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Shakuul
Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2008.06.07 02:08:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Shakuul on 07/06/2008 02:29:39 Based on this, faction navies will not warp scramble and will take a significant amount of time to start pursuing you and attacking you.
Originally by: "Matt Woodward on EA" But they won't warp scramble you, so you'll be able to get away. Just don't hang around, because they'll be following you. So if you're going through high sec and you want to take a shortcut, just keep going. You'll slide through and you'll be fine. But if you want to hang around, the navy is going to come after you and it going to make your life difficult.
Freighters have tons of hp, and anything else has a short enough align time, plus with WTZ they can travel quickly, so movement of goods to and from Jita should continue unimpeded. All it seems like it would prevent is me flying my badger full of T2 from Oursulaert to Jita, but suicide gankers already do this. Furthermore, I'm sure almost any serious trader/industrialist/etc has an alt that they use, who will in no way be involved in FW, so even if faction navies were a threat, they would continue to get their goods delivered.
I mean...it might create a second Motsu around one of the Black Rise entry points (my guess would be that .7 system in Lonetrek)...but thats about it.
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Vhaluus
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Posted - 2008.06.07 02:41:00 -
[2]
Jita isn't Jita because of the hardcore traders/industrialist. Its the hub of eve because of all the little players who go there to buy stuff and they may NOT have bothered to set up alts to haul gear for them.
hubs are created by demand as well as supply, as demand reduces so will supply as the industrialists and traders chase the new opportunities in other areas.
It won't destroy Jita as the super hub, its at the point where even if there was a large enough shift to do this it'd still take a long time. But it will reduce it slightly from its current levels imho.
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Frenden Dax
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Posted - 2008.06.07 03:08:00 -
[3]
If the hub shifts to Rens, I'm going to cry.
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FireFoxx80
E X O D U S Imperial Republic Of the North
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Posted - 2008.06.07 10:41:00 -
[4]
It'll reduce Jita's importance, as there's going to be a lot more hubs in Caldari space which are closer to both 0.0 and Black Rise.
I'd put my money near Nonni/Oipo.
What I do the rest of the time - Vote for a Jita bypass! |
Carniflex
Fallout Research Fallout Project
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Posted - 2008.06.07 10:45:00 -
[5]
For a starter FW will not affect jita in my opinion to any noticeable degree as everyone and his dog can and will do trade alt. It takes what, approx 1h of training to get your new alt into Bestower. Most people who have seen even a few empire wars already have those alts. Hell most even semiorganized corps have out of corp freighter alts also.
And as far as freighters and faction navies go I doubt that anybody would be stupid enough to put his freighter pilot into militia. It's not the navy you should be worried about. It's other players that WILL warp scram you. You might as well fly around your freighter during regular empire wars in jita route, result will be the same.
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Jason Edwards
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Posted - 2008.06.07 15:44:00 -
[6]
It's because 1 tackler... even a measly interceptor can pretty much take out any target in 0.7
You just have to tackle and wait for the navies to kill them. The added little bit of dps doesn't hurt neither.
Jita is a 0.9 system and it's biiiig dps. Much more then 0.7 you also get 2 of the battleships who have some serious neuts.
If you're going to bet haulers/freighters on the hope that there's no war targets on your route... especially in jita who might tackle you... you're screwed so hard.
Quote: Freighters have tons of hp, and anything else has a short enough align time, plus with WTZ they can travel quickly, so movement of goods to and from Jita should continue unimpeded.
What's the system connected with synchelle? Going into caldari space? Which is high sec? Which is the link between jita and oursulaert? You can bet yourself that there's going to be people camping there waiting for people who think it's possible to warp quickly. Not to mention remote sensor boosted heavy interdictors ... the kind who can lock and scramble at 30km range in less then 1 second... the same guy who can lock pods before they can warp... You also can be guarenteed no big battleships are going to jump there... cap neuted and thusly amarr/gallente ships cant even shoot... no active tanks can tank.
