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Whip Slagcheek
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Posted - 2008.01.17 23:02:00 -
[1]
I mainly make my income through steady sure-fire means. Once in a while I'll come upon an opportunity that is too good to pass up so I put the chips on the table and roll the dice.
Several months ago my friend was bragging about how much isk he was making with a certain module, the micro capacitor booster I module, a staple of some crow and other frigate setups. Apparently he was able to buy them up in The Forge for 250,000 isk and resell them at 750,000 isk or more. I was a bit miffed because I had just bought a couple from him and his cackling glee was a thorn in my side. All I could think to myself was, "Why didn't I think of doing that?" See, this module is a bit special. CCP took away the blueprint original and left the module. I thought, "fixed supply!" So I stared at those red numbers in my wallet a bit more... "why didn't I think of that..."
Eventually I did. On 10/27/07 I made my move. My corporation already had offices scattered around all of empire space. My coworkers were set to ride the pod express around the known civilized world. We made our move. In a matter of a few hours all of empire was devoid of sales orders for micro boosters less than 1 million isk. Our corp was now the proud owner of some 1736 micro cap boosters, surely a significant portion of the available supply.
We worked through the night to consolidate the supply and redistribute them to approximately 19 trade centers including the well known Jita, Rens, Amarr, etc. We held a strategic meeting to decide our approach for unloading the modules. We brought in a consultant, an expert small ships pirate. He estimated that people were willing to pay much more than the going market price of 600,000 isk or so since the micro variant is the only one that will fit on some ship setups. We figured three sources existed for competing supply: on the market, in players' hangars, and fitted onto ships. We covered the regions in empire space. The lawless space was a bit out of our reach. That left players' hangars to worry about for competing supply.
So the micro boosters went up on the market at 2.5m isk. A hefty markup but one we were sure people were willing to pay. It has a fixed supply so if they don't sell fast enough we can always lower them at a later time right? No rush on our end. Our plan was to entice players to put their boosters up for sell. Surely people would see the new price and unload their hoards of micro mods. It worked to some degree. On 11/16/07 we moved to a new phase of the project and repriced empire-wide to 4m isk per module after having bought up all of the cheap stock that showed up after initial repricing. Then we waited to see what would happen.
Fast forward to present day. It's been about 3 months. Sales have been disappointing to say the least. I was put in charge of the Vajayjay MCB (micro cap booster) division after the 4m reprice. I didn't aggressively pursue additional units that showed up on the market since we had well overrun our initial budget in the first weeks of purchase. Unfortunately sales hasn't even paid off the initial investment so I have decided to let the investment ride and I guess I'll be selling MCBs till the end of time.
Yes, I could've priced them lower. But the manipulation was more about learning than profiting. So I ask to you sage market people, "What could I have done differently to come out in the black?" And more importantly, "Where in the hell did these other MCBs come from?" The Forge has well over 600 units for sale not in my control going for as little as 900,000 isk. They didn't all drop from ships lost in combat because I haven't even sold 600 units for them to lose. Did someone have a secret stash of thousands of these things laying around? Did some obscure 0 0 regions have tons? Vajayjay is demanding an investment report in two weeks and I want to keep my job.
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SiJira
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Posted - 2008.01.17 23:07:00 -
[2]
Edited by: SiJira on 17/01/2008 23:07:01 manipulation - this thread Trashed sig, Shark was here |
Whip Slagcheek
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Posted - 2008.01.17 23:15:00 -
[3]
Originally by: SiJira Edited by: SiJira on 17/01/2008 23:07:01 manipulation - this thread
I figured I would get a response like this at some point. However that's not the case. I spent too much time in October and November with this project to mess with it anymore. I already stated I just plan on letting it ride as is and sell them until the end of time if that is what it takes. To put it simply, I can make more money elsewhere than to do any further tampering with that market. My efforts temporarily held up the prices but they have since returned to before manipulation prices plus about 100,000 isk.
Honestly I was looking for advice. The main point of this experiment was to learn about the market and see how manipulation can be done. If you have anything to contribute to that I'd welcome your responses.
As far as this thread being manipulation... I tried to make an interesting read and provide useful information so I could get useful information back. Most of the manipulation threads I see in this forum consist of "OMG what's up with product X? It's such a good deal. Should I go buy it?"
I hope you can recognize the difference.
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Old Prospector
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Posted - 2008.01.18 00:13:00 -
[4]
I'm fairly certain they drop as rat loot.
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Astorothe
Aperture Science Industries
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Posted - 2008.01.18 00:44:00 -
[5]
That was a good read to say the least. I'd love to see more stories like this in MD as it gets rather boring in here sometimes and I can only stomach so many IPO and loan threads before moving onto GD.
