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Mella Elcus
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Posted - 2010.09.23 22:14:00 -
[1]
So, last time I checked the price it was at ~55k, and now suddenly it's up at almost 70k. How come no one's mentioned it?
Looks like something shady happened last Sunday, little over 2 billion units traded compared to the "normal" 1 billion, but what do I know?
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.23 22:19:00 -
[2]
You'd know more if you had read the two other threads talking about Technetium made in the last days. - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.09.23 22:39:00 -
[3]
I think no one's talking about it because it's doing exactly what most tech watchers are expecting it to. My only concern is how high it will go before the devs rejig something.
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Companion Trollin
You are going too fast
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Posted - 2010.09.23 22:49:00 -
[4]
Is the new Dysprosium.
♥
Originally by: CCP Shadow Off-topic posts dealing with sexual orientation have been removed. Please keep this discussion on-topic.
Thanks.
-- Shadow
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.23 22:49:00 -
[5]
Originally by: SetrakDark I think no one's talking about it because it's doing exactly what most tech watchers are expecting it to. My only concern is how high it will go before the devs rejig something.
If their analyst is worth 1/10 of his paycheck, they are not going to fiddle with it if the price stays hyperbolic like it is now. That motion is often either a massive shift to a new equilibrium or an exhaustion move. In case it's the former, it has to stabilize at a quite high price and for a long time before they do something. - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.09.23 23:15:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
If their analyst is worth 1/10 of his paycheck,
They pay that moron err economist??
What a sad day
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.23 23:22:00 -
[7]
Somone traded a billion units of Tech huh? That's quite something.
Anyways, in seriousness the only thing that's surprising here is how long it took before Tech finally broke through first 30k and then 40k after the bubble around last Christmas. There's a couple of threads talking about it on the front page here though, just take a look at VV's and 12345's threads for a look at what's going on right now and what kind of pattern is likely to emerge, or try to dig up Akita T's awesome thread from last year which explains why this is happening and what eventual stable price levels might be.
In the immediate future we seem to be looking at the price stabilizing somewhere between 80 and 120K, with various proposed patterns of ups and downs still to come. The products made from Tech (nanotransistors, fullerides and further down the road the MPC's) can be relatively easily worked out from Tech price so there isn't a hell of a lot left to talk about tbh.
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Sralack
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Posted - 2010.09.23 23:45:00 -
[8]
The reason Tech is going up is because the NC has instructed all members to not sell Tech unless it's for 125k a unit. There I said it there is a cartel and they are out to get all of Eve because well Tech belongs to the NC.
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Celi Annor
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Posted - 2010.09.24 02:30:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Sralack The reason Tech is going up is because the NC has instructed all members to not sell Tech unless it's for 125k a unit. There I said it there is a cartel and they are out to get all of Eve because well Tech belongs to the NC.
Where did you get this intel, i got alts all over NC command and havnt heard the 125k mark. Sold my tech too early.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 06:08:00 -
[10]
If you want to know what is happening to technetium read this thread. Nanotransistors
I explained why it was going to happen in there in detail a day or two before the price rise that you mentioned.
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Inbrainsane
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Posted - 2010.09.24 08:36:00 -
[11]
If you want to know what is going on with technetium, read my post.
Open eve, load your jita market char open tech market, price history, one year.
You will notice, that Tech was worthless one year ago. Then CCP changed T2 production and very large quantities of technetium were traded for about 1 Month. Traded by speculators mainly. During the last year a spike in quantities always meant a short drop in prices. The reason was: People were cashing in their stockpiles. And stockpiles kept the price stable at 30k. You can see how a rise in price always correlated to a decline in volume. This means not an increased demand, but a shortened supply was the reason for price change. But how can the supply go down? Tech is mined from moons, almost all Tech moons are tapped, supply is constant. The answer is again: Stockpiles getting exhausted. Stockpiles that were created during several years of eve, when tech was dirt cheap.
And today: There are still large stockpiles left, but they are small compared to the ones from the old times. Tech is the bottleneck in T2 Production. POS fuel is dropping, that means many other T2 Materials are available abundantly. This means pressure on Tech. I would not be surprised if it is above 100k at the end of the year. And who knows, maybe you need Tech to build that Sansha Mothership that is coming.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.24 08:59:00 -
[12]
Quote: Sold my tech too early
Going from "unrealized profit & losses" to "realized profit" is not a bad thing.
