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Zirsa	Posted - 2011.04.01 13:37:00 - [1] Reports are starting to trickle in that bots are being banned en-masse, although only temp banned as of now. However, it looks like bot-detection has been iterated as a first phase. Stock up on isotopes? Even if the bots hang around, if CCP ever does anything this year isotopes should go through the roof? I'd be a bit weary speculating on minerals, just due to the fact that the loss of ratting bots will kill off a good deal of the isk faucet. However, I don't see demand for isotopes dropping anytime soon.
clixoras	Posted - 2011.04.01 13:54:00 - [2] Isotope price has been going up since July last year. Regardless of a 'unholy not so raging' they will go up. Why is the question.
Florestan Bronstein Amarr Taishi Combine	Posted - 2011.04.01 13:54:00 - [3] buy cheap mining characters
Burnharder	Posted - 2011.04.01 13:55:00 - [4] en-masse? Proof? I wouldn't be surprised if they were token gestures aimed at killing the botting threadnought. If mineral prices start to rise, then I'll believe it.
Zirsa	Posted - 2011.04.01 14:02:00 - [5] Originally by: Burnharder en-masse? Proof? I wouldn't be surprised if they were token gestures aimed at killing the botting threadnought. If mineral prices start to rise, then I'll believe it. Just the rumour mill. But I've heard the same thing- multiple times.
Rasz Lin Caldari Uitraan Diversified Holdings Incorporated	Posted - 2011.04.01 14:28:00 - [6] Originally by: Zirsa Reports are starting to trickle in that bots are being banned en-masse, although only temp banned as of now. that was April Fool's Day post, no bans
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2011.04.01 14:29:00 - [7] Originally by: Burnharder en-masse? Proof? Fan Fest-Security It started late last week with a thousand bans. Might take a while to ramp up, but should be a daily occurrence. Initial one day bans are a merely a warning shot. This is all from the video. No idea if the initial focus will be on ratters, miners, or market bots, but isotopes are probably the best pure play. Disclosure: Most of my market assets are in ice and ice products so I am not unbiased.
Gillaboo	Posted - 2011.04.01 17:05:00 - [8] "April Fools" or not, the FANFEST 2011 Security seminar had some serious talk about this. Video of the seminar is available in the usual places. -------------------------------------------------------- This space For Rent.
Zalahar	Posted - 2011.04.01 17:26:00 - [9] I think it remains to be seen if CCP will actually follow through with getting rid of the bots or if this was just lip-service. Much of the economy right now is dependent on botting, a too bold of a move by CCP could endanger the economy far more than letting the bots stay.
Gillaboo	Posted - 2011.04.01 19:31:00 - [10] Originally by: Zalahar Much of the economy right now is dependent on botting, a too bold of a move by CCP could endanger the economy far more than letting the bots stay. Tough call, the argument could either way. BUT I'd say the "bold" move has been made, in the form of hiring IT Security professionals. Bit of waste simply to have them on the payroll otherwise. -------------------------------------------------------- This space For Rent.
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2011.04.01 19:39:00 - [11] Edited by: Claire Voyant on 01/04/2011 19:39:45 Originally by: Zalahar Much of the economy right now is dependent on botting, a too bold of a move by CCP could endanger the economy far more than letting the bots stay. If true, then much of the economy is already broken. I think the video was clear enough that they are going to avoid one-time mass bannings like unholy rage in favor of continual actions so that will temper the effect on the economy as a whole.
Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2011.04.01 21:42:00 - [12] Edited by: Herman Klaus on 01/04/2011 21:42:44 I have to be honest I'm a bit of a contract nerd. I can happily sit there for an afternoon browsing contracts for people making mistakes so I can profit. Lately when mistakes happen they are taking a lot longer to be filled. I always suspected bots where somehow catching them in split seconds but didn't know for sure. The way contracts feel lately there has def been a change. It's like there is a good couple of seconds now to score the contract. Edit: spelling
Jessetto	Posted - 2011.04.01 23:57:00 - [13] Confirmed. I know of multiple characters being hit for 14 day bans as a first offence. Also that some of these bots weren't the 23/7 type, and all were mining bots. I believe if you look at server login numbers from last week to this week, especially around DT you'll see the discrepancy...about 1000. Hold onto your isotopic butts, marketeers!
Breaker77 Gallente Reclamation Industries	Posted - 2011.04.02 00:00:00 - [14] So mining might be slightly profitable again? Proof or STFU!!
Zirsa	Posted - 2011.04.02 00:05:00 - [15] Originally by: Breaker77 So mining might be slightly profitable again? Proof or STFU!! *Ice Mining Maybe.
Breaker77 Gallente Reclamation Industries	Posted - 2011.04.02 00:10:00 - [16] Originally by: Zirsa *Ice Mining Maybe. Mineral mining is profitable Since when?
Zalahar	Posted - 2011.04.02 00:18:00 - [17] Originally by: Breaker77 Originally by: Zirsa Ice Mining Maybe. Mineral mining is profitable Since when? Well, technically its always been profitable*. But if CCP limits the number of bots it might become worth doing in certain forms.
