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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.10.27 12:57:00 -
[31]
Edited by: Akita T on 27/10/2008 13:05:37
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria Better watch out, one of these days someone is going to stick you in a crystal ball and sell you to the highest bidder
Ha ! I'll be the highest bidded, with a secret (fake) bid on it posted by a shell company, then proceed to collect the proceeds of the auction participation fees which would have been hosted by one of my other shell companies
P.S. If I were you sitting on a neod/thul stockpile I'd sell it in one or two week tops, before it crashes BELOW previous levels (new supply brought up by hiked prices), then re-buy it at the bottom (when people panic and sell stocks they have to "recover a losing bet") and sell half just before the patch, rest on the next spike (just to be on the safe side).
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Create a character || Fit a ship || Get some ISK |
Salisuka
Caldari 98.4
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Posted - 2008.10.27 13:55:00 -
[32]
Edited by: Salisuka on 27/10/2008 13:57:32 The dev blog is out.
Personally, I don't like the change one bit.
From the blog :
Quote: Let's take ferrogel as an example. Currently it takes 100 hafnium and 100 dysprosium to make 200 ferrogel. With the new reaction, you'll take 100 hafnium and 100 cadmium to make 100 unrefined ferrogel, which can then be refined down to give 10 ferrogel and 95 hafnium. The final ratios at the end of the process see you using 100 cadmium and 5 hafnium to create 10 ferrogel, per cycle. The proportion of hafnium stays the same, but the amount of cadmium is 20 times the amount of dysprosium you'd normally use per unit, and it takes ten times longer to make 1000 units of ferrogel.
Does he mean ferrofluid instead of ferrogel? Because 100 hafnium+100 dysprosium = 200 ferrofluid + other stuff = 800 ferrogel...
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.10.27 14:19:00 -
[33]
Originally by: Salisuka Edited by: Salisuka on 27/10/2008 13:57:32 The dev blog is out.
Personally, I don't like the change one bit.
From the blog :
Quote: Let's take ferrogel as an example. Currently it takes 100 hafnium and 100 dysprosium to make 200 ferrogel. With the new reaction, you'll take 100 hafnium and 100 cadmium to make 100 unrefined ferrogel, which can then be refined down to give 10 ferrogel and 95 hafnium. The final ratios at the end of the process see you using 100 cadmium and 5 hafnium to create 10 ferrogel, per cycle. The proportion of hafnium stays the same, but the amount of cadmium is 20 times the amount of dysprosium you'd normally use per unit, and it takes ten times longer to make 1000 units of ferrogel.
Does he mean ferrofluid instead of ferrogel? Because 100 hafnium+100 dysprosium = 200 ferrofluid + other stuff = 800 ferrogel...
Its a wonderful thing when they take a suggestion straight from the player forums. Anyone feel like dredging up that thread the few months after invention came out, and many here predicted the problem and offered this exact solution to it? |
Trading Bunnz
Equatorial Industires Dark Taboo
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Posted - 2008.10.27 14:56:00 -
[34]
Looks like it was a good play to me.
Caps dysprosium at about 20k on todays Cadmium prices, effectively removing it as a bottleneck, caps promethium at about 20k also on todays prices, again untapping supply (not that there was a significant supply issue with this).
The unlocking of the dysprosium supply side means we'll likely see both thulium and neodymium increase slightly. It wont be that much however, not to anywhere near the price where substitution would be viable. I'd expect these, not counting manipulation attempts, to level out somewhere around 1.5 times what they were. Of course, the sheer manipulation involved in the market right now means that people will pay what they are asking. Hell, its still profitable at 10k/u to react these materials and its still cheaper than the alternative now offered.
Unfortunately, as this is really only tinkering around the edges, I'd expect to see a big chunk of the value of the high end reactions start trending somewhat downwards, particularly Hypersnaptic Fibres and Ferrogel, given the cost of entry becomes significantly lower now someone doesn't have to stump up 5b for a weeks worth of dysprosium. Heh, without any required intermediate hauling and shuffling, you are replacing 1m3 of input materials with 12m3. Lovely. That'll stretch a few logistics lines enough that dyspro wont go anywhere near its 20k floating cap for quite a while.
Fermionic Condensates and Nanotransistors should hold steady, possibly even increase slightly, while all the rest will wait until increased quantities of Ferrogel in particular hit the market but increased supply will probably hold their prices fairly steady.
