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100% invention failure since Trinity

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J3ST3R Gallente Dark Light Inc	Posted - 2007.12.08 20:06:00 - [1] 3 Rupture-Broadsword 1 Blackbird-Falcon 5 Caracal-Cerberus All skills at level V All invention carried out in a POS mobile lab All BPC max run ME50+ on all the BPC Various decrypter types used 2 of the Caracal jobs had ships installed in the process too. I feel I'm missing something small ship invention is getting easier??? I would have expected 2-3 of these to be successful before patch. I do have the draftsman GI-2 implant plugged in :( any ideas sages of the forums?
Carniflex Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project	Posted - 2007.12.08 20:09:00 - [2] Bad luck. I have had 2 ship invention jobs completed for me after the patch. Both sucsessful, so thats where your luck went. Invention is kinda statistical game afterall, you need large enough patches so it would average out, below sufficently large patches it's just lottery.
Rompetrol Gallente Advanced Technologies Inc	Posted - 2007.12.08 20:11:00 - [3] random luck dude...it suxors Peace on earth and fire in the sky!
J3ST3R Gallente Dark Light Inc	Posted - 2007.12.08 20:14:00 - [4] I'm wondering if inventio in POS's got*****ed up with the patch I couldn't find any of the base items or decrypter types when trying an advanced lab, maybe a similar bug to the Dread ROF to 0 sec bug in siege invention chance to 0 when using a POS :S
Kaaii Caldari Kaaii-Net Research Labs	Posted - 2007.12.08 20:14:00 - [5] 5 charons - nothing According to Oveur, existing LSAA's already anchored will stay there. kieron Director of Community Relations,
Argenton Sayvers	Posted - 2007.12.08 20:19:00 - [6] Your sample size is only 9. When the average chance is 30%, you have 4% chance that all fail. Thats quite possible... even with 40% its still 1% chance for a 0/9 streak. Did you use +9 run decryptors? POS worked yesterday, 40 jobs done, above average results.
J3ST3R Gallente Dark Light Inc	Posted - 2007.12.08 20:27:00 - [7] No I was using the +4 and +2 run decrypters.
Ms Vanity Caldari Hulk Industries	Posted - 2007.12.08 20:47:00 - [8] Originally by: Kaaii 5 charons - nothing OUCH!
Venkul Mul Gallente	Posted - 2007.12.09 00:00:00 - [9] Originally by: J3ST3R I do have the draftsman GI-2 implant plugged in :( any ideas sages of the forums? It is bugged and do nothing. You can petition to get it out unarmed.
James Lister State Outfitters	Posted - 2007.12.09 01:28:00 - [10] Science and industry jobs now default to division 1 hangars instead of assuming the one you started from is the one you intend to use. This is potentially mucho extra clicking for each job and you will have a hard time getting the job to use base items/decryptors until you notice what is going on. If CCP addresses this problem I would also request they have the S&I tab remember your last choice of range (BP loc, station, solarsystem, etc) as it does installation type (public, corp, etc) currently. I tend to do jobs in similar batches and it would save me at least a pair of clicks and a few seconds each time.
Tres Farmer Gallente Federation Intelligence Service	Posted - 2007.12.09 01:35:00 - [11] Originally by: James Lister Science and industry jobs now default to division 1 hangars instead of assuming the one you started from is the one you intend to use. This is potentially mucho extra clicking for each job and you will have a hard time getting the job to use base items/decryptors until you notice what is going on. If CCP addresses this problem I would also request they have the S&I tab remember your last choice of range (BP loc, station, solarsystem, etc) as it does installation type (public, corp, etc) currently. I tend to do jobs in similar batches and it would save me at least a pair of clicks and a few seconds each time. Did you actually filed a bug-report about this? if not.. go.. hurry..