Plus, if you read my RL finance thread you'd see you had *two* further opportunities to re-buy a position and profit again. You'd have a compounded wallet from your first sales and a larger unrealized profit running right now. - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 09:37:00 -
[13]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 09:43:34
Originally by: Inbrainsane
Open eve, load your jita market char open tech market, price history, one year.
Thanks for your negativity.
You evidently haven't read the thread. You also haven't seen my old stock piles of technetium and tech product lines that where purchased before Atika T published his spreadsheets, and you also haven't seen that I'm one of the few that haven't sold off his stocks yet.
The only reason I published in that thread was basically a Rant because I am sick of waiting so long for the price to rise to what it should be. Builders and it seems most traders are stupid and dont think about things. Read the thread next time.
edit I should say that my post also was at a time tech had just risen a heap and people like Atika T and others where starting to suggest it was going to stay at 60k isk a unit for a while. That was what cause my Rant and subsequent information.
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.24 09:51:00 -
[14]
So then... anyone running bets on where the eventual stable price will end up after this little roller-coaster?
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.24 10:32:00 -
[15]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 24/09/2010 10:33:04
Originally by: AnakieNine The only reason I published in that thread was basically a Rant because I am sick of waiting so long for the price to rise to what it should be. Builders and it seems most traders are stupid and dont think about things. Read the thread next time.
Markets need to breath, every market has its own "temper" (search for "greeks" in finance). The big markets also have a large inertia.
If you check the last days graph you see the market is really working hard to rise as fast as it can, you can't ask it to go beyond its gimbal limits. Look at how price is well above the 5 SMA line, it means it's pushing so hard that it will have a pullback next. - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 11:03:00 -
[16]
That's a better question. Its never been about will it go up. Its always been around when will it go up.
Short term it is really hard to say. It isn't something I am really confident on predicting as it is easy for 2 or 3 out of major influences to change in combinations that will either allow for continued increase or prevent it in the short term. Long term its much easier to answer as even Inbrainsane let us all know. :)
That said. Let me have a rough guess. If there are any investors left that have spare isk it is looking more and more likely that one of them will say what the hell and buyout the remaining sell orders and set a price at 120k+. Considering the large increase over the current months and the nano/fullerides price and now more important microprocessor price it will most likely stay there.
At that price anyone with stock will be trying to sell some and it should finally start a downward trend as people battle hard for sales (short term). The delay in people wanting to actually buy after the 50% increase in region value jump to 120k etc will cause a build up of sell orders which will help with a short term drop. Also helped along by 3 days of well below daily sales in jita while the regional % "above regional price" drops to a more happier value. People are scared of paying to much above the region value and hence cause a delay in the sell/buy ratio. End result it might drop to 100k a unit. (Nice round number) before stabilizing and climbing again. Buyers wont want to buy above 100k and sellers wont wont to sell below 100.
If no one buys the sell orders out then its multiple jumps of 5k a rise up until 100k where it "may" stabilize for a short time. ie 75 its there now), 81, 90, 95, 100. The jumps are relative to those 200k-350k sell orders that have been appearing daily for the last month. But that is short term. Long term which might not be that far behind is up again.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 12:52:00 -
[17]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 12:59:49
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 24/09/2010 10:33:04 it means it's pushing so hard that it will have a pullback next.
Normally I would 100% say "This." However no one is really arguing that it isn't worth more. It still isn't up to the predicted post patch day prices.
That is the first thing. The belief that it will keep going up will stop sellers selling it below 100k a unit once it reaches it.
Secondly. The Technetium supply is fixed unlike most items. I dont think old stockpiles are making much effect, if any effect at all on the markets anymore. People that felt it was worth less are most likely out of the market by now. Even Akita T sold a million units a few weeks ago. Yes it was him being eccentric. Yes he has more and he has also sold more. :) There is nothing like having liquid isk and its easy enough to make returns elsewhere.
The main reason however is limited people. Technetium has a very limited number of people with-in its market. Its unlike most eve items and pretty much every real world item which economists and their formulas generally deal with. You need to think outside the box and question your real world assumptions at its roots. This is why I say this
Originally by: AnakieNine The problem with forecasting, as well as probability and statistics isn't really math. It's the inability of people to successfully understand when they should and shouldn't use a particular method.
The next thing people fail at, is that they weight the conclusion with their own bias opinions.
Always question every assumption and view the problem from many angles.