One prediction I will make that is now obvious to everyone, watch the spike on Cadmium. :)
I must admit, I was hoping for something far more ranging than this. Its great they took one of the communities suggestions, but this is just such a slapdash solution that I'm surprised it took them this long to deploy it. FRPB Shares in Default |
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CCP Lingorm
C C P
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Posted - 2008.10.27 15:04:00 -
[35]
Originally by: Salisuka Edited by: Salisuka on 27/10/2008 13:57:32 The dev blog is out.
Personally, I don't like the change one bit.
From the blog :
Quote: Let's take ferrogel as an example. Currently it takes 100 hafnium and 100 dysprosium to make 200 ferrogel. With the new reaction, you'll take 100 hafnium and 100 cadmium to make 100 unrefined ferrogel, which can then be refined down to give 10 ferrogel and 95 hafnium. The final ratios at the end of the process see you using 100 cadmium and 5 hafnium to create 10 ferrogel, per cycle. The proportion of hafnium stays the same, but the amount of cadmium is 20 times the amount of dysprosium you'd normally use per unit, and it takes ten times longer to make 1000 units of ferrogel.
Does he mean ferrofluid instead of ferrogel? Because 100 hafnium+100 dysprosium = 200 ferrofluid + other stuff = 800 ferrogel...
Yes it was a mistake ... the blog has been updated to ferrofluid.
CCP Lingorm CCP Quality Assurance QA Engineering Team Leader
Originally by: Lord Fitz Eve is to WoW as Wow is to an 8 player game of Unreal Tournament.
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Tiirae
The New Era HUZZAH FEDERATION
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Posted - 2008.10.27 15:42:00 -
[36]
Originally by: Viper ****zIe
Originally by: Trading Bunnz
Now, 1) could also affect 2) and balance out, but those betting on the changes dont think thats going to happen. Its equally possible that the demand side of the orphan r64's will see a huge boost.
Me, and the person who bought all the materials across empire, could be wrong.
I hope we're not.
How's that working for you? |
Arthor Dark
Gallente Dark Associates
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Posted - 2008.10.27 16:27:00 -
[37]
Originally by: Tiirae
Originally by: Viper ****zIe
Originally by: Trading Bunnz
Now, 1) could also affect 2) and balance out, but those betting on the changes dont think thats going to happen. Its equally possible that the demand side of the orphan r64's will see a huge boost.
Me, and the person who bought all the materials across empire, could be wrong.
I hope we're not.
How's that working for you?
Looks like dysp and prom went up 2x on the supply side of things. This should lower the price of those two, and increase the price of cadmium and the alternative for prom by quite a bit.
With lower prices for those, Thulium and Neod, I imagine would go up in price as people use more Dysp for building stuffs.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.10.27 16:28:00 -
[38]
One thing is for certain... its going to bring about some issues with the current sov mechanics. |
Salisuka
Caldari 98.4
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Posted - 2008.10.27 17:01:00 -
[39]
How do you figure any of what you posted Bunnz? I mean, do you really expect people to run 5 POS' all making ferrofluid from cadmium just to keep up with the ONE making it from dyspo? The logistics alone boggles my mind. And it's not going to anywhere near as profitable as running 5 advanced reactions.
I do agree with you on the price of cadmium (infact it's already happening in jita) and that the entry point for entering reactions has been reduced.
However, I don't see any serious producer of ferrogel switching to the alternate method, it's just not worth it imho. I wouldn't if I was them.
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Salisuka
Caldari 98.4
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Posted - 2008.10.27 17:04:00 -
[40]
Originally by: Arthor Dark
Looks like dysp and prom went up 2x on the supply side of things.
That's what it looks like but it isn't so. It takes 10 times longer to match the same output as 1 unit of dyspo and also requires extra materials.
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Niedar
MASS
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Posted - 2008.10.27 17:10:00 -
[41]
Blog says that there are 20x the amount of cadmium moons for example as there are dysprosium moons. Also says that it requires 20:1 ratio of cadmium to change to dysprosium. How long it takes is irrelevant because your not limited to how many towers you put up.
So yes theoretically it has doubled the amount, practically it does not because cadmium is used for other things and probably not all cadmium moons will be mined at least any time soon. |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.10.27 17:11:00 -
[42]
Originally by: Niedar Blog says that there are 20x the amount of cadmium moons for example as there are dysprosium moons. Also says that it requires 20:1 ratio of cadmium to change to dysprosium. How long it takes is irrelevant because your not limited to how many towers you put up.
