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Maze La'Zie
Caldari Technology La'Zie
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Posted - 2007.02.22 10:32:00 -
[1]
In the latest Dev blog on the issue, CCP have implied that T2 BPOs will remain in-game.
Originally by: Oveur The end result is an inefficient copy still providing an edge with an original, but preventing market dominance and carteling
However, there are still many vehement calls to get rid of all T2 originals or convert them to BPCs.
So...
Will you be buying or selling T2 BPOs? Can we expect the prices to fall?
My guess would be an increase in trades at least as the risk-averse reduce their exposure to the nerf-bat. ___________________ Chief Scientific Officer Technology La'Zie Author of The End |
Wagner84
Minmatar Secteur Armement
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Posted - 2007.02.22 11:26:00 -
[2]
My vision :
- T2 BPOs (and good BPCs) prices will raise. - T2 modules prices will fall, to block the new "buiding process" 's market that is invention.
-------------------------------------------------- Try the Minmatar way of life. |
Harisdrop
Gallente ClanKillers Dusk and Dawn
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Posted - 2007.02.22 16:46:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Harisdrop on 22/02/2007 16:43:25 Two factors in Eve are constant.
Player base will increase.
Players will get skills to use tech II components.
After almost 4 years these have been steady. Demand for tech has increased. You can never manufacture enough to lower the prices. You can not invent enough.
Prices will increase as the need for more tech II inherantly increases.
Nothing you can do will stop it. If there is 300 on the market they can be priced at anything. They will sell. No price competition. Time is the only variable.
*snip* you signature may not exceed 24000 - Kreul Intentions ([email protected]) |
Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.02.22 17:23:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Wagner84 My vision :
- T2 BPOs (and good BPCs) prices will raise. - T2 modules prices will fall, to block the new "buiding process" 's market that is invention.
This is such a silly post. The two points completely contradict each other. BPO prices are directly linked to the amount of money you can make by producing and selling that particular T2 module for X number of months. If T2 module prices drop (which they have already) then the T2 BPO's price drops by the same amount. T2 prices have dropped as much as 20-40% on some items if not more and only 5-10% on other items.
But to assume that BPO prices will rise as mod prices drop shows a complete lack of understanding of the T2 market.
As to the second persons post. I must disagree as well. He makes the claim that supply is no issue for T2 items, demand is always greater than supply. This is not true. The entire basis for T2 prices is the lack of supply. Prices are holding steady at exactly the point where demand meets supply. As soon as supply increases it will cause the two curves to meet at a lower point, thus lowering prices. If you don't believe me then look at Invuln Field II's, Expanded Cargohold II's, or almost any other T2 module.
A few T2 modules have increased in price recently... generally ones that enhance the new Tier3 BC's or Tier2 BS's that were released. Even those are starting to drop from their high prices though.
I have the money to invest in multiple T2 BPO's or some of the best ones and I refuse to... it is WAY too risky at this point in time. There is no guarantee any of the prices will hold even remotely steady. But every T2 BPO owner is going to claim otherwise.. their entire wallet depends on people believing prices will hold steady. There are a couple of IPO's out there that would absolutely crash and burn if T2 prices plummeted, so they have to convince everyone not to panic. But prices will continue to drop until the new levels of supply equals the levels of demand for that many items.
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Jalen Rose
Bre-X Heavy Industries
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Posted - 2007.02.23 01:29:00 -
[5]
Yeah as a person who got a t2 bpo in the reseed I'm already seeing effects of the reseed. In the 1.5 months of owning the bpo prices have falling about 30% and are continueing to drop on the item i now produce. CCP hasn't said how many of the bpo's were reseeded and it now seems that there were quite a few put into the agent que's.
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Wagner84
Minmatar Secteur Armement
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Posted - 2007.02.23 01:33:00 -
[6]
Ok I was wrong, this is what I really think !
T2 BPOs have no price, they should even not be sold by their owners ! I've got 2 of them, they will never leave my hangar !
-------------------------------------------------- Try the Minmatar way of life. |
Emofilia
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Posted - 2007.02.23 10:27:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Wagner84 Ok I was wrong, this is what I really think !
