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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 06:08:00 -
[1]
If you want to know what is happening to technetium read this thread. Nanotransistors
I explained why it was going to happen in there in detail a day or two before the price rise that you mentioned.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 09:37:00 -
[2]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 09:43:34
Originally by: Inbrainsane
Open eve, load your jita market char open tech market, price history, one year.
Thanks for your negativity.
You evidently haven't read the thread. You also haven't seen my old stock piles of technetium and tech product lines that where purchased before Atika T published his spreadsheets, and you also haven't seen that I'm one of the few that haven't sold off his stocks yet.
The only reason I published in that thread was basically a Rant because I am sick of waiting so long for the price to rise to what it should be. Builders and it seems most traders are stupid and dont think about things. Read the thread next time.
edit I should say that my post also was at a time tech had just risen a heap and people like Atika T and others where starting to suggest it was going to stay at 60k isk a unit for a while. That was what cause my Rant and subsequent information.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 11:03:00 -
[3]
That's a better question. Its never been about will it go up. Its always been around when will it go up.
Short term it is really hard to say. It isn't something I am really confident on predicting as it is easy for 2 or 3 out of major influences to change in combinations that will either allow for continued increase or prevent it in the short term. Long term its much easier to answer as even Inbrainsane let us all know. :)
That said. Let me have a rough guess. If there are any investors left that have spare isk it is looking more and more likely that one of them will say what the hell and buyout the remaining sell orders and set a price at 120k+. Considering the large increase over the current months and the nano/fullerides price and now more important microprocessor price it will most likely stay there.
At that price anyone with stock will be trying to sell some and it should finally start a downward trend as people battle hard for sales (short term). The delay in people wanting to actually buy after the 50% increase in region value jump to 120k etc will cause a build up of sell orders which will help with a short term drop. Also helped along by 3 days of well below daily sales in jita while the regional % "above regional price" drops to a more happier value. People are scared of paying to much above the region value and hence cause a delay in the sell/buy ratio. End result it might drop to 100k a unit. (Nice round number) before stabilizing and climbing again. Buyers wont want to buy above 100k and sellers wont wont to sell below 100.
If no one buys the sell orders out then its multiple jumps of 5k a rise up until 100k where it "may" stabilize for a short time. ie 75 its there now), 81, 90, 95, 100. The jumps are relative to those 200k-350k sell orders that have been appearing daily for the last month. But that is short term. Long term which might not be that far behind is up again.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 12:52:00 -
[4]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 12:59:49
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 24/09/2010 10:33:04 it means it's pushing so hard that it will have a pullback next.
Normally I would 100% say "This." However no one is really arguing that it isn't worth more. It still isn't up to the predicted post patch day prices.
That is the first thing. The belief that it will keep going up will stop sellers selling it below 100k a unit once it reaches it.
Secondly. The Technetium supply is fixed unlike most items. I dont think old stockpiles are making much effect, if any effect at all on the markets anymore. People that felt it was worth less are most likely out of the market by now. Even Akita T sold a million units a few weeks ago. Yes it was him being eccentric. Yes he has more and he has also sold more. :) There is nothing like having liquid isk and its easy enough to make returns elsewhere.
The main reason however is limited people. Technetium has a very limited number of people with-in its market. Its unlike most eve items and pretty much every real world item which economists and their formulas generally deal with. You need to think outside the box and question your real world assumptions at its roots. This is why I say this
Originally by: AnakieNine The problem with forecasting, as well as probability and statistics isn't really math. It's the inability of people to successfully understand when they should and shouldn't use a particular method.
The next thing people fail at, is that they weight the conclusion with their own bias opinions.
Always question every assumption and view the problem from many angles.
Few people do all these things well.
So with less people in a market comes less competition and with that a drop is likely. Robotics is a market item with lots of people in it and follows real world examples closer. Those player have to play the 0.01 games that CCP force on us and end results is a force back to the current region price levels quiet very fast. Especially when ccp provide that annoying buy/sell confirmation screen which tells every players that they are paying or selling for to much. It often just takes one or two players to sell at the old regional value or at best closer to the regional value as they don't play the 0.01 isk and lemmings will follow. It starts the landslide back to the old regional value. From this we move up and down as supply and demand but in smaller steps.
Anywasy the less players in tech market combined with the fixed supply and no other forces on it means that there aren't to many 0.01 games played by the suppliers (i.e The moon miners). Moon miners are the predominate force in the market. Those moon miners that do play the 0.01 game drop out of the market fairly quickly once their limited mined stock is sold. Hence it allows for the normal sell orders to be sold from normal lazy moon miners that have long ago realized you dont have to update every 5 minutes.
Only traders and large competitive holders shifting into a 0.01 battle situation will get the tech moon owners frustrated enough to start dropping their sell price by much. And that will only stand for as long as the battling traders and have stock.
There was a real lack of any large correction in dyspo moon goo even when the 7 trillion isk in moon goo expoit appeared. dyspo price dropped however it never really dropped in large chunks as proper moon miners new it was worth more and exploiters wanted a nice price. Few people still in the market etc. Tech will be similar, assuming the price stays at its high value for 3+ days so that the regional average % the CCP should us stablises closer to the price. It wont quickly drop below this regional average at any rate.
Enjoy
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 13:41:00 -
[5]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 13:45:53 If your talking about nanotransistors/fullerides and the things they make?
Not much. Infact no more than has already happened is need to sustain the tech price rises. Read other thread.
Fullrides could go up a couple of hundred isk a unit.
Platium tech needs to go up to 50k which isn't hard to do and will occur when/if tech gets to 100k. Apart from that figures look enough to sustain the price if they don't change.
Demand and supply of the nanos, fullerides, and microprocessors will have a much bigger effect on their own prices, short term and will be turbulent for some time to come. Hence could still have some nice profits there if sold at the right time. Edits.. Usual fixing of bad typos and speeling as always. :) |
AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 16:50:00 -
[6]
Just in case you missed the update in my post above.
