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Kaivar Lancer
Placid Peace Corps
718
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Posted - 2016.02.10 03:17:02 -
[91] - Quote
BUY BUY BUY! |
Scipio Artelius
The Vendunari End of Life
44449
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Posted - 2016.02.10 03:22:58 -
[92] - Quote
Kaivar Lancer wrote:BUY BUY BUY! Seems a lot of people are:
http://puu.sh/n2kaz/ad988266a5.png
Come Win At Eve - Join The Vendunari
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Jenn aSide
Shinigami Miners Test Alliance Please Ignore
13556
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Posted - 2016.02.10 03:29:58 -
[93] - Quote
Scipio Artelius wrote:Kaivar Lancer wrote:BUY BUY BUY! Seems a lot of people are: http://puu.sh/n2kaz/ad988266a5.png So approximately 60,000 extractors used in the first 10 hours following the release.
lol, I drained an unused alt and bought a jump freighter :)
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Tyberius Franklin
Federal Navy Academy Gallente Federation
1904
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Posted - 2016.02.10 03:51:00 -
[94] - Quote
Scipio Artelius wrote:Kaivar Lancer wrote:BUY BUY BUY! Seems a lot of people are: http://puu.sh/n2kaz/ad988266a5.png So approximately 60,000 extractors used in the first 10 hours following the release. It would be interesting to know how much of that SP hit the market vs the amount just shuffled between characters owned by the same player. |
Memphis Baas
1098
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Posted - 2016.02.10 03:54:30 -
[95] - Quote
I'm thinking CCP will post some stats in a couple days. |
Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
4684
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Posted - 2016.02.10 05:53:02 -
[96] - Quote
Interesting, looks like SP will be settling at about 680-700 ISK/SP in Jita....so far.
And initial large supply could be driving the price that low....will be curious to see how it goes forward.
Looks like the overall effect on PLEX has been fairly minimal, as well. Maybe a 10% boost in the cost of a PLEX so far.
Upgrading Local to Eliminate All AFK Influence
So Local Chat vanished, now what?
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Kalgeroth
Imperial Shipment Amarr Empire
39
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Posted - 2016.02.10 07:38:19 -
[97] - Quote
Cipher Jones wrote:Quote:In conclusion, it is not a profitable operation since you must fuel the farming account with approximatively 2200M ISK per year. Did i miss something? Is my undersatnading of the situation correct? Yeah, not everyone needs more SP. If you are a mission runner with all 5's in marauders and strategic cruisers and support skills, you can just sell off your SP that you earn. Or a station trader with max trading skills and rep. Basically, all sub cap pilots that dont want to be cap pilots only need a few years training to max out what they do.
This is true but the number of people who have active training alts who don't need SP + don't want to inject the SP themselves is not going to produce enough SP to satisfy demand, and is likely anyway to be a small number even if they didn't just inject the SP into their own chars
The thing is, demand is not going away but supply almost certainly will shrink dramatically Since 2003, supply in the form of poorly trained characters and unwanted mining skills has been building Yesterday, the dam broke and that supply was unleashed on the market In the coming weeks, the flood will become a trickle It will take 2-3 months for SP farming alts to get over 5.5m SP and start extracting
The result: skill injectors are likely to rise in price in the intervening period, probably quite dramatically as nothing can be done to produce more SP in that time to satisfy demand, no matter how high prices get
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Ria Nieyli
40548
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Posted - 2016.02.10 08:13:33 -
[98] - Quote
Teckos Pech wrote:Interesting, looks like SP will be settling at about 680-700 ISK/SP in Jita....so far.
And initial large supply could be driving the price that low....will be curious to see how it goes forward.
Looks like the overall effect on PLEX has been fairly minimal, as well. Maybe a 10% boost in the cost of a PLEX so far.
People are dumping PLEX on the market so the could afford injectors. |
Dyllan Ma'tar
Signal Cartel EvE-Scout Enclave
10
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Posted - 2016.02.10 08:16:16 -
[99] - Quote
Kalgeroth wrote:Cipher Jones wrote:Quote:In conclusion, it is not a profitable operation since you must fuel the farming account with approximatively 2200M ISK per year. Did i miss something? Is my undersatnading of the situation correct? Yeah, not everyone needs more SP. If you are a mission runner with all 5's in marauders and strategic cruisers and support skills, you can just sell off your SP that you earn. Or a station trader with max trading skills and rep. Basically, all sub cap pilots that dont want to be cap pilots only need a few years training to max out what they do. It will take 2-3 months for SP farming alts to get over 5.5m SP and start extracting
This is assuming there aren't characters being used as SP mules that are already at the 5 mil SP minimum, meaning the time it will take will be the time to train 500k SP. So there will be a core of players that have pulled SP from alts and will be using those alts as mules, surrounded by those who are just getting into the SP farming game. Your not wrong, but that trickle is going to be a bit thicker then your current reasoning is accounting for.
