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Professor Bunsen
Optech Scientific
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Posted - 2007.08.20 08:32:00 -
[1]
I flagged up Optech's intentions to launch a market betting service last week. My initial idea was to facilitate betting on the RL financial indexes in an effort to avoid in-game player shennanigans with the index. And then I thought, what could be nicer than player shennanigans with the market index? 
The new service will be called Eve Index.
The first market index I have developed is the Jita Trit Index [^JTI]. The index is the average of the Jita Trit 2B Buy and the Jita Trit 2B Sell measurements.
The Jita Trit 2B Buy is the average price you would have to pay to buy 2 bil units of Trit at Jita 4-4.
No prizes for guessing that the Jita Trit 2B Sell is the average price you would receive for selling 2 bil units of Trit at Jita 4-4.
[^JTI] is simply the arithmetic average, the mid price.
The index prices are harvested automatically approximately hourly when the servers are up from the market export function.
 Why 2 bil of units? It is an arbitary volume, small enough that the index approximates to the best sell/best buy price, but large enough that there is i) almost always 2 bil of volume in buy and sell orders to work with and ii) that significant volumes have to be placed on orders to move the JTI.
Isn't the index vulnerable to market manipulation? Yes  However, market manipulators will not know when the market orders are being sampled, and my index betting will take the daily average of around 20 samples over the 24 hour period, so any market manipulation will have to be sustained and reasonably costly with no guarantee that the Jita hordes won't just hoover up your orders.
Current price 20/08/07 08:53 Jita Trit Mid 2b Index = 2.43646121253
Open for comment for a day or two to poke holes in before service goes live.
Bunsen - cooking on gas!
Optech Scientific Data Feed |
Apple Blossom
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Posted - 2007.08.20 08:49:00 -
[2]
 Originally by: Professor Bunsen
The index prices are harvested automatically approximately hourly when the servers are up from the market export function.
Out of curiosity, how is this done? I know there is a market export button in the Eve client, but I didn't know you could set it to update automatically. Or do you mean you sit with an open client and press the button every hour manually (which then feeds into an automatic parsing script)? What happens when you fall asleep?
If there is a way to export automatically then I'd love to know how! ^_^
Apple
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Professor Bunsen
Optech Scientific
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Posted - 2007.08.20 09:03:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Apple Blossom
Originally by: Professor Bunsen
The index prices are harvested automatically approximately hourly when the servers are up from the market export function.
If there is a way to export automatically then I'd love to know how! ^_^
Apple
I'm sure you would. Such valuable technical data would have a price in excess of 1 Bil I would imagine, but make me an offer I can't refuse !
Optech Scientific Data Feed |
Apple Blossom
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Posted - 2007.08.20 10:01:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Professor Bunsen
Originally by: Apple Blossom
Originally by: Professor Bunsen
The index prices are harvested automatically approximately hourly when the servers are up from the market export function.
If there is a way to export automatically then I'd love to know how! ^_^
Apple
I'm sure you would. Such valuable technical data would have a price in excess of 1 Bil I would imagine, but make me an offer I can't refuse !
Oooh. Professor, you tease. 
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Kayleigh Snow
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Posted - 2007.08.20 10:35:00 -
[5]
This is quite a good idea on paper, but there are obvious concerns.
Since us punters will be effectively betting on the performance of Tritanium (in Jita) we will need to see exactly how you have calculated your average price for auditing purposes, otherwise you could falsely report the average to make some gains. Do you have any plans to show in detail how you calculate your numbers?
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Professor Bunsen
Optech Scientific
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Posted - 2007.08.20 11:32:00 -
[6]
OK, breaking down how the calculations are done :
Jita Trit 2B Sell, sort market buy orders, best price first, calculate the price to buy all available trit at best price, if less than 2bil units bought,then buy next best price units and so on until 2 bil "bought".
e.g.
100k units @ 2.4 = cost 240 k isk
1300k units @ 2.39 = cost 3107 k isk
600k (out of 700k available) units @ 2.38 = 1428 k isk
Total cost to buy 2 bil units trit in Jita 4-4 = 4775 k isk = 2.3875 isk / unit
Hope that's what you were looking for. The prices will be uploaded to the website as they are calculated and are timestamped, so as a new price point is made punters can check against the current market to ensure all is on the level.
Optech Scientific Data Feed |
Hexxx
Minmatar
ironwood ink
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Posted - 2007.08.20 12:33:00 -
[7]
Good luck Professor, I like the idea and where you're taking this. I also think that someone else maintains a mineral index of sorts, however, it is for purely information purposes as opposed to your stated intent. I'm also too busy to search and link the afore mentioned index. My apologies. 
Lastly, this would be a perfect yes/no condition for date dependent Futures Contract. All we need is for someone to build a Futures Exchange.
