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Liberty Eternal
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Posted - 2010.12.19 06:43:00 -
[1]
Morning all!
I was reading a history book about the American air force campaign against Germany in World War two, and it gave me an idea for rattling the Technetium monopoly
The American idea was that by destroying a few key markets with the air force, the entire German economy would collapse.
I looked at the Technetium production chain and realised that Technetium is useless on its own. It needs to be combined with other materials to be useful - see here
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/Tech_2_component_production
So, the theory is that by destroying one of these feeder markets [ie buying up all the market until there is no stock] then technetium will eventually have to adjust downwards in price, as value is re-allocated to pay for the higher prices of these feeder markets.
These markets are
Platinum Platinum Technite
Then;
Carbon Polymers
Which itself requires;
hydrocarbons silicates
Anyway, the only market I could afford to buy was hydrocarbons.
Please go and attack the others. It's insane, but it will at least get the Technetium monopoly possibly quite upset
Maybe a downward panic will follow?
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Strrog
Caldari Zero Excavations
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Posted - 2010.12.19 06:49:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Strrog on 19/12/2010 06:50:16 So ermm lol what you wona bomb in particular and why ?
PS i might break my keyboard trying to type those chmistry things XD
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Liberty Eternal
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Posted - 2010.12.19 06:58:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Liberty Eternal on 19/12/2010 07:04:19 Edited by: Liberty Eternal on 19/12/2010 06:59:39
Originally by: Strrog Edited by: Strrog on 19/12/2010 06:50:16 So ermm lol what you wona bomb in particular and why ?
PS i might break my keyboard trying to type those chmistry things XD
lol Knew we could count on the Russians Carbon polymers is the next logical step to attack, because it is the next cheapest - but it may still cost a few billion. However, with the price of hydrocarbons going up, maybe carbon polymers will be a good market to attack?
Or you can try and help me keep up the buy price of hydrocarbons up if you like.
Keep in mind that this is mainly for fun and may not make much/any profit.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.12.19 07:05:00 -
[4]
/emote mild stare of disbelief Carbon Polymers ? Really ? That's your grand idea ? Do you have any idea just how insanely difficult (not even talking about financially ruinous) it would be to manipulate THAT one upwards high enough and long enough to even REGISTER ? You're talking about a product where most of its value comes from reacting and next to no value comes from what goes in it. You would have more success manipulating POS fuel prices instead to achieve a similar goal, and even that is nearly completely pointless. Platinum Technite, that one you'd need to CRASH, not jack up. If you jack that one up, the only effect would be more expensive Technetium. Platinum itself would be the only moon mineral where artificially increasing its price MIGHT have some effect in lowering Technetium prices, but by doing so, you'll end up with a huge supply of Platinum nobody will want to buy at anywhere near the price you purchased it for (otherwise you won't be able to move the price of Platinum upwards in any meaningful, non-transient way) that even if you do manage to lower Technetium quite a bit while still somehow miraculously being able to stock it up, you still won't recoup your costs.
This is either the most doomed-from-start idea or a pretty weak attempt of manipulating something in some direction, which is also quite doomed-before-starting in itself.
/emote scoffs. Meh. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Liberty Eternal
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Posted - 2010.12.19 07:14:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 19/12/2010 07:11:55
/emote mild stare of disbelief Carbon Polymers ? Really ? That's your grand idea ?
Do you have any idea just how insanely difficult (not even talking about financially ruinous) it would be to manipulate THAT one upwards high enough and long enough to even REGISTER ? You're talking about a product where most of its value comes from reacting and next to no value comes from what goes in it. You would have more success manipulating POS fuel prices instead to achieve a similar goal, and even that is nearly completely pointless. Platinum Technite, that one you'd need to CRASH, not jack up. If you jack that one up, the only effect would be more expensive Technetium. Platinum itself would be the only moon mineral where artificially increasing its price MIGHT have some effect in lowering Technetium prices fast, but by doing so, you'll end up with a huge supply of Platinum nobody will want to buy at anywhere near the price you purchased it for (otherwise you won't be able to move the price of Platinum upwards in any meaningful, non-transient way) that even if you do manage to lower Technetium quite a bit while still somehow miraculously being able to stock it up, you still won't recoup your costs.