So yes theoretically it has doubled the amount, practically it does not because cadmium is used for other things and probably not all cadmium moons will be mined at least any time soon.
Many moons, including cadmium are just there as sov and quick stops for jump points, etc.. and the moon minerals are just a bonus.
In this regard they just got a little more valuable. |
Arthor Dark
Gallente Dark Associates
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Posted - 2008.10.27 17:22:00 -
[43]
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 27/10/2008 17:25:45
Originally by: Blog
Currently it takes 100 hafnium and 100 dysprosium to make 200 ferrofluid. With the new reaction, you'll take 100 hafnium and 100 cadmium to make 100 unrefined ferrofluid, which can then be refined down to give 10 ferrofluid and 95 hafnium.
...
it takes ten times longer to make 1000 units of ferrogel.
Forget to edit that last ferrogel to ferrofluid?
I don't know that much about running a reactor, but if you get 10 ferrofluid per reaction with this alternative method, whereas normally you get 200 from using Dysp, isn't that a ratio of twenty time longer? (200/10 = 20) and not ten times longer? |
Trading Bunnz
Equatorial Industires Dark Taboo
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Posted - 2008.10.27 17:28:00 -
[44]
Quote: How do you figure any of what you posted Bunnz? I mean, do you really expect people to run 5 POS' all making ferrofluid from cadmium just to keep up with the ONE making it from dyspo? The logistics alone boggles my mind. And it's not going to anywhere near as profitable as running 5 advanced reactions.
To be clearer on my thoughts, I'll break my statements down for you.
...Caps dysprosium at about 20k on todays Cadmium prices...
Pretty obvious conclusion. Very basic, 20:1. Of course, it works out to be much more than that after factoring in time to market, increased logistics etc.
...The unlocking of the dysprosium supply side means we'll likely see both thulium and neodymium increase slightly...
Any increase, supply side, on dysporite is going to have a flow on affect to the other 2 r64's, given their usage. Directly, any increase in dysporite is going to lead to an increase in the creation of ferrogel and possibly fermonic's (direct Neo demand boost). Increased production of these, given the reaction step alone is worth billions per month pure profit, is going to lead to increased production that flows through the entire t2 chain, pushing this profit further down the line. (This will lead to an increase in thul)
I make the quite clear statement these increases are likely to be small. They'll also likely take a while to eventuate given the lag inherent in the t2 production chain and in the time to spin up reactors to make use of Cadmium to replace dysprosium.
...to level out somewhere around 1.5 times what they were...
Quick math, 50-60k is my expected target price for dysprosium within a few months, with significant increase in supply of dysporite/ferrofluid directly to market or contract buyers. This figure (quick math remember!) makes it cost effective for people to make dysporite/ferrofluid via alchemy but still deliver significant time and logistical savings to using pure dysprosium for existing chains.
This will equate to an unthrottling of the reaction chains. This price increase would be in line with seeing this dyspro price marker hit, an increase in consumption across all r64's and promethium hovering just under "viable to run alchemy" levels of about 25-30k. An increase to about 150% of pre-strike price for neo/thul is easily absorbed by the chains and as demand heats up, it'll slowly gather pace to supply extra Ferm's and Nano's to feed the lines.
...see a big chunk of the value of the high end reactions start trending somewhat downwards...
Supply was keeping these chains artificially restricted. Difficult/time consuming to setup, but absolute cash cows once running, now the biggest hurdle facing new entrants is removed. People doing their math will look at the numbers, see the billions per month they could make, and start making it, without having to worry about where they dyspro is coming from.
Some will move immediately to secondary items, those that use neo/thul. Some will move directly to tertiary, making the alchemical reactions for market/contract sale.
...I don't see any serious producer of ferrogel switching to the alternate method...
I agree 100%. I am certain we will, however, see producers enter the simple reaction market. Feeding 1 reactor to make ferrofluid or dysporite on a cadmium moon is no extra work at all really. Sov moons sitting on cadmium mines now pay for themselves easily, depending on the ingame mechanics involved in the reaction.
(the blog makes it sound like a bloody nightmare tbh. 2 outputs from a simple reactor? 1 of which needs to cycle back into the input silo? Assuming it is a simple reactor that is used.)
Once that flows through, I'd fully expect to see people setup reaction chains to take up this simple material from the market, and these people simply will not care where the supply of ferrofluid/dysporite comes from.