> Do not stubbornly rebel against the ways of the world. Do not mindlessly follow the ways of the world. Think lightly of yourself and think deeply of the world. You can abandon your own body, but never let go of your honor. Miyamoto Musashi, Dokkodo
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iBLACK MAMBA
Garoun Investment Bank Gallente Federation
7
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Posted - 2016.02.10 08:30:33 -
[100] - Quote
Yesterday, I made 85bn profit thanks to SP price speculation.
I don't mind sharing how I did that, because in all honesty, it can never be repeated.
A few months ago, I started buying up cheap characters on sell forum. I would only consider characters with price of 300k per million SP or less - a price now impossible to attain as people understand the value of extracted skills.
I got some colossal bargains, sometimes paying as little as 220k per 1m SP. Yesterday, I extracted over 120million skillpoints from these characters. According to CCP that is 0.4% of the total SP extracted.
I then purchased from the market and converted 48 plex into AUR, to buy extractors, which was the most ISK efficient way of converting. This provided me with 210 extractors for a price of 270m each. I bought the rest from the market at 290m.
All in all, I invested 35bn in character purchases, 35bn in plex, and 8.5bn in extractors directly from market.
Total investment: 78.5bn The market value of the extractors is: 163bn
Not bad for a days work My only regret is not getting more accounts to buy up more cheap characters when I could.
However, as indicited by posters above, I now think there will be good ISK to be made in the rising value of the injectors as supply starts to shrink. So I've kept some aside for a rainy day just for that purpose.
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Kalgeroth
Imperial Shipment Amarr Empire
39
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Posted - 2016.02.10 08:34:09 -
[101] - Quote
Dyllan Ma'tar wrote: This is assuming there aren't characters being used as SP mules that are already at the 5 mil SP minimum, meaning the time it will take will be the time to train 500k SP.
You're absolutely right, there will be, however it's fair to say that this supply is far slower moving and much smaller than the initial flood of 13 years of unwanted skills. It can't flex to meet price spikes.
There will be a disconnect between supply and pricing, an in-elasticity which I think it's fair to say could lead to a colossal price bubble in the coming weeks or months. |
Kalgeroth
Imperial Shipment Amarr Empire
39
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Posted - 2016.02.10 08:38:22 -
[102] - Quote
I wouldn't be surprised if others also made a lot of ISK yesterday, buying up cheap characters when they could and reselling the SP
you can't do it anymore as people have realised the value of the SP, but i suspect some individuals are much richer today than they were yesterday |
Ria Nieyli
40550
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Posted - 2016.02.10 08:48:13 -
[103] - Quote
Kalgeroth wrote:Dyllan Ma'tar wrote: This is assuming there aren't characters being used as SP mules that are already at the 5 mil SP minimum, meaning the time it will take will be the time to train 500k SP.
You're absolutely right, there will be, however it's fair to say that this supply is far slower moving and much smaller than the initial flood of 13 years of unwanted skills. It can't flex to meet price spikes. There will be a disconnect between supply and pricing, an in-elasticity which I think it's fair to say could lead to a colossal price bubble in the coming weeks or months.
No bubble coming. The initial demand was so high that the traded plex was 3.5 times higher than normal. Why? People wanted skill injectors. Now that those people have them, demand will drop off sharply. |
Chasida
Instant Annihilation
0
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Posted - 2016.02.10 08:53:32 -
[104] - Quote
But who is buying all these injectors?! Any high skill char has little use for them, the gained skills are low for high skill chars compared to the cost, so the return will be rather small.
The only use I can see for this is low skill alts. Not even new players are likely the buyers, because they will not have the ISK to buy them.
Or are some people just hoarding the injectors, to speculate in ISK? If so I fear they will burn themselves...