This is either the most doomed-from-start idea or a pretty weak attempt of manipulating something in some direction, which is also quite doomed-before-starting in itself. /emote scoffs. Meh.
In fact, you know what you would have MOST success manipulating ? NEODYMIUM. That's the second rarest moon material right now, and the perfect candidate to naturally "suck the price out" of Technetium. But it would be a very long-term manipulation, not a fast one, like for Platinum. And equally unlikely to yield profits in the long run.
P.S. Of course, if only short-term manipulation is your goal, to pump-and-dump something... well... it doesn't really matter WHAT you pump-and-dump. Or, whatever, poop-and-scoop (yuck@term). Either way, you won't force Technetium price long enough nor down enough to matter.
Manipulating prices up? To be honest, I was thinking about just destroying it all.
I'm glad to see you're not worried though Akita
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2010.12.19 08:33:00 -
[6]
I don't get it. You want to lower prices by increasing demand? Please care to elaborate.
Trying to raise low end moon stuff is ... difficult. To say the least. Best bet there is to increase pos fuel (PI stuff hint, hint) but you need also quite some money there.
Anyway, good luck! Always good to see someone having some idea and then trying to verify/falsify it on the market by doing stuff and not just talking hot air. |
RAW23
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Posted - 2010.12.19 08:35:00 -
[7]
Wht makes you think that monopoly/manipulation is keeping the price of tech UP. Most of the attempts to force market behaviour I have seen recently have been trying to force the price downwards, not up, and some have done very well. If you want to attack manipulators, try those guys .
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Steve Celeste
Overdogs
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Posted - 2010.12.19 08:42:00 -
[8]
You should get a different history book.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.12.19 08:42:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Gnulpie I don't get it. You want to lower prices by increasing demand? Please care to elaborate.
He wants to artificially increase price of some of the more common materials, hoping that inertia on price of some of the components higher up the chain would cause a feedback that would lower the price of the more rare materials. Needless to say, it's at best wishful thinking, since in most cases, the product higher up the chain simply increases in price in that case, because the greatest inertia lies in the reacting business, where most of the time lag resides. I'm not saying it's impossible for any of that too happen, just that it's not bloody likely to happen in any significant fashion. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Liberty Eternal
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Posted - 2010.12.19 09:03:00 -
[10]
Edited by: Liberty Eternal on 19/12/2010 09:03:54 Not quite - I am going to destroy it. Hydrocarbons is now effectively a war target. Where before there was a hydrocarbons market, there will soon be a large gap.
Then we will see what happens. And people can review my operation over time, and consider attacking silicates and carbon polymers.
This will force technetium manufacturers to bid up the price of these markets if they wish to stay producing. Thus, like it or not, there will have to be a diversion of capital from technetium to other markets.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.12.19 09:10:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Liberty Eternal Not quite - I am going to destroy it.
Good luck with that _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Strrog
Caldari Zero Excavations
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Posted - 2010.12.19 09:26:00 -
[12]
You know with your *select target* enthusiasm Pentagon might hire you for the skill set XD
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Companion Qube
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Posted - 2010.12.19 10:24:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Strrog You know with your *select target* enthusiasm Pentagon might hire you for the skill set XD
The pentagon hires people who get the job done, regardless of utility or morals.
With his skill set I'm betting a conservative think-tank would pick him up to synthesize new public policy. It would be an improvement.
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Lederstrumpf
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Posted - 2010.12.19 10:40:00 -
[14]
Edited by: Lederstrumpf on 19/12/2010 10:42:12
Originally by: Liberty Eternal I was reading a history book about the American air force campaign against Germany in World War two, and it gave me an idea for rattling the Technetium monopoly
The American idea was that by destroying a few key markets with the air force, the entire German economy would collapse.
I don't think you'll succeed, for the following reason:
The production in WW2 had serious sinks. Produced stuff got wasted like on the spot. Without much freedom whether they wanted to have it wasted or not, as it was a war scenario and they had to have stuff wasted to survive. So the prerequisite in WW2 to have this work out was that producer and consumer were the same - N a z i Germany- and the consumer side was forced to act as a giant sink, too.