I hope that clears up my thinking for you? :) |
Chaos Incarnate
Faceless Logistics
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Posted - 2008.10.27 17:40:00 -
[45]
Edited by: Chaos Incarnate on 27/10/2008 17:42:18 I rather figured that the r64 buyout wasn't a good idea
Anyhow, should the average EVE player expect a significant drop in the price of T2 equipment and ships due to the change? I would expect the advanced materials to move around in price significantly, some up, some down, but generally down on the big stuff, which should lead to significant price reductions, yes? _____________________
The unofficial faceless Achura alt of EVE Online
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Trading Bunnz
Equatorial Industires Dark Taboo
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Posted - 2008.10.27 17:49:00 -
[46]
You know, the more I think about this the more unhappy with the change I am, and not because I wont see a large return from my stocks of neo/thul. CCP have failed to address the underlying value discrepancy in moon materials. In fact, they've done far worse.
Instead of levelling the field, they've pushed the dysprosium bottleneck down to cadmium, and on current prices/trends it will get used for this purpose, which will have significant flow on effects to all other products that use cadmium. In particular, given the nature of racial carbides, we are going to see significant price increases across all gallente t2 components, which will lead to a price discrepancy on all gallente hulls.
The better move would be to have not paired the minerals up. Simply offered 4 reaction prints for each on the same mechanic, which each used a different r16 metal to replace an r64. This would avoid the flow on affect that this will have on racial carbides. Worse, the racially affected carbides are for the second most popular race in the game.
You want another tip from the Bunnz bench? Buy Gallente, buy it now. :) FRPB Shares in Default |
cosmoray
Cosmoray Construction
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Posted - 2008.10.27 18:19:00 -
[47]
It may increase the amount of ferrofluid on the market as long as:
- Assume you own a moon with cadmium - 10 Ferrofluid per cycle = 7,200 units per 30 day month - Import 3,600 units of Hafnium. Use for 30 day month with 5% waste
Sales of 7,200 units of ferrofluid > Cost of POS + 3,600 units of hafnium
The logistics are not difficult if owning a cadmium moon, as you only need to import 3,600 units of hafnium. Won't be super profitable may increase supply to a certain degree.
Depends on how many cadmium moons are sitting idle, with no POS or being used for other reactions.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.10.27 18:58:00 -
[48]
Originally by: Trading Bunnz
You want another tip from the Bunnz bench? Buy Gallente, buy it now. :)
I think we'll see a surge, but I don't expect prices to surge that much.
There are a metric ton of idle moons out there, and the logistics of supporting them are usually already in place as many of these moons are used to sov purposes. |
Verite Rendition
Caldari F.R.E.E. Explorer Elitist Cowards
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Posted - 2008.10.27 19:02:00 -
[49]
Originally by: Niedar Blog says that there are 20x the amount of cadmium moons for example as there are dysprosium moons. Also says that it requires 20:1 ratio of cadmium to change to dysprosium.
Actually that doesn't seem correct. If 1 out of every 64 moons is R64 and 1 out of every 16 moons is R16, and furthermore there's a perfectly equal distribution of all moon types within their rarity class, then 1/256 moons are Dys and 1/64 are Cadmium. That would mean there are 4x as many Cad moons, not 20x. |
Clair Bear
Coalition of Nations Free Trade Zone.
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Posted - 2008.10.27 19:28:00 -
[50]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria One thing is for certain... its going to bring about some issues with the current sov mechanics.
Other thing's for certain. I didn't buy enough !$!@#$@#$ empire ice. |
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.10.27 19:33:00 -
[51]
Originally by: Clair Bear
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria One thing is for certain... its going to bring about some issues with the current sov mechanics.
Other thing's for certain. I didn't buy enough !$!@#$@#$ empire ice.
I missed the train on that one as well.. don't feel bad |
Niedar
MASS
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Posted - 2008.10.27 19:45:00 -
[52]
Originally by: Verite Rendition
Originally by: Niedar Blog says that there are 20x the amount of cadmium moons for example as there are dysprosium moons. Also says that it requires 20:1 ratio of cadmium to change to dysprosium.
Actually that doesn't seem correct. If 1 out of every 64 moons is R64 and 1 out of every 16 moons is R16, and furthermore there's a perfectly equal distribution of all moon types within their rarity class, then 1/256 moons are Dys and 1/64 are Cadmium. That would mean there are 4x as many Cad moons, not 20x.