Quote:
Looking at the current numbers and a few other indicators we might actually have a couple of days at 80k a unit while the regional average catches up. That last 10k was quick and that 311k sell order should hold. Also a chance of a few people that have stock selling off with this comment. :) [/Quote]
Ok. I'm not sure where to start on answering your other questions Vaerah.
First off no offence at all.
For the record statistical analysis is the only way you can go about it. I hope I didn't give that opinion. Game or real life the math is the same. Maybe my simplification of the problem and trying to keep it simple for those that don't do numbers made you think this?
I also agree with everything you have shown. I do however find its a just starting point in game as well as out of it. So don't get me wrong. It is my background and I do love it but it is also just one part of the equation. For many its normally just the part they use to prove to confuse people and prove there own Opinion.
ok. Fixed supply-If you felt I was suggesting this was some peculiar condition I didn't exactly mean to. Was just adding its weight to the model so to speak. It is however a constraint that you have to consider and a difference that is interesting when compared to most normal elastic items that people trade in eve. That was the point. Why could technetium be different. I might be wrong too. :)
Gold!! Now that is a very interesting topic and one I have followed personally since early childhood.
It is also one of those interesting items as well. Nothing is truly unique, but I put it in the unique model category that deserves its own model to predict its future values correctly. Even if it has been boring for a long time. Forcasting maths for single items are great for predicting one or two steps ahead but with each step into the future simple std deviations start causing wild variations in accuracy. Use models. :)
Gold literally has little "true" value. Governments stock it. It's role has changed over the years. It's price is dictated a lot by technical development in the mining industry not unlike Oil. Double its price and you find new deposits and new ways of extracting it.
Its not rare. It's absolutely everywhere. Even in sea water. If I remember rightly if we could extract all the gold dissolved in sea water alone we would have enough to give every man woman and child on earth 40 ounces of gold each. Forget about calculating what is in the ground. The problem with gold is extracting it. Stick more people into getting it or better techniques and the supply will go up. We are stuck with CCP and a fixed moon rate until they change it. In all honestly I would try Queuing theory on technetium as it would be a more interesting real time model of what is happening. And when it might hit the wall. I also think that we need a cycle or a few days at 80k a unit after thinking more about the liquid isk on builders accounts. A lot may have had to reduce there reaction cycles to cover the extra isk they have needed to re-buy tech. The profits in the end line products are probably a sign of this. I guess thats the problem with stats alone. You lose so much of the details. Its like an animal tracker looking at prints in the sand. You know its a fox, you can work out is weight, its direction, but not always why its going that way.
Thankfully Eve is so much simpler than real life. Cause and effects are restricted and easily defined. More factual constraints and less rules of thumbs which are generally used in equations. Most of all years of real life can be condensed into weeks or days in eve. New technology changes aren't a problem. The closest thing we have is CCP and that is twice a year. With a bit of logic you should be able to make some assumptions about them too and reduce any negative effects. Not sure if I have answered your real question. Hopefully I hav
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 17:27:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Business Classy
Originally by: AnakieNine
... That last 10k was quick and that 311k sell order should hold.
I really doubt that it will. At least not for more than 2 days at best.
Anyways, what I find interesting is that there has been less daily trading happening during the 40K level and now during this upturn than there was during the prolonged 30K level. I have no idea whatsoever what that might mean, if anything
I didn't think it would last a day but I'm not so sure any more its 50% chance of going or staying. see reason in the top of last post. It really needs a 2 day hold so we can rise again without questions and without as many negative issue from the way the game is setup. Mainly % above regional value. Expect a few sell offs. How long before it rises again will tell you more about how much stock is out there.
As for your second question the technetium daily sales volume has been dropping since around a month after patch day. This is a sign of reduced supply or demand or perhaps a product "bypassing" the market and going straight to the end products or builders. Picking which one is hard. Normally what happens is volume doesn't change a lot. It stays the same and the price moves up/down to a new level to encourage more people into increasing/decreasing units of that item. Even down until people don't bother selling as much. Hanger stocks increase.
Since in this case prices kept increasing while daily units didn't increase it shows a volume elasticity problem and supply disappearing from somewhere. Derr.. Yeah ok, we all know fixed moon count.. So it clearly suggests a shortage. What was the supply that has disappeared? Years of tech moons mined and not sold when it wasn't a big cash cow. A fair bit of it stayed in peoples hangers. Some of it was sold to speculators and the rest has been added to daily turn over ever since. 9 months is a long time to hold stock waiting for the price to go up. So a lot of the speculators have been selling. As each sold the daily supply disappeared. Judging by this I doubt there is much speculated stock left in hangers as people believe. We are on the cusp with not enough left to force it back down for long.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.25 02:20:00 -
[8]
@Inbrainsane
Hehe. Sorry, wasn't a flame. I make flames real personal. :) I probably did read a bit into it.
Now please put your goonhat on. Your in public. |
AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.27 21:13:00 -
[9]
As quoted before any price stabilizing occured.
Originally by: AnakieNine Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 14:28:50 Looking at the current numbers and a few other indicators we might actually have a couple of days at 80k a unit while the regional average catches up. That last 10k was quick and that 311k sell order should hold. Also a chance of a few people that have stock selling off with this comment. :)
So looks good and is moving as expected. Sell orders are only 20% or 200k units above last months normal sell order volumes. Which is good considering such a large price increase. Jita Daily sell Volume is also back to normal levels and below the 1 million units a day.
Combined, these show that the market is accepting the price and no large sell off's are still occuring. Why? Either people think it is still going up, or stock piles no longer exist to the extent of the past.
I say give it another week and it will probably go up again. Most people will want 100k. Its a number thing.. The only thing that will keep us at a current holding pattern is the larger volume of sell orders up for Nanotranistors and a bit higher sell order listing for fullerides. Which in itself is interesting for a few reasons. I'll be watching this. :)
Microprocessors look really good as they continue to put a positive outlook for technetium. Still a first for 6 months.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.28 11:39:00 -
[10]
Yeah. BeeFive and Rayne someone? (I think) has been trading the price gap for the last 3 days. Completely camping the buy and sell orders continuously for the last 24-30 hours.
