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Mella Elcus
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Posted - 2010.09.23 22:14:00 -
[1]
So, last time I checked the price it was at ~55k, and now suddenly it's up at almost 70k. How come no one's mentioned it?
Looks like something shady happened last Sunday, little over 2 billion units traded compared to the "normal" 1 billion, but what do I know?
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.23 22:19:00 -
[2]
You'd know more if you had read the two other threads talking about Technetium made in the last days. - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.09.23 22:39:00 -
[3]
I think no one's talking about it because it's doing exactly what most tech watchers are expecting it to. My only concern is how high it will go before the devs rejig something.
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Companion Trollin
You are going too fast
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Posted - 2010.09.23 22:49:00 -
[4]
Is the new Dysprosium.
♥
Originally by: CCP Shadow Off-topic posts dealing with sexual orientation have been removed. Please keep this discussion on-topic.
Thanks.
-- Shadow
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.23 22:49:00 -
[5]
Originally by: SetrakDark I think no one's talking about it because it's doing exactly what most tech watchers are expecting it to. My only concern is how high it will go before the devs rejig something.
If their analyst is worth 1/10 of his paycheck, they are not going to fiddle with it if the price stays hyperbolic like it is now. That motion is often either a massive shift to a new equilibrium or an exhaustion move. In case it's the former, it has to stabilize at a quite high price and for a long time before they do something. - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.09.23 23:15:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
If their analyst is worth 1/10 of his paycheck,
They pay that moron err economist??
What a sad day
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.23 23:22:00 -
[7]
Somone traded a billion units of Tech huh? That's quite something.
Anyways, in seriousness the only thing that's surprising here is how long it took before Tech finally broke through first 30k and then 40k after the bubble around last Christmas. There's a couple of threads talking about it on the front page here though, just take a look at VV's and 12345's threads for a look at what's going on right now and what kind of pattern is likely to emerge, or try to dig up Akita T's awesome thread from last year which explains why this is happening and what eventual stable price levels might be.
In the immediate future we seem to be looking at the price stabilizing somewhere between 80 and 120K, with various proposed patterns of ups and downs still to come. The products made from Tech (nanotransistors, fullerides and further down the road the MPC's) can be relatively easily worked out from Tech price so there isn't a hell of a lot left to talk about tbh.
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Sralack
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Posted - 2010.09.23 23:45:00 -
[8]
The reason Tech is going up is because the NC has instructed all members to not sell Tech unless it's for 125k a unit. There I said it there is a cartel and they are out to get all of Eve because well Tech belongs to the NC.
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Celi Annor
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Posted - 2010.09.24 02:30:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Sralack The reason Tech is going up is because the NC has instructed all members to not sell Tech unless it's for 125k a unit. There I said it there is a cartel and they are out to get all of Eve because well Tech belongs to the NC.
Where did you get this intel, i got alts all over NC command and havnt heard the 125k mark. Sold my tech too early.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 06:08:00 -
[10]
If you want to know what is happening to technetium read this thread. Nanotransistors
I explained why it was going to happen in there in detail a day or two before the price rise that you mentioned.
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Inbrainsane
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Posted - 2010.09.24 08:36:00 -
[11]
If you want to know what is going on with technetium, read my post.
Open eve, load your jita market char open tech market, price history, one year.
You will notice, that Tech was worthless one year ago. Then CCP changed T2 production and very large quantities of technetium were traded for about 1 Month. Traded by speculators mainly. During the last year a spike in quantities always meant a short drop in prices. The reason was: People were cashing in their stockpiles. And stockpiles kept the price stable at 30k. You can see how a rise in price always correlated to a decline in volume. This means not an increased demand, but a shortened supply was the reason for price change. But how can the supply go down? Tech is mined from moons, almost all Tech moons are tapped, supply is constant. The answer is again: Stockpiles getting exhausted. Stockpiles that were created during several years of eve, when tech was dirt cheap.
And today: There are still large stockpiles left, but they are small compared to the ones from the old times. Tech is the bottleneck in T2 Production. POS fuel is dropping, that means many other T2 Materials are available abundantly. This means pressure on Tech. I would not be surprised if it is above 100k at the end of the year. And who knows, maybe you need Tech to build that Sansha Mothership that is coming.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.24 08:59:00 -
[12]
Quote: Sold my tech too early
Going from "unrealized profit & losses" to "realized profit" is not a bad thing.
Plus, if you read my RL finance thread you'd see you had *two* further opportunities to re-buy a position and profit again. You'd have a compounded wallet from your first sales and a larger unrealized profit running right now. - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 09:37:00 -
[13]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 09:43:34
Originally by: Inbrainsane
Open eve, load your jita market char open tech market, price history, one year.
Thanks for your negativity.
You evidently haven't read the thread. You also haven't seen my old stock piles of technetium and tech product lines that where purchased before Atika T published his spreadsheets, and you also haven't seen that I'm one of the few that haven't sold off his stocks yet.
The only reason I published in that thread was basically a Rant because I am sick of waiting so long for the price to rise to what it should be. Builders and it seems most traders are stupid and dont think about things. Read the thread next time.
edit I should say that my post also was at a time tech had just risen a heap and people like Atika T and others where starting to suggest it was going to stay at 60k isk a unit for a while. That was what cause my Rant and subsequent information.
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.24 09:51:00 -
[14]
So then... anyone running bets on where the eventual stable price will end up after this little roller-coaster?
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.24 10:32:00 -
[15]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 24/09/2010 10:33:04
Originally by: AnakieNine The only reason I published in that thread was basically a Rant because I am sick of waiting so long for the price to rise to what it should be. Builders and it seems most traders are stupid and dont think about things. Read the thread next time.
Markets need to breath, every market has its own "temper" (search for "greeks" in finance). The big markets also have a large inertia.
If you check the last days graph you see the market is really working hard to rise as fast as it can, you can't ask it to go beyond its gimbal limits. Look at how price is well above the 5 SMA line, it means it's pushing so hard that it will have a pullback next. - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 11:03:00 -
[16]
That's a better question. Its never been about will it go up. Its always been around when will it go up.
Short term it is really hard to say. It isn't something I am really confident on predicting as it is easy for 2 or 3 out of major influences to change in combinations that will either allow for continued increase or prevent it in the short term. Long term its much easier to answer as even Inbrainsane let us all know. :)
That said. Let me have a rough guess. If there are any investors left that have spare isk it is looking more and more likely that one of them will say what the hell and buyout the remaining sell orders and set a price at 120k+. Considering the large increase over the current months and the nano/fullerides price and now more important microprocessor price it will most likely stay there.
At that price anyone with stock will be trying to sell some and it should finally start a downward trend as people battle hard for sales (short term). The delay in people wanting to actually buy after the 50% increase in region value jump to 120k etc will cause a build up of sell orders which will help with a short term drop. Also helped along by 3 days of well below daily sales in jita while the regional % "above regional price" drops to a more happier value. People are scared of paying to much above the region value and hence cause a delay in the sell/buy ratio. End result it might drop to 100k a unit. (Nice round number) before stabilizing and climbing again. Buyers wont want to buy above 100k and sellers wont wont to sell below 100.
If no one buys the sell orders out then its multiple jumps of 5k a rise up until 100k where it "may" stabilize for a short time. ie 75 its there now), 81, 90, 95, 100. The jumps are relative to those 200k-350k sell orders that have been appearing daily for the last month. But that is short term. Long term which might not be that far behind is up again.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 12:52:00 -
[17]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 12:59:49
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 24/09/2010 10:33:04 it means it's pushing so hard that it will have a pullback next.
Normally I would 100% say "This." However no one is really arguing that it isn't worth more. It still isn't up to the predicted post patch day prices.
That is the first thing. The belief that it will keep going up will stop sellers selling it below 100k a unit once it reaches it.
Secondly. The Technetium supply is fixed unlike most items. I dont think old stockpiles are making much effect, if any effect at all on the markets anymore. People that felt it was worth less are most likely out of the market by now. Even Akita T sold a million units a few weeks ago. Yes it was him being eccentric. Yes he has more and he has also sold more. :) There is nothing like having liquid isk and its easy enough to make returns elsewhere.
The main reason however is limited people. Technetium has a very limited number of people with-in its market. Its unlike most eve items and pretty much every real world item which economists and their formulas generally deal with. You need to think outside the box and question your real world assumptions at its roots. This is why I say this
Originally by: AnakieNine The problem with forecasting, as well as probability and statistics isn't really math. It's the inability of people to successfully understand when they should and shouldn't use a particular method.
The next thing people fail at, is that they weight the conclusion with their own bias opinions.
Always question every assumption and view the problem from many angles.
Few people do all these things well.
So with less people in a market comes less competition and with that a drop is likely. Robotics is a market item with lots of people in it and follows real world examples closer. Those player have to play the 0.01 games that CCP force on us and end results is a force back to the current region price levels quiet very fast. Especially when ccp provide that annoying buy/sell confirmation screen which tells every players that they are paying or selling for to much. It often just takes one or two players to sell at the old regional value or at best closer to the regional value as they don't play the 0.01 isk and lemmings will follow. It starts the landslide back to the old regional value. From this we move up and down as supply and demand but in smaller steps.
Anywasy the less players in tech market combined with the fixed supply and no other forces on it means that there aren't to many 0.01 games played by the suppliers (i.e The moon miners). Moon miners are the predominate force in the market. Those moon miners that do play the 0.01 game drop out of the market fairly quickly once their limited mined stock is sold. Hence it allows for the normal sell orders to be sold from normal lazy moon miners that have long ago realized you dont have to update every 5 minutes.
Only traders and large competitive holders shifting into a 0.01 battle situation will get the tech moon owners frustrated enough to start dropping their sell price by much. And that will only stand for as long as the battling traders and have stock.
There was a real lack of any large correction in dyspo moon goo even when the 7 trillion isk in moon goo expoit appeared. dyspo price dropped however it never really dropped in large chunks as proper moon miners new it was worth more and exploiters wanted a nice price. Few people still in the market etc. Tech will be similar, assuming the price stays at its high value for 3+ days so that the regional average % the CCP should us stablises closer to the price. It wont quickly drop below this regional average at any rate.
Enjoy
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zz01shagsme
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Posted - 2010.09.24 13:24:00 -
[18]
What sort of rise can you expectin the price of those products associated with technetium?
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 13:41:00 -
[19]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 13:45:53 If your talking about nanotransistors/fullerides and the things they make?
Not much. Infact no more than has already happened is need to sustain the tech price rises. Read other thread.
Fullrides could go up a couple of hundred isk a unit.
Platium tech needs to go up to 50k which isn't hard to do and will occur when/if tech gets to 100k. Apart from that figures look enough to sustain the price if they don't change.
Demand and supply of the nanos, fullerides, and microprocessors will have a much bigger effect on their own prices, short term and will be turbulent for some time to come. Hence could still have some nice profits there if sold at the right time. Edits.. Usual fixing of bad typos and speeling as always. :) |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.24 14:18:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 24/09/2010 14:19:32 First of all I want to thank you, AnakieNine because you are one of the rare IQ friendly posters like Mme, Raw23 and few others and you indeed bring in very enjoyable arguments. So, please don't see my ugly style of my posts as anything confrontational or nasty, it's just my garbage type of English that shows.
Quote:
Technetium has a very limited number of people with-in its market. Its unlike most eve items and pretty much every real world item which economists and their formulas generally deal with. You need to think outside the box and question your real world assumptions at its roots
There are limited number of people RL markets. And there are RL illiquid markets and even RL limited people AND illiquid markets. So far Technetium has shown a behavior that shows sufficient liquidity, it's not whipsawing, it's not gapping. It presented multiple retracement easy entries for late comers (all discussed in my RL finance thread) that behaved 1:1 with regular markets like i.e. Dow Jones.
Therefore I have to keep the RL model good till proven wrong (which could be totally possible, even tomorrow!). If I invested in Technetium (I didn't, I love RL finance but am not interested in getting e-rich) at this point I'd have made TONS, therefore the RL model worked well enough so far.
Also, you talk about "fixed supply" like it's some peculiar condition. What about RL commodity markets of scarce / limited goods like gold? There are not massive gold faucets yet it's "just a market", not something incredibly unique.
- Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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zz01shagsme
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Posted - 2010.09.24 14:48:00 -
[21]
Originally by: AnakieNine Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 14:28:50 Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 14:12:19 Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 14:01:31 If your talking about nanotransistors/fullerides and the things they make?
Not much. Infact no more than has already happened is need to sustain the tech price rises. Read other thread.
Fullrides could go up a couple of hundred isk a unit.
Platium tech needs to go up to 50k which isn't hard to do and will occur when/if tech gets to 100k. Apart from that figures look enough to sustain the technetium price if they don't change.
Demand/supply of the nanos, fullerides, and microprocessors will have a much bigger effect on their own prices short term as the high technetium price has throw builders out-of-wack and also disrupted supply lines. Those prices will be turbulent for some time to come. Hence could still have some nice profits there, if sold at the right time. Edits.. Usual fixing of bad typos and speeling as always. :)
Edit.. Looking at the current numbers and a few other indicators we might actually have a couple of days at 80k a unit while the regional average catches up. That last 10k was quick and that 311k sell order should hold. Also a chance of a few people that have stock selling off with this comment. :)
Interestng may i ask then if the price of manufacturing these things has risen why you dont expect them to rise by the same amount? i'd expect more profit from an initial 1.4bil investment in technetium alone. the 1.4bil being the cost of 20k units of technetium...with the current jump in price, it is actually pointless in manufacturing technetium products becuase you might be able to 20k one week but the following week you wouldn't.
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.24 16:22:00 -
[22]
Originally by: AnakieNine
... That last 10k was quick and that 311k sell order should hold.
I really doubt that it will. At least not for more than 2 days at best.
Anyways, what I find interesting is that there has been less daily trading happening during the 40K level and now during this upturn than there was during the prolonged 30K level. I have no idea whatsoever what that might mean, if anything
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.09.24 16:42:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Business Classy Anyways, what I find interesting is that there has been less daily trading happening during the 40K level and now during this upturn than there was during the prolonged 30K level. I have no idea whatsoever what that might mean, if anything
More amateur speculators selling to buy orders, and correspondingly more flipping. Now it's all the rich and patient speculators putting up straight sell orders. That's my guess.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 16:50:00 -
[24]
Just in case you missed the update in my post above.
Quote:
Looking at the current numbers and a few other indicators we might actually have a couple of days at 80k a unit while the regional average catches up. That last 10k was quick and that 311k sell order should hold. Also a chance of a few people that have stock selling off with this comment. :) [/Quote]
Ok. I'm not sure where to start on answering your other questions Vaerah.
First off no offence at all.
For the record statistical analysis is the only way you can go about it. I hope I didn't give that opinion. Game or real life the math is the same. Maybe my simplification of the problem and trying to keep it simple for those that don't do numbers made you think this?
I also agree with everything you have shown. I do however find its a just starting point in game as well as out of it. So don't get me wrong. It is my background and I do love it but it is also just one part of the equation. For many its normally just the part they use to prove to confuse people and prove there own Opinion.
ok. Fixed supply-If you felt I was suggesting this was some peculiar condition I didn't exactly mean to. Was just adding its weight to the model so to speak. It is however a constraint that you have to consider and a difference that is interesting when compared to most normal elastic items that people trade in eve. That was the point. Why could technetium be different. I might be wrong too. :)
Gold!! Now that is a very interesting topic and one I have followed personally since early childhood.
It is also one of those interesting items as well. Nothing is truly unique, but I put it in the unique model category that deserves its own model to predict its future values correctly. Even if it has been boring for a long time. Forcasting maths for single items are great for predicting one or two steps ahead but with each step into the future simple std deviations start causing wild variations in accuracy. Use models. :)
Gold literally has little "true" value. Governments stock it. It's role has changed over the years. It's price is dictated a lot by technical development in the mining industry not unlike Oil. Double its price and you find new deposits and new ways of extracting it.
Its not rare. It's absolutely everywhere. Even in sea water. If I remember rightly if we could extract all the gold dissolved in sea water alone we would have enough to give every man woman and child on earth 40 ounces of gold each. Forget about calculating what is in the ground. The problem with gold is extracting it. Stick more people into getting it or better techniques and the supply will go up. We are stuck with CCP and a fixed moon rate until they change it. In all honestly I would try Queuing theory on technetium as it would be a more interesting real time model of what is happening. And when it might hit the wall. I also think that we need a cycle or a few days at 80k a unit after thinking more about the liquid isk on builders accounts. A lot may have had to reduce there reaction cycles to cover the extra isk they have needed to re-buy tech. The profits in the end line products are probably a sign of this. I guess thats the problem with stats alone. You lose so much of the details. Its like an animal tracker looking at prints in the sand. You know its a fox, you can work out is weight, its direction, but not always why its going that way.
Thankfully Eve is so much simpler than real life. Cause and effects are restricted and easily defined. More factual constraints and less rules of thumbs which are generally used in equations. Most of all years of real life can be condensed into weeks or days in eve. New technology changes aren't a problem. The closest thing we have is CCP and that is twice a year. With a bit of logic you should be able to make some assumptions about them too and reduce any negative effects. Not sure if I have answered your real question. Hopefully I hav
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Celi Annor
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Posted - 2010.09.24 16:50:00 -
[25]
Few weeks ago I offloaded a large chunk of technetium and posted about it in another thread. Said we would see 75k-80k shortly without any problems (when tech was at 50k sell)
The trend is "too" strong. I just bought up maybe half a mil units and looking at my transaction histroy... all noob alts. Lol not a single NC seller. Are they really withholding thier stocks.. or are they selling through these 5-10 noob alts.
And who wants to take out the large sell at 81k with me?
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.24 17:27:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Business Classy
Originally by: AnakieNine
... That last 10k was quick and that 311k sell order should hold.
I really doubt that it will. At least not for more than 2 days at best.
Anyways, what I find interesting is that there has been less daily trading happening during the 40K level and now during this upturn than there was during the prolonged 30K level. I have no idea whatsoever what that might mean, if anything
I didn't think it would last a day but I'm not so sure any more its 50% chance of going or staying. see reason in the top of last post. It really needs a 2 day hold so we can rise again without questions and without as many negative issue from the way the game is setup. Mainly % above regional value. Expect a few sell offs. How long before it rises again will tell you more about how much stock is out there.
As for your second question the technetium daily sales volume has been dropping since around a month after patch day. This is a sign of reduced supply or demand or perhaps a product "bypassing" the market and going straight to the end products or builders. Picking which one is hard. Normally what happens is volume doesn't change a lot. It stays the same and the price moves up/down to a new level to encourage more people into increasing/decreasing units of that item. Even down until people don't bother selling as much. Hanger stocks increase.
Since in this case prices kept increasing while daily units didn't increase it shows a volume elasticity problem and supply disappearing from somewhere. Derr.. Yeah ok, we all know fixed moon count.. So it clearly suggests a shortage. What was the supply that has disappeared? Years of tech moons mined and not sold when it wasn't a big cash cow. A fair bit of it stayed in peoples hangers. Some of it was sold to speculators and the rest has been added to daily turn over ever since. 9 months is a long time to hold stock waiting for the price to go up. So a lot of the speculators have been selling. As each sold the daily supply disappeared. Judging by this I doubt there is much speculated stock left in hangers as people believe. We are on the cusp with not enough left to force it back down for long.
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True Sight
THORN Syndicate Controlled Chaos
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Posted - 2010.09.24 18:37:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Celi Annor Few weeks ago I offloaded a large chunk of technetium and posted about it in another thread. Said we would see 75k-80k shortly without any problems (when tech was at 50k sell)
The trend is "too" strong. I just bought up maybe half a mil units and looking at my transaction histroy... all noob alts. Lol not a single NC seller. Are they really withholding thier stocks.. or are they selling through these 5-10 noob alts.
And who wants to take out the large sell at 81k with me?
Most people selling/buying extremely valuable goods use trade alts, due to the trade skills Accounting/Broker relations having a huge effect on profit margins when you're talking about more than a billion isk per buy/sell order.
Additionally most people are paranoid, they don't want people to know what characters are transporting the valuable stuff, want to avoid war-decs etc --------------------------------------
True Sight President Foiritan Emissary --<<!SUPPORT DRONES!>>--
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.24 19:59:00 -
[28]
And another sizable blocking order wades in... looks like someone's working for some stability :)
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Inbrainsane
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Posted - 2010.09.24 22:34:00 -
[29]
Edited by: Inbrainsane on 24/09/2010 22:37:06 Anakin,
wtf?
I am not negative. I DID read the thread. I draw similar conclusions. I just wanted to simplify things a bit. And you mix up indicators for a price change and reasons for a price change. Price changes on correlating products are indicators. Changes in supply and demand are reasons. And you were telling us a detailed and true story about correlating producst(nanotransistors and so on). So I felt like adding a story about why Technetium is so special and why stockpiles and traded volume plays a role.
Ah, on that note, you started to mention volume just a few posts after mine.
Sorry if my you felt offended by my post, no pun was intended. So stop the flame already.
*edit* Damn you if I get kicked out of Goonfleet because I am too nice to you. *edit*
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.24 23:46:00 -
[30]
I think he probably just misunderstood the 'look at the year long history graph' line you opened that post with, that you were indicating we were having a similar bubble as a year ago, though that wasn't what you meant.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.25 02:20:00 -
[31]
@Inbrainsane
Hehe. Sorry, wasn't a flame. I make flames real personal. :) I probably did read a bit into it.
