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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.10.14 12:57:00 -
[151]
I usually stick to fundamentals in commentary, though I play the psychology game often enough when trading, but I have to comment on the last day or so. It seems that actual users of tech have refused to accept the somewhat arbitrary sell price of 70k set by all the heavy speculation over the last week. It seems we've decided 70k is the way forward, for a little while at least, but they haven't. It will be interesting to see who caves first, especially with the weekend coming up.
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.10.14 13:04:00 -
[152]
Originally by: SetrakDark I usually stick to fundamentals in commentary, though I play the psychology game often enough when trading, but I have to comment on the last day or so. It seems that actual users of tech have refused to accept the somewhat arbitrary sell price of 70k set by all the heavy speculation over the last week. It seems we've decided 70k is the way forward, for a little while at least, but they haven't. It will be interesting to see who caves first, especially with the weekend coming up.
I see a lot of buy orders disappearing... and the same old sell orders dropping, new ones coming in to under cut those. I am no Warren Buffet, but I would say you caved first and us producers are going to set a new price point for a while.
Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.10.14 13:30:00 -
[153]
Originally by: King Aires I would say you caved first and us producers are going to set a new price point for a while.
Call yourself a "builder" or a "consumer" because "producer" is too confusing in this context.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.10.14 13:38:00 -
[154]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: King Aires I would say you caved first and us producers are going to set a new price point for a while.
Call yourself a "builder" or a "consumer" because "producer" is too confusing in this context.
Unless, of course, you actually mean you are mining technetium yourself, in which case...well, that wouldn't make much sense. :)
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.10.14 14:02:00 -
[155]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: King Aires I would say you caved first and us producers are going to set a new price point for a while.
Call yourself a "builder" or a "consumer" because "producer" is too confusing in this context.
True good sir, or mam... Replace producer with buyer... the whole point is, for the short term it is a buyers market.
Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.10.15 16:46:00 -
[156]
Originally by: King Aires I see a lot of buy orders disappearing... and the same old sell orders dropping, new ones coming in to under cut those. I am no Warren Buffet, but I would say you caved first and us producers are going to set a new price point for a while.
Too early to tell for sure, but it looks like 70k will hold. I was leaning towards speculators folding when I posted earlier, but it looks like the big variations are smoothing and we're moving to a stable price.
I think someone would have to put up a sizable block to successfully crash the price in a manipulation attempt now.
Btw, this is all just idle speculation; neither a serious attempt to analyze the short term market nor a cheap manipulation attempt.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.10.16 04:26:00 -
[157]
Originally by: King Aires for the short term it is a buyer's market
Emphasis on "short"
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.10.16 10:05:00 -
[158]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: King Aires for the short term it is a buyer's market
Emphasis on "short"
I am still dreaming that one of these expansions would produce for us a T3 mining ship that is more customizable than the hulk or mack... and crash the tech market all in one
Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.10.17 20:41:00 -
[159]
So in Tech related news, "someone" just bought Nanotransistors out and relisted quite a lot of them at ~7k.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.18 00:02:00 -
[160]
Interesting. I personally I would have used that isk in other ways if my goal was to push tech related products up. My guess would be that it was a large builder knowing that he will need/use it.
Much better to bulk buy once and let your competitors pay a little more for it. Also push a couple of people out of the market for a short period of time.
Time to watch how quick stock reappears.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.10.18 00:25:00 -
[161]
Originally by: AnakieNine Interesting. I personally I would have used that isk in other ways if my goal was to push tech related products up. My guess would be that it was a large builder knowing that he will need/use it.
Much better to bulk buy once and let your competitors pay a little more for it. Also push a couple of people out of the market for a short period of time.
Time to watch how quick stock reappears.
I thought large builder myself at first, because the market cleared of everything u to 4500 first, and then I checked back earlier and it had been cleared and (I think) reposted at 7k. Admittedly I didn't see whether the stacks at 7k were already there, but eh.