Few people do all these things well.
So with less people in a market comes less competition and with that a drop is likely. Robotics is a market item with lots of people in it and follows real world examples closer. Those player have to play the 0.01 games that CCP force on us and end results is a force back to the current region price levels quiet very fast. Especially when ccp provide that annoying buy/sell confirmation screen which tells every players that they are paying or selling for to much. It often just takes one or two players to sell at the old regional value or at best closer to the regional value as they don't play the 0.01 isk and lemmings will follow. It starts the landslide back to the old regional value. From this we move up and down as supply and demand but in smaller steps.
Anywasy the less players in tech market combined with the fixed supply and no other forces on it means that there aren't to many 0.01 games played by the suppliers (i.e The moon miners). Moon miners are the predominate force in the market. Those moon miners that do play the 0.01 game drop out of the market fairly quickly once their limited mined stock is sold. Hence it allows for the normal sell orders to be sold from normal lazy moon miners that have long ago realized you dont have to update every 5 minutes.
Only traders and large competitive holders shifting into a 0.01 battle situation will get the tech moon owners frustrated enough to start dropping their sell price by much. And that will only stand for as long as the battling traders and have stock.
There was a real lack of any large correction in dyspo moon goo even when the 7 trillion isk in moon goo expoit appeared. dyspo price dropped however it never really dropped in large chunks as proper moon miners new it was worth more and exploiters wanted a nice price. Few people still in the market etc. Tech will be similar, assuming the price stays at its high value for 3+ days so that the regional average % the CCP should us stablises closer to the price. It wont quickly drop below this regional average at any rate.
Enjoy
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zz01shagsme
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Posted - 2010.09.24 13:24:00 -
[18]
What sort of rise can you expectin the price of those products associated with technetium?
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 13:41:00 -
[19]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 13:45:53 If your talking about nanotransistors/fullerides and the things they make?
Not much. Infact no more than has already happened is need to sustain the tech price rises. Read other thread.
Fullrides could go up a couple of hundred isk a unit.
Platium tech needs to go up to 50k which isn't hard to do and will occur when/if tech gets to 100k. Apart from that figures look enough to sustain the price if they don't change.
Demand and supply of the nanos, fullerides, and microprocessors will have a much bigger effect on their own prices, short term and will be turbulent for some time to come. Hence could still have some nice profits there if sold at the right time. Edits.. Usual fixing of bad typos and speeling as always. :) |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.24 14:18:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 24/09/2010 14:19:32 First of all I want to thank you, AnakieNine because you are one of the rare IQ friendly posters like Mme, Raw23 and few others and you indeed bring in very enjoyable arguments. So, please don't see my ugly style of my posts as anything confrontational or nasty, it's just my garbage type of English that shows.
Quote:
Technetium has a very limited number of people with-in its market. Its unlike most eve items and pretty much every real world item which economists and their formulas generally deal with. You need to think outside the box and question your real world assumptions at its roots
There are limited number of people RL markets. And there are RL illiquid markets and even RL limited people AND illiquid markets. So far Technetium has shown a behavior that shows sufficient liquidity, it's not whipsawing, it's not gapping. It presented multiple retracement easy entries for late comers (all discussed in my RL finance thread) that behaved 1:1 with regular markets like i.e. Dow Jones.
Therefore I have to keep the RL model good till proven wrong (which could be totally possible, even tomorrow!). If I invested in Technetium (I didn't, I love RL finance but am not interested in getting e-rich) at this point I'd have made TONS, therefore the RL model worked well enough so far.
Also, you talk about "fixed supply" like it's some peculiar condition. What about RL commodity markets of scarce / limited goods like gold? There are not massive gold faucets yet it's "just a market", not something incredibly unique.
- Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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zz01shagsme
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Posted - 2010.09.24 14:48:00 -
[21]
Originally by: AnakieNine Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 14:28:50 Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 14:12:19 Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 14:01:31 If your talking about nanotransistors/fullerides and the things they make?
Not much. Infact no more than has already happened is need to sustain the tech price rises. Read other thread.
Fullrides could go up a couple of hundred isk a unit.
Platium tech needs to go up to 50k which isn't hard to do and will occur when/if tech gets to 100k. Apart from that figures look enough to sustain the technetium price if they don't change.