Artmedis Valben Gallente Lobster of Babel	Posted - 2007.12.09 03:11:00 - [12] We have done 20 frigate, 15 cruiser and 10 BS inventions since Trinity All inventors have max level in encryption, starship, and mechanical relevant to the base+skill success rate frigate 63% Cruiser 27% Battleship 11% These are small samples, so inaccurate. 5 jobs with +4 (1,8x) 2/5 15 with +9 (0,6x) 7/15 25 with +2 (1,0x) 5/25 These are odd numbers Amarr 3/10 Caldari 5/10 Gallente 1/15 Minmatar 5/10 As you can see very random. Selling: PERFECT PRINTS New ships
El'essar Viocragh Minmatar FSK23	Posted - 2007.12.09 03:21:00 - [13] Since Trinity: 8 of 20 frigate inventions 2 of 3 battleship inventions Before Trinity: 3 of 28 What do these numbers tell us? Nice sample results after, not so nice sample results before. Conclusions? None. -- [17:47] <Mephysto> its dead, jim
Protrade Gallente University of Caille	Posted - 2007.12.09 04:00:00 - [14] Edited by: Protrade on 09/12/2007 04:01:58 Since Trinity. I have been.. lucky... Everyone hates me at the moment for it. Sin: 3/5 successes, 5 run BPC using Stolen Formulas and max run BPC Kronos: 5/5 successes, 5 run BPC using Stolen Formulas and max run BPC Phobos: 1/10 successes, 9 run BPC using Symbiotic Figures and single run bpc (misclicked those from max run) Very few people with good luck actually even check the forums and even post on them. I know a few others with decent success rates and they have not bothered to post either. I have had 40 fails in a row before, and I was on another before Trinity. I am happy these were good rates. Before the patch... my Hulk successes dropped to a rock. Skills are 5/5/5 by the way. Invented these in a POS. I am the trading alt for a very wealty industrial corporation. Billions of isk flow through my Jita 4-4 account every day and I never undock. I'
J3ST3R Gallente Dark Light Inc	Posted - 2007.12.10 05:40:00 - [15] Update 3/14 Had 2 Flycatcher and 1 Sabre Success.
Lone Gunman	Posted - 2007.12.10 06:44:00 - [16] 3 Scorpion-Widow 3 Raven-Golam All One Run BPC's Skills all at 4 Using +4 Decryptor No Base Public Invention 0 for 6
Muckle	Posted - 2007.12.10 08:38:00 - [17] 3 Moa -> Onyx, skills at 4/4/4 +4 decryptor All Successfull 1 x Scorp -> Widow +4 decryptor Success 1 x Raven -> Marauder +4 Decryptor Failed. Can't grumble really, 4/5 Aint bad,
Benn Helmsman Caldari Dark Prophecy Inc.	Posted - 2007.12.10 09:08:00 - [18] I still cant understand why invention has to be chance based. Maybe for the first time you invent something, but how can you explain that you can invent something and 5 minutes later you cant any more? Its like making production random... maybe you get a BS maybe you dont... I hope CCP change that in the future, it is no fun at all.
Jurgen Cartis Caldari Interstellar Corporation of Exploration	Posted - 2007.12.10 09:24:00 - [19] Just a run of horrible luck I'm afraid. -------------------- ICE Blueprint Sales FIRST!! -Yipsilanti Pfft. Never such a thing as a "last chance". ;) -Rauth
KaptnSparrow Caldari R.E.C.O.N. Black-Out	Posted - 2007.12.10 09:31:00 - [20] i got around 50% right now. 15 try's, 7 success since patch campaign all farmers need to die... --- we are open for applications convo me ---
Pronas Scoopex The Threshold	Posted - 2007.12.10 11:56:00 - [21] do you use ship or just bpc + decryptor for invention job ? seems some said put a tier 1 (or more for module) are useless but seems i got better result with them.
Zebs Missus	Posted - 2007.12.10 12:20:00 - [22] Im at about 25% - 4 worked out of 15 jobs yesterday :/ - this was producing mods, nevermind ships... I must have the worst luck in invention - skills 4/4/4
Idxx	Posted - 2007.12.10 14:19:00 - [23] Semi related question: Why use a max run BPC for ship invention? I thought that outcomes were the same, ignoring the decryptor choice. The runs on the BPC don't affect runs on the t2 invented bpc - do they affect the chance to land a success?
Lone Gunman	Posted - 2007.12.10 14:30:00 - [24] Originally by: Idxx Semi related question: Why use a max run BPC for ship invention? I thought that outcomes were the same, ignoring the decryptor choice. The runs on the BPC don't affect runs on the t2 invented bpc - do they affect the chance to land a success? Pre Trinity using a one run BPC had the same chance as a Max run BPC. We are assuming this is still the case. But using a max run BPC does give you an extra run on a successful T2 BPC copy.
Idxx	Posted - 2007.12.10 14:34:00 - [25] I see. Thanks for the explanation. Whats the sweet spot for determining time to copy the max runs bpcs, vs the payback for the extra run on a success? Without thinking too hard on it, it seems like doing 1 run bpc's are still the way to go, but I'm pretty new to invention.