Now please put your goonhat on. Your in public. |
Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.09.27 11:36:00 -
[32]
the price seems to lower already, the end ? |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.09.27 11:50:00 -
[33]
Originally by: Raid'En the price seems to lower already, the end ?
I just had a flashback to old B-rated horror movies where right before the credits they add a shot of an egg of the theme creature over the text reading "THE END" while some dramatic music plays and a question mark materializes so it reads "The End ?"
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Inbrainsane
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Posted - 2010.09.27 12:29:00 -
[34]
This is not the end. Massive resistance at 80k/u though.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.27 12:54:00 -
[35]
Originally by: Inbrainsane This is not the end. Massive resistance at 80k/u though.
Look at the 77k candle shadows - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.09.27 16:46:00 -
[36]
Edited by: TornSoul on 27/09/2010 16:54:40
Originally by: Inbrainsane Massive resistance at 80k/u though.
Disagree that we are seeing resistance.
Simply the usual weekend/monday behavior.
Weekend : Prices&volume move faster than normal. Monday : Prices settle down again, after a hyper weekend.
BIG Lottery |
TheCrazyT
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Posted - 2010.09.27 18:30:00 -
[37]
Weirdly eve-metrics shows only a weird trend in "The Forge".
http://www.eve-metrics.com/market/501/items/16649#statistics
Translation: "It's a trap! Sell all your stuff!!!"
Oh well ... actualy do what you want, I have no clue if the market is manipulated or not, just think its weird.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.27 21:13:00 -
[38]
As quoted before any price stabilizing occured.
Originally by: AnakieNine Edited by: AnakieNine on 24/09/2010 14:28:50 Looking at the current numbers and a few other indicators we might actually have a couple of days at 80k a unit while the regional average catches up. That last 10k was quick and that 311k sell order should hold. Also a chance of a few people that have stock selling off with this comment. :)
So looks good and is moving as expected. Sell orders are only 20% or 200k units above last months normal sell order volumes. Which is good considering such a large price increase. Jita Daily sell Volume is also back to normal levels and below the 1 million units a day.
Combined, these show that the market is accepting the price and no large sell off's are still occuring. Why? Either people think it is still going up, or stock piles no longer exist to the extent of the past.
I say give it another week and it will probably go up again. Most people will want 100k. Its a number thing.. The only thing that will keep us at a current holding pattern is the larger volume of sell orders up for Nanotranistors and a bit higher sell order listing for fullerides. Which in itself is interesting for a few reasons. I'll be watching this. :)
Microprocessors look really good as they continue to put a positive outlook for technetium. Still a first for 6 months.
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.09.28 10:46:00 -
[39]
seems someone is trying to lower the price, and people are following, i saw really low quantites orders, and now some biggers have followed ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.28 11:39:00 -
[40]
Yeah. BeeFive and Rayne someone? (I think) has been trading the price gap for the last 3 days. Completely camping the buy and sell orders continuously for the last 24-30 hours.
Lots of small and multiple sell orders have gone up to bait Moon miners. It wasn't a big problem until today when they seemed to have enough stock. That or enough people continuously selling to them in frustration to outbid the sell orders every 5 minutes during offpeak time. Hence the large string of sell orders running downward all day. I saw a lot of moon miners selling out to buy orders as technetium holders got really frustrated. Straight after about 1/2 the stock was replace on 3-4 sell orders. I also saw the buy orders increase time and again and narrow until they where filled again and again. Which in turn increased the problems as Beehive was almost always the highest placed buy order. Returning it to a sell order.
It will be interesting to see where this goes. Technetium moon miners aren't very used to updating their own bids every few minutes. It was a reasons I listed for prices staying up. No 0.01-ers. :)
I guess I will wait the week while stock should drop at whatever price it settles at and see what happens. One good thing is if the price drops it can hurt the gap trader too. As its hard to flip stock efficiently. More than once I saw them selling for roughly the same as they purchased it for.
His wallet seems smallish with a lack of buy orders when he has to many buy orders up.
fyi. He is also trading nano-transistors too.
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.28 14:22:00 -
[41]
Ah, nice to see the behaviour looked at closely, i'm not active enough (log in maybe 1ce per day to see where hte price has gone) so thanks for that Anakie
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.28 15:22:00 -
[42]
Interesting.
The top 5 sell orders just so happen to offset another sell order by exactly 5 minutes. Well Plus or minus 2 seconds.
Coincidence?
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Einear Lightfingers
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Posted - 2010.09.28 15:38:00 -
[43]
Edited by: Einear Lightfingers on 28/09/2010 15:39:58 Then the trick to get him out of market is to buy his sell orders as they get lower and don't sell back. Create your own stock and wait for the price to go back up. Even if you only turn a 2K profit per unit you can still make a good deal. Tech is definitely going to go back to 80K or better. This is a small time operation and it won't be long before his stock is purchased and his buy orders stop getting filled.
Meanwhile as you increase your stock you drive down your average purchase price further increasing your profit when you sell.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.28 16:43:00 -
[44]
No great hurry. Its kind of interesting to watch.
Lets see how long it last.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.09.28 16:44:00 -
[45]
Originally by: Einear Lightfingers Edited by: Einear Lightfingers on 28/09/2010 15:39:58 Then the trick to get him out of market is to buy his sell orders as they get lower and don't sell back. Create your own stock and wait for the price to go back up. Even if you only turn a 2K profit per unit you can still make a good deal. Tech is definitely going to go back to 80K or better. This is a small time operation and it won't be long before his stock is purchased and his buy orders stop getting filled.
Meanwhile as you increase your stock you drive down your average purchase price further increasing your profit when you sell.
Which you just did, but you caught one of my orders I was using to drive them down with.
Oops.
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.29 09:40:00 -
[46]
Originally by: corestwo
Originally by: Einear Lightfingers Edited by: Einear Lightfingers on 28/09/2010 15:39:58 Then the trick to get him out of market is to buy his sell orders as they get lower and don't sell back. Create your own stock and wait for the price to go back up. Even if you only turn a 2K profit per unit you can still make a good deal. Tech is definitely going to go back to 80K or better. This is a small time operation and it won't be long before his stock is purchased and his buy orders stop getting filled.
Meanwhile as you increase your stock you drive down your average purchase price further increasing your profit when you sell.
Which you just did, but you caught one of my orders I was using to drive them down with.
Oops.
Heh
Well despite the lulz this did worry me a bit, but a little stability during this week has pretty much been exactly what Tech needed as Anakie and I think VV pointed out for a stable continuation of the rise.
There were about 2m units between 75k and 80K yesterday at about this time, now there are closer to 1.5m units, so a very rough estimate would be for the upward trend to start moving again around the the start of the weekend, which is usually the time for this kind of thing anyway.
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Solara Solo
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Posted - 2010.09.29 18:42:00 -
[47]
Quick question, Weren't moons supposed to degrade after a time and respawn somewhere else? Imagine that tech moon showing up in the enemies back yard.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.09.29 19:21:00 -
[48]
Originally by: Solara Solo Quick question, Weren't moons supposed to degrade after a time and respawn somewhere else? Imagine that tech moon showing up in the enemies back yard.
I think they thought about it and decided against it.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.30 04:23:00 -
[49]
They really should do this.
It would mean a return to the career of the old moons mappers. Currently people just go to websites and have all the info they need. It would also allow active moon scanners who generally aren't rich to hit the jackpot like it was in its heyday. That is until it gets taken off them. :)
I also wonder if it would be worth mining all your crap moons in the hope that you discover a rarer resource underneath. Just not sure how you would have not scanned it before. :(
This would be one of the best things CCP could do for the game mechanics. Stop allowing things to be stagnant like the current system! Game players like turmoil and opportunities. Give the new player more chances to hit it rich etc.
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Xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.09.30 08:13:00 -
[50]
Originally by: AnakieNine They really should do this.
It would mean a return to the career of the old moons mappers. Currently people just go to websites and have all the info they need. It would also allow active moon scanners who generally aren't rich to hit the jackpot like it was in its heyday. That is until it gets taken off them. :)
I also wonder if it would be worth mining all your crap moons in the hope that you discover a rarer resource underneath. Just not sure how you would have not scanned it before. :(
This would be one of the best things CCP could do for the game mechanics. Stop allowing things to be stagnant like the current system! Game players like turmoil and opportunities. Give the new player more chances to hit it rich etc.
I'd say CCP needs to spice up a little bit but not too much. Say all moons get shuffled every once in a while but certain types of moons should only be available within certain area, e.g. technetium within only Guristas space.
Whenever a moon gets depleted like wormhole dies off, a same type of moon with more or less likely the same amount of containment should spawn somewhere around same region or constellation.
Alliances are currently facing constant amount of resources anywhere they go from Sov. upgrade, and this, at least to me, effectively kills off alliance warfare more than lag issue does. Moon re-spawn at a seemingly random place won't help that issue either. |
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Da Trader
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Posted - 2010.09.30 08:44:00 -
[51]
I think that random moon spawning is good, not bad - it leads to massive shifts in incomes Also alchemy for all rare moon materials should be done possible, so there are no hard bottlenecks (and no 'sky in the limit for tech' as well)
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.09.30 09:28:00 -
[52]
I definitely see the attraction in random moon spawning but ...
Wouldn't it be more or less impossible to explain without resorting to something like 'the fairies did it'. Rather immersion-breaking given its departure from everything that science does know about moons.
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.09.30 11:16:00 -
[53]
Edited by: Raid''En on 30/09/2010 11:17:55
Originally by: RAW23 I definitely see the attraction in random moon spawning but ...
Wouldn't it be more or less impossible to explain without resorting to something like 'the fairies did it'. Rather immersion-breaking given its departure from everything that science does know about moons.
well it will be a bit hard to explain some natural phenomenon doing this on all moon every xxxx months... a processus needing thoousand / millions of years would be easy to explain, but for some months :/ would be easy to do using some human-created technology however but well after all, lore said wormhole spawning at some points can be very dangerous for a system, so why not using this explication for modification of moon material on a system ? must have a way to do it. this could even be included on incursion lore, as they use very specifics wormholes, we can say after they come womwhere, and the battle who follow moons become affected. ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.09.30 11:54:00 -
[54]
Originally by: RAW23 Rather immersion-breaking
*cough*regeneratingstaticasteroidbelts*cough* _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.09.30 12:49:00 -
[55]
I think the two most likely scenarios are convoys and comets.
Back in the day (before they rejiggered the veldspar respawn rate) 0.0 rats would sometimes escort haulers full of trit. This was seen as a temporary rebalancing. I see no reason why they wouldn't do this again with Tech as a short-term stop gap measure.
Longer term, the idea of introducing random and rare celestial objects than can be mined for whatever Dr. E wants to inject into the game also seems to be a possibility.
Can you imagine the screaming if it ever became known that CCP planted a tech moon or moons in alliance territory? I don't think that is ever going to happen.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.09.30 12:55:00 -
[56]
They can always just push all the w-space moons full of minerals _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.30 12:55:00 -
[57]
yes after all it is far harder to drop a hauler, umm sorry freighter full of technetium in an alliance territory.
:)
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.09.30 13:00:00 -
[58]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: RAW23 Rather immersion-breaking
*cough*regeneratingstaticasteroidbelts*cough*
lol - very true. I guess I find things more problematic the bigger and more familiar the objects are.
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Malcanis
Caldari Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
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Posted - 2010.09.30 13:07:00 -
[59]
Originally by: Akita T They can always just push all the w-space moons full of minerals
They could always let the K-space moons "deplete" down to a fraction of their current production, then add lots more R32/R64 moons in new "U-space" on the other side of W-space, with U-space only being accessible via C5/C6 systems.
Then high end moon minerals would be valuable because it was difficult and dangerous to move them, not just because they were scarce.
</wonderfuldream>
Malcanis' Law: Whenever a mechanics change is proposed on behalf of "new players", that change is always to the overwhelming advantage of richer, older players. |
Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.09.30 13:35:00 -
[60]
Originally by: AnakieNine yes after all it is far harder to drop a hauler, umm sorry freighter full of technetium in an alliance territory.
:)
I may not think much of CCP, but I'm pretty sure they could figure out that a freighter load of tech is not the same as a freighter full of trit.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.09.30 13:44:00 -
[61]
Don't worry I was just trolling :) The point was a freighter or a moon? Both could be used if one believed CCP wanted to benefit someone. I don't.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.09.30 14:05:00 -
[62]
One moon produces 876K units per year, worth 70b+ isk. On the other hand they could drop 2400 units every day in random 0.0 systems for 365 days worth about 200M isk each.
Which one would raise the biggest stink? Remember that the devs said back in November that they would make small adjustments to the supply if it needed rebalancing, not another huge overhaul.
Messing with moons clearly says "we didn't know what the heck we we're doing the first time." While it may be clear to all of us that they didn't, admitting it is another matter.
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.09.30 15:03:00 -
[63]
Originally by: Akita T They can always just push all the w-space moons full of minerals
strange thing to see someone so well know here saying something that would get w-space totally overpowered :)
Originally by: Malcanis
They could always let the K-space moons "deplete" down to a fraction of their current production, then add lots more R32/R64 moons in new "U-space" on the other side of W-space, with U-space only being accessible via C5/C6 systems.
Then high end moon minerals would be valuable because it was difficult and dangerous to move them, not just because they were scarce.
</wonderfuldream>
that's an idea :) but you know a big part of c5-6 are empty, so not sure it would be that hard to haul this ;) ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
Xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.09.30 15:04:00 -
[64]
Edited by: Xylopia on 30/09/2010 15:07:20
Originally by: Claire Voyant Future additional sources besides moons
Beyond Dominion, we are looking towards adding new sources of moon materials so that we will have a dynamic supply which can respond to the changing needs of the marketplace and help resolve the static supply issues we currently see. Some potential routes we have already mentioned previously here and are common suggestions on the forums. We are definitely looking hard at doing something cool here in the future along these lines.
Gah! A sudden moment of piffany hits me!
How about randomly scheduled Kestal with cargo-full of technetium departing from Jita 4-4? Your chance of retrieving the cargo is highly up to our beloved Scotty's mood.
Yes, anyone?
Edit: the amount of technetium in the cargo should be equivalent to 74 Plexes.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.09.30 15:50:00 -
[65]
Originally by: Xylopia A sudden moment of piffany hits me!
-1 point for redundancy. Piffanies are always sudden.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.09.30 22:54:00 -
[66]
Originally by: Raid'En
Originally by: Akita T They can always just push all the w-space moons full of minerals
strange thing to see someone so well know here saying something that would get w-space totally overpowered :)
Not necessarily. If they make the w-space moon mineral distribution complementary to that in k-space (in such a way that overall, most of the higher tier materials have moons proportional to the normal usage ratios - so, all w-space would contain heavy-duty quantities of higher-end moon minerals, but mostly Technetium), then instead of having one or two materials sucking most of the value out of the whole T2 pot, you have many more trying to do the same thing, but from a much larger supply base. If done right, and I emphasize the if strongly, you'd have between 5 and 8 moon minerals considered as "quite valuable" (compared to the rest), but the highest price you'd see for any of them would be in the 10k ISK per unit range, if even that much, and there would be no clear "this one is worth the most always", the most valuable one would keep shifting.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Sig Sour
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Posted - 2010.09.30 23:33:00 -
[67]
Originally by: Akita T Not necessarily.
Something I have noticed with wormholes and T3 is that quite often because of the nature of it, it seems the people living in wormholes will bring finished products to the market at lower prices than the materials themselves. This is not something we see now with T2, so do you think we would see any similar effects from wormholes if moon goo were introduced to w-space moons?
I was pointed to this thread when I made the discovery from a different point of view, if you are interested.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.09.30 23:54:00 -
[68]
Edited by: Akita T on 30/09/2010 23:59:07
Quote: I was pointed to this thread when I made the discovery from a different point of view, if you are interested.
That's not exactly news, we've been saying something like this (well, not exactly, but the same general idea) since November 2009
Originally by: Sig Sour Something I have noticed with wormholes and T3 is that quite often because of the nature of it, it seems the people living in wormholes will bring finished products to the market at lower prices than the materials themselves. This is not something we see now with T2, so do you think we would see any similar effects from wormholes if moon goo were introduced to w-space moons?
Well, considering hauling is not exactly cheap opportunity-cost-wise as far as w-space logistics goes, it makes some twisted sense for SOME people that fail to take into account the difficulty of moving materials out of there to sell stuff for slightly below material cost. On the other hand, w-space also has abundant PI resources, and some might consider those as an added bonus and forget to factor them into the equation too, resulting in a perceived lower cost. Not the smartest thing to do, and I doubt it really happens all that often as you seem to imply, but since I don't have any direct experience I'll consider it as a possibility for now.
Back to the question, yeah, it is borderline conceivable that people operating in w-space MIGHT possibly react and sell intermediate or even advanced materials at prices approaching or even slightly below "classic" lowsec reaction profitability thresholds, but again, unlikely to be such a wide-spread occurrence as to become a problem... some trader will almost certainly "take care of it".
This is not fundamentally different from the "I can't invent <item X> for profit" syndrome whenever some market gets temporarily flooded by "datacores I get myself are free, therefore worthless, and so is lab slot time... so I can sell cheaper than other" inventors.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Sig Sour
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Posted - 2010.10.01 02:04:00 -
[69]
Edited by: Sig Sour on 01/10/2010 02:08:03
Originally by: Akita T That's not exactly news, we've been saying something like this (well, not exactly, but the same general idea) since November 2009
Well how come nobody is doing anything about it!
My initial thought was "Technium is really expensive and the NC seems to have control of it all. I wonder who I would have to set blue and what it would take to choke off the supply of a R64 to make Tech worthless..."
So turns out Tech is the easiest material to choke off, and not just by a little bit. From what I understand the NC may have been attempting to choke it off before the moon goo changes, so when the change came, they knew they had it in the bag.
Originally by: Akita T Well, considering hauling is not exactly cheap opportunity-cost-wise as far as w-space logistics goes, it makes some twisted sense for SOME people that fail to take into account the difficulty of moving materials out of there to sell stuff for slightly below material cost. On the other hand, w-space also has abundant PI resources, and some might consider those as an added bonus and forget to factor them into the equation too, resulting in a perceived lower cost. Not the smartest thing to do, and I doubt it really happens all that often as you seem to imply, but since I don't have any direct experience I'll consider it as a possibility for now.
I am going off limited experience and a lot of intuition here, I am not that fond of the limits on w-space. Wormholes are almost like micro communities, and when a wormhole opens up to empire, they unload what they can. It is much easier to take a bunch of hulls and subsystems to a hub like Rens or Dodixie (depending on where the wormhole opens up) than it is to haul that stuff to Jita. You gotta remember that they are on a limited window.
For the most par I think that any given system will be optimized for its maximum potential. So if it is capable of producing an advanced material or two, it will. It appears to be that there are enough dudes living in w-space that are not using market alts to where you might see market spikes when they bring their loads in.
Anyway, I think w-space moon mining is the best and most simple solution to the Tech balance problem. However I am more in favor of segregating the other materials in the fashion tech is segregated - let there be WAR!
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zz01shagsme
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Posted - 2010.10.01 06:55:00 -
[70]
Edited by: zz01shagsme on 01/10/2010 06:56:16 Do you expect fullerides to increase? For a continuous operation fullerides need to increase by at least 1500k before it becomes worth the initial investment and rebuy of tech which is, off current prices, 1.4bil..for 9m a day profit?
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.10.01 10:35:00 -
[71]
Originally by: Akita T
Back to the question, yeah, it is borderline conceivable that people operating in w-space MIGHT possibly react and sell intermediate or even advanced materials at prices approaching or even slightly below "classic" lowsec reaction profitability thresholds, but again, unlikely to be such a wide-spread occurrence as to become a problem... some trader will almost certainly "take care of it".
I used to believe that, however, if there are sufficient people willing to devalue their time then we see a classic case of Gresham law, bad money driving out good.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.01 11:30:00 -
[72]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 01/10/2010 11:32:53 Edited by: AnakieNine on 01/10/2010 11:31:33
Originally by: zz01shagsme Edited by: zz01shagsme on 01/10/2010 06:56:16 Do you expect fullerides to increase? For a continuous operation fullerides need to increase by at least 1500k before it becomes worth the initial investment and rebuy of tech which is, off current prices, 1.4bil..for 9m a day profit?
Unlikely for a week.
We are currently still in a cycle where many of the builders are selling product they made with pre 50k technetium. They will be thinking that the profit made is great and more than happy to sell.
Until enough of the last cycle sells it should hold at around what it is now. Maybe a very slight increase as stocks get sold. Someone has 5-6 batches of 1.5m units of nanotransistors for sale. A largish amount. They are updating all of them at the same time. Not a wise thing to do by anyone really wanting to sell product.. Hence the market will be largely dependence on those until the old stock is gone.
Watch stocks slowly reduce over 1-2 weeks. It might be quicker but unlikely.
A very slight drop in price while the above builders 0.01 each other is not unexpected initially either. As long as the total volume in sell orders continues to decrease. This will in fact open up more opportunity as the price increase afterwards will be sharper and more pronounced.
One of the best signs is the steady price of technetium. There has been great resistance by sellers who don't seem to want to drop even 1k in the technetium price. Even during the 0.01er games that lasted 3 days. Stocks in the active sell area are slowly decreasing. A surprise when the current daily sell volume is slightly lower than normal. A result of the under performing fullerides/nanos price causing a short term reduction in demand.