Lots of small and multiple sell orders have gone up to bait Moon miners. It wasn't a big problem until today when they seemed to have enough stock. That or enough people continuously selling to them in frustration to outbid the sell orders every 5 minutes during offpeak time. Hence the large string of sell orders running downward all day. I saw a lot of moon miners selling out to buy orders as technetium holders got really frustrated. Straight after about 1/2 the stock was replace on 3-4 sell orders. I also saw the buy orders increase time and again and narrow until they where filled again and again. Which in turn increased the problems as Beehive was almost always the highest placed buy order. Returning it to a sell order.
It will be interesting to see where this goes. Technetium moon miners aren't very used to updating their own bids every few minutes. It was a reasons I listed for prices staying up. No 0.01-ers. :)
I guess I will wait the week while stock should drop at whatever price it settles at and see what happens. One good thing is if the price drops it can hurt the gap trader too. As its hard to flip stock efficiently. More than once I saw them selling for roughly the same as they purchased it for.
His wallet seems smallish with a lack of buy orders when he has to many buy orders up.
fyi. He is also trading nano-transistors too.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.28 15:22:00 -
[11]
Interesting.
The top 5 sell orders just so happen to offset another sell order by exactly 5 minutes. Well Plus or minus 2 seconds.
Coincidence?
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.28 16:43:00 -
[12]
No great hurry. Its kind of interesting to watch.
Lets see how long it last.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.30 04:23:00 -
[13]
They really should do this.
It would mean a return to the career of the old moons mappers. Currently people just go to websites and have all the info they need. It would also allow active moon scanners who generally aren't rich to hit the jackpot like it was in its heyday. That is until it gets taken off them. :)
I also wonder if it would be worth mining all your crap moons in the hope that you discover a rarer resource underneath. Just not sure how you would have not scanned it before. :(
This would be one of the best things CCP could do for the game mechanics. Stop allowing things to be stagnant like the current system! Game players like turmoil and opportunities. Give the new player more chances to hit it rich etc.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.30 12:55:00 -
[14]
yes after all it is far harder to drop a hauler, umm sorry freighter full of technetium in an alliance territory.
:)
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.30 13:44:00 -
[15]
Don't worry I was just trolling :) The point was a freighter or a moon? Both could be used if one believed CCP wanted to benefit someone. I don't.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.01 11:30:00 -
[16]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 01/10/2010 11:32:53 Edited by: AnakieNine on 01/10/2010 11:31:33
Originally by: zz01shagsme Edited by: zz01shagsme on 01/10/2010 06:56:16 Do you expect fullerides to increase? For a continuous operation fullerides need to increase by at least 1500k before it becomes worth the initial investment and rebuy of tech which is, off current prices, 1.4bil..for 9m a day profit?
Unlikely for a week.
We are currently still in a cycle where many of the builders are selling product they made with pre 50k technetium. They will be thinking that the profit made is great and more than happy to sell.
Until enough of the last cycle sells it should hold at around what it is now. Maybe a very slight increase as stocks get sold. Someone has 5-6 batches of 1.5m units of nanotransistors for sale. A largish amount. They are updating all of them at the same time. Not a wise thing to do by anyone really wanting to sell product.. Hence the market will be largely dependence on those until the old stock is gone.
Watch stocks slowly reduce over 1-2 weeks. It might be quicker but unlikely.
A very slight drop in price while the above builders 0.01 each other is not unexpected initially either. As long as the total volume in sell orders continues to decrease. This will in fact open up more opportunity as the price increase afterwards will be sharper and more pronounced.
One of the best signs is the steady price of technetium. There has been great resistance by sellers who don't seem to want to drop even 1k in the technetium price. Even during the 0.01er games that lasted 3 days. Stocks in the active sell area are slowly decreasing. A surprise when the current daily sell volume is slightly lower than normal. A result of the under performing fullerides/nanos price causing a short term reduction in demand.
In itself it is surprising that the current demand for tech is so high with a low fullerides/nanos price. It basically looks like enough people are starting to factor in their own "steady" tech price increase into their future costing and expected final end product sale price. That really is a great sign and prediction of strong prices 2-4 weeks into the future by players themselves.
Also fullerides will go up before nanotransistors.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.03 02:05:00 -
[17]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 03/10/2010 02:13:36 Edited by: AnakieNine on 03/10/2010 02:11:11
Originally by: Raid'En so guys ? seems you were wrong, there is no change on the trend of the market, still dropping.
Actually no. You need to look at the whole picture. Yeah technetium dropped thanks to almost a whole days worth of Jita volume sold to buy orders. Do that to any stock in one shot and it will will always drop a few percent. I would normally say yes however have you checked Nanotransistors/fullerides today. There strong sales result and lack of new product replacing them is a stronger sign.
From yesterday Nanos are Up 100 isk and there is only 1/2 the stock we had yesterday on sale as well. I guess its no longer going to take 1-2 weeks to get sold as I said in my last post. Those 6 blocking orders of 1.5 million units which where the biggest problem are now down to only 2 blocks.
Fullerides are up 150 isk (a nice rise, the best and it was mentioned to watch fullerides in the last post). Stocks in sell orders of fullerides are also approximately 1/2 of yesterdays units as well. A great sign as well.
Tech is also once again profitable to build from at 80k a unit. So lets see how long it price will stay at a 70k sell price. Watch out if the remain nanos and fulleride stocks disappear.