Jessetto	Posted - 2011.04.02 01:53:00 - [18] Originally by: Breaker77 So mining might be slightly profitable again? Proof or STFU!! Do your own research!
Maria Mitsui	Posted - 2011.04.02 02:29:00 - [19] Originally by: clixoras Isotope price has been going up since July last year. Regardless of a 'unholy not so raging' they will go up. Why is the question. You know, it takes less than a minute to load the market and check the 4 isotopes sales history - it's clear than over the last 12 months all of them have stayed pretty much the same - mild fluctuations seem to work on a 3-month cycle, roughly, but these only mean a 1 to 2 percent variation around the average. The only exception is that they all dropped quite sharply about 4 or 5 months ago, and have slowly recovered to their former level. Of course, I am talking Jita, and therefore The Forge. But it would be pretty strange if other regions differed substantially.
Gillaboo	Posted - 2011.04.02 11:07:00 - [20] Originally by: Maria MitsuiOf course, I am talking Jita, and therefore The Forge. But it would be pretty strange if other regions differed substantially.[/quote But did you check for available inventories? Carry on. -------------------------------------------------------- This space For Rent.
Dirk Decibel	Posted - 2011.04.02 11:48:00 - [21] Originally by: Maria Mitsui Originally by: clixoras Isotope price has been going up since July last year. Regardless of a 'unholy not so raging' they will go up. Why is the question. You know, it takes less than a minute to load the market and check the 4 isotopes sales history - it's clear than over the last 12 months all of them have stayed pretty much the same - mild fluctuations seem to work on a 3-month cycle, roughly, but these only mean a 1 to 2 percent variation around the average. Are you looking at the same isotopes as me cuz I see pretty significant price changes over the last 12 months.
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2011.04.02 12:45:00 - [22] Originally by: Maria Mitsui You know, it takes less than a minute to load the market and check the 4 isotopes sales history - it's clear than over the last 12 months all of them have stayed pretty much the same - mild fluctuations seem to work on a 3-month cycle, roughly, but these only mean a 1 to 2 percent variation around the average. I love how a 12 month price graph makes everyone an instant expert. The last 12 months have been about as wild a ride in the isotopes market as I've seen over the past five years. Unholy rage followed by a huge crash then hulkaggeddon.
Atima Minmatar House of Marbles	Posted - 2011.04.02 13:42:00 - [23] I hope everyones buying there isotopes :)
Gaius Clabbacus	Posted - 2011.04.02 14:27:00 - [24] Oxygen isotopes are having a blast in Jita atm.
Atima Minmatar House of Marbles	Posted - 2011.04.02 14:31:00 - [25] Im sitting on some volume of them ;)
Breaker77 Gallente Reclamation Industries	Posted - 2011.04.02 17:35:00 - [26] Originally by: Gaius Clabbacus Oxygen isotopes are having a blast in Jita atm. That will change if when CCP nerfs the Nyx. That is the main reason they are in such huge demand. Seriously, who uses Gallente control towers besides me.
Jessetto	Posted - 2011.04.02 23:18:00 - [27] Originally by: Breaker77 Originally by: Gaius Clabbacus Oxygen isotopes are having a blast in Jita atm. That will change if when CCP nerfs the Nyx. That is the main reason they are in such huge demand. Seriously, who uses Gallente control towers besides me. Lots of Rorquals, Anshar's and Thanatos's out there. Some people think Gallente towers offer a good balance between CPU and powergid too, poor, misguided people.
Zyracon	Posted - 2011.04.03 00:28:00 - [28] Well somebody's buying them up anyways. Up they go.
Tasko Pal Spallated Garniferous Schist	Posted - 2011.04.03 00:47:00 - [29] Gallente towers provide a lot of storage space for reactions. It means you don't need to be as active in order to run a supply chain for t2 materials.
Admiral Valeris	Posted - 2011.04.03 01:45:00 - [30] Any thoughts on strontium clathrates and heavy water? Strontium at least I thought was a very low yield ice product,only mines in tiny amounts?
Breaker77 Gallente Reclamation Industries	Posted - 2011.04.03 02:02:00 - [31] Originally by: Admiral Valeris Strontium at least I thought was a very low yield ice product,only mines in tiny amounts? You get 1 unit of strontium for each block of ice that is found in highsec. The ice in 0.0, and possibly lowsec, has higher yields Glare Crust - 25 Dark Glitter - 50 Gelidus - 75 Krystallos - 100 Also Glare Crust provides 1000 heavy water per unit of ice. Dark Glitter provides 1000 Liquid Ozone and 500 Heavy Water per unit of ice. It is also the highest ISK per m3 for ice as well due to the price of Liquid Ozone. Strontium isn't needed as much as it was before Dominion. Now that 0.0 alliances don't need thousands of POSes to claim sov they just need to maintain POSes on the high value moons and supercap production POSes.
