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Taikun
Gallente
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Posted - 2008.07.03 08:32:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Taikun on 03/07/2008 08:37:02 First let me say this is not a whine about high sec ganking thread. It about understanding the profit calculation & motiavtion of high sec freighter gankers to manage transport & logistics more effectivly.
Back before the drone nerf on high sec freighter ganking I did a 'back of the envelope' calculation on the throretical limit on hauling to avoid being a tempting target.
Here is an updated chicken scratch.
-Cost to the pirates for hip, modules and insurance refund: 25-35 million. -Number of pirates to get the job done: 15-25.
So... cost to pirates for freighter take down:
25m X 15 = 375m 35m X 25 = 875m
Assuming 40%-60% load destruction. (This does not cover things like single T2 BPOS, rather loads of minerals etc)
Max AFK haulage @ 40% destruction: 525m - 1,225m Max AFK haulage @ 60% destruction: 600m - 1,400m
Reminder, this is 'break even' for the high sec pirate gankers. Of course I have assumed they will only gank for a profit motivation.
Of course I am not saying this is the definative understanding of this issue. I post because I welcome others to share to share their thoughts and calculations.
Taikun
A criminal is a person with predatory instincts who has not sufficient capital to form a corporation. |
Blydchyld
Caldari Galactic Extensive Enterprises
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Posted - 2008.07.03 08:42:00 -
[2]
You have to take into the account the fear it causes traders, to the point where they have too calculate how much than can carry without getting ganked, fear is worth about 1Bn.
I LIKE ARK!
The above post is my post and does not represent the views of any entity, If my views have upset you PM me |
Taikun
Gallente
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Posted - 2008.07.03 08:50:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Blydchyld You have to take into the account the fear it causes traders, to the point where they have too calculate how much than can carry without getting ganked, fear is worth about 1Bn.
Irrelevent. It is the price of doing business. High sec gankers presence is nothing but a calculation of risk vesus reward. This of course is eventually passed along to the end consumer in the forms of higher prices or a limited supply of goods in areas.
Which is the point of this thread. As soon as people know what this break even is, high sec ganking of freighters will be a thing of the past... except for the completely stupid who exceed these numbers through stupidity or ignorance.
Taikun
A criminal is a person with predatory instincts who has not sufficient capital to form a corporation. |
Qui Shon
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Posted - 2008.07.03 08:56:00 -
[4]
The smart, organized ganker corp can have their ships for free, that's how messed up "insurance" prices are. If they don't really care, but are willing to put in a modicum of market browsing and use, 10mil.
If they insist on using Ravens, and actually put T2 mods on them (LOL) then maybe 35-40mil, but there is absolutely NO reason they need to do that.
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Taikun
Gallente
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Posted - 2008.07.03 08:58:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Qui Shon The smart, organized ganker corp can have their ships for free, that's how messed up "insurance" prices are.
Could you elaborate on this statement please? It is interesting.
Taikun
A criminal is a person with predatory instincts who has not sufficient capital to form a corporation. |
Chainsaw Plankton
IDLE GUNS IDLE EMPIRE
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Posted - 2008.07.03 09:06:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Qui Shon The smart, organized ganker corp can have their ships for free, that's how messed up "insurance" prices are. If they don't really care, but are willing to put in a modicum of market browsing and use, 10mil.
If they insist on using Ravens, and actually put T2 mods on them (LOL) then maybe 35-40mil, but there is absolutely NO reason they need to do that.
not quite free, but close
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Zinras
Caldari Order of draugr
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Posted - 2008.07.03 09:07:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Taikun
Originally by: Qui Shon The smart, organized ganker corp can have their ships for free, that's how messed up "insurance" prices are.
Could you elaborate on this statement please? It is interesting.
Taikun
It's because of the ridiculous insurance payouts. I dont know the exact numbers because I haven't done the math on it but even if they used Ravens, a ship like that costs 84-85 mill with no fitting.. Then add 30 something for top insurance and you're looking at a net loss of a couple of million or something without fittings. With cheap fittings, each pirate might only need a few million in profit from doing it to break even.
If they fly smaller ships like cruisers and BCs, I imagine the necessary profit to break even becomes smaller.
Originally by: CCP Greyscale *moderated - mother abuse - Mitnal*
CCP's best friend |
Qui Shon
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Posted - 2008.07.03 09:10:00 -
[8]
Edited by: Qui Shon on 03/07/2008 09:11:46
I'm not going to post details, because it seems to me there are a *lot* of not very bright gankmonkeys out there, and I have no desire to help them exploit this ridiculous state of affairs. The smarter ones already know this, I can't affect them.
