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Sol Fallstaff
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Posted - 2010.11.06 16:15:00 -
[1]
Was thinking of investing some isk into these as their current price seem to be fairly low considering their PI level, but I realise that prices wont rise until the huge npc stock piles start to deplete.
Does anyone have any idea how much guidance systems were seeded and any estimate as to how long before the stocks get used up. I'm guessing years but not sure.
cheers
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.11.06 17:23:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Akita T on 06/11/2010 17:27:35
You're not asking the right question. The right question is NOT how many were seeded, but how many were PURCHASED massively just before the patch. And the answer to that lies in the still-visible in-game market history. It's a pretty damn easily noticeable thing on the graphs/tables.
As to the second thing, no, the stockpiles DO NOT need to get exhausted before prices spike to near or above PI-parity. Only the stockpiles in the possession of IMPATIENT people need to be exhausted before that happens. The price could reach PI-parity equilibrium long before the already purchased stocks are gone. _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Taxesarebad
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Posted - 2010.11.06 20:37:00 -
[3]
you missed the guidance system blitz, they were around 50k which was basicly the peek, now down to 2-4k, unless your hoping they rise again, but from what i see its not by much
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Sol Fallstaff
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Posted - 2010.11.06 22:34:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Taxesarebad you missed the guidance system blitz, they were around 50k which was basicly the peek, now down to 2-4k, unless your hoping they rise again, but from what i see its not by much
Dunno where you get the peak at 50k the highest I seen it go was around 12 - 14k and with regards to it going up in price its bound to when the stocks run out, as I said its just a question of how long one is prepared to wait to see a return.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.06 22:51:00 -
[5]
Someone did a region by region count in a thread a while back and the number was something like 200mil units iirc.
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Sol Fallstaff
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Posted - 2010.11.06 23:36:00 -
[6]
All I need to work out now is how much of em is consumed on a daily basis in the game and I'll have an idea how many years before the price reaches a more realistic level
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Kanatta Jing
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Posted - 2010.11.07 00:27:00 -
[7]
So... 6 Guidance systems makes one RCU, It takes 13 RCU to make an SBU...
So 200,000,000 / 6 / 13 = 2,564,102 and a half SBU's.
So, ya they could be depleted after just one day of heavy fighting.
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Una Achura
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Posted - 2010.11.07 13:23:00 -
[8]
Don't forget T2-drones.
Those 200 million GS can supply the forge with T2 drones for about 9 years.
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Dan Grobag
Caldari French Empire Squad
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Posted - 2010.11.07 13:38:00 -
[9]
I think planetary vehicles will go up before those.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.07 13:43:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Dan Grobag I think planetary vehicles will go up before those.
They're up 10% since the thread started
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Icanti
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Posted - 2010.11.07 14:28:00 -
[11]
Linkage
Pre-PI, Consumption was estimated to be between 15m-20m per month, in the above thread.
So 200m should be eaten through in about ..... 8 months? :)
However, they are still being dropped from NPC's as far as I know.
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Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
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Posted - 2010.11.07 16:03:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Icanti
However, they are still being dropped from NPC's as far as I know.
In vast quantities.
Patri
I'll Roshambo You For That Titan! |
JitaPriceChecker2
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Posted - 2010.11.07 16:23:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Patri Andari
Originally by: Icanti
However, they are still being dropped from NPC's as far as I know.
In vast quantities.
Indeed
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Zima Dark
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Posted - 2010.11.07 19:53:00 -
[14]
Right now, it costs 33k to build a single guidance system using jita buy orders for mats, and not including any profit on top of that. Using sell orders and with some profit, say 5%, that figure goes up to 38.8k, a more realistic figure. So, if you purchase a bil of guidance systems now at jita sell prices of 5k per unit, you could stand to make a 6.7b in profit in a few month when the price should finally reach the build costs.
Also, guidance systems do drop from missions, but in very small quantaties, something like 10 units.
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Patri Andari
Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
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Posted - 2010.11.07 21:09:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Zima Dark Right now, it costs 33k to build a single guidance system using jita buy orders for mats, and not including any profit on top of that. Using sell orders and with some profit, say 5%, that figure goes up to 38.8k, a more realistic figure. So, if you purchase a bil of guidance systems now at jita sell prices of 5k per unit, you could stand to make a 6.7b in profit in a few month when the price should finally reach the build costs.
Also, guidance systems do drop from missions, but in very small quantaties, something like 10 units.
My reference to vast quantities had more to do with the number of missions where GS drop (which is vast). You are correct that they only drop 10 at a time.
Patri
I'll Roshambo You For That Titan! |
Zima Dark
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Posted - 2010.11.07 21:51:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Patri Andari
My reference to vast quantities had more to do with the number of missions where GS drop (which is vast). You are correct that they only drop 10 at a time.
