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Claire Voyant
148
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Posted - 2014.05.04 00:18:00 -
[151] - Quote
mynnna wrote:So they're falling, in other words. This isn't much of a surprise to anyone who watched EyjoG's economy presentation at fanfest. People who listen to the good doctor are rarely surprised but often amused.
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Claire Voyant
148
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Posted - 2014.05.08 12:29:00 -
[152] - Quote
Speak of the Devil: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2hsqEvPGWQ&list=UU3cxDDMpYTZ7PqZma4NdNuA&feature=share&index=1 |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
3448
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Posted - 2014.05.08 13:05:00 -
[153] - Quote
Hooray, now that it's posted, maybe everyone will pick up on "speculation is driving the recent increase".
Then the real fun starts.
e: Here's the TL;DR of the section in case you don't want to watch it for some weird reason.
* Plex behaves as an investment good with potential utility, similar to gold in the meat world. * Subscriptions are the biggest source of PLEX consumption. * Graph at 17:40. Sales of PLEX have been increasing throughout the lifetime of plex, yet since summer 2013 quantity traded on the market has been dropping. This led to the rapid spike we've observed. * PLEX Pricing policy is unchanged: CCP does not maintain a target price for PLEX prices. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Claire Voyant
148
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Posted - 2014.05.08 13:26:00 -
[154] - Quote
One slight critique from the fanfest presentation is the second largest isk faucet is labeled "commodities."
The second largest isk faucet is sleeper components (also known as wormhole blue books) which are bought by NPCs on the market so maybe "tags" might be a better descriptor.
I can't think of any other current NPC market faucets off the top of my head. |
Claire Voyant
148
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Posted - 2014.05.08 13:33:00 -
[155] - Quote
mynnna wrote:Hooray, now that it's posted, maybe everyone will pick up on "speculation is driving the recent increase". Then the real fun starts. e: Here's the TL;DR of the section in case you don't want to watch it for some weird reason. * Plex behaves as an investment good with potential utility, similar to gold in the meat world. * Subscriptions are the biggest source of PLEX consumption. * Graph at 17:40. Sales of PLEX have been increasing throughout the lifetime of plex, yet since summer 2013 quantity traded on the market has been dropping. This led to the rapid spike we've observed. * PLEX Pricing policy is unchanged: CCP does not maintain a target price for PLEX prices. The important point to note is that he says PLEX sales (by CCP) have been consistently increasing (although he provided no numbers or graphs for obvious reasons.) So the real question is "Why are the PLEX bought by players resulting in fewer relative market trades?"
Assuming every PLEX bought with RL cash is sold for isk on the market at least once, some of those market buyers are not reselling PLEX immediately for a short-term profit but instead hanging on to PLEX for the long run. |
MailDeadDrop
Rage and Terror Against ALL Authorities
312
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Posted - 2014.05.08 15:26:00 -
[156] - Quote
Claire Voyant wrote:The important point to note is that he says PLEX sales (by CCP) have been consistently increasing (although he provided no numbers or graphs for obvious reasons.) So the real question is "Why are the PLEX bought by players resulting in fewer relative market trades?"
Assuming every PLEX bought with RL cash is sold for isk on the market at least once, some of those market buyers are not reselling PLEX immediately for a short-term profit but instead hanging on to PLEX for the long run. I'm not convinced you have enough information to draw any such conclusions. For example, it may simply be that the market in PLEX exceeds the capacity of speculators, so that PLEX sales are mostly to end consumers (people with accounts to feed). There's simply not enough information released by CCP to determine what's happening.
MDD |
Claire Voyant
148
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Posted - 2014.05.08 18:05:00 -
[157] - Quote
MailDeadDrop wrote:I'm not convinced you have enough information to draw any such conclusions. For example, it may simply be that the market in PLEX exceeds the capacity of speculators, so that PLEX sales are mostly to end consumers (people with accounts to feed). There's simply not enough information released by CCP to determine what's happening. Yes, but there is plenty of information (for some) to speculate on what's happening.