So all in all no negative signs for tech. Just a low tech price itself and a likely time for reactors/builders to buy back in. Previously I expected 1-2 weeks for nanos/fullerides stocks to disappear. Signs look much better now and stocks at half. A check of invention prices of a sample of ships that use technetium in them shows that they are becoming profitable again using the current microprocessor prices. It takes a while to pull the price of end product up when tech effects so many of them. Your effectively dragging the whole market up by having tech rise. The enormity of it can slow things down and a part reason reason i called a sudden hold before it got to its last peak. If we get another large jump this wont be as much of a problem as more ship builders etc are aware and will react a little quicker this time. All this going against a long term of deflation which causes people to drag their feet. Its part of the reason I have been discussing tech in so much detail. It's the most interesting thing in the eve market atm both in math, general conclusions and in the effects it has on peoples opinion which change market places. The whole model is where the fun is. Oh yes i have stocks in it too. Quite a lot at 1.5k a unit.
So with Tech being the best buy in the whole chain atm, an interesting change from it being the worst for the last couple of weeks, Lets see how the price is at the end of the week. It is definitely up. Edit just read Akita T Post. Exactly however I have been deliberately going out on a limb with tech and trying to give an exact answer and direction. Its a nice change from people that dont. Also no market analyst should ever give precise answers like I am trying to give. It takes a lot to predict a markets every move.
Hopefully people learn a little. It takes a complete model and a lot goes into estimating every step for it to even be half successful. I'm deliberately keeping it simple by keeping as much math out of the posts as I can. To many players don't like it :)
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.03 14:18:00 -
[18]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 03/10/2010 14:26:03 Edited by: AnakieNine on 03/10/2010 14:21:49 When Platinum dives so does neodymium. If it isn't so obvious by the graphs, unrefined neo-mercurite always seems to be about 1/3 to 1/2 above the normal neo-mercurite reaction cost and final sale price of neo-mercurite. It acts as a price cap even though I doubt anyone is using it.
Right now it cost 14687isk a unit to make a unit of neo-mercurite from the unrefined Neo Mercurite reaction. Therefore it couldn't support the higher price of 15k a unit without creating extra supply. The unrefined reaction would kick in and players with neodymium don't want that and get worried. They expect a price drop as they should and hence it happens.
When platinum goes back up so should neodymium. In the past when I manipulated platinum I always saw nice gains in neodymium.
The price drop was a bit quick so I tend not to think it was excess long term supply. But I could be wrong. :)
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.04 06:59:00 -
[19]
heh. I was the one that purchased most of the neodymium for a month before the patch. I initially speculated that it would be a coin toss between tech and neod being the largest bottleneck.
All signs pointed to platinum being in short supply. Post patch analyst showed a nice boost to platinum usage. At the time all other MD-ers believed the same. The final conclusion was that platinum would support a price of 5k before alliances felt it worth while to mine moons more than 1 jump radius out from high sec.
Two things changed that might have made a big difference. 1) Fuel required for jump drives dropped in half. (Cheaper to move things back to empire.) 2) Relative peace. (More time to move things back to empire) 3) Time.. (As always more time to build up stocks. Anything that isn't a bottleneck tends to drop in price over time as the materials builds up.) Players increasing their build stock is a from of demand and shows up more on a new item or when a item requirement changes.
I to have a nice chuck of neodymium left. Just over 4 million units in case war finally comes and the platinum price rises as supply gets restricted.
That last drop in neod price was way to quick as well. I guess the sell order containing 900k units has had a lot to do with it. When I have looked it appears to only get updated once a day.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.04 07:29:00 -
[20]
Oh crap. :) I hate when things change and you don't revisit your old assumption. Its a guaranteed way to lose profits. This is why you use graphs to point you in a direction of why.
Can anyone see the new flaw?
I wish to advise a few friends that could be effected on different items just in case its valid. I'll post it here soon.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.04 23:36:00 -
[21]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 04/10/2010 23:45:43 Opps. I should have been precise. Not tech. I meant from the post above about neodymium and more specifically platinum which is at least price capping neodymium.
Something in that post doesn't hold as true anymore and it may have broken my model. One assumption is very questionable to me now. I know it has changed the dynamics of the system. Just not confident in how much. We can discuss that latter.
Originally by: Akita T Wild guess : Technetium price spike finally starting to push down more noticeably on prices of all other moon minerals ?
That is a good thing imo as do you. :) We all expected that. I felt it would have got to 8k much quicker (3 months) and have noted the extra time for future simular changes. Not that you can profit directly from it. If I remember right you posted that it had to drop I think to 10 or was it 15k? in a short time after the patch. Your short term prediction was closer to mine I know that. I expected a lower and quicker result.
As time passes the stocks from the old valuable moons had to keep increasing until the price dropped to a point where people become inefficient with the resource and the decrease in price of end items raised the usage (demand). The combination of a lower/higher production efficency (Supply) with more/less use of end items (demand) always has to change until both match. (market equilibrium).
Even at 8-10k I don't think there would be to many extra moons now not being utilized that where being used before. So has demand for end items gone up enough to match? If not the price continues down.
Originally by: Claire Voyant Edited by: Claire Voyant on 04/10/2010 14:49:31
Originally by: AnakieNine Can anyone see the new flaw?
More specifically, I would think the rising price of Fullerides hurts Neo.
Edit: Actually, while rising tech hurts all moon mats, it hurts Platinum, Neo, and Mercury the most.
This comment is surprising interesting. :) Maybe we have arrived at the same conclusion by seeing different things. Your right, when things go up those items that have the most elasticity will give a little in order to help keep the price basket the same. Most of the moon goo don't have much room to play with. Neod would. Even at a lower price than it was all the moons that where being used still will be. Perhaps another reason for the shorter term drop? Just not the one I was thinking about. This is also what akita T said tech is doing to the other moon minerals. (short term effect the most.) If it those items below market equilibrium then those items will move back up in the coming days/weeks/months. This is a good time to watch them and make conclusions. The new question mark I have specifically/directly effects (if right) moon minerals in the 2-5?k price range. Others wont have much effect. That probably is only platinum and mercury. :) Strangely mercury doesn't show much signs at a glance while platinum probably has some.
Anyone want to do a TA report on mercury. VV? It's a interesting graph.