Demand/supply of the nanos, fullerides, and microprocessors will have a much bigger effect on their own prices short term as the high technetium price has throw builders out-of-wack and also disrupted supply lines. Those prices will be turbulent for some time to come. Hence could still have some nice profits there, if sold at the right time. Edits.. Usual fixing of bad typos and speeling as always. :)
Edit.. Looking at the current numbers and a few other indicators we might actually have a couple of days at 80k a unit while the regional average catches up. That last 10k was quick and that 311k sell order should hold. Also a chance of a few people that have stock selling off with this comment. :)
Interestng may i ask then if the price of manufacturing these things has risen why you dont expect them to rise by the same amount? i'd expect more profit from an initial 1.4bil investment in technetium alone. the 1.4bil being the cost of 20k units of technetium...with the current jump in price, it is actually pointless in manufacturing technetium products becuase you might be able to 20k one week but the following week you wouldn't.
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.24 16:22:00 -
[22]
Originally by: AnakieNine
... That last 10k was quick and that 311k sell order should hold.
I really doubt that it will. At least not for more than 2 days at best.
Anyways, what I find interesting is that there has been less daily trading happening during the 40K level and now during this upturn than there was during the prolonged 30K level. I have no idea whatsoever what that might mean, if anything
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.09.24 16:42:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Business Classy Anyways, what I find interesting is that there has been less daily trading happening during the 40K level and now during this upturn than there was during the prolonged 30K level. I have no idea whatsoever what that might mean, if anything
More amateur speculators selling to buy orders, and correspondingly more flipping. Now it's all the rich and patient speculators putting up straight sell orders. That's my guess.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 16:50:00 -
[24]
Just in case you missed the update in my post above.
Quote:
Looking at the current numbers and a few other indicators we might actually have a couple of days at 80k a unit while the regional average catches up. That last 10k was quick and that 311k sell order should hold. Also a chance of a few people that have stock selling off with this comment. :) [/Quote]
Ok. I'm not sure where to start on answering your other questions Vaerah.
First off no offence at all.
For the record statistical analysis is the only way you can go about it. I hope I didn't give that opinion. Game or real life the math is the same. Maybe my simplification of the problem and trying to keep it simple for those that don't do numbers made you think this?
I also agree with everything you have shown. I do however find its a just starting point in game as well as out of it. So don't get me wrong. It is my background and I do love it but it is also just one part of the equation. For many its normally just the part they use to prove to confuse people and prove there own Opinion.
ok. Fixed supply-If you felt I was suggesting this was some peculiar condition I didn't exactly mean to. Was just adding its weight to the model so to speak. It is however a constraint that you have to consider and a difference that is interesting when compared to most normal elastic items that people trade in eve. That was the point. Why could technetium be different. I might be wrong too. :)
Gold!! Now that is a very interesting topic and one I have followed personally since early childhood.
It is also one of those interesting items as well. Nothing is truly unique, but I put it in the unique model category that deserves its own model to predict its future values correctly. Even if it has been boring for a long time. Forcasting maths for single items are great for predicting one or two steps ahead but with each step into the future simple std deviations start causing wild variations in accuracy. Use models. :)
Gold literally has little "true" value. Governments stock it. It's role has changed over the years. It's price is dictated a lot by technical development in the mining industry not unlike Oil. Double its price and you find new deposits and new ways of extracting it.
Its not rare. It's absolutely everywhere. Even in sea water. If I remember rightly if we could extract all the gold dissolved in sea water alone we would have enough to give every man woman and child on earth 40 ounces of gold each. Forget about calculating what is in the ground. The problem with gold is extracting it. Stick more people into getting it or better techniques and the supply will go up. We are stuck with CCP and a fixed moon rate until they change it. In all honestly I would try Queuing theory on technetium as it would be a more interesting real time model of what is happening. And when it might hit the wall. I also think that we need a cycle or a few days at 80k a unit after thinking more about the liquid isk on builders accounts. A lot may have had to reduce there reaction cycles to cover the extra isk they have needed to re-buy tech. The profits in the end line products are probably a sign of this. I guess thats the problem with stats alone. You lose so much of the details. Its like an animal tracker looking at prints in the sand. You know its a fox, you can work out is weight, its direction, but not always why its going that way.
