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Where will Nocxium end?

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My Postman	Posted - 2010.12.13 13:45:00 - [1] Dear MD regulars, as the title say? 6 months ago i bought a good nocx stock for 80 isk/unit (buy orders). When i checked yesterday, its about 435 isk/unit on sell orders. As i will run out of mining crystals (for selling) soon, i could use my stock for producing and selling them for massive profit. But Nocx is moving heavily up and down (ofc more up), and the crystals sell slowly, but for a steady profit. Will the upward trend hold on? Can anyone tell me WHY there was a rise for 500 % (actually this is my nr. 1 question)?
Tekota legion industries ltd Veni Vidi Vici Alliance	Posted - 2010.12.13 13:53:00 - [2] The why is most likely covered here: http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1429022 Whether it'll go further or not, who knows, note that average has been slipping last few days but I'm getting increasingly bad at predicting prices :)
Tasko Pal Spallated Garniferous Schist	Posted - 2010.12.13 15:31:00 - [3] I would have disposed of the nocxium long ago and used the cash for other things. From what you're saying, it sounds to me like you should sell most or all of your nocxium stock. If you're going to make mining crystals anyway, then sure set some nocx aside and do your thing. But if selling mining crystals is a bother or distraction for you, then I suggest getting while the getting is good. I have no idea what nocxium will do in the future, but it's a pretty good increase for you now. I recommend profit taking. If it does go up further, comfort yourself with your solid 5x gain in six months rather than the extra that you could have made.
Berikath	Posted - 2010.12.13 15:43:00 - [4] Originally by: My Postman Will the upward trend hold on? Can anyone tell me WHY there was a rise for 500 % (actually this is my nr. 1 question)? Presumably the 500% jump you're talking about is from the initial price change. This was because mineral supply was tweaked to better reflect demand... namely, Nocx supply dropped.... a lot. There were a couple aggravating factors that I've seen too- namely, the best yields on Nocx are from low-sec ores, which are generally undesirable due to their difficulty in securing a system for mining, and BSAC's choice to buy up a lot (and I mean LOT) of Nocx and only sell it for higher-than-market-prices. Also, a particularly well-timed manipulation attempt for Nocx caused an initial spike... and when it didn't go back down after a week or so, people just seemed to resign themselves to paying whatever the price was for it ATM. *** Wish list for PI: One-click input routing Copy product, inputs & outputs in factories *Launchpad upgrades: twice the space, twice the cost, half the hassle!
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting	Posted - 2010.12.13 16:29:00 - [5] Originally by: Berikath Originally by: My Postman Will the upward trend hold on? Can anyone tell me WHY there was a rise for 500 % (actually this is my nr. 1 question)? Presumably the 500% jump you're talking about is from the initial price change. This was because mineral supply was tweaked to better reflect demand... namely, Nocx supply dropped.... a lot. There were a couple aggravating factors that I've seen too- namely, the best yields on Nocx are from low-sec ores, which are generally undesirable due to their difficulty in securing a system for mining, and BSAC's choice to buy up a lot (and I mean LOT) of Nocx and only sell it for higher-than-market-prices. Also, a particularly well-timed manipulation attempt for Nocx caused an initial spike... and when it didn't go back down after a week or so, people just seemed to resign themselves to paying whatever the price was for it ATM. Markets don't work like that. Both BSAC and the manipulation came in to amplify the effect of a long term price repositioning to the high. The manipulation by itself would not cause a long term repositioning, it was the consequence of it and leveraging on a momentum that built up anyway. - Auditing & consulting When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
Hyveres Caldari Black Nova Corp IT Alliance	Posted - 2010.12.13 17:12:00 - [6] Well the recent war in the kavela expanse might have disrupted some of the logistics related with transporting minerals from the drone regions to empire. Which might also affect the price. "Subtlety is a thing for philosophy, not combat. If you're going to kill someone, you might as well kill them a whole lot." - Vulcan Raven, The Last Days Of Foxhound
Berikath	Posted - 2010.12.13 18:09:00 - [7] Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Markets don't work like that. Both BSAC and the manipulation came in to amplify the effect of a long term price repositioning to the high. The manipulation by itself would not cause a long term repositioning, it was the consequence of it and leveraging on a momentum that built up anyway. That's why I said they were aggravating factors. I.E., the root causes would have made it happen eventually, but they amplified the situation making the adjustment happen significantly more quickly and significantly more steeply. *** Wish list for PI: One-click input routing Copy product, inputs & outputs in factories *Launchpad upgrades: twice the space, twice the cost, half the hassle!