Admiral Valeris	Posted - 2011.04.03 02:36:00 - [32] Oh great thx for that breaker. Well im on the stront train anyways. Im gamblin on it as it is also used in capitals and some manufacturing also, and is a b%$*% to mine hehe. here goes nothin!
Wu Strange	Posted - 2011.04.03 02:49:00 - [33] Originally by: Breaker77 Originally by: Admiral Valeris Strontium at least I thought was a very low yield ice product,only mines in tiny amounts? You get 1 unit of strontium for each block of ice that is found in highsec. The ice in 0.0, and possibly lowsec, has higher yields Glare Crust - 25 Dark Glitter - 50 Gelidus - 75 Krystallos - 100 Also Glare Crust provides 1000 heavy water per unit of ice. Dark Glitter provides 1000 Liquid Ozone and 500 Heavy Water per unit of ice. It is also the highest ISK per m3 for ice as well due to the price of Liquid Ozone. Strontium isn't needed as much as it was before Dominion. Now that 0.0 alliances don't need thousands of POSes to claim sov they just need to maintain POSes on the high value moons and supercap production POSes. You forgot Jumpbridge and cynojammer poses (usually deathstared on a valueless moon). The jumpbridges burn a heck of a lot of LO when things get active and entire 200man fleets jump thru.
Fiat Money The Privy Council Majesta Empire	Posted - 2011.04.03 13:56:00 - [34] LO and HW are mostly mined in 0.0 as a side-product so demand in Jita for 0.0 alliances is negligible. Same for Stront. Topes instead are always needed and bought on a regular basis. Thus I don't bet any ISK on ice products except topes.
Gillaboo	Posted - 2011.04.04 01:27:00 - [35] Seeing lower volumes coming out on the Market data... here we go ! ! ! And fewer ships in the ice fields for a weekend... -------------------------------------------------------- This space For Rent.
Gillaboo	Posted - 2011.04.05 21:59:00 - [36] Lookit those prices rise ! And a few less bots as each day passes... ohhhhhhhhhhh, yeaaaaaaaah. -------------------------------------------------------- This space For Rent.
Admiral Valeris	Posted - 2011.04.06 01:39:00 - [37] LOL hurrah!
Gillaboo	Posted - 2011.04.11 11:32:00 - [38] Anyone see an upper limit on ice/isotopes? Prices still pushing up....
Fiat Money The Privy Council Majesta Empire	Posted - 2011.04.11 18:34:00 - [39] There's no real limit, it's just supply and demand. I remember that more than 12 month ago prices were in the 600 isk/item range. So that's the range I would speculate to imo.
Tasko Pal Volatilis Legion Citex Alliance	Posted - 2011.04.11 19:06:00 - [40] Originally by: Gillaboo Anyone see an upper limit on ice/isotopes? Prices still pushing up.... I think it's capped by missioning income. If you can make more shooting roids than red pluses in high sec, then there will be a big switchover.
Gillaboo	Posted - 2011.04.12 11:28:00 - [41] I strongly agree, and there is alot of ISK sitting around out there -- literally sitting in Wallets -- according to the latest QEN.
Llyandrian Amarr Livestock Science Exchange	Posted - 2011.04.15 08:17:00 - [42] Isotopes are going to hit new highs this week-end. Prices have been rising strongly all week, buy orders are going unfilled, market stocks are being depleted by continued sales and not replaced. The week-end refuelling cycle is about to begin.
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting	Posted - 2011.04.15 08:38:00 - [43] Originally by: Llyandrian Isotopes are going to hit new highs this week-end. Prices have been rising strongly all week, buy orders are going unfilled, market stocks are being depleted by continued sales and not replaced. The week-end refuelling cycle is about to begin. Beware of these feelings driven news and announcements, because they are where money is lost. Auditing \| Research \| 3rd Party \| Collateral Holding \| EvE RL Charity
Gillaboo	Posted - 2011.04.15 11:47:00 - [44] And of false prophets... Caveat Emptor.
Gypsio III Dirty Filthy Perverts	Posted - 2011.04.15 12:46:00 - [45] Or will there be an imminent price crash as botting bans expire and botters dump their humungous isotope stocks at the inflated prices?! That's right, SELL NOW!! Then after the weekend buy the crashed stock as it's going sky high again!!!! Amidoingitrite?!!!
Netheranthem Eve Engineering Finance Eve Engineering	Posted - 2011.04.15 12:51:00 - [46] Originally by: Llyandrian Isotopes are going to hit new highs this week-end. Prices have been rising strongly all week, buy orders are going unfilled, market stocks are being depleted by continued sales and not replaced. The week-end refuelling cycle is about to begin. And I really don't know who's stockpiling
Llyandrian Amarr Livestock Science Exchange	Posted - 2011.04.16 17:27:00 - [47] Despite much scepticism, many prices see over-night rise. Expect more price rises as market stocks are not being replenished at rate they are being depleted.