T2 BPOs have no price, they should even not be sold by their owners ! I've got 2 of them, they will never leave my hangar !
can i have your stuff when you will leave the game ?
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Wagner84
Minmatar Secteur Armement
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Posted - 2007.02.23 12:17:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Emofilia can i have your stuff when you will leave the game ?
lol !
If you're still there why not.
-------------------------------------------------- Try the Minmatar way of life. |
Ulrich Sternaxe
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Posted - 2007.02.23 13:17:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Wagner84 Ok I was wrong, this is what I really think !
T2 BPOs have no price, they should even not be sold by their owners ! I've got 2 of them, they will never leave my hangar !
Does this mean that you're not using them at the moment? Don't you think that's a waste? I would love to be able to produce tech II but I'm not so lucky to have them or be able to buy them for quite a while.
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Plim
Gallente Celestial Apocalypse Insurgency
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Posted - 2007.02.23 14:57:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Harisdrop Edited by: Harisdrop on 22/02/2007 16:43:25 Two factors in Eve are constant.
Player base will increase.
Players will get skills to use tech II components.
After almost 4 years these have been steady. Demand for tech has increased. You can never manufacture enough to lower the prices. You can not invent enough.
Prices will increase as the need for more tech II inherantly increases.
Nothing you can do will stop it. If there is 300 on the market they can be priced at anything. They will sell. No price competition. Time is the only variable.
Yeah I wish that was true ----------------- signature removed - please email us to find out why (include a link) - Jacques([email protected]) Hi, can you get CCP to remove T20 from the dev team too? Thanks. |
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Wagner84
Minmatar Secteur Armement
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Posted - 2007.02.23 15:30:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Ulrich Sternaxe Does this mean that you're not using them at the moment? Don't you think that's a waste? I would love to be able to produce tech II but I'm not so lucky to have them or be able to buy them for quite a while.
lol ! Of course they are in use, they always are.
-------------------------------------------------- Try the Minmatar way of life. |
Ulrich Sternaxe
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Posted - 2007.02.23 15:42:00 -
[12]
ah, OK, that makes me feel better
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Harisdrop
Gallente ClanKillers Dusk and Dawn
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Posted - 2007.02.23 16:12:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Plim
Yeah I wish that was true
The answer is time. If you need return in 3 months you are correct you must compete with current prices.
If you have years to play this game you can price it and people will pay for it if your competition stops producing in your region. The only competition is those that buy to resell. Therefore just based on you sticking to your price you only compete with yourself and other owners. Owners will spread out and find locals demanding items.
*snip* you signature may not exceed 24000 - Kreul Intentions ([email protected]) |
Rasta Farian
Rasta Tropical Club
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Posted - 2007.02.24 09:30:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Harisdrop Edited by: Harisdrop on 22/02/2007 16:43:25 Two factors in Eve are constant.
Player base will increase.
Players will get skills to use tech II components.
The first factor is far from constant. Sure it has been increasing since the launch of EVE but lately i ainŠt seeing any increase. The last records achieved of online players are from last year i think.
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Dr Isk
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Posted - 2007.02.24 11:08:00 -
[15]
Time is up! at yesterdays bpo prices risk just went thru the roof. Lets watch them all go for sale for the next month over and over again. Who wants to be first to lose? - Not me, my dog will be p00ping on a pile of t2 bpos next patch.
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Little Girly
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Posted - 2007.02.24 17:58:00 -
[16]
More and more players train to use T2 over time, eve got a lot of new players recently, as time goes by more and more of them train for and start buying T2 items.
Since no more T2 bpos will be given out the price of them will only increase. T2 bpo is the best investment in EVE.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.02.24 22:31:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Little Girly More and more players train to use T2 over time, eve got a lot of new players recently, as time goes by more and more of them train for and start buying T2 items.
Since no more T2 bpos will be given out the price of them will only increase. T2 bpo is the best investment in EVE.
The only people who would make this claim are people who own T2 BPO's and don't want to lose their massive asset. If you've read the Dev Blogs you know that they are slowly working on removing T2 BPO's from the game... they want people to use invention in the future, so they will continue to make invention better and easier until it becomes the primary method for producing T2.
