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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.11.11 13:35:00 -
[211]
About 340 million if the number I'm remembering for the floor is actually accurate.
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.11 13:54:00 -
[212]
either way, masterfully done to get it to rebound, I'm impressed
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2010.11.11 14:25:00 -
[213]
Originally by: volhar either way, masterfully done to get it to rebound, I'm impressed
Question now is how high is it going to go?
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.11.11 19:13:00 -
[214]
Originally by: Herman Klaus
Originally by: volhar either way, masterfully done to get it to rebound, I'm impressed
Question now is how high is it going to go?
Oh yeah, it's just unstoppable what with that million units under 64k sitting there... Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
evehost.homeip.net:9991
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.11 20:49:00 -
[215]
it bounced it up 15% in a day, I'd call that significant
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2010.11.11 20:56:00 -
[216]
Originally by: King Aires
Originally by: Herman Klaus
Originally by: volhar either way, masterfully done to get it to rebound, I'm impressed
Question now is how high is it going to go?
Oh yeah, it's just unstoppable what with that million units under 64k sitting there...
I bought at 56 and sold at 62. Happy with that. Back to the normal trades now :-)
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.11.12 10:10:00 -
[217]
Originally by: volhar it bounced it up 15% in a day, I'd call that significant
It could be a W, impulsive speculators should beware of bull traps. - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2010.11.15 15:26:00 -
[218]
There is now 900k units of Tech below 62k. There is now 2.5 million units at or below 66k
I think you are seeing the manipulators give up or get out and we are about to see the true value of Technetium soon.
Problem is, I don't think it will be in the direction most of you are thinking/hoping it will be.
Tech below 50k by Christmas, no joke.
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.15 15:36:00 -
[219]
I have to admit its not doing what I thought it would, but I still sold all of mine already so it doesnt really matter. It'll head down for a while, but unless it is in fact not the bottleneck (and I doubt that so many people could have gotten that wrong) it will go back up... 2.5m units is really only a few days trading volume when you think about it.
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2010.11.15 17:47:00 -
[220]
Originally by: volhar I have to admit its not doing what I thought it would, but I still sold all of mine already so it doesnt really matter. It'll head down for a while, but unless it is in fact not the bottleneck (and I doubt that so many people could have gotten that wrong) it will go back up... 2.5m units is really only a few days trading volume when you think about it.
Yeah that is over 150 billion isk in extra tech on the market. Not to mention the daily production. 3 days worth of extra stock at a low price is a ton considering the market is supposed to be dry all the time.
It is the bottleneck, but its not like T2 ships are the only thing people can fly. The low price of T1 and T3 alternatives makes Tech very elastic. I feel there are still large piles of Tech held by speculators which we have not seen dumped yet on the market. When that happens, tech drops below 50k.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.15 20:03:00 -
[221]
Are some of you guys really thinking that this is a natural fall in price?
I've sampled the market by buying from the bottom order 47 times over the last 8 days. Roughly 30% of the time (15 samples) that order has belonged to Market Cop. Another c. 20% of the orders (9) have belonged to Kayce Ravoc. 3 other names crop up 3 times. So, on the basis of this unscientific sample about 70% of the undercutting is being done by 5 characters and 50% by just 2.
Watching these orders for a bit I have seen these guys undercutting themselves to give the illusion of downwards momentum. The few times I have managed to be present when a big drop in price happened, it has also involved these guys. As far as I can see there is little question of this downwards pressure being due to a general underlying trend. These characters are just working it hard and effectively. The big sell orders also clearly seem to be blocking orders as no attempt is being made to actually sell them.
I'm enjoying the masterclass on market manipulation though and have picked up some cheap tech on the back of their work. Thanks lads! |
Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2010.11.15 20:43:00 -
[222]
Originally by: RAW23 Are some of you guys really thinking that this is a natural fall in price?
