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ISD Tsuki Kiyuu
ISD Interstellar Correspondents
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Posted - 2008.03.05 19:42:00 -
[1]
Keep in mind that IÆm a reporter, not a statistician, thereÆs probably some errors.
Keep in mind also that success rate depends on many things, not just whether or not you field logistics. Some matches almost went the other way û statistics only tell one part of a far more complex story. The win percentages are just included for some additional information to discuss.
We hope to bring you some more statistics as part of our coverage of the tournament. You can expect some more from us over the tournament on various stats and information.
I've not drawn any conclusions from these numbers, that's for you guys to do. ItÆs not the place for a CONCORD subsidiary like the Interstellar Correspondents to weigh in with their own opinions. Please see this just as it really is, raw data.
All of this data is drawn from information freely available to all, which is currently the only information available to us also. If we are provided any further information to further aid us in collating statistics, you can bet that weÆll share it with everyone.
Matches 1-8
1: No logistics û Cruisers Vs HAC/Support 2: No logistics û BS/HAC Vs BS/Support 3: No logistics û HAC/Support Vs BS/BC/Support 4: 1 logistics û BC/HAC/Basilisk/Cruiser/Inty Vs HAC/Support û Logistics team loses. 5: No logistics û BS/Support Vs BS/Support 6: 1 logistics û BS/Support Vs BS/HAC/Guardian/Support û Logistics team wins. 7: 2 logistics û BC/Recon/2 Guardians Vs BS/BC/Support û Logistics team wins. 8: No logistics û Recon/Cruiser/Support Vs BS/BC/Support
2 x Single logistics teams. (12.5%) 1 x Dual-logistics team. (6.25%) 13 x No logistics teams. (81.25%)
50% success rate for single logistic teams. (1 win out of 2 times fielded) 100% success rate for dual logistics teams (1 win out of 1 times fielded)
66% success rate for teams fielding logistics. (2 wins out of 3 times fielded) 46% success rate for teams fielding no logistics. (6 wins out of 13 times fielded)
Matches 9-16
9: 2 Logistics û BS/Cruiser Vs Recon/HAC/2 Guardians/Support û Logistics team wins 10: No logistics û BC/Cruisers Vs HAC/Support 11: 3 Logistics û BS/Cruisers/Basilisk/Support Vs 2 Basilisk/Support û Dual logistics team wins. 12: No logistics û BC/Support Vs Cruisers 13: 3 Logistics û Cruisers/Guardian/Support Vs BC/2 Oneiros/Cruisers û Dual logistics team wins. 14: 3 Logistics û BS/Recon/Basilisk/Support Vs BS/2 Guardians/Support û Dual logistics team wins. 15: 3 Logistics û 2 Basilisks/7 Support Vs BC/Basilisk/Support û Dual logistics team wins. 16: 1 Logistics û HAC/Oneiros/Support Vs BC/Cruiser/Support û Logistics team loses.
5 x Single logistics teams. (31.25%) 5 x Dual logistics teams. (31.25%) 6 x No logistics teams. (37.5%)
0% success rate for single logistic teams. (0 wins out of 5 times fielded) 100% success rate for dual logistics teams (5 wins out of 5 times fielded)
50% Success rate for teams fielding logistics. (5 wins out of 10 times fielded) 50% Success rate for teams fielding no logistics. (3 wins out of 6 times fielded)
Continued...
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ISD Tsuki Kiyuu
ISD Interstellar Correspondents
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Posted - 2008.03.05 19:43:00 -
[2]
Matches 9-16
9: 2 Logistics û BS/Cruiser Vs Recon/HAC/2 Guardians/Support û Logistics team wins 10: No logistics û BC/Cruisers Vs HAC/Support 11: 3 Logistics û BS/Cruisers/Basilisk/Support Vs 2 Basilisk/Support û Dual logistics team wins. 12: No logistics û BC/Support Vs Cruisers 13: 3 Logistics û Cruisers/Guardian/Support Vs BC/2 Oneiros/Cruisers û Dual logistics team wins. 14: 3 Logistics û BS/Recon/Basilisk/Support Vs BS/2 Guardians/Support û Dual logistics team wins. 15: 3 Logistics û 2 Basilisks/7 Support Vs BC/Basilisk/Support û Dual logistics team wins. 16: 1 Logistics û HAC/Oneiros/Support Vs BC/Cruiser/Support û Logistics team loses.