This leaves no future for T2 BPO's. Sure they are still great to have today... but every day they become slightly less great and we still havn't even gotten all the BPO's out of the re-seed. There are still more to flood the market with. That's amazing because prices are dropping like bricks in several fields. Previously ultra expensive items are really dropping fast... and they are pulling down named T1 at the same time.
If anyone honestly thinks T2 BPO's are a good investment then speak with your wallet and buy some up... I have enough to buy a lot and there isn't a chance in hell of me doing it. If I could get a T2 BPO at 1/2 price I wouldn't do it, they won't be worth even that in a few months in my estimation. Command Ships, Hulks, etc may hold their price to some degrees... but thats about it I believe.
Tanking Setups Compared
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Extregar Qvint
Caldari JuBa Corp
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Posted - 2007.02.25 23:25:00 -
[18]
Well i dint see anything in the dev blog to suggest removing of the bpos in the future. That was mainly voiced for in the comments. All i saw was a suggestion to stop the lottery after the scheduled bpos have been given out, then tweak invention further.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.02.26 08:15:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Extregar Qvint Well i dint see anything in the dev blog to suggest removing of the bpos in the future. That was mainly voiced for in the comments. All i saw was a suggestion to stop the lottery after the scheduled bpos have been given out, then tweak invention further.
"Looking forward, perhaps the solution is simply stopping this original work and allowing reserarching of the copies from invention to make the them efficient after the invention process?"
That is straight out of the blog. "stopping this original work" is the key part of it.
T2 BPO's may be killed off eventually... thus anyone buying T2 BPO's is insane. IMO the T2 market is going to crash really badly based on that statement... expectations are the only thing keeping T2 BPO prices where they are, if there is no future then down she goes.
Tanking Setups Compared
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Skarsnik
Caldari A.W.M Ka-Tet
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Posted - 2007.02.26 15:36:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Extregar Qvint Well i dint see anything in the dev blog to suggest removing of the bpos in the future. That was mainly voiced for in the comments. All i saw was a suggestion to stop the lottery after the scheduled bpos have been given out, then tweak invention further.
"Looking forward, perhaps the solution is simply stopping this original work and allowing reserarching of the copies from invention to make the them efficient after the invention process?"
That is straight out of the blog. "stopping this original work" is the key part of it.
T2 BPO's may be killed off eventually... thus anyone buying T2 BPO's is insane. IMO the T2 market is going to crash really badly based on that statement... expectations are the only thing keeping T2 BPO prices where they are, if there is no future then down she goes.
At the moment it is as the title of the thread suggests, speculation. Whilst you are saying the key words are "stopping the original work", to me that says "Perhaps the solution is simply stopping original work", now this both has connotations of 'it may or may not happen' and also 'if it does happen originals may stay and we wont realease anymore BPO's in future' or even 'if it does happen originals may be converted/changed to bpc's or antoher solution'
In my mind CCP have one thing on their side with this, and that is time. With time people leave the game never to return and thus the BPO's start to leave the cycle of being used, it could be there is a natural 'loss' of prints over time in which they never really have to c hange them. But as always blogs are just that, blogs, they never really have conctrete things in them as the plan almost definatly changes over time. -------------
EVE-Ink Tattoo Project |
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.02.26 17:51:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Skarsnik
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Extregar Qvint Well i dint see anything in the dev blog to suggest removing of the bpos in the future. That was mainly voiced for in the comments. All i saw was a suggestion to stop the lottery after the scheduled bpos have been given out, then tweak invention further.
"Looking forward, perhaps the solution is simply stopping this original work and allowing reserarching of the copies from invention to make the them efficient after the invention process?"
That is straight out of the blog. "stopping this original work" is the key part of it.
T2 BPO's may be killed off eventually... thus anyone buying T2 BPO's is insane. IMO the T2 market is going to crash really badly based on that statement... expectations are the only thing keeping T2 BPO prices where they are, if there is no future then down she goes.