In itself it is surprising that the current demand for tech is so high with a low fullerides/nanos price. It basically looks like enough people are starting to factor in their own "steady" tech price increase into their future costing and expected final end product sale price. That really is a great sign and prediction of strong prices 2-4 weeks into the future by players themselves.
Also fullerides will go up before nanotransistors.
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.01 11:39:00 -
[73]
Originally by: Akita T
Back to the question, yeah, it is borderline conceivable that people operating in w-space MIGHT possibly react and sell intermediate or even advanced materials at prices approaching or even slightly below "classic" lowsec reaction profitability thresholds, but again, unlikely to be such a wide-spread occurrence as to become a problem... some trader will almost certainly "take care of it".
i know from experience than using a class 1 or 2 to do reaction (and sometimes only for that, as i know some corp who moved their low sec pos to w-space, as it's less risk of being attacked) is not something rare. however, as hauling is dangerous, i don't think much people do reaction with high cost like technium will need. ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
Malcanis
Caldari Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
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Posted - 2010.10.01 13:06:00 -
[74]
Originally by: Raid'En
Originally by: Akita T They can always just push all the w-space moons full of minerals
strange thing to see someone so well know here saying something that would get w-space totally overpowered :)
Originally by: Malcanis
They could always let the K-space moons "deplete" down to a fraction of their current production, then add lots more R32/R64 moons in new "U-space" on the other side of W-space, with U-space only being accessible via C5/C6 systems.
Then high end moon minerals would be valuable because it was difficult and dangerous to move them, not just because they were scarce.
</wonderfuldream>
that's an idea :) but you know a big part of c5-6 are empty, so not sure it would be that hard to haul this ;)
They wouldn't be for long if you could access brand new space through them... and also, IIRC, C5-6 systems dont have K-space wormholes, so you'd have a minimum of 2 W-space systems to traverse U -> C5-6 -> C1-4 -> K
Malcanis' Law: Whenever a mechanics change is proposed on behalf of "new players", that change is always to the overwhelming advantage of richer, older players. |
zz01shagsme
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Posted - 2010.10.01 16:53:00 -
[75]
Originally by: AnakieNine Edited by: AnakieNine on 01/10/2010 11:32:53 Edited by: AnakieNine on 01/10/2010 11:31:33
Originally by: zz01shagsme Edited by: zz01shagsme on 01/10/2010 06:56:16 Do you expect fullerides to increase? For a continuous operation fullerides need to increase by at least 1500k before it becomes worth the initial investment and rebuy of tech which is, off current prices, 1.4bil..for 9m a day profit?
Unlikely for a week.
We are currently still in a cycle where many of the builders are selling product they made with pre 50k technetium. They will be thinking that the profit made is great and more than happy to sell.
Until enough of the last cycle sells it should hold at around what it is now. Maybe a very slight increase as stocks get sold. Someone has 5-6 batches of 1.5m units of nanotransistors for sale. A largish amount. They are updating all of them at the same time. Not a wise thing to do by anyone really wanting to sell product.. Hence the market will be largely dependence on those until the old stock is gone.
Watch stocks slowly reduce over 1-2 weeks. It might be quicker but unlikely.
A very slight drop in price while the above builders 0.01 each other is not unexpected initially either. As long as the total volume in sell orders continues to decrease. This will in fact open up more opportunity as the price increase afterwards will be sharper and more pronounced.
One of the best signs is the steady price of technetium. There has been great resistance by sellers who don't seem to want to drop even 1k in the technetium price. Even during the 0.01er games that lasted 3 days. Stocks in the active sell area are slowly decreasing. A surprise when the current daily sell volume is slightly lower than normal. A result of the under performing fullerides/nanos price causing a short term reduction in demand.
In itself it is surprising that the current demand for tech is so high with a low fullerides/nanos price. It basically looks like enough people are starting to factor in their own "steady" tech price increase into their future costing and expected final end product sale price. That really is a great sign and prediction of strong prices 2-4 weeks into the future by players themselves.
Also fullerides will go up before nanotransistors.
rgr - was expecting it to come through already tbh - i did the right thing and bought before the 70-ish k spike but for me to carry on building it needs to come up by at least 2k in jita tbh after factoring in new price of tech and increasing pos fuel etc...
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.01 17:07:00 -
[76]
Edited by: Raid''En on 01/10/2010 17:08:44
Originally by: Malcanis
C4-6 systems dont have K-space wormholes, so you'd have a minimum of 2 W-space systems to traverse U -> C4-6 -> C1-3 -> K
fixed. if you want to deny what i said, at least make sure to make no mistakes :)
having to traverse 2 w-space system is peace of cake, way easier than doing the same on 2 0.0 systems. w-sapce is way safer than 0.0, there is very few ambush because of the no-local. so if you go in only 1 trip there's very few risk that someone know you were here. (of course scout is still needed ^^) and to go to your 0.0 moon you'll need more than 2 jumps. on a system like this the danger would be more when leaving the u-space than after. so as i said ; need something a bit harder to be a good idea ;) ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.02 21:46:00 -
[77]
so guys ? seems you were wrong, there is no change on the trend of the market, still dropping. ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.10.02 22:07:00 -
[78]
Originally by: Raid'En so guys ? seems you were wrong, there is no change on the trend of the market, still dropping.
I for one hedged my bets and sold off 500k units, killing most of the 70k region buy orders, those of them that are margin traders put that straight back up for sale... sorry. As VV said, an actual gain over a potential gain and all that.
my target is met, so I'll take that for this month's sales and see what next month brings when it gets here vOv
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.10.03 01:00:00 -
[79]
Gotta love it when a small order brings everything down 4K If I was liquid I'b buy some more
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.10.03 01:31:00 -
[80]
Edited by: Akita T on 03/10/2010 01:33:44
Originally by: Raid'En so guys ? seems you were wrong, there is no change on the trend of the market, still dropping.
There are no short-term guarantees in a volatile market. Momentary trends could continue, stall or reverse at any time due to countless possible factors. Technetium could drop slowly down to 60k only to later spike fast towards 80k, or it could stabilize to 65k or even 60k and slowly climb back to 70k later, or it could short-term spike back to 75k only to slowly drop to 60k for a while, or, or, or.
The only certainly is that eventually (be it one month, 3 months or even 9 months), if CCP doesn't radically alter something about T2 components or moon mineral production, Technetium would go up... meanwhile, it will be heavily oscillating on a main "going upwards" base trend. The big uncertainty is when or whether CCP will do anything about it.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.03 02:05:00 -
[81]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 03/10/2010 02:13:36 Edited by: AnakieNine on 03/10/2010 02:11:11
Originally by: Raid'En so guys ? seems you were wrong, there is no change on the trend of the market, still dropping.
Actually no. You need to look at the whole picture. Yeah technetium dropped thanks to almost a whole days worth of Jita volume sold to buy orders. Do that to any stock in one shot and it will will always drop a few percent. I would normally say yes however have you checked Nanotransistors/fullerides today. There strong sales result and lack of new product replacing them is a stronger sign.
From yesterday Nanos are Up 100 isk and there is only 1/2 the stock we had yesterday on sale as well. I guess its no longer going to take 1-2 weeks to get sold as I said in my last post. Those 6 blocking orders of 1.5 million units which where the biggest problem are now down to only 2 blocks.
Fullerides are up 150 isk (a nice rise, the best and it was mentioned to watch fullerides in the last post). Stocks in sell orders of fullerides are also approximately 1/2 of yesterdays units as well. A great sign as well.
Tech is also once again profitable to build from at 80k a unit. So lets see how long it price will stay at a 70k sell price. Watch out if the remain nanos and fulleride stocks disappear.
So all in all no negative signs for tech. Just a low tech price itself and a likely time for reactors/builders to buy back in. Previously I expected 1-2 weeks for nanos/fullerides stocks to disappear. Signs look much better now and stocks at half. A check of invention prices of a sample of ships that use technetium in them shows that they are becoming profitable again using the current microprocessor prices. It takes a while to pull the price of end product up when tech effects so many of them. Your effectively dragging the whole market up by having tech rise. The enormity of it can slow things down and a part reason reason i called a sudden hold before it got to its last peak. If we get another large jump this wont be as much of a problem as more ship builders etc are aware and will react a little quicker this time. All this going against a long term of deflation which causes people to drag their feet. Its part of the reason I have been discussing tech in so much detail. It's the most interesting thing in the eve market atm both in math, general conclusions and in the effects it has on peoples opinion which change market places. The whole model is where the fun is. Oh yes i have stocks in it too. Quite a lot at 1.5k a unit.
So with Tech being the best buy in the whole chain atm, an interesting change from it being the worst for the last couple of weeks, Lets see how the price is at the end of the week. It is definitely up. Edit just read Akita T Post. Exactly however I have been deliberately going out on a limb with tech and trying to give an exact answer and direction. Its a nice change from people that dont. Also no market analyst should ever give precise answers like I am trying to give. It takes a lot to predict a markets every move.
Hopefully people learn a little. It takes a complete model and a lot goes into estimating every step for it to even be half successful. I'm deliberately keeping it simple by keeping as much math out of the posts as I can. To many players don't like it :)
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.10.03 10:56:00 -
[82]
If you guys don't mind the off-topicness too much, would anyone care to comment on what took the bottom out of the Neod market? I don't see any particular reason for the sudden drop
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.03 14:18:00 -
[83]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 03/10/2010 14:26:03 Edited by: AnakieNine on 03/10/2010 14:21:49 When Platinum dives so does neodymium. If it isn't so obvious by the graphs, unrefined neo-mercurite always seems to be about 1/3 to 1/2 above the normal neo-mercurite reaction cost and final sale price of neo-mercurite. It acts as a price cap even though I doubt anyone is using it.
Right now it cost 14687isk a unit to make a unit of neo-mercurite from the unrefined Neo Mercurite reaction. Therefore it couldn't support the higher price of 15k a unit without creating extra supply. The unrefined reaction would kick in and players with neodymium don't want that and get worried. They expect a price drop as they should and hence it happens.
When platinum goes back up so should neodymium. In the past when I manipulated platinum I always saw nice gains in neodymium.
The price drop was a bit quick so I tend not to think it was excess long term supply. But I could be wrong. :)
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Xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.10.03 18:54:00 -
[84]
@ AnakieNine
Welcome on board, sir. I really enjoy reading your posts these days.
Good to see some thoughtful minds around, and hope you stay longer.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.04 06:59:00 -
[85]
heh. I was the one that purchased most of the neodymium for a month before the patch. I initially speculated that it would be a coin toss between tech and neod being the largest bottleneck.
All signs pointed to platinum being in short supply. Post patch analyst showed a nice boost to platinum usage. At the time all other MD-ers believed the same. The final conclusion was that platinum would support a price of 5k before alliances felt it worth while to mine moons more than 1 jump radius out from high sec.
Two things changed that might have made a big difference. 1) Fuel required for jump drives dropped in half. (Cheaper to move things back to empire.) 2) Relative peace. (More time to move things back to empire) 3) Time.. (As always more time to build up stocks. Anything that isn't a bottleneck tends to drop in price over time as the materials builds up.) Players increasing their build stock is a from of demand and shows up more on a new item or when a item requirement changes.
I to have a nice chuck of neodymium left. Just over 4 million units in case war finally comes and the platinum price rises as supply gets restricted.
That last drop in neod price was way to quick as well. I guess the sell order containing 900k units has had a lot to do with it. When I have looked it appears to only get updated once a day.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.04 07:29:00 -
[86]
Oh crap. :) I hate when things change and you don't revisit your old assumption. Its a guaranteed way to lose profits. This is why you use graphs to point you in a direction of why.
Can anyone see the new flaw?
I wish to advise a few friends that could be effected on different items just in case its valid. I'll post it here soon.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.10.04 07:49:00 -
[87]
Originally by: AnakieNine Can anyone see the new flaw?
Wild guess : Technetium price spike finally starting to push down more noticeably on prices of all other moon minerals ? _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.10.04 14:15:00 -
[88]
Originally by: AnakieNine Can anyone see the new flaw?
More specifically, I would think the rising price of Fullerides hurts Neo.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.04 23:36:00 -
[89]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 04/10/2010 23:45:43 Opps. I should have been precise. Not tech. I meant from the post above about neodymium and more specifically platinum which is at least price capping neodymium.
Something in that post doesn't hold as true anymore and it may have broken my model. One assumption is very questionable to me now. I know it has changed the dynamics of the system. Just not confident in how much. We can discuss that latter.
Originally by: Akita T Wild guess : Technetium price spike finally starting to push down more noticeably on prices of all other moon minerals ?
That is a good thing imo as do you. :) We all expected that. I felt it would have got to 8k much quicker (3 months) and have noted the extra time for future simular changes. Not that you can profit directly from it. If I remember right you posted that it had to drop I think to 10 or was it 15k? in a short time after the patch. Your short term prediction was closer to mine I know that. I expected a lower and quicker result.
As time passes the stocks from the old valuable moons had to keep increasing until the price dropped to a point where people become inefficient with the resource and the decrease in price of end items raised the usage (demand). The combination of a lower/higher production efficency (Supply) with more/less use of end items (demand) always has to change until both match. (market equilibrium).
Even at 8-10k I don't think there would be to many extra moons now not being utilized that where being used before. So has demand for end items gone up enough to match? If not the price continues down.
Originally by: Claire Voyant Edited by: Claire Voyant on 04/10/2010 14:49:31
Originally by: AnakieNine Can anyone see the new flaw?
More specifically, I would think the rising price of Fullerides hurts Neo.
Edit: Actually, while rising tech hurts all moon mats, it hurts Platinum, Neo, and Mercury the most.
This comment is surprising interesting. :) Maybe we have arrived at the same conclusion by seeing different things. Your right, when things go up those items that have the most elasticity will give a little in order to help keep the price basket the same. Most of the moon goo don't have much room to play with. Neod would. Even at a lower price than it was all the moons that where being used still will be. Perhaps another reason for the shorter term drop? Just not the one I was thinking about. This is also what akita T said tech is doing to the other moon minerals. (short term effect the most.) If it those items below market equilibrium then those items will move back up in the coming days/weeks/months. This is a good time to watch them and make conclusions. The new question mark I have specifically/directly effects (if right) moon minerals in the 2-5?k price range. Others wont have much effect. That probably is only platinum and mercury. :) Strangely mercury doesn't show much signs at a glance while platinum probably has some.
Anyone want to do a TA report on mercury. VV? It's a interesting graph.
Excuse if any of this post seems a bit down putting. I'm just having some fun to see if people are learning anything and thinking outside the box. I'm also tring to keep as many people following the conversation and dont want to spell it out to much. I probably have :P
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.05 03:46:00 -
[90]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 05/10/2010 03:52:05 No other guesses? Please someone. Don't be scared.
Also a really nice 700k technetium block has gone up on sell orders 4 hours ago. At that size it has to be an old speculator or NC itself? A blocking order? Prehaps. Either way it looks likely to make tech cheaper sometime in the future.
Normally at this stage I would change market direction of which i have been out of for a while and sell a bunch to the microprocessor market, then the nano market, and follow up with the fulleride market. lastly sell some but make sure I crash the technetium price using as little stock as i had to. It wouldn't be hard since I already created a drop in nanos/fullerides/microprocessor market. So basically use that 700k unit and other stock against them. Make it look like a crash. End result is one of two things. you get a bunch of stock of the market (Not mine) from people that are either every smart or very dumb. Which one they are I am not sure yet. Either way they are very dangerous. Do it right and I would get to buy it all up with the extra isk from taking the cream off the microprocess, nanos/fulleride markets.
However that is going more into manipulation and I don't want to go much into that topic as everyone has their own methods and techniques. I would also like to keep mine.
Unfortanately doing this is against what I have been posting for the tech price so I will restrain myself from my normal market shark behaviour and let the market sort it out by itself. What happens depends on the person behind the order and their goals.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.10.05 09:41:00 -
[91]
Someone's been taking your advice! All tech buy orders down to 55k were wiped out and the 700k sell order is moving downwards (well, 699999 - it belongs to Michael Eisner, a name that I've seen involved in some manipulations in the past).
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.10.05 10:03:00 -
[92]
Edited by: SetrakDark on 05/10/2010 10:03:53 It's a great time to crash the price and scoop a bunch more for the final couple surges. That last spike put a nice fat temporary glut of stockpiles on the market. I'd definitely be doing exactly that if I wasn't full to the **** on the stuff already.
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.05 11:33:00 -
[93]
i saw a 400k stock appearing, it was already here before ? hope no new guys is trying to sell these, however for what i saw it's the last big thing (wtih a 200k) before 80k/unit hope this will works soon, this market is way too big, it's alliance who sold these, or there's guy with that much money ? you'll need hundred or maybe even thoudand of billion to play with these amount o_O ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.10.05 16:34:00 -
[94]
Well, I'm happy I sold at 70k, lets me pick some more up now
All this is still of course assuming that the down trend is going to have an end... as we've seen this past year Tech is perfectly capable of sitting at a low price with no movement for an extended period
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.06 01:12:00 -
[95]
Another reason for this discussion is that I'm interested on how much the market reacts to a public discussion. Both good and bad. A good analyst will always use it as another positive or negative weight in any model.
It is Interesting that only technetium has gone down atm. That 700k unit or the discussions here have brought out another 1+ million units of techn. We now have 4.3 million units below 80k. A nice figure to know. Market elasticity.
The manipulation attempt if it is one has not really been done very well imo but it can be effective. They currently are just using a single brute force attack on only one item in a chain of items.
The order itself isn't getting updated often. So more chance he doesn't really want to sell it. Watch for the order dropping only after a run of orders are seen going down a few (k) below his. This will tell you a lot. Esp.if left again.
Now back to the last post when I asked about blocking orders? The ones that don't move? They can have another purpose. Did anyone guess what it was?
Well when you want to manipulate items that are on the rise and the item has already jumped before. i.e. Noc, techn, robotics etc you almost always get a large run of sell orders as the price slowly drops from its previous breakout high to a more reasonable level. This is a major problem but its mainly a problem down the track when you decide you want to raise it again. (you know it can sustain another jump). That string of higher orders leftover in the 10-30% price range will end up stalling any future price increase opportunities and also contain jumps to smaller steps each time. It has the effect of increasing the time period before it get to where you know/want it to go. For a price breakout to occur quicker the smart trader spends time setting up the market so the conditions are right. The only other way is to use brute force to buy it all and that can be costly to profits when it is above current market price. So like everything in life the best solution is generally combine both methods (i.e All methods). You want to move as many of those over priced orders as you can beforehand so you don't have to wait 90days or buy them out. Do it right and you only need to buy a bit of product at market price and relist 10-30% higher. If price then goes back to its old price after a few days it is not a complete loss. you just sell it for the old price and make only a little.
Ok back to techn and how I would have done it if techn was not so public. Also important that the general public's knowledge isn't that it was going up long term. That causes problems and makes the job harder. So before posting and making it even more public I would do this...
First the large strings of sell orders in the range 80k-100k have to go. So a large order or orders placed at 80k would do well. Not unlike the current ones that are sitting there.... but larger like the 700k one. Also picking a nice BRN (big round number) helps. Make people think you are someone that has just left them there at 10% etc profit and forgotten about it. The owners of many of the bids in the 80-100k range will watch it and when they decide that you aren't moving it, they often move their order below yours oinstead of waiting for yours to sell, or the 90days for it to disappear. After an initial mass migration of higher orders below yours it generally takes 10-30 days for the others to give up after deciding the opportunity to sell high is gone. They move the order. Latter when you perceive the cost to force the breakout is optimal and cheap you buy up all the sell orders stock below yours and move your large order. In effect creating the price break out. The less public the item is the better it works :)
I do a couple of other things as well but I will leave those to myself. Its all about planing and being able to change directions when opportunities come up. You don't know how tempting it is to crash the products that techn makes atm.
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.10.06 01:23:00 -
[96]
Do it! you know you want to
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.10.07 12:56:00 -
[97]
I'm finding the recent drop quite ironic, the NC are very intent on tightening their grip on the Technetium supply. According to my information they've taken at least three tech moons in the last week, one each from IT, Ev0ke & Cry Havoc.
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Eanna Heart
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Posted - 2010.10.07 13:05:00 -
[98]
How low will prices go?
You'd expext some number of whales to swoop in and buy out the weekend-traders at these prices.
Why isn't the NC using their massive permenant coalition of alliances with vast/tech moon holdings to control the price ala OPEC? Are their still massive non-NC stockpiles in play?
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.10.07 13:09:00 -
[99]
Right now I have a feeling we're all playing chicken with who will rebuy first, once that starts it'll shoot back up fairly quickly I expect.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.10.07 13:21:00 -
[100]
Originally by: volhar Right now I have a feeling we're all playing chicken with who will rebuy first, once that starts it'll shoot back up fairly quickly I expect.
If that's the case, the 470k that's left of the 700k order is your signal. Though there are also large orders at 73.5 and ~82.
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.10.07 13:42:00 -
[101]
I'm thinking the bulk of that huge order might magically dissapear when it starts to bounce back...
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.07 13:55:00 -
[102]
so you think price will revert very quick ? i saw some numbers changing a lot at some hours, as i saw a time when orders where at 56, but 1-2h later when i checked back it was 62 but seems hard to tell when price will really change ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
volhar
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Posted - 2010.10.07 14:13:00 -
[103]
Quickly yes, but not sure how high, might stall in the mid 60s or at 70 for a while. All I know is I sold at 61K and rebought at 56 and I'm very happy with that
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Kryhane
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Posted - 2010.10.07 16:41:00 -
[104]
Originally by: Raid'En Edited by: Raid''En on 01/10/2010 17:19:33
Originally by: Malcanis
C4-6 systems dont have STATIC K-space wormholes
fixed.
