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Rita Leeds
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Posted - 2008.05.30 15:37:00 -
[1]
There's been a flood of T2 Ammo BPOs for sale in the last two weeks, and it makes one wonder why.
A couple of the sales are clearly from manufacturers getting out of the ammo buisiness, but there's still a large amount of bpos available.
I've been searching the forums and dev blogs, and even tried to listen to the most recent live dev blog (I couldn't get past the reading from the eve novel), but I can't see anything suggesting a nerf of any sort.
The only conclusion I've been able to come to is that the profit margin is so low on these prints now, that manufacturers are bailing out of the market. This is based on my own experience of owning several prints and humping goods all over the universe looking for markets to exploit.
Am I missing something? Is this just coincidence? Timing? What gives?
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Ramblin Man
The Scope
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Posted - 2008.05.30 15:58:00 -
[2]
People see II.
People spend too much money to buy it.
People realize their investment isn't viable.
People sell it.
Welcome to the dark side old friend. .Shar Where we hate people through words. |
Blue Dice
Flying While Intoxicated The Threshold
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Posted - 2008.05.30 15:59:00 -
[3]
I would say that your conclusion about profit margins is probably the right one.
The nerf has been made in an allready distant past, the last one was when faction ammo bacame available through LP rewards, which probably has lowered the demand for T2 ammo quite a bit.
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Qaedienne
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Posted - 2008.05.31 00:26:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Blue Dice I would say that your conclusion about profit margins is probably the right one.
The nerf has been made in an allready distant past, the last one was when faction ammo bacame available through LP rewards, which probably has lowered the demand for T2 ammo quite a bit.
This would be my bet. Mission runners would have easy access to faction ammo, and be among the biggest users of ammo in the game.
Which sucks when you think about it, as they removed a whole basket of heavily traded items off the player-manufacturing market.
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Seb Balaak
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Posted - 2008.05.31 01:14:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Seb Balaak on 31/05/2008 01:14:41 I'm using faction ammo as well for my pvp habits instead of tech II ammo, so that would be my bet as well.
It's just more bang for your buck, euhm, ISK. |
Chainsaw Plankton
IDLE GUNS IDLE EMPIRE
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Posted - 2008.05.31 03:50:00 -
[6]
with faction ammo the only t2 ammo really worth anything (imo) is the long range ammo, like scorch, javelin hams, aurora, spike, etc.
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Marcus Tedric
Tedric Enterprises The Star League
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Posted - 2008.05.31 09:00:00 -
[7]
Faction ammo, readily available, no drawbacks.
T2 Ammo - massive and completely over the top pre-nerfed disincentive.
T2 Ammo (I have a couple of BPOs) just isn't really worth building for the time and effort involved.
Nearly all T2 BPOs are not worth anything like the prices paid for them - there a bit like art in RL - totally over-valued for just something to look at....
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.05.31 18:09:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Marcus Tedric
Nearly all T2 BPOs are not worth anything like the prices paid for them - there a bit like art in RL - totally over-valued for just something to look at....
Yet people continue to pay top dollar for them, which really does tell me that many manufacturers have no clue as to how to turn a profit.
I've seen some BPOs go on the sell forum that have ROI in the 3 to 6 year range.
...it just boggles my mind how incompetent a builder can be sometimes. |
Lord Fitz
Antares Fleet Yards SMASH Alliance
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Posted - 2008.05.31 20:31:00 -
[9]
I just looked at a bunch of them and the profit margin if you buy all the materials was 0%. I'm guessing people are realising they're not making any money (or possibly losing money) and bailing out. T2 ammo is just not all that good, and has largely been displaced by faction ammo.
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Ramblin Man
The Scope
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Posted - 2008.05.31 22:36:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Originally by: Marcus Tedric
Nearly all T2 BPOs are not worth anything like the prices paid for them - there a bit like art in RL - totally over-valued for just something to look at....