Excuse if any of this post seems a bit down putting. I'm just having some fun to see if people are learning anything and thinking outside the box. I'm also tring to keep as many people following the conversation and dont want to spell it out to much. I probably have :P
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.05 03:46:00 -
[22]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 05/10/2010 03:52:05 No other guesses? Please someone. Don't be scared.
Also a really nice 700k technetium block has gone up on sell orders 4 hours ago. At that size it has to be an old speculator or NC itself? A blocking order? Prehaps. Either way it looks likely to make tech cheaper sometime in the future.
Normally at this stage I would change market direction of which i have been out of for a while and sell a bunch to the microprocessor market, then the nano market, and follow up with the fulleride market. lastly sell some but make sure I crash the technetium price using as little stock as i had to. It wouldn't be hard since I already created a drop in nanos/fullerides/microprocessor market. So basically use that 700k unit and other stock against them. Make it look like a crash. End result is one of two things. you get a bunch of stock of the market (Not mine) from people that are either every smart or very dumb. Which one they are I am not sure yet. Either way they are very dangerous. Do it right and I would get to buy it all up with the extra isk from taking the cream off the microprocess, nanos/fulleride markets.
However that is going more into manipulation and I don't want to go much into that topic as everyone has their own methods and techniques. I would also like to keep mine.
Unfortanately doing this is against what I have been posting for the tech price so I will restrain myself from my normal market shark behaviour and let the market sort it out by itself. What happens depends on the person behind the order and their goals.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.06 01:12:00 -
[23]
Another reason for this discussion is that I'm interested on how much the market reacts to a public discussion. Both good and bad. A good analyst will always use it as another positive or negative weight in any model.
It is Interesting that only technetium has gone down atm. That 700k unit or the discussions here have brought out another 1+ million units of techn. We now have 4.3 million units below 80k. A nice figure to know. Market elasticity.
The manipulation attempt if it is one has not really been done very well imo but it can be effective. They currently are just using a single brute force attack on only one item in a chain of items.
The order itself isn't getting updated often. So more chance he doesn't really want to sell it. Watch for the order dropping only after a run of orders are seen going down a few (k) below his. This will tell you a lot. Esp.if left again.
Now back to the last post when I asked about blocking orders? The ones that don't move? They can have another purpose. Did anyone guess what it was?
Well when you want to manipulate items that are on the rise and the item has already jumped before. i.e. Noc, techn, robotics etc you almost always get a large run of sell orders as the price slowly drops from its previous breakout high to a more reasonable level. This is a major problem but its mainly a problem down the track when you decide you want to raise it again. (you know it can sustain another jump). That string of higher orders leftover in the 10-30% price range will end up stalling any future price increase opportunities and also contain jumps to smaller steps each time. It has the effect of increasing the time period before it get to where you know/want it to go. For a price breakout to occur quicker the smart trader spends time setting up the market so the conditions are right. The only other way is to use brute force to buy it all and that can be costly to profits when it is above current market price. So like everything in life the best solution is generally combine both methods (i.e All methods). You want to move as many of those over priced orders as you can beforehand so you don't have to wait 90days or buy them out. Do it right and you only need to buy a bit of product at market price and relist 10-30% higher. If price then goes back to its old price after a few days it is not a complete loss. you just sell it for the old price and make only a little.
Ok back to techn and how I would have done it if techn was not so public. Also important that the general public's knowledge isn't that it was going up long term. That causes problems and makes the job harder. So before posting and making it even more public I would do this...
First the large strings of sell orders in the range 80k-100k have to go. So a large order or orders placed at 80k would do well. Not unlike the current ones that are sitting there.... but larger like the 700k one. Also picking a nice BRN (big round number) helps. Make people think you are someone that has just left them there at 10% etc profit and forgotten about it. The owners of many of the bids in the 80-100k range will watch it and when they decide that you aren't moving it, they often move their order below yours oinstead of waiting for yours to sell, or the 90days for it to disappear. After an initial mass migration of higher orders below yours it generally takes 10-30 days for the others to give up after deciding the opportunity to sell high is gone. They move the order. Latter when you perceive the cost to force the breakout is optimal and cheap you buy up all the sell orders stock below yours and move your large order. In effect creating the price break out. The less public the item is the better it works :)
I do a couple of other things as well but I will leave those to myself. Its all about planing and being able to change directions when opportunities come up. You don't know how tempting it is to crash the products that techn makes atm.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.10 02:00:00 -
[24]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 10/10/2010 02:04:12
Originally by: AnakieNine Edited by: AnakieNine on 01/10/2010 11:32:53 Watch stocks slowly reduce over 1-2 weeks. It might be quicker but unlikely.
My hold period is almost over with only 4 days left until those 2 weeks are up. Lets check stocks. As quoted on the 2010.10.06 01:12:00
Originally by: AnakieNine It is Interesting that only technetium has gone down atm. That 700k unit or the discussions here have brought out another 1+ million units of techn. We now have 4.3 million units below 80k. A nice figure to know. Market elasticity.
We now have only 1.39 million units under 80k. almost 3 million units disappeared at a rate of ~700k a day. so within the next 4 days we should easily see another shortage coming up.
This time there probably wont be as much negative reactions from sellers thinking its price may be to high and dumping for profits. Both the seller and speculators are more likely to wait for at least another jump. The slack stock that appeared has been repurchased by people that have to value it above the old price point. That supply wont be coming back on the market in the very short term. So if it was speculator supply we are in good shape. Not as much left for the current sell price.
Guess we need to strap ourselves in and lets see what happens this week. I'm still very interested in in that 311k sell order at 81999isk. Its the same one I mentioned 20 days ago as being the blocker which would halt the price increase. Keep an eye on this block to see what is going to happen. It has a number of interesting features related to it that still may cause a short term price hold at 80k. It is at just enough volume and at a interesting price point that is only slightly above brn of 80k. with the normal expected price gap between buy and sell orders it will encouraging a buy price that sits just below 80k. Psychology speaking it will effect some people. Probably not enough to do much for long. Watch its effect on the market as a good price indicator. Ofc by that stage it could be to late. Which in itself could cause another run.