Sounds like you had fun with this too - nicely done.
Ze logs show NOTHING! ~ Eve Corp and Fansite Web design, development and hosting services
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Pang Grohl
Gallente Sudo Corp
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Posted - 2008.01.18 01:07:00 -
[6]
I see three immediate problems.
1) You assumed that CCP removed the BPO from the game rather than just from the market, and that manufacturing was the only source of the module.
2) You assumed that micro cap boosters were irreplaceable in ship setups that used them.
3) You didn't test the market.
What I would have done differently given these two factors:
After your initial market clearing received competition, determining the nature of the competition would have been my first priority. You can't make any rational decisions with out this information. *** Si non adjuvas, noces (If you're not helping, you're hurting)
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Whip Slagcheek
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Posted - 2008.01.18 01:36:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Whip Slagcheek on 18/01/2008 01:37:30
Originally by: Old Prospector I'm fairly certain they drop as rat loot.
I don't believe they do. I've never looted one. The meta versions are extremely rare.
Originally by: Astorothe That was a good read to say the least. I'd love to see more stories like this in MD as it gets rather boring in here sometimes and I can only stomach so many IPO and loan threads before moving onto GD.
Sounds like you had fun with this too - nicely done.
Thanks. I did have fun with it; it was exciting thinking I was moving the market across all of empire.
Originally by: Pang Grohl I see three immediate problems. 1) You assumed that CCP removed the BPO from the game rather than just from the market, and that manufacturing was the only source of the module.
My research was more extensive than this. Going back about a year CCP stopped seeding the BPO. Not much was said because those who had the BPO now had a decent isk maker (I am not one of those people). Then about six months after this CCP decided without much warning to make all micro module BPOs into small module BPOs. There was an outcry as the micro sized modules were in high use and seeing active market trading. You can't even autolink the BPO or search for it on market anymore. Unless someone was the fortunate victim of a bug or an unlawful recipient of a spawned BPO, these modules shouldn't be in production anymore. As far as rats dropping them, I believe this to be false so that's why I put my money on the line thinking the supply was cut off.
Originally by: Pang Grohl
2) You assumed that micro cap boosters were irreplaceable in ship setups that used them.
I knew that people could always use a cap recharger II in place of a micro booster in all of the setups that used them (some covert ops, some interceptors, etc.) However that didn't prevent you from getting NOS'ed out. Since then NOS was nerfed and Trinity gave interceptors cap usage bonuses, the usefulness of the module has gone down. However at the time I figured if people were putting 100m worth of rigs on a 25m interceptor they would be willing to pay 4m for a module that meant they could continue to MWD even when neuted.
Originally by: Pang Grohl
3) You didn't test the market.
This probably more than anything. However I considered my friend's venture into the single-region manipulation as good enough evidence. And considering it was my first time I don't even know how I could've tested the market for trying to control the supply of a module.
Originally by: Pang Grohl
What I would have done differently given these two factors:
After your initial market clearing received competition, determining the nature of the competition would have been my first priority. You can't make any rational decisions with out this information.
That's something I never thought of. After the initial work in November I was already fed up with the effort it was taking and eventually the number of sell orders was increasing on a weekly basis so I figured I had failed horribly in cornering the supply.
My reasoning since then has been to write off the investment as a learning experience. If I am correct about the supply, then they can only get more valuable as time goes on unless CCP changes the game. If I am wrong about the supply, I will have already considered the venture a loss and can concentrate my time and energies on things I know will generate isk.
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Astorothe
Aperture Science Industries
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Posted - 2008.01.18 01:40:00 -
[8]
You learnt from this which is more valuable than any ISK you made on the scheme. Getting market experience is really valuable - I know I look back on some of the stunts I tried to pull (and lost loads of ISK) and think "What the hell was I thinking". You just get better and better though over time.
Ze logs show NOTHING! ~ Eve Corp and Fansite Web design, development and hosting services
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Bouncer Ricdic
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Posted - 2008.01.18 01:56:00 -
[9]
Yeh some of us bought this bpo before CCP removed it from the game . Also yep I am fairly certain rats do drop the item.
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Wesley Baird
Murder-Death-Kill
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Posted - 2008.01.18 03:46:00 -
[10]
Whip, making me pay too much for my cap boosters!!!! Oh wait I bought 10 before the price bump
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Nikkoli
Immortalis Kruoris
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Posted - 2008.01.18 04:10:00 -
[11]
perhaps exploration is droping BPC's of it??