I've sampled the market by buying from the bottom order 47 times over the last 8 days. Roughly 30% of the time (15 samples) that order has belonged to Market Cop. Another c. 20% of the orders (9) have belonged to Kayce Ravoc. 3 other names crop up 3 times. So, on the basis of this unscientific sample about 70% of the undercutting is being done by 5 characters and 50% by just 2.
Watching these orders for a bit I have seen these guys undercutting themselves to give the illusion of downwards momentum. The few times I have managed to be present when a big drop in price happened, it has also involved these guys. As far as I can see there is little question of this downwards pressure being due to a general underlying trend. These characters are just working it hard and effectively. The big sell orders also clearly seem to be blocking orders as no attempt is being made to actually sell them.
I'm enjoying the masterclass on market manipulation though and have picked up some cheap tech on the back of their work. Thanks lads!
Are you really still assuming that there is a master plot to drop the price of Tech? Can you be that naive? More likely and simply the solution to this riddle is those corps you mentioned were part of the manipulation upwards over the last few months and are now trying to get out while they can, remember some people thought Tech would be 150k by now, imagine your disappointment if you bought in at 35k a much more natural price and now can barely get out at 60k... not even doubling your investment after 4 or 5 months is pretty sad, thats what these guys are doing, selling due to disappointment.
The simplest answer is usually the correct one. To think that people would come together to sabotage a market is complex, to think that people got in on the hype to drive it up is much more simple.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.15 20:53:00 -
[223]
Edited by: RAW23 on 15/11/2010 20:53:55
Originally by: Satyri Hermides
Originally by: RAW23 Are some of you guys really thinking that this is a natural fall in price?
I've sampled the market by buying from the bottom order 47 times over the last 8 days. Roughly 30% of the time (15 samples) that order has belonged to Market Cop. Another c. 20% of the orders (9) have belonged to Kayce Ravoc. 3 other names crop up 3 times. So, on the basis of this unscientific sample about 70% of the undercutting is being done by 5 characters and 50% by just 2.
Watching these orders for a bit I have seen these guys undercutting themselves to give the illusion of downwards momentum. The few times I have managed to be present when a big drop in price happened, it has also involved these guys. As far as I can see there is little question of this downwards pressure being due to a general underlying trend. These characters are just working it hard and effectively. The big sell orders also clearly seem to be blocking orders as no attempt is being made to actually sell them.
I'm enjoying the masterclass on market manipulation though and have picked up some cheap tech on the back of their work. Thanks lads!
Are you really still assuming that there is a master plot to drop the price of Tech? Can you be that naive? More likely and simply the solution to this riddle is those corps you mentioned were part of the manipulation upwards over the last few months and are now trying to get out while they can, remember some people thought Tech would be 150k by now, imagine your disappointment if you bought in at 35k a much more natural price and now can barely get out at 60k... not even doubling your investment after 4 or 5 months is pretty sad, thats what these guys are doing, selling due to disappointment.
The simplest answer is usually the correct one. To think that people would come together to sabotage a market is complex, to think that people got in on the hype to drive it up is much more simple.
Sure - it makes much more sense that people are so desperate to get rid of their stock that they are undercutting their own sell orders. I mean, the idea of someone manipulating a market in eve! Pure conspiracy theory.
edit - I'm not suggesting any sort of master plot. It seems clear that there are only a handful of people selling stuff from sell orders at the moment.
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Zora
Gallente Vector Industries
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Posted - 2010.11.15 23:43:00 -
[224]
Not trying to imply anything at all, but saying that Tech can't reach any higher than the current 60-65k dance is not really a realistic measurement either. Remember dyspro? Yeah, it took a while, but it did indeed reach well over 100k price ranges - which is the same that will happen to Tech, when the circumstances are right. Of course people fly T1 too, but they always did that, and I don't think it's really the point. There are other variables at play here right now.
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Victriferusianus
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Posted - 2010.11.16 07:57:00 -
[225]
Originally by: RAW23 Edited by: RAW23 on 15/11/2010 20:53:55
Originally by: Satyri Hermides
Originally by: RAW23 Are some of you guys really thinking that this is a natural fall in price?