Originally by: AnakieNine It is Interesting that only technetium has gone down atm.
A nice indicator. Technetium 20% drop never effected nanos/fullrides and microprocessors more than a couple of %. (exclude nanoelectrical microprocessors). So only 1 in 6 items was effected by it. A great sign that it was going up again quickly.
Stocks of nanos/fullerides are still low so expect another price pull from these shortly.
If i had to make a bet. There will be a price rise before Wednesday in technetium. Back to 80k.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.10 16:54:00 -
[25]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 10/10/2010 17:01:55
Originally by: Stacy Silver Anakie - I could be and probably am totally wrong but I am guessing you are the market maker, or at least one of them
Not at all. At least not lately in tech. I possibly could but I managed to get in early and have more than enough tech related products. I no longer wish to expand my holdings as having to much of your total assets in a single chain of products is never a good thing if game changes are made. So apart from very small buys here and there I stopped buying tech related products just after the patch a year ago. If I remember right there is a post near the start of this thread in which I linked the nanotransistors thread. That has my reasons in there. I was basically annoyed at people not understanding the tech market and how it was taking so long to move where it should be. I have had enough of tech and it's not much fun for me anymore. A year is long enough to wait on one type item. I would have sold a long time ago except it was obvious its going up. Probably to 140 eventually. Having finished with it I don't mind others making isk from it. So now I'm just letting people know what I do. However no one should ever invest without checking things themselves and agreeing with them.
I've been playing the markets for a long time and have a little over 2 trillion in Nav. About half of that made from speculation. The rest the old fashion way. So I do quite well at reading the markets.
Originally by: Raid'En
we were not stupid, we were trusting AnakieNine who said it will stop at 100k :P (what ? trusting in eve is stupid ? oh...)
heheh. :) That made me smile. If your worried about a 2-3week delay before something rises then speculation isn't for you. Picking how much something will rise is not an exact science forget about picking exactly when. Most people that originally went into tech did so knowing it was a long term investment. They expected a year. The fact that you are disappointed that it didn't jump from 80k to 100k in a week with no thought of it going down or taking longer is unrealistic. It only take one person with a bit of stock to delay the whole process.
I complained and told people it was going up when at 59k. At 80k I said the rise was going to halt before it actually did. It will get to 100k. but first we have to get over these destructive 400k,700k sell orders that a few people are putting up. If you have been following the market for the last few months you would know that large blocks were generally always in 100k allocations. Not the 400k and definitely not the 700k blocks we have seen at the peaks. As long as this its not the NC selling stock it shouldn't be a problem. Those blocks will however stall the rise or cause a temporary crash like the 700k one did.
btw. If for some strange reason the price doesn't raise back to 80k... and you really don't want to lose isk right this second you only need to react the technetium you brought at 80k into nanotransistors. For every 1 billion you spent at that price it will be worth 1.25b in end product even after all costs are added. ie tower fuel etc. want a bit more use the nanotransistors to build something else.
Sell orders under 80k is back to about 2.3 million units. so looks like a million units has been added in the last couple of hours... including the 400k one. As raw32 said it is probably another person wanting to crash it. Its not normal.
The only other thing we haven't considered is that perhaps a few people are looking at reducing their risk before patch day. Just incase there are changes. 400k sell orders are really rare. forget about 700k ones!
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.10 17:39:00 -
[26]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 10/10/2010 17:40:46
Originally by: Stacy Silver
No offence intended and I hope none taken - just I do wonder - your views WILL affect the market since most people don't speak the lingo or cant be arsed to do the homework themselves - so, I am just wondering if whether in a few weeks/months down the line we get a victory post - guess unlikely if you are in fact leading the psychology of the market here and want to continue doing it heh.
No offence taken.
My victory post? Just one finally saying its at 100k+ and thinking that maybe I helped get it there quicker. I dont like isk tied up. That is the problem with the market, you never really know if you had an effect and if you did, by how much?
It is fun to go out on a public limb for a change.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.10 23:13:00 -
[27]
looks like you will probably have to wait another week at least. We now have 2 lots of 401 k blocks. Why are both at 401k units each? coincidence? Maybe but unlikely.
Raid'En at this stage you could always play the gap. Sell at the current sell price and re-buy at a cheaper buy price. There is always a chance of another drop atm and you might find you buy back in at near 60k this time. Assuming the 800k sellers really want to crash the price. If I had small amounts it would be what I would try in order to increase profits. Its not to hard to manage successfully with little amounts.
I'm starting to have slight suspicion that someone may be having fun doing the opposite of what is being written in MD. I know I often did that myself. The last few market direction changes have all occured just a couple of hours after the previous positive posts. Even when nothing has changed for days and things where improving to the point of another push upwards. I'm not really sure what to make of that atm or how long the market/player/players will dump stock on sell orders every time things look good again. Guess its a nice way to shot yourself in the foot long term. I know I wouldn't do unless I wanted to be out before patch day, or before patch notes.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.10 23:39:00 -
[28]
Couldn't agree more VV. Even though I don't think I have had a hater yet. Possible because I stayed to only 3 items. noc, robotics and techn. Less people to annoy :P and all items still roughly doing what I said. Those items are also big enough that talking about them doesn't effect any single persons grip to much.
Sometimes I'm not sure if the hater post in MD are really hater post or just tools used by other marketeers that don't want more people in their market.
I find this a bit silly when it comes to graphs and trends. ATM there seems so little isk actually used in speculation. I rarely find anyone else doing it and have to do all the work myself. I also find almost no-one changing the prices of things for big ticket categories. The more people that understand basic data like you have been showing the easier it is for a trader (like me) to make more money in the market. Generally items rises are slow in eve compared to other ways of earning income. It can take a year to get to where prices are going. The more people get on TA the quicker the price should get to the new equilibrium in steps and not just slow gradual slopes with few places to get on and off. It generally wont make the price higher but it will allow for quicker a returns and the ability for traders to rotate stocks more often when speculating. End result more isk for those doing it. Lets face it, the market being stagnant is no fun for anyone that hangs out here in MD.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.11 23:57:00 -
[29]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 12/10/2010 00:13:08 Edited by: AnakieNine on 12/10/2010 00:09:38 Cant agree more with all the comments.