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Vested Interest
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Posted - 2008.01.18 05:05:00 -
[12]
Sounds like my misfortunate foray into capacitor flux coils Wow what a great markup! buy buy buy
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Danari
Amarr Viper Squad Triumvirate.
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Posted - 2008.01.18 08:08:00 -
[13]
Fun read, thanks.
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Lubomir Penev
interimo
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Posted - 2008.01.18 13:23:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Whip Slagcheek We brought in a consultant, an expert small ships pirate. He estimated that people were willing to pay much more than the going market price of 600,000 isk or so since the micro variant is the only one that will fit on some ship setups.
They where mostly used one 3 midslots interceptor that weren't cap stable running mwd+scram or wanted some measure of heavy nos protection.
With Trinity interceptors were changed so warp disruptors seldom use any cap on them, meaning a cap stable interceptor is doable without any cap mod with good skills. And a heavy nosferatu can't insta zap the cap of an inty anyore either, neut aren't so common.
Nos nerf + interceptor change means that there is almost no practical use for the module anymore. Your market basically disappeared.
Your market disappeared and your consultant didn't see it coming, suggesting replacing consultant. -- Heat, easy to burn your mods by mistake, hard to get it to work when you need it the most. Well designed interface CCP! |
Brisco Smiley
Peppermint Bay Trading Company
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Posted - 2008.01.18 16:49:00 -
[15]
Edited by: Brisco Smiley on 18/01/2008 16:48:51
Originally by: Whip Slagcheek Edited by: Whip Slagcheek on 18/01/2008 01:37:30
Originally by: Old Prospector I'm fairly certain they drop as rat loot.
I don't believe they do. I've never looted one. The meta versions are extremely rare.
Buy some to find out who is selling, then ask where they got them.
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Fenderson
Einherjar Rising Cry Havoc.
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Posted - 2008.01.18 17:47:00 -
[16]
in trinity, ceptors were boosted so all ceptors now have a cap use bonus for warp disruptors. this probably reduced your demand by alot, as cap is no longer an issue on most inty setups.
DO YOU PLAY POKER???? Join ingame channels "DOA Poker" and "Eve Online Hold'em" |
Wesley Baird
Murder-Death-Kill
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Posted - 2008.01.18 18:12:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Fenderson in trinity, ceptors were boosted so all ceptors now have a cap use bonus for warp disruptors. this probably reduced your demand by alot, as cap is no longer an issue on most inty setups.
I still use the Cap boosters, as one dose of Heavy Neuts means your speed drops...and you pop...very quickly...inty pilots who don't fit one are taking a huge risk...
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Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools Power Corrupts Industry's
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Posted - 2008.01.19 03:31:00 -
[18]
Three things: 1) *actually, on further reflection, I won't tell you this one. Bwahaha!* 2) I have approximately 1,000 micro modules of various types in my hangar. Anyone want a micro smartbomb? I bought them for less than 100 isk apiece. 3) If you want a fixed-supply market, go for Basic modules, especially meta versions. They enable a surprising number of setups.
MP --
Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compressionexpansion! WTF? |
Zhecao Vai
Ultrapolite Socialites GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2008.01.19 07:09:00 -
[19]
I'm with these other guys telling you that before Trinity I would fit one on every single Crow and Malediction I flew, and now I will probably never use one again in my life.
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Dijan Caro
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Posted - 2008.01.19 08:37:00 -
[20]
This is what happens when carebears try to manipulate markets (and before anyone on this forum starts posting "we take risks! how dare you call us carebears?!" carebear is used here in role play sense as someone who doesn't engage in combat). You should have done more search on the demand side of the market and then read the patch notes and realized that all the pvpers won't provide such a great demand for this module any longer. This is why when someone new at EVE says he wants to start trading I tell him don't get completely into it, go do some missions, pvp, mine, explore, and it will let you understand the market better.
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Ricdic's Hoe
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Posted - 2008.01.19 10:34:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Dijan Caro This is what happens when carebears try to manipulate markets (and before anyone on this forum starts posting "we take risks! how dare you call us carebears?!"
The hilarious part here is the pvp person too afraid to post with his main when insulting carebear's. Who's the real pansy in this scenario
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Danari
Amarr Viper Squad Triumvirate.
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Posted - 2008.01.19 12:19:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Ricdic's Hoe
Originally by: Dijan Caro This is what happens when carebears try to manipulate markets (and before anyone on this forum starts posting "we take risks! how dare you call us carebears?!"
The hilarious part here is the pvp person too afraid to post with his main when insulting carebear's. Who's the real pansy in this scenario
And whose alt are you Mr. Pot Kettle Black?