And the 7k point was almost instantly undercut by half a million units at 5k, and then another half million just under that, and say ~2.5 million units total at 5k now. So there's your answer for that. Doesn't really cover the daily volume though, so it may be interesting to watch.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.18 01:29:00 -
[162]
I still doubt its a traders. Or at least not a very good one.
Whenever you buyout a days worth of Jita's sales someone always places new stock up quickly. Normally it takes only 1-2 minutes for someone to see their wallets flash, note the the large increase in isk in their wallet, and then check into it. The next step is put more stock up. If it doesn't happen in the first 2-3 minutes your normally safe for a couple of hours depending on the time of day and the item. I
Whether a builder/trader you are generally always forced to buy more than you really wanted to inorder to push prices up. Therfore after purchasing out stock you almost always want to re-list some at high prices. The first reason is simple. To cash in on any easy isk that you can offload at the max price. Mad if you dont. :) However the main reason for putting up sell orders is that if you don't set a new price by some idoit will see no stock for sale and set the new price at a couple of percent above the old one. I never understood this except that some people are idiots :)
Its also wise to set the new price about 1/3 about what you want. Crazy but it seems to be the sweet spot to get what you really want.
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.21 10:56:00 -
[163]
well seems it's a "see you in 3 months" for technium >_< ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.21 12:44:00 -
[164]
Most likely. At least for a few weeks imo. I sold off a small portion. Partly as protection in case of any changes in the upcoming patch and partly because there are some great opportunities in the markets atm.
The idea is swap out to a higher performing item, gain 10%+ and maybe return to reinvest the profits at hopefully the same price level.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.10.21 13:46:00 -
[165]
You heard it here first folks, sell the heck out of your tech.
;)
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Phey Onat
Sigillum Militum Xpisti
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Posted - 2010.10.21 19:57:00 -
[166]
Edited by: Phey Onat on 21/10/2010 19:59:39 Projected profits won't be realized for months. Too long for the lemmings. You heard it folks! Sell! Sell!
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.22 00:22:00 -
[167]
ATM I'm seeing something with the letters y s :) being a good opportunity. It's fun picking the next item to invest in before others. Very satisfying and why I moved some stock.
Techn itself isn't in to bad a shape. I just found something else to stick more isk into. The blocking 311k tech order at 81k along with time itself has been doing its job nicely as explained previously. Not to many orders left above 81k any more as people have been shifting their sell orders down. This allows more opportunity for another price breakout down the track. Only 2.3 million units below 80k on sell orders as well. Not to bad. even better odds when you consider that about 1 million units of those are in just 4 large orders at 70k that someone(s) doesn't really seem to want to move. They might disappear all at once. It depends if they are playing games with those orders. If so I will miss out on the stock I moved. :)
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.10.22 02:11:00 -
[168]
Originally by: AnakieNine ATM I'm seeing something with the letters y s :) being a good opportunity. It's fun picking the next item to invest in before others. Very satisfying and why I moved some stock.
Techn itself isn't in to bad a shape. I just found something else to stick more isk into. The blocking 311k tech order at 81k along with time itself has been doing its job nicely as explained previously. Not to many orders left above 81k any more as people have been shifting their sell orders down. This allows more opportunity for another price breakout down the track. Only 2.3 million units below 80k on sell orders as well. Not to bad. even better odds when you consider that about 1 million units of those are in just 4 large orders at 70k that someone(s) doesn't really seem to want to move. They might disappear all at once. It depends if they are playing games with those orders. If so I will miss out on the stock I moved. :)
lol, your warning of a break out because there is a couple large orders at 70k? there is 650k units placed between 67 and 70k, I would be more worried that the large 80+ orders are going to get dumped below the 65k line to sell off stock before the next crash. There are some powerful players trying to keep this price up, but I think one should get into a wait and see pattern right now, not buy in to this mess.
That is of course unless your willing to throw 50 billion isk into the market just to jump the price to a whopping 71k
Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.22 06:10:00 -
[169]
Originally by: AnakieNine This allows more opportunity for another price breakout "down the track"
As said, "down the track". So not warning of a break out today.. The comment overall was a follow up on talks about blocking orders and their use. Although summarised it is relevant to this post on page 4 of this thread.