So where are those enforced sinks in EVE ? I do not see them for now. How do you plan to force speculators to sell Technetium? There's no deadline for them like "if we don't do this until day D, we've lost the war!", no?
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Xearal
Minmatar SOL Industries Black Thorne Alliance
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Posted - 2010.12.19 11:07:00 -
[15]
I think you'd have more success in annoying the technetium people by going into their space and reinforcing all their technetium moon mines.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.12.19 11:15:00 -
[16]
On a side note, it's highly debatable as to whether the tactic you describe actually had any real effect in shortening the war. Germany was not defeated due to its economy collapsing (nor indeed was Japan) and one of the effects of the Allied bombing campaigns was to demonstrate just how flexible economies are and how quickly they are able to correct themselves and compensate for difficulties. It has been argued by a number of historians that it was only with the air offensives of 1945 that the Allied plan started to have any significant effect on the German economy but given that we have to extrapolate these results past the actual end of the war if we want to build a model of success any claims of the real usefulness of this tactic must remain speculative. The theory seems pretty sound, of course, but the practicality of implementing it is questionable.
On the subject of destroying technetium prices: u mad? Or don't you think this is a genuine bottleneck?
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Banker Lucu
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Posted - 2010.12.19 11:42:00 -
[17]
Quote:
[Source: EVEWalletAware]
I used this program until my anti-virus found that it had a trojan/keylogger and was looking for my eve pw
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Chock'litChipJuice
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Posted - 2010.12.19 11:55:00 -
[18]
So is this some sort of meta pump-and-dump or just a bad idea?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but any major operation worth its salt will react its tech goo. It follows that these operations will pursue vertical integration of their reaction chains both for ease of logistics (JF runs cost money and entail significant risk) and because that lag time should make for a good hedge against market instability by setting a minimum price based on infrastructure and logistics costs very early on in the production process.
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Cyaxares II
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Posted - 2010.12.19 13:21:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Banker Lucu
Quote:
[Source: EVEWalletAware]
I used this program until my anti-virus found that it had a trojan/keylogger and was looking for my eve pw
[citation needed]
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Corcyrus Endymion
Caldari Excessum Corporation Excessum Gaming
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Posted - 2010.12.19 14:04:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Cyaxares II
Originally by: Banker Lucu
Quote:
[Source: EVEWalletAware]
I used this program until my anti-virus found that it had a trojan/keylogger and was looking for my eve pw
[citation needed]
[Proof needed]
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Keta Fraal
Nul and Booleans
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Posted - 2010.12.19 18:30:00 -
[21]
Any prolonged campaign needs an objective or the efforts are lost in oblivion.
I've been curious about how to break the tech machines for a while. I think that your economic strategy requires other efforts in tandem: along the lines of material damages to hauling and perhaps guerrilla sieges at separate manufacturing points.
The only results to be had would require a joint effort by trade aggression, small scale piracy to product hauling, and simultaneous large scale war efforts by the 0.0 alliances who would show interest.
It would scatter the targeted alliances' piloted forces, and certainly require an extended campaign lead by a decentralized command structure. -- which is something of a miracle in a game scenario.
I for one would gladly redirect my activities to join the fight, but to co-ordinate this requires more than I can offer. --------------------------------------- Completely ignore any whining that is not toilet orientated. |
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
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Posted - 2010.12.19 18:49:00 -
[22]
You also have to choke up the downstream. For example, start by surreptitiously buying up tech end products and then dump just prior to your buy up of plat and other parts. It'll amplify the effects of the cost run up in other ingredients since the overall price of the moon materials is driven by end product prices. You stand to make back your initial investment after the tech lords are thrashed by gyrating markets.
Don't listen to Akita T. She's notorious for giving bad, self-serving advice on manipulation attempts and no doubt protecting her huge tech stash. The MD forums are littered with the wrecks of traders and corporations who paid for the folly of listening to her advice.
You are by no means trying to stop the tide and wasting billions of isk or more in the process. Go all in. Fortune favors the bold!
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.12.19 19:16:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Tasko Pal Don't listen to Akita T. She's notorious for giving bad, self-serving advice on manipulation attempts and no doubt protecting her huge tech stash. The MD forums are littered with the wrecks of traders and corporations who paid for the folly of listening to her advice.