Something to notice. We still haven't reached the end ship prices that we had a week after the patch almost a year ago. :) CCP didn't change it then even with all the outcry we had. Will they do anything yet?
Nothing is really to far out of wack price wise. No wave of complaints coming from the masses. Also moons are worth about 60b now a year compaired to the old dyspro moons that where worth 160b a year for a long time before the changes. Imo Eve really needs those flash points and lag hopefully will soon allow for it. But I covered all that in a previous post.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.12 14:28:00 -
[30]
Simple reactions on moons were not profitable a year ago either. The reason being that corps mine the abundant materials locally so that they don't have to import it. Once they get an excess as always happens it is dumped on the market.
If you want to make isk on low end moons you need to run it in Complex Reactions and make 200-350mil a month. Nothing new or odd there.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.13 21:31:00 -
[31]
Probably just a large builder that expected the technetium price drop to effect the fulleride and nonotransistor price. They probably gave up hopes of it falling and repurchased at once after a try in buy orders.
Fullerides had a lower profit margin compared to nanostranistors. So it makes since to choose fullerides. I'm glad those those pesky multi million sell orders are gone.
We are almost 20 days from the tech peak so product from that supply should start hitting the nano and fulleride market. If any of the producers dropped out or cut back their reactions we might see a move obvious shortage in those two items.
Here's to a potential price pull from those if that happens.
Another thing to consider. Just like people sold product cheaply made from the old 50k technetium was a negative during the price rise, we should now see a few people who made fullerides/nanos from the 80k higher price drag their feet. It wont have as much effect as it would have if they actually made a loss using 80k technetium. However it should add a few percentage points too.
My guess would be nanos and fullerides will rise next before technetium. Should someone dump a tonne of nanos/fullerides within the next few hours once again then we know someone is out to stop any possible increase.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.18 00:02:00 -
[32]
Interesting. I personally I would have used that isk in other ways if my goal was to push tech related products up. My guess would be that it was a large builder knowing that he will need/use it.
Much better to bulk buy once and let your competitors pay a little more for it. Also push a couple of people out of the market for a short period of time.
Time to watch how quick stock reappears.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.18 01:29:00 -
[33]
I still doubt its a traders. Or at least not a very good one.
Whenever you buyout a days worth of Jita's sales someone always places new stock up quickly. Normally it takes only 1-2 minutes for someone to see their wallets flash, note the the large increase in isk in their wallet, and then check into it. The next step is put more stock up. If it doesn't happen in the first 2-3 minutes your normally safe for a couple of hours depending on the time of day and the item. I
Whether a builder/trader you are generally always forced to buy more than you really wanted to inorder to push prices up. Therfore after purchasing out stock you almost always want to re-list some at high prices. The first reason is simple. To cash in on any easy isk that you can offload at the max price. Mad if you dont. :) However the main reason for putting up sell orders is that if you don't set a new price by some idoit will see no stock for sale and set the new price at a couple of percent above the old one. I never understood this except that some people are idiots :)
Its also wise to set the new price about 1/3 about what you want. Crazy but it seems to be the sweet spot to get what you really want.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.21 12:44:00 -
[34]
Most likely. At least for a few weeks imo. I sold off a small portion. Partly as protection in case of any changes in the upcoming patch and partly because there are some great opportunities in the markets atm.
The idea is swap out to a higher performing item, gain 10%+ and maybe return to reinvest the profits at hopefully the same price level.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.22 00:22:00 -
[35]
ATM I'm seeing something with the letters y s :) being a good opportunity. It's fun picking the next item to invest in before others. Very satisfying and why I moved some stock.
Techn itself isn't in to bad a shape. I just found something else to stick more isk into. The blocking 311k tech order at 81k along with time itself has been doing its job nicely as explained previously. Not to many orders left above 81k any more as people have been shifting their sell orders down. This allows more opportunity for another price breakout down the track. Only 2.3 million units below 80k on sell orders as well. Not to bad. even better odds when you consider that about 1 million units of those are in just 4 large orders at 70k that someone(s) doesn't really seem to want to move. They might disappear all at once. It depends if they are playing games with those orders. If so I will miss out on the stock I moved. :)
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.22 06:10:00 -
[36]
Originally by: AnakieNine This allows more opportunity for another price breakout "down the track"
As said, "down the track". So not warning of a break out today.. The comment overall was a follow up on talks about blocking orders and their use. Although summarised it is relevant to this post on page 4 of this thread.
Originally by: AnakieNine
Ok back to techn and how I would have done it if techn was not so public. Also important that the general public's knowledge isn't that it was going up long term. That causes problems and makes the job harder. So before posting and making it even more public I would do this...
First the large strings of sell orders in the range 80k-100k have to go. So a large order or orders placed at 80k would do well. Not unlike the current ones that are sitting there.... but larger like the 700k one. Also picking a nice BRN (big round number) helps. Make people think you are someone that has just left them there at 10% etc profit and forgotten about it. The owners of many of the bids in the 80-100k range will watch it and when they decide that you aren't moving it, they often move their order below yours oinstead of waiting for yours to sell, or the 90days for it to disappear. After an initial mass migration of higher orders below yours it generally takes 10-30 days for the others to give up after deciding the opportunity to sell high is gone. They move the order. Latter when you perceive the cost to force the breakout is optimal and cheap you buy up all the sell orders stock below yours and move your large order. In effect creating the price break out. The less public the item is the better it works :)
At its peak there were 4.2m units under 80k and about 2million units above 80k. Total 6.2m units. So once again its now more likely to allow a break out with less orders above the current "average" market price. No one has to worry now about buying 2m units above 80k at 15+% loss if it fails. Try selling it back above 80k and you crash the market b4 making any extra profit offyour old stock.