Late to the party as always but...fixed for reals. I'm jumping out of my C5 directly in to low-sec as we speak.
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.07 16:56:00 -
[105]
Originally by: Kryhane STATIC
it was obvious on the context that it was about static wh that we were talking. as any system may link to any system with a casual wh. ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.08 16:02:00 -
[106]
damn i wanted to wait a bit more to see if price were still lowering, and it has raise in a sec... but not enough to unload what i had bough at hight price ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
mental maverick
Percussive Diplomacy
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Posted - 2010.10.08 16:39:00 -
[107]
Dont know about you guys, and i just recently got into the moon mins trading stuff so not an expert myself, basicly just experimenting a bit...
but judging from the volumes traded the last few days and assuming volumes traded during the stable 40k period is roughly where demand is at, id say there is a lot of Tech just trading hands between speculators at this point.
which would mean a lot of it isnt used but merely traded and hence my guess is it will go down again but how much im not sure. Personally im not buying anything atm but then again i allready made my isk from the initial spike and am quite satisfied with the returns i got so i might just be lazy and happy with what i got out of it...
Anybody got an opinion on volumes traded?
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Douglass Bryant
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Posted - 2010.10.08 17:48:00 -
[108]
Not really noticing the same thing, at least in The Forge region.
Going back to March, when the price leveled off for a few months, volume appears to hover around an average of 1.2M, about the same (actually a bit more) as it has been for much of the upswing. There have been some anomalous volume days, like yesterday, which I imagine is mostly from speculators buying up stock in anticipation of a higher top.
That being said, total stock on the market is down 500k units from yesterday at current, so the belt is tightening somewhat. The 70k price mark could be a resistance point, though.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.10.08 19:29:00 -
[109]
Originally by: Douglass Bryant Not really noticing the same thing, at least in The Forge region.
Going back to March, when the price leveled off for a few months, volume appears to hover around an average of 1.2M, about the same (actually a bit more) as it has been for much of the upswing. There have been some anomalous volume days, like yesterday, which I imagine is mostly from speculators buying up stock in anticipation of a higher top.
That being said, total stock on the market is down 500k units from yesterday at current, so the belt is tightening somewhat. The 70k price mark could be a resistance point, though.
Doesn't the price graph look like it's slowly forming that first "hill" in the graph I posted 20 days ago in my RL analysis thread?
Link - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Douglass Bryant
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Posted - 2010.10.08 21:45:00 -
[110]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Doesn't the price graph look like it's slowly forming that first "hill" in the graph I posted 20 days ago in my RL analysis thread?
Link
VV, I had checked out that graph previously, but have forgotten about it until you brought it back up. Very cool as I was just considering a roughly equivalent presentation in the new few days/weeks. However, my thinking is that we've already got the first shoulder here, and we're moving towards the head throughout the next 7-10 days.
My guess? As stocks continue to get bought, price will rise until 70k, where we'll see a little hiccup as some profits are taken and stocks sold back to the market. After it passes 70, though I think we're well on the way to a breakout to a top around 80-82, after which it will drop back down to 60-ish while everybody takes profits, back up to 70 for the final shoulder while the stock glut from the profit taking clears, then I think we'll settle into a new stable price between 50 and 60.'
I could be wrong though, I dunno. That seems like the most logical course of action to me, though.
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.10.08 21:58:00 -
[111]
Are people really finding tech's movement complicated to explain or is this all just cheap manipulation attempts?
You have a fixed rate of new supply and some unknown volumes of stockpiles, while on the demand side you have an extremely elastic demand (ie, demand goes down slowly with price increases). Therefore, as the price slowly rises to its equilibrium, you have occasional sell-off periods, where stockpiles are brought to market. These periods have heavy fluctuations as speculators maneuver to make a quick buck on fast changing prices. This lasts until the stockpile glut clears, and the price then continues its march upward until the next round of stockpilers cash in.
Not complicated.
Also, misapplied technical analysis is comically useless.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.10.08 21:59:00 -
[112]
Quote:
However, my thinking is that we've already got the first shoulder here, and we're moving towards the head throughout the next 7-10 days
Actually there's no "however" since it's what I was trying to show .
I am not sure 7-10 days will be enough for the head to show (IF it will show, else it'll become a double top or a top + range).
See, graphs are the reflection of the players thoughts, beliefs, hopes, greed and fear.
I.e. if the current 60B or so Technetium IPO succeeds, it'll move the market enough to attract others to buy and so the head has a great opportunity to create.
If it won't and something happens so that players get scared to remain with the short stick in the hands, they'll switch to dump and then it'll become a double top.
If there will be mixed reactions, price could start oscillating in horizontal till some market maker decides to buy a lot or dump a lot.
- Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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mental maverick
Percussive Diplomacy
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Posted - 2010.10.09 03:19:00 -
[113]
Originally by: SetrakDark Are people really finding tech's movement complicated to explain or is You have a fixed rate of new supply and some unknown volumes of stockpiles, while on the demand side you have an extremely elastic demand (ie, demand goes down slowly with price increases). Therefore, as the price slowly rises to its equilibrium, you have occasional sell-off periods, where stockpiles are brought to market. These periods have heavy fluctuations as speculators maneuver to make a quick buck on fast changing prices. This lasts until the stockpile glut clears, and the price then continues its march upward until the next round of stockpilers cash in.
OMG, you just uncovered the big sekret!!! I bet no-one knew this before!!!
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.10.09 12:31:00 -
[114]
Originally by: SetrakDark . . . on the demand side you have an extremely elastic demand (ie, demand goes down slowly with price increases).
That is the definition of INelastic demand. Elastic demand responds quicker to price changes.
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Guilliman R
Gallente Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.10.09 12:57:00 -
[115]
So.. When is it going to spike again? ------
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.10.09 13:08:00 -
[116]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: SetrakDark . . . on the demand side you have an extremely elastic demand (ie, demand goes down slowly with price increases).
That is the definition of INelastic demand. Elastic demand responds quicker to price changes.
Right, thank you. Been a while since econ 101.
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.10.09 14:54:00 -
[117]
I think the point of VVs graph is to show that while the market is trending up (see it finishing up higher late next year?), the movement we see now is driven by market psychology. We know it's going to go up, so its going up. However, we also know there are hundreds of billions of isk worth of Tech stockpiled in anticipation of the rise. By the time us traders have had our way with Technetium that psychology will have driven the market in a predictable pattern.
Personally I think Technetium will see more muted downturns showing more of the underlying increase in value. Demand for Tech can drop for a few weeks when producers think it's too high, but they still are going to have to buy if they want to be producers. Demand for T2 is extremely inelastic in the long run. If your hull is 80m or 120m you're still going to keep flying and losing the ships you have trained to fly. Very few high SP pilots would let 30 or 40m isk (when prices are stable and they don't think they can wait it out) put them back in crap t1 fits. So long as the volume is there eating away at stockpiles every day the ability of the market to crash to or below historic price points is somewhat limited.
Regarding the increase in volume the last few days- while traders are definitely swaping position also note that producers have been delaying buying for a long time now, and there is pent-up demand hiding in the shadows.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.10 02:00:00 -
[118]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 10/10/2010 02:04:12
Originally by: AnakieNine Edited by: AnakieNine on 01/10/2010 11:32:53 Watch stocks slowly reduce over 1-2 weeks. It might be quicker but unlikely.
My hold period is almost over with only 4 days left until those 2 weeks are up. Lets check stocks. As quoted on the 2010.10.06 01:12:00
Originally by: AnakieNine It is Interesting that only technetium has gone down atm. That 700k unit or the discussions here have brought out another 1+ million units of techn. We now have 4.3 million units below 80k. A nice figure to know. Market elasticity.
We now have only 1.39 million units under 80k. almost 3 million units disappeared at a rate of ~700k a day. so within the next 4 days we should easily see another shortage coming up.
This time there probably wont be as much negative reactions from sellers thinking its price may be to high and dumping for profits. Both the seller and speculators are more likely to wait for at least another jump. The slack stock that appeared has been repurchased by people that have to value it above the old price point. That supply wont be coming back on the market in the very short term. So if it was speculator supply we are in good shape. Not as much left for the current sell price.
Guess we need to strap ourselves in and lets see what happens this week. I'm still very interested in in that 311k sell order at 81999isk. Its the same one I mentioned 20 days ago as being the blocker which would halt the price increase. Keep an eye on this block to see what is going to happen. It has a number of interesting features related to it that still may cause a short term price hold at 80k. It is at just enough volume and at a interesting price point that is only slightly above brn of 80k. with the normal expected price gap between buy and sell orders it will encouraging a buy price that sits just below 80k. Psychology speaking it will effect some people. Probably not enough to do much for long. Watch its effect on the market as a good price indicator. Ofc by that stage it could be to late. Which in itself could cause another run.
Originally by: AnakieNine It is Interesting that only technetium has gone down atm.
A nice indicator. Technetium 20% drop never effected nanos/fullrides and microprocessors more than a couple of %. (exclude nanoelectrical microprocessors). So only 1 in 6 items was effected by it. A great sign that it was going up again quickly.
Stocks of nanos/fullerides are still low so expect another price pull from these shortly.
If i had to make a bet. There will be a price rise before Wednesday in technetium. Back to 80k.
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Lord Arbalest
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.10.10 13:16:00 -
[119]
Edited by: Lord Arbalest on 10/10/2010 13:17:46 Edit
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Guilliman R
Gallente Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.10.10 15:14:00 -
[120]
Price back at 70k :o
Rise to 80k so some of us who were st00pid don't loose half a bil because we bought at the peak..
------
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Stacy Silver
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Posted - 2010.10.10 15:14:00 -
[121]
Anakie - I could be and probably am totally wrong but I am guessing you are the market maker, or at least one of them
Either you like to display your market prowess for fun, ego, helpful soul or whatever, OR you are a key manipulator in all of this.
No offence intended and I hope none taken - just I do wonder - your views WILL affect the market since most people don't speak the lingo or cant be arsed to do the homework themselves - so, I am just wondering if whether in a few weeks/months down the line we get a victory post - guess unlikely if you are in fact leading the psychology of the market here and want to continue doing it heh.
Anyways, the market has become very interesting of late - lots to be won or lost - such market shifts to my limited knowledge don't happen very often so is fun to watch. Anyways keeps up the good work, whatever your end goal is.
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.10 15:17:00 -
[122]
Originally by: Guilliman R
Rise to 80k so some of us who were st00pid don't loose half a bil because we bought at the peak..
we were not stupid, we were trusting AnakieNine who said it will stop at 100k :P (what ? trusting in eve is stupid ? oh...) ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
RAW23
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Posted - 2010.10.10 15:57:00 -
[123]
Originally by: Guilliman R Price back at 70k :o
Rise to 80k so some of us who were st00pid don't loose half a bil because we bought at the peak..
You might have to wait a little. Looks like someone is trying to push it down again.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.10 16:54:00 -
[124]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 10/10/2010 17:01:55
Originally by: Stacy Silver Anakie - I could be and probably am totally wrong but I am guessing you are the market maker, or at least one of them
Not at all. At least not lately in tech. I possibly could but I managed to get in early and have more than enough tech related products. I no longer wish to expand my holdings as having to much of your total assets in a single chain of products is never a good thing if game changes are made. So apart from very small buys here and there I stopped buying tech related products just after the patch a year ago. If I remember right there is a post near the start of this thread in which I linked the nanotransistors thread. That has my reasons in there. I was basically annoyed at people not understanding the tech market and how it was taking so long to move where it should be. I have had enough of tech and it's not much fun for me anymore. A year is long enough to wait on one type item. I would have sold a long time ago except it was obvious its going up. Probably to 140 eventually. Having finished with it I don't mind others making isk from it. So now I'm just letting people know what I do. However no one should ever invest without checking things themselves and agreeing with them.
I've been playing the markets for a long time and have a little over 2 trillion in Nav. About half of that made from speculation. The rest the old fashion way. So I do quite well at reading the markets.
Originally by: Raid'En
we were not stupid, we were trusting AnakieNine who said it will stop at 100k :P (what ? trusting in eve is stupid ? oh...)
heheh. :) That made me smile. If your worried about a 2-3week delay before something rises then speculation isn't for you. Picking how much something will rise is not an exact science forget about picking exactly when. Most people that originally went into tech did so knowing it was a long term investment. They expected a year. The fact that you are disappointed that it didn't jump from 80k to 100k in a week with no thought of it going down or taking longer is unrealistic. It only take one person with a bit of stock to delay the whole process.
I complained and told people it was going up when at 59k. At 80k I said the rise was going to halt before it actually did. It will get to 100k. but first we have to get over these destructive 400k,700k sell orders that a few people are putting up. If you have been following the market for the last few months you would know that large blocks were generally always in 100k allocations. Not the 400k and definitely not the 700k blocks we have seen at the peaks. As long as this its not the NC selling stock it shouldn't be a problem. Those blocks will however stall the rise or cause a temporary crash like the 700k one did.
btw. If for some strange reason the price doesn't raise back to 80k... and you really don't want to lose isk right this second you only need to react the technetium you brought at 80k into nanotransistors. For every 1 billion you spent at that price it will be worth 1.25b in end product even after all costs are added. ie tower fuel etc. want a bit more use the nanotransistors to build something else.
Sell orders under 80k is back to about 2.3 million units. so looks like a million units has been added in the last couple of hours... including the 400k one. As raw32 said it is probably another person wanting to crash it. Its not normal.
The only other thing we haven't considered is that perhaps a few people are looking at reducing their risk before patch day. Just incase there are changes. 400k sell orders are really rare. forget about 700k ones!
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.10 17:39:00 -
[125]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 10/10/2010 17:40:46
Originally by: Stacy Silver
No offence intended and I hope none taken - just I do wonder - your views WILL affect the market since most people don't speak the lingo or cant be arsed to do the homework themselves - so, I am just wondering if whether in a few weeks/months down the line we get a victory post - guess unlikely if you are in fact leading the psychology of the market here and want to continue doing it heh.
No offence taken.
My victory post? Just one finally saying its at 100k+ and thinking that maybe I helped get it there quicker. I dont like isk tied up. That is the problem with the market, you never really know if you had an effect and if you did, by how much?
It is fun to go out on a public limb for a change.
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.10 19:40:00 -
[126]
Edited by: Raid''En on 10/10/2010 19:43:12
Originally by: AnakieNine however if anyone is your worried about a 2-3week delay before something rises then speculation isn't for you.
it was my 2nd try about one some months ago, when nothing went well. judging by the posts i assumed this thread was the truth and that risk were low. however i totally underestimated the possibility of a time delay, i was hoping for a short term move, not this long. and i bought at the worst moment possible. and with that i was stucked, forced to follow what happen to avoid losing money. moreover i totally missed the opportunity to buy at 55k when it get back at this price. i though following the "truths" said here was enough, but i was wrong ; if you can't understand the reasoning of what is said you won't do what's needed to make money at the good moment. always the same on eve, if you don't have the knowledge you can't make money. but when you got it it's too late for most casual people. ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
Stacy Silver
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Posted - 2010.10.10 21:53:00 -
[127]
Hopefully not sounding too prosaic, but the simple truth of eve of 'don't fly what what you cant afford to lose' also applies to market shenanigans - any time you decide to speculate you have to be ready to get absolutely screwed by someone who has trillions of isk who just so happens to want to manipulate whatever you are into into the wrong direction - ok thats the worst case scenario, but the basic bottom line is: 1) dont put all your eggs into one basket aka diversification or risk spreading
and
2) have another income source rather than market investment/return (at least at the beginning so if it does go up in flames you can smile and continue on).
Betting on the market is a bet at the end of the day...
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.10.10 22:44:00 -
[128]
Originally by: AnakieNine
Anyone want to do a TA report on mercury. VV? It's a interesting graph.
I am sorry but the spite posts I keep getting in multiple threads about TA made me decide to stop spending tens of hours for free and for everyone.
By the way if someone
- who would have totally missed the good opportunity at patch day
- would completely ignore the very basics of T2 materials
- would spend about 4-5 minutes visually looking for easy cues
- would have invested 1B in Technetium at my "misplaced TA" entry signal at 36k and sold at the exit signal at 72K (past the peak retracement), now he'd have had a 100% ROI aka 2B. For someone who could have never opened Technetium graph and not even ever heard about Technetium in his life, it's not too shabby.
- Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.10.10 23:06:00 -
[129]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha I am sorry but the spite posts I keep getting in multiple threads about TA made me decide to stop spending tens of hours for free and for everyone.
I know this is out of place on this thread, but I want to comment on this.
Don't let a few hater trolls get you down. I, and I'm sure many others who don't post often here, have gained tremendous respect for your threads and what you do. There are very few educational threads on MD since we moved to the top of the list and your posts have stirred up a few good ones in just a couple of weeks.
I've been enjoying learning about real life TA the last few weeks, which started with your thread.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.10 23:13:00 -
[130]
looks like you will probably have to wait another week at least. We now have 2 lots of 401 k blocks. Why are both at 401k units each? coincidence? Maybe but unlikely.
Raid'En at this stage you could always play the gap. Sell at the current sell price and re-buy at a cheaper buy price. There is always a chance of another drop atm and you might find you buy back in at near 60k this time. Assuming the 800k sellers really want to crash the price. If I had small amounts it would be what I would try in order to increase profits. Its not to hard to manage successfully with little amounts.
I'm starting to have slight suspicion that someone may be having fun doing the opposite of what is being written in MD. I know I often did that myself. The last few market direction changes have all occured just a couple of hours after the previous positive posts. Even when nothing has changed for days and things where improving to the point of another push upwards. I'm not really sure what to make of that atm or how long the market/player/players will dump stock on sell orders every time things look good again. Guess its a nice way to shot yourself in the foot long term. I know I wouldn't do unless I wanted to be out before patch day, or before patch notes.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.10 23:39:00 -
[131]
Couldn't agree more VV. Even though I don't think I have had a hater yet. Possible because I stayed to only 3 items. noc, robotics and techn. Less people to annoy :P and all items still roughly doing what I said. Those items are also big enough that talking about them doesn't effect any single persons grip to much.
Sometimes I'm not sure if the hater post in MD are really hater post or just tools used by other marketeers that don't want more people in their market.
I find this a bit silly when it comes to graphs and trends. ATM there seems so little isk actually used in speculation. I rarely find anyone else doing it and have to do all the work myself. I also find almost no-one changing the prices of things for big ticket categories. The more people that understand basic data like you have been showing the easier it is for a trader (like me) to make more money in the market. Generally items rises are slow in eve compared to other ways of earning income. It can take a year to get to where prices are going. The more people get on TA the quicker the price should get to the new equilibrium in steps and not just slow gradual slopes with few places to get on and off. It generally wont make the price higher but it will allow for quicker a returns and the ability for traders to rotate stocks more often when speculating. End result more isk for those doing it. Lets face it, the market being stagnant is no fun for anyone that hangs out here in MD.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.10.11 07:13:00 -
[132]
Originally by: AnakieNine
I find this a bit silly when it comes to graphs and trends. The more people understand the basics the better the market is for them. ATM there seems very little isk is actually used in speculation. I rarely find anyone else doing it and have to do most of the work myself
It's counter-productive as well. RL MMs are either neutral or they try to get every possible trader in their trades (for advantage of course). Plusvalence on a billion items turnover is surely more appetible than 100k.
Originally by: AnakieNine
I only visually do it in my mind now-a-days and felt trying to put the rest of the process into words and simple and relatively effective checks would be seen as less confusing Maybe less negative by some people
I also do it visually. All, all those pictures I posted in the last month(s) were exclusively to show MDers the bits and gears behind what can be done "at a glance". This is why it's a "work" to me, because:
- I don't need graphs / lines etc. to do TA, they are only there to teach (I know, the word is bold) others.
- I don't even have any advantage doing TA as I don't have time to play nor ISK for these things. It's really and only done to give traders another perspective on their own "job".
Originally by: AnakieNine
Also VV great job on that last Audit you did. Very detailed.
Thanks a lot.
- Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.11 12:56:00 -
[133]
Edited by: Raid''En on 11/10/2010 12:57:18
you counted this thread on your analysis of the situation ? think it will help a bit ? ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.10.11 13:39:00 -
[134]
Edited by: PinkFish on 11/10/2010 13:40:54
Originally by: Raid'En Edited by: Raid''En on 11/10/2010 12:57:18
you counted this thread on your analysis of the situation ? think it will help a bit ?
I don't think my bond will get enough capital to really have a big impact on the market. 60B would have made a dent in the down manipulation going on but ~20b won't push them into submission on its own.
One thing to consider about my bond, though. If a lot of big players were pulling out of Tech for a few months and really thought they were going to see a crash there would be lots of public isk available for a bond like mine. Major speculators as a group are most able to understand the way collateral on my bond works and would see the value in parking their isk there while pulling out of a big market. The fact that everyone is so tight with isk lately suggests they don't believe Tech is really going to drop far before it resumes its ascent.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.10.11 14:06:00 -
[135]
Originally by: Raid'En you counted this thread on your analysis of the situation ? think it will help a bit ?
That's about a fifth of what I could do with personal funding alone, and barely represents over one day's worth of trade... so, no, I doubt it would have much of an impact. _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.10.11 14:44:00 -
[136]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Raid'En you counted this thread on your analysis of the situation ? think it will help a bit ?