Hexxx LLP - Business Consulting Services - IPO's, Business Plans, Share/Stock Pricing, and general Consulting.
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Auri Hella
The Graduates
Brutally Clever Empire
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Posted - 2007.08.20 13:52:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Hexxx
I also think that someone else maintains a mineral index of sorts, however, it is for purely information purposes as opposed to your stated intent. I'm also too busy to search and link the afore mentioned index. My apologies.
Would that be the Matari Mineral Index?
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Tharrn
Amarr
Epitoth Fleetyards
Vigilia Valeria
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Posted - 2007.08.20 22:22:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Apple Blossom
Originally by: Professor Bunsen
The index prices are harvested automatically approximately hourly when the servers are up from the market export function.
Out of curiosity, how is this done? I know there is a market export button in the Eve client, but I didn't know you could set it to update automatically. Or do you mean you sit with an open client and press the button every hour manually (which then feeds into an automatic parsing script)? What happens when you fall asleep?
If there is a way to export automatically then I'd love to know how! ^_^
Apple
*coughs*
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FastLearner
Fury Holdings
Brutally Clever Empire
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Posted - 2007.08.20 22:37:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Auri Hella
Originally by: Hexxx
I also think that someone else maintains a mineral index of sorts, however, it is for purely information purposes as opposed to your stated intent. I'm also too busy to search and link the afore mentioned index. My apologies.
Would that be the Matari Mineral Index?
There's no way that's Jita prices with a daily average of 2.07 for Tritanium, 5.69 for Pyerite etc.
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FastLearner
Fury Holdings
Brutally Clever Empire
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Posted - 2007.08.20 22:38:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Tharrn
Originally by: Apple Blossom
Originally by: Professor Bunsen
The index prices are harvested automatically approximately hourly when the servers are up from the market export function.
Out of curiosity, how is this done? I know there is a market export button in the Eve client, but I didn't know you could set it to update automatically. Or do you mean you sit with an open client and press the button every hour manually (which then feeds into an automatic parsing script)? What happens when you fall asleep?
If there is a way to export automatically then I'd love to know how! ^_^
Apple
*coughs*
No way Professor Bunsen can rely on that - as it's based on user contributions which could be edited to produce distorted results.
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Tharrn
Amarr
Epitoth Fleetyards
Vigilia Valeria
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Posted - 2007.08.20 22:41:00 -
[12]
I was told those datafeeds wouldn't be from user contributed data. Might be wrong though.
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Aduna
Battlestars
GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2007.08.21 01:19:00 -
[13]
do we still have the opportunity to buy those 50mil blocks of 'stock' in Optech, or is that no longer an option?
Originally by: James 315
Goon logistics may have the most efficient manner of griefing BoB that there is:every Goon tower in a BoB system is a punch in BoB's stomach and a middle finger to Dianabolic's crew |
Shinhan
Phoenix Knights
Dark Nebula Galactic Empire
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Posted - 2007.08.21 14:06:00 -
[14]
MMI (Matari Mineral Index) and EVE-Central index are for entire universe. Bunsen means to track only Jita 4-4. Thats much less work.
But still, only way to automatically export market data every hour would be by using a simple macro that clicks "Export" every 60 minutes...
--
Selling apples, 1 signature each.
ѼѼѼѼѼѼѼ |
Wyehr
Shadow Of The Light
R i s e
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Posted - 2007.08.21 15:22:00 -
[15]
I'm not sure what market data ends up in the cache or can be seen in the log server, but I'd at least think about looking into it before accusing someone of using macros.
[ 2007.03.18 18:45:59 ] (notify) Typhoon belonging to Gandolf self-destructs. |
Professor Bunsen
Optech Scientific
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Posted - 2007.08.30 07:11:00 -
[16]
It turns out that market data can only be extracted manually. Its a high tech universe we live in ! Consequently I am looking for others who would like to see a market index become a reality and who would be prepared to ftp in several logs from jita per play session, the more the merrier to give time coverage and the largest number of price points possible.
Out of interest the back end data can be presented on the fly [example]
Ive had some initial interest in making the index available as a feed to underpin a futures market, so if thats of interest get in touch.
Optech Scientific Data Feed |
Jon Asus
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Posted - 2007.08.30 12:07:00 -
[17]
Actually, why isn't there a mineral futures market?
I participated in the Trit futures market but it never really took off.
*starts to devise a mineral futures market*
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Ricdic
Caldari
Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd
Zzz
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Posted - 2007.08.30 12:08:00 -
[18]
It's a shame there are probably 5,000 miners online at any one time in the day using macro's, and a piece of software designed to enhance eve by clicking an export button once an hour is considered just as bad.
Really CCP should allow this functionality through the API system so Bunsen, I would pop into the technology forums where API requests are made, and see if the dev in there considers it ok to allow the API feed on the market. Worth a try if it hasn't yet been asked for.
