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YariLei
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Posted - 2011.01.10 06:50:00 -
[1]
For some reason, after updating to Incursion, I have started failing every single invention job I make (trying to do a basic frigate T2 invention). Previously I could get a success rate of approximately 40-50% with invention skills at level 4 and no decryptors. Now I've raised the skills to level 5 and updated to incursion and so far every job comes out with nothing of value. Do I really have to invest to expensive decryptors which cost about as much as the end product or am I just extremely unlucky? Anyone experiencing the same?
It seems such a waste to see all my time collecting datacores just being wasted in seconds, especially if previously I had no problems with lower skill levels...
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Steve Thomas
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.01.10 07:32:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Steve Thomas on 10/01/2011 07:31:57 Welcome to the new Improved T2 lotto. (bascialy its the same thing its always been, your just going to run into streaks like that thanks to the way the Random number generator works)
the only way to realy deal with the problem is to plan to throw large numbers of Invention runs at the slot.
have fun!
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Nikolai Kondratiev
Sphere Design Inc.
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Posted - 2011.01.10 08:51:00 -
[3]
There are always good and bad streaks in anything chance-related. But on the long term it always comes close to your real chance %.
When I check my corp's invention stats, the success rate over the last 7/30 days is always around 49-50% (for most invention without decryptors @ ~48% chance + a few items invented with decryptors that increase invention chance) while daily success rate can sometimes go as low as 30-40% on bad days or as high as 60-70% on good days _ Ore Table | PI Profits |
YariLei
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Posted - 2011.01.10 08:56:00 -
[4]
Great, thanks a lot! I was wondering if they just made it super-hard to invent, but I suppose I'll just have to keep on putting in maximum amount of jobs I can (currently 5) and try to tweak it to a success-streak with a coupel of decryptors then. Thanks!
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AstarothPrime
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Posted - 2011.01.10 10:15:00 -
[5]
Doing batches of 5 inventions at the time I found out that its either almost all fail or almost all hit.
5:0 and 4:1 are regular outcome so I guess random generator functions in batches as well :D
I.
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Greg Huff
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Posted - 2011.01.10 11:15:00 -
[6]
Success or Failure is determined when you start the invention job. As you can only start them one at a time batch size is irrelevant. You're only having a run of bad luck, but before you start using decryptors sharpen your pencils and work some numbers to make sure it's worth the added cost.
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Jovan Geldon
Gallente Lead Farmers Kill It With Fire
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Posted - 2011.01.10 12:21:00 -
[7]
Posting in this week's "ZOMG STEALTH INVENTION NERF" thread.
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Aphrodite Skripalle
Galactic Defence Consortium
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Posted - 2011.01.10 12:24:00 -
[8]
Because of the frustration and because we all know that eve is not bugfree at all it would be very helpful if you will get a more detailed answer why the invention failed. Why not giving the user an answer with some statistic numbers like a percentage or whatever failed or just giving him the calculation of why the job failed ? There is a calculation behind that and it would really make a difference if you know what happens.
Invention of expensive BPC¦s like a marauder can easily cost you hundred of million isk and getting an explanation would be fair.
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Nikolai Kondratiev
Sphere Design Inc.
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Posted - 2011.01.10 12:34:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Nikolai Kondratiev on 10/01/2011 12:36:21 Assuming 50% base invention chance (which isn't too far from the 48.xx% you get with skills at 4 for modules) to make math easier. For a batch of 5 jobs, your chances are - 5 success : 3.125% - 4 success : 15.625% - 3 success : 31.25% - 2 success : 31.25% - 1 success : 15.625% - total failure : 3.125%
so 4 success/fails should be fairly common and full success/fails shouldn't be rare.
Edit for above : I assume server just rolls a random number between 0 and 1 and returns a success if it's <= to your invention chance, so it wouldn't really help to get a "Your invention failed because 0.738293923232 is greater than your invention chance of 0.4826" message. _ Ore Table | PI Profits |
Honey Lovetrap
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Posted - 2011.01.13 18:58:00 -
[10]
Edited by: Honey Lovetrap on 13/01/2011 18:59:10 I believe that CCP programmers or at least person who did program EvE RNG should be banned to ever come near computer EVER again.
12 in a row total failure...
Anyway this topic is enough reason to ask for reimbursement*, and ask that CCP publish RNG code.
*Something that we all should do, not because form of protest, but because things should be changed. And there were rumors that some players have superb above average luck doing anything in game, while others have bellow average "luck."
I also firmly believe that if program is changed by individual it wouldn't be detected for years. So in theory its possible that friends of developers be more "lucky" and not to cause any kind of market devaluation of anything else, others regular players who dont have theirs feet wiggling from developer sitting parts will have lower chances to succeed, to get escalation, good loot...anything that is chance based in EvE.