Sealiah Minmatar Coffee Lovers Brewing Club OMEGA.	Posted - 2011.04.19 07:56:00 - [48] So you mean my billions of isk in nitrogen isotopes will be worth hauling to jtia now? Fun stuff. Nah, I'll just use them for my own poses. isotope price rise -> moon goo price rise -> simple reaction product price rise -> complex reaction product price rise -> t2 mod and ship price rise -> t2 won't stay the "basic fitting" for all ships and marauders won't be the basic mission running ship? I think nothing will change in reality, it's just that some people will spend a bit more on their fav stuff, move along. As soon as the price reaches some reasonable level - more people will take their macks out and mine ice. Espetially that you can almost literally do it everywhere and all day long, as long as you'r awake you can just alt-tab every now and then and put the ice from your miner to an orca... Will look like botting, but in reality it'll just be people who want to have an almost passive income in space :P
Llyandrian Amarr Livestock Science Exchange	Posted - 2011.04.19 09:06:00 - [49] The w/e stock replenishing cycle is over. The first bans will be expiring. The bot-masters will start dumping any stocks into buy orders. The spread will increase and perhaps a small retractment. This trend will be short term. Some bot-masters will continue and get longer bans, some will stop. Therefore the pressure on prices will still be present. The rise in prices will attract player miners back into production, but not at the rate bots are removed therefore this will be a longer term trend. The best market position remains buy and hold.
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting	Posted - 2011.04.19 10:57:00 - [50] Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 19/04/2011 10:58:50 Originally by: Llyandrian The best market position remains buy and hold. The only people who should have bought and hold would have been: - Warren Buffet - Those who like him would have bought during the very long consolidation at 250. Those who bought at 300 are selling part of their position right now and leaving runners for possible upward momentum. The rest are terrible traders who should go back to mining. Edit: You are making people buying near the top of an high, in case you didn't notice / are an ice producer. Auditing \| Research \| 3rd Party \| Collateral Holding \| EvE RL Charity
Gillaboo	Posted - 2011.04.19 11:24:00 - [51] Warren called... he said "buy, buy, buy!"
Wyke Mossari Gallente	Posted - 2011.04.19 11:31:00 - [52] Tilting at windmills, but the best outcome would be for prices to be held down to prevent returning boters from benefiting from higher prices on any stockpiles they still have.
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2011.04.19 16:13:00 - [53] Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha The only people who should have bought and hold would have been: - Warren Buffet - Those who like him would have bought during the very long consolidation at 250. Those who bought at 300 are selling part of their position right now and leaving runners for possible upward momentum. The rest are terrible traders who should go back to mining. Edit: You are making people buying near the top of an high, in case you didn't notice / are an ice producer. Warren Buffet is an investor, not a speculator, so you wouldn't see him trading commodities. BTW, Weren't you selling at 300? Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha I.e. some days ago I noticed this maximum on Isotopes: Linkage The green line is a support, BRN 300 ISK pu. Price will fight to stay above it. The cyan lines draw a triangle. As you might recall from few posts ago, triangles are particular and important patterns where price literally gets compressed (consolidation) like a coil till it explodes (break out), upwards or downwards. The graph shows a break out to below the triangle tip. This is a bearish signal therefore I dumped about 1B worth of isotopes. Sell signal #1. Robotics are on the rise. Sell signal #2. Smaller related markets of Liquid Ozone and Heavy Water are going down and (as usual) with a larger motion than Isotopes. Sell signal #3. So here are 3 sell signals and 2 of them come from comparing related markets.
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting	Posted - 2011.04.19 19:29:00 - [54] Quote: Warren Buffet is an investor, not a speculator, so you wouldn't see him trading commodities They guy mentioned "buy and hold" (which you don't with commodities either), it's on the same tangent. Quote: BTW, Weren't you selling at 300? Certainly, it's the benefit of those who bought early to be able to realize profit early and with no risk. Despite the brutally primitive analysis tools provided by EvE: - I anticipated a triangle and indeed it formed - A triangle is not a good thing, in the best case your money is stuck, in the worst, price tanks and you are screwed. In this particular case, isotopes did not budge for 1 whole month, a month I invested my now free cash to fund multiple investments some of which even visible on MD. - I still have about 1B left as a "runner", best trading is done with partial take profits. Finally, trend / pivot lines trading both in EvE and RL is about knowing that you WILL do mistakes and you'll lose, but you'll lose as little as possible. I read everywhere including SCC about people who get caught full of stock bought at price peaks and then they go the "I will wait it out". That's not a way to trade, the way to trade is to be nimble and get in and out and attempt to anticipate the market in order to lose with as little bruises as possible or to win with as much profit as possible. Auditing \| Research \| 3rd Party \| Collateral Holding \| EvE RL Charity
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2011.04.19 20:57:00 - [55] Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha They guy mentioned "buy and hold" (which you don't with commodities either), it's on the same tangent. So the guy who bought 500m units on Dec 12 at the bottom of the market after Hulkageddon was announced (see your own graph) and made 100bn is an idiot and you are a genius but only nibble with 1bn isk trades. If technical analysis only helps you see a few days into the future you should really stop wasting peoples time. Just because you don't understand how supply, demand, and inventories effect prices because you can't see them on your charts doesn't mean the rest of us are equally blind and ignorant.