I've sampled the market by buying from the bottom order 47 times over the last 8 days. Roughly 30% of the time (15 samples) that order has belonged to Market Cop. Another c. 20% of the orders (9) have belonged to Kayce Ravoc. 3 other names crop up 3 times. So, on the basis of this unscientific sample about 70% of the undercutting is being done by 5 characters and 50% by just 2.
Watching these orders for a bit I have seen these guys undercutting themselves to give the illusion of downwards momentum. The few times I have managed to be present when a big drop in price happened, it has also involved these guys. As far as I can see there is little question of this downwards pressure being due to a general underlying trend. These characters are just working it hard and effectively. The big sell orders also clearly seem to be blocking orders as no attempt is being made to actually sell them.
I'm enjoying the masterclass on market manipulation though and have picked up some cheap tech on the back of their work. Thanks lads!
Are you really still assuming that there is a master plot to drop the price of Tech? Can you be that naive? More likely and simply the solution to this riddle is those corps you mentioned were part of the manipulation upwards over the last few months and are now trying to get out while they can, remember some people thought Tech would be 150k by now, imagine your disappointment if you bought in at 35k a much more natural price and now can barely get out at 60k... not even doubling your investment after 4 or 5 months is pretty sad, thats what these guys are doing, selling due to disappointment.
The simplest answer is usually the correct one. To think that people would come together to sabotage a market is complex, to think that people got in on the hype to drive it up is much more simple.
Sure - it makes much more sense that people are so desperate to get rid of their stock that they are undercutting their own sell orders. I mean, the idea of someone manipulating a market in eve! Pure conspiracy theory.
edit - I'm not suggesting any sort of master plot. It seems clear that there are only a handful of people selling stuff from sell orders at the moment.
I would like to add that Market Cop and Kayce Ravoc are also buying technetium so it seems that they are trading the gap and not trying to get rid of their stock. |
AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.11.16 10:51:00 -
[226]
Originally by: RAW23
I've sampled the market by buying from the bottom order 47 times over the last 8 days. Roughly 30% of the time (15 samples) that order has belonged to Market Cop. Another c. 20% of the orders (9) have belonged to Kayce Ravoc. 3 other names crop up 3 times. So, on the basis of this unscientific sample about 70% of the undercutting is being done by 5 characters and 50% by just 2.
You might want to research a little wider. When you check a lot of the main Jita trades you will find that these players tend to play the gap on a lot of these items. It also seems easy to make them do what you want. So not a lot of intelligence in how they operate at times. Still, they do camp the trade gap with no real motivation for pushing the price in either direction and they have been doing that for a while. Kayce Ravoc and Beefive (if Beefive is still in tech) seems to belong to the same player as stated earlier in this thread. They follow each others orders on both the buy and sell side at the same time as long as they have spare isk.
I reduced my tech holdings a bit, as quoted earlier in this thread (dated 2010.10.22)
Originally by: AnakieNine
Originally by: King Aires
but I think one should get into a wait and see pattern right now, not buy in to this mess.
Yes. That is what I am doing too right now. Reinvesting a portion in another set of items (y s) and see what tech looks like in another 2 weeks. ofc watching for changes in tech in the meantime.
That said, my personal investment in tech is a little on the heavy side. Its the whole reason I ranted about tech's low price in the first place.
I'm glad I got some stock out of tech at that time and during the next week after that quote and prices were still 15-20% higher then now. Those blocking orders were becoming a pain. As for that "set of items" with the letters (y s)? Well it was the Planetar"Y" material"S" group. Congratulations for those that worked it out. You would have done quite well. A little cryptic but not so much when you consider my other posts about robotics in VV's Time Analyst TA thread? (I think it was that one) I didn't want to publicly tell everyone on the forums and make it as easy as the tech rant I had made at the start of this thread. So congrats on anyone that went with it. I managed to do well in planetary materials. Both Robotics and mechanical parts are up 50% in a month. consumer electronics up 100%. Transmitter's, coolant, and rocket fuel doing ok with a decent increase of 20%.