Now because of that and only for peace of our minds CCP should recheck theirs RNG and release at mechanic of how it calculates chances.
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Lutz Major
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Posted - 2011.01.13 20:23:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Honey Lovetrap Edited by: Honey Lovetrap on 13/01/2011 18:59:10 I believe that CCP programmers or at least person who did program EvE RNG should be banned to ever come near computer EVER again.
12 in a row total failure...
Anyway this topic is enough reason to ask for reimbursement*, and ask that CCP publish RNG code.
*Something that we all should do, not because form of protest, but because things should be changed. And there were rumors that some players have superb above average luck doing anything in game, while others have bellow average "luck."
I also firmly believe that if program is changed by individual it wouldn't be detected for years. So in theory its possible that friends of developers be more "lucky" and not to cause any kind of market devaluation of anything else, others regular players who dont have theirs feet wiggling from developer sitting parts will have lower chances to succeed, to get escalation, good loot...anything that is chance based in EvE.
Now because of that and only for peace of our minds CCP should recheck theirs RNG and release at mechanic of how it calculates chances.
lololololol
I too demand to be in that benefited group! And to make it easier for CCP, here is the code to add: If (player == Lutz Major) Then probability = 1 Else probability = crap End
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Nikolai Kondratiev
Sphere Design Inc.
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Posted - 2011.01.13 21:13:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Honey Lovetrap Edited by: Honey Lovetrap on 13/01/2011 18:59:10 I believe that CCP programmers or at least person who did program EvE RNG should be banned to ever come near computer EVER again.
12 in a row total failure...
In fact you should be asking to ban that person from using computers if 12 failures in a row NEVER happened. _ Ore Table | PI Profits |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.01.13 21:47:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Akita T on 13/01/2011 21:48:22
Originally by: Honey Lovetrap I believe that CCP programmers or at least person who did program EvE RNG should be banned to ever come near computer EVER again. 12 in a row total failure...
You Fail Statistics Forever...
Even with a (relatively high) 50% success chance, there is a 1 in 4,096 chance that a 12-failure streak could happen (precisely the same odds of a 12-success streak happening). Considering the estimated number of invention jobs, that should probably happen to at least one person every few days, if not more often. For lower success rates, it's even more likely.
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Velicitia
Open Designs
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Posted - 2011.01.13 22:27:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Akita T <smart stuff>
and this is why I should stay very far away from whatever it is Akita does in a given day...
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Steve Thomas
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.01.14 01:44:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Velicitia
Originally by: Akita T <smart stuff>
and this is why I should stay very far away from whatever it is Akita does in a given day...
um
you just posted in a forum that Akita posted in.
Need some ducttape remover?
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KaarBaak
Minmatar Sebiestor tribe
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Posted - 2011.01.14 04:38:00 -
[16]
Edited by: KaarBaak on 14/01/2011 04:39:41 Factors which may influence invention success:
- are you delivering jobs at the same time of day when you complete them? - are you delivering them in batches (select all->deliver) or one at a time? - are you starting the jobs all at the same time? - are you getting your datacores from market or your own R&D agents? - are you playing full-screen or windowed? - are you left-handed or right-handed? Trackball or mouse? - do you have AA turned on? - did you install any/all of those mysterious "optional" patches last Autumn? - was your char created on an even date or an odd date? *
Any of the above factors carry equal weight when determining success of invention jobs. [/sarcasm]
KB
*There is a well-known MMO that actually used char creation date/time as a part of it's RNG seed, and after years of player complaints it was changed when it was determined that some avatars were literally "born lucky."
EDIT: added sarcasm tag, just in case. Circumstances rule men; men do not rule circumstances. --Herodotus, Histories
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Honey Lovetrap
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Posted - 2011.01.14 14:00:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 13/01/2011 21:48:22
Originally by: Honey Lovetrap I believe that CCP programmers or at least person who did program EvE RNG should be banned to ever come near computer EVER again. 12 in a row total failure...
You Fail Statistics Forever...
Even with a (relatively high) 50% success chance, there is a 1 in 4,096 chance that a 12-failure streak could happen (precisely the same odds of a 12-success streak happening). Considering the estimated number of invention jobs, that should probably happen to at least one person every few days, if not more often. For lower success rates, it's even more likely.
Oh darling, I never said that there isnt a chance that it can happen.
Statistically its possible that some players will have 90% success even when eve RNG says 25%, and will be more "lucky" on short therm and where is a chance to be lucky in short therm there is also a chance to be more lucky on a long run...its theoretical probability. No matter how tiny it is, probability exists. And its possible that you have effective invention chance equal to 1% after completing 10000 jobs with 50% success rate.
I am saying that those numbers should be balanced.
In another words, EvE RNG should be updated that it have memory of success or failures in the past of each character individually and with those numbers on its mind balance chance of invention process.
