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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1571
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 18:15:00 -
[121] - Quote
you are blowing up that mountain all wrong, as you can see by my advanced 'moving a pile of sand while only eating most of it' skills |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1571
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 18:16:00 -
[122] - Quote
and suggesting that secrecy is valuble in a supply interdiction based on terror intimidation and destruction is priceless |
jm24
CRICE Corp Goonswarm Federation
15
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Posted - 2011.11.14 18:36:00 -
[123] - Quote
The ceiling on acceptable isotope price may be touched upon during this interdiction. For far too long isotope prices have been set at prices that were not proportionate to their true value. At what price will isotope prices become a deterrent to using the corresponding racial capital ships? For now people seem content with paying 1500, but will that change upwards of 2000?
Another question is will the price not actually recede, and will other isotopes actually rise to match the markets willingness to pay for isotopes. Perhaps this interdiction will have far reaching consequences beyond what is apparent.
For those not very current with the market, there is a burn rate of about 15m units from sells daily, with approx 4-5m supply (whether mined or from stockpiles). For now it seems like the sky is the limit for those patient holders. There does not seem to be any significant stockpiles left, or atleast not willing to sell below a threshold not yet reached.
In a word, this is exciting. |
Sizeof Void
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
36
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 18:44:00 -
[124] - Quote
Well, Weaslior, you originally asked the MD "pseudointellectuals" to comment on the market impact of GoonSwarm Shrugged, and, after reading back through the posts, it is clear that you (and the other Goons, who mostly opted to troll) didn't care much for the responses which you received.
Sorry that no one here seems willing to just outright proclaim it all a great Goon victory, one for the history books, but, take it as you will. Many of us just don't take it all quite as... personally, I guess... as you Goon role players seem to do, and trolling does eventually get rather boring. I'm sure you'll get plenty of, and more positive, support for your POV from other sides of the Eve community.
Regards... and good luck with GoonSwarm Shrugged. |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1571
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 18:55:00 -
[125] - Quote
regrettably your analysis has been full of easily-debunked holes, I was hoping for analysis that could not be disproven within seconds |
Bernard Schuyler
Aurora Security Transstellar Operations
1
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 19:10:00 -
[126] - Quote
jm24 wrote: Another question is will the price not actually recede, and will other isotopes actually rise to match the markets willingness to pay for isotopes. Perhaps this interdiction will have far reaching consequences beyond what is apparent.
Perhaps, but isn't it equally likely that people expect this to be a short to mid-term bubble, and are eating the increased cost as part of doing businesss? That doesn't necessarily imply that everything would continue as normal if this were a permanent change, or if all four isotopes were to match this price.
Although there is certainly anecdotal evidence to suggest there is a glut of isk in the game, which could support higher prices... but still that is a much bigger issue and I do not think that a spike in one commodity can predict that. |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1571
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 19:36:00 -
[127] - Quote
"operate at a loss" is a dumb idea, you would need to expend significant effort to turn valuble fuel into less valuble things
you could argue these pos farm owners have stockpiles, but that's just not understanding oppurtunity cost (and to be fair, that's possible, eve players are idiots) |
jm24
CRICE Corp Goonswarm Federation
17
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 19:37:00 -
[128] - Quote
Bernard Schuyler wrote:jm24 wrote: Another question is will the price not actually recede, and will other isotopes actually rise to match the markets willingness to pay for isotopes. Perhaps this interdiction will have far reaching consequences beyond what is apparent.
Perhaps, but isn't it equally likely that people expect this to be a short to mid-term bubble, and are eating the increased cost as part of doing businesss? That doesn't necessarily imply that everything would continue as normal if this were a permanent change, or if all four isotopes were to match this price. Although there is certainly anecdotal evidence to suggest there is a glut of isk in the game, which could support higher prices... but still that is a much bigger issue and I do not think that a spike in one commodity can predict that. To classify this as a bubble would be misleading, the market prices are simply floating based on the demand given the constrained supply. A bubble would imply the prices are unsustainable, but how can that statement be true given that the daily volume remains relatively unchanged since before the interdiction.
Whether a correction will happen once the underlying issues are resolved remains to be seen. For now the prices are going up up up. |
Elise DarkStar
DarkCorp Capital Group DarkCorp Imperium
140
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 19:40:00 -
[129] - Quote
My guess is that you'll see people shut down their gallente reaction farms first in hopes of waiting it out. I imagine people would rather sit on their hands for a month and hope than tear down and rebuild their farms right away. It should be close enough to the winter "expansion" with its anchoring changes that people will just wait for that.