Right now those 10 GS are worth 50k, and take up 6m3. What drops them in the missions? is it 10 per mission? how easy is it to farm them that way? Because right now it doesn't seem worth the effort to loot them. There are much better things to be done with time.
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
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Posted - 2010.11.07 21:58:00 -
[17]
actually nothing will go up because theres not enough ships being destroyed due to the ****ty lag. knowledge is power |
Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics K162
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Posted - 2010.11.07 23:25:00 -
[18]
They still have a while till they go up imo. A lot of people bought in and have been willing to cash out for 10 to 1 return now rather than 40 to 1 or whatever later on and I don't see that changing for at least a few more months. It is, however, a GREAT long term investment since its essentially guaranteed to go significantly eventually. I already have a decent amount stockpiled, but if I were planning on leaving the game for a year for whatever reason I'd definitely drop another 100B or so into buying up guidance systems.
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Kanatta Jing
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Posted - 2010.11.08 01:00:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Vilgan Mazran I already have a decent amount stockpiled, but if I were planning on leaving the game for a year for whatever reason I'd definitely drop another 100B or so into buying up guidance systems.
But why would you hedge all your profits one a single commodity when you could just buy 100 billion in Towers, knowing that prices have to rise 50% over the next year?
Guidance systems themselves don't have to go anywhere any time soon.
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.11.08 04:43:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Kanatta Jing
Originally by: Vilgan Mazran I already have a decent amount stockpiled, but if I were planning on leaving the game for a year for whatever reason I'd definitely drop another 100B or so into buying up guidance systems.
But why would you hedge all your profits one a single commodity when you could just buy 100 billion in Towers, knowing that prices have to rise 50% over the next year?
Guidance systems themselves don't have to go anywhere any time soon.
Towers don't have to go anywhere. Eventually, guidance systems do.
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Brian Ballsack
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Posted - 2010.11.08 05:57:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Kanatta Jing
But why would you hedge all your profits one a single commodity when you could just buy 100 billion in Towers, knowing that prices have to rise 50% over the next year?
I think i missed something, why are tower prices going to rise ?
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Kanatta Jing
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Posted - 2010.11.08 08:42:00 -
[22]
POS/sovereignty/outpost structures contain portions of all PI material, when any of the stockpiles deplete these final products will rise in build cost and eventually cost.
So investing in towers(not large), labs, arrays and hubs is a low percentage but sure bet over the long haul.
The following is a list of P4's and the percentage of their building materials that is affected by stockpiles.
Broadcast Nodes 50% Integrity Response Drones 44% Nano-Factory 66% Organic Mortar Applicators 44% Recursive Computing Module 33% Self-Harmonizing Power Core 33% Sterile Conduits 66% Wetware Mainframes 44%
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Icanti
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Posted - 2010.11.08 19:12:00 -
[23]
Big spike the past 24 hours, what's going on?
Speculation based on this thread, or something else?
Not seeing any talk anywhere on the forums about how the new PI interface/game mechanics will effect PI supply after go live. Does anyone want to offer an opnion?
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Lightway
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Posted - 2010.11.08 19:45:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Icanti Big spike the past 24 hours, what's going on?
Speculation based on this thread, or something else?
Not seeing any talk anywhere on the forums about how the new PI interface/game mechanics will effect PI supply after go live. Does anyone want to offer an opnion?
Short-term market speculation, people just buy hoping to make a profit, but they forget that only in The Forge alone was sold 140 mil units pre patch. Most of those are not yet on market.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.08 20:39:00 -
[25]
Edited by: RAW23 on 08/11/2010 20:40:58
Originally by: Lightway
Originally by: Icanti Big spike the past 24 hours, what's going on?
Speculation based on this thread, or something else?
Not seeing any talk anywhere on the forums about how the new PI interface/game mechanics will effect PI supply after go live. Does anyone want to offer an opnion?
Short-term market speculation, people just buy hoping to make a profit, but they forget that only in The Forge alone was sold 140 mil units pre patch. Most of those are not yet on market.
Given the volumes purchased, long term speculation seems more plausible (to me at least). Daily sales volumes aren't high enough to support short term offloading of the kind of volumes picked up in recent days. These represent an excllent investment to the patient speculator since a tripling or quadrupling in value over the next year seems entirely plausible. All the more so as stockpiles change hands from the impatient () owners who want to cash in on their 1000% profit over NPC prices, to new owners who bought in at 4-5K. Obviously, some of these new owners will cash out before GS hit their production cost, so we'll see peaks and dips, but short of a nerf by CCP these seem to be one of the best long term investments out there. For those who are willing to wait, at least.