I do understand who all the sellers are, but I do not understand who all the buyers (and users) are! As I said only logical buyers U can come up with are low skill alts for players with A LOT of ISK. |
Ria Nieyli
40550
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Posted - 2016.02.10 08:54:42 -
[105] - Quote
Chasida wrote:But who is buying all these injectors?! Any high skill char has little use for them, the gained skills are low for high skill chars compared to the cost, so the return will be rather small.
The only use I can see for this is low skill alts. Not even new players are likely the buyers, because they will not have the ISK to buy them.
Or are some people just hoarding the injectors, to speculate in ISK? If so I fear they will burn themselves...
I do understand who all the sellers are, but I do not understand who all the buyers (and users) are! As I said only logical buyers U can come up with are low skill alts for players with A LOT of ISK.
According to the official metric, the majority of injectors were used by characters under 50m sp. What they did was dump plex on the market to come up with their isk. Oh well. |
Kalgeroth
Imperial Shipment Amarr Empire
39
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Posted - 2016.02.10 08:56:09 -
[106] - Quote
Ria Nieyli wrote:
No bubble coming. The initial demand was so high that the traded plex was 3.5 times higher than normal. Why? People wanted skill injectors. Now that those people have them, demand will drop off sharply.
What happens when they want that next ship, a FAX or Carrier, or to get Capital Turret 5 on their dread so they can get top damage? There is always 'the next thing'.
You assume that people want certain skills and they got them all yesterday. Done deal, no more. If you will forgive me saying so, that seems like a very silly suggestion and I cannot imagine being anywhere near the truth. |
Chasida
Instant Annihilation
0
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Posted - 2016.02.10 08:57:50 -
[107] - Quote
Ria Nieyli wrote:Chasida wrote:But who is buying all these injectors?! Any high skill char has little use for them, the gained skills are low for high skill chars compared to the cost, so the return will be rather small.
The only use I can see for this is low skill alts. Not even new players are likely the buyers, because they will not have the ISK to buy them.
Or are some people just hoarding the injectors, to speculate in ISK? If so I fear they will burn themselves...
I do understand who all the sellers are, but I do not understand who all the buyers (and users) are! As I said only logical buyers U can come up with are low skill alts for players with A LOT of ISK. According to the official metric, the majority of injectors were used by characters under 50m sp. What they did was dump plex on the market to come up with their isk. Oh well.
Then why didnt the Plex price go down if a lot of people were dumping Plex? It should have gone down, instead it went a little bit up. |
Kalgeroth
Imperial Shipment Amarr Empire
39
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Posted - 2016.02.10 08:59:11 -
[108] - Quote
Chasida wrote:
Or are some people just hoarding the injectors, to speculate in ISK? If so I fear they will burn themselves...
According to CCP, 30bn was extracted yesterday and 24bn was injected. So there isn't much hoarding going on when you account for the injectors sitting on the market.
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Ria Nieyli
40550
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Posted - 2016.02.10 08:59:17 -
[109] - Quote
Chasida wrote:Then why didnt the Plex price go down if a lot of people were dumping Plex? It should have gone down, instead it went a little bit up.
Because people were mass converting plex to extractors.
Kalgeroth wrote:What happens when they want that next ship, a FAX or Carrier, or to get Capital Turret 5 on their dread so they can get top damage? There is always 'the next thing'. You assume that people want certain skills and they got them all yesterday. Done deal, no more. If you will forgive me saying so, that seems like a very silly suggestion and I cannot imagine being anywhere near the truth.
Except that they already have their next thing. And yes, people want certain skills and they're getting them now. Or got them yesterday. The more SP you have, the less you need to buy, so naturally the demand will drop sharply. Which part of that are you unable to understand? |
Kalgeroth
Imperial Shipment Amarr Empire
39
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Posted - 2016.02.10 09:06:38 -
[110] - Quote
Ria Nieyli wrote:[
Except that they already have their next thing. And yes, people want certain skills and they're getting them now. Or got them yesterday. The more SP you have, the less you need to buy, so naturally the demand will drop sharply. Which part of that are you unable to understand?
My dear Ria, by your..ahem..'logic', people would have one training goal forever and then simply stop training forever once they reach it. Clearly that is not the case
Aspirations change, alliance doctrines change, new ships or modules get introduced, there is rebalancing. The constant evolution of EVE and the constant shifting of peoples prefereces guarentees a market for injectors for as long as the servers are online.