5 x Single logistics teams. (31.25%) 5 x Dual logistics teams. (31.25%) 6 x No logistics teams. (37.5%)
0% success rate for single logistic teams. (0 wins out of 5 times fielded) 100% success rate for dual logistics teams (5 wins out of 5 times fielded)
50% Success rate for teams fielding logistics. (5 wins out of 10 times fielded) 50% Success rate for teams fielding no logistics. (3 wins out of 6 times fielded)
Matches 17-24
17: 2 Logistics û BS/Recon/Cruiser Vs BS/2 Guardians/Support û Logistics team wins. 18: No logistics û HAC/Support Vs BS/Recon/Support 19: No logistics û HAC/Support Vs BC/HAC/Support 20: 4 Logistics û 2 Basilisks/HAC/Support Vs 2 Basilisks/Cruisers/Support û Dual logistics team with Phantasms alpha striking like mad takes the win. 21: 3 Logistics û BS/2 Basilisks/Recon/Support Vs BS/Guardian/HAC/Recon û Draw. 22: 2 Logistics û Cruiser/Support Vs BS/2 Basilisks/Support û Logistics team wins. 23: 2 Logistics û BS/2 Guardians/Support Vs BS/Support û Logistics team wins. 24: 2 Logistics û BS/Support Vs 2 Basilisks/BC/Cruisers û Logistics team loses.
1 x Single logistic team. (6.25%) 7 x Dual logistics teams. (43.75%) 8 x No logistics teams. (50%)
0% success rate for single logistic teams. (0 wins out of 0 times fielded)*-1 fielding 43% success rate for dual logistics teams (3 wins out of 6 times fielded)*-1 fielding
50% success rate for teams fielding logistics. (3 wins out of 6 times fielded)* -2 fielding 25% success rate for teams fielding no logistics. (2 wins out of 8 times fielded) *The drawn match was not factored into the statistics.
Matches 25-32
25: 3 Logistics û BS/2 Onieros/Support Vs BS/HAC/Guardian/Support û Dual logistics team wins. 26: 2 Logistics û HAC/2 Basilisks/Support Vs HAC/Support û Logistics team loses. 27: 2 Logistics û 2 Basilisks/Cruiser/Support Vs BS/Recon/Support û Logistics team wins. 28: 4 Logistics û BS/2 Guardians/Cruisers Vs BC/2 Guardians/Recon/Cruisers û Triple-thorax team fielded by Ev0ke jams opposition logistics with ECM drones and wins. 29: 1 Logistics û BS/Recon Vs BS/BC/HAC/Gurdian û Logistics team wins. 30: 2 Logistics û BC/2 Basilisks/Cruisers/Support Vs Cruisers/Support û Logistics team wins. 31: No Logistics û BC/Cruisers Vs Cruisers. 32: 2 Logistics û BS/2 Guardians/Support Vs Cruisers û Logistics team wins.
2 x Single logistic team. (12.5%) 7 x Dual logistics teams. (43.75%) 7 x No logistics teams. (43.75%)
50% success rate for single logistic teams. (1 win out of 2 times fielded) 85% success rate for dual logistics teams (6 wins out of 7 times fielded)
66% Success rate for teams fielding logistics. (6 wins out of 9 times fielded) 28.5% Success rate for teams fielding no logistics. (2 wins out of 7 times fielded)
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ISD Tsuki Kiyuu
ISD Interstellar Correspondents
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Posted - 2008.03.05 19:43:00 -
[3]
Matches 33-40
33: No Logistics û BS/Support Vs HAC/Support 34: 2 Logistics û BS/Recon/Support Vs BS/2 Guardians/Support û Logistics team wins. 35: 3 Logistics û 2 Guardians/Recons/Cruisers Vs BS/Guardian û Dual Logistics team wins. 36: 3 Logistics û Cruisers/Scimitar/Support Vs BS/2 Guardians/Support û Single Logistics team wins. 37: 4 Logistics û BS/2 Guardians/Recon/Cruiser Vs BS/2 Guardians/Support û Pandemic LegionÆs Curse breaks the MC logistics chain. 38: 2 Logistics û BS/BC/HAC/Basilisk Vs Basilisk/BC/HAC/Support û Solitary Bruce Basilisk dies under concentrated missile fire. 39: No Logistics û BS/Support Vs BS/Support 40: 4 Logistics û 2 Basilisks/BC/Cruisers Vs 2 Basilisks/Recon/Support û IAC wins by virtue of the logistics leaving the arena.