Edit - It's also worth noting that volumes used exceed vlomues sold on a daily basis by a significant amount. As quite a few people posted a while back, a good chunk of the stockpiles belong to producers who are using them rather than selling them, and there usage will not appear in the sales volumes we see on the market.
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Berikath
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Posted - 2010.11.08 21:59:00 -
[26]
Originally by: RAW23 Edited by: RAW23 on 08/11/2010 20:40:58
Originally by: Lightway
Short-term market speculation, people just buy hoping to make a profit, but they forget that only in The Forge alone was sold 140 mil units pre patch. Most of those are not yet on market.
Given the volumes purchased, long term speculation seems more plausible (to me at least). Daily sales volumes aren't high enough to support short term offloading of the kind of volumes picked up in recent days. These represent an excllent investment to the patient speculator since a tripling or quadrupling in value over the next year seems entirely plausible. All the more so as stockpiles change hands from the impatient () owners who want to cash in on their 1000% profit over NPC prices, to new owners who bought in at 4-5K. Obviously, some of these new owners will cash out before GS hit their production cost, so we'll see peaks and dips, but short of a nerf by CCP these seem to be one of the best long term investments out there. For those who are willing to wait, at least.
Edit - It's also worth noting that volumes used exceed vlomues sold on a daily basis by a significant amount. As quite a few people posted a while back, a good chunk of the stockpiles belong to producers who are using them rather than selling them, and there usage will not appear in the sales volumes we see on the market.
I'm not so sure. I would expect that if someone was thinking long-term investment, they would be looking for fairly long-term acquisition, trying to buy over several weeks without bumping up the price much. *** Wish list for PI:
*One-click input routing *Copy product, inputs & outputs in factories *Launchpad upgrades: twice the space, twice the cost, half the hassle! |
RAW23
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Posted - 2010.11.08 22:15:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Berikath
Originally by: RAW23 Edited by: RAW23 on 08/11/2010 20:40:58
Originally by: Lightway
Short-term market speculation, people just buy hoping to make a profit, but they forget that only in The Forge alone was sold 140 mil units pre patch. Most of those are not yet on market.
Given the volumes purchased, long term speculation seems more plausible (to me at least). Daily sales volumes aren't high enough to support short term offloading of the kind of volumes picked up in recent days. These represent an excllent investment to the patient speculator since a tripling or quadrupling in value over the next year seems entirely plausible. All the more so as stockpiles change hands from the impatient () owners who want to cash in on their 1000% profit over NPC prices, to new owners who bought in at 4-5K. Obviously, some of these new owners will cash out before GS hit their production cost, so we'll see peaks and dips, but short of a nerf by CCP these seem to be one of the best long term investments out there. For those who are willing to wait, at least.
Edit - It's also worth noting that volumes used exceed vlomues sold on a daily basis by a significant amount. As quite a few people posted a while back, a good chunk of the stockpiles belong to producers who are using them rather than selling them, and there usage will not appear in the sales volumes we see on the market.
I'm not so sure. I would expect that if someone was thinking long-term investment, they would be looking for fairly long-term acquisition, trying to buy over several weeks without bumping up the price much.
This is certainly true if it is only one person doing the buying. But there seem to have been a number of distinct stages in this upwards move, which suggests, to me, a number of people getting involved. If it was just a short term move, whoever bought up 5 million units is going to be a bit disappointed if he thinks he can offload them quickly. What we might see is some stock dumping onto the buy orders (but that will only amount to a few hundred thousand units) or some impatient speculators putting another batch onto the market at lower prices that they had been holding back to avoid pushing things down below 4k. In any case, a few percent of the total NPC price stocks have changed hands and that will either move prices up or shorten the time that they are kept down.
It'll be interesting, whatever turns out to be the case, to see what will happen and whether a new price point will be established. GS will, over the next year or so, provide a great case study in eve market psychology and motivations.
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Lightway
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Posted - 2010.11.08 22:38:00 -
[28]
If long term speculator were involved, they had time to buy the GS they want until now, considering that for more then 1 month the prices were around 4k isk per piece, at a average trading rate of 200-300k units per day. But in the last 4 days has been traded around 5.75 mil unis of GS. This why I this short term speculaters are involved, not long terms. The guy that posted on this threath and was saying that he will like to invest 100 bil, can be one of the speculators; even the GS sold in the last 4 days are worthing much less then 100 bil, but only by saing that someone will want to invest that amount of money will creat panic and make people to buy on short term dreaming at a big profit and buy doing that they help to increase the prices over short term, while the speculators can easily make 100% profit(buy GS for 35 bil and sell them in few days for 70 bil).
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