Yet people continue to pay top dollar for them, which really does tell me that many manufacturers have no clue as to how to turn a profit.
I've seen some BPOs go on the sell forum that have ROI in the 3 to 6 year range.
...it just boggles my mind how incompetent a builder can be sometimes.
They're not manufacturers.
Yet another side effect of having too much ISK in the system. There's no CCP-recognized "inflation" because build costs are still controlled (coupled with the anyone-can-produce ethos), but the price of rare or limited-edition items is increasing.
Ergo, inflation by any other name.
Welcome to the dark side old friend. .Shar Where we hate people through words. |
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2008.06.01 00:37:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Marcus Tedric they're a bit like art in RL - totally over-valued for just something to look at....
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria Yet people continue to pay top dollar for them
Originally by: Ramblin Man They're not manufacturers. Yet another side effect of having too much ISK in the system.
Sums up the situation entirely. T2 Bpo's are a lot like, from what I've been told, British & American real estate markets. People buy in and simply later refuse to sell at "worth" but what they paid in plus some sort of wishful level of profit. They do not consider in value depreciation of any kind. For instance, on a home, one should consider how much money you saved "not renting". And mind you this is but one of many such considerations. So, applying this to a t2 bpo I would say purchase cost - product profits = return. People let their greed hyper inflate the perceived worth of the BPO. They see fools/lemmings chasing T2 bpo's for stupid prices and actually become convinced that they too can find a buyer at those prices. And the next buyer somehow believes that he too can find a buyer later on who will pay him what he paid plus that nebulous profit (just from reselling it) that he wants. I've said it before, people need to understand the imp's bottle. The T2 bpo market is pretty much the same just the values are inversed. It is all about who finally takes the total loss in the end. I.e. who winds up paying 5billion for a t2 small ammo bpo... that no one will pay more than 500m on. (Which is the most I'd pay for one... and only maybe.) Of course current T2 bpo owners, of which I am not anymore, don't want people to realize the true value of the market. If that realization did come about... they'd be the fools who didn't get out in time. Mind you I so love pointing this out more and more.
To Shar -verb: 1 - To say what you mean. 2 - To say what it means. 3 - To say something mean. |
Qaedienne
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Posted - 2008.06.01 00:39:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Ramblin Yet another side effect of having too much ISK in the system. There's no CCP-recognized "inflation" because build costs are still controlled (coupled with the anyone-can-produce ethos), but the price of rare or limited-edition items is increasing.
Ergo, inflation by any other name.
We are experiencing deflation, not inflation. Prices for all produced items are decreasing, not increasing. The supply of materials is outstripping the supply of ISK.
You can't base inflation off of static, irreplaceable items. Any economic growth will cause the price of them to go up.
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Opertone
SIEGE.
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Posted - 2008.06.01 16:56:00 -
[13]
the answer is obvious
tech 2 ammo gives little to no advantage over faction, t2 missiles are the worst case - precision give you -7.5% to speed, rage give -5% cap recharge. tech 2 rail gun ammo slows you down and reduces tracking.
the list can continue... after you stick in 7 rage missiles into your navy raven you can forget about speed and cap, in either case you become a sitting duck. Missile penalties are the wrost.
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Shakuul
Extreme Addiction
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Posted - 2008.06.01 20:25:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Qaedienne
Originally by: Ramblin Yet another side effect of having too much ISK in the system. There's no CCP-recognized "inflation" because build costs are still controlled (coupled with the anyone-can-produce ethos), but the price of rare or limited-edition items is increasing.
Ergo, inflation by any other name.
We are experiencing deflation, not inflation. Prices for all produced items are decreasing, not increasing. The supply of materials is outstripping the supply of ISK.
You can't base inflation off of static, irreplaceable items. Any economic growth will cause the price of them to go up.
Inflation is a rise in general level of prices of goods and services over time. Although "inflation" is sometimes used to refer to a rise in the prices of a specific set of goods or services, a rise in prices of one set (such as food) without a rise in others (such as wages) is not included in the original meaning of the word.
