Great to see you again Hexxx. Are you making a fundamental error of "previous trustworthiness is no guarantee of future trustworthiness"? I guess I'm not seeing how the "credit" of debtors is set.

MDD

Just dropping in to say "Hi!" as it's nice to see you're still around.

I can't really offer you much in the way of feedback on your scheme, since I don't really understand any of it. Maybe that indicates that you need a more idiot friendly description of what you are doing?

I wish you the best of luck!

An interesting proposal. I've got a couple of questions:

1) Regarding the use of a single character as the executor of the exchange: I'd imagine there would be advantages and disadvantages of using a corporation instead, allowing multiple individuals to execute orders on the market. Can you see any definitive reason(s) to use one over the other?

2) Risk assessment: you mentioned that your current idea of a credit score is rather fluid and based on the CDS contracts themselves. Would it be beneficial to include a score based on the individual(s) requesting said CDS contracts?

All-in-all, an interesting idea.

I think that puts you back into the "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" trap. I understand the attractiveness of some "safety" indication. But Eve being Eve, we've got to be very careful with any such rating.

A perhaps better metric would be a measure of how "at risk" the debtor's assets are (e.g. held by known independents for other purposes). For example (this is an off-the-cuff example): If a debtor has BPOs locked down by Chribba/flakeys/RAW32 (I'm not meaning to slight anyone by omission) then they might be more inclined to keep their trustworthy reputation.

MDD

Interesting idea but do you really think there is a market for debt derivatives considering how small the market for actual debt is? Public raising of debt by large alliances and corporations is pretty much non-existent in any case and the individual public debt market is pretty small these days as well (especially now that Grendell is shutting up shop and thus removing something in the region of 90% of the uncollateralised public debt currently in play). Numbers of investors are pretty small as well, so wouldn't this undermine a 'wisdom of crowds' approach if you have not so much a crowd but a handful of individuals providing the market sentiment?

Yeah, this is what I was referring to. While the securities themselves would do well with a risk profile of some kind, it would also be rather beneficial to have a risk profile of the individual who is issuing the CDS contracts. It could be based off of a variety of metrics, including, but not limited to, character age, and the risk profiles of past CDS contracts.


On the note of the automation via a web application (and as someone who's building one), WTB a CREST endpoint for transferring ISK.

On the flipside, could we see in an increase in activity due to (a) those borrowers who would have gone through Grendell having to come directly to the marketplace, and (b) investors needing to look at what else is available other than Grendell? The same supply and demand in theory, but spread out and more diverse.

A real working exchange that does what you describe would need significant amount of time and effort to create, are you sure you want to saddle up to that time commitment again?

Occam's razor needs to play a major part in anything like this, the average user doesn't know or care what they are doing, only that there "maybe" an investment and there "maybe" a profit in it. The main problem I see here is, the most simple solution is already in place and in game.

The biggest issue with creating something that already exists in your wallet is you have to make people want to be able to start using your insecure, risk based alternative. The only way I can see this happening is if you already have established a commitment from entities to use your Exchange prior to release. Entities that want it in the first place, and entities that customers want to interact with.

It's a worthy cause, but to make it easy, simple to understand both front in and mechanically back end for the MD Elites is a tall order.

But welcome back anyway :)

Hello, Hexxx and all those long time no see guys!

I have some questions:

1) What's the ROI on this? Given it's a super-niche thing you are going to spend tons of time for ... what returns?

2) Do people even understand any of this? Maybe write a plan that's understandable by simple human beings who know nothing about CDS?

3) What happens in case of an insured event? What's the pricing scheme? What about the supposed back up loss reserve?

There's one issue, that for people like me is really "game breaking".


EvE markets, even Trit and isotopes, are just barely liquid enough to effectively implement true investment and / or hedging strategies.

A niche market does not allow price to express itself well enough, it's more of a coin toss than an investment.

Illiquid EvE markets at least have a year+ history (some times much more) so price may still be read through its reaction to supply and demand levels. This new market would lack even that.

Imo the only way to ever have a similar initiative take off has two elements:

1) Is presented in a very, VERY simple way so it may be embraced by a lot of market participants.

2) It's pegged to other EvE markets, so an investor may study those to infer which strategies to apply on the new specific market.


When I have applied those principles (my big 100B funds), I have created the only marketplace that had both factors.
It was easy to understand (many know what mutual funds are) and pegged to EvE markets (so everyone could study isotopes, minerals etc. to "get tips" about what to do and place market orders on my exchange).

Hexxx has "just" to do something similar.

You actually only need to implement the same system as seen by LendingClub. It's a P2P lender, where anyone can sign up to receive credit, or invest in other people who have signed up and get regular monthly payments (as long as they don't default). The way they work it is to separate the load among thousands of investors so that not one person takes the entire hit of a non-payment.

So....

How I see it (as it pertains to Eve), you already have a contract system. A person can create a 'debt contract' where they state "I need to borrow X money for Y months for Z.' They then click a "Get Quote" button where the game detects how much debt you already have, as well as any nonpayment history and gives you a score. In order to keep people from spamming it, it can cost ISK to actually get a quote. You can then activate the contract to list it on the debt contract market.

Anyone willing to risk a little ISK can view the list of debt contracts and decide to invest in anyone they want for as much as they want at whatever % they want. When you've chosen to invest, your money is immediately taken away and assigned to that contract, no canceling. The % that investors choose for a contract are sorted from lowest to highest, and any amount that goes over the requested will be returned to the owner. Contracts expire automatically after 1 month if it never gets filled, and it expires 1 week after it gets filled (all money is returned to their owners). The writer of the contract can choose at any point to "excise" the contract and agree to the current % rate (which is an average among all chosen % across the entire profile) up until expiration (even unfilled contracts).

Agreed on % rates are linked to contract scores to give an averaging chart for everyone, so that we can all see what acceptable amounts would be. All debts can be listed in a tab in the wallet menu, where you can see how much you owe, what your % rate is, and a button to 'Pay'. When a payment is made, all those linked to the contract get a piece based on the amount they invested.

I imagine with the new SSO system this can be more easily accomplished now?

Im currently building something similar ;)

Expecting it long before soon(TM)... but you dont like this then?

Not yet and not as complex as you are talking about this is just a slow project which i dont really know the direction i am going with it lol and lack of experience in finance in eve so just winging it really :)