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Casius Omega
School of Applied Knowledge Caldari State
4
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Posted - 2012.04.13 13:45:00 -
[1] - Quote
Just wondering and looking for input. This seems to be one mineral that hasn't had any real change in price since the new changes. Im sitting here wondering why?
There are two factors contributing to this and are probably obvious at this point. -Drone Region changes. -Removal of t1 loot drops.
Isogen from mining comes from only two sources in high-sec Omber and kernit, both of these are among the lowest isk/per m3. From the old blog from CCP telling us where are minerals are coming from it stated that 53% of isogen comes from loot and about 20% from drone regions. So with both of these effectively gone or nerfed to the ground isn't the supply coming in diminished dramatically? Also miners probably aren't going to be mining some of the 2 least isk making rocks. I realize there are vast stockpiles of this mineral but is it a wise long term investment?
I also noticed it spiked almost up to 170 iskp/u yesterday in jita before quickly going down.. as if someone bought ALOT of it.
Discuss |
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
238
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Posted - 2012.04.13 13:51:00 -
[2] - Quote
Casius Omega wrote:it stated that 53% of isogen comes from loot
Remember this part is largely indistinguishable from mineral compression reprocessing. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
167
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Posted - 2012.04.13 14:21:00 -
[3] - Quote
It's funny that people still take that old blog's numbers as the gospel truth even though it's hideously out of date. |
Casius Omega
School of Applied Knowledge Caldari State
4
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Posted - 2012.04.13 14:25:00 -
[4] - Quote
corestwo wrote:It's funny that people still take that old blog's numbers as the gospel truth even though it's hideously out of date.
no but its something to go off of. |
Casius Omega
School of Applied Knowledge Caldari State
4
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Posted - 2012.04.13 14:59:00 -
[5] - Quote
So does no one have any intelligent theories on future isogen prices? |
fugazii
Slippery Penguin
12
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Posted - 2012.04.13 15:11:00 -
[6] - Quote
Casius Omega wrote:So does no one have any intelligent theories on future isogen prices?
Iso Nox and Mex
Zyd is fools gold
and Morphite you can't move.
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Kalli Brixzat
8
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Posted - 2012.04.13 16:51:00 -
[7] - Quote
A lot of ship production does not require Isogen and/or Nocxium. This is especially true for smaller ships. Thus, because the demand for those mats is lesser than for the others, their prices remain steady.
This might change given that T1/M0 mods will no longer drop from mission rats. Since many mods DO require iso and or nocx, the price may jump. I've already started to hoard a good bit of the stuff speculating that the price will jump considerably with Inferno.
Just my opinion. |
Wukulo
Senex Legio Get Off My Lawn
36
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Posted - 2012.04.13 17:11:00 -
[8] - Quote
Tekota wrote:Casius Omega wrote:it stated that 53% of isogen comes from loot Remember this part is largely indistinguishable from mineral compression reprocessing.
Why would that be indistinguishable? Posted on main because I'm not a coward like the rest of you. |
Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
620
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Posted - 2012.04.13 17:24:00 -
[9] - Quote
Casius Omega wrote:So does no one have any intelligent theories on future isogen prices?
It's been as high as 120, long ago. Would not be surprised to see it reach that again. How soon, how long, if higher, who knows. |
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
238
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Posted - 2012.04.13 18:02:00 -
[10] - Quote
Wukulo wrote:Tekota wrote:Casius Omega wrote:it stated that 53% of isogen comes from loot Remember this part is largely indistinguishable from mineral compression reprocessing. Why would that be indistinguishable?
Because there is nothing to distinguish between a 425m Railgun I that dropped from a rat last week from a 425m Railgun I that was manufactured by a player last week. Carrying around the means of a 425m Railgun I popping into existence for the duration of it's life in a database field would be a costly database design. Once in existence 425m Railgun I's simply *are*. Recording the destruction of a mod however is a one time cost.
So we've recorded that our 425m Railgun I was not destroyed in a ship explosion but was reprocessed. However, whilst knowing that our 425mm Railgun I was reprocessed rather than removed from the database by other means we still have no way of knowing if it was manufactured from existing trit and then reprocessed as part of a mineral compression job or represents fresh trit being injected into the game. |
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Scrapyard Bob
EVE University Ivy League
860
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Posted - 2012.04.13 18:14:00 -
[11] - Quote
Casius Omega wrote:Just wondering and looking for input. This seems to be one mineral that hasn't had any real change in price since the new changes. Im sitting here wondering why?
There's simply not enough demand for Isogen compared to the supply.
This is *slowly* changing, as Omber finally climbed over 100 ISK/m3 this week (the other hi-sec ores are 160-220). But since a lot of folks have gone to Amarr regions to mine Pyrox, they snarf up the Kernite that is there at the same time and feed the Isogen glut.
It might finally catch up to the other ores in May/Jun/July - it depends on which ship hulls are "hot" and how much Isogen they require and how much existing Isogen came in from the drone regions or meta-zero drops.
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Immortis Vexx
Lupus Draconis Dragehund
3
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Posted - 2012.04.13 21:18:00 -
[12] - Quote
I had thought that 90 would be a cap for it but that was obviously wrong. It had bounced off of the 90 mark a few times but never really crossed it. Typically when one sees this sort of behavior and it breaks out of trend it tends to go kind of wild right? I wonder if 100 will be the next resistance level? Eve marketeer is failing me right now but according to eve-central it looks like demand is still ramping up. Thoughts?