Just look at a few options for setups, check the major markets for mod alternatives, check the insurance cost and payout as well as mineral prices.
If a corp needs 50 ships for 0 isk, that is going to take a while, but it's perfectly doable. 500mil cost is easy (i.e. 10mil / ship).
When I did this calc, some months ago, I came up with two different 1000dps ships (with my skills) that would have cost me 10mil each total, using SELL orders, after insurance fee is paid and then collected. And this is not counting my own wreck, what it nets in dropped mods and salvage.
Honestly, people who go on about the situation being fine, I just don't know what they've been smoking.
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Taikun
Gallente
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Posted - 2008.07.03 09:15:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Zinras It's because of the ridiculous insurance payouts. I dont know the exact numbers because I haven't done the math on it but even if they used Ravens, a ship like that costs 84-85 mill with no fitting.. Then add 30 something for top insurance and you're looking at a net loss of a couple of million or something without fittings.
Let's attempt the math.
Total cost for the pirate for your raven example: 85m + 30m = 115m
Are you saying that the insurance payment is near the 110-115m area? That assessment seems rather unrealistic to me just for the ship itself.
Taikun
A criminal is a person with predatory instincts who has not sufficient capital to form a corporation. |
Zinras
Caldari Order of draugr
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Posted - 2008.07.03 09:37:00 -
[10]
Edited by: Zinras on 03/07/2008 09:38:41
Originally by: Taikun
Originally by: Zinras It's because of the ridiculous insurance payouts. I dont know the exact numbers because I haven't done the math on it but even if they used Ravens, a ship like that costs 84-85 mill with no fitting.. Then add 30 something for top insurance and you're looking at a net loss of a couple of million or something without fittings.
Let's attempt the math.
Total cost for the pirate for your raven example: 85m + 30m = 115m
Are you saying that the insurance payment is near the 110-115m area? That assessment seems rather unrealistic to me just for the ship itself.
Taikun
Pretty much. The cheapest Raven I can see at the moment goes for 84.5 mill.
I have the second best insurance on my Raven that costs 27 million and pays out 101 million, as I recall (I believe platinum is 32 million in cost or so and pays in the 110-120 mill area).
84.5 + 27 - 101 = 10.5 million ISK loss. And the Raven is a pretty expensive example, I believe. I think you can almost make money by doing it with Domies.
Now if you add cheap modules as well as they probably produce most stuff by themselves, you can see how even a BS isn't much of a loss for a gank squad.
The reason why insurance is horribly broken is because it's based on some standard price CCP introduced with the Raven. But since then, the market has been swamped with just about everything which means a massive price cut over time (a Raven was around 120 mill or so when I started, I think, a drop of around 35 million ISK -- In a month, a Raven will probably go for 80-82 million).
Originally by: CCP Greyscale *moderated - mother abuse - Mitnal*
CCP's best friend |
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Shintai
Gallente Balad Naran Orbital Shipyards
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Posted - 2008.07.03 09:43:00 -
[11]
^^ insert Platinum insurrance.
Anyway, to add fuel to this because its REALLY broken.
I was in Jita some time ago, instant warped out from 4-4 to the planet ahead. A Raven warps with me, just to start self destruct while there. No fittings, empty etc. In short, that person earned money on self destructing the ship due to the crappy insurance system. So it doesnt take much to add for 5-10mil in fittings on top for a suicide gang.
I guess the actual loss per player in a suicide gang is about 5-10mil. Thats a peak of 250mil loss for a 25man gang. The only real loss is the small sec loss.
Thats why its quite common to see freight containers at gates when you travel...
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Abstraction and Transcendence: Nature, Shintai, and Geometry |
Nocturnal Avenger
Black Plague. RAZOR Alliance
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Posted - 2008.07.03 09:50:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Chainsaw Plankton not quite free, but close
So - what you really want, is to increase your buffer so much, that even a dedicated camp won't make it in time.
- Carebear Pirate - |
Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles Zzz
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Posted - 2008.07.03 09:50:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Kazuo Ishiguro on 03/07/2008 09:52:03 Have a look at the insurance numbers for virtually any T1 ship - they scale up. As things stand, payouts for platinum cover are typically greater than the sell order cost of the ship, so the only loss is part of the insurance premium, which itself is about 30% of the cost of the ship.
Basic T1 fittings cost virtually nothing; the only luxury is a few rounds of faction ammo for a quick 15% damage boost. Also, you get another 15% on top of that from overloading your guns (since you're only using them for a short time).