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting	Posted - 2011.04.19 21:56:00 - [56] Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 19/04/2011 21:57:08 Originally by: Claire Voyant Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha They guy mentioned "buy and hold" (which you don't with commodities either), it's on the same tangent. So the guy who bought 500m units on Dec 12 at the bottom of the market after Hulkageddon was announced (see your own graph) and made 100bn is an idiot and you are a genius but only nibble with 1bn isk trades. If technical analysis only helps you see a few days into the future you should really stop wasting peoples time. Just because you don't understand how supply, demand, and inventories effect prices because you can't see them on your charts doesn't mean the rest of us are equally blind and ignorant. I don't know if it's even worth replying to a faceless alt going to personal insults but in a previous post I typed: Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha The only people who should have bought and hold would have been: - Warren Buffet - Those who like him would have bought during the very long consolidation at 250 which happens to be perfectly in line with the Dec 12 purchase. So your point was? Also, YOUR knowledge about demand and supply does not seem to be that superior, in fact you did not notice that such volume came because a pin bar formed down to 217 isk PU. A guy dumped an insane amount of stuff causing the price to tank and this enticed multiple other guys to generate 15% more orders in that day to buy it up. Furthermore, despite that day generating 4 times as much volume as usual, it did not create the usual sharp spike upwards which would happen if a lone guy bought such a chunk. It took almost 2 further months of consolidation before a gradual price would develop. Auditing \| Research \| 3rd Party \| Collateral Holding \| EvE RL Charity
Llyandrian Amarr Livestock Science Exchange	Posted - 2011.04.19 23:10:00 - [57] Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha predictions after the event. I was right on friday and you was wrong. I am right again and you are wrong again. Time will prove it.
Gillaboo	Posted - 2011.04.20 11:16:00 - [58] Ultimately, who cares what analysis technique you use. If you made a profit, it's all win. If you didn't make a profit... "Onoes". Took my isotope/ice profit over the weekend, and already moving to the next market play. Y'all have fun now.
Rakshasa Taisab Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries	Posted - 2011.04.20 18:13:00 - [59] Minerals I mine are free, and so is time I spend chasing meager profit margins.
Llyandrian Amarr Livestock Science Exchange	Posted - 2011.05.17 19:57:00 - [60] Originally by: Llyandrian The best market position remains buy and hold. I said buy and hold and time will tell. Time has told. Prices of ice products is rising fast and lot chasing same limited stock. Too late to buy at best prices so hold, regional isotope prices breaking 600, hold for max profits as Jita do the same perhaps higher if pressure on bots keep up.
Rakshasa Taisab Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries	Posted - 2011.05.21 06:55:00 - [61] Originally by: Llyandrian I said buy and hold and time will tell. Time has told. Prices of ice products is rising fast and lot chasing same limited stock. Too late to buy at best prices so hold, regional isotope prices breaking 600, hold for max profits as Jita do the same perhaps higher if pressure on bots keep up. But... But... His chartography shows that 50% profit for one months wait isn't worth it! And everyone knew nitrogen isotopes were bound to fall back to 200 ISK!
Llyandrian Amarr Livestock Science Exchange	Posted - 2011.05.21 07:31:00 - [62] Edited by: Llyandrian on 21/05/2011 07:35:58 If supply is contracted (by banning bots) the prices will rise. This is text book instance why chartists fail. You cannot ignore fundamental causes. Suggest Vaerah Vahrokha read Nassim Taleb before using chartist techniques in real life and she losses everything, just like Myron Scholes.