And given the price of injectors, the notion that yesterday suddenly every player in EVE recieved all the SP they ever need is clearly a very, very silly idea indeed. Back of the class for you and no treats at playtime. |
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Kalgeroth
Imperial Shipment Amarr Empire
39
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Posted - 2016.02.10 09:13:40 -
[111] - Quote
LET'S BREAK THIS DOWN
There are, what, 250,000 active accounts? Let's assume an average of 2 chars on each account = 500,000 active chars 21bn SP was injected yesterday. That's 42,000 SP for each char
Barely enough for Racial Frigate IV
Somehow I don't think the market for SP is exhausted quite yet. |
Ria Nieyli
40550
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Posted - 2016.02.10 09:14:43 -
[112] - Quote
Kalgeroth wrote:Aspirations change, alliance doctrines change, new ships or modules get introduced, there is rebalancing. The constant evolution of EVE and the constant shifting of peoples prefereces guarentees a market for injectors for as long as the servers are online. And given the price of injectors, the notion that yesterday suddenly every player in EVE recieved all the SP they ever need is clearly a very, very silly idea indeed. Back of the class for you and no treats at playtime.
Well if you want to stick your head in the sand and ignore reality, that's fine too. |
iBLACK MAMBA
Garoun Investment Bank Gallente Federation
7
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Posted - 2016.02.10 09:22:10 -
[113] - Quote
I'm no economist, but it seems that the people who think there could be a temporary price bubble are onto something and there is good reason for believing that. For 13 years, you've had unwanted skills building up and people could, for the first time, sell those for ISK yesterday. This is a one-off event, never to be repeated.
That flood of supply will mean the market for injectors is currently not typical of how it will play out in the long-term. The market WILL change. It's reasonable and logical to assume that the reduction in supply will lead to a price increase.
It's not guaranteed, of course, but it is the most sensible conclusion I've read so far. |
Ria Nieyli
40550
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Posted - 2016.02.10 09:24:31 -
[114] - Quote
iBLACK MAMBA wrote:I'm no economist, but it seems that the people who think there could be a temporary price bubble are onto something and there is good reason for believing that. For 13 years, you've had unwanted skills building up and people could, for the first time, sell those for ISK yesterday. This is a one-off event, never to be repeated.
That flood of supply will mean the market for injectors is currently not typical of how it will play out in the long-term. The market WILL change. It's reasonable and logical to assume that the reduction in supply will lead to a price increase.
It's not guaranteed, of course, but it is the most sensible conclusion I've read so far.
And in the same vein, yesterday was the first time people could buy SP piecemeal like this, so there was a huge demand boom. This is a one-off event, never to be repeated.
You say that reduction in supply will hike the price, but in reality, there'll be a reduction in demand. Injector price can be directly tied to PLEX, however, so it will keep trailing behind it. |
Kalgeroth
Imperial Shipment Amarr Empire
39
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Posted - 2016.02.10 09:25:27 -
[115] - Quote
Ria Nieyli wrote:
You seem to be assuming a whole lot with no proof whatsoever. In fact, part of the supply comes from older characters getting rid of unwanted skills, yet you assume they used injectors. And what's more you assume that those SAME people will keep injecting.
None of that is accurate.
I quoted some figures and made a reasonable assumption based on it. I don't know if I am right or not, but I do believe that I will be right based on the reasons I've stated.
Time will tell. If prices start increasing after 7 days and an upward trend is apparent through to 2-3 months, I will be proved correct. Let's see how the market plays out. I don't know why you're so offended by my predictions but feel free to make your own, and then time will prove us right or wrong |
Ria Nieyli
40550
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Posted - 2016.02.10 09:28:13 -
[116] - Quote
Kalgeroth wrote:Ria Nieyli wrote:
You seem to be assuming a whole lot with no proof whatsoever. In fact, part of the supply comes from older characters getting rid of unwanted skills, yet you assume they used injectors. And what's more you assume that those SAME people will keep injecting.
None of that is accurate. I quoted some figures and made a reasonable assumption based on it. I don't know if I am right or not, but I do believe that I will be right based on the reasons I've stated. Time will tell. If prices start increasing after 7 days and an upward trend is apparent through to 2-3 months, I will be proved correct. Let's see how the market plays out. I don't know why you're so offended by my predictions but feel free to make your own, and then time will prove us right or wrong
Yes, it is accurate. If you think I'm offended, let me remind you that you're the one making bellitling remarks.