I think you do have a valid point, that there is limited isk for short-term PLEX speculation but that is not the whole story.
I used to work in commodities trading and once made a model of the US gasoline market. The storage of petroleum products is divided into three broad sectors: Primary (refineries, pipelines, and large tank farms), Secondary (wholesale storage, tanker trucks, and retail underground tanks) and Tertiary (end user storage.) It turns out the tertiary storage capacity dwarfs the primary and secondary storage. Think of all the gas tanks in vehicles. What this means is that if there is ever a potential disruption to gasoline supply and people rush out to fill up their tanks the distribution system will quickly break down and you will see lines at the pump like we did in the 70's.
The tl;dr is that it might not be short-term speculators that are driving up PLEX prices, but it could just be ordinary end-users buying extra PLEX just in case the price is lot higher a year from now. I think that is part of what mynnna is driving at. Speculators presumably flip their inventories while end-users buy and hold so that would account for the lower velocity.
The other factor is the Dr. E is not giving us the whole story. He says PLEX sales by CCP have been increasing since they were introduced, but we know it has not been a steady increase month to month. I don't think it is a coincidence that the drop in market volume last September and October brought about the 4 for the price of 3 sale on Amazon in late September and the "accidental sale" in late October.
Another possible explanation for low velocity those months is that people who scooped up low priced PLEX held on to it for future sale or their own use. Ordinarily you would expect people buying PLEX for cash to convert it to isk fairly promptly since there is no incentive to buy PLEX at full price just to sit on it (unless they felt the RL price was going up.) Some people might buy two or three PLEX to take advantage of the lower price and only sell them one at a time as the need arose, but I think that use case can be ignored when it comes to velocity.
Anyway, I think this just proves my point that there is more than enough information to speculate on. |
MailDeadDrop
Rage and Terror Against ALL Authorities
313
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Posted - 2014.05.08 22:07:00 -
[158] - Quote
Claire Voyant wrote:(snip story about US gasoline market) "Mommy, make the scary lady stop talking."
MDD |
Claire Voyant
148
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Posted - 2014.05.08 22:48:00 -
[159] - Quote
MailDeadDrop wrote:Claire Voyant wrote:(snip story about US gasoline market) "Mommy, make the scary lady stop talking." Wait until you hear me describe the post-Kronos logistics chain. |
Nevyn Auscent
Broke Sauce
1332
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Posted - 2014.05.08 23:14:00 -
[160] - Quote
mynnna wrote:So they're falling, in other words. This isn't much of a surprise to anyone who watched EyjoG's economy presentation at fanfest. Most people are still to watch those streams since they are only just going up on youtube now. So hardly surprising most people aren't informed about them yet. |
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Mike Azariah
DemSal Corporation DemSal Unlimited
1131
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Posted - 2014.05.09 01:01:00 -
[161] - Quote
Claire Voyant wrote: The other factor is the Dr. E is not giving us the whole story. He says PLEX sales by CCP have been increasing since they were introduced, but we know it has not been a steady increase month to month. I don't think it is a coincidence that the drop in market volume last September and October brought about the 4 for the price of 3 sale on Amazon in late September and the "accidental sale" in late October.
Another possible explanation for low velocity those months is that people who scooped up low priced PLEX held on to it for future sale or their own use. Ordinarily you would expect people buying PLEX for cash to convert it to isk fairly promptly since there is no incentive to buy PLEX at full price just to sit on it (unless they felt the RL price was going up.) Some people might buy two or three PLEX to take advantage of the lower price and only sell them one at a time as the need arose, but I think that use case can be ignored when it comes to velocity.
Anyway, I think this just proves my point that there is more than enough information to speculate on.
The good Doctor never gives the whole story. Not directly.