Because in theory even with 80% chance, and after 1m jobs you can fail every one of them. So how it is fair?
It is statistical probability to have one group of players having much better effective chance then other group of players. In another words, every failure is result of other player success, and every your success is result of other players failure.
Invention is one big ISK drain implemented for second class of players who joined later to EvE universe, and most of them are annoyance to CCP. If this statement is correct that EvE RNG is fine as it is now.
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Velicitia
Open Designs
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Posted - 2011.01.14 15:22:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Steve Thomas
Originally by: Velicitia
Originally by: Akita T <smart stuff>
and this is why I should stay very far away from whatever it is Akita does in a given day...
um
you just posted in a forum that Akita posted in.
I said *should*... never said that I'm smart enough to do so.
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Berikath
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Posted - 2011.01.14 16:24:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Berikath on 14/01/2011 16:24:38
Originally by: Honey Lovetrap
Oh darling, I never said that there isnt a chance that it can happen.
Statistically its possible that some players will have 90% success even when eve RNG says 25%, and will be more "lucky" on short therm and where is a chance to be lucky in short therm there is also a chance to be more lucky on a long run...its theoretical probability. No matter how tiny it is, probability exists. And its possible that you have effective invention chance equal to 1% after completing 10000 jobs with 50% success rate.
I am saying that those numbers should be balanced.
In another words, EvE RNG should be updated that it have memory of success or failures in the past of each character individually and with those numbers on its mind balance chance of invention process.
Because in theory even with 80% chance, and after 1m jobs you can fail every one of them. So how it is fair?
It is statistical probability to have one group of players having much better effective chance then other group of players. In another words, every failure is result of other player success, and every your success is result of other players failure.
Invention is one big ISK drain implemented for second class of players who joined later to EvE universe, and most of them are annoyance to CCP. If this statement is correct that EvE RNG is fine as it is now.
Here, let me shorten that for you.
Originally by: Honey Lovetrap I don't like being unlucky, so they should change EVE's RNG so it isn't actually a RNG.
Also, "wahh".
*** [ SIG] ***
Wish list for PI:
*One-click input routing *Copy product, inputs & outputs in factories *Launchpad upgrades: twice the space, twice the cost, half the hassle! [ /sig ] |
RaTTuS
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.01.14 16:39:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Honey Lovetrap ...Large W[h]ine ...
let me offer you some cheese ;-
last 300 invention Jobs I've done have resulted in 48% for my 5/5/5 52% for my 5/4/4 68% for my 4/4/4
over the last 3000 it's pretty much as it should be [though the 4/4/4 is slightly higher] now what I thin this means is you should stop @ 4/4/4 and then just end yourself --
Join BIG
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Flios Bror
Amarr Doom Guard
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Posted - 2011.01.14 16:51:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Nikolai Kondratiev Edited by: Nikolai Kondratiev on 10/01/2011 12:36:21 Assuming 50% base invention chance (which isn't too far from the 48.xx% you get with skills at 4 for modules) to make math easier. For a batch of 5 jobs, your chances are - 5 success : 3.125% - 4 success : 15.625% - 3 success : 31.25% - 2 success : 31.25% - 1 success : 15.625% - total failure : 3.125%
This is only the case for uncorrelated die-rolls. It's quite clear by now that the rnd() of Eve produces colored output, so your calculation is incorrect. Because we don't know the color of the noise, we cannot determine what the chances actually are. [None] |
Captain Pompous
Is Right Even When He's Wrong So Deal With It
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Posted - 2011.01.15 10:32:00 -
[22]
Edited by: Captain Pompous on 15/01/2011 10:33:02
Originally by: RaTTuS now what I thin this means is you should stop @ 4/4/4 and then just end yourself
Real nice ---
☻♥ Problem? Therapy sessions ♥☻ |
Nikolai Kondratiev
Sphere Design Inc.
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Posted - 2011.01.15 10:44:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Flios Bror
Originally by: Nikolai Kondratiev Edited by: Nikolai Kondratiev on 10/01/2011 12:36:21 Assuming 50% base invention chance (which isn't too far from the 48.xx% you get with skills at 4 for modules) to make math easier. For a batch of 5 jobs, your chances are - 5 success : 3.125% - 4 success : 15.625% - 3 success : 31.25% - 2 success : 31.25% - 1 success : 15.625% - total failure : 3.125%
This is only the case for uncorrelated die-rolls. It's quite clear by now that the rnd() of Eve produces colored output, so your calculation is incorrect. Because we don't know the color of the noise, we cannot determine what the chances actually are.