Need Empire Research Slots. Click here |
Futex Manager
EVE Futures Exchange
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Posted - 2007.08.30 12:56:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Jon Asus
Actually, why isn't there a mineral futures market?
I participated in the Trit futures market but it never really took off.
*starts to devise a mineral futures market*
There will be a futures market very soon.
Getting a reliable market feed is one of the last missing pieces, and Professor Bunsen seems to be working on that.
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tinuvin
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Posted - 2007.08.30 13:10:00 -
[20]
A couple of questions.
1. You would need to specify a time for when the trit price is calculated, or you could also use a variable time in your favour.
2. Can a person betting specify a time frame. i.e 1 day change, week change, etc.
3. You will need a large reserve. What plan do you have in place if the market starts betting on one side more than the other and you stand to lose your capital base. There is no one to "lay" the bet off to.
4. You will need to keep an eye on the dev blogs. If important market data comes out that will effect the price (like coupling arrays) the index could be in trouble.
I like the idea of the betting index. It can act as a hedge against future price fluctautions, which is very useful as a producer.
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Professor Bunsen
Optech Scientific
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Posted - 2007.08.30 14:32:00 -
[21]
Originally by: tinuvin
1. You would need to specify a time for when the trit price is calculated, or you could also use a variable time in your favour.
Now planning on oversampling (manually) and at random times in the hour to generate a robust daily average.
Originally by: tinuvin
2. Can a person betting specify a time frame. i.e 1 day change, week change, etc.
Yes there will be day, week and month bets available on the index.
Originally by: tinuvin
3. You will need a large reserve. What plan do you have in place if the market starts betting on one side more than the other and you stand to lose your capital base. There is no one to "lay" the bet off to.
I'd been struggling with this too until someone on the forum suggested a Tote system, i.e the pool of money backing a rise in the index is used to pay those winning a bet on the fall. The odds are therefore dynamic until the bet close time/date and if theres billions on a rise and 100k on a fall (and you are right) you stand to win billions 
Originally by: tinuvin
4. You will need to keep an eye on the dev blogs. If important market data comes out that will effect the price (like coupling arrays) the index could be in trouble.
Not a problem with a tote, those making bets might need to watch out for price changes with eve changes.
Originally by: tinuvin
I like the idea of the betting index. It can act as a hedge against future price fluctautions, which is very useful as a producer.
Me too, a robust reference price is a pre-requesite for all sorts of clever hedging stuff, not to mention a good old fashioned flutter!
Still looking for assistance getting sent or ftping Jita Trit logs. There may be a profit share to discuss for business partners!
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Wyehr
Shadow Of The Light
R i s e
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Posted - 2007.08.30 15:29:00 -
[22]
At one time I had started working on a system for collecting and distributing bounties for market data uploads. The idea was that people could put money into a pool for the region/item data they wanted and that pool would be paid out to people in exhcange for uploading that export file.
A market that lots of people care about, like tritanium in The Forge, would obviously get more donations and be able to pay for more frequent updates.
I've got too many other projects right now to get it going, but it might be a good way to get lots of participation in a data collection effort if someone else wants to try it.
[ 2007.03.18 18:45:59 ] (notify) Typhoon belonging to Gandolf self-destructs. |
Professor Bunsen
Optech Scientific
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Posted - 2007.08.31 07:17:00 -
[23]
I have some volunteers to assist on supplying market logs, but I need more. Payment and a % of any future syndication profits available.
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Dr Slurm
General Commodities
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Posted - 2007.08.31 10:50:00 -
[24]
I'd be interested in helping. Its very similar to my Eve Data Cooperative project.
Tired of the inane ramblings of the incompetent? Click here |
Dohkar
Amarr
Statler and Waldorf LLC
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Posted - 2007.08.31 15:05:00 -
[25]
I may be interested in helping, depending on your time/location needs. Eve-mail me with info.
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Professor Bunsen
Optech Scientific
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Posted - 2007.08.31 21:18:00 -
[26]
4 on the team so far but could do with a couple more good men. Participants get full access to the raw data and a partnership % of any syndication.
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Professor Bunsen
Optech Scientific
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Posted - 2007.09.03 23:36:00 -
[27]
I'd be grateful of for a few trial users to the website to kick the tyres and see anything falls off!
I think registration is pretty self explanatory. Registration is confimed by sending isk to Utility Bot (the email will ask for 1-100,000) and the wallet API should pick it up on the hourly cycle. If you need a refund evemail me
When you get into the site please place a bet and if you win you will be ofc be paid when the markets close (and I get home). Minimum bet is 100k which shouldn't break the bank, and the odds displayed are digital odds i.e. evens = 2.0
www.eveindex.cfdeveloper.co.uk
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