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Block Ukx
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Posted - 2007.06.08 15:48:00 -
[1]
There have been a lot of discussions about the ôfairö market price of minerals [1-11]. This topic is very relevant and several individuals have come up with different schemes to track the mineral market [12-14]. According to the item database, mineral prices, which are used to determine insurance payouts, are Tritanium 2.00, Pyerite 8.00, Mexallon 32.00, Isogen 128.00, Nocxium 512.00, Zydrine 2,048.00, and Megacyte 8,192.00 [15].
Previously, I determined the mineral equilibrium price based in ore composition (Table 1) [16, 17]. One major shortcoming about the model is that it does not take into account minerals generated by reprocessing loot. To determine the equilibrium mineral prices due to loot recycling, I decided to measure the average Tritanium to other-minerals ratio (Table 2) of loot generated in level 4 missions. A friend of mine has been running level 4 missions in the Heimatar Region for quite sometime and has been providing me with all his loot to reprocess. I have perfect refining skills and high standing, so no mineral is wasted due to reprocessing.
For a Tritanium price of 2.50, the equilibrium mineral prices due to loot recycling are: Pyerite 5.82 Mexallon 17.15 Isogen 66.74 Nocxium 191.08 Zydrine 1,076.89 Megacyte 4,224.35
This numbers are not set in stone and are easily affected by changes to the type of loot dropped in missions, but when combine with the prices based on ore composition provide an extremely useful guide to determine ôfairö market prices. For instance, the drop in Zydrine prices that started 6 months ago should have been expected, since both the ore and the loot based prices were significantly lower than the price of Zydrine 6 months ago. The same can be said about Pyerite; prices are very likely to drop. Therefore IÆm selling all my excess Pyerite before this happens.
Tables
Mineral Price Tritanium 2.50 Pyerite 4.01 Mexallon 23.66 Isogen 69.26 Nocxium 413.58 Zydrine 1,810.58 Megacyte 1,943.45 Table 1: Equilibrium mineral prices based on ore composition and R=2.25 [16, 17].
Mineral Ratio Pyerite 2.3277 Mexallon 6.8592 Isogen 26.695 Nocxium 76.433 Zydrine 430.76 Megacyte 1689.7 Table 2: Average Tritanium/Mineral ratio of level 4 missions.
References [1] Minerals in empire... [2] NPC's buying minerals... [3] Time to increase Low End ORE Price [4] Stop mining and buy Zydrine... [5] Pyer at 9.50 [6] The Great Zyd Depression(tm) [7] mineral prices [8] Rise in mineral prices... [9] What's wrong the the mineral prices? [10] Pyerite capped at 9.01 ISK... [11] 0.0 mineral markets [12] Matari Mineral Index [13] Zydrine & Megacyte graph/data teaser [14] Market Data OCR Project
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Block Ukx
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Posted - 2007.06.08 15:50:00 -
[2]
[15] Item database mineral prices [16] BSAC Mineral Reserve Fund û low ends [17] BSAC Mineral Reserve Fund û high ends
Block Ukx BSAC President
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SencneS
Amarr Balsarferskratchin Inc Axiom Empire
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Posted - 2007.06.08 16:36:00 -
[3]
Did you consider Location when including "Missions" as a source.
For example... Sansha's seem to drop a LOT of smart bombs which are high in Nocxium, where as Guristas hardly drop any. (These are the normal rats, not the command types)
Take this for example.
Sasha will almost always have some sort of energy weapon in the loot.
Tachyon Beam Laser I (Amount Dropped) Tritanium102,492 Pyerite26,293 Mexallon8,772 Isogen2,385 Nocxium370 Zydrine19 Megacyte33 Total140,364
Which if you use CCP - base price is equal to this. Tritanium204,984 Pyerite210,344 Mexallon280,704 Isogen305,280 Nocxium189,440 Zydrine38,912 Megacyte270,336 Total1,500,000
But take a Guristas which will almost always drop a Siege Launcher Tritanium110 Pyerite1208 Mexallon0 Isogen0 Nocxium8 Zydrine2 Megacyte10 Total1338
CCP Base price. Tritanium220 Pyerite9664 Mexallon0 Isogen0 Nocxium4096 Zydrine4096 Megacyte81920 Total99996
If you're re-processing loot, you would rather reprocess a Sansha mission then a Guristas mission, so I hope you included multiple faction missions in that mix.
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Send ISK to SencneS for good Kama! |
Block Ukx
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Posted - 2007.06.08 17:00:00 -
[4]
Like I said, this analysis is based on level 4 missions in Heimatar, which I will assume is characteristic of the Minmatar Republic.