Originally by: AnakieNine
Ok back to techn and how I would have done it if techn was not so public. Also important that the general public's knowledge isn't that it was going up long term. That causes problems and makes the job harder. So before posting and making it even more public I would do this...
First the large strings of sell orders in the range 80k-100k have to go. So a large order or orders placed at 80k would do well. Not unlike the current ones that are sitting there.... but larger like the 700k one. Also picking a nice BRN (big round number) helps. Make people think you are someone that has just left them there at 10% etc profit and forgotten about it. The owners of many of the bids in the 80-100k range will watch it and when they decide that you aren't moving it, they often move their order below yours oinstead of waiting for yours to sell, or the 90days for it to disappear. After an initial mass migration of higher orders below yours it generally takes 10-30 days for the others to give up after deciding the opportunity to sell high is gone. They move the order. Latter when you perceive the cost to force the breakout is optimal and cheap you buy up all the sell orders stock below yours and move your large order. In effect creating the price break out. The less public the item is the better it works :)
At its peak there were 4.2m units under 80k and about 2million units above 80k. Total 6.2m units. So once again its now more likely to allow a break out with less orders above the current "average" market price. No one has to worry now about buying 2m units above 80k at 15+% loss if it fails. Try selling it back above 80k and you crash the market b4 making any extra profit offyour old stock.
As for that 650k units? :) You don't sound like a trader? Its just normal daily trades for that item. I'm less worried about normal day trade volumes for an item. Traders can manage that short term to some degree. I'm always more worried about guessing the stockpiles that aren't on the market and what those people will do. Help or Hinder?
Originally by: King Aires
I would be more worried that the large 80+ orders are going to get dumped below the 65k line to sell off stock before the next crash.
I would personally love for all that volume at 80+k to be moved below 70k. That is what blocking orders mentioned above can be used for. If that happened it would be sold in the next few days and traders wouldn't have to spend as much to push for a price rise. Once the 80k orders are gone we (figurative speaking) would change the price of our blocking order/s to our goal price instead of spending very much on buying out stock at inflated prices. So it would be a good thing. A trader can move normal daily sale volumes to a new price without too much problem, but stock at 10-15% inflated prices cuts into profits. It is all about less risk, more chance of reward for the traders work.
Disregarding methods like the one above, traders are left to wait out the 90days for the old high priced stock to drop off. Stock that is generally left from mismanaged previous price break outs. Ones that result in a large number of sell orders running downward 10-30%.
Originally by: King Aires
but I think one should get into a wait and see pattern right now, not buy in to this mess.
Yes. That is what I am doing too right now. Reinvesting a portion in another set of items (y s) and see what tech looks like in another 2 weeks. ofc watching for changes in tech in the meantime.
That said, my personal investment in tech is a little on the heavy side. Its the whole reason I ranted about tech's low price in the first place.
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2010.10.26 13:06:00 -
[170]
AHHHHH!!!!! 50k by Christmas
You heard it here first folks
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.10.26 18:39:00 -
[171]
I still really think Akita was right in his analysis that demand outstrips supply in the Technetium market. My view is that the buy-up to 70k caused a panic buy from traders who didn't want to miss out, and who slowly give up on the next big spike thereby releasing a little at a time putting the market in a temporary equilibrium. I also take it that many people who use Technetium are running on lower and lower stockpiles trying to wait out what they perceive to be a run-of-the-mill manipulation.
Talk of "powerful players" engaging in a grand manipulation is just fear mongering. The price would have dropped back to 40k by now if this was a player-driven cycle. There are numerous people who are selling tech in such a way as to try and drive price down, and their efforts repeatedly fail before they pick up momentum. I can see how someone who doesn't play in markets as big as Tech regularly would see this as manipulation. The reason I think they are wrong is that f the only thing keeping prices up were people buying lower orders to sustain a floor, then you wouldn't see bites getting taken out of the lower blocking orders every couple of days.