The key number is when mining thick blue in nullsec becomes more profitable than mining whatever people do now ("ABCs", I believe). |
jm24
CRICE Corp Goonswarm Federation
17
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 19:41:00 -
[130] - Quote
Perhaps a telling anecdotal detail, the want to buy JF character(toons) threads in the character bazaar are clearly stating no anshars. It seems there is confidence by the market the price may be around for some time. |
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jm24
CRICE Corp Goonswarm Federation
17
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 19:43:00 -
[131] - Quote
Elise DarkStar wrote:My guess is that you'll see people shut down their gallente reaction farms first in hopes of waiting it out. I imagine people would rather sit on their hands for a month and hope than tear down and rebuild their farms right away. It should be close enough to the winter "expansion" with its anchoring changes that people will just wait for that.
The key number is when mining thick blue in nullsec becomes more profitable than mining whatever people do now ("ABCs", I believe).
That is well into the past 5k range |
Elise DarkStar
DarkCorp Capital Group DarkCorp Imperium
140
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 19:46:00 -
[132] - Quote
jm24 wrote:That is well into the past 5k range
I've seen so many numbers thrown around already.
Somebody needs to sit down for 10 minutes and do the math.
I'm too lazy.
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1571
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 19:53:00 -
[133] - Quote
thick blue ice produces 350 isotopes, up from 300 in highsec
this is...not a lot... as a bonus for mining in 0.0
what that compares to mining arknor (or, perhaps more relevantly, mining industry upgrade mining sites) or drone region sanctuming is another :effort: question |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1571
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 19:54:00 -
[134] - Quote
Elise DarkStar wrote:My guess is that you'll see people shut down their gallente reaction farms first in hopes of waiting it out. I imagine people would rather sit on their hands for a month and hope than tear down and rebuild their farms right away. It should be close enough to the winter "expansion" with its anchoring changes that people will just wait for that.
The key number is when mining thick blue in nullsec becomes more profitable than mining whatever people do now ("ABCs", I believe). gallente reactor farms shutting down is precisely the goal we're aiming for. It was not exaggeration when I said earlier that tearing down and redeploying a reactor farm is pretty much the height of griefing: you are in for a miserable day of space work and potentially several |
OllieNorth
R-K Industries Sexy Alliance
11
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 19:59:00 -
[135] - Quote
I'm sorry, I must have missed this, but is there an agenda behind this? Or is canbaiting noobs finally getting boring? |
Lord Zim
Bat Country Goonswarm Federation
136
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:08:00 -
[136] - Quote
Hey, if you try a bit harder, you might just make an edgy post. |
jm24
CRICE Corp Goonswarm Federation
17
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:09:00 -
[137] - Quote
OllieNorth wrote:I'm sorry, I must have missed this, but is there an agenda behind this? Or is canbaiting noobs finally getting boring?
A curious child will drop a rock in a pond to see what happens. Upon seeing the splash, the fun will continue until they are tired. |
jm24
CRICE Corp Goonswarm Federation
17
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:11:00 -
[138] - Quote
The difference is we know about splashes and used a big rock in a small pond. |
Elise DarkStar
DarkCorp Capital Group DarkCorp Imperium
140
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:11:00 -
[139] - Quote
Ya, I'm not exactly sure when this forum turned from badass finance guys who would steal babies if there was a buck in it to blinded-by-"goonie"-hate hisec carebears, but it is definitely a turn for the worst. |
jm24
CRICE Corp Goonswarm Federation
17
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:13:00 -
[140] - Quote
Don't forget we are all Aspies and are high on sunny-d. Expect this to last for some time. |
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Bernard Schuyler
Aurora Security Transstellar Operations
1
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:26:00 -
[141] - Quote
jm24 wrote:To classify this as a bubble would be misleading, the market prices are simply floating based on the demand given the constrained supply. A bubble would imply the prices are unsustainable, but how can that statement be true given that the daily volume remains relatively unchanged since before the interdiction.
Whether a correction will happen once the underlying issues are resolved remains to be seen. For now the prices are going up up up.