A freighter has about 175k hp. In a 0.5 system, you have 24 seconds until Concord shows up, so you only need to achieve about 7500 dps. Freighters are ideal targets, so virtually every shot will hit. This can be done, with time to spare, with 9 Dominixes or about 15 Brutixes, all T1 fit, without any tanks. The cost is fairly similar, but I prefer the Dominixes as that way fewer pilots have to split the loot between them.
The main limiting factor here is probably that after splitting the rewards 9 ways or more, people might find that they could have made a greater individual profit from going after smaller targets on their own for the same loss of sec status. A lot of people do haul quite valuable cargo, especially implants, afk in very small ships. Zzz research towers Direrie NEW: Liekuri
20:1 low-end compression |
Banana Torres
Federal Defence Union
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Posted - 2008.07.03 10:25:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Taikun -Cost to the pirates for ship, modules and insurance refund: 25-35 million.
Nothing like that, in fact the last time I did this I built the BSs myself and the cost of the ships was pretty much covered by the insurance.
We filled them with second best named items at a cost of less than 3 million per bs and of course we got some of them back.
And salavaging BSs does give so nice salavage components as well.
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El'Niaga
Minmatar Republic Military School
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Posted - 2008.07.03 10:35:00 -
[15]
OP, You're figures are way off, we can do it practically for free....
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Victor Valka
Caldari Kissaki Corporation
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Posted - 2008.07.03 10:56:00 -
[16]
This has been in discussion for a long time. My personal thoughts are:
- Payout only to victims of ship destruction resulting from criminal aggression or destruction by a criminal entity under any conditions.
Any argument against this, particularly the one that says that implementing this will severally decrease the amount of PvP encounters, is moot.
This will decrease the number of battleships on the field, yes. But sub-battleship warfare is where the most action should be.
Originally by: Roxanna Kell You are insane.
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Chainsaw Plankton
IDLE GUNS IDLE EMPIRE
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Posted - 2008.07.03 11:05:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Victor Valka This has been in discussion for a long time. My personal thoughts are:
- Payout only to victims of ship destruction resulting from criminal aggression or destruction by a criminal entity under any conditions.
Any argument against this, particularly the one that says that implementing this will severally decrease the amount of PvP encounters, is moot.
This will decrease the number of battleships on the field, yes. But sub-battleship warfare is where the most action should be.
/me fits up 10k shield badger and goes afk
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Shintai
Gallente Balad Naran Orbital Shipyards
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Posted - 2008.07.03 11:12:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Nocturnal Avenger
Originally by: Chainsaw Plankton not quite free, but close
So - what you really want, is to increase your buffer so much, that even a dedicated camp won't make it in time.
I just think most people want an actual risk for the attackers. You could gank an empty freighter for fun for something around 0-100mil. Maybe even make a profit on it with a lucky salvage of your own BSs.
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Abstraction and Transcendence: Nature, Shintai, and Geometry |
Cpt Branko
Surge. NIght's Dawn
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Posted - 2008.07.03 11:34:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Cpt Branko on 03/07/2008 11:34:12 The reason why people use T2 mods and stuff is, well, while you could do it in 40 T1 fit brutixes, splitting 1B of loot 40 ways means everyone gets a measly 25M, while if you do it in 12 (partially T2 fit) Ravens everyone gets 83M, and after paying for 25M of ship loss with fittings, it's still more profit.
I hope that illustrates why people mostly T2 (or named) fit (guns/bcus) and load faction ammo on their suicide ships. While you can do it with more crap, splitting more ways doesn't pay off.
Also, if premium insurance is 33M, the payout definitely isn't 110M, it's 100M.
You all are forgetting time as a factor.
Sig removed, inappropriate link. If you would like further details please mail [email protected] ~Saint |
Malcanis
We are Legend
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Posted - 2008.07.03 11:36:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Blydchyld You have to take into the account the fear it causes traders, to the point where they have too calculate how much than can carry without getting ganked, fear is worth about 1Bn.
You also have to take into account time. Highly skilled BS pilots will want a bare minimum of 20-30M ISK per hour they spend, plus additional compensation for the sec hit. I can't see anyone of that order bothering for less than a couple of hundred million each.
CONCORD provide consequences, not safety; only you can do that. |
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Qui Shon
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Posted - 2008.07.03 11:55:00 -
[21]
Edited by: Qui Shon on 03/07/2008 11:56:49
Originally by: Cpt Branko
You all are forgetting time as a factor.