That's about a fifth of what I could do with personal funding alone, and barely represents over one day's worth of trade... so, no, I doubt it would have much of an impact.
Quit yer yappin and start moving Technetium back up already.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.10.11 14:50:00 -
[137]
Originally by: PinkFish Quit yer yappin and start moving Technetium back up already.
Why bother making a play trying to push something huge in a direction it's already moving if just sitting on your ass doing nothing will yield almost the same end result with far less effort ?
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.10.11 14:57:00 -
[138]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: PinkFish Quit yer yappin and start moving Technetium back up already.
Why bother making a play trying to push something huge in a direction it's already moving if just sitting on your ass doing nothing will yield almost the same end result with far less effort ?
To punish the people who are working so hard to move it against the current.
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.11 15:00:00 -
[139]
Originally by: Akita T
Why bother making a play trying to push something huge in a direction it's already moving if just sitting on your ass doing nothing will yield almost the same end result with far less effort ?
to be praised as our savior ? ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
flakeys
DRAMA Inc Sev3rance
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Posted - 2010.10.11 16:09:00 -
[140]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Raid'En you counted this thread on your analysis of the situation ? think it will help a bit ?
That's about a fifth of what I could do with personal funding alone, and barely represents over one day's worth of trade... so, no, I doubt it would have much of an impact.
I'd say throwing less then 100 Bille on top of it won't make the effect last longer then a few days tops.
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.10.11 18:51:00 -
[141]
Originally by: AnakieNine
I'm starting to have slight suspicion that someone may be having fun doing the opposite of what is being written in MD. I know I often did that myself. The last few market direction changes have all occured just a couple of hours after the previous positive posts. Even when nothing has changed for days and things where improving to the point of another push upwards. I'm not really sure what to make of that atm or how long the market/player/players will dump stock on sell orders every time things look good again. Guess its a nice way to shot yourself in the foot long term. I know I wouldn't do unless I wanted to be out before patch day, or before patch notes.
I don't know that it's such a bad idea tbh. If the stock holder has a big enough stockpile that it's going to take a while to unload (let's say 2m units or more) it could be in their interest to ensure the price doesn't get too spikey exactly because of the upcoming patch...
Consider that CCP is likely watching the Tech price, themselves not entirely convinced it's a prom/dyspro type bottleneck that needs changing (because lets face it they're not too bright economically speaking); they may have a 'fix' ready to put out if it's needed, let's face it that's why we get worried every patch , so long as the price isn't an unchecked upward spike they're unlikely to deploy said 'fix' because they only interfere after things have gone catastrophically wrong.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.11 23:57:00 -
[142]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 12/10/2010 00:13:08 Edited by: AnakieNine on 12/10/2010 00:09:38 Cant agree more with all the comments.
Something to notice. We still haven't reached the end ship prices that we had a week after the patch almost a year ago. :) CCP didn't change it then even with all the outcry we had. Will they do anything yet?
Nothing is really to far out of wack price wise. No wave of complaints coming from the masses. Also moons are worth about 60b now a year compaired to the old dyspro moons that where worth 160b a year for a long time before the changes. Imo Eve really needs those flash points and lag hopefully will soon allow for it. But I covered all that in a previous post.
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Aliella
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Posted - 2010.10.12 00:25:00 -
[143]
Edited by: Aliella on 12/10/2010 00:30:41 I just purchased 6 blocks in the range 2000 to 6000 units.
All belonged to Beefive and Kayce Ravoc. The same two alts you mentioned helped crashed the price earlier. The 400k order is owned by Lord Elven not Beefive as you were told.
Edit. Posted a bit late. I see you have already removed the comment about being told that Beefive owned the 400k block.
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.12 13:31:00 -
[144]
Originally by: AnakieNine
Nothing is really to far out of wack price wise. No wave of complaints coming from the masses. Also moons are worth about 60b now a year compaired to the old dyspro moons that where worth 160b a year for a long time before the changes. Imo Eve really needs those flash points and lag hopefully will soon allow for it. But I covered all that in a previous post.
but the price of the other moons mineral were not the same at this moment... now exept the big 3, there only 1 or 2 thing worth the fuel of a tower :/ price of all little moon mat have totally crashed, hile fuel have raised a lot with pi. so even if tech price is not a real problem, moon price in general are a problem, so maybe they will act, but technium won't be the goal, only a part of it. ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.12 14:28:00 -
[145]
Simple reactions on moons were not profitable a year ago either. The reason being that corps mine the abundant materials locally so that they don't have to import it. Once they get an excess as always happens it is dumped on the market.
If you want to make isk on low end moons you need to run it in Complex Reactions and make 200-350mil a month. Nothing new or odd there.
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Sugar Jugs
Juggalicious
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Posted - 2010.10.13 02:28:00 -
[146]
Edited by: Sugar Jugs on 13/10/2010 02:31:29 Fun times today.
Fullerides with a 10mil units buy order @ 1,485/unit. People been pretty sketchy updating their buys in jumps lately (much prefering to 0.01) so the question is will the other traders pony up to bump or wait it out (about a 1/2 day volume to fill that).
Tech buys really aren't moving. Sells have gone up about 3k in the last 20hrs, so maybe some movement there. Someone needs to cash out and dump on buys again I reckon. :p
Fulleride buy order appears to be a legit manufacturer, not a speculator. :)
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2010.10.13 02:33:00 -
[147]
Originally by: Sugar Jugs Edited by: Sugar Jugs on 13/10/2010 02:31:29 Fun times today.
Fullerides with a 10mil units buy order @ 1,485/unit. People been pretty sketchy updating their buys in jumps lately (much prefering to 0.01) so the question is will the other traders pony up to bump or wait it out (about a 1/2 day volume to fill that).
Tech buys really aren't moving. Sells have gone up about 3k in the last 20hrs, so maybe some movement there. Someone needs to cash out and dump on buys again I reckon. :p
Fulleride buy order appears to be a legit manufacturer, not a speculator. :)
Someone bought out a bunch of smaller sell orders and tried to relist them a couple thousand higher in a big sell order... only to promptly have a bunch of smaller sell orders .01 isk it back down. There are forces at work to prop up the price, but with that large of a gap and no movement there seems to be a trend to lower price.
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Sugar Jugs
Juggalicious
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Posted - 2010.10.13 03:32:00 -
[148]
Bam! Something just happened.... no idea what, but the 10mil unit buy order is gone and sells now 1578.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.13 21:31:00 -
[149]
Probably just a large builder that expected the technetium price drop to effect the fulleride and nonotransistor price. They probably gave up hopes of it falling and repurchased at once after a try in buy orders.
Fullerides had a lower profit margin compared to nanostranistors. So it makes since to choose fullerides. I'm glad those those pesky multi million sell orders are gone.
We are almost 20 days from the tech peak so product from that supply should start hitting the nano and fulleride market. If any of the producers dropped out or cut back their reactions we might see a move obvious shortage in those two items.
Here's to a potential price pull from those if that happens.
Another thing to consider. Just like people sold product cheaply made from the old 50k technetium was a negative during the price rise, we should now see a few people who made fullerides/nanos from the 80k higher price drag their feet. It wont have as much effect as it would have if they actually made a loss using 80k technetium. However it should add a few percentage points too.
My guess would be nanos and fullerides will rise next before technetium. Should someone dump a tonne of nanos/fullerides within the next few hours once again then we know someone is out to stop any possible increase.
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.13 23:49:00 -
[150]
Originally by: AnakieNine
Edit) Ironic. at 21:55 and only 25 minutes after this post (yet 8 houts after the fulleride price change) someone placed a 3million unit fulleride sell order. Probably just coincidence but still v.funny.
you must have solten the girl of someone, because there's a guy who really hate you xD ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.10.14 12:57:00 -
[151]
I usually stick to fundamentals in commentary, though I play the psychology game often enough when trading, but I have to comment on the last day or so. It seems that actual users of tech have refused to accept the somewhat arbitrary sell price of 70k set by all the heavy speculation over the last week. It seems we've decided 70k is the way forward, for a little while at least, but they haven't. It will be interesting to see who caves first, especially with the weekend coming up.
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.10.14 13:04:00 -
[152]
Originally by: SetrakDark I usually stick to fundamentals in commentary, though I play the psychology game often enough when trading, but I have to comment on the last day or so. It seems that actual users of tech have refused to accept the somewhat arbitrary sell price of 70k set by all the heavy speculation over the last week. It seems we've decided 70k is the way forward, for a little while at least, but they haven't. It will be interesting to see who caves first, especially with the weekend coming up.
I see a lot of buy orders disappearing... and the same old sell orders dropping, new ones coming in to under cut those. I am no Warren Buffet, but I would say you caved first and us producers are going to set a new price point for a while.
Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
evehost.homeip.net:9991
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.10.14 13:30:00 -
[153]
Originally by: King Aires I would say you caved first and us producers are going to set a new price point for a while.
Call yourself a "builder" or a "consumer" because "producer" is too confusing in this context.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.10.14 13:38:00 -
[154]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: King Aires I would say you caved first and us producers are going to set a new price point for a while.
Call yourself a "builder" or a "consumer" because "producer" is too confusing in this context.
Unless, of course, you actually mean you are mining technetium yourself, in which case...well, that wouldn't make much sense. :)
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.10.14 14:02:00 -
[155]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: King Aires I would say you caved first and us producers are going to set a new price point for a while.
Call yourself a "builder" or a "consumer" because "producer" is too confusing in this context.
True good sir, or mam... Replace producer with buyer... the whole point is, for the short term it is a buyers market.
Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
evehost.homeip.net:9991
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.10.15 16:46:00 -
[156]
Originally by: King Aires I see a lot of buy orders disappearing... and the same old sell orders dropping, new ones coming in to under cut those. I am no Warren Buffet, but I would say you caved first and us producers are going to set a new price point for a while.
Too early to tell for sure, but it looks like 70k will hold. I was leaning towards speculators folding when I posted earlier, but it looks like the big variations are smoothing and we're moving to a stable price.
I think someone would have to put up a sizable block to successfully crash the price in a manipulation attempt now.
Btw, this is all just idle speculation; neither a serious attempt to analyze the short term market nor a cheap manipulation attempt.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.10.16 04:26:00 -
[157]
Originally by: King Aires for the short term it is a buyer's market
Emphasis on "short"
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.10.16 10:05:00 -
[158]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: King Aires for the short term it is a buyer's market
Emphasis on "short"
I am still dreaming that one of these expansions would produce for us a T3 mining ship that is more customizable than the hulk or mack... and crash the tech market all in one
Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.10.17 20:41:00 -
[159]
So in Tech related news, "someone" just bought Nanotransistors out and relisted quite a lot of them at ~7k.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.18 00:02:00 -
[160]
Interesting. I personally I would have used that isk in other ways if my goal was to push tech related products up. My guess would be that it was a large builder knowing that he will need/use it.
Much better to bulk buy once and let your competitors pay a little more for it. Also push a couple of people out of the market for a short period of time.
Time to watch how quick stock reappears.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.10.18 00:25:00 -
[161]
Originally by: AnakieNine Interesting. I personally I would have used that isk in other ways if my goal was to push tech related products up. My guess would be that it was a large builder knowing that he will need/use it.
Much better to bulk buy once and let your competitors pay a little more for it. Also push a couple of people out of the market for a short period of time.
Time to watch how quick stock reappears.
I thought large builder myself at first, because the market cleared of everything u to 4500 first, and then I checked back earlier and it had been cleared and (I think) reposted at 7k. Admittedly I didn't see whether the stacks at 7k were already there, but eh.
And the 7k point was almost instantly undercut by half a million units at 5k, and then another half million just under that, and say ~2.5 million units total at 5k now. So there's your answer for that. Doesn't really cover the daily volume though, so it may be interesting to watch.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.18 01:29:00 -
[162]
I still doubt its a traders. Or at least not a very good one.
Whenever you buyout a days worth of Jita's sales someone always places new stock up quickly. Normally it takes only 1-2 minutes for someone to see their wallets flash, note the the large increase in isk in their wallet, and then check into it. The next step is put more stock up. If it doesn't happen in the first 2-3 minutes your normally safe for a couple of hours depending on the time of day and the item. I
Whether a builder/trader you are generally always forced to buy more than you really wanted to inorder to push prices up. Therfore after purchasing out stock you almost always want to re-list some at high prices. The first reason is simple. To cash in on any easy isk that you can offload at the max price. Mad if you dont. :) However the main reason for putting up sell orders is that if you don't set a new price by some idoit will see no stock for sale and set the new price at a couple of percent above the old one. I never understood this except that some people are idiots :)
Its also wise to set the new price about 1/3 about what you want. Crazy but it seems to be the sweet spot to get what you really want.
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Raid'En
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Posted - 2010.10.21 10:56:00 -
[163]
well seems it's a "see you in 3 months" for technium >_< ---------------- ** Wormhole Trading ** |
AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.21 12:44:00 -
[164]
Most likely. At least for a few weeks imo. I sold off a small portion. Partly as protection in case of any changes in the upcoming patch and partly because there are some great opportunities in the markets atm.
The idea is swap out to a higher performing item, gain 10%+ and maybe return to reinvest the profits at hopefully the same price level.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.10.21 13:46:00 -
[165]
You heard it here first folks, sell the heck out of your tech.
;)
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Phey Onat
Sigillum Militum Xpisti
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Posted - 2010.10.21 19:57:00 -
[166]
Edited by: Phey Onat on 21/10/2010 19:59:39 Projected profits won't be realized for months. Too long for the lemmings. You heard it folks! Sell! Sell!
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.22 00:22:00 -
[167]
ATM I'm seeing something with the letters y s :) being a good opportunity. It's fun picking the next item to invest in before others. Very satisfying and why I moved some stock.
Techn itself isn't in to bad a shape. I just found something else to stick more isk into. The blocking 311k tech order at 81k along with time itself has been doing its job nicely as explained previously. Not to many orders left above 81k any more as people have been shifting their sell orders down. This allows more opportunity for another price breakout down the track. Only 2.3 million units below 80k on sell orders as well. Not to bad. even better odds when you consider that about 1 million units of those are in just 4 large orders at 70k that someone(s) doesn't really seem to want to move. They might disappear all at once. It depends if they are playing games with those orders. If so I will miss out on the stock I moved. :)
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.10.22 02:11:00 -
[168]
Originally by: AnakieNine ATM I'm seeing something with the letters y s :) being a good opportunity. It's fun picking the next item to invest in before others. Very satisfying and why I moved some stock.
Techn itself isn't in to bad a shape. I just found something else to stick more isk into. The blocking 311k tech order at 81k along with time itself has been doing its job nicely as explained previously. Not to many orders left above 81k any more as people have been shifting their sell orders down. This allows more opportunity for another price breakout down the track. Only 2.3 million units below 80k on sell orders as well. Not to bad. even better odds when you consider that about 1 million units of those are in just 4 large orders at 70k that someone(s) doesn't really seem to want to move. They might disappear all at once. It depends if they are playing games with those orders. If so I will miss out on the stock I moved. :)
lol, your warning of a break out because there is a couple large orders at 70k? there is 650k units placed between 67 and 70k, I would be more worried that the large 80+ orders are going to get dumped below the 65k line to sell off stock before the next crash. There are some powerful players trying to keep this price up, but I think one should get into a wait and see pattern right now, not buy in to this mess.
That is of course unless your willing to throw 50 billion isk into the market just to jump the price to a whopping 71k
Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
evehost.homeip.net:9991
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.10.22 06:10:00 -
[169]
Originally by: AnakieNine This allows more opportunity for another price breakout "down the track"
As said, "down the track". So not warning of a break out today.. The comment overall was a follow up on talks about blocking orders and their use. Although summarised it is relevant to this post on page 4 of this thread.
Originally by: AnakieNine
Ok back to techn and how I would have done it if techn was not so public. Also important that the general public's knowledge isn't that it was going up long term. That causes problems and makes the job harder. So before posting and making it even more public I would do this...
First the large strings of sell orders in the range 80k-100k have to go. So a large order or orders placed at 80k would do well. Not unlike the current ones that are sitting there.... but larger like the 700k one. Also picking a nice BRN (big round number) helps. Make people think you are someone that has just left them there at 10% etc profit and forgotten about it. The owners of many of the bids in the 80-100k range will watch it and when they decide that you aren't moving it, they often move their order below yours oinstead of waiting for yours to sell, or the 90days for it to disappear. After an initial mass migration of higher orders below yours it generally takes 10-30 days for the others to give up after deciding the opportunity to sell high is gone. They move the order. Latter when you perceive the cost to force the breakout is optimal and cheap you buy up all the sell orders stock below yours and move your large order. In effect creating the price break out. The less public the item is the better it works :)
At its peak there were 4.2m units under 80k and about 2million units above 80k. Total 6.2m units. So once again its now more likely to allow a break out with less orders above the current "average" market price. No one has to worry now about buying 2m units above 80k at 15+% loss if it fails. Try selling it back above 80k and you crash the market b4 making any extra profit offyour old stock.
As for that 650k units? :) You don't sound like a trader? Its just normal daily trades for that item. I'm less worried about normal day trade volumes for an item. Traders can manage that short term to some degree. I'm always more worried about guessing the stockpiles that aren't on the market and what those people will do. Help or Hinder?
Originally by: King Aires
I would be more worried that the large 80+ orders are going to get dumped below the 65k line to sell off stock before the next crash.
I would personally love for all that volume at 80+k to be moved below 70k. That is what blocking orders mentioned above can be used for. If that happened it would be sold in the next few days and traders wouldn't have to spend as much to push for a price rise. Once the 80k orders are gone we (figurative speaking) would change the price of our blocking order/s to our goal price instead of spending very much on buying out stock at inflated prices. So it would be a good thing. A trader can move normal daily sale volumes to a new price without too much problem, but stock at 10-15% inflated prices cuts into profits. It is all about less risk, more chance of reward for the traders work.
Disregarding methods like the one above, traders are left to wait out the 90days for the old high priced stock to drop off. Stock that is generally left from mismanaged previous price break outs. Ones that result in a large number of sell orders running downward 10-30%.
Originally by: King Aires
but I think one should get into a wait and see pattern right now, not buy in to this mess.
Yes. That is what I am doing too right now. Reinvesting a portion in another set of items (y s) and see what tech looks like in another 2 weeks. ofc watching for changes in tech in the meantime.
That said, my personal investment in tech is a little on the heavy side. Its the whole reason I ranted about tech's low price in the first place.
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2010.10.26 13:06:00 -
[170]
AHHHHH!!!!! 50k by Christmas
You heard it here first folks
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.10.26 18:39:00 -
[171]
I still really think Akita was right in his analysis that demand outstrips supply in the Technetium market. My view is that the buy-up to 70k caused a panic buy from traders who didn't want to miss out, and who slowly give up on the next big spike thereby releasing a little at a time putting the market in a temporary equilibrium. I also take it that many people who use Technetium are running on lower and lower stockpiles trying to wait out what they perceive to be a run-of-the-mill manipulation.
Talk of "powerful players" engaging in a grand manipulation is just fear mongering. The price would have dropped back to 40k by now if this was a player-driven cycle. There are numerous people who are selling tech in such a way as to try and drive price down, and their efforts repeatedly fail before they pick up momentum. I can see how someone who doesn't play in markets as big as Tech regularly would see this as manipulation. The reason I think they are wrong is that f the only thing keeping prices up were people buying lower orders to sustain a floor, then you wouldn't see bites getting taken out of the lower blocking orders every couple of days.
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2010.10.26 20:35:00 -
[172]
Originally by: PinkFish I still really think Akita was right in his analysis that demand outstrips supply in the Technetium market. My view is that the buy-up to 70k caused a panic buy from traders who didn't want to miss out, and who slowly give up on the next big spike thereby releasing a little at a time putting the market in a temporary equilibrium. I also take it that many people who use Technetium are running on lower and lower stockpiles trying to wait out what they perceive to be a run-of-the-mill manipulation.
Talk of "powerful players" engaging in a grand manipulation is just fear mongering. The price would have dropped back to 40k by now if this was a player-driven cycle. There are numerous people who are selling tech in such a way as to try and drive price down, and their efforts repeatedly fail before they pick up momentum. I can see how someone who doesn't play in markets as big as Tech regularly would see this as manipulation. The reason I think they are wrong is that f the only thing keeping prices up were people buying lower orders to sustain a floor, then you wouldn't see bites getting taken out of the lower blocking orders every couple of days.
Maybe its the new owners of Tech moons in the north who don't wanna play along with the "fair price" model of the NC.
Maybe it is the falling price and over supply of the advanced materials which makes Tech look less appealing.
Maybe its lower demand of T2 ships since T1 are super cheap and everyone and their brother flies a Tengu or Loki when not in their Super Cap.
Maybe it is the price of moon fuel who took the less hardened T2 producers out of the market, thus creating less competition for the same number of raw materials.
Maybe I ate cat the the "You know who far east" restaurant I was at last night, who cares:
50k by Christmas! Hell, 50k by Thanksgiving
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Fire Stone
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Posted - 2010.10.26 23:44:00 -
[173]
Edited by: Fire Stone on 26/10/2010 23:45:33 Has anyone mentioned or realized that 65% of the Technetium moons are all in Black Rise controlled by very few entities. 17 in Black Rise.. 13 all the rest of eve.