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting	Posted - 2011.05.21 08:37:00 - [63] Quote: I said buy and hold and time will tell. These are not stocks. If you have nothing to do but leave money sitting in the market (= risk) for a month, then you are assuming risk for no reward and you are providing free liquidity to someone else. Quote: But... But... His chartography shows that 50% profit for one months wait isn't worth it! It's not chartography, it's money management and it is used by all kinds of traders. Quote: And everyone knew nitrogen isotopes were bound to fall back to 200 ISK No, the market was flat, staying in it is stupid. Why would you park billions at 0% interest for a month? Even Grendell 1.7% bond would be better compared to this. Quote: If supply is contracted (by banning bots) the prices will rise. This is text book instance why chartists fail. You cannot ignore fundamental causes Even a fundamental trader would not tie money for a month doing nothing. Any kind of traders buy low and sell high. There's no "sit middle". Furthermore are also mixing in fundamental traders with news traders. Fundamental traders will have to see the fundamentals change before they act. Banning bots is not a fundamental, it's a news (until, past months, it becomes a real fundamental), Technetium being turned in bottleneck is, NPC goods being turned in PI are. A technical trader in all of this would just have sold when market flattened and incredible to say bought when the market started to rise again, freeing money to do something else in the meantime. Quote: Suggest Vaerah Vahrokha read Nassim Taleb before using chartist techniques in real life and she losses everything, just like Myron Scholes. About Nassim Taleb I suggest you read what a stop loss is. About Myron Scholes I suggest you read how he's the theoric of the anti-"chartist" approach. He was all about brownian motions, small market inefficiencies and so on. He is the diametrical opposite of a technical analyst, he had all his hot faith in math and hey, HE failed with grand style and HE fell to Nassim Taleb. Auditing \| Research \| 3rd Party \| Collateral Holding \| EvE RL Charity
Rakshasa Taisab Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries	Posted - 2011.05.21 09:38:00 - [64] Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha These are not stocks. If you have nothing to do but leave money sitting in the market (= risk) for a month, then you are assuming risk for no reward and you are providing free liquidity to someone else. By the time you can see the market moving up again, it's too late to buy back several days worth of trade volume off the market. Even if you estimate exactly when it would start rising with chartographical techniques, to buy back those stocks would prematurely trigger that rise leaving you with nothing. But since, as you say, you only trade a billion here, a billion there, sure it won't matter much. However not all of us deal in such paltry sums. Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha It's not chartography, it's money management and it is used by all kinds of traders. Moving ** around for the sake of moving it around is called 'stupidity', not 'money management'. Originally by:** Vaerah Vahrokha No, the market was flat, staying in it is stupid. Why would you park billions at 0% interest for a month? Even Grendell 1.7% bond would be better compared to this. 1.7% - 50% = 48.3% What an excellent investment tip... It's almost like there's a huge supply contraction that no one knew about, which lead to a price hike no one expected to come within a few weeks time. I'm left wondering if you got some kind of OCD that demands you to ensure every single moment of time your assets have maximum positive velocity, screw the long term. (Where long term means > 3 weeks) Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Even a fundamental trader would not tie money for a month doing nothing. Any kind of traders buy low and sell high. There's no "sit middle". Furthermore are also mixing in fundamental traders with news traders. Fundamental traders will have to see the fundamentals change before they act. If being a fundamental trader means always being too late to profit off a trend, then how do they make any money? You're saying they can't trade when it is possible to buy, and they can't buy when you say they can trade. Something here is fundamentally wrong, and I'm not saying that just to make a pun. Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Banning bots is not a fundamental, it's a news (until, past months, it becomes a real fundamental), Technetium being turned in bottleneck is, NPC goods being turned in PI are. A technical trader in all of this would just have sold when market flattened and incredible to say bought when the market started to rise again, freeing money to do something else in the meantime. Anyone who followed FF11 knew the bot banning wasn't a news item, it was fundamental change in the game. And anyone who bought enough to matter also would know they couldn't just dump, move money around and then buy again within that period of time.
Icanti	Posted - 2011.05.21 11:13:00 - [65] Supplies dwindling, buy orders rising. Isotopes are about the only thing in eve rising atm. Buy now before its too late!!!!
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting	Posted - 2011.05.21 12:22:00 - [66] Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab By the time you can see the market moving up again, it's too late to buy back several days worth of trade volume off the market That has nothing to do with T.A. (the thing I keep getting flamed for). That's your risk profile as a trader. You feel comfortable trading on steeply rising markets in order not to miss opportunities? It's fine. By all means, that's your wallet. I am conservative instead, therefore I want to wait for price confirmation first, then I eventually trade. If I lose trading opportunities, I don't care. I have been teached that capital preservation is important, and I stick to it. Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab But since, as you say, you only trade a billion here, a billion there, sure it won't matter much. However not all of us deal in such paltry sums. I diversified a lot and I am not e-filty rich any way. You'd have to understand that EvE concerns me about 1% vs other RL matters and these take the priority. What I share is just on my own initiative and scarce free time. Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab What an excellent investment tip... It's almost like there's a huge supply contraction that no one knew about, which lead to a price hike no one expected to come within a few weeks time. I'm left wondering if you got some kind of OCD that demands you to ensure every single moment of time your assets have maximum positive velocity, screw the long term. (Where long term means > 3 weeks) CCP banning bots is what inverted price, few weeks ago people were still screaming on GD about nothing being done. After the Fanfest statements there was an expectation of supply contraction but that in my eyes does not justify parking money in there. Face with the choice between gaining X% leaving money sitting there for a month vs gaining X% buying at the end of the flat market (and doing something else with it in the mean time) I still prefer the latter. Again, that has nothing to do with T.A., that's my own choice and I am fine with the possibility of missing some opportunities (and missing risks). Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab If being a fundamental trader means always being too late to profit off a trend, then how do they make any money? Akita T is a brilliant fundamental trader and does not arrive too late. Akita T performs significant research like a fundamental trader is meant to do, has insight and wits where others don't. She also has significant time to spend in a game to be on top of the situation. On my side I have minimal time to play at best, I could never compete in significant research so I just use what works with me. T.A. trading is always worse than fundamental trading, that's the tradeoff I have to pay. It takes all of 5 minutes every 3 months to grab some income, I want to share the way to do that. I am fairly confident there are EvE players whose playing time is as limited and that could benefit off T.A. Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab Anyone who followed FF11 knew the bot banning wasn't a news item, it was fundamental change in the game. And anyone who bought enough to matter also would know they couldn't just dump, move money around and then buy again within that period of time Anyone who followed CCP knows that not always their statements turn into application. I'd like to see first, believe later. Till then, I classify it as news. You can easily see the purchase in those double than average volume days when the buyout happened. That person(s) already dumped a chunk. I also noticed that isotopes gapped up while the isotopes sister commodities did not follow up and kept a flat slope, this would make me very uncomfortable to just go out and buy high like some above said. Auditing \| Research \| 3rd Party \| Collateral Holding \| EvE RL Charity
Gillaboo	Posted - 2011.05.21 19:32:00 - [67] Still bullish on ice... 200K/block by end of June... easy. Irregardless of what "techniques" you apply, or use, or support.... ONOES... all you had to do was pay attention to the Security Briefing from Fanfest. Better luck next time.