You mean the time the missionrunner/hauler spent aquiring his stuff, or the time he will spend replacing it?
Because the time the gankers spend is meaningless, by comparison, and as such has no place in a balance discussion.
Ofc, you probably weren't discussing balance, just your own gain calcs/thoughts.
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Meroze
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Posted - 2008.07.03 11:57:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Shintai ^^ insert Platinum insurrance.
Anyway, to add fuel to this because its REALLY broken.
I was in Jita some time ago, instant warped out from 4-4 to the planet ahead. A Raven warps with me, just to start self destruct while there. No fittings, empty etc. In short, that person earned money on self destructing the ship due to the crappy insurance system.
You can make even more money by salvaging your own wrecks.
Buy the 10 cheapest Ravens (for example).
Give them platinum insurance.
No fittings.
Warp them to a safe spot and self destruct them.
Go salvage the wrecks. Amongst other stuff, you'll more than likely to get a few Trit bars.
Sell your salvage and count your insurance payments.
Congratulations, you're now considerably richer than when you first bought the 10 Ravens in the first place.
Insurance = a patheticly broken isk faucet that does nothing but flood the eve economy with easy RISK FREE isk!
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Malcanis
We are Legend
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Posted - 2008.07.03 12:00:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Qui Shon Edited by: Qui Shon on 03/07/2008 11:56:49
Originally by: Cpt Branko
You all are forgetting time as a factor.
You mean the time the missionrunner/hauler spent aquiring his stuff, or the time he will spend replacing it?
Because the time the gankers spend is meaningless, by comparison, and as such has no place in a balance discussion.
Ofc, you probably weren't discussing balance, just your own gain calcs/thoughts.
The ganker's time is NOT meaningless unless they themselves place no value on it. Unlikely.
CONCORD provide consequences, not safety; only you can do that. |
Kalintos Tyl
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Posted - 2008.07.03 12:06:00 -
[24]
you will losse isk. pepole forget that they paid for insurence :D
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An Anarchyyt
Gallente Battlestars GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2008.07.03 12:15:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Victor Valka But sub-battleship warfare is where the most action should be.
According to who?
Originally by: CCP Wrangler Second, a gentile is a non jewish person
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Cpt Branko
Surge. NIght's Dawn
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Posted - 2008.07.03 12:25:00 -
[26]
Besides, a Raven hull costs 11M to lose itself, if we're going to believe that the lowest price you can see is 84.5M for a Raven.
Insurance payout is from what I can see 108.75M, insurance cost is according to that, 36.25M.
So, no, self-destructing Ravens doesn't pay, you lose ISK unless you're one of the mentally challenged folks who thinks if they mined it themselves it's free. If you're going to fit it properly for suiciding (T2 BCUs, arby torp launchers, torps, rest is mostly T1 junk) it'll cost you 20-25M minimum, and, yes, you can recuperate a bit of it by salvaging/etc - but priority is getting the loot out of there in the first place, so you may not be able to loot/salvage your own ships.
Sig removed, inappropriate link. If you would like further details please mail [email protected] ~Saint |
asjdkajskdjak
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Posted - 2008.07.03 12:33:00 -
[27]
Stop lying, everything is fine.
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Victor Valka
Caldari Kissaki Corporation
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Posted - 2008.07.03 12:42:00 -
[28]
Originally by: An Anarchyyt
Originally by: Victor Valka But sub-battleship warfare is where the most action should be.
According to who?
Me.
Didn't you get the memo? I'm the most authoritative source on the Internet.
(Common logic.)
Originally by: Roxanna Kell You are insane.
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Qui Shon
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Posted - 2008.07.03 13:05:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Malcanis
The ganker's time is NOT meaningless unless they themselves place no value on it. Unlikely.
The gankers time is meaningless, when compared to the time his victim spent aquiring the stuff, because the gankers time spent is so small as to be insignificant, in that comparison.
The following is not needed to validate my earlier statement, but here goes anyway:
Ganking is a PvP activity, that causes immense loss ot the victim. It is not comparable, and should never be averaged against PvE professions in isk/h or some other measurement. Yet some misguided people seem to treat is as a profession, that *should* be as profitable over time as missionrunning (I'd say it's clearly way, way more profitable currently), but they completely ignore the isk (or isk converted into time) loss of the victim, which usually dwarfs all other isk values in such an equation.
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Xrak
Black Eclipse Corp Band of Brothers
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Posted - 2008.07.03 13:34:00 -
[30]
Quite simply you should not get insurance payout on a ship destroyed by concord.
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