You mean, it's littered with those that read my advice wrong, failed to heed any of the explicit warnings, got on the bandwagon too late and so on and so forth ? Because those that followed my advice to the letter in a timely fashion and paid attention to all the details given are actually rolling in ISK. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Hax Zoidberg
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Posted - 2010.12.19 19:47:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Liberty Eternal I was reading a history book about the American air force campaign against Germany in World War two, and it gave me an idea for rattling the Technetium monopoly
The American idea was that by destroying a few key markets with the air force, the entire German economy would collapse.
That plan was a miserable failure, just like this one will be. There's a reason why the Allies switched to firebombing cities. In fact, the cost of mounting the strategic bombing campaign was far higher then the damage done to the German economy plus the cost of manufacturing German fighters. But then again, the Allies could afford to be very wasteful.
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Corcyrus Endymion
Caldari Excessum Corporation Excessum Gaming
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Posted - 2010.12.19 20:09:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Tasko Pal Don't listen to Akita T. She's notorious for giving bad, self-serving advice on manipulation attempts and no doubt protecting her huge tech stash. The MD forums are littered with the wrecks of traders and corporations who paid for the folly of listening to her advice.
You mean, it's littered with those that read my advice wrong, failed to heed any of the explicit warnings, got on the bandwagon too late and so on and so forth ? Because those that followed my advice to the letter in a timely fashion and paid attention to all the details given are actually rolling in ISK.
He just *might* have been sarcastic.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2010.12.19 20:30:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Keta Fraal Any prolonged campaign needs an objective or the efforts are lost in oblivion.
I've been curious about how to break the tech machines for a while. I think that your economic strategy requires other efforts in tandem: along the lines of material damages to hauling and perhaps guerrilla sieges at separate manufacturing points.
The only results to be had would require a joint effort by trade aggression, small scale piracy to product hauling, and simultaneous large scale war efforts by the 0.0 alliances who would show interest.
It would scatter the targeted alliances' piloted forces, and certainly require an extended campaign lead by a decentralized command structure. -- which is something of a miracle in a game scenario.
I for one would gladly redirect my activities to join the fight, but to co-ordinate this requires more than I can offer.
This advice, along with every other piece of advice and all the ideas you have suggested, will raise the price of tech. The only way to lower it's price is to decrease demand or increase supply. Now unless you are a GM that can spawn tech then I assume you can't increase supply. If you have a massive stash you can dump it on the market and ruin the price - temporarily. Eventually your tech will be bought, you will be broke, and the market will raise in price again.
To decrease demand you have to make the end products financially unacceptable, by reducing their price .. again .. the same problem applies. You will have to increase supply to lower price, or ruin yourself by dumping your stock at a **** price.
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Ave Volta
Perkone
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Posted - 2010.12.19 20:44:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Liberty Eternal Edited by: Liberty Eternal on 19/12/2010 09:03:54 Not quite - I am going to destroy it. Hydrocarbons is now effectively a war target. Where before there was a hydrocarbons market, there will soon be a large gap.
I think you're just going to end up destroying your wallet instead.
--------------------------------
chown -R us:us /yourbase |
Keta Fraal
Nul and Booleans
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Posted - 2010.12.19 21:38:00 -
[28]
I'm sorry.
I was thinking along the lines of:
Price of non-bottleneck mats go up.
Price of Tech goes up as well from harassing activities.
T2 Production goes down.
Monopolizing alliances are engaged on many fronts to disrupt their hold on the moons; beginning with those in low sec systems. Their pilots move to defend their assets and their forces are are no longer concentrated in sov defense.
Competing alliances move against moon-holding alliances and let the chaos ensue.
I would have thought that would present more of a scaled effect on what the OP was hoping to achieve in terms of his "idea for rattling the Technetium monopoly". Not necessarily lowering the price of tech as an objective.
--------------------------------------- Completely ignore any whining that is not toilet orientated. |
Kei Darker
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Posted - 2010.12.19 21:55:00 -
[29]
I wish I had a large stock of the items you were buying up.... to put on the market and sell to you overpriced. :)
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.12.20 03:16:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Corcyrus Endymion He just *might* have been sarcastic.
Oh... _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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