Alex Harumichi Gallente Gradient Electus Matari	Posted - 2007.12.10 15:03:00 - [26] Another semi-related question, is it worth it to add a (t1) ship to the invention job when doing t2 ship invention? I seem to remember that adding a module/ship gave somewhat better chances, but it there any hard data on this (or guesswork)? :)
Idxx	Posted - 2007.12.10 15:13:00 - [27] Alex: for modules yes. For ships no. The ships meta level is either 0 or 1, I forgot, but this gives no bonus to the job, and just wastes money.
J3ST3R Gallente Dark Light Inc	Posted - 2007.12.11 07:44:00 - [28] Behaves better since I reset the POS forcefield password. As for ships before trinity I saw no benefit to overall success adding a T1 ship to the process.
Alex Harumichi Gallente Gradient Electus Matari	Posted - 2007.12.11 08:55:00 - [29] Edited by: Alex Harumichi on 11/12/2007 08:55:48 Originally by: Idxx Alex: for modules yes. For ships no. The ships meta level is either 0 or 1, I forgot, but this gives no bonus to the job, and just wastes money. Ok, good to know. Thanks!
SPIONKOP Caldari Fire Suppression	Posted - 2007.12.11 09:03:00 - [30] Results since trinity using max run BPC and decrypter giving 3 run BPC. 8 Brutix 1 success 8 Ferox 1 success Sample size too small to compare with pre-trinity but the last 24 ferox attempts on pre-trinity got me only 2 3 run BPC's. I am due a good run damn it However the build costs on these BPC's are now insane if buying components of the market so keeping them to one side until the storm carms down or ship prices go up. I have plenty of components in stock, going to sell them I think with these silly prices. --------------------------------------------- Space For Rent. 100mil ISK/Week.
Lone Gunman	Posted - 2007.12.11 20:29:00 - [31] Edited by: Lone Gunman on 11/12/2007 20:30:55 Originally by: SPIONKOP However the build costs on these BPC's are now insane if buying components of the market so keeping them to one side until the storm carms down or ship prices go up. I have plenty of components in stock, going to sell them I think with these silly prices. Same here and with "0" success so far with invention i am considering the same thing.
Lone Gunman	Posted - 2007.12.12 16:51:00 - [32] UPDATE Originally by: Lone Gunman Edited by: Lone Gunman on 10/12/2007 14:22:45 3 Scorpion-Widow 3 Raven-Golem All One Run BPC's Skills all at 4 Using +4 Decryptor No Base Public Invention 0 for 6 Second Run - 3 Scorpion-Widow 3 Raven-Golem All One Run BPC's Skills all at 4 Using +4 Decryptor No Base Public Invention 4 out of 6 3 widows 1 Golem I'm not complaining but does this seem off? Anyone else having a marked increase in Invention Success?
Jann DeVIlle	Posted - 2007.12.12 18:26:00 - [33] Originally by: Lone Gunman Pre Trinity using a one run BPC had the same chance as a Max run BPC. We are assuming this is still the case. But using a max run BPC does give you an extra run on a successful T2 BPC copy. I've recently tried this (max run Merlin BPCs without a decryptor) and got a 1 run Harpy BPC. So the extra run seems to be a myth
Burchov Lyrus Associates	Posted - 2007.12.12 19:15:00 - [34] Originally by: Jann DeVIlle I've recently tried this (max run Merlin BPCs without a decryptor) and got a 1 run Harpy BPC. So the extra run seems to be a myth It is not a myth, because you only get that extra run if use use a decryptor, and then it doesn't matter which decryptor. See this thread, particularly this reply: Originally by: MicanG If it's a 1run bpc with a +4 decryptor you get 4 runs if it's max run bpc with a +4 decryptor you get 5 runs if it's a 1run bpc with a +9 decryptor yhou get 9 runs if it's max run bpc with a +9 decryptor you get 10 runs
J3ST3R Gallente Dark Light Inc	Posted - 2007.12.12 22:38:00 - [35] So might have to modify title now but here is an update. Total Ship Jobs 25 Successes 8 10 straight failures then I reset my POS forcefield password 8/15 successes since.
Etho Demerzel Gallente Holy Clan of the Cone	Posted - 2007.12.13 01:30:00 - [36] CCP random chance implementation is very poor and leads to a lot of streaks. That is extremelly bad (or sometimes extremelly good for some people), much more than it would be likely to be in a true (or even reasoably approximate) random distribution. There are many ways in which they may have mismodeled the random chances, but I am pretty sure the model is awful. ===== "If a member of the EVE community finds he or she cannot accept our current level of transparency, we bid you good luck in finding a company that meets your needs." - CCP kieron...