OK, "bubble" was the wrong word choice. But say you are so successful that you get bored and go interdict Caldari ice for awhile... That is certainly possible, albeit not guaranteed :-p
Doesn't the fact that it is only Oxytopes suggest that there will be a limit eventually where people will just switch over to different ships, towers, etc? Of course that would put upward pressure on those topes... although without Interdiction all the old Oxy miners would have joined that market increasing supply... it isn't like Ice is scarce.
I will guess that when you start to see the Gallente hi-sec towers put up by one-man corps go offline is when you will see the price peak past sustainable for the average joe. Although if PLEX prices keep going up, you may see the dedicated simply tack the fuel costs onto their subscription fees. |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1571
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:30:00 -
[142] - Quote
that precise uncertainty about when we will go "ok we're bored" is a wonderful asset: it blocks planning for the future and increases the information edge we hold about future economic swings as a result of the interdiction, increasing our ability to profit |
Krios Ahzek
Juvenis Iratus
130
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:31:00 -
[143] - Quote
Bernard Schuyler wrote: Although if PLEX prices keep going up, you may see the dedicated simply tack the fuel costs onto their subscription fees.
Gas prices are high enough in the real world, I can't see why someone would use real money to pay for overpriced space fuel too. I live, I post, I slay. I am content. |
Bernard Schuyler
Aurora Security Transstellar Operations
1
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:37:00 -
[144] - Quote
Krios Ahzek wrote:Bernard Schuyler wrote: Although if PLEX prices keep going up, you may see the dedicated simply tack the fuel costs onto their subscription fees. Gas prices are high enough in the real world, I can't see why someone would use real money to pay for overpriced space fuel too.
Clearly you have not heard. Internet spaceships is serious business.
But seriously... People flip PLEX all the time... Some might buy pimped out T3s... surely some do it to fuel POSes after a cash flow problem. |
Lord Zim
Bat Country Goonswarm Federation
136
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:39:00 -
[145] - Quote
Bernard Schuyler wrote:Doesn't the fact that it is only Oxytopes suggest that there will be a limit eventually where people will just switch over to different ships, towers, etc? Oh dear, are you saying we might turn nyxes and erebuses into space tombs forever destined to do nothing but do sanctums because they're literally too expensive to move, and they can't be reprocessed?
My, that would just be dreadful. |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1571
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:40:00 -
[146] - Quote
Bernard Schuyler wrote:Krios Ahzek wrote:Bernard Schuyler wrote: Although if PLEX prices keep going up, you may see the dedicated simply tack the fuel costs onto their subscription fees. Gas prices are high enough in the real world, I can't see why someone would use real money to pay for overpriced space fuel too. Clearly you have not heard. Internet spaceships is serious business. But seriously... People flip PLEX all the time... Some might buy pimped out T3s... surely some do it to fuel POSes after a cash flow problem. i have little respect for the intelligence of the common pubbie but I find it unlikely even the common pubbie will take real money and turn it into space money, so he can take that space money and with a great deal of effort turn that space money into less space money |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1571
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:40:00 -
[147] - Quote
Lord Zim wrote:Bernard Schuyler wrote:Doesn't the fact that it is only Oxytopes suggest that there will be a limit eventually where people will just switch over to different ships, towers, etc? Oh dear, are you saying we might turn nyxes and erebuses into space tombs forever destined to do nothing but do sanctums because they're literally too expensive to move, and they can't be reprocessed? My, that would just be dreadful. my nyx is mothballed so I can use my nyx pilot to gank ice miners :XD: |
OllieNorth
R-K Industries Sexy Alliance
11
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:41:00 -
[148] - Quote
All snark aside, is this a purposed thing, or merely a matter of scientific inquiry? Or do you simply dislike the Gallente? I have to say I don't see much of a reaction besides people switching away from Gallente towers. It seems that many POSers would much rather put up with a day of tower-misery than fight for a cheaper source of fuel. And with many invention/manufacturing concerns running as close to even as they are, I don't see many just accepting the price increase.
In other news, what is the ice barge destroyed total at this point? |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1571
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:43:00 -
[149] - Quote
the breakdown is here: http://killboard.goonfleet.com/shrugged.html |
Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1571
|
Posted - 2011.11.14 20:44:00 -
[150] - Quote
the purpose can be gleened from the updates posted at kugu, regrettably I cannot link those here due to :cco: |
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