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TooFatToFish
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Posted - 2010.10.27 00:17:00 -
[174]
Originally by: Fire Stone Edited by: Fire Stone on 26/10/2010 23:45:33 Has anyone mentioned or realized that 65% of the Technetium moons are all in Black Rise controlled by very few entities. 17 in Black Rise.. 13 all the rest of eve.
56%, and get out.
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.10.27 00:22:00 -
[175]
Its that time again, is it? Ok...
DOOMED, WE'RE ALL DOOMED!!! SELL!!!
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Phey Onat
Sigillum Militum Xpisti
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Posted - 2010.10.27 04:24:00 -
[176]
Originally by: Fire Stone Edited by: Fire Stone on 26/10/2010 23:45:33 Has anyone mentioned or realized that 65% of the Technetium moons are all in Black Rise controlled by very few entities. 17 in Black Rise.. 13 all the rest of eve.
There are more than 13 in the rest of EVE. Black rise does have alot for lowsec
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Betty Boom
Caldari SPECTRE Syndicate
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Posted - 2010.10.27 11:51:00 -
[177]
Originally by: Fire Stone Edited by: Fire Stone on 26/10/2010 23:45:33 Has anyone mentioned or realized that 65% of the Technetium moons are all in Black Rise controlled by very few entities. 17 in Black Rise.. 13 all the rest of eve.
Nice Troll. There are 120+ Technetium moons in Venal. There are 550+ Technium moons in the Game from CR to Branch to Drone region.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.05 13:59:00 -
[178]
A SERIOUSLY agressive manipulation going on at the moment
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.05 15:50:00 -
[179]
Someone with huge stockpiles has been trying to push it down for a few days, I think its remarkable that it has held this well...
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flakeys
DRAMA Inc Sev3rance
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Posted - 2010.11.05 15:56:00 -
[180]
Originally by: volhar Someone with huge stockpiles has been trying to push it down for a few days, I think its remarkable that it has held this well...
Started a week back with stocks of 200k ... appearantly it didnt work as he/thhey wanted and currently throwing multiple 200k stocks , a 400k AND a 500k on there.
If tech doesnt hit 62 now i dunno what will.
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.11.05 16:21:00 -
[181]
Originally by: flakeys
Originally by: volhar Someone with huge stockpiles has been trying to push it down for a few days, I think its remarkable that it has held this well...
Started a week back with stocks of 200k ... appearantly it didnt work as he/thhey wanted and currently throwing multiple 200k stocks , a 400k AND a 500k on there.
If tech doesnt hit 62 now i dunno what will.
What makes you think its someone trying to push it down and not a group that had previously propped it up frustrated that the price was not breaking a seal, thus dropping their interest in the manipulation.
I think what we are seeing here is a relaxed control of the Northern entities coupled with the speculators who had held for so long selling off due to lack of price increase. I think someone called 50k by the holidays and I would not be surprised to see that happen. Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
evehost.homeip.net:9991
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flakeys
DRAMA Inc Sev3rance
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Posted - 2010.11.05 16:33:00 -
[182]
Originally by: King Aires
Originally by: flakeys
Originally by: volhar Someone with huge stockpiles has been trying to push it down for a few days, I think its remarkable that it has held this well...
Started a week back with stocks of 200k ... appearantly it didnt work as he/thhey wanted and currently throwing multiple 200k stocks , a 400k AND a 500k on there.
If tech doesnt hit 62 now i dunno what will.
What makes you think its someone trying to push it down and not a group that had previously propped it up frustrated that the price was not breaking a seal, thus dropping their interest in the manipulation.
I think what we are seeing here is a relaxed control of the Northern entities coupled with the speculators who had held for so long selling off due to lack of price increase. I think someone called 50k by the holidays and I would not be surprised to see that happen.
Could well be the case but then it's done in a verry bad way.Both with timing and with volume.Offcourse for some profit is profit even if they kill their own with a big % in the end.
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.11.05 18:59:00 -
[183]
There are a few players that have been trying very hard to crash Technetium for a while now. You see them undercut with 5-6 orders between the same 2-3 people by 1-2k every couple weeks. Its expected the the climb Tech took would attract speculators who don't have a clue about how commodities work and strange dumb plans would be hatched during a slow period like this.
Wherever tech drops to as speculators exit it's still going to have an underlying supply/demand problem. The active attempt to crash tech (not sure if thats whats going on today, haven't been on to check) says someone really wants to reinvest but thinks they should get a low price.
Maybe the manipulation is running low on Tech and they are hoping the last of their stock will be enough to push the price down so they can resupply. If they didn't know what they are doing that kind of plan would be easy to come up with.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.05 20:12:00 -
[184]
Originally by: King Aires
Originally by: flakeys
Originally by: volhar Someone with huge stockpiles has been trying to push it down for a few days, I think its remarkable that it has held this well...
Started a week back with stocks of 200k ... appearantly it didnt work as he/thhey wanted and currently throwing multiple 200k stocks , a 400k AND a 500k on there.
If tech doesnt hit 62 now i dunno what will.
What makes you think its someone trying to push it down and not a group that had previously propped it up frustrated that the price was not breaking a seal, thus dropping their interest in the manipulation.
I think what we are seeing here is a relaxed control of the Northern entities coupled with the speculators who had held for so long selling off due to lack of price increase. I think someone called 50k by the holidays and I would not be surprised to see that happen.
It seems extremely doubtful that anyone who had been propping the market up or speculating on it would dump their stock in such a heavy handed way, so as to guarantee that they would lose more money than necessary on the cash out. It would also be a very surprising coincidence if they had just happened to place accidental blocking orders in the most effective places, leaving them in place until they had gained the precise result that manipulators would be looking for, before bringing them down to squeeze prices down a bit further. It would also be rather strange for people who were cashing out in such a careless way to replace any blocking orders that got eaten through on an almost mechanical basis, making no effort to soften the blows of their own sell offs and acting in such a way as to devalue the remainder of their own stocks. Of course, it's possible. But if it walks like a duck, talks like a duck and places market orders like a duck then ...
hmmm ... metaphor took on a life of its own there. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.11.05 23:44:00 -
[185]
Edited by: corestwo on 05/11/2010 23:45:41
Originally by: King Aires
Originally by: flakeys
Originally by: volhar Someone with huge stockpiles has been trying to push it down for a few days, I think its remarkable that it has held this well...
Started a week back with stocks of 200k ... appearantly it didnt work as he/thhey wanted and currently throwing multiple 200k stocks , a 400k AND a 500k on there.
If tech doesnt hit 62 now i dunno what will.
What makes you think its someone trying to push it down and not a group that had previously propped it up frustrated that the price was not breaking a seal, thus dropping their interest in the manipulation.
I think what we are seeing here is a relaxed control of the Northern entities coupled with the speculators who had held for so long selling off due to lack of price increase. I think someone called 50k by the holidays and I would not be surprised to see that happen.
Tech has been steadily dropping and you still think there is any sort of active control by Northern entities.
That's cute.
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.11.06 02:08:00 -
[186]
Originally by: corestwo Edited by: corestwo on 05/11/2010 23:45:41
Originally by: King Aires
Originally by: flakeys
Originally by: volhar Someone with huge stockpiles has been trying to push it down for a few days, I think its remarkable that it has held this well...
Started a week back with stocks of 200k ... appearantly it didnt work as he/thhey wanted and currently throwing multiple 200k stocks , a 400k AND a 500k on there.
If tech doesnt hit 62 now i dunno what will.
What makes you think its someone trying to push it down and not a group that had previously propped it up frustrated that the price was not breaking a seal, thus dropping their interest in the manipulation.
I think what we are seeing here is a relaxed control of the Northern entities coupled with the speculators who had held for so long selling off due to lack of price increase. I think someone called 50k by the holidays and I would not be surprised to see that happen.
Tech has been steadily dropping and you still think there is any sort of active control by Northern entities.
That's cute.
Good day sir That was my point, I don't think there is active control, precisely because of some new people I see in Deklein. Again I say good day Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
evehost.homeip.net:9991
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.06 02:35:00 -
[187]
Originally by: King Aires
Good day sir [...] Again I say good day
Are you Fez from "That 70s Show" ?
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.11.06 03:06:00 -
[188]
Originally by: King Aires
Good day sir That was my point, I don't think there is active control, precisely because of some new people I see in Deklein. Again I say good day
Allow me to correct myself.
"You think there ever was any sort of active control by Northern entities.
That's cute."
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.11.06 14:30:00 -
[189]
Originally by: corestwo
"You think there ever was any sort of active control by Northern entities.
Yeah that one also always makes me conversely giggle and snort with derision.
(I'm NC btw)
BIG Lottery |
flakeys
DRAMA Inc Sev3rance
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Posted - 2010.11.06 15:51:00 -
[190]
Originally by: TornSoul
(I'm NC btw)
Who isn't
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Kesper North
Caldari Reliables Inc Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.11.06 20:03:00 -
[191]
Originally by: corestwo
Originally by: King Aires
Good day sir That was my point, I don't think there is active control, precisely because of some new people I see in Deklein. Again I say good day
Allow me to correct myself.
"You think there ever was any sort of active control by Northern entities.
That's cute."
But there was. We tried to fix the price at 35k. -- Killed me? Read about it in my blog! Northern Lights: Solo PVP in EVE Online
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.07 01:33:00 -
[192]
looks like whoever is messing with tech has abandoned all pretenses of subtlety... 800K order up
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.11.07 06:30:00 -
[193]
Originally by: volhar looks like whoever is messing with tech has abandoned all pretenses of subtlety... 800K order up
And that plunged it down into the mid 50's on buy side too. Tempting, I must admit.
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flakeys
DRAMA Inc Sev3rance
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Posted - 2010.11.07 08:04:00 -
[194]
Originally by: corestwo
Originally by: volhar looks like whoever is messing with tech has abandoned all pretenses of subtlety... 800K order up
And that plunged it down into the mid 50's on buy side too. Tempting, I must admit.
Ouch there indeed just noticed.
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Inbrainsane
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Posted - 2010.11.07 10:10:00 -
[195]
Someone dumped a big load into buy orders, that is all. I got me some below 60k. Nothing has fundamentally changed, Tech is the bottleneck of T2 Production and T2 is becomeing more and more standard. Until CCP brings the nerf, there is only one way for Tech: up.
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2010.11.07 11:38:00 -
[196]
I'm starting to lean more towards the Akita T conspiracy. This all started right when VV called Akita T a market maker.
So now the name of the game is how low will Tech go before we all buy back in.
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.11.07 13:36:00 -
[197]
Originally by: PinkFish I'm starting to lean more towards the Akita T conspiracy. This all started right when VV called Akita T a market maker.
So now the name of the game is how low will Tech go before we all buy back in.
It does absolutely no good to the Tech market to have a bunch of speculators buying in all the time. All it does is create an artificial rise in price and then an artificial drop like we are seeing now. When non-consumers buy in, it create back up stockpiles, these have to be sold some time and when they are, the price tanks.
To see the true market value of Technetium, people need to stop treating it like a cash rollercoaster. The same thing happens with oil in real life, people are using it as a prop against inflation betting that oil will go up as the value of their currency goes down. The problem is, we have massive stockpiles of the stuff and eventually a crash will occur (like when it went from 140 to 70). Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
evehost.homeip.net:9991
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.11.07 13:45:00 -
[198]
Originally by: PinkFish
So now the name of the game is how low will Tech go before we all buy back in.
It's getting close aint it
BIG Lottery |
RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.09 22:08:00 -
[199]
I love you Market Cop
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JitaPriceChecker2
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Posted - 2010.11.09 22:30:00 -
[200]
SELL NOW . IT IS ONLY 55k. Speculators made all the profit.
If you you keep tech in station , you lost eve.
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.09 22:53:00 -
[201]
Originally by: JitaPriceChecker2 SELL NOW . IT IS ONLY 55k. Speculators made all the profit.
If you you keep tech in station , you lost eve.
subtle
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2010.11.10 02:35:00 -
[202]
So there's a buy order up at 54501.19 for 3.5m units. hmmm
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.11.10 15:06:00 -
[203]
Originally by: Herman Klaus So there's a buy order up at 54501.19 for 3.5m units. hmmm
Margin trading ftw
(~45B ISK outlay) BIG Lottery |
volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.10 15:17:00 -
[204]
even with margin trading, that still counterbalances the 800K sell stack... the min volume is set at one so if you sell to it it will go through (up to a certain point)
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Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.11.10 15:51:00 -
[205]
That buy order will set the price skywards. I just managed to buy a little at 56k today, I should have had more liquids to buy everything below 60K :( tomorrow the price will be 65 is my guess. ----------------------- "Signatures" chatroom / Hydra Fund / LLSE Stock Market |
volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.10 16:09:00 -
[206]
also depends on what Mr. Bigstack McManipulator does... if he decides the game is up and pulls down the massive orders, then it might get fun
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Billy Hardcore
Phoenix Industries
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Posted - 2010.11.10 18:22:00 -
[207]
Tech's already up 5% today, the manipulators are swinging it again. 3.5m unit floor is a pretty big (titan) sign.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.11 10:45:00 -
[208]
Where did that buy order go?
Is there any floor to broker fees or can you get them down to 0% with perfect standings? If there is a floor, what's the minimum that placing and removing that order could have cost?
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Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.11.11 10:59:00 -
[209]
Originally by: RAW23 Where did that buy order go?
Is there any floor to broker fees or can you get them down to 0% with perfect standings? If there is a floor, what's the minimum that placing and removing that order could have cost?
There is a floor, there are some MD threads explaining it if you search. I am guessing it must have cost 100 mil? ----------------------- "Signatures" chatroom / Hydra Fund / LLSE Stock Market |
volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.11 12:42:00 -
[210]
The floor is around 0.2% I believe
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.11.11 13:35:00 -
[211]
About 340 million if the number I'm remembering for the floor is actually accurate.
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.11 13:54:00 -
[212]
either way, masterfully done to get it to rebound, I'm impressed
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2010.11.11 14:25:00 -
[213]
Originally by: volhar either way, masterfully done to get it to rebound, I'm impressed
Question now is how high is it going to go?
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.11.11 19:13:00 -
[214]
Originally by: Herman Klaus
Originally by: volhar either way, masterfully done to get it to rebound, I'm impressed
Question now is how high is it going to go?
Oh yeah, it's just unstoppable what with that million units under 64k sitting there... Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
evehost.homeip.net:9991
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.11 20:49:00 -
[215]
it bounced it up 15% in a day, I'd call that significant
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2010.11.11 20:56:00 -
[216]
Originally by: King Aires
Originally by: Herman Klaus
Originally by: volhar either way, masterfully done to get it to rebound, I'm impressed
Question now is how high is it going to go?
Oh yeah, it's just unstoppable what with that million units under 64k sitting there...
I bought at 56 and sold at 62. Happy with that. Back to the normal trades now :-)
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.11.12 10:10:00 -
[217]
Originally by: volhar it bounced it up 15% in a day, I'd call that significant
It could be a W, impulsive speculators should beware of bull traps. - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2010.11.15 15:26:00 -
[218]
There is now 900k units of Tech below 62k. There is now 2.5 million units at or below 66k
I think you are seeing the manipulators give up or get out and we are about to see the true value of Technetium soon.
Problem is, I don't think it will be in the direction most of you are thinking/hoping it will be.
Tech below 50k by Christmas, no joke.
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.15 15:36:00 -
[219]
I have to admit its not doing what I thought it would, but I still sold all of mine already so it doesnt really matter. It'll head down for a while, but unless it is in fact not the bottleneck (and I doubt that so many people could have gotten that wrong) it will go back up... 2.5m units is really only a few days trading volume when you think about it.
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2010.11.15 17:47:00 -
[220]
Originally by: volhar I have to admit its not doing what I thought it would, but I still sold all of mine already so it doesnt really matter. It'll head down for a while, but unless it is in fact not the bottleneck (and I doubt that so many people could have gotten that wrong) it will go back up... 2.5m units is really only a few days trading volume when you think about it.
Yeah that is over 150 billion isk in extra tech on the market. Not to mention the daily production. 3 days worth of extra stock at a low price is a ton considering the market is supposed to be dry all the time.
It is the bottleneck, but its not like T2 ships are the only thing people can fly. The low price of T1 and T3 alternatives makes Tech very elastic. I feel there are still large piles of Tech held by speculators which we have not seen dumped yet on the market. When that happens, tech drops below 50k.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.15 20:03:00 -
[221]
Are some of you guys really thinking that this is a natural fall in price?
I've sampled the market by buying from the bottom order 47 times over the last 8 days. Roughly 30% of the time (15 samples) that order has belonged to Market Cop. Another c. 20% of the orders (9) have belonged to Kayce Ravoc. 3 other names crop up 3 times. So, on the basis of this unscientific sample about 70% of the undercutting is being done by 5 characters and 50% by just 2.
Watching these orders for a bit I have seen these guys undercutting themselves to give the illusion of downwards momentum. The few times I have managed to be present when a big drop in price happened, it has also involved these guys. As far as I can see there is little question of this downwards pressure being due to a general underlying trend. These characters are just working it hard and effectively. The big sell orders also clearly seem to be blocking orders as no attempt is being made to actually sell them.
I'm enjoying the masterclass on market manipulation though and have picked up some cheap tech on the back of their work. Thanks lads! |
Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2010.11.15 20:43:00 -
[222]
Originally by: RAW23 Are some of you guys really thinking that this is a natural fall in price?
I've sampled the market by buying from the bottom order 47 times over the last 8 days. Roughly 30% of the time (15 samples) that order has belonged to Market Cop. Another c. 20% of the orders (9) have belonged to Kayce Ravoc. 3 other names crop up 3 times. So, on the basis of this unscientific sample about 70% of the undercutting is being done by 5 characters and 50% by just 2.
Watching these orders for a bit I have seen these guys undercutting themselves to give the illusion of downwards momentum. The few times I have managed to be present when a big drop in price happened, it has also involved these guys. As far as I can see there is little question of this downwards pressure being due to a general underlying trend. These characters are just working it hard and effectively. The big sell orders also clearly seem to be blocking orders as no attempt is being made to actually sell them.
I'm enjoying the masterclass on market manipulation though and have picked up some cheap tech on the back of their work. Thanks lads!
Are you really still assuming that there is a master plot to drop the price of Tech? Can you be that naive? More likely and simply the solution to this riddle is those corps you mentioned were part of the manipulation upwards over the last few months and are now trying to get out while they can, remember some people thought Tech would be 150k by now, imagine your disappointment if you bought in at 35k a much more natural price and now can barely get out at 60k... not even doubling your investment after 4 or 5 months is pretty sad, thats what these guys are doing, selling due to disappointment.
The simplest answer is usually the correct one. To think that people would come together to sabotage a market is complex, to think that people got in on the hype to drive it up is much more simple.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.15 20:53:00 -
[223]
Edited by: RAW23 on 15/11/2010 20:53:55
Originally by: Satyri Hermides
Originally by: RAW23 Are some of you guys really thinking that this is a natural fall in price?
I've sampled the market by buying from the bottom order 47 times over the last 8 days. Roughly 30% of the time (15 samples) that order has belonged to Market Cop. Another c. 20% of the orders (9) have belonged to Kayce Ravoc. 3 other names crop up 3 times. So, on the basis of this unscientific sample about 70% of the undercutting is being done by 5 characters and 50% by just 2.
Watching these orders for a bit I have seen these guys undercutting themselves to give the illusion of downwards momentum. The few times I have managed to be present when a big drop in price happened, it has also involved these guys. As far as I can see there is little question of this downwards pressure being due to a general underlying trend. These characters are just working it hard and effectively. The big sell orders also clearly seem to be blocking orders as no attempt is being made to actually sell them.
I'm enjoying the masterclass on market manipulation though and have picked up some cheap tech on the back of their work. Thanks lads!
Are you really still assuming that there is a master plot to drop the price of Tech? Can you be that naive? More likely and simply the solution to this riddle is those corps you mentioned were part of the manipulation upwards over the last few months and are now trying to get out while they can, remember some people thought Tech would be 150k by now, imagine your disappointment if you bought in at 35k a much more natural price and now can barely get out at 60k... not even doubling your investment after 4 or 5 months is pretty sad, thats what these guys are doing, selling due to disappointment.
The simplest answer is usually the correct one. To think that people would come together to sabotage a market is complex, to think that people got in on the hype to drive it up is much more simple.
Sure - it makes much more sense that people are so desperate to get rid of their stock that they are undercutting their own sell orders. I mean, the idea of someone manipulating a market in eve! Pure conspiracy theory.
edit - I'm not suggesting any sort of master plot. It seems clear that there are only a handful of people selling stuff from sell orders at the moment.
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Zora
Gallente Vector Industries
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Posted - 2010.11.15 23:43:00 -
[224]
Not trying to imply anything at all, but saying that Tech can't reach any higher than the current 60-65k dance is not really a realistic measurement either. Remember dyspro? Yeah, it took a while, but it did indeed reach well over 100k price ranges - which is the same that will happen to Tech, when the circumstances are right. Of course people fly T1 too, but they always did that, and I don't think it's really the point. There are other variables at play here right now.
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Victriferusianus
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Posted - 2010.11.16 07:57:00 -
[225]
Originally by: RAW23 Edited by: RAW23 on 15/11/2010 20:53:55
Originally by: Satyri Hermides
Originally by: RAW23 Are some of you guys really thinking that this is a natural fall in price?