As for that 650k units? :) You don't sound like a trader? Its just normal daily trades for that item. I'm less worried about normal day trade volumes for an item. Traders can manage that short term to some degree. I'm always more worried about guessing the stockpiles that aren't on the market and what those people will do. Help or Hinder?
Originally by: King Aires
I would be more worried that the large 80+ orders are going to get dumped below the 65k line to sell off stock before the next crash.
I would personally love for all that volume at 80+k to be moved below 70k. That is what blocking orders mentioned above can be used for. If that happened it would be sold in the next few days and traders wouldn't have to spend as much to push for a price rise. Once the 80k orders are gone we (figurative speaking) would change the price of our blocking order/s to our goal price instead of spending very much on buying out stock at inflated prices. So it would be a good thing. A trader can move normal daily sale volumes to a new price without too much problem, but stock at 10-15% inflated prices cuts into profits. It is all about less risk, more chance of reward for the traders work.
Disregarding methods like the one above, traders are left to wait out the 90days for the old high priced stock to drop off. Stock that is generally left from mismanaged previous price break outs. Ones that result in a large number of sell orders running downward 10-30%.
Originally by: King Aires
but I think one should get into a wait and see pattern right now, not buy in to this mess.
Yes. That is what I am doing too right now. Reinvesting a portion in another set of items (y s) and see what tech looks like in another 2 weeks. ofc watching for changes in tech in the meantime.
That said, my personal investment in tech is a little on the heavy side. Its the whole reason I ranted about tech's low price in the first place.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.11.16 10:51:00 -
[37]
Originally by: RAW23
I've sampled the market by buying from the bottom order 47 times over the last 8 days. Roughly 30% of the time (15 samples) that order has belonged to Market Cop. Another c. 20% of the orders (9) have belonged to Kayce Ravoc. 3 other names crop up 3 times. So, on the basis of this unscientific sample about 70% of the undercutting is being done by 5 characters and 50% by just 2.
You might want to research a little wider. When you check a lot of the main Jita trades you will find that these players tend to play the gap on a lot of these items. It also seems easy to make them do what you want. So not a lot of intelligence in how they operate at times. Still, they do camp the trade gap with no real motivation for pushing the price in either direction and they have been doing that for a while. Kayce Ravoc and Beefive (if Beefive is still in tech) seems to belong to the same player as stated earlier in this thread. They follow each others orders on both the buy and sell side at the same time as long as they have spare isk.
I reduced my tech holdings a bit, as quoted earlier in this thread (dated 2010.10.22)
Originally by: AnakieNine
Originally by: King Aires
but I think one should get into a wait and see pattern right now, not buy in to this mess.
Yes. That is what I am doing too right now. Reinvesting a portion in another set of items (y s) and see what tech looks like in another 2 weeks. ofc watching for changes in tech in the meantime.
That said, my personal investment in tech is a little on the heavy side. Its the whole reason I ranted about tech's low price in the first place.
I'm glad I got some stock out of tech at that time and during the next week after that quote and prices were still 15-20% higher then now. Those blocking orders were becoming a pain. As for that "set of items" with the letters (y s)? Well it was the Planetar"Y" material"S" group. Congratulations for those that worked it out. You would have done quite well. A little cryptic but not so much when you consider my other posts about robotics in VV's Time Analyst TA thread? (I think it was that one) I didn't want to publicly tell everyone on the forums and make it as easy as the tech rant I had made at the start of this thread. So congrats on anyone that went with it. I managed to do well in planetary materials. Both Robotics and mechanical parts are up 50% in a month. consumer electronics up 100%. Transmitter's, coolant, and rocket fuel doing ok with a decent increase of 20%.
Even though PI still looks really good its getting to a point where i might put some of the isk back into tech. The profit from PI goods and the saving from tech going down gives it a nice current exchange rate for the month. I'm just not sure at the moment if its going to go down or up in the short term. I might have to check it out properly. A quick glance shows that it could easily go either way this week or just keep going on with the status quo for a while.
The 3? incursion patches over the few months is a bit of a shame as it keeps a bit of uncertainty to tech from the remote chance of a moon patch not ending this month but in jan/feb instead. I was keeping this months patch day as a possible get back in time. I'm sure a lot of other player were too. Ofc I don't think CCP will change it as I stated several times thought out the thread. Still that doesn't mean other players will have the same opinion, and general player mood always effects price. So we now have more of that for the next 2+ months. A real shame and a question mark still hanging over tech. I suspect that the current trend is related to that as much as anything else. People protecting themselves for patch day. I guess I will watch for signs and decide on my next move. :)
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.11.16 20:37:00 -
[38]
No moon patch has been mentioned by CCP. Just players thinking that there may be one since they also have the same question as you did.
Why is a r32 more expensive than the r64? Some answer have been discussed in this thread a few times. My opinion?
It could be CCP making more flash points, making it harder to monopolize. More competition on the market. The r64 moons where to easily controlled, both literally and market wise. CCP might have been trying to create a temporary lull in massive 0.0 fleet fights since the moons were not worth figthing over for about 6+ months. Did CCP think it would give them enough time to fix the lag problem? Maybe. You get the idea. I feel all the effects/changes are good ones that I would have made myself. Well all except for having every tech moon in the north. This may have been because IT aren't in the north. The perceived impression that CCP play favourites was damaging the game and had to be rectified. 2 years ago it was mentioned in something like 1 in 4 threads. So was it damage control? If so it seems to have worked well. The north are much loved by CCP.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.11.24 11:08:00 -
[39]
Originally by: zz01shagsme
correct me if i am wrong but there currently isnt any need to hold the moons becuase no one is fighting?
Maybe? http://www.evenews24.com/2010/11/20/tenal-attacked-by-new-pandemia/
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