Thankfully Eve is so much simpler than real life. Cause and effects are restricted and easily defined. More factual constraints and less rules of thumbs which are generally used in equations. Most of all years of real life can be condensed into weeks or days in eve. New technology changes aren't a problem. The closest thing we have is CCP and that is twice a year. With a bit of logic you should be able to make some assumptions about them too and reduce any negative effects. Not sure if I have answered your real question. Hopefully I hav
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Celi Annor
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Posted - 2010.09.24 16:50:00 -
[25]
Few weeks ago I offloaded a large chunk of technetium and posted about it in another thread. Said we would see 75k-80k shortly without any problems (when tech was at 50k sell)
The trend is "too" strong. I just bought up maybe half a mil units and looking at my transaction histroy... all noob alts. Lol not a single NC seller. Are they really withholding thier stocks.. or are they selling through these 5-10 noob alts.
And who wants to take out the large sell at 81k with me?
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 17:27:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Business Classy
Originally by: AnakieNine
... That last 10k was quick and that 311k sell order should hold.
I really doubt that it will. At least not for more than 2 days at best.
Anyways, what I find interesting is that there has been less daily trading happening during the 40K level and now during this upturn than there was during the prolonged 30K level. I have no idea whatsoever what that might mean, if anything
I didn't think it would last a day but I'm not so sure any more its 50% chance of going or staying. see reason in the top of last post. It really needs a 2 day hold so we can rise again without questions and without as many negative issue from the way the game is setup. Mainly % above regional value. Expect a few sell offs. How long before it rises again will tell you more about how much stock is out there.
As for your second question the technetium daily sales volume has been dropping since around a month after patch day. This is a sign of reduced supply or demand or perhaps a product "bypassing" the market and going straight to the end products or builders. Picking which one is hard. Normally what happens is volume doesn't change a lot. It stays the same and the price moves up/down to a new level to encourage more people into increasing/decreasing units of that item. Even down until people don't bother selling as much. Hanger stocks increase.
Since in this case prices kept increasing while daily units didn't increase it shows a volume elasticity problem and supply disappearing from somewhere. Derr.. Yeah ok, we all know fixed moon count.. So it clearly suggests a shortage. What was the supply that has disappeared? Years of tech moons mined and not sold when it wasn't a big cash cow. A fair bit of it stayed in peoples hangers. Some of it was sold to speculators and the rest has been added to daily turn over ever since. 9 months is a long time to hold stock waiting for the price to go up. So a lot of the speculators have been selling. As each sold the daily supply disappeared. Judging by this I doubt there is much speculated stock left in hangers as people believe. We are on the cusp with not enough left to force it back down for long.
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True Sight
THORN Syndicate Controlled Chaos
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Posted - 2010.09.24 18:37:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Celi Annor Few weeks ago I offloaded a large chunk of technetium and posted about it in another thread. Said we would see 75k-80k shortly without any problems (when tech was at 50k sell)
The trend is "too" strong. I just bought up maybe half a mil units and looking at my transaction histroy... all noob alts. Lol not a single NC seller. Are they really withholding thier stocks.. or are they selling through these 5-10 noob alts.
And who wants to take out the large sell at 81k with me?
Most people selling/buying extremely valuable goods use trade alts, due to the trade skills Accounting/Broker relations having a huge effect on profit margins when you're talking about more than a billion isk per buy/sell order.
Additionally most people are paranoid, they don't want people to know what characters are transporting the valuable stuff, want to avoid war-decs etc --------------------------------------
True Sight President Foiritan Emissary --<<!SUPPORT DRONES!>>--
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.24 19:59:00 -
[28]
And another sizable blocking order wades in... looks like someone's working for some stability :)
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Inbrainsane
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Posted - 2010.09.24 22:34:00 -
[29]
Edited by: Inbrainsane on 24/09/2010 22:37:06 Anakin,
wtf?
I am not negative. I DID read the thread. I draw similar conclusions. I just wanted to simplify things a bit. And you mix up indicators for a price change and reasons for a price change. Price changes on correlating products are indicators. Changes in supply and demand are reasons. And you were telling us a detailed and true story about correlating producst(nanotransistors and so on). So I felt like adding a story about why Technetium is so special and why stockpiles and traded volume plays a role.
Ah, on that note, you started to mention volume just a few posts after mine.
Sorry if my you felt offended by my post, no pun was intended. So stop the flame already.
*edit* Damn you if I get kicked out of Goonfleet because I am too nice to you. *edit*
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.24 23:46:00 -
[30]
I think he probably just misunderstood the 'look at the year long history graph' line you opened that post with, that you were indicating we were having a similar bubble as a year ago, though that wasn't what you meant.
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