I've sampled the market by buying from the bottom order 47 times over the last 8 days. Roughly 30% of the time (15 samples) that order has belonged to Market Cop. Another c. 20% of the orders (9) have belonged to Kayce Ravoc. 3 other names crop up 3 times. So, on the basis of this unscientific sample about 70% of the undercutting is being done by 5 characters and 50% by just 2.
Watching these orders for a bit I have seen these guys undercutting themselves to give the illusion of downwards momentum. The few times I have managed to be present when a big drop in price happened, it has also involved these guys. As far as I can see there is little question of this downwards pressure being due to a general underlying trend. These characters are just working it hard and effectively. The big sell orders also clearly seem to be blocking orders as no attempt is being made to actually sell them.
I'm enjoying the masterclass on market manipulation though and have picked up some cheap tech on the back of their work. Thanks lads!
Are you really still assuming that there is a master plot to drop the price of Tech? Can you be that naive? More likely and simply the solution to this riddle is those corps you mentioned were part of the manipulation upwards over the last few months and are now trying to get out while they can, remember some people thought Tech would be 150k by now, imagine your disappointment if you bought in at 35k a much more natural price and now can barely get out at 60k... not even doubling your investment after 4 or 5 months is pretty sad, thats what these guys are doing, selling due to disappointment.
The simplest answer is usually the correct one. To think that people would come together to sabotage a market is complex, to think that people got in on the hype to drive it up is much more simple.
Sure - it makes much more sense that people are so desperate to get rid of their stock that they are undercutting their own sell orders. I mean, the idea of someone manipulating a market in eve! Pure conspiracy theory.
edit - I'm not suggesting any sort of master plot. It seems clear that there are only a handful of people selling stuff from sell orders at the moment.
I would like to add that Market Cop and Kayce Ravoc are also buying technetium so it seems that they are trading the gap and not trying to get rid of their stock. |
AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.11.16 10:51:00 -
[226]
Originally by: RAW23
I've sampled the market by buying from the bottom order 47 times over the last 8 days. Roughly 30% of the time (15 samples) that order has belonged to Market Cop. Another c. 20% of the orders (9) have belonged to Kayce Ravoc. 3 other names crop up 3 times. So, on the basis of this unscientific sample about 70% of the undercutting is being done by 5 characters and 50% by just 2.
You might want to research a little wider. When you check a lot of the main Jita trades you will find that these players tend to play the gap on a lot of these items. It also seems easy to make them do what you want. So not a lot of intelligence in how they operate at times. Still, they do camp the trade gap with no real motivation for pushing the price in either direction and they have been doing that for a while. Kayce Ravoc and Beefive (if Beefive is still in tech) seems to belong to the same player as stated earlier in this thread. They follow each others orders on both the buy and sell side at the same time as long as they have spare isk.
I reduced my tech holdings a bit, as quoted earlier in this thread (dated 2010.10.22)
Originally by: AnakieNine
Originally by: King Aires
but I think one should get into a wait and see pattern right now, not buy in to this mess.
Yes. That is what I am doing too right now. Reinvesting a portion in another set of items (y s) and see what tech looks like in another 2 weeks. ofc watching for changes in tech in the meantime.
That said, my personal investment in tech is a little on the heavy side. Its the whole reason I ranted about tech's low price in the first place.
I'm glad I got some stock out of tech at that time and during the next week after that quote and prices were still 15-20% higher then now. Those blocking orders were becoming a pain. As for that "set of items" with the letters (y s)? Well it was the Planetar"Y" material"S" group. Congratulations for those that worked it out. You would have done quite well. A little cryptic but not so much when you consider my other posts about robotics in VV's Time Analyst TA thread? (I think it was that one) I didn't want to publicly tell everyone on the forums and make it as easy as the tech rant I had made at the start of this thread. So congrats on anyone that went with it. I managed to do well in planetary materials. Both Robotics and mechanical parts are up 50% in a month. consumer electronics up 100%. Transmitter's, coolant, and rocket fuel doing ok with a decent increase of 20%.
Even though PI still looks really good its getting to a point where i might put some of the isk back into tech. The profit from PI goods and the saving from tech going down gives it a nice current exchange rate for the month. I'm just not sure at the moment if its going to go down or up in the short term. I might have to check it out properly. A quick glance shows that it could easily go either way this week or just keep going on with the status quo for a while.
The 3? incursion patches over the few months is a bit of a shame as it keeps a bit of uncertainty to tech from the remote chance of a moon patch not ending this month but in jan/feb instead. I was keeping this months patch day as a possible get back in time. I'm sure a lot of other player were too. Ofc I don't think CCP will change it as I stated several times thought out the thread. Still that doesn't mean other players will have the same opinion, and general player mood always effects price. So we now have more of that for the next 2+ months. A real shame and a question mark still hanging over tech. I suspect that the current trend is related to that as much as anything else. People protecting themselves for patch day. I guess I will watch for signs and decide on my next move. :)
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Claude Dibbler
Science and Trade Institute
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Posted - 2010.11.16 16:53:00 -
[227]
I just get back to eve from a 2yrs break, could someone tell me what is this "moon patch" mentioned in the post above ? Also what the hell they were thinking when they revoked the moon mins market, a single r32 mineral cost more than all r64 ?
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.11.16 20:37:00 -
[228]
No moon patch has been mentioned by CCP. Just players thinking that there may be one since they also have the same question as you did.
Why is a r32 more expensive than the r64? Some answer have been discussed in this thread a few times. My opinion?
It could be CCP making more flash points, making it harder to monopolize. More competition on the market. The r64 moons where to easily controlled, both literally and market wise. CCP might have been trying to create a temporary lull in massive 0.0 fleet fights since the moons were not worth figthing over for about 6+ months. Did CCP think it would give them enough time to fix the lag problem? Maybe. You get the idea. I feel all the effects/changes are good ones that I would have made myself. Well all except for having every tech moon in the north. This may have been because IT aren't in the north. The perceived impression that CCP play favourites was damaging the game and had to be rectified. 2 years ago it was mentioned in something like 1 in 4 threads. So was it damage control? If so it seems to have worked well. The north are much loved by CCP.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.16 21:52:00 -
[229]
Originally by: AnakieNine Edited by: AnakieNine on 16/11/2010 11:04:35
Originally by: RAW23
I've sampled the market by buying from the bottom order 47 times over the last 8 days. Roughly 30% of the time (15 samples) that order has belonged to Market Cop. Another c. 20% of the orders (9) have belonged to Kayce Ravoc. 3 other names crop up 3 times. So, on the basis of this unscientific sample about 70% of the undercutting is being done by 5 characters and 50% by just 2.
You might want to research a little wider. When you check a lot of the main Jita trades you will find that these players tend to play the gap on a lot of these items.
I've certainly seen Market Cop playing the same game elsewhere. The reason I suspect the blocking orders belong to at least some of the people trading the gap is because a forcing down of the price of the goods and the placement of large blocking orders has also been a feature I have seen before with that name. I'm not sure what purpose the blocking orders are supposed to serve if not to depress the price (whoever owns the 700k+ unit order doesn't seem to have any interest in actually selling it), allowing for a more or less guaranteed hefty bonus when they decide to release the pressure. The technique looks very similar to that used in the salvage markets earlier in the year and also throughout most of the year on some T3 salvage (the only markets I have paid much attention to big manipulations in).
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2010.11.17 11:58:00 -
[230]
Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 17/11/2010 12:01:08
Originally by: RAW23
I've certainly seen Market Cop playing the same game elsewhere. The reason I suspect the blocking orders belong to at least some of the people trading the gap is because a forcing down of the price of the goods and the placement of large blocking orders has also been a feature I have seen before with that name. I'm not sure what purpose the blocking orders are supposed to serve if not to depress the price (whoever owns the 700k+ unit order doesn't seem to have any interest in actually selling it), allowing for a more or less guaranteed hefty bonus when they decide to release the pressure. The technique looks very similar to that used in the salvage markets earlier in the year and also throughout most of the year on some T3 salvage (the only markets I have paid much attention to big manipulations in).
Perhaps the blocking orders allows them to increase the rate of turnover for them? It keeps the gap between buy and sell quite close perhaps driving some people out of the buy-order market. My thinking on this is that if the gap is small enough then those that want to buy the product for use will be more inclined to just buy off the sell orders, rather than try out-1-isking to save a couple million from a billion isk order. If the gap is larger however it'd be more worth their time to use the buy orders instead?
This allows the people putting block orders in place to trade the gap more effectively because their buy orders wont be outbid as much. Those selling tech will be more inclined to sell to a buy order due to the minimal difference in price but huge difference in time synch for trying to put their own sell orders in. Their sell orders are fulfilled by those wishing to buy the product for themselves! Maybe, maybe not, just my thoughts :)
I also suspect the number of stocks left over from before PI are not as high as people think, not to the extent where millions are left behind. I may be wrong, and anyone with before-PI stock might enlighten me, but from the quantity bought before the expansion it doesn't look like there are millions and millions held back. That, to me, says the price is being held down artificially, perhaps those trading the gap are the ones that put the blocking orders in, as I said above. They could also be people that need to USE tech at the same time, so they profit on gap trading and keep prices low for the stock they keep for their own use? At some point the price will have to rise though, that is my guess. All just half-baked thoughts in my noggin for now though. |
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Tasko Pal
Aliastra
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Posted - 2010.11.17 13:48:00 -
[231]
Originally by: Caldariftw123
I also suspect the number of stocks left over from before PI are not as high as people think, not to the extent where millions are left behind. I may be wrong, and anyone with before-PI stock might enlighten me, but from the quantity bought before the expansion it doesn't look like there are millions and millions held back. That, to me, says the price is being held down artificially, perhaps those trading the gap are the ones that put the blocking orders in, as I said above. They could also be people that need to USE tech at the same time, so they profit on gap trading and keep prices low for the stock they keep for their own use? At some point the price will have to rise though, that is my guess. All just half-baked thoughts in my noggin for now though.
Then where did the quantities for the block orders come from? And why hold down the price artificially? The strategy you outline above works much better when they center the spread so that they get as much buy as sell volume (that is, "market price").
Given that the average price hasn't moved much for the past week and falls about halfway between the hi and low, this indicates to me that we have a bit of short term stability and a modest indication that maybe the price isn't being held down, even with the huge slabs on top.
As an aside, it's been a while since I was on MD, but is this talk of market manipulation going to be a THING every time some big good falls from a peak? I was seeing it with the thread on intact armor plates too.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.11.17 13:51:00 -
[232]
Originally by: Tasko Pal
Originally by: Caldariftw123
As an aside, it's been a while since I was on MD, but is this talk of market manipulation going to be a THING every time some big good falls from a peak? I was seeing it with the thread on intact armor plates too.
When the only tool in your toolbox is a hammer...
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King Aires
Kwame's Executive Protection Detail
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Posted - 2010.11.17 13:57:00 -
[233]
Originally by: corestwo
Originally by: Tasko Pal
Originally by: Caldariftw123
As an aside, it's been a while since I was on MD, but is this talk of market manipulation going to be a THING every time some big good falls from a peak? I was seeing it with the thread on intact armor plates too.
When the only tool in your toolbox is a hammer...
There is a major reluctance for people who followed Akita off the cliff to admit that they may have been wrong. Or at the very least that they may have exaggerated the estimates a little. When people cannot admit their less than perfect they come up with all sorts of theories, the one that seems to fly here is market manipulation. The reason most smart people do not buy it is, we all like isk, why market manipulate downwards if your playing a gap? That seems more tricky than it's worth. Home of the Free Eden TS3 Server for small corps:
evehost.homeip.net:9991
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2010.11.17 14:02:00 -
[234]
Originally by: Tasko Pal
Then where did the quantities for the block orders come from? And why hold down the price artificially? The strategy you outline above works much better when they center the spread so that they get as much buy as sell volume (that is, "market price").
Given that the average price hasn't moved much for the past week and falls about halfway between the hi and low, this indicates to me that we have a bit of short term stability and a modest indication that maybe the price isn't being held down, even with the huge slabs on top.
As an aside, it's been a while since I was on MD, but is this talk of market manipulation going to be a THING every time some big good falls from a peak? I was seeing it with the thread on intact armor plates too.
From what I can see the quantities holding it back are quite large but not "millions" - I wasn't saying there are no stocks, or that the stocks are small, I'm just saying I don't think there are millionS being held back.
There are many ways to read conspiracy theories into this, and a lot of it might not be even close to the truth! I am just giving possibilities and am definitely not pretending to know the answer. Another strategy however that the blocking orders might allow:
Someone who does have a stock of quite a bit may wish to see other people's stock disappear. If the price looks stable, and the gap trading happens enough, then those with pre-PI stock will start dumping. Especially those that saw the 80k spike and missed it, they may think "well this is as good as it gets!" thus removing competition and ensuring that your own stock will be worth more. If those blocking orders are removed the price will then be allowed to climb and you'll be a) holding more backstock than others and b) have less people to compete with when you try sell it, so the market wont dip as much after the next time it spikes.
I still think the price can go higher, once more stocks dry up. If the demand outstrips the production of new supply that is .. Otherwise it can stay at this level forever, with bought amount and sold amount balancing out. This could be a strategy used by a producer who uses tech and has some stock from pre-PI, to put in large blocking orders to ensure that the price does not rise.
How many people are 'involved in teh conspiracy!' or whether any exists, or how many strategies are being used by how many people, it's all fun guessing at the moment .. we may never know the real answers though! ;)
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Adolf Axiom
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Posted - 2010.11.17 14:08:00 -
[235]
Edited by: Adolf Axiom on 17/11/2010 14:09:14
Originally by: King Aires
There is a major reluctance for people who followed Akita off the cliff to admit that they may have been wrong. Or at the very least that they may have exaggerated the estimates a little. When people cannot admit their less than perfect they come up with all sorts of theories, the one that seems to fly here is market manipulation. The reason most smart people do not buy it is, we all like isk, why market manipulate downwards if your playing a gap? That seems more tricky than it's worth.
I think the main reason people suspect a manipulation is not due to being stubborn. When testing the buy and sell orders the same names crop up again and again, and buy/sell orders from the same person outbid themselves often, implying a desire to keep buy/sell prices within a certain gap-size. Whether it's a clever manipulation or some backwards ass-hat having lols is another matter, but why would you outbid your own orders unless you are trying to influence the price? Why would you do this on both the buy AND sell side, unless you had a reason to?
The estimations on supply/demand that were worked out were fairly accurate given the data we've got to hand about the moons etc. in play. Whether the price rises to 100+ or not is more a guess than an estimate, it may be that the peak will be 75 and it'll never get higher? It's fairly obvious to me though that without the blocking orders and the manipulations (whatever the reason for them) then the price would not be steady at 58-62, it would be higher.
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volhar
|
Posted - 2010.11.23 16:00:00 -
[236]
Lots of tech dissapeared off the market over the weekend, we're bumping against the 800K blocking order again... I wonder if it'll get dented this time |
SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.11.23 17:09:00 -
[237]
Originally by: volhar Lots of tech dissapeared off the market over the weekend, we're bumping against the 800K blocking order again... I wonder if it'll get dented this time
or magically disappear...
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megar scopion
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Posted - 2010.11.24 03:06:00 -
[238]
That 800k order just disappeared. Judging by the sales volume today it was purchased by someone.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.11.24 05:21:00 -
[239]
Originally by: megar scopion That 800k order just disappeared. Judging by the sales volume today it was purchased by someone.
Had a leftover 156k from an older 250k order at exactly 65k. It was purchased by a character named "Aliella". That was a nice 10+ bil in one single move. _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Johney Stardust
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Posted - 2010.11.24 05:51:00 -
[240]
While in a private channel I was told that T'amber purchased the 800k block.
Interesting I thought.
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Bilbo Baggin
Gallente The Scope
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Posted - 2010.11.24 05:59:00 -
[241]
Originally by: Johney Stardust Edited by: Johney Stardust on 24/11/2010 05:56:28 While in a private channel I was told that T'amber purchased the 800k block. Sounded like they had sell orders either side of it.
So that means Jakkin? since the character was sold.
Interesting I thought.
T'Amber got around 200k off me also
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.11.24 06:50:00 -
[242]
T'amber's current owner also was responsible for taking Robotics from 50k to 57k this weekend, for what it's worth.
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zz01shagsme
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Posted - 2010.11.24 09:44:00 -
[243]
so - when is ccp going to change this passive income?
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Inbrainsane
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Posted - 2010.11.24 10:03:00 -
[244]
Edited by: Inbrainsane on 24/11/2010 10:07:27
Originally by: Inbrainsane Someone dumped a big load into buy orders, that is all. I got me some below 60k. Nothing has fundamentally changed, Tech is the bottleneck of T2 Production and T2 is becomeing more and more standard. Until CCP brings the nerf, there is only one way for Tech: up.
I made a billion by buying below 60k and selling it now.
Originally by: zz01shagsme so - when is ccp going to change this passive income?
Are you joking? Do you have a slight idea how many fleet operations (several hours long, hundreds of players) have to be conducted to acquire, hold and protect Tech Moon POS?
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zz01shagsme
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Posted - 2010.11.24 10:56:00 -
[245]
Originally by: Inbrainsane Edited by: Inbrainsane on 24/11/2010 10:07:27
Originally by: Inbrainsane Someone dumped a big load into buy orders, that is all. I got me some below 60k. Nothing has fundamentally changed, Tech is the bottleneck of T2 Production and T2 is becomeing more and more standard. Until CCP brings the nerf, there is only one way for Tech: up.
I made a billion by buying below 60k and selling it now.
Originally by: zz01shagsme so - when is ccp going to change this passive income?
Are you joking? Do you have a slight idea how many fleet operations (several hours long, hundreds of players) have to be conducted to acquire, hold and protect Tech Moon POS?
Actually I do, and what has that got to do with it? its a joke that those that are lucky enough to sit on a tech moon can make a lot of isk just by hauling it to jita and dont give me bullcrap about hauling it and risk etc... i run two fulleride poses so i know about it...and for that matter i do it in a system on my own.
correct me if i am wrong but there currently isnt any need to hold the moons becuase no one is fighting?
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.11.24 11:03:00 -
[246]
Quote:
so - when is ccp going to change this passive income?
Why should CCP do anything when you are meant to go stop the passive income with your alliance? - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2010.11.24 11:08:00 -
[247]
Originally by: zz01shagsme
correct me if i am wrong but there currently isnt any need to hold the moons becuase no one is fighting?
Maybe? http://www.evenews24.com/2010/11/20/tenal-attacked-by-new-pandemia/
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zz01shagsme
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Posted - 2010.11.24 11:16:00 -
[248]
Originally by: AnakieNine
Originally by: zz01shagsme
correct me if i am wrong but there currently isnt any need to hold the moons becuase no one is fighting?
Maybe? http://www.evenews24.com/2010/11/20/tenal-attacked-by-new-pandemia/
uhmm didn't know that....In all accounts PL are very good at what they do. Does this mean you expect the off spring of Technetium reactions will increase in price? I am looking and seeing the 70K tech price not being covered by Jita prices.
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Tasko Pal
Aliastra
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Posted - 2010.11.24 13:28:00 -
[249]
Originally by: zz01shagsme
uhmm didn't know that....In all accounts PL are very good at what they do. Does this mean you expect the off spring of Technetium reactions will increase in price? I am looking and seeing the 70K tech price not being covered by Jita prices.
Edit: or warrant an outlay of 1.4bill a week for 15m profit a day?
There's nothing magical about Pandemic Legion either. There's always war in 0.0. You have to have the power to hold the tech moon against invaders (and use it on a regular basis so that people stay interested and sharp). You also have to worry about spies, small gangs looking for kills, etc. These add considerable risk and cost (mostly in player time consumed) to tech moon mining.
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volhar
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Posted - 2010.11.24 13:42:00 -
[250]
Now the question is: is it a patient buyer, waiting for Tech's true price, or a pump and dump?
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Inbrainsane
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Posted - 2010.11.24 20:25:00 -
[251]
Edited by: Inbrainsane on 24/11/2010 20:29:31
Originally by: zz01shagsme
Actually I do, and what has that got to do with it? its a joke that those that are lucky enough to sit on a tech moon can make a lot of isk just by hauling it to jita and dont give me bullcrap about hauling it and risk etc... i run two fulleride poses so i know about it...and for that matter i do it in a system on my own.
correct me if i am wrong but there currently isnt any need to hold the moons becuase no one is fighting?
I have to correct you, you are wrong. There are fights over Tech moons every day. You are not "lucky enough", you are "strong enough" to have tech moons. And that strength is contested all the time. If you fail to fight back, everyone and his dog comes after your Tech Moons and after your space. Noone cares about your ****ty fullerides POS. Everyone knows where the tech moons are. And yes, there is constant fighting going on in 0.0 space.
Originally by: zz01shagsme
Does this mean you expect the off spring of Technetium reactions will increase in price?
No, why would it? PL is not stupid. If you kill a Tech Moon POS you put up your own POS immediately and a few hours later Tech is flowing again.
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Manipulation Attempt
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Posted - 2011.01.10 16:24:00 -
[252]
Time to take another look. Following a month of inactivity the big sell orders slowly chipped away, and now we're testing 75k again. My expectation is to see another medium sized retraction around 80k to upper 60s again. Then the roadblocks to 100k will be eroded and gone.