4 x Single logistic team. (25%) 7 x Dual logistics teams. (43.75%) 5 x No logistics teams. (31.25%)
50% success rate for single logistic teams. (2 wins out of 4 times fielded) 58% success rate for dual logistics teams (4 wins out of 7 times fielded)
55% Success rate for teams fielding logistics. (6 wins out of 11 times fielded) 40% Success rate for teams fielding no logistics. (2 wins out of 5 times fielded)
Matches 41-48
41: 2 Logistics û BS/2 Guardians/Support Vs BC/HAC/Cruiser/Recon û Logistics team wins. 42: 1 Logistics û HAC/Recon/Support Vs BasiliskRecon/Cruisers/Support û Logistics team loses. 43: 2 Logistics û 2 Basilisks/Recon/Support Vs HAC/Recon/Cruiser û Logistics team wins. 44: 4 Logistics û BS/2 Guardians/Support Vs BC/2 Guardians/Recon/Cruisers û Ev0ke get the jam on their enemies logistics chain and capitalize on it to win. 45: 3 Logistics û 2 Basilisks/Support Vs BS/Guardian û Dual Logistics team wins. 46: 4 Logistics û 2 Basilisks/Support Vs BS/2 Onieros/Support û United LegionÆs Abaddons obliterate HUN ReloadedÆs bomber squad for the win. 47: 2 Logistics û BC/HAC/Support Vs BS/2 Guardians/Support û Logistics team wins. 48: 3 Logistics - 2 Guardians/Recons/Cruisers Vs BC/BasiliskRecon/Support û Dual Logistics team wins.
3 x Single logistic team. (18.75%) 9 x Dual logistics teams. (56.25%) 4 x No logistics teams. (25%)
0% success rate for single logistic teams. (0 wins out of 3 times fielded) 78% success rate for dual logistics teams (7 wins out of 9 times fielded) 58% Success rate for teams fielding logistics. (7 wins out of 12 times fielded) 25% Success rate for teams fielding no logistics. (1 wins out of 4 times fielded)
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ISD Tsuki Kiyuu
ISD Interstellar Correspondents
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Posted - 2008.03.05 19:44:00 -
[4]
Overall Statistics
A quick note: ôTeamsö her refers to ôteams fielded in a matchö. Each time a team is fielded it is counted once, therefore there have been 96 (48x2) different ôteamsö that have been fielded over the first 48 matches.
17 out of 96 teams (17.7%) have fielded one logistics ship for a 23.5% success rate (4 wins out of 17 times fielded).
36 out of 96 teams (37.5%) have fielded a dual-logistics vessel setup for a 72% success rate (26 wins out of 36 times fielded).
53 out of 96 teams (55.2%) have fielded at least one logistics vessel for an overall success rate of 56.6% (30 wins out of 53 times fielded)
43 out of 96 teams (44.78%) have fielded no logistics at all so far, for an overall success rate of 37% (16 wins out of 43 times fielded)
Single Logistics Vs Dual Logistics
9 out of 17 single-logistics teams fielded have fought dual-logistics teams.
8 out of those 9 times (88%) they have lost.
Excluding the losses from those fights against dual-logistics, they have a 44% success rate (4 wins out of 9 matches).
There has been only one occasion where a single-logistics team has beaten a dual-logistics team: Match 36, when Notoriety AllianceÆs Phantasms (supported by a Scimitar, 2 Moas, a Cruor and a Sentinel) made short work of Synchr0nicityÆs 2 Guardians (supported by 2 Megathrons and a Crusader).
Also notable (and not factored into any statistics) was Match 21: A draw between Pandemic Legion (Raven | 2 Basilisks | Curse | Daredevil | 3 Vigils) and Cry Havoc (Raven | Guardian | 2 Ishtars | Curse)
Dual-logistics Vs Dual-logistics
6 matches out of 48 (12.5%) have seen one dual-logistic team up against another.
This means that 6 out of the 36 (16.67%) dual-logistics teams fielded so far have lost to other dual-logistics teams.
The dual-logistics team formation currently has an 86% success rate against other teams not fielding dual-logistics themselves (26 wins out of 30 matches).
Logistics ships usage over the first three days
Number of teams using one logistics: Day 1: 7 Day 2: 3 Day 3: 7
Number of teams using dual-logistics: Day 1: 6 Day 2: 14 Day 3: 16
Number of teams using at least one logistics: Day 1: 13 Day 2: 17 Day 3: 23
Number of teams using no logistics: Day 1: 19 Day 2: 15 Day 3: 9
The use of logistics ships overall has been slowly increasing. This has of course seen a concomitant decline in the use of non-logistics teams.