Not sure about others (and I'm certainly not going to make that kind of stats on job history to confirm) but the distribution feels totally normal here, lots of 4-6 success out of 10 jobs, 2-3 or 7-8 success are "uncommon" and rarely getting 0-1 or 9-10 success. And the feeling was the same when I was only using 5 slots for invention. _ Ore Table | PI Profits |
Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2011.01.15 17:24:00 -
[24]
To add insult to the whole injury thing.. just recently I did put 10 freighter inventions into the cooker.. 7 JFs came out.. all jobs where started to yield 1run, ML-1, PL-1 prints. Usually the average for this is 3.5 out of 10 to be successful. support Public Idea Tracker | 24hr PLEX |
Lutz Major
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Posted - 2011.01.15 20:43:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Honey Lovetrap Statistically its possible that some players will have 90% success even when eve RNG says 25%, and will be more "lucky" on short therm and where is a chance to be lucky in short therm there is also a chance to be more lucky on a long run...its theoretical probability.
No, it's not. It is correct, that on short term (ie 10 even maybe 20) someone can have a 90% chance (0.977% for 9 out of 10 and 0.018 for 18/20), but on long term (90 out of 100 = 0.00000000000000136554263874631% = IMPOSSIBLE) it is quasi zero.
Originally by: Honey Lovetrap And its possible that you have effective invention chance equal to 1% after completing 10000 jobs with 50% success rate.
Can you please solve the equation (100 over 10000) / 2 ^ 10000 ... that would be the probability. My computer breaks when I try to solve it. Originally by: Honey Lovetrap I am saying that those numbers should be balanced.
They are ... just make 1000+ invention runs and you will have (nearly) balanced results
Originally by: Honey Lovetrap In another words, EvE RNG should be updated that it have memory of success or failures in the past of each character individually and with those numbers on its mind balance chance of invention process.
I'm speachless
Originally by: Honey Lovetrap Because in theory even with 80% chance, and after 1m jobs you can fail every one of them. So how it is fair?
Not in a million years !
Originally by: Honey Lovetrap It is statistical probability to have one group of players having much better effective chance then other group of players.
No it's not. It is your disability to understand probability!
RNG
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Isonik Umarrio
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Posted - 2011.01.15 22:23:00 -
[26]
I document my success rates, and for ammo, before incursion, my success on a 100 bpc invention run would be from 35-52%, my science skills are all at 4 (all 20 physics/engineering yada yada or so), i am using a hyasyoda lab, no special stuff like "test reports."
since incursion, i have done 2 100 bpc runs on ammo and my success is less than 30% on both.
i will post an update in a week once i have done my third 100 run and another personal run of 55 bpc's.
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Kharylien
Gallente Masked Rider Project
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Posted - 2011.01.15 23:59:00 -
[27]
Edited by: Kharylien on 15/01/2011 23:59:43
Originally by: Isonik Umarrio I document my success rates, and for ammo, before incursion, my success on a 100 bpc invention run would be from 35-52%, my science skills are all at 4 (all 20 physics/engineering yada yada or so), i am using a hyasyoda lab, no special stuff like "test reports."
since incursion, i have done 2 100 bpc runs on ammo and my success is less than 30% on both.
i will post an update in a week once i have done my third 100 run and another personal run of 55 bpc's.
For the love of God scroll up and read what Akita T and Lutz Major posted and then learn some statistics or never post again.
Originally by: Flios Bror It's quite clear by now that the rnd() of Eve produces colored output
Proof or STFU.
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Invention Nerf
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Posted - 2011.01.16 07:03:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Isonik Umarrio I document my success rates, and for ammo, before incursion, my success on a 100 bpc invention run would be from 35-52%, my science skills are all at 4 (all 20 physics/engineering yada yada or so), i am using a hyasyoda lab, no special stuff like "test reports."
since incursion, i have done 2 100 bpc runs on ammo and my success is less than 30% on both.
i will post an update in a week once i have done my third 100 run and another personal run of 55 bpc's.
I swear to god, I didn't do anything!
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Greg Huff
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Posted - 2011.01.16 15:06:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Invention Nerf
Originally by: Isonik Umarrio I document my success rates, and for ammo, before incursion, my success on a 100 bpc invention run would be from 35-52%, my science skills are all at 4 (all 20 physics/engineering yada yada or so), i am using a hyasyoda lab, no special stuff like "test reports."
since incursion, i have done 2 100 bpc runs on ammo and my success is less than 30% on both.
i will post an update in a week once i have done my third 100 run and another personal run of 55 bpc's.
I swear to god, I didn't do anything!
Seriously??? You created and alt just so you could post with that name?
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Invention Nerf
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Posted - 2011.01.16 20:01:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Greg Huff
Originally by: Invention Nerf
Originally by: Isonik Umarrio ...
I swear to god, I didn't do anything!
Seriously??? You created and alt just so you could post with that name?
Yes. Funny, isn't it? And my second alt is called Sarcasm!
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