Inflation/deflation don't occur when a single item or class of items change in price. They occur when the whole market basket changes in price.
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Havok Pierce
D00M.
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Posted - 2008.06.01 23:59:00 -
[15]
The close-range weapon ammunition, however, is still viable for specific scenarios... which is why I use it.
Originally by: CCP Wrangler There's a Community petition category??
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Ramblin Man
The Scope
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Posted - 2008.06.02 01:28:00 -
[16]
The problem with using the (real world) definition of inflation is that it's predicated on subsequent (real world) uses. Inflation is defined the way it is, like a lot of economic metrics, because that definition allows you to do interesting things.
However, it doesn't intrinsically hold that... if a) we define (EVE) inflation = to (real world) inflation then b) that definition will allow us to do interesting things
Welcome to the dark side old friend. .Shar Where we hate people through words. |
Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.06.02 11:21:00 -
[17]
T2 bpos in EVE are like party hats in Runescape . Runescape is well known for its "whoever has the most party hats wins" rule!
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Ramblin Man
The Scope
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Posted - 2008.06.02 14:35:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Nyphur T2 bpos in EVE are like party hats in Runescape . Runescape is well known for its "whoever has the most party hats wins" rule!
I can bids 1.5B ISK for a party hat?
have love, willing to give it industrially .CCPGinger |
Shakuul
Extreme Addiction
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Posted - 2008.06.02 16:04:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Ramblin Man The problem with using the (real world) definition of inflation is that it's predicated on subsequent (real world) uses. Inflation is defined the way it is, like a lot of economic metrics, because that definition allows you to do interesting things.
However, it doesn't intrinsically hold that... if a) we define (EVE) inflation = to (real world) inflation then b) that definition will allow us to do interesting things
Baskets of goods exist in eve so we should be able to measure their price change. I just think it creates confusion when people refer to ANY price change as inflation or deflation.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.06.02 16:15:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Shakuul
Originally by: Ramblin Man The problem with using the (real world) definition of inflation is that it's predicated on subsequent (real world) uses. Inflation is defined the way it is, like a lot of economic metrics, because that definition allows you to do interesting things.
However, it doesn't intrinsically hold that... if a) we define (EVE) inflation = to (real world) inflation then b) that definition will allow us to do interesting things
Baskets of goods exist in eve so we should be able to measure their price change. I just think it creates confusion when people refer to ANY price change as inflation or deflation.
In T2 BPO terms there has been artificial inflation driven by speculation and as Shar put it, the Imp Problem. However it is artificial because in general terms EVE is not in a period of inflation. Goods are held at a more or less static price due to price controls and 6m isk will still get you a thorax, just as it would a year ago.
Eventually someone will get left holding the bag on T2 BPOs, and someone will come to there senses and realize that a ROI of 3 to 6 years is ludicrous in a game where major revisions can happen in a matter of 8 months. |
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M4ria
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Posted - 2008.06.02 19:02:00 -
[21]
Why is so much money paid for T2 BPOs ?
I guess one part of the Awnser is you can build items for yourself and your corp/ally which makes supply way easier (everyone that owns a Crow BPO i.e. know that he wouldn't have 100 crows lying around in his hangar for PvP if he wouldn't own the BPO)
Next one is that T2 BPOs aren't seeded anymore which means ppl are paying 2-3.5 years of profite (never seen 6 years except for in the topic stated ammo bpos which are craziely overvalued) because you can always resell for that amount of ISK as it is a rule of thumb that they are worth it. My Corp owns a lot of T2 BPOs to be honest (atm 40) and they are all bought. We get a profite of 15 - 30 b each month. Ofc we could do a lot more profite if we would sell all T2 BPOs and use the money, we get out of it, for diffrent stuff. But as we are only an Alt-Corp for a PvP-Corp, T2 Production is way easier then market speculation (even invention is way easier) and i guess that is one of the main points: T2 Production is 'quite' easy.We are building T2 Compos on our own, selling in a lot of regions and are putting up market buy-orders instead of simply buying from market.