Viule Sawyr	Posted - 2011.05.21 23:20:00 - [68] Edited by: Viule Sawyr on 21/05/2011 23:23:12 Don't think the market will be able to bear these prices that or CCP is really going to screw the game market with the bot bans and not adding some product to the market place to ease the transition. Right now just in isotopes it's about 150mil/month to run 1 Large Caldari POS. Think about that for a second.. That is pretty close to "half" the price of a plex just for isotopes. Now add in the rest of the needed fuel and it's become an absurd amount to run a POS over 200 mil/mth. Now you can go with the You mine it it's free crap with PI & Ice mining and fuel your tower at no out of pocket cost. Yet I'll be dammed if I will do meaningless slave grind for fuel. What does this mean? It means I'm selling off my last WH and pulling my POS until fuel prices become realistic. That means 1 less buyer on the market and I'm sure there are many other like myself whom have decided or are close to deciding that the price of fuel has become far too much. CCP should have seeded the market a bit to not cause such a drastic spike, when they knew they were gonna ban thousands of bots that have held prices where they were. It's good they are banning the bots, don't get me wrong but they are also screwing everyone whom runs a POS in the process.
Gillaboo	Posted - 2011.05.21 23:35:00 - [69] Edited by: Gillaboo on 21/05/2011 23:40:07 Gillaboo's Edit for grammar. I needz more beerz. Originally by: Viule Sawyr CCP should have seeded the market a bit to not cause such a drastic spike, when they knew they were gonna ban thousands of bots that have held prices where they were. It's good they are banning the bots, don't get me wrong but they are also screwing everyone whom runs a POS in the process. POS were never meant to be a single person enterprise. They were meant to be a Corporate level effort, with groups of players sharing the costs...I have no doubt that 1-man POS operations are shutting down all over the place. Fly anywhere in high sec and the number of POS left abandoned is growing. I also have no doubt that CCP doesn't want players to rely on bots to keep the economy over-supplied with materials of any kind, thus making those materials artificially cheap. The proliferation of SuperCaps being a prime example of what happens at the top of the "botting foodchain". Instead of mining most of the minerals, players ran Anoms in 0.0 for ISK... which they then spent in Empire for various amounts of minerals...mined by botters. Face it, for years the EVE economy has been supported 23.5/7 by a flood of minerals from botters. Maybe we'll have a "Black Tuesday" and a "Great Depression"... and soup kitchens... and drifters hopping rides on empty freighters from system to system, looking for work... "Hey buddy, can you spare a can of rocket fuel?"
Viule Sawyr	Posted - 2011.05.21 23:44:00 - [70] Edited by: Viule Sawyr on 21/05/2011 23:46:24 Originally by: Gillaboo Edited by: Gillaboo on 21/05/2011 23:38:00 Edit for grammer. I needz more beerz. Originally by: Viule Sawyr CCP should have seeded the market a bit to not cause such a drastic spike, when they knew they were gonna ban thousands of bots that have held prices where they were. It's good they are banning the bots, don't get me wrong but they are also screwing everyone whom runs a POS in the process. POS were never meant to be a single person enterprise. They were meant to be a Corporate level effort, with groups of players sharing the costs...I have no doubt that 1-man POS operations are shutting down all over the place. Fly anywhere in high sec and the number of POS left abandoned is growing. I also have no doubt that CCP doesn't want players to rely on bots to keep the economy over-supplied with materials of any kind, thus making those materials artifically cheap. The proliferation of SuperCaps being a prime example of what happens at the top of the "botting foodchain". Instead of mining most of the minerals, players ran Anoms in 0.0 for ISK... which they then spent in Empire for various amounts of minerals...mined by botters. Face it, for years the EVE economy has been supported 23.5/7 by a flood of minerals from botters. Maybe we'll have a "Black Tuesday" and a "Great Depression"... and soup kitchens... and drifters hopping rides on empty freighters from systemm to system, looking for work... "Hey buddy, can you spare a can of rocket fuel?" POS may have not been meant for a 1 man operation, yet look at them. You can't give people access to them, even as a small corp, because they will steal you blind. Added to this 2 of my chars can keep every slot aside from ME research (hardly use it). That's 3 labs and 2 assembly arrays. Now you tell me how a POS is supposed to support multiple players if 1 large Caldari tower can barely support my 2 toons? As far as a depression, there is one thing to remember.. EVE is a game, if people feel it's another job they can and will quit. I run a POS the build stuff because it's semi interesting to do on the side. It becomes a lot less interesting when it becomes a grind just to fuel the tower.