(kidding, kidding...)
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Whip Slagcheek
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Posted - 2008.01.19 20:26:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Dijan Caro This is what happens when carebears try to manipulate markets
I tend to give similar advice but make less assumptions about people before labeling them (you know what they say about assumptions). Back when I was heavy into trading I stayed away from Amarr weaponry because I couldn't tell a dual-pulse headlight from a tachyon can opener.
No, I was well aware of the coming patch. I even stated in one of my replies about realizing the lowered usefulness of the module. Had I sold enough before Trinity to get in the clear (only had to sell a small fraction of total inventory) everything would've been fine. I had read the patch notes. I knew ceptors were getting cap usage bonuses. I also knew they were putting 4 new frigates into the game. It was a judgement call.
The thing I feel I erred most in was the supply. There are probably more of those boosters for sale on the market now than before I bought out every market in empire (low sec and hi sec... hell I even organized a mothership jump out to solitude to pick up one batch). So again I have to ask myself... where did all these boosters come from?
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Raskor
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Posted - 2008.01.19 21:08:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Whip Slagcheek So again I have to ask myself... where did all these boosters come from?
It may be they still drop from ratting. I can't speak to this module but I know some "basic" modules are still in the loot tables.
It is also part hoarding. Myself I usually keep every meta item I find and only tend to sell them when I see them at ridiculous prices.
It is also part production. Many people had the blueprint for this item and it wouldn't surprise me if a decent number of people mass produced them and squirreled them away. Usually when people get wind of an item being discontinued; the natural reaction might be to build a bunch of them hoping to profit on an eliminated supply chain.
Lastly, speculators. MP's example of buying them up dirt cheap, probably patch notes speculation that the demand would stay even after the blueprints were removed.
Never underestimate the tendency of EVE players to take any edge they can find. Just look at the sales volumes of the tractor beam blueprint right after CCP announced it was mis-priced on launch and would be corrected to a much higher price (like 10x or 100x). The "fraud" was so rampant, that CCP backed off and left it at the original price; leaving all those failed speculators trying to make back at least some of their cost.
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Whip Slagcheek
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Posted - 2008.01.19 21:34:00 -
[25]
I did ask one seller yesterday where he got his from. Apparently he used to own the bpo and he squirreled a bunch away.
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Haniblecter Teg
F.R.E.E. Explorer Atrum Tempestas Foedus
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Posted - 2008.01.20 09:45:00 -
[26]
I use the tech 2 variant on my excursions around empire (allows a frigate to make most warps)
Interesting read. The only manipulation I tried (im a pvper by heart) was remote rep drops in 00 to empire. Amazing what you can resell the things for. ----------------- Friends Forever
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Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools Power Corrupts Industry's
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Posted - 2008.01.21 03:53:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Haniblecter Teg I use the tech 2 variant on my excursions around empire (allows a frigate to make most warps)
Interesting read. The only manipulation I tried (im a pvper by heart) was remote rep drops in 00 to empire. Amazing what you can resell the things for.
If you actually have a T2 micro cap booster, I will pay a lot of isk for it.
MP --
Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compressionexpansion! WTF? |
Tax Ordeus
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Posted - 2008.01.22 21:16:00 -
[28]
Maybe someone still has a BPO. Or would that not function anymore?
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Zhecao Vai
Ultrapolite Socialites GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2008.01.22 21:18:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
Originally by: Haniblecter Teg I use the tech 2 variant on my excursions around empire (allows a frigate to make most warps)
Interesting read. The only manipulation I tried (im a pvper by heart) was remote rep drops in 00 to empire. Amazing what you can resell the things for.
If you actually have a T2 micro cap booster, I will pay a lot of isk for it.
MP
He's talking about a T2 micro cap battery, not a T2 micro cap booster, because he's illiterate.
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Ashmira
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Posted - 2008.01.23 02:21:00 -
[30]
For relatively cheap items, there are a lot of prospectors that set low isk regional orders, on a lot of items, and letting them run forever. The cost is usually very low, and you end up with thousands of some low-value item, scattered all over the region (actually 90% of it is centered on a couple of systems usually tbh).
All it takes then is a bit of monitoring on the prices, and when something exceptional happens, they just haul it all to trade hubs and sell it.
A recent example of such a thing was with a salvageable part, armor plates. A few weeks after salvage was enabled it went down to 250isk/1, so it would be easy to buy 10's of thousands of them with a regional order. After trimarks became popular in pvp, they skyrocketed to 130k and rising.
So it wouldn't surprise me if there are people with tens of thousands of some obscure item in their posession - just because they could get it. |
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