Even though PI still looks really good its getting to a point where i might put some of the isk back into tech. The profit from PI goods and the saving from tech going down gives it a nice current exchange rate for the month. I'm just not sure at the moment if its going to go down or up in the short term. I might have to check it out properly. A quick glance shows that it could easily go either way this week or just keep going on with the status quo for a while.
The 3? incursion patches over the few months is a bit of a shame as it keeps a bit of uncertainty to tech from the remote chance of a moon patch not ending this month but in jan/feb instead. I was keeping this months patch day as a possible get back in time. I'm sure a lot of other player were too. Ofc I don't think CCP will change it as I stated several times thought out the thread. Still that doesn't mean other players will have the same opinion, and general player mood always effects price. So we now have more of that for the next 2+ months. A real shame and a question mark still hanging over tech. I suspect that the current trend is related to that as much as anything else. People protecting themselves for patch day. I guess I will watch for signs and decide on my next move. :)
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Claude Dibbler
Science and Trade Institute
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Posted - 2010.11.16 16:53:00 -
[227]
I just get back to eve from a 2yrs break, could someone tell me what is this "moon patch" mentioned in the post above ? Also what the hell they were thinking when they revoked the moon mins market, a single r32 mineral cost more than all r64 ?
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.11.16 20:37:00 -
[228]
No moon patch has been mentioned by CCP. Just players thinking that there may be one since they also have the same question as you did.
Why is a r32 more expensive than the r64? Some answer have been discussed in this thread a few times. My opinion?
It could be CCP making more flash points, making it harder to monopolize. More competition on the market. The r64 moons where to easily controlled, both literally and market wise. CCP might have been trying to create a temporary lull in massive 0.0 fleet fights since the moons were not worth figthing over for about 6+ months. Did CCP think it would give them enough time to fix the lag problem? Maybe. You get the idea. I feel all the effects/changes are good ones that I would have made myself. Well all except for having every tech moon in the north. This may have been because IT aren't in the north. The perceived impression that CCP play favourites was damaging the game and had to be rectified. 2 years ago it was mentioned in something like 1 in 4 threads. So was it damage control? If so it seems to have worked well. The north are much loved by CCP.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.16 21:52:00 -
[229]
Originally by: AnakieNine Edited by: AnakieNine on 16/11/2010 11:04:35
Originally by: RAW23
I've sampled the market by buying from the bottom order 47 times over the last 8 days. Roughly 30% of the time (15 samples) that order has belonged to Market Cop. Another c. 20% of the orders (9) have belonged to Kayce Ravoc. 3 other names crop up 3 times. So, on the basis of this unscientific sample about 70% of the undercutting is being done by 5 characters and 50% by just 2.
You might want to research a little wider. When you check a lot of the main Jita trades you will find that these players tend to play the gap on a lot of these items.
I've certainly seen Market Cop playing the same game elsewhere. The reason I suspect the blocking orders belong to at least some of the people trading the gap is because a forcing down of the price of the goods and the placement of large blocking orders has also been a feature I have seen before with that name. I'm not sure what purpose the blocking orders are supposed to serve if not to depress the price (whoever owns the 700k+ unit order doesn't seem to have any interest in actually selling it), allowing for a more or less guaranteed hefty bonus when they decide to release the pressure. The technique looks very similar to that used in the salvage markets earlier in the year and also throughout most of the year on some T3 salvage (the only markets I have paid much attention to big manipulations in).
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2010.11.17 11:58:00 -
[230]
Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 17/11/2010 12:01:08
Originally by: RAW23
I've certainly seen Market Cop playing the same game elsewhere. The reason I suspect the blocking orders belong to at least some of the people trading the gap is because a forcing down of the price of the goods and the placement of large blocking orders has also been a feature I have seen before with that name. I'm not sure what purpose the blocking orders are supposed to serve if not to depress the price (whoever owns the 700k+ unit order doesn't seem to have any interest in actually selling it), allowing for a more or less guaranteed hefty bonus when they decide to release the pressure. The technique looks very similar to that used in the salvage markets earlier in the year and also throughout most of the year on some T3 salvage (the only markets I have paid much attention to big manipulations in).