I'm in the process of doing a similar analysis for the loot dropped by rats in 0.0, and I will talk to a friend to give me the info for Amar level 4 missions. I will be very interested in obtaining the mineral ratios from other level 4 mission runners in non-Minmatar states.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.06.08 17:10:00 -
[5]
The big problem I see here is that you are sampling data as if there can be some sort of discernible pattern. When your possible range of error in a statistical analysis is +/-100% you are not doing statistical analysis.
You are just guesstimating.
Other that that, good stuff.
The Eve-Online forums may not have invented whining, but they sure have perfected it.
ElweSingollo> Eve is P v P not P v GM. |
Cudaya Ebsldes
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Posted - 2007.06.08 17:35:00 -
[6]
About 1 year ago when I was manufacturing the mins I used and their prices at the time: Trit 2.10 isk Pyerite 7.00 Mexallon 17.00 Isogen 105.00 Nocxium 420.00 Zydrine 3600.00 Megacyte 3900.00
I found an old spreadsheet from about 2 years ago:
Trit 1.75 Pyerite 3.50 Nocxium 350.00 Mexallon 8.00 Isogen 115.00 Zydrine 3800.00
But imo CCP doesn't pay any attention to this stuff. They just add "stuff." ISK to them is "stuff" to be manipulated along with all the other "stuff." They don't use an economic model. So ... good luck.
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Block Ukx
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Posted - 2007.06.08 17:43:00 -
[7]
Shar,
I donÆt think that the statistical errors are that big, and I donÆt have the information to calculate them. My friend has been cranking lots of missions to the point that he has repeated them several times. I tag along when I have the time, but he is very good at it. He gives me his loot to reprocess, so I couldnÆt tell you which missions he did and how many when he gives me a batch. All I can do is to compute the average ratios over a month worth of loot.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.06.08 17:54:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Block Ukx I donÆt think that the statistical errors are that big, and I donÆt have the information to calculate them.
That's the point I'm trying to make. The statistical error is possibly not as large as +/-100% however when you don't know, and can't know, the only proper assumption is ... +/-100%.
Why?
Because you actually don't know.
The Eve-Online forums may not have invented whining, but they sure have perfected it.
ElweSingollo> Eve is P v P not P v GM. |
Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.06.08 17:54:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Block Ukx Shar,
I donÆt think that the statistical errors are that big, and I donÆt have the information to calculate them. My friend has been cranking lots of missions to the point that he has repeated them several times. I tag along when I have the time, but he is very good at it. He gives me his loot to reprocess, so I couldnÆt tell you which missions he did and how many when he gives me a batch. All I can do is to compute the average ratios over a month worth of loot.
A few months ago I reprocessed something like 400 million isk worth of minerals from mission loot and I didn't reprocess any remotely sellable item. If only I had known I should have kept track of how many missions I ran in that time it would have been a good estimate of how much you can make per mission by reprocessing.
In any case.... simply getting an estimate of minerals from one part of space and then applying that to get standard mineral prices game wide is not a good strategy. In over a year of playing I got less minerals from looting every single mission I ran than a friend gets in a week of mining. Mining is where 95% of minerals come from imo.
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Erfnam
Time Cube Syndicate Legionnaire Services Ltd.
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Posted - 2007.06.08 18:00:00 -
[10]
Your analysis does not factor in the popularity of modules. There are a lot of modules that are never used, but others that are used quite often. You also cannot properly factor in laziness. Regardless of any numbers you run or things you try to factor in, "fair" market price is what the consumer is willing to spend. Sales: Capital Ships | Covetors Delivered - Bulk/Package/BYOM |
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Block Ukx
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Posted - 2007.06.08 18:08:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Shadarle
Mining is where 95% of minerals come from imo.
I thought that my self too, but that statement cannot be supported by the data. Current prices in Heimatar clearly indicate that in Heimatar, most minerals come from recycling, not mining.
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Block Ukx
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Posted - 2007.06.08 18:11:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Erfnam Your analysis does not factor in the popularity of modules.
Erfnam, You are correct. IÆm only looking at the supply side of the equation.
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Block Ukx
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Posted - 2007.06.08 18:44:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
That's the point I'm trying to make. The statistical error is possibly not as large as +/-100% however when you don't know, and can't know, the only proper assumption is ... +/-100%. Why? Because you actually don't know.
At this time, we were not able to provide statistical errors on these measurements. We are currently collecting more data to properly determine the statistical errors. Anything else is pure speculation.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2007.06.08 19:19:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Block Ukx
Originally by: Shadarle
Mining is where 95% of minerals come from imo.
I thought that my self too, but that statement cannot be supported by the data. Current prices in Heimatar clearly indicate that in Heimatar, most minerals come from recycling, not mining.