At the moment it is as the title of the thread suggests, speculation. Whilst you are saying the key words are "stopping the original work", to me that says "Perhaps the solution is simply stopping original work", now this both has connotations of 'it may or may not happen' and also 'if it does happen originals may stay and we wont realease anymore BPO's in future' or even 'if it does happen originals may be converted/changed to bpc's or antoher solution'
In my mind CCP have one thing on their side with this, and that is time. With time people leave the game never to return and thus the BPO's start to leave the cycle of being used, it could be there is a natural 'loss' of prints over time in which they never really have to c hange them. But as always blogs are just that, blogs, they never really have conctrete things in them as the plan almost definatly changes over time.
Of course it is just speculation... that is the title of the thread. If you're going to speculate you have to acknowledge all the info the devs have put out... and one of those things is that T2 BPO's may dissappear. Speculation is a key factor in T2 BPO prices... thus anyone who buys them now should acknowledge the chance they are throwing their money down a drain.
Tanking Setups Compared
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Ash Donai
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Posted - 2007.02.26 22:54:00 -
[22]
I see T2 BPO prices rise in anticipation of the nerf.
However, call me silly, but I trust that CCP will make EVE easier and part of that is going to be a straight forward and affordable Invention process that will make current BPOs essentially obsolete as time goes on.
On the one hand you have people who after nearly 4 years of playing EVE have more cash than they could possibly spend bidding on BPOs. They are irrational buyers, not bound by the market value of the BPO, they bid on it because they want it, and they don't care if it will ever become profitable. On the other hand you have people who are looking to turn a profit. Those folks will have to seriously consider what they do in coming weeks. With BPO prices where they are at it is next to impossible to recoup the investment in 6 months. No one knows what will happen when Invention gets fixed. Though it is fair to say that those who buy BPOs for production still have the BPO and can still produce at whatever profit per unit, so their money is not lost.
On the third hand (mutant!) you have BPO speculators who buy BPOs for resale. Those folks are the most vulnerable to this change. I believe that BPO prices will go down after the Invention fix, so if I had speculative BPOs, I would unload them before the fix when prices are on the way up fueled by those who believe BPOs will become the holy grail (more so than they already are).
Look at MMO history, and look at EVE history. Games get easier as time goes on to provide more of an incentive to retain or possibly enlarge the player base. Characters now start with 900,000 sp, and several level 5 skills. Making ISK as a noob, or as any player, is easier than ever. One of the main complaints from customers is the lottery system (which was a screwed up idea from the very start), it will be removed, and everyone will be given easy access to T2 technology, there is no doubt in my mind that this will happen. It will come at an ISK cost, no doubt, but again, ISK is easy to make.
Incidentally, imagine what will happen to the value of data cores. Sure they sell well now, 20mil+, but once they are actually useful people will outbid each other to just be able to get them.
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Cainex
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Posted - 2007.02.27 01:33:00 -
[23]
Can you imagine what its like to have someone disect every word of every sentence that you type. I have read a lot of forum posts in a ton of games where people try to look for every nuance in a dev blog etc. I am not saying its wrong to read into what they say....
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.02.27 02:14:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Cainex Can you imagine what its like to have someone disect every word of every sentence that you type. I have read a lot of forum posts in a ton of games where people try to look for every nuance in a dev blog etc. I am not saying its wrong to read into what they say....
True enough in some cases... but in this case the entire tone of the blog is that T2 BPO's were a mistake and invention is the wave of the future. Then having a sentence that Originals could be removed at some point is very much on topic and likely something that is being thought about.
Tanking Setups Compared
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Rawne Karrde
Constructive Influence
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Posted - 2007.02.27 04:10:00 -
[25]
The reality is that CCP doesn't need to do anything with t2 bpo's. If they do turn them into high run copies etc. that would just **** off a group of players. Why do that when they can, Oveur hints in his blog, simply continue to tweak invention until the bpo's aren't as important anymore as people can make bpc just as easy. They do it that way and they don't **** of the t2 bpo holders as much. As Oveur also mentions that the advantage will be that the t2 bpo holder with have a bit better efficiency so that helps keep some margin but in the end will elimnate the large margins on the popular items.
to sum it up, CCP doesn't need to remove t2 bpo's, as they seem to be doing and will most likely keep doing is making invention easier and more rewarding in the coming months. Better way to do it imho.
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