The 'sudden sales of Amazon' and others filled folks tanks and drove the volume down for a time but like gas, sooner or later you have to fill up again.
m
Mike Azariah-á CSM8 and now CSM9 |
Je'ron
The Happy Shooters
1
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Posted - 2014.05.09 19:20:00 -
[162] - Quote
Pity the Doctor didn't show any data on PLEX consumption, like: - Game Time - AUR/Nex purchase - Ship paint jobs - Character transfers/resculpturing/ Multi character training - Tournament buy-ins - Event tickets/ live streams including (relative) amounts and correlation of (introduction of new) usage with the PLEX-prices. |
Lar Tadaruwa
State War Academy Caldari State
0
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Posted - 2014.05.13 16:12:00 -
[163] - Quote
Around 150 PLEX units at 711m in Jita 4-4 Around another 75 units at 710m in Jita 4-4 |
Angella Guard
GALAXY ACADEMY GALAXY ALLIANCE
1
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Posted - 2014.05.14 20:23:00 -
[164] - Quote
you know, just funny:
PLEX in Verge |
Lar Tadaruwa
State War Academy Caldari State
2
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Posted - 2014.05.15 00:37:00 -
[165] - Quote
I just got 1 for 715m minus taxes (or costs). |
Vibiana
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
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Posted - 2014.05.22 08:14:00 -
[166] - Quote
Yay! New spike! 25 mil a day. Nice |
TedStriker
The Scope Gallente Federation
21
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Posted - 2014.05.22 12:37:00 -
[167] - Quote
It was to be expected this time. Not only did Dr.E mention that they capped the price artificially, he also mentioned that speed is low thus the price could hit alot higher.
I suppose they capped it long enough, now its up-up time again. They will only intervene if it spikes too fast, BUT...Dr.E is on his way out, who knows if there is anyone rdy to intervene again, could take time, so yea, sky is the limit for Plex right now. |
Vibiana
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
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Posted - 2014.05.22 13:34:00 -
[168] - Quote
I wonder, how much isk does an average player have per month to allocate on things such as PLEX/NEX/ isk doubling service |
Lar Tadaruwa
State War Academy Caldari State
14
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Posted - 2014.05.22 13:52:00 -
[169] - Quote
10 at 836m Jita 4-4 8 in station, one 5 Jumps, 2 SolarSystem
715m pays around 705m with Trade IV and other minimal trading skills for sale.
(My trader does better, that was only using the minimum hauling transacting opportunities.)
EVE Online Billboard News http://community.eveonline.com/news/news-channels
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Seven Koskanaiken
The Shadow Plague Fidelas Constans
1265
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Posted - 2014.05.22 14:02:00 -
[170] - Quote
It's a pyramid scheme that needs a constant influx of low SP players at the bottom. |
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Steve Celeste
Overdogs
280
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Posted - 2014.05.22 17:14:00 -
[171] - Quote
It was fun to figure out how much I could drag the buy orders up every 5 minutes.
1 million was too much, my buy order just sat there with the rest staying below it. So I tried 400-500k isk every 5 minutes and most of them followed me. The road was clear with lowest sell orders sitting at 775, I was hoping we could reach 800 on a slow wednesday before US primetime.
Then suddenly a huge block of sell orders appeared at 762-ish. All about 8-10 plex stacks with 3 second difference in creation time...
Oh well, lets try again next week. |
Lar Tadaruwa
State War Academy Caldari State
19
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Posted - 2014.05.29 15:13:00 -
[172] - Quote
Lar Tadaruwa wrote:10 at 836m Jita 4-4 ...at 836m Jita 4-4 or 736m?
741m , 739m , 736m
EVE Online Billboard News http://community.eveonline.com/news/news-channels
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Oinola Akachi
State War Academy Caldari State
2
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Posted - 2014.07.21 01:59:00 -
[173] - Quote
To 803m or 808m in Jita... Still less than 830m+
Down to 795m after I go on a roam, lose a 30m ship by a 0.1 or 0.3 second delay. I'd been better off buying 2 at that rate before it lowered. It also costed me another $30 on top (the price of the time and almost, 2 PLeX) and more for food instead.
So, next time I'm offered to Roam, I'll make sure I get the PLeX first, which will drive a recent increase. |
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