This model can be applied to many regions where the majority of systems are < .4 security status
However, they cannot be relied upon as a true litmus test of mineral prices because regions like Heimatar are easily influenced and manipulated by savy traders and miners.
I hate giving myself away but for the sake discussion....
.....A few weeks ago I imported 30mil mex at mean price of 15isk from 0.0 space into empire and dumped it into 5 regional markets at around 22 to 24 isk
I've since moved just about all of my volume and have seen almost no noticeable change in empire prices however the regions on which I imported from have had a dramatic price increase.
What was average around 15 is now around 20.
The best litmus test of min prices is still a heavy consumption mission heavy empire space as mins there will have the most velocity across the market and will be able to give you a better idea of where mins are moving, at what price they are moving, and what direction they will be moving. |
SencneS
Amarr Balsarferskratchin Inc Axiom Empire
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Posted - 2007.06.08 19:24:00 -
[15]
Although me chiming in doesn't count for much compared to other voices on this thread. I do think there is credibility to this type of research.
Considering a majority my ships, mods, and ammo come from Minerals I've collected from Looting rats or running missions. I think working out the value of minerals according to reprocessing loot is not only a good thing but probably large enough to effect the market.
Not that it would ever happen, if everyone kept the loot and didn't reprocess and sell the minerals it would have an effect on the market. That fact that after even a single level 1 mission you can have 1,000,000 Trit would indicate some effect on the market. And it would probably be larger then expected.
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Send ISK to SencneS for good Kama! |
Drayath
Gallente Orion Holdings Incorperated
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Posted - 2007.06.08 22:29:00 -
[16]
Another route to producing numbers may be as follows:
- Guesstimate (or properly research) average missions runner in game at any single point in game.
- Survey average runners looting there missions.
- Get a per point figures on average loot per hour
Try taking these (i would imagine only level 4 are particularly relevant)
loot_amount_per_day = 23 x average_runners x looter_ratio x loot_amount
If you can manage do the same thing for normal ratters and drone area ratters. Ideally you would want to break this down by mineral types. Theoretically this now gives a estimate of total non-mining mineral income per day.
Phase 2 is to try to produce a estimate (or exact numbers if you have a good set of market exports) of trade volume of the different minerals.
This should allow an analysis of % of market volume supplied by looters.
Now if there are any economic experts out there I would imagine the textbooks provide mechanisms to turn these numbers (+min/max price boundaries on each mineral) into price impact of the loot supply. Even without that you can probably at least make a rough finger in the air guess of price impact of removing the calculated volumes from the market, at least enough to help reduce the error range on your original numbers.
Drayath -
Love, beauty and profit to you all Gallente, forever free be.
Drayath |
Block Ukx
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Posted - 2007.06.15 14:35:00 -
[17]
To determine the statistical error in this analysis, I decided to use all the data I have regarding recycling. The following analysis included recycling 0.0 loot, lvl4 missions, and cheap market items. Sampling is still an issue. Here are the results for a 2.40 Tritanium price:
Pyerite 5.10 ¦ 0.80 Mexallon 16.70 ¦ 4.10 Isogen 69.68 ¦ 18.50 Nocxium 428.40 ¦ 263.40 Zydrine 2,937.00 ¦ 2,013.00 Megacyte 6,581.00 ¦ 4,566.00
IÆm still working on the sampling issue, but the results are quite interesting. With the new patch I wouldnÆt be surprise to see Zydrine prices in the 4,900 range. Interestingly, Pyerite appears to be very consistent across all the loot and has the smallest deviation. This highlights the possibility that someone has been manipulating its price, and that it is not possible to sustain the current market price. Expect Pyerite prices to drop.
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Vasiliyan
The Flying Swan
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Posted - 2007.06.15 15:46:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Block Ukx Interestingly, Pyerite appears to be very consistent across all the loot and has the smallest deviation. This highlights the possibility that someone has been manipulating its price, and that it is not possible to sustain the current market price. Expect Pyerite prices to drop.
I believe it's the manufacture of Myrmidons. Base BPO values are 642378 pye / 2885176 trit, which if I understand your maths implies a parity price of 11 for pyerite?
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Block Ukx
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Posted - 2007.06.15 16:16:00 -
[19]
Remember, IÆm looking at the equilibrium price and analyzing the supply side of the equation. Higher demand of certain items will move the market prices away from equilibrium.
If you could only supply the market with the minerals obtained by the melting of Myrs, then the Pyerite equilibrium price would be 10.77. But there are plenty of items out there that yield Pyerite.