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Ramblin Man
Empyreum
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Posted - 2008.06.03 14:04:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Shakuul
Originally by: Ramblin Man The problem with using the (real world) definition of inflation is that it's predicated on subsequent (real world) uses. Inflation is defined the way it is, like a lot of economic metrics, because that definition allows you to do interesting things.
However, it doesn't intrinsically hold that... if a) we define (EVE) inflation = to (real world) inflation then b) that definition will allow us to do interesting things
Baskets of goods exist in eve so we should be able to measure their price change. I just think it creates confusion when people refer to ANY price change as inflation or deflation.
My battery went out just as I was about to elaborate. Buuuut, thanks for asking the question.
Other things that might have an impact on whether or not RL inflation measures are applicable to EVE: -- Does the real world have large numbers of perfectly inelastic goods making up major sectors of the economy? (POS modules, skills, NPC POS fuel, and to a certain degree all minerals aside from morphite[?]) -- Does the real world put veteran manufacturers on an equal playing field with anyone new who wants to jump in? (Prod.Effi. V isn't enough of a speed bump to count; coupled with an infinite supply of BPOs)
Nobody would try and make an argument based on, f.ex., gravity, because they would recognize that it simply doesn't exist in EVE. Yet it's amazing to see the number of real life economic theories / terms that get thrown around without people examining their bases in light of EVE's mechanics.
The end result is to have a useful term, not just a ported echo of something from real economics. Ergo, Dr.E should probably be throwing things out left and right, in addition to putting a slew of caveats, on any terminology he uses. Because the simple fact is that RL != EVE.
have love, willing to give it industrially .CCPGinger |
Chainsaw Plankton
IDLE GUNS IDLE EMPIRE
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Posted - 2008.06.04 06:50:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Marcus Tedric they're a bit like art in RL - totally over-valued for just something to look at....
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria Yet people continue to pay top dollar for them
Originally by: Ramblin Man They're not manufacturers. Yet another side effect of having too much ISK in the system.
Sums up the situation entirely. T2 Bpo's are a lot like, from what I've been told, British & American real estate markets. People buy in and simply later refuse to sell at "worth" but what they paid in plus some sort of wishful level of profit. They do not consider in value depreciation of any kind. For instance, on a home, one should consider how much money you saved "not renting". And mind you this is but one of many such considerations. So, applying this to a t2 bpo I would say purchase cost - product profits = return. People let their greed hyper inflate the perceived worth of the BPO. They see fools/lemmings chasing T2 bpo's for stupid prices and actually become convinced that they too can find a buyer at those prices. And the next buyer somehow believes that he too can find a buyer later on who will pay him what he paid plus that nebulous profit (just from reselling it) that he wants. I've said it before, people need to understand the imp's bottle. The T2 bpo market is pretty much the same just the values are inversed. It is all about who finally takes the total loss in the end. I.e. who winds up paying 5billion for a t2 small ammo bpo... that no one will pay more than 500m on. (Which is the most I'd pay for one... and only maybe.) Of course current T2 bpo owners, of which I am not anymore, don't want people to realize the true value of the market. If that realization did come about... they'd be the fools who didn't get out in time. Mind you I so love pointing this out more and more.
let me know where I can get a scorch L bpo for under 500mil please on second thought a scorch M bpo too
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2008.06.04 06:55:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Chainsaw Plankton let me know where I can get a scorch L bpo for under 500mil please on second thought a scorch M bpo too
Hanging your hat on "exceptions to the rule" only demonstrates how exceptionally clueless you can be. Perhaps you should spare the keyboard and put your hand on your idle gun. Make us both happier I'm sure.
To Shar -verb: 1 - To say what you mean. 2 - To say what it means. 3 - To say something mean. |
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