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Ari Chu
Perkone
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Posted - 2008.03.05 21:40:00 -
[5]
It would be interesting to see some Regression analysis at the end of the tournament.
Here is one possible Regression that one could run to show the impact upon winning of having Logistics:
Dependent Variable = Odds of Winning (described by a 1 or a 0 for each team in each game played, 1 being the team Won that game, and 0 being the team lost that game)
Independent Variables:
R1 = A variable to describe past tourney presence/performance. 0 = no previous tourneys, 1 = participated previously, but did not make it to the finals, 2 = Played previously and made it to the finals one time, 3 = played previously and has made it to the finals more than one time.
R2 = Total points earned in this tourney prior to this match. This should help to capture any momentum purely from a "they've done well so we expect them to continue doing well" ...
R3 = Rounds won previously this tourney. This should capture a team's motivation. If your record is 2/1, I imagine you are more likely to try harder than if your record is 0/3 in the fourth match.
R4 = Number of Logistics ships.
So, for example, The data set would include this record for Notoriety's first game:
Ind Var = 1, they won the round. R1 = 0, they were completely new with no history. R2 = 0, no points before first match. R3 = 0, firt match. R4 = 2, Atleast I belive they fielded 2 logistics that game.
Find out what the coefficient for the R4 variable is and that would tell you just how important it is to winning matches. One could change the variables so that there were 16 independent variables, the four mentioned above for each of the four matches, and use a single dependent variable describing whether they made it into the elimination rounds --- This would give a truer indication as to whether Logistics actually help a team advance, as opposed to just helping a team win matches.
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"The Galaxy is only as big as you make it." - presumably Eve Game Designers. |
Alz Shado
Ever Flow
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Posted - 2008.03.05 21:47:00 -
[6]
Very interesting stats, thanks for the report!
You mention 1vs2 logistics briefly in the last post, but I can't find if there's a stat that matches "no logistics" broken down versus the 0/1/2 logistical setups. I'd be curious to know what the overall success rate for a pure gank squad is based on what the opponent fields.
------------------- "Kill a man one is a murderer; kill a million, a conqueror; kill them all, a God." -- Jean Rostand |
Avalira
Caldari
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Posted - 2008.03.05 23:14:00 -
[7]
Nice stats.
What would also be interesting to see, and this point has been mentioned a lot, is how many points were scored by dual, single or no-logistics setups. While a dual-logistics setup gives a bigger chance of survival it does decrease your fire-power and thus your chance to score points. At the moment by looking at the stats anyone would think it better to field two logistic ships, but if they score the fewer points when compared to non-logistics then maybe they seem overrated. --- Selling Rokh BPO ME 45
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ISD Tsuki Kiyuu
ISD Interstellar Correspondents
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Posted - 2008.03.07 03:20:00 -
[8]
Thanks to all three of you for the feedback and suggestions so far. We'll be looking into doing some more in-depth statistics as the tournament progresses and perhaps, winds down. It's always helpful to know what people want to see, and hopefully we can provide more of it.
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Cailais
Amarr VITOC Hedonistic Imperative
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Posted - 2008.03.07 18:03:00 -
[9]
Be interesting to throw ECM into this analysis as its the most effective counter to logistics - or is it?
C.
Improved Low Sec Idea!! |
Tusko Hopkins
HUN Corp. HUN Reloaded
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Posted - 2008.03.07 20:39:00 -
[10]
Sorry, little correction: match 30: dual logi vs our thoraxes and blackbird, logi setup has LOST the match.
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Cyclops43
Deeper Trouble
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Posted - 2008.03.17 22:08:00 -
[11]
I think an important statistic for this has not been calculated.
"In the matches where a dual-logistics team was present, how often was the match won by a dual-logistics team?"
If you include the 2-vs-2 logistics matches: 25 out of 30 were won by a dual-logistics team
If you don't include 2-vs-2 logistics matches: 19 out of 24 matches were won by a dual-logistics team
The last of these two figures is probably the best measure of the effectiveness of dual-logistics set-ups, and gives a success rate of 79% for dual-logistics teams! This (IMHO) makes a dual-logistics setup pretty close to an I-Win button. If properly balanced, the success rate of any 'standard' setup should be around 50%.
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