
274
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Posted - 2012.07.28 16:23:00 -
[16] - Quote
My post here: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1709104#post1709104
explains why there's a hard cap on the number of moons that can be alchemized. Essentially, if you alchemize too much technetium it's no longer the bottleneck and it becomes worthless. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1728
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Posted - 2012.07.28 17:22:00 -
[17] - Quote
It always amazes me how much effort some players pour in their game. Not even paid employees would do that much.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1198
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Posted - 2012.07.28 21:19:00 -
[18] - Quote
While generally correct early on, you didn't go "deep enough" with it a bit later on ;) Neodymium also has an alchemy reaction, and that alchemy reaction has a better ratio (for now) compared to technetium (by a factor of two), but that replacement is Platinum, which has other uses too. If push comes to shove and alchemy becomes somewhat profitable for either/both Tech and Neod, I expect both to hover pretty close in price to eachother and Platinum to maybe go up a bit more again. Also, you somewhat distort (but for the short run, you are sadly quite accurate) how the profitability (or lack thereof) of alchemy might evolve in time, but that's just nitpicking, so no need to get into it very much.
TL;DR - generally accurate enough, but think of Neodymium alchemy too. http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T T2 BPO poll : https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=114789 |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
599
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Posted - 2012.07.28 22:18:00 -
[19] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:It always amazes me how much effort some players pour in their game. Not even paid employees would do that much.
his post there isnt any longer than some of your posts on chart voodoo This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.
fofofo |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1732
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Posted - 2012.07.29 04:30:00 -
[20] - Quote
corestwo wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:It always amazes me how much effort some players pour in their game. Not even paid employees would do that much. his post there isnt any longer than some of your posts on chart voodoo. in fact, it's a good deal shorter.
Unless I am mistaken, he is not going to live in RL off the long worked things he posts.
I mean, I have it easy as I just apply and recycle the same concepts I use every day. On the contrary, I don't think he's a RL space alliance CFO doing the same job there and in EvE.
.... or is he? Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
599
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Posted - 2012.07.29 04:51:00 -
[21] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:corestwo wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:It always amazes me how much effort some players pour in their game. Not even paid employees would do that much. his post there isnt any longer than some of your posts on chart voodoo. in fact, it's a good deal shorter. Unless I am mistaken, he is not going to live in RL off the long worked things he posts. I mean, I have it easy as I just apply and recycle the same concepts I use every day. On the contrary, I don't think he's a RL space alliance CFO doing the same job there and in EvE. .... or is he? the other difference is that weaselior is actually, y'know, fluent in english. combine that with the fact that we had discussed the topic previously on jabber, and it probably didn't take more than 15 minutes for him to write it up. This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.
fofofo |
EvilweaselSA
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
283
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Posted - 2012.07.29 15:06:00 -
[22] - Quote
writing up complex stuff so people understand it easily is my job
knowing how all that works is easy though: all of the info was already in my head it was just a matter of structuring it so it was readable |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1738
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Posted - 2012.07.29 16:14:00 -
[23] - Quote
EvilweaselSA wrote:writing up complex stuff so people understand it easily is my job
knowing how all that works is easy though: all of the info was already in my head it was just a matter of structuring it so it was readable
Thank you for the clarification.
I wish I could hire you to sort the complex stuff I got in my head Not sure a lone man could do it though. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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Angsty Teenager
58
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Posted - 2012.07.29 18:35:00 -
[24] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:EvilweaselSA wrote:writing up complex stuff so people understand it easily is my job
knowing how all that works is easy though: all of the info was already in my head it was just a matter of structuring it so it was readable Thank you for the clarification. I wish I could hire you to sort the complex stuff I got in my head Not sure a lone man could do it though.
LOL, somebody is full of himself... |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1744
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Posted - 2012.07.30 06:55:00 -
[25] - Quote
Angsty Teenager wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:EvilweaselSA wrote:writing up complex stuff so people understand it easily is my job
knowing how all that works is easy though: all of the info was already in my head it was just a matter of structuring it so it was readable Thank you for the clarification. I wish I could hire you to sort the complex stuff I got in my head Not sure a lone man could do it though. LOL, somebody is full of himself...
It was ironic humor made on myself, in case it was not clear.
If you could see the tonnes of weird alien stuff floating in my head you'd get the gag at a glance. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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Skippermonkey
Tactical Knightmare
1203
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Posted - 2012.07.30 11:27:00 -
[26] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:EvilweaselSA wrote:writing up complex stuff so people understand it easily is my job
knowing how all that works is easy though: all of the info was already in my head it was just a matter of structuring it so it was readable Thank you for the clarification. I wish I could hire you to sort the complex stuff I got in my head Not sure a lone man could do it though. http://www.therapyworld.net/ My homeboys tried to warn me But that butt you got makes me so horny |
MushroomMushroom
Consolidated Sprocket
32
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Posted - 2012.08.01 14:07:00 -
[27] - Quote
You guys are off on the minimum price floor on alchemy produced Platinum Technite. If a party were interested in running reactor POS for the sake of greifing OTEC or an individual OTEC member, and was willing to run reactors at a break even level, the floor for Platinum Technite is below 19,000 isk/unit. (This presumes that the cobalt speculation bubble bursts and that you have cobalt moons you wouldn't otherwise mine, it allows for a rise in platinum to 4000, and uses current fuel prices)
That would reduce tech moon income 75%, which may motivate some to push the price as low as they can. |
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