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting	Posted - 2010.12.13 19:01:00 - [8] Originally by: Berikath Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Markets don't work like that. Both BSAC and the manipulation came in to amplify the effect of a long term price repositioning to the high. The manipulation by itself would not cause a long term repositioning, it was the consequence of it and leveraging on a momentum that built up anyway. That's why I said they were aggravating factors. I.E., the root causes would have made it happen eventually, but they amplified the situation making the adjustment happen significantly more quickly and significantly more steeply. Aggravating factors? It's a free market, they are significant income opportunities waiting to be catched. - Auditing & consulting When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
Berikath	Posted - 2010.12.13 19:24:00 - [9] Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Aggravating factors? It's a free market, they are significant income opportunities waiting to be catched. Wut? I'll be honest, I can't tell if you're trolling me or simply not understanding what I have said. There were factors which amplified the magnitude of the change by both depleting stockpiles (by a single actor acquiring significant portions of the available stockpiles and being conservative about releasing them) and creating a bump in demand (panic buying due to manipulation attempt). While the adjustment would have happened without these factors, they (IMHO) made the adjustment happen sooner and more over a shorter period of time than if they had not been in play. *** Wish list for PI: One-click input routing Copy product, inputs & outputs in factories *Launchpad upgrades: twice the space, twice the cost, half the hassle!
Tamarana Minmatar Mining Division	Posted - 2010.12.14 01:56:00 - [10] Nocxium will continue to raise until a new equilibrium will be reached. Give the lower drop rate of loot, the prices of Mex, Iso and Nocx must readjust. Mex and Iso have already adjusted (more mining in high sec). Nocxium can not be mined in high sec in quantities large enough. So it must come from some other place. Or the quantity of loot grow (more missions) or Nocxium must be mined. Given people will not mine it in low sec, this will leave only 0.0 and WH. But there people mine ABC, because it is more profitable. So will see the price of Nocxium to grow until it will become more profitable to mine ore high on Nocxium than one of the ABC ores.

rain9441 Big Head Want Dolly	Posted - 2010.12.14 02:10:00 - [11] Originally by: Tamarana So will see the price of Nocxium to grow until it will become more profitable to mine ore high on Nocxium than one of the ABC ores. Which means is at or around 800 per IIRC from another thread. Sounds about right. But seeing as how low sec is many times more dangerous to mine in than 0.0, I'd say Nocxium could hit as high as 1200!
My Postman	Posted - 2010.12.14 12:41:00 - [12] Thanks everybody for your valid answers. It looks to me that even MD regulars don¦t know or even assume where this will lead to. I¦ll spend a little bit on it for the crystals i can sell in two month time, and keep the rest at least for one month (or see a nosedive and cry a bit). Btw: There are ppl selling crystals for less than reprocessing price would be. No big margins. If i would¦nt be too lazy to go 8 jumps i would buy them. Why does someone do that? As far as i know they don¦t "drop" from rats/missions? Do i see the MIMAF (minerals i mine are free) bunch?
Rasz Lin Caldari Caldari Provisions	Posted - 2010.12.14 14:25:00 - [13] Originally by: Berikath ... and when it didn't go back down after a week or so, people just seemed to resign themselves to paying whatever the price was for it ATM. Thats me right there. I had a small stockpile (1m units) that I was margin trading in Jita, but when I saw the spike I just moved it to my manufacturing system and stopped touching Nocx completely. I refuse to trade stuff that can go puff overnight (at least since Y-T8).
Berikath	Posted - 2010.12.14 15:24:00 - [14] Originally by: rain9441 Originally by: Tamarana So will see the price of Nocxium to grow until it will become more profitable to mine ore high on Nocxium than one of the ABC ores. Which means is at or around 800 per IIRC from another thread. Sounds about right. But seeing as how low sec is many times more dangerous to mine in than 0.0, I'd say Nocxium could hit as high as 1200! ...... .................................... Quote: until it will become more profitable to mine ore high on Nocxium than one of the ABC ores You start finding low-sec ores in low-sec. However, they are ALSO found in null sec! Once they're more valuable than ABC, 0.0 miners will start mining them. No need to ever go into low sec for them. Was that just being stupid, or were you trying to pump up nocx prices even more? I can sympathize with being stupid; I will sometimes say something that makes perfect sense at the time then go "wait- what did I just say?!" *** Wish list for PI: One-click input routing Copy product, inputs & outputs in factories *Launchpad upgrades: twice the space, twice the cost, half the hassle!
Brian Ballsack	Posted - 2010.12.14 15:42:00 - [15] Originally by: Berikath Once they're more valuable than ABC, 0.0 miners will start mining them. People mine in 0.0 ??? I think around 1000 is going to be the eventual price.
Tasko Pal Spallated Garniferous Schist	Posted - 2010.12.14 15:52:00 - [16] Originally by: My Postman Btw: There are ppl selling crystals for less than reprocessing price would be. No big margins. If i would¦nt be too lazy to go 8 jumps i would buy them. Why does someone do that? As far as i know they don¦t "drop" from rats/missions? Do i see the MIMAF (minerals i mine are free) bunch? There's one mission that drops t1 mining crystals. I don't recall what it is or what level it is.