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Dr Isk
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Posted - 2007.06.16 02:48:00 -
[20]
GL with your socialist equilibrium
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Wyehr
Shadow Of The Light R i s e
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Posted - 2007.06.16 14:54:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Dr Isk GL with your socialist equilibrium
wtf?
[ 2007.03.18 18:45:59 ] (notify) Typhoon belonging to Gandolf self-destructs. |
BSAC Manager
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Posted - 2007.06.17 22:57:00 -
[22]
Dr. Isk, For your information, equilibrium its found on FREE markets and it is not related to socialism. Please click here for more information on this topic.
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Augeas
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Posted - 2007.06.18 07:54:00 -
[23]
Quote: For your information, equilibrium its found on FREE markets and it is not related to socialism.
I think that's his point - that the concept of a "fair" price is absurd, because price is a product of the market. The socialist comment would refer to governmental intervention, setting arbitrary prices in an attempt to be "fair".
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Hohne
Antares Fleet Yards SMASH Alliance
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Posted - 2007.07.03 12:19:00 -
[24]
To a fairly great extent the value of minerals is based on the demand for them in ships and equipment as much as other things (though limited by insurance etc). Mex started on its huge spike up when T1 BCs were released, and then increased by an even bigger amount when Tier 2 BCs were released. I think alot of them have a higher percentage of mex than other ships..... (And they're pretty common).
Minerals from Loot/Drone Loot are fairly consistent in their ratios, people don't really get to choose what mineral they want from their loot. Mining on the other hand changes based on what mineral is 'in' at the moment.
For pricing you have to look at demand as much as supply, because even if there is 4x as much tritanium as pyerite if the demand is out there for pyerite only 1/2 as much as trit, the price of pyerite will go up etc....
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Block Ukx
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Posted - 2007.07.03 12:48:00 -
[25]
As a said before, IÆm looking at the equilibrium price and analyzing the supply side of the equation. Higher demand of certain items will move the market prices away from equilibrium.
The current Tritanium to Pyerite price ratio is inconsistent with the equilibrium supply. Meaning that as more Pyerite its supply to the current demand an excess of Tritanium and others minerals is building up.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.07.03 16:17:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Block Ukx Meaning that as more Pyerite is supplied to the current demand an excess of Tritanium and others minerals is building up.
Gotta love haywire markets. These are the times for cowboy traders and not the no-risk ones.
The Eve-Online forums may not have invented whining, but they sure have perfected it.
Shar Tegral> Well someone please say something quotable for this month!!!! |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2007.07.03 16:24:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Block Ukx Meaning that as more Pyerite is supplied to the current demand an excess of Tritanium and others minerals is building up.
Gotta love haywire markets. These are the times for cowboy traders and not the no-risk ones.
Indeed, just lost a bit playing trit in a region.
Think I caught the wave to early and will just have to ride the storm out |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.07.03 16:38:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria Think I caught the wave to early and will just have to ride the storm out
I'm sitting this one out simply because I don't have the time available to even eat popcorn during this. I am envious though.
Highly.
The Eve-Online forums may not have invented whining, but they sure have perfected it.
Shar Tegral> Well someone please say something quotable for this month!!!! |
Phrixus Zephyr
D00M. Triumvirate.
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Posted - 2007.07.05 12:00:00 -
[29]
Originally by: SencneS Did you consider Location when including "Missions" as a source.
For example... Sansha's seem to drop a LOT of smart bombs which are high in Nocxium, where as Guristas hardly drop any. (These are the normal rats, not the command types)
Take this for example.
Sasha will almost always have some sort of energy weapon in the loot.
Tachyon Beam Laser I (Amount Dropped) Tritanium102,492 Pyerite26,293 Mexallon8,772 Isogen2,385 Nocxium370 Zydrine19 Megacyte33 Total140,364
Which if you use CCP - base price is equal to this. Tritanium204,984 Pyerite210,344 Mexallon280,704 Isogen305,280 Nocxium189,440 Zydrine38,912 Megacyte270,336 Total1,500,000
But take a Guristas which will almost always drop a Siege Launcher Tritanium110 Pyerite1208 Mexallon0 Isogen0 Nocxium8 Zydrine2 Megacyte10 Total1338
CCP Base price. Tritanium220 Pyerite9664 Mexallon0 Isogen0 Nocxium4096 Zydrine4096 Megacyte81920 Total99996
If you're re-processing loot, you would rather reprocess a Sansha mission then a Guristas mission, so I hope you included multiple faction missions in that mix.
That's not exactly true.
I've ratted both in Stain and Venal. Gurista's equivilent of Tach's is 425 rails. Guristas also get lots of xl-boosters and large shield transfer's.
Originally by: Benglada And whos going to tackle for them? Jesus?
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