Oh and blockade runner? No cloak allowed... "your cloak is disrupted by the police following you"
No gallente or minmatar will be going to jita. I can guarentee that. ------------------------ "There was this bright flash of light - and now this egg shaped thing is on my screen - did I level up?" |
Qaedienne
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Posted - 2008.06.07 17:44:00 -
[7]
I doubt it will have an impact. Plenty of sub-hubs exist today due to mission runners, and mission runners don't face any travel restrictions at all. They could all travel freely to Jita to grab equipment, but enterprising commercialists provide it in their area for them.
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Khatred
ReallyPissedOff Guinea Pigs
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Posted - 2008.06.07 17:57:00 -
[8]
Jita will dissapear as a trade hub when gallente admirals will suicide their motherships in each and every station there.
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Kushion
Anti Sweden Defense Force Virtue of Selfishness
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Posted - 2008.06.07 20:17:00 -
[9]
It's going to have *some* effect on jita - how much, I'm not sure. Between the amount of dps they do and other players scrambling you, traveling to jita will be suicide in anything without really good align time. Even then... *one* lag spike, and the navy is all over you (they arrive fast)
A lot of ships will be destroyed, and not everyone will be able to/want to go to jita. Existing alternate trade hubs will see increased traffic, and new ones may appear. --
Taggart Transdimensional corporation - | Capitalism | Objectivism | 0.0 | No taxes | No mandatory ops | Join channel TAGGART for more |
Admiral Kwint
Lothian Quay Industries
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Posted - 2008.06.07 20:31:00 -
[10]
Here's the SHC take on it.
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Jason Edwards
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Posted - 2008.06.07 20:55:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Qaedienne I doubt it will have an impact. Plenty of sub-hubs exist today due to mission runners, and mission runners don't face any travel restrictions at all. They could all travel freely to Jita to grab equipment, but enterprising commercialists provide it in their area for them.
Jita will be the main hub. Oursulaert for example will strengthen and more neutral freighters will start moving products from jita to the system.
Not everyone will have alts and many might see having an alt not as necessary. Frankly the prices in oursulaert are more stable then jita and basically the same prices also. ------------------------ "There was this bright flash of light - and now this egg shaped thing is on my screen - did I level up?" |
Ulstan
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Posted - 2008.06.08 01:38:00 -
[12]
The only folks the Caldari Navy will care about are the people in gallente militias.
I don't think people are going to put their trade alts in the gallente militia.
Still there are no doubt a few people who trade in person who will join the gallente militia and go to another hub. Not all that many though.
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PublicRelations Kwint
Lothian Quay Industries
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Posted - 2008.06.08 02:30:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Ulstan The only folks the Caldari Navy will care about are the people in gallente militias.
I don't think people are going to put their trade alts in the gallente militia.
Still there are no doubt a few people who trade in person who will join the gallente militia and go to another hub. Not all that many though.
It's Gallente and Minmatar but your point still stands.
The decently sized FW corps will have alts to get whatever they need. The only ones who might not are the relatively young players in the NPC militias and they represent a pretty small amount of spending power. All in all I doubt there will be much, if any, of an impact on Jita. New hubs will grow and some of the old may be revitalized by I just don't see Jita taking a hit.
Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.06.08 02:34:00 -
[14]
I think everyone forgets how lazy the bulk of the EVE populace is otherwise I wouldn't be selling hammerhead IIs at 30% margin |
Alex555
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Posted - 2008.06.08 08:14:00 -
[15]
Edited by: Alex555 on 08/06/2008 08:14:13 jita remains jita
even if the overall turnover decrases a bit, still no station will match it
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Havok Pierce
D00M.
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Posted - 2008.06.11 13:46:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Khatred Jita will dissapear as a trade hub when gallente admirals will suicide their motherships in each and every station there.
Sounds like a good idea--I'll go poll the Admiralty. I'm sure we've got enough Nyxes to do the job.
Originally by: CCP Wrangler There's a Community petition category??
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Sarah Dent
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Posted - 2008.06.11 13:57:00 -
[17]
Don't forget that end use products go to jita and go out of jita. And the people who use the end use products may not be huge market people like we are, they are the PVPers and missioners who use and expend all those nice weapons we happy day trade.
And if they have to run a gauntlet to get to jita because they are involved in FW, they are going to do the natural thing, get lazy, and go to other trade hubs to buy their ship equipment.