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2010.10.26 20:35:00 -
[172]
Originally by: PinkFish I still really think Akita was right in his analysis that demand outstrips supply in the Technetium market. My view is that the buy-up to 70k caused a panic buy from traders who didn't want to miss out, and who slowly give up on the next big spike thereby releasing a little at a time putting the market in a temporary equilibrium. I also take it that many people who use Technetium are running on lower and lower stockpiles trying to wait out what they perceive to be a run-of-the-mill manipulation.
Talk of "powerful players" engaging in a grand manipulation is just fear mongering. The price would have dropped back to 40k by now if this was a player-driven cycle. There are numerous people who are selling tech in such a way as to try and drive price down, and their efforts repeatedly fail before they pick up momentum. I can see how someone who doesn't play in markets as big as Tech regularly would see this as manipulation. The reason I think they are wrong is that f the only thing keeping prices up were people buying lower orders to sustain a floor, then you wouldn't see bites getting taken out of the lower blocking orders every couple of days.
Maybe its the new owners of Tech moons in the north who don't wanna play along with the "fair price" model of the NC.
Maybe it is the falling price and over supply of the advanced materials which makes Tech look less appealing.
Maybe its lower demand of T2 ships since T1 are super cheap and everyone and their brother flies a Tengu or Loki when not in their Super Cap.
Maybe it is the price of moon fuel who took the less hardened T2 producers out of the market, thus creating less competition for the same number of raw materials.
Maybe I ate cat the the "You know who far east" restaurant I was at last night, who cares:
50k by Christmas! Hell, 50k by Thanksgiving
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Fire Stone
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Posted - 2010.10.26 23:44:00 -
[173]
Edited by: Fire Stone on 26/10/2010 23:45:33 Has anyone mentioned or realized that 65% of the Technetium moons are all in Black Rise controlled by very few entities. 17 in Black Rise.. 13 all the rest of eve.
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TooFatToFish
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Posted - 2010.10.27 00:17:00 -
[174]
Originally by: Fire Stone Edited by: Fire Stone on 26/10/2010 23:45:33 Has anyone mentioned or realized that 65% of the Technetium moons are all in Black Rise controlled by very few entities. 17 in Black Rise.. 13 all the rest of eve.
56%, and get out.
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.10.27 00:22:00 -
[175]
Its that time again, is it? Ok...
DOOMED, WE'RE ALL DOOMED!!! SELL!!!
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Phey Onat
Sigillum Militum Xpisti
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Posted - 2010.10.27 04:24:00 -
[176]
Originally by: Fire Stone Edited by: Fire Stone on 26/10/2010 23:45:33 Has anyone mentioned or realized that 65% of the Technetium moons are all in Black Rise controlled by very few entities. 17 in Black Rise.. 13 all the rest of eve.
There are more than 13 in the rest of EVE. Black rise does have alot for lowsec
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Betty Boom
Caldari SPECTRE Syndicate
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Posted - 2010.10.27 11:51:00 -
[177]
Originally by: Fire Stone Edited by: Fire Stone on 26/10/2010 23:45:33 Has anyone mentioned or realized that 65% of the Technetium moons are all in Black Rise controlled by very few entities. 17 in Black Rise.. 13 all the rest of eve.
Nice Troll. There are 120+ Technetium moons in Venal. There are 550+ Technium moons in the Game from CR to Branch to Drone region.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.05 13:59:00 -
[178]
A SERIOUSLY agressive manipulation going on at the moment
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.05 15:50:00 -
[179]
Someone with huge stockpiles has been trying to push it down for a few days, I think its remarkable that it has held this well...
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flakeys
DRAMA Inc Sev3rance
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Posted - 2010.11.05 15:56:00 -
[180]
Originally by: volhar Someone with huge stockpiles has been trying to push it down for a few days, I think its remarkable that it has held this well...
Started a week back with stocks of 200k ... appearantly it didnt work as he/thhey wanted and currently throwing multiple 200k stocks , a 400k AND a 500k on there.
If tech doesnt hit 62 now i dunno what will.
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