Perhaps the blocking orders allows them to increase the rate of turnover for them? It keeps the gap between buy and sell quite close perhaps driving some people out of the buy-order market. My thinking on this is that if the gap is small enough then those that want to buy the product for use will be more inclined to just buy off the sell orders, rather than try out-1-isking to save a couple million from a billion isk order. If the gap is larger however it'd be more worth their time to use the buy orders instead?
This allows the people putting block orders in place to trade the gap more effectively because their buy orders wont be outbid as much. Those selling tech will be more inclined to sell to a buy order due to the minimal difference in price but huge difference in time synch for trying to put their own sell orders in. Their sell orders are fulfilled by those wishing to buy the product for themselves! Maybe, maybe not, just my thoughts :)
I also suspect the number of stocks left over from before PI are not as high as people think, not to the extent where millions are left behind. I may be wrong, and anyone with before-PI stock might enlighten me, but from the quantity bought before the expansion it doesn't look like there are millions and millions held back. That, to me, says the price is being held down artificially, perhaps those trading the gap are the ones that put the blocking orders in, as I said above. They could also be people that need to USE tech at the same time, so they profit on gap trading and keep prices low for the stock they keep for their own use? At some point the price will have to rise though, that is my guess. All just half-baked thoughts in my noggin for now though. |
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Tasko Pal
Aliastra
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Posted - 2010.11.17 13:48:00 -
[231]
Originally by: Caldariftw123
I also suspect the number of stocks left over from before PI are not as high as people think, not to the extent where millions are left behind. I may be wrong, and anyone with before-PI stock might enlighten me, but from the quantity bought before the expansion it doesn't look like there are millions and millions held back. That, to me, says the price is being held down artificially, perhaps those trading the gap are the ones that put the blocking orders in, as I said above. They could also be people that need to USE tech at the same time, so they profit on gap trading and keep prices low for the stock they keep for their own use? At some point the price will have to rise though, that is my guess. All just half-baked thoughts in my noggin for now though.
Then where did the quantities for the block orders come from? And why hold down the price artificially? The strategy you outline above works much better when they center the spread so that they get as much buy as sell volume (that is, "market price").
Given that the average price hasn't moved much for the past week and falls about halfway between the hi and low, this indicates to me that we have a bit of short term stability and a modest indication that maybe the price isn't being held down, even with the huge slabs on top.
As an aside, it's been a while since I was on MD, but is this talk of market manipulation going to be a THING every time some big good falls from a peak? I was seeing it with the thread on intact armor plates too.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.11.17 13:51:00 -
[232]
Originally by: Tasko Pal
Originally by: Caldariftw123
As an aside, it's been a while since I was on MD, but is this talk of market manipulation going to be a THING every time some big good falls from a peak? I was seeing it with the thread on intact armor plates too.
When the only tool in your toolbox is a hammer...
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.11.17 13:57:00 -
[233]
Originally by: corestwo
Originally by: Tasko Pal
Originally by: Caldariftw123
As an aside, it's been a while since I was on MD, but is this talk of market manipulation going to be a THING every time some big good falls from a peak? I was seeing it with the thread on intact armor plates too.
When the only tool in your toolbox is a hammer...
There is a major reluctance for people who followed Akita off the cliff to admit that they may have been wrong. Or at the very least that they may have exaggerated the estimates a little. When people cannot admit their less than perfect they come up with all sorts of theories, the one that seems to fly here is market manipulation. The reason most smart people do not buy it is, we all like isk, why market manipulate downwards if your playing a gap? That seems more tricky than it's worth. Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
evehost.homeip.net:9991
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2010.11.17 14:02:00 -
[234]
Originally by: Tasko Pal
Then where did the quantities for the block orders come from? And why hold down the price artificially? The strategy you outline above works much better when they center the spread so that they get as much buy as sell volume (that is, "market price").