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Hexxx
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Posted - 2008.06.11 14:37:00 -
[18]
Jita is a product of the manifestation of Metcalfe's Law (also known as Network Effects). Jita is valuable as a utility, and as such, people find value in going there to trade.
a) Buyers find the most sellers in one place, so they go there to get a good price.
b) Sellers find the most buyers in one place, so they go there to get a good price.
Jita is a trading hub, and the value of it is exponential to the number of buyers/sellers in that network/hub. This value is expressed with the following equation:
n^2 where "n" equals the relative number of buyers/sellers.
You can read more about network effects in relation to microeconomics on this wikipedia article:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect
Keep in mind one that there are negative network effects. Negative network effects can result from resource limitation. To apply this to our current object of discussion, lag is caused by the resource limitation of so many users trading/flying/docking in Jita at any one time.
Another related subject is critical mass, which is required to create a "super hub" like Jita. Smaller more localized hubs are products of the same rules and principles.
Now...how do we apply these principals to the shifting landscape of trade hubs?
Resource limitations can have a very big effect on these trade hubs. Resource limitations come from lag, gate camps, and traffic routes. Limiting or hindering the methods used to reach a trade hub and use it decreases the value of that utility. Decrease the value of that utility enough and people will look for a substitute trade hub which suffers from less resource limitations.
At any rate...you're thinking in the right direction, just trying to help you refine your theories.
Director | www.eve-bank.net
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Selene D'Celeste
The D'Celeste Trading Company
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Posted - 2008.06.11 15:38:00 -
[19]
I love it when you post Hexxx. Almost makes me reading MD for the first time in many days worth it =P |
little sis
At Swords' Points
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Posted - 2008.06.11 17:00:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Frenden Dax If the hub shifts to Rens, I'm going to cry.
I will be happier. |
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SencneS
Rebellion Against big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2008.06.11 20:50:00 -
[21]
Considering the high-sec systems in Black Rise are between 6 and 8 jumps from Jita I highly doubt Black Rise will have any impact on Jita.
What will impact Jita is the FW Pilots unwilling to risk the travel time to Jita to buy their stuff.
This mean Jita will probably turn into more of a Warehouse for Traders to buy up items other traders are selling, and move them to The factional hubs.
Traders that place FW Regional buy orders for that empires items will probably move it to Jita for bulk sale.
Lets say in Minmatar Space the stuff most Minmatar pilot fly Minmatar ships, so the ships they'll be destroying will be Amarr and Caldari. Which means they'll be scooping loot for those ships more so then other factions.
Since the demand for Amarr and Caldari "Mods" in Minmatar space are less then Minmatar mods they will be sold relatively cheaper. Traders will use this to purchase those cheaper mods and move them to Amarr/Caldari space where the demand is naturally higher. What may happen is they move it to Jita instead and sell them there at the "Warehouse" hub.
For those that sell at Jita, you'll have the same traders that are selling the Amarr/Caldari stuff, will probably place buy orders at the FW hubs for Minmatar and Gallantte mods. Will will naturally be cheaper due to demand not being as high, and supply being higher because those are the ships dieing more so in Amarr/Caldari FW regions.
So I believe Jita will not get any smaller, but it's roll may change from a single player onesy, twosy demand to a traders bulk purchase demand.
What I do see happening is the FW regions will have a stronger hub simply because people are lazy. There is no reason why I can sell drones for 25-50% markup then a system 6 jumps away in a different region, other then pure laziness. |
Hexxx
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Posted - 2008.06.11 21:41:00 -
[22]
This is probably a futile attempt but....
value of trade hub = distance to other trade hubs + immiediacy of need for item to buy/sell + (number of buy/sell orders * different kinds of items that are commonly in demand)
This formula explains the natural rise of trade hubs in mission running stations, where the mission runner's immiediate need to buy or sell an item PLUS the distance to other trade hubs (ignoring that they may be in one already) means that the value of that station as a "trade hub" is higher than a random station.
If memory serves, jita used to have quite a few mission agents of good quality, this could explain part of it's rise. Once it neared critical mass, the distance factor came into play as people found it simpler and easier to just go there then to travel elsewhere.