Injector price is tied to PLEX price and will crawl behind it. That's it. End of story. No bubble. Period. It's that simple. Your reasonable assumptions don't hold water. You claim that people who got rid of unwanted SP sold it on the market, then bought injectors back and used them. |
iBLACK MAMBA
Garoun Investment Bank Gallente Federation
7
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Posted - 2016.02.10 09:29:12 -
[117] - Quote
Ria Nieyli wrote:
And in the same vein, yesterday was the first time people could buy SP piecemeal like this, so there was a huge demand boom. This is a one-off event, never to be repeated.
You say that reduction in supply will hike the price, but in reality, there'll be a reduction in demand. Injector price can be directly tied to PLEX, however, so it will keep trailing behind it.
I see your point, however the demand is elastic while the supply is inelastic. This is what could lead to a price bubble. In other words, it's possible (and feasible) for demand to remain high, but it's impossible for supply to remain as high (certainly not in the short-term at least).
Is a price bubble possible because of this? Absolutely, it is. Will it happen? Not sure. I think prices will rise but won't get too out of hand. I'm predicting 800-900m for a few months before dropping back to 750m after 3 months or so. |
Ria Nieyli
40550
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Posted - 2016.02.10 09:34:25 -
[118] - Quote
iBLACK MAMBA wrote:Ria Nieyli wrote:
And in the same vein, yesterday was the first time people could buy SP piecemeal like this, so there was a huge demand boom. This is a one-off event, never to be repeated.
You say that reduction in supply will hike the price, but in reality, there'll be a reduction in demand. Injector price can be directly tied to PLEX, however, so it will keep trailing behind it.
I see your point, however the demand is elastic while the supply is inelastic. This is what could lead to a price bubble. In other words, it's possible (and feasible) for demand to remain high, but it's impossible for supply to remain as high (certainly not in the short-term at least).
Why? There's a lot of cheap characters on the bazaar that can be gutted. There'll be people having SP farm alts as well.
Meanwhile, the majority of people that wanted skills already bought. Consumer interest would be a trickle after the initial market boom. |
iBLACK MAMBA
Garoun Investment Bank Gallente Federation
7
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Posted - 2016.02.10 09:39:42 -
[119] - Quote
Ria Nieyli wrote:
Why? There's a lot of cheap characters on the bazaar that can be gutted. There'll be people having SP farm alts as well.
Meanwhile, the majority of people that wanted skills already bought. Consumer interest would be a trickle after the initial market boom.
Sadly there are no cheap characters on the bazaar any more, not since people understand the value of extracted skill points. Trust me as I made good ISK buying cheap chars a few months ago. It's no longer possible. Maybe small profits if you're lucky, nothing spectacular. But I don't think SP is like buying a car or shiny new phone - buy it once and be happy with it. These things will be in constant demand by people who are impatient to train quickly, and the price will be driven not my logical and rational individuals like you and I, but my emotion and impatience. So the price could become highly irrational and detached from common sense.
The truth though is that demand is elastic and supply is inelastic, no matter our opinion on anything else, and this means that a price bubble is possible. Anyway, I'm not invested in this, I've made my ISK. Good luck to all parties involved.
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Ria Nieyli
40550
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Posted - 2016.02.10 09:45:04 -
[120] - Quote
iBLACK MAMBA wrote:Ria Nieyli wrote:
Why? There's a lot of cheap characters on the bazaar that can be gutted. There'll be people having SP farm alts as well.
Meanwhile, the majority of people that wanted skills already bought. Consumer interest would be a trickle after the initial market boom.
Sadly there are no cheap characters on the bazaar any more, not since people understand the value of extracted skill points. Trust me as I made good ISK buying cheap chars a few months ago. It's no longer possible. Maybe small profits if you're lucky, nothing spectacular. But I don't think SP is like buying a car or shiny new phone - buy it once and be happy with it. These things will be in constant demand by people who are impatient to train quickly, and the price will be driven not my logical and rational individuals like you and I, but my emotion and impatience. So the price could become highly irrational and detached from common sense. The truth though is that demand is elastic and supply is inelastic, no matter our opinion on anything else, and this means that a price bubble is possible. Anyway, I'm not invested in this, I've made my ISK. Good luck to all parties involved.
The 800-900m range you indicated in your previous post would hardly be indicative of a price bubble, however. |
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