Roland San	Posted - 2007.12.13 03:01:00 - [37] 9 Golem jobs so far. Skills all at 4, 1-run Raven BPC, 1.8x Installation Guide. Resultant T2 BPCs were 4-4un, ME -5 and PE -2. 1st batch of 3: 2/3 success. 2nd batch of 3: 2/3 success. And just when I was happily thinking I was on a roll, 3rd batch of 3: 0/3 success :( Looking at this thread, I guess I really cannot complain about 4/9. I do hope that maybe some firm figures will come out for invention soon; as it is, the numbers are everywhere.
Lone Gunman	Posted - 2007.12.17 04:40:00 - [38] UPDATE Originally by: Lone Gunman 3 Scorpion-Widow 3 Raven-Golem All One Run BPC's Skills all at 4 Using +4 Decryptor No Base Public Invention 0 for 6 Second Run - 3 Scorpion-Widow 3 Raven-Golem All One Run BPC's Skills all at 4 Using +4 Decryptor No Base Public Invention 4 out of 6 3 widows 1 Golem Third Run Skills 4/4/4 +4 Decryptor 1.8 Chance Public Invention 1 Scorpion 1 Run BPC No Base (Success! 4 Run ME -5 PE -2 Widow BPC) 1 Scorpion 200 Run BPC With Base (Success! 10 Run ME -5 PE -2 Widow BPC) 3 Raven Max Run BPC No Base (Success! 3x 5 Run ME -5 PE -2 Golem BPC) 1 Raven Max Run BPC No Base (Failure) All in all not to Shabby.
Bambi	Posted - 2007.12.17 12:10:00 - [39] 11 attempts with single run Raven BPC using 0.4x decryptors. 1 success, 9 runs ME -6 10 failures. 5/5/5 skills.
Stefan F Enrave Knights Of the Southerncross	Posted - 2007.12.17 14:13:00 - [40] Originally by: Etho Demerzel CCP random chance implementation is very poor and leads to a lot of streaks. That is extremelly bad (or sometimes extremelly good for some people), much more than it would be likely to be in a true (or even reasoably approximate) random distribution. There are many ways in which they may have mismodeled the random chances, but I am pretty sure the model is awful. Probably based on each invention attempt. So yes you could potentially get 20 misses in a row. Live with it or quit the business... more profit for the rest
Jeremiaz Gallente Nautilus Industries	Posted - 2007.12.17 17:51:00 - [41] Been searching around and this is the only thread I can find that sort of mentions the problem I'm having. I'm new to invention, but have all the necessary skills. I'm trying to invent a T2 Gallente Battleship BPC i.e. Kronos. I have all necessary items in My Hangar at an NPC station. I'm trying to install the job in our POS mobile lab which is in the same system. But I can't select the Base Item or Decrypter. Someone earlier said that they all need to be in corp Hangar 1, so I tried this as well, but still no luck. Any ideas anyone?
Etho Demerzel Gallente Holy Clan of the Cone	Posted - 2007.12.17 18:31:00 - [42] Edited by: Etho Demerzel on 17/12/2007 18:33:32 Edited by: Etho Demerzel on 17/12/2007 18:32:21 Originally by: Stefan F Originally by: Etho Demerzel CCP random chance implementation is very poor and leads to a lot of streaks. That is extremelly bad (or sometimes extremelly good for some people), much more than it would be likely to be in a true (or even reasoably approximate) random distribution. There are many ways in which they may have mismodeled the random chances, but I am pretty sure the model is awful. Probably based on each invention attempt. So yes you could potentially get 20 misses in a row. Live with it or quit the business... more profit for the rest Hey if the rest CAN have a profit comparable to the work involved and the money that needs to be appied to tank for these oddities good for them. I sincerely doubt it. I am capable of betting that the people that are investing time and effort in T2 Battleship production for example would be earning alot more doing other things. My point is, overall it is a bad system. It is better to have a system that gives you a guaranteed quickly converging average than one that is based on a poor implementation of a random sequence which can produce streaks of 20-30 failures frequently even for an attempt chances of around 40-45% (1.8 * base chance modified by skills). These streaks are too frequent to be anything but a bug. And before some idiot comes here saying that anything is possible in a random sequence. Possible is different from likely. And when too many things unlikely happen it is much more probable an error is generating them than they being oddities in a correctly implemented random sequence. ===== "If a member of the EVE community finds he or she cannot accept our current level of transparency, we bid you good luck in finding a company that meets your needs." - CCP kieron...

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