Berikath	Posted - 2010.12.14 15:56:00 - [17] Originally by: Brian Ballsack Originally by: Berikath Once they're more valuable than ABC, 0.0 miners will start mining them. People mine in 0.0 ??? I think around 1000 is going to be the eventual price. ... of course people mine in 0.0. It may not be the most popular activity, but you know that guy with 6 accounts? 5 of them can fly hulks and 1 is an Orca pilot. When he gets bored and starts watching TV, he mines at the same time. *** Wish list for PI: One-click input routing Copy product, inputs & outputs in factories *Launchpad upgrades: twice the space, twice the cost, half the hassle!
Block Ukx Forge Laboratories	Posted - 2010.12.14 17:48:00 - [18] There are good indications that Nocxium is heading to 600-630 ISK per unit. Breaking 650 ISK mark will take a bit of time. BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk
rain9441 Big Head Want Dolly	Posted - 2010.12.14 18:36:00 - [19] Originally by: Berikath Was that just being stupid, or were you trying to pump up nocx prices even more? I can sympathize with being stupid; I will sometimes say something that makes perfect sense at the time then go "wait- what did I just say?!" I'll take "wait- what did I just say?!" for 500. 800 is the word.
Minerva Vulcan Caldari Ctrl Alt Elites	Posted - 2010.12.14 20:11:00 - [20] To the moon, baby! To the moon.

Batack Gallente	Posted - 2010.12.14 21:20:00 - [21] The only reason nocx is heading up is people playing the market. If people left the market to find it's own level it would drop back to a much nicer 180-200 isk pu. Hopefully this 500 isk pu is unsustainable and the price will drop back to around 200 where it should be.
Tasko Pal Spallated Garniferous Schist	Posted - 2010.12.14 21:35:00 - [22] Edited by: Tasko Pal on 14/12/2010 21:38:00 Originally by: rain9441 Originally by: Berikath Was that just being stupid, or were you trying to pump up nocx prices even more? I can sympathize with being stupid; I will sometimes say something that makes perfect sense at the time then go "wait- what did I just say?!" I'll take "wait- what did I just say?!" for 500. 800 is the word. I'm going with Block over Rain. If none of the other minerals changes in price, then at 800, jaspet and hermophite will be roughly comparable to crokite. That's useful as a first order cap. However it is very likely that the other minerals will decline as nocx climbs in price. That will lower the value of ABC ores somewhat relative to the above low sec ores. I would not expect nocx to reach 800. Added: Originally by: Batack The only reason nocx is heading up is people playing the market. If people left the market to find it's own level it would drop back to a much nicer 180-200 isk pu. Hopefully this 500 isk pu is unsustainable and the price will drop back to around 200 where it should be. If there's a huge market deviation, then you should be making money hand over fist. Crush these market players while enjoying the fruits of your victory!
Block Ukx Forge Laboratories	Posted - 2010.12.15 00:09:00 - [23] Originally by: Tasko Pal I'm going with Block over Rain. I didn't imply that 800 ISK was not possible. For instance, due to the Reserve's low levels of Nocxium, our remaining "Reserve Stock" is on the market at 795-800 ISK. So we do expect a peak in the 800 IKS range. BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk
Patri Andari Caldari Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer	Posted - 2010.12.15 01:02:00 - [24] Alas, Pax Amarria is you cap! Patri I'll Roshambo You For That Titan!
Amarr Citizen 155 Nordar Innovations.	Posted - 2010.12.15 01:25:00 - [25] Noc will go where I tell it to go, everyone knows that.
Murev Vorchilde Caldari End Game.	Posted - 2010.12.15 08:04:00 - [26] nocx is my nightmare :-( bout 2 years ago i bought huge at like 200 pu hoping for long term recovery, got fed up when it ended up bellow 100 sold up then this happened you win some you lose some - How Id Fix Secret world of pensioners
My Postman	Posted - 2010.12.15 10:12:00 - [27] Originally by: Berikath Edited by: Berikath on 14/12/2010 15:58:21 Originally by: Brian Ballsack Originally by: Berikath Once they're more valuable than ABC, 0.0 miners will start mining them. People mine in 0.0 ??? I think around 1000 is going to be the eventual price. ... of course people mine in 0.0. It may not be the most popular activity, but you know that guy with 6 accounts? 5 of them can fly hulks and 1 is an Orca pilot. When he gets bored and starts watching TV, he mines at the same time. edit Originally by: Tasko Pal Originally by: My Postman Btw: There are ppl selling crystals for less than reprocessing price would be. No big margins. If i would¦nt be too lazy to go 8 jumps i would buy them. Why does someone do that? As far as i know they don¦t "drop" from rats/missions? Do i see the MIMAF (minerals i mine are free) bunch? There's one mission that drops t1 mining crystals. I don't recall what it is or what level it is. Are they selling for less than production cost before Nocx spiked? It might be a case of someone making a bunch of crystals, throwing them up on the market, and leaving them there for a month or two. Checked yesterday, there are Plagio crystal I up for 38.000/u and reprocessing (with not perfect skills will give me 40k/u calculated with 435 isk/unit nocx. It looks that they are from production (stock 100 and one stock is 500+ something). Anyway too lazy to pick them up, as i said before. Again thanks for all the answers.


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