Soon it gained enough mass that it's gravitational pull attracted others, despite the fact that it was sometimes inconvenient to travel to. This is also partly explained by the weight attributed to the number of orders and diversity of the items.
Yeah...this is what I do for fun. |
Matthew
BloodStar Technologies
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Posted - 2008.06.11 23:11:00 -
[23]
Personally, I would expect Jita to remain as the large-scale market clearing house it is now. The people who operate that sort of operation will not be involved in FW, so it will have very little impact on them. I would still expect to see major volumes going through Jita, and the trade in low volume goods that cannot support multiple hubs will remain there.
Where I do expect it to have an effect is at the consumer level. It's likely to add a barrier to the "Jita shopping trip", at least for FW players. This is going to increase the value of having goods in places other than Jita.
Another element of FW that will prioritize the availability of supplies locally are the time limits inherent in the FW mechanics. By the time you've afk'ed to Jita, grabbed your new gear and got back to the front, whatever system or complex you were trying to claim will already have gone.
Then there's the influence of FW on the type of goods that people will be demanding. Travelling to Jita for your CNR and faction fittings is one thing. Going there to replenish your destroyer swarm is going to be much less appealing. ------- There is no magic Wand of Fixing, and it is not powered by forum whines. |
Ava Santiago
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Posted - 2008.06.12 04:45:00 -
[24]
The real answer is we don't know.
It is not clear that a sizable portion of players will join factions - OTHER THAN CALDARI. Jita's loss from individual players that lack access to hauling alts could easily be offset by the migration of players into Black rise. Depending on incentive patterns created by proximity and player migration to Black Rise, we could see Jita acquire additional players due to the power of it's network effects.
I would bet that the volumes in Jita will increase if players move to Black Rise from anywhere but Caldari space.
Metcalf's law is powerful. And empire players habitually shop in Jita - and they are used to not losing that many ships. So "foot traffic" could dramatically increase. |
Jmanis Catharg
State Protectorate
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Posted - 2008.06.12 05:24:00 -
[25]
I can't see why systems at low-sec entry points can't become hubs for this. With missions generally 10-16 jumps from your agent, and target systems 3-5 jumps from a low-sec entry, I'd much rather buy stuff at the target after ninjaing through low sec in an inty rather than traipsing my battleship across 14 jumps.
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YouGotRipped
Ewigkeit
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Posted - 2008.06.12 12:58:00 -
[26]
Edited by: YouGotRipped on 12/06/2008 13:03:49
Perhaps we should use Jita as the rally point and HQ for directing the FW effort in Caldari space. Joking. |
Transvaal
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Posted - 2008.06.16 09:46:00 -
[27]
I've noticed that big hubs tend to have a mini-hub or two around them where orders placed can intercept traffic to big hubs by being one or two sectors closer to the majority of sectors in a given region (cutting off buyers from that part of the region). Also, these mini-hubs have less 0.01 competition. The lower traffic is compensated for by the increased percentage of time that your orders are the best priced. Lots of money can be made in these stations... with much less 0.01 hassle.
New trade hubs might have a deeper impact on these mini-hubs than on the big hubs.
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Clair Bear
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Posted - 2008.06.19 17:49:00 -
[28]
Want to avoid the camps and long shleps to your FW missions? Think black ops. Think ice products, covops cyno, bombers. Buying, rigging and fitting a mission ship in every freaking FW system in the region is not even close to an intelligent approach.
As far as OP: the biggest effects will be faction standings hits on any real players (not alts) playing with FW. They'll be cut off from Jita for any large scale trading so convenience shopping elsewhere will be more of a factor. For bulk sales see alt haulers/sellers presented above.
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Pwett
QUANT Corp. QUANT Hegemony
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Posted - 2008.06.19 18:06:00 -
[29]
Even if we assume that everyone plays FW and thus the outer hubs substantially rise in volume, Jita will probably still serve the role of the central hub, suppling the needs of the lesser hubs. _______________ Pwett CEO, Founder, & Executor <Q> QUANT Hegemony
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Idrift
Meta Trading Corporation
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Posted - 2008.06.20 22:24:00 -
[30]
Main difference I am seeing at Jita now is more bulk sales, not really more sales nor faster, but people buying in quantity.
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