That is not how they are distributed.... |
Salisuka
Caldari 98.4
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Posted - 2008.10.27 20:00:00 -
[53]
Originally by: Trading Bunnz
Instead of levelling the field, they've pushed the dysprosium bottleneck down to cadmium, and on current prices/trends it will get used for this purpose, which will have significant flow on effects to all other products that use cadmium.
Thats the main reason I'm not happy with this change at all. After a while, a long while, we'll see cadmium restrict the chain. Even though no material in eve is infinite, no other material is as restricted as any moon materials either. Basically, they've applied a band-aid to a gunshot wound. After all the debating, I was hoping for a more concrete solution like having 4 r16 materials make ferrofluid or something like that. Anyway, I guess we'll have to work with what we have.
And yes bunnz, thanks for that explanation. I had totally forgotten about the intermediate material market. :)
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Yuleth Gix
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Posted - 2008.10.27 20:39:00 -
[54]
Edited by: Yuleth Gix on 27/10/2008 20:41:07 THIS INJUSTICE HAS ME FURIOUS WITH ANGER!
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IonHammer
Minmatar Black Avatar Lost Sheep Domain
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Posted - 2008.10.27 21:51:00 -
[55]
jigging the reguirments may help some but in the end the current status with know db moon min results is akin to the t2 bpo auction.
Best step forward is to allow moon min invention of some type or call in terraforming where u use certain skills and items to change an moon output.
Now that would cause a change to eve. |
Roemy Schneider
BINFORD
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Posted - 2008.10.27 22:04:00 -
[56]
well i've posted my cents in the comments thread. it's up the same alley; a mess ignored for almost two years and now fixing it with something that doesnt do much if anythign at all. it'll be a tool to shut the crowd up about dysp-moon "injustice" for a few months until the same old same old bounces back. - putting the gist back into logistics |
Mr Horizontal
Gallente KIA Corp KIA Alliance
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Posted - 2008.10.27 22:31:00 -
[57]
This is a crap change.
It looks good at first and then as you begin to think about it, it gets worse and worse. After what, 5 hours since the blog, I now think it's an absolutely atrocious idea and can't see any possible benefit to any stakeholder in T2, be it alliances with moons, T2 producers, inventors or anyone.
It's upset me so much so, that I've raised an alternative solution to solving the whole moon problem...
Have a read and express your thoughts. Anything is better than this.
Chairman | www.eve-bank.net |
SencneS
Amarr Rebellion Against big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2008.10.27 22:42:00 -
[58]
So to relieve the pressure on the rare materials, they are going to bleed the common.
Guess what folks, a Small POS in low-sec mining something like Cadmium may be profitable now. Oh wait wait wait... I see a small problem here.
Cadmium is used in other reactions, so while people are buying the cheaper stuff to make more expensive simple reactions, it'll add a supply drain on those cheaper mats... Which will increase the price of every other reaction and component that uses it.
Lets take Cadmium.. It goes to make Caesarium Cadmide and Prometium. Which go to make Fermionic Condensates, Phenolic Composites, and Ferrogel..
Wait a second..... Ferrogel also takes Ferrofluid to make...
So let me get this stright... you'll be able to make Ferrofluid from Hafnium, Cadmium, which may raise the price in Cadmium which is used directly in the manufacturing of Ferrogel via Prometium...
So what is it exactly they are trying to achieve here? Because if they are trying to make complex reactions cheaper, I think they need to re-evaluate what gets used where.
Amarr for Life |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.10.28 00:28:00 -
[59]
I still think the change can work.
I like others having thought about it some more (read: While sitting on the throne) have come to agree with others posting before that the mistake was pairing the minerals together.
All this does is shift one bottle neck to another as demand spikes for the commons.
Instead of placing the alternative solutions and alt mat reacts at the moon level. Move up one step on the chain at the processed level, and make sure that these alternate mats are non relational. |
Viper ShizzIe
The Illuminati. Pandemic Legion
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Posted - 2008.10.28 03:06:00 -
[60]
Originally by: Tiirae
Originally by: Viper ****zIe
Originally by: Trading Bunnz
Now, 1) could also affect 2) and balance out, but those betting on the changes dont think thats going to happen. Its equally possible that the demand side of the orphan r64's will see a huge boost.
Me, and the person who bought all the materials across empire, could be wrong.
I hope we're not.
How's that working for you?
Working great actually, thanks.
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