malkisania asde solutions	Posted - 2011.05.22 01:14:00 - [71] Edited by: malkisania on 22/05/2011 01:14:41 Even with the illeged banning of bots, The price of isotopes was likely to rise due to the rise in demand that was created for them in the 1.5 patch. With Capital Ships no longer able to use jump bridges to move about they will have to dip into jump fuel they otherwise wouldn't have needed to use before the patch. Question is how much of the price increase is due to this and how much is because of botting bans?
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting	Posted - 2011.05.22 06:41:00 - [72] Originally by: Gillaboo POS were never meant to be a single person enterprise. They were meant to be a Corporate level effort, with groups of players sharing the costs Does something not convenient (ROI wise) suddenly become convenient because the costs are shared among multiple players? Also, POSes are indeed a corporate asset by design. The execution of the design is flawed so they are not and we have to deal with the execution not the design. IE sharing some POS functionality to corpies is impossible, restricting operations is too much "all or nothing" (read: too easy to steal OR cripple its usage). Plus With my accounts I fill 2 POSes alone, this means a POS is something that covers a grand total of about 2 accounts. Though, market will sort out itself. Maybe it's finally the end of the "350k a battlecruiser BPC" times. Auditing \| Research \| 3rd Party \| Collateral Holding \| EvE RL Charity
Florestan Bronstein Test Alliance Please Ignore	Posted - 2011.05.22 07:58:00 - [73] Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Does something not convenient (ROI wise) suddenly become convenient because the costs are shared among multiple players? because not only costs are shared but some of the benefits as well (corp hangar, SMA, POS shields, ...) fairly common to set up a moon-mining POS at a mediocre moon that is only made "profitable" by its additional utility as a safespot for ratters.
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting	Posted - 2011.05.22 08:37:00 - [74] Originally by: Florestan Bronstein Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Does something not convenient (ROI wise) suddenly become convenient because the costs are shared among multiple players? because not only costs are shared but some of the benefits as well (corp hangar, SMA, POS shields, ...) fairly common to set up a moon-mining POS at a mediocre moon that is only made "profitable" by its additional utility as a safespot for ratters. I was replying in the train that talked about ME / PE research etc (read: what brings IN money). This is largely an hi sec thing, when I was in 0.0 we did what you say but it was not the ME / PE factor to make it worthwhile but only the logistic. It is still a cost and going to cost more (what brings out money). Auditing \| Research \| 3rd Party \| Collateral Holding \| EvE RL Charity
Brixer Dai Dai Hai	Posted - 2011.05.22 16:42:00 - [75] I'm out of oxygen isos today. It was a crazy run, but I see miners leaving ore-belts to hunt down the profit in ice products. So, can anyone guess what will rise in price if miners go to ice mining, and bots continue getting banned?
Viule Sawyr	Posted - 2011.05.22 17:30:00 - [76] Edited by: Viule Sawyr on 22/05/2011 17:31:09 Originally by: Florestan Bronstein Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Does something not convenient (ROI wise) suddenly become convenient because the costs are shared among multiple players? because not only costs are shared but some of the benefits as well (corp hangar, SMA, POS shields, ...) fairly common to set up a moon-mining POS at a mediocre moon that is only made "profitable" by its additional utility as a safespot for ratters. Well mine is a lab POS in a C1. After standard ship bay, corp hanger and defense, I have 3 labs and 2 assembly arrays. My two toons that use the POS can use "more" than what the single large gives me. Yes the POS doubles as a place to keep my stuff working as a base in a WH, but how exactly am I supposed to share it with anyone? There are no extra lab or build slots left, meaning only thing a corp-mate would have left over is hanger space. Now with the fact that ship hangers have no assignable bays I'll be damned if I'm sharing that with anyone else.. lol For a Lab POS to be a corp asset it would need to be either corp-mates that did very low volume work, or the labs would need to be changed to allow more slots. TBH, if it wasn't for no copy slots in empire space I'd just use NPC stations. However copy slots are the bottle neck so I need a POS if I want to build at enough volume for it to be worthwhile.
Gillaboo	Posted - 2011.05.23 04:06:00 - [77] Well, it is indeed the solo POS tycoons that will feel the pinch first. Those of us lucky enough to have trustworthy corpies -- to share the cost and cooperate even for the sake of a bit of ice mining -- we'll see you on the other side. Everything runs in cycles. This one has been a long time coming.
Llyandrian Amarr Livestock Science Exchange	Posted - 2011.06.03 12:21:00 - [78] The total volume of isotopes offered for sale is still falling, therefore we can expect Isotopes will rise again over the coming week.

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