Given that the average price hasn't moved much for the past week and falls about halfway between the hi and low, this indicates to me that we have a bit of short term stability and a modest indication that maybe the price isn't being held down, even with the huge slabs on top.
As an aside, it's been a while since I was on MD, but is this talk of market manipulation going to be a THING every time some big good falls from a peak? I was seeing it with the thread on intact armor plates too.
From what I can see the quantities holding it back are quite large but not "millions" - I wasn't saying there are no stocks, or that the stocks are small, I'm just saying I don't think there are millionS being held back.
There are many ways to read conspiracy theories into this, and a lot of it might not be even close to the truth! I am just giving possibilities and am definitely not pretending to know the answer. Another strategy however that the blocking orders might allow:
Someone who does have a stock of quite a bit may wish to see other people's stock disappear. If the price looks stable, and the gap trading happens enough, then those with pre-PI stock will start dumping. Especially those that saw the 80k spike and missed it, they may think "well this is as good as it gets!" thus removing competition and ensuring that your own stock will be worth more. If those blocking orders are removed the price will then be allowed to climb and you'll be a) holding more backstock than others and b) have less people to compete with when you try sell it, so the market wont dip as much after the next time it spikes.
I still think the price can go higher, once more stocks dry up. If the demand outstrips the production of new supply that is .. Otherwise it can stay at this level forever, with bought amount and sold amount balancing out. This could be a strategy used by a producer who uses tech and has some stock from pre-PI, to put in large blocking orders to ensure that the price does not rise.
How many people are 'involved in teh conspiracy!' or whether any exists, or how many strategies are being used by how many people, it's all fun guessing at the moment .. we may never know the real answers though! ;)
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Adolf Axiom
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Posted - 2010.11.17 14:08:00 -
[235]
Edited by: Adolf Axiom on 17/11/2010 14:09:14
Originally by: King Aires
There is a major reluctance for people who followed Akita off the cliff to admit that they may have been wrong. Or at the very least that they may have exaggerated the estimates a little. When people cannot admit their less than perfect they come up with all sorts of theories, the one that seems to fly here is market manipulation. The reason most smart people do not buy it is, we all like isk, why market manipulate downwards if your playing a gap? That seems more tricky than it's worth.
I think the main reason people suspect a manipulation is not due to being stubborn. When testing the buy and sell orders the same names crop up again and again, and buy/sell orders from the same person outbid themselves often, implying a desire to keep buy/sell prices within a certain gap-size. Whether it's a clever manipulation or some backwards ass-hat having lols is another matter, but why would you outbid your own orders unless you are trying to influence the price? Why would you do this on both the buy AND sell side, unless you had a reason to?
The estimations on supply/demand that were worked out were fairly accurate given the data we've got to hand about the moons etc. in play. Whether the price rises to 100+ or not is more a guess than an estimate, it may be that the peak will be 75 and it'll never get higher? It's fairly obvious to me though that without the blocking orders and the manipulations (whatever the reason for them) then the price would not be steady at 58-62, it would be higher.
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.23 16:00:00 -
[236]
Lots of tech dissapeared off the market over the weekend, we're bumping against the 800K blocking order again... I wonder if it'll get dented this time |
SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.11.23 17:09:00 -
[237]
Originally by: volhar Lots of tech dissapeared off the market over the weekend, we're bumping against the 800K blocking order again... I wonder if it'll get dented this time
or magically disappear...
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megar scopion
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Posted - 2010.11.24 03:06:00 -
[238]
That 800k order just disappeared. Judging by the sales volume today it was purchased by someone.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.11.24 05:21:00 -
[239]
Originally by: megar scopion That 800k order just disappeared. Judging by the sales volume today it was purchased by someone.
Had a leftover 156k from an older 250k order at exactly 65k. It was purchased by a character named "Aliella". That was a nice 10+ bil in one single move. _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Johney Stardust
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Posted - 2010.11.24 05:51:00 -
[240]
While in a private channel I was told that T'amber purchased the 800k block.
Interesting I thought.
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