Vexx |
Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
67
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Posted - 2012.04.13 21:42:00 -
[13] - Quote
Casius Omega wrote:Just wondering and looking for input. This seems to be one mineral that hasn't had any real change in price since the new changes. Im sitting here wondering why?
ISOIF
Look at the 90 day intrinsic price; it has changed. I'm not sure how much change you are looking for. I would'nt be surprise if it hits 150 in the future.
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Scrapyard Bob
EVE University Ivy League
862
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Posted - 2012.04.14 02:20:00 -
[14] - Quote
At 150, it pushes Omber up into the realm of "okay to mine, but not fabulous". Especially since Omber has trailed the other ores by a large amount for the past 2 years. My guess, assuming that hi-sec ore prices don't change much is somewhere in the 140 range, which makes Omber worth about 154 ISK/m3 while the other hi-sec ores hang in the 160-220 range.
The price of Omber vs Pyrox has run at around a 1.8 ratio for a pretty long time. So if Pyrox is 220 ISK/m3, Omber should be down around 120 ISK/m3 (which is about 105 ISK/u for Isogen). |
Moto Akimoto
Tengu and Cash
7
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Posted - 2012.04.14 03:09:00 -
[15] - Quote
Sometime around the Dominion expansion, I took about 200 blueprints originals and made calculations to figure out "fair prices" for minerals.
I arrived at two conclusions:
1. I could make a ton of ISK doing Insurance scams. 2. The mineral requirements for manufacturing versus the minerals in the ores where out of whack.
CCP smartened up and made insurance scams non-viable. But I believe Tritanium and Pyerite still makes up about 80-95% of the material requirements for T1 manufacturing. |
Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
620
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Posted - 2012.04.14 03:13:00 -
[16] - Quote
Immortis Vexx wrote:I had thought that 90 would be a cap for it but that was obviously wrong. It had bounced off of the 90 mark a few times but never really crossed it. Typically when one sees this sort of behavior and it breaks out of trend it tends to go kind of wild right? I wonder if 100 will be the next resistance level? Eve marketeer is failing me right now but according to eve-central it looks like demand is still ramping up. Thoughts?
Vexx
90ish, high 80s was the cap with the Pax being used. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
170
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Posted - 2012.04.14 03:46:00 -
[17] - Quote
Adunh Slavy wrote:Immortis Vexx wrote:I had thought that 90 would be a cap for it but that was obviously wrong. It had bounced off of the 90 mark a few times but never really crossed it. Typically when one sees this sort of behavior and it breaks out of trend it tends to go kind of wild right? I wonder if 100 will be the next resistance level? Eve marketeer is failing me right now but according to eve-central it looks like demand is still ramping up. Thoughts?
Vexx 90ish, high 80s was the cap with the Pax being used.
Pax didn't really "cap" isogen as well as it capped nocx. Only two units per book, into a much larger daily volume of use.
If you need further proof, nocx prices only really got to break-even on PA around mid-march and Isogen steadily rose throughout the entire time period, whereas nocx only took off once PA was removed. |
Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
620
|
Posted - 2012.04.14 03:52:00 -
[18] - Quote
corestwo wrote: Pax didn't really "cap" isogen as well as it capped nocx. Only two units per book, into a much larger daily volume of use.
If you need further proof, nocx prices only really got to break-even on PA around mid-march and Isogen steadily rose throughout the entire time period, whereas nocx only took off once PA was removed.
Fair enough, all depends on which side of the equation one stands. In the end they balanced one another at the PA price, the fulcrum, if you will. |
Bunnehrawr Rawr
Macabre Votum Against ALL Authorities
2
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Posted - 2012.04.14 20:18:00 -
[19] - Quote
it looks like iso is steadily climbing now? ...
I'm going to guess that its going to break 100isk/u over the next week or so if it doesnt lose momentum :S
not sure if to buy now <,< or wait :D |
Herping yourDerp
Federal Navy Academy Gallente Federation
482
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Posted - 2012.04.14 21:20:00 -
[20] - Quote
it was 80ea in amarr when almost 100 ea in jita... looks likeit can be profitable to buy in smaller hubs |
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Fish Hunter
Blacksteel Mining and Manufacturing Renaissance Federation
9
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Posted - 2012.04.14 21:32:00 -
[21] - Quote
So after this month main source of mexallon will be pyroxeres, plagioclase and kernite, kernite also has a fair amount of isogen relative to mexallon. This will forever keep omber as the step child since all it has is isogen and 90% of its value seems to be isogen. Isogen will probably slowly rise to around 150 where omber will match veldspar
On another note it would be fun if CCP started tweaking the screwy ore compositions and distributions to adjust mineral prices. |
Mookie Quantico
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
19
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Posted - 2012.04.15 00:28:00 -
[22] - Quote
Kalli Brixzat wrote:A lot of ship production does not require Isogen and/or Nocxium. This is especially true for smaller ships. Thus, because the demand for those mats is lesser than for the others, their prices remain steady.
Just my opinion.
True, up to a point. Small ships, by their definition, don't use much at all.
However, it's not the small ships that are key to the big "turf wars" in Null Sec.
You want to see where the minerals really go, check out the killboards of the high profile/major Null Sec alliances.
And in Null Sec, people would rather do *ANYTHING* than mine. Add to this the disproportionate consumption of ships relative to the population of Null Sec... they dont' have time to mine.
Said it before, said it again... the panic hasn't even started yet.
Mook
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