Hope you didn't sell off and leave this big money maker of a market.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.01.10 16:55:00 -
[253]
I doubt it. Akita just dropped half a million units at 75k so it's unlikely to move up to 80+ for a while. Once the patch comes, though, people will be more comfortable with buying the market up so that might move things on a bit faster.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.01.10 17:23:00 -
[254]
Edited by: Akita T on 10/01/2011 17:26:48
Originally by: RAW23 I doubt it. Akita just dropped half a million units at 75k so it's unlikely to move up to 80+ for a while. Once the patch comes, though, people will be more comfortable with buying the market up so that might move things on a bit faster.
I had 250k at 70k for well over a month before that... and I seriously doubt I am anywhere near the largest tech stockpile holder. Then again, the daily trade volume is hovering to about double of what I just placed, so you never know. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Manipulation Attempt
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Posted - 2011.01.10 17:29:00 -
[255]
So did Akita drop 500k units to sell Tech or to buy Tech?
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.01.10 17:31:00 -
[256]
Edited by: Akita T on 10/01/2011 17:33:58 Source RAW23 was citing Had 3.5 mil, put up 500k for sale at 75k, next batch will probably be around 1 mil at 80k. I like big round numbers. Doesn't everybody ? Plus I'm really lazy. I hate babysitting orders. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.01.10 17:35:00 -
[257]
It is a little ironic that, having talked up the prospects of tech reaching 100k plus prices, Akita is now providing some of the biggest obstacles to it achieving those prices soon.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.01.10 17:38:00 -
[258]
Edited by: Akita T on 10/01/2011 17:43:27
I'm also contrarian like that BTW, the near-50k ceiling that lasted nearly 1 week in the distant past, that was my 1 mil units at 50k that helped there, if memory serves right
It makes some sense though, for tech to reach decent enough prices sooner, it needs to grow steadily so that technetium consumers don't get too spooked nor flock in/out too fast. In the long run, a steadily growing pricetag reaches equilibrium faster than a seesawing commodity. There's more profit to be had in trade from one that seesaws, true, but then again, you need to be around and fight for your order placements, which I just won't be doing, so... _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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StuRyan
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Posted - 2011.01.11 09:55:00 -
[259]
Do you see the price of technetium products sawing too?
The reason why i ask is because I do not fancy spending 1.5 bil + to run a reaction pos for a week to get anything lesss than 30m profit a day.
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SetrakDark
DarkCorp Legion
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Posted - 2011.01.12 17:08:00 -
[260]
Edited by: SetrakDark on 12/01/2011 17:08:45 Well I finally cashed in during the last peak after holding since 25k pu. Considering all my efforts were going towards running a null-sec corporation, it was a great way to increase my capital with no effort. However, I've realized that although demand still outstrips production at 70k, there are a ton of people still holding vast stockpiles. Every time the price peaks its head above 70k, another million or so units get cashed by different holders. My guess is 6 months to a year before you see a steady price above 70k, with a lot of low 60s in between now and then.
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.01.12 23:48:00 -
[261]
Originally by: SetrakDark there are a ton of people still holding vast stockpiles.
I think I've alluded to as much on a few occasions earlier
BIG Lottery |
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
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Posted - 2011.01.13 00:19:00 -
[262]
While I doubt anyone here still thinks of tech moons as i-Win buttons, it's worth keeping in mind that there are serious battles over these things. For example, on January 2, there was a big shindig between Pandemic Legion and the Northern Coalition (go NC!). 8 titans and 1 mothership got turned into Minmatari art. There were a bunch of other expensive ships ground into dust during this fight (including 18 strategic cruisers!). I gather the current titan price is somewhere around 60 billion for the hull. So we're probably looking at well over half a trillion isk just in titan kills and virtually all of it is uninsured.
At a guess, I gather that's something like 8.5 years output of a tech moon, assuming it was all sold in Jita. That's one way you add to the cost of keeping tech moons.
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RaTTuS
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.01.24 17:04:00 -
[263]
did it go over 75k last night? --
Join BIG
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.01.24 17:17:00 -
[264]
Originally by: RaTTuS did it go over 75k last night?
No, but a 50k chunk has been taken out of Akita's blocking order at 75k isk.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.01.24 17:22:00 -
[265]
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: RaTTuS did it go over 75k last night?
No, but a 50k chunk has been taken out of Akita's blocking order at 75k isk.
50K in that time eh .. at that rate it'll be past 75K in a few months :D It's reached a price points now where any heavy investment comes with some serious risk and a long long wait to recoup, so that 500K order could very well hold for a long time.
Then again someone with lots of isk and not a care in the world might buy it all out.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.01.24 17:31:00 -
[266]
Originally by: Caldariftw123
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: RaTTuS did it go over 75k last night?
No, but a 50k chunk has been taken out of Akita's blocking order at 75k isk.
50K in that time eh .. at that rate it'll be past 75K in a few months :D It's reached a price points now where any heavy investment comes with some serious risk and a long long wait to recoup, so that 500K order could very well hold for a long time.
Then again someone with lots of isk and not a care in the world might buy it all out.
Well, it's hardly surprising that it will take a while to burn through a stack worth 37.5 billion isk. In order to even touch Akita's stack, which has only been there for a few days, quite a lot of other 100k stacks have already been burnt through. Personally, I was surprised that it was even touched this soon since it shows that even with the stock dumping at this price point, demand is outstripping supply by a fair margin.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.01.26 05:39:00 -
[267]
85k now ... this can't go well. |
RaTTuS
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.02.10 12:49:00 -
[268]
Oh My 81k
--
Join BIG
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.02.10 14:07:00 -
[269]
I'm still not bullish about tech in the 80k+ range. I underestimated the strength of the steady non-speculative demand at this price, but I've convinced myself of the vast stockpiles still to go. Furthermore, I think the people who hold them are the kind of people who only check in every few weeks, so we'll still see some big dips as huge stockpiles are sold off in a delayed response to price increases.
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RaTTuS
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.02.21 13:08:00 -
[270]
my wallet just got BIG --
Join BIG
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.02.21 13:14:00 -
[271]
Originally by: RaTTuS my wallet just got BIG
"71,683,575,583.92" So did Akita T's wallet lol
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missminer69
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Posted - 2011.02.21 14:23:00 -
[272]
Looks like unless you have capped a tech moon you can no longer produce technetium components for a profit (albeit next to nothing).
Is that the case?
Initial investment is appraoching 2bil for a weeks worth a reaction?
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.02.21 17:59:00 -
[273]
up up ...and AWAY
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Zun Da
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Posted - 2011.02.21 18:30:00 -
[274]
Who buys all this stuff?
And where will be the next threshold? |
Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.02.21 18:35:00 -
[275]
Who knows but i bet it crashs bad .. sell sell
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.02.21 18:37:00 -
[276]
Originally by: Tanaka Kharn Who knows but i bet it crashs bad .. sell sell
Yeah, sell sell, quick quick |
Leroy Daniels
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Posted - 2011.02.21 18:46:00 -
[277]
Looks like Neo wont be catching up with Tech soon after all
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.02.21 19:15:00 -
[278]
Notice the high daily volume, meaning someone bought in again for speculation.
I'm probably still going to be saying the same thing when it's at 120+ and look like even more of a jackass, but this just doesn't seem right. I keep waiting for the big stockpile cashins, yet they never come (besides akita), and people are still buying in to hold at ever higher prices. I'm not one of those people who thinks it's going to crash hard, but this last leg of price rises is moving way too fast for all the tech that I think is still out there.
Makes me nervous...
Also, ya, neod rocks. I've made a fukton off of neod and related products, despite having no clue why it's rising so fast
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.02.21 19:23:00 -
[279]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Notice the high daily volume, meaning someone bought in again for speculation.
I'm probably still going to be saying the same thing when it's at 120+ and look like even more of a jackass, but this just doesn't seem right. I keep waiting for the big stockpile cashins, yet they never come (besides akita), and people are still buying in to hold at ever higher prices. I'm not one of those people who thinks it's going to crash hard, but this last leg of price rises is moving way too fast for all the tech that I think is still out there.
Makes me nervous...
Also, ya, neod rocks. I've made a fukton off of neod and related products, despite having no clue why it's rising so fast
? Volume isn't particularly high, previous days have been higher.. Lots of backstock of 100K+ orders were stuck on the market and simply eaten up.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.02.21 19:28:00 -
[280]
Originally by: Caldariftw123
Originally by: RaTTuS my wallet just got BIG
"71,683,575,583.92" So did Akita T's wallet lol
No, actually, that was BEFORE the buyoff. Now it's 156 bil-ish And I just put up another half mil at 90k, so that's another 45 bil in waiting Still have 1.5 mil extra other than the above-mentioned ones. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.02.21 19:29:00 -
[281]
Originally by: Caldariftw123 ? Volume isn't particularly high, previous days have been higher.. Lots of backstock of 100K+ orders were stuck on the market and simply eaten up.
I swear to god the graph was just at a little under 2m units for the day. Now it's down to 1m...
Buggy-ass game.
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2011.02.21 19:30:00 -
[282]
Originally by: Akita T
Now it's 156 bil-ish And I just put up another half mil at 90k, so that's another 45 bil in waiting Still have 1.5 mil extra other than the above-mentioned ones.
Good god, I've been doing it wrong!
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Leroy Daniels
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Posted - 2011.02.21 19:35:00 -
[283]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Also, ya, neod rocks. I've made a fukton off of neod and related products, despite having no clue why it's rising so fast
Look for Akita's original thread where he predicted the insane price increase of Technetium and you will see why Neo is going up.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.02.21 19:37:00 -
[284]
Originally by: Leroy Daniels
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Also, ya, neod rocks. I've made a fukton off of neod and related products, despite having no clue why it's rising so fast
Look for Akita's original thread where he predicted the insane price increase of Technetium and you will see why Neo is going up.
I will. Thanks.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.02.21 19:40:00 -
[285]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar this just doesn't seem right. I keep waiting for the big stockpile cashins, yet they never come (besides akita), and people are still buying in to hold at ever higher prices. I'm not one of those people who thinks it's going to crash hard, but this last leg of price rises is moving way too fast for all the tech that I think is still out there. Makes me nervous...
Well, absent CCP intervention, there's absolutely no chance of it to crash hard at all, at most it can correct after an overspeculation, but that's about it. The hilarity however would come in case CCP actually DOES decide to do something (yeah, I know, not much of a chance, but there still is some), afterall, it's been well over a year and everything has been evolving pretty much exactly the way the doomsayers (like myself) have been warning (granted, the timeline is a bit slower, but that's about it), so CCP MIGHT just do something... ...and if that "something" happens without warning (like yet another build material adjustment, but this time without hefty SiSi warning time), whoever is still holding on to massive stockpiles could end up quite burned overnight (they'll still get burned even with warning, just not quite as badly).
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.02.21 19:44:00 -
[286]
Suggest you put that spare 1.5 mil on the table then
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.02.21 19:47:00 -
[287]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Notice the high daily volume, meaning someone bought in again for speculation.
I'm probably still going to be saying the same thing when it's at 120+ and look like even more of a jackass, but this just doesn't seem right. I keep waiting for the big stockpile cashins, yet they never come (besides akita), and people are still buying in to hold at ever higher prices. I'm not one of those people who thinks it's going to crash hard, but this last leg of price rises is moving way too fast for all the tech that I think is still out there.
Makes me nervous...
Also, ya, neod rocks. I've made a fukton off of neod and related products, despite having no clue why it's rising so fast
Well, you could for example look at what consumes technetium and try to figure out the relation between technetium consumed and technetium piled up for speculation.
What consumes technetium? Nanotransistors and Fullerides.
You need 50 technetium (plus other stuff) to produce 1500 nanotransistors and 50 technetium (plus other stuff) to produce 3000 Fullerides.
How many nanotransistors and fullerides are sold daily (in jita)? At least 15m nanotrans. and 20m fullerides in average. Sometimes a lot more, rarely less.
This means that these things consume roughly 830k technetium daily. That equals the output of 345 tech moons working at full capacity and all of the tech dumped onto the market, nothing of it hold back.
If you consider the trade with nanotrans and fullerides else where in New Eden to be 25% of the trade in Jita, then you come up with a need for around 1 mil technetium daily (that equals the output of 417 moons).
That are the numbers. The consumption is indisputable. The demand is there.
How much is daily traded in Jita? How much can be stockpiled?
And would it matter if the tech moon holders would hold back large amount of technetium (for example if there would be 700 or more tech moons)? Not really, since they are not at all interested in a tech price crash.
But as with all market things, you can't be ever sure that there isn't something else going on
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.02.21 20:05:00 -
[288]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Caldariftw123
Originally by: RaTTuS my wallet just got BIG
"71,683,575,583.92" So did Akita T's wallet lol
No, actually, that was BEFORE the buyoff. Now it's 156 bil-ish And I just put up another half mil at 90k, so that's another 45 bil in waiting Still have 1.5 mil extra other than the above-mentioned ones.
Awesome, congrats! Soon you'll be rich like the rest of us. :P
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.02.21 20:06:00 -
[289]
I'm referring to the vast stockpiles that were bought by speculators more than a year ago, not current extracted supply.
My point is that this (80K+ pu, 1+ year later) is where I expected anyone still holding to finally cash in. However, we haven't seen many huge stockpiles hit the market (besides akita), in fact people still seem to be buying in to hold. At some point speculators have to think that the price has peaked, then we'll see the drop to the long-term stable range. I'm just nervous that people think it's going to be 150k, not 100k, and they seem to have the balls to risk it, which makes the final sell-off choice far more risky and complex, like a game of chicken.
That or these vast speculation stockpiles no longer exist and we're in the final leg to long term stability.
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Nadarius Chrome
Celestial Horizon Corp.
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Posted - 2011.02.21 20:48:00 -
[290]
Originally by: Gnulpie How many nanotransistors and fullerides are sold daily (in jita)? At least 15m nanotrans. and 20m fullerides in average. Sometimes a lot more, rarely less.
But how many times is a single unit running through the market before being consumed? |
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.02.21 21:18:00 -
[291]
Originally by: Nadarius Chrome But how many times is a single unit running through the market before being consumed?
My guess, on average, somewhere between 1.05 and 1.25 _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Sig Sour
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Posted - 2011.02.21 21:26:00 -
[292]
Originally by: Akita T Well, absent CCP intervention, there's absolutely no chance of it to crash hard at all, at most it can correct after an overspeculation, but that's about it.
It could happen outside of CCP intervention, however EXTEREMLY unlikely that someone could get a hold of all of the "next easiest to control moon" and choke it off entirely. With absolutely no supply of that goo, technium couldn't be used to build anything, rendering it useless. Extremely unlikely. Tech is a safe investment until CCP makes a move.
So if CCP never does anything about it, then the realistic safeguard of knowing when to back off technium is when T2 ship prices start to meet T3 ship prices.
I would also like to mention that unlike most materials, Technium is likely at 100% production rate. So if there is no shady diamond business happening with a cut off of supply and 100% of it is making it to the market/mfg, then the driving force of technium will be the number of people playing Eve.
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StuRyan
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Posted - 2011.02.22 09:00:00 -
[293]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Elise DarkStar this just doesn't seem right. I keep waiting for the big stockpile cashins, yet they never come (besides akita), and people are still buying in to hold at ever higher prices. I'm not one of those people who thinks it's going to crash hard, but this last leg of price rises is moving way too fast for all the tech that I think is still out there. Makes me nervous...
Well, absent CCP intervention, there's absolutely no chance of it to crash hard at all, at most it can correct after an overspeculation, but that's about it. The hilarity however would come in case CCP actually DOES decide to do something (yeah, I know, not much of a chance, but there still is some), afterall, it's been well over a year and everything has been evolving pretty much exactly the way the doomsayers (like myself) have been warning (granted, the timeline is a bit slower, but that's about it), so CCP MIGHT just do something... ...and if that "something" happens without warning (like yet another build material adjustment, but this time without hefty SiSi warning time), whoever is still holding on to massive stockpiles could end up quite burned overnight (they'll still get burned even with warning, just not quite as badly).
Or with the Technetium Components not catching up people will just switch their reaction chain. What I am seeing is people are now reacting the technetium on the moon to make the components where as before you could buy the tech and spin a profit. With the new prices and the tech components not moving I would te market may move the other way - Fullerides and Nano transistors are now in the hands of technetium moon holders (ie the NC)... A question to ask is who is buying? If the majority of the the people who are buying technetium are thsoe that react it then I forsee a decrease in demand (as currently) the price of the tech 2 component is not increasing enough to warrant a 2 bill + investment for a weeks worth of reaction.
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Cyaxares II
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Posted - 2011.02.22 16:12:00 -
[294]
Edited by: Cyaxares II on 22/02/2011 16:12:08
CNNMoney.com headline: "Why tech is not a bubble. Seriously."
(Linkage)
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Petyr Baelich
Valar Morghulis. Get Off My Lawn
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Posted - 2011.02.22 16:21:00 -
[295]
Originally by: StuRyan Or with the Technetium Components not catching up people will just switch their reaction chain. What I am seeing is people are now reacting the technetium on the moon to make the components where as before you could buy the tech and spin a profit. With the new prices and the tech components not moving I would te market may move the other way - Fullerides and Nano transistors are now in the hands of technetium moon holders (ie the NC)... A question to ask is who is buying? If the majority of the the people who are buying technetium are thsoe that react it then I forsee a decrease in demand (as currently) the price of the tech 2 component is not increasing enough to warrant a 2 bill + investment for a weeks worth of reaction.
There is decent profit to be made running the reactions, although a lot of it is also trading profit; timing the market and setting large buy orders @ 30d lows and putting your sells at 30d highs. At current prices the manufacturing profit from running a nanotransistors reaction is about 800m/month conservatively. It's been as low as 250m recently, and as high as 1.5b. If you have the capital available to time the market there is value added production to be had from reacting the tech and not just flipping it back and forth, (which is fine too and helps normalize prices).
Reactions and component prices always lag behind raw input spikes/dips because of the amount of work involved in stopping/switching a reaction chain. People are much more likely to keep it running and hope things improve, or hold their products until prices recover. Also, reactions are fairly scalable; it's not much more work to run 6 chains as opposed to 1, so people who are already running more profitable lines and have an excess of capital can diversify into these activities. On the alliance/corp level where I expect most of the reaction chains are run this is usually seen as a high-level project for the payment of sov costs and reimbursement/capital/supercapital funding - thus there is a fair degree of "free" labor available to empty/fill silos and fuel POSs.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.02.22 18:25:00 -
[296]
And what happens if the stockpiles are used up?
People with large piles are dumping it piece by piece onto the market (250k, 500k, 1m units etc.) but it all gets gobbled up swiftly.
Right now there is less than 1 day of tradevolume for sale. Sure, soon enough someone will drop another big pile or more.
But still the question remains what happens when the reserves are gone. |
Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.02.22 18:30:00 -
[297]
Originally by: Gnulpie And what happens if the stockpiles are used up?
People with large piles are dumping it piece by piece onto the market (250k, 500k, 1m units etc.) but it all gets gobbled up swiftly.
Right now there is less than 1 day of tradevolume for sale. Sure, soon enough someone will drop another big pile or more.
But still the question remains what happens when the reserves are gone.
That's the real question: at what price will consumer demand meet the supply extracted from moons? The problem is that it's hard to identify consumer demand when it seems that speculators are still buying in.
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Sig Sour
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Posted - 2011.02.22 18:45:00 -
[298]
Originally by: Gnulpie But still the question remains what happens when the reserves are gone.
People would buy T3, faction or T1 instead. T2 prices are making BC's more and more attractive. Meta items would be used instead of T2.
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Einear Lightfingers
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Posted - 2011.02.22 21:00:00 -
[299]
4 orders left under 100K pu. Total stock under 100K pu is 283,094 units. Most orders in the 100K and above orders of 10K to 35K units that would sell off fast if that is all that is left.
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.02.22 21:09:00 -
[300]
But where does it all go?
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.02.22 21:25:00 -
[301]
Edited by: Gnulpie on 22/02/2011 21:25:02
Originally by: Tanaka Kharn But where does it all go?
Platinum Technite is the only thing you can produce with Technetium
Other than that, speculation. |
RaTTuS
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.02.23 08:24:00 -
[302]
wish I had held on to mine now.... --
Join BIG
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.02.23 12:37:00 -
[303]
Edited by: Wabs on 23/02/2011 12:38:59 im happy i only sold 1/3ds of my stock. Had about 300k, bought in at just under 25k. isk per unit. so the 100k i sold (at about 85k) coverd the investment just fine. Waiting to see when **** really starts to go wrong (ie, all the sell orders gone, would make me lol! )
maby not even a bad idea to buy MOAR tech, lol
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Gillaboo
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Posted - 2011.02.23 13:26:00 -
[304]
"CCP Intervention"... I'd love to see moon mining open up in Wormhole systems... <dramatic sigh>
-------------------------------------------------------- This space For Rent. |
Wabs
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Posted - 2011.02.23 14:10:00 -
[305]
That would be nice, have been living in a wh for about 2 years now. Would populate w-space more and give us more reasons and ppl to gank / siege systems!
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.02.25 16:06:00 -
[306]
3.6m units at 100k pu or lower. Obviously still a bit of tech out there, like I thought. It'll be interesting to see if that 1m units order is there to stay or just to push the lemmings down to 85k pu again for some cheap tech.
My guess is 90-95 for a month while we clear this latest glut. I also think that there are some serious players holding for 120+, I'll be even more convinced if that 1m units disappears before the price reaches it.
I'm still not sure about the long term stable price, but optimal mid term sell will probably be around 115k pu because I think it will crash